Ht t t d t Hot temperatures and storm surgggges: Modelling ... · Ht t t d t Hot temperatures and...
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H t t t d t Hot temperatures and storm surges: Modelling the change of g g g
climate extremesAndreas SterlAndreas Sterl
KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands
• Climate system• Climate changeg• Climate modelling• Climate extremes
• Hot temperatures• North Sea storm surges
Andreas Sterl, SEAMOCS, Malta, 17.03.2009
gHenk van den Brink, Gerrit Burgers, Henk Dijkstra, Reindert Haarsma,Wilco Hazeleger, Erik van Meijgaard, Camiel Severeijns, Hans de Vries
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Climate – what’s that?
Climate = statistics of weatherClimate statistics of weather
Weather = state of atmosphereWeather = state of atmosphere at a particular time
“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”
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The climate systemThe climate system
AR4 FAQ 1 2 Fi 1
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AR4, FAQ 1.2, Fig. 1
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How does the climate system How does the climate system work?
• short-wave radiation (sun) heats (tropics)
• atmosphere and ocean transport heat poleward (modulated by continents)poleward (modulated by continents)
l di ti i t l• long-wave radiation into space cools
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Radiative forcing
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AR4, FAQ 1.1, Fig. 1
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Greenhouse effect
Outgoing longwave radiation is Outgoing longwave radiation is absorbed in the atmosphere and radiated back to the surfaceradiated back to the surface.
without: T = 15°Cwithout: Tglob = -15 C observed: Tglob =
15°C+15°C
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Greenhouse gases
only 1 % of atmosphereH O 70 % < f db k ( 2 )• H2O 70 %
• CO2 15 %<= feedback (~2x)
• CH4 )• N2O ) 5 %2 )• Ozone, …)• (clouds 10 %) <= feedback (?)• (clouds 10 %) <= feedback (?)
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(van Dorland, 1999, p. 17/18)
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The past 159 yearsThe past 159 years
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Increasing
GHG COGHG concent
CO2
ra-tions CH4
N2O
SO4
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(IPCC, 2001, Fig. SPM-2) ++++
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Sim lationsSimulations<= multi model, all forcings multi model, all forcings
M lti d l t l f i
AR4, Fig. 9.5
Multi model, natural forcings =>
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Projectionsj
• Scenarios “How will the world change?”
• Scenarios => CO2 emissions and concentrationsconcentrations
CO• CO2 concentrations => climate
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Emission scenariosEmission scenarios
TAR, SPM Fig. 5
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ESSENCEESSENCE
• ECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI OM
• observed GHG’s – SRES A1b
• 1950 – 2100
• 17 runs => good statistics
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Global mean temperature
blue: ESSENCEred: HadCRUT3+14.3
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Temperature trend
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Precipitationp
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The N-year return value - 1
• value that on average occurs once per N years
( ) ⎪⎫⎪⎧ ⎤⎡ ⎞⎛ −− ξ
μx/1
years• obtained by fitting a GEV to annual maxima (x):
( )⎪⎭
⎪⎬⎫
⎪⎩
⎪⎨⎧
⎥⎦
⎤⎢⎣
⎡⎟⎠⎞
⎜⎝⎛ −
−σμxξ+=xG 1exp
(x):
⎪⎭⎪⎩ ⎦⎣ ⎠⎝
μ: locationμσ: scaleξ: shape
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The N-year return value - 2⎫⎧ ξ/1
( )⎪⎭
⎪⎬⎫
⎪⎩
⎪⎨⎧
⎥⎦
⎤⎢⎣
⎡⎟⎠⎞
⎜⎝⎛ −
−− ξ
σμxξ+=xG
/1
1exp⎪⎭⎪⎩ ⎦⎣ ⎠⎝ σ
defined for 01 >μxξ+ ⎟⎞
⎜⎛ −defined for 01 >σ
ξ+ ⎟⎠
⎜⎝
=> bounded by xmax = μ-σ/ξ for ξ < 0
return time T(x) for level x is 1-1/T(x) percentile:
( ) ( )xG=xT−1
1
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( )xG1
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Example: NetherlandsExample: Netherlands
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ΔΔμ
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ΔΔσ
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ΔTΔT100
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TΔT100 / ΔTmean
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Model biasT100(ESS)-T100(ERA-40)
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Dutch Delta Committee:
What is the effect of global warming on
• maximum wind speed• maximum wind speed• wind directions• wave heights• storm surge levels?
ApproachApproach
• KNMI'06 scenarios• other literature• other literature• Essence + WAQUA
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E WAQUAEssence + WAQUAEssenceEssence• ECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI OM• 17-member ensemble• 1950-2100, SRES A1b
WAQUA• storm surge model• storm surge model• Northwest European shelf• 8 km x 8 km• output every 10 minutesoutput every 10 minutes
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Will the wind change ?Will the wind change ?ERA-401971-20002071-2100
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Extreme windsExtreme winds
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ESSENCE winds
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Uncertainty present-day water levelswater levels
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Future water levelsFuture water levels
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Other stationsOther stations
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l iConclusions
large ensemble => good statistical basisbasistemperature extremes increase faster than the means faster than the means ...... and may reach dangerous levels within this centurywithin this centuryno change of surge heights along th D t h t b t the Dutch coast, but ...... sea level increases
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