How Not To Be Wrong

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Transcript of How Not To Be Wrong

Page 1: How Not To Be Wrong
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When Am I Going To Use This?

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The Missing Bullet Holes

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Linearity

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Inference

The dead salmon study

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Expectation

If ________ is exciting, you are doing it wrong.

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RegressionTriumph of Mediocrity vs. Galton’s Ellipse

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Existence

More people want tax cut.

But no category can be cut

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Election

The American Way: Bush Wins

But More people prefer Gore

Borda’s RuleScore 2,1,0

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Borda’s Rule

Score 2,1,0

Solution: Instant Run-of

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Australian and VermontInstant Run-off

Lef Right

Center

American way: W

Instant Run-of: M

Head-to-Head: K

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There is no such thing as public opinion!

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How Not to Be Wrong?

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Just Listen to YourWife!