How do you play weak & strong draws?

Strategy: No Limit

► Weak open ended straight draws:▫ An OESD where you have an “idiot end” only gives you 4 outs to the nuts.

▫ If the flop is 2 suited, your outs are even worse.

► Weak flush draws:▫ If you have neither a nut flush draw, nor a 2nd or 3rd nut flush draw, you could be

“drawing dead”.

► Gutshots:▫ The advantage of a gutshot is that your opponents will sometimes “overlook” it,

because the odds are partially hidden. However, you only have four outs.

What is a weak draw?

► Non-nut draws with a hole card:▫ These draws are obvious and are not yet the nut draws.

▫ If you get action, you are often beat by one card draws.

► Backdoor draws:▫ Backdoor draws are hard to read for your opponents, but are also rarely

completed.

▫ But if you hit, you have very large implied odds.

What is a weak draw?

► One-card-draws:▫ If you are using only one hole card, you often have very strong

reverse implied odds.

▫ You are often dominated by the relative weakness of your hand.

► Weak flush draws & idiot end straight draws:▫ These draws usually also have reverse implied odds, but not as

high as one card draws.

▫ You always have the risk of being dominated.

► Gutshots & backdoor draws:▫ You have the largest implied odds with these draws, because your

opponents rarely think you are holding this hand.

▫ The weakest hands win the largest pots.

Implied and reverse implied odds with weak draws

Implied and reverse implied odds with weak draws

Hero (SB) $65.36BB $9.35

Preflop:

2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, BB raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: ($3,50)

Hero checks, BB bets $2.50, Hero??

Weak draws in multiway pots – example 1

CO $ 50Hero (BU)

$130 SB $ 80BB $110 Preflop:

2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises to $4, SB calls, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: ($ 16)

SB bets $8, BB calls, CO calls, Hero?

4 outs to the nut straight= odds 10.75:1

Pot odds on the flop = 5:1

EV (Call):

P (Queen on the turn) * EV (Pot with implied odds) – P (No queen on the turn) * EV (Investment)

= (0.085*90) - (0.915*8) = 0.33

Implied odds: (Pot on the flop + Villain bet + expected profit if hit) / (Villain bet) : 1

= (16 + 24 + 50) / 80:1 = 11.25:1

Weak draws in multiway pots – example 2

Hero (BU)

$65,36 BB$55,35UTG $60,85 Preflop:

UTG raises to $4, 3 folds, Hero calls $3,50, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($ 12)

Hero checks, BB bets $5, UTG calls, Hero?

11 outs (9 flush + 2 set) = odds 3.5:1

Pot odds on the flop = 4.4:1

Three reasons to fold:

1. An opponent could have a better heart card.

2. You are out of position.

3. You are playing with reverse implied odds.

► Weak draws are to be played depending on your opponent.

▫ You hardly have any fold equity against a calling station, therefore, you must react very carefully with weak draws.

▫ It is easier against rocks, TAGs or semi-LAGs, because they are capable of folding average hands as well.

▫ You should almost always make a continuation bet as a preflop aggressor.

▫ You should not be too passive – particularly out of position.

Weak draws in a heads up pot

► Sometimes you can play a weak draw with creativity.

► Never disregard the calculation of implied odds.

► The weak-passive technique is the best concept for multiway pots.

► In a heads up pot, a continuation bet is usually the best method.▫ In a heads-up pot, independent of your implied odds, there are also options

for floating or delayed bluff raises. (see article NL Gold “How to play weak draws”)

Summary– weak draws

► The implied odds differ upon the draw.▫ A straight draw seems less dangerous for an opponent than a flush draw.

► The implied odds vary according to opponents.▫ An opponent with a high “went to showdown” (WTSD) value will pay you off if

you complete your draw.

► The implied odds depend on the board.▫ If there is both a straight draw and a flush draw on the flop, your implied odds

decrease, because the danger is obvious for your opponent.

Implied odds – strong draws

Equity adjustment with a strong draw

Your handOpponent‘s

handFlop

Equities on the flop

TurnEquities on the

turnRelative loss

of equity

36.46 : 63.54 20.45 : 79.55 43.9%

32.83 : 67.17 18.18 : 81.82 44.6%

53.32 : 46.68 34.10 : 65.90 36.1%

► What are some reasons to fold?▫ You are not getting enough implied odds and a semi-bluff is out of the

question.

▫ You are probably “drawing dead”.

▫ Your draw is potentially dominated.

► What are some reasons to call?▫ The fold equity is not adequate for a semi-bluff, but the implied odds are good

enough.

