Home Price Monitor January 2012

National Association of REALTORS®

Research Division

Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure

Highlights

• On a month-to-month basis home prices rose slightly in November as measured by NAR, FHFA, and CoreLogic’s distressed-excluded measure. Declines in November were measured by Case Shiller and CoreLogic’s full market index. On a year over year basis, small declines persist across measures in November within the range that has been typical of recent months.

• NAR data show a monthly increase for December and suggest that the decline from December one year ago is smaller than in the 2 previous months.

• New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels of construction and purchase activity.

• Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, comprised 32 percent of sales in a recent survey of Realtors—down from nearly 40 percent a year ago but slightly above the recently typical 30 percent mark. The seasonal slowdown in sales may explain the increase in distressed sales as a share of total sales even as the number of distressed sales remains largely constant.

• The increase in the share of distressed sales may lower reported transaction prices somewhat—especially as seen in the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indexes.

Outlook

• From a broad perspective, many of the same trends continue to dominate the

outlook. Low inventories, declining delinquency rates, and stable or increasing

foot traffic should help to support prices, though buyers searching for the

right home may have fewer options from which to choose. Very limited new

construction means that buyers initially searching for a new home may find

more selection among existing homes.

• Client pricing expectations may continue to present challenges. Data from the

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers show that sellers typically sold their

homes for 95% of the listing price, and 61% reduced the asking price at least

once.

• Affordability remains high and job hiring data is showing signs of

improvement. An improving economy coupled with affordability could

provide a needed jolt to primary residence sales. In fact, blue-chip economists

believe that a technical bottom to the market is at hand.

Home Prices

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

220.00

240.00

260.00

280.00

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

No

v-0

1

Feb

-02

May

-02

Au

g-0

2

No

v-0

2

Feb

-03

May

-03

Au

g-0

3

No

v-0

3

Feb

-04

May

-04

Au

g-0

4

No

v-0

4

Feb

-05

May

-05

Au

g-0

5

No

v-0

5

Feb

-06

May

-06

Au

g-0

6

No

v-0

6

Feb

-07

May

-07

Au

g-0

7

No

v-0

7

Feb

-08

May

-08

Au

g-0

8

No

v-0

8

Feb

-09

May

-09

Au

g-0

9

No

v-0

9

Feb

-10

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

Home Price Data – Year over Year Change

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

No

v-0

1

Feb

-02

May

-02

Au

g-0

2

No

v-0

2

Feb

-03

May

-03

Au

g-0

3

No

v-0

3

Feb

-04

May

-04

Au

g-0

4

No

v-0

4

Feb

-05

May

-05

Au

g-0

5

No

v-0

5

Feb

-06

May

-06

Au

g-0

6

No

v-0

6

Feb

-07

May

-07

Au

g-0

7

No

v-0

7

Feb

-08

May

-08

Au

g-0

8

No

v-0

8

Feb

-09

May

-09

Au

g-0

9

No

v-0

9

Feb

-10

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)

Home Price Changes

*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.

Data Series

Nov-11

Monthly

Change*

Nov-11

Annual

Change*

Dec-11

Monthly

Change*

Dec-11

Annual

Change*

Next

Release

Date

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes 2.0% -3.6% 0.3% -2.5% 22-Feb

NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes 1.8% -4.0% 0.7% -2.5% 22-Feb

FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only 0.8% -1.8% -- -- 23-Feb

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 -1.3% -3.7% -- -- 28-Feb

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 -1.3% -3.6% -- -- 28-Feb

CoreLogic National HPI -1.4% -4.3% -- -- Mid-Feb

CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 0.2% -0.6% -- -- Mid-Feb

New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price -2.4% -1.8% -2.5% -12.8% 16-Feb

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

Spread of Existing Home Price Changes Year over Year

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

Supply and Demand Factors – Inventory

Sources: NAR

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA)

NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)

NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months) (right axis)

NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis)

Supply – New Housing Starts and Permits

Sources: Census

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)

Underlying Demand – Job Growth and Hires

Sources: BLS

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)

Potential Job Growth – Openings