How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box Stephen...

How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box

Stephen Jascourt* UCAR/COMET at NWS HeadquartersBill Bua UCAR/COMET at NCEPGreg Byrd UCAR/COMET at UCAR

*[email protected]

How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast?

Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007

Fire weather danger over northeast Nevada?

NOAA/NCEP

NAM 48-h forecast at Elko, NV SREF 48-h probability [no precip, RH<20%,wind>20MPH,T>60F]

RH? Forecast T, mixing

depth

X Elko

How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast?

Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007

Position, strength of lakes cut-off? Frost potential?

GFS ensembles 72 h valid 00Z 11 Oct500 hPa 558 dm

NOAA/NCEP

NOAA/NCEP

NOAA/NCEP

NOAA/NCEP

2-m T oC 84 h valid 12Z Oct 11

NAM

GFS

UNMASKING THE BLACK BOX

8 years of NWP training

Navigation, how to find it1. MetEd site2. Operational Models Matrix

• Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models• NWP Course (conceptual background)• Model-specific information• Forums• Ensemble module

3. Case examples – what happened, why4. VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases5. COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, cases6. Seasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases

NAVIGATION MetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu

NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix

www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

NWP COURSENavigationpanel Content panel



Content is updated as models change!

MODEL-SPECIFIC CONTENT

NAVIGATION Discussion forums

MODULES Ensemble Forecasting ExplainedNavigationpanel Content panel

NAVIGATION Cases

www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/

CASES How Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis

Navigation panel Content panel


5-10 oC coolerthan first guess

nearly sameas first guess

Smooths out changesto first guess

NAVIGATION VISITview Teletraining http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_nwp.html

VISIT SESSIONS NAM-WRF Update and Performance Discussion Lake-effect heavy snow, why good forecast?

NAVIGATION MetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu

WEBCASTS Using the WRF Mesoscale Model [AFWA]

Lots of data shown, user challenged to explain, predict, and verify during the module

WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF Model

WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF ModelModel change summary and forecast impacts

WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF ModelPrecipitation type algorithm change: affects diagnosed type

WEBCASTS Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)

SEASONAL TRAINING Convective Parameterization“Convective Weather Refresher” under “Convective Weather” topic on MetEd home page

SUMMARY

8 years of NWP training

Navigation, how to find itStart: MetEd site www.meted.ucar.edu

Register (free), log inSelect NWP under TOPICSOperational Models Matrix (www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/)

• Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models• NWP Course (conceptual background)• Model-specific information• Forums• Ensemble module

Case examples (www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/)COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, casesSeasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases, content

VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_nwp.html

How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box Stephen...

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