How Not To Be Wrong
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Transcript of How Not To Be Wrong
When Am I Going To Use This?
The Missing Bullet Holes
Linearity
Inference
The dead salmon study
Expectation
If ________ is exciting, you are doing it wrong.
RegressionTriumph of Mediocrity vs. Galton’s Ellipse
Existence
More people want tax cut.
But no category can be cut
Election
The American Way: Bush Wins
But More people prefer Gore
Borda’s RuleScore 2,1,0
Borda’s Rule
Score 2,1,0
Solution: Instant Run-of
Australian and VermontInstant Run-off
Lef Right
Center
American way: W
Instant Run-of: M
Head-to-Head: K
There is no such thing as public opinion!
How Not to Be Wrong?
Just Listen to YourWife!