▫ It is highly probable that your semi-bluff will be raised.

► What are some reasons to bet or raise (semi-bluff)?▫ You have a very high fold equity and the pot is already a good size.

▫ You have a lot of outs and you have a good equity against made hands.

▫ You are in position and your opponent likes to give out free cards on the turn.

▫ Your opponent frequently overplays his one pair hands.

Bet/raise, call or fold?

► Empirical basic rules:

▫ A minimum raise produces only a low amount of fold equity.

▫ A pot size bet offers a good price-performance ratio.

▫ An overbet often creates more fold equity than the pot size bet, but can very quickly become very expensive in comparison.

▫ The fold equity created does not increase linearly with the bet size.

How big should a semi-bluff be?

► You are out of position:▫ It is hard to get value out of your opponents if you complete your draw.

▫ It is often expensive to see the next card.

► You are in position:▫ Semi-bluffs often provide for success.

▫ You can have a free card more frequently.

▫ You can also steal the pot with busted draws thanks to your information advantage.

▫ If you hit your draw, you can get the maximum value out of your opponents.

Techniques

Strong draws – OOP in a raised pot without initiative

Hero (BB)

$240 CO$300

Preflop:

2 folds, CO raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero calls $8.

Flop: ($ 25)

Hero checks, CO bets $20, Hero raises to $60, Villain raises to $180

Hand range Villain:1. Overpair2. Two Pair3. Completed straight4. Strong draw

Scenario #1

Your equity against:1. Overpair (53% without AA)2. Two Pair (40%)3. Completed straight (40%)4. Set (33%)

Strong draws – OOP in a raised pot without initiative

Hero (BB)

$240 CO$300

Preflop:

2 folds, CO raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero calls $8.

Flop: ($ 25)

Hero bets $20, CO raises to $65, Hero raises All-In $228

Reasons for a raise from Villain :1. Villain has a strong made hand that

he is protecting.2. He is protecting a weak to average

made hand.3. He has a draw (semi-bluff).4. Villain is making a bluff raise.

Scenario#2

Your equity against:1. Set (33%)2. Straight (40%)3. Two pair (40%)4. Over pair (53% without AA)5. Top pair (53% with A kicker)6. Pair (60% without A

kicker)

Pfold: The probability that Villain folds.Pot:The pot before your all-in push.Stack:The smaller stack (from you or Villain).Dead money: Money that is already in the pot through

opponents who have folded.Costs:Costs of the semi-bluff.

Profit:Pfold * Pot + (Stack + Dead money + Stack - costs) * Equity * (1 - Pfold)Loss:Costs* (1-Equity) * (1 - Pfold) Total profit:Profit - lost

Pot = $110Stack = $240Dead money = $1 (only the SB)Costs= $208Equity = 0,4

Example 1: Fold equity = 0%Total profit= $109,2 - $124,8 = $-

15,6

Example 2: Fold equity = 25% Total profit= $109.4 - $93.6 =

$15.8

Example 3: Folded equity = 50% Total profit= $109.6 - $62.4 =

$47.2

Example 4: Fold equity = 100% Total profit= $110 - $0 = $110

Strong draws – IP in an unraised pot

Hero (CO)

$200BB$420UTG$150Preflop:

UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($ 7)

BB bets $5, UTG raises to $15, Hero calls $15.

Scenario #1

Your equity against:1. Set (42%)2. Two Pair (50%)3. Pair (55%)4. Random (66%)

Reasons for a call instead of a raise:1. Two opponents show strength in an

unraised pot.2. Only better hands will call you with a

push.3. A raise gives the opponent the

chance to push all-in.4. If you call and the BB reraises, you

could make the push.5. Your position promises a lot of value

if you hit and not a lot of costs for the next card if you don’t.

Strong draws – IP in an unraised pot

Hero (CO)

$200BB$420UTG$150Preflop:

UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($ 7)

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $6, BB folds, UTG calls $6.

Scenario #2

Reasons for a semi-bluff bet on the flop:

1. Normally nobody has hit the flop in an unraised pot if everybody checks.

2. You probably have more than 50% equity.

3. The larger the pot is on the turn, the larger your value bets can be.

Turn: ($ 19)

BB checks, Hero bets $15.

Your equity against:1. Set (30%)2. Two pair (32%)3. Pair (between 32% &

55%)

Reasons for a semi-bluff bet on the turn:

1. Villain is playing as if he had a weak hand or a draw.

2. Pot building for a larger value bet in case your draw comes on the river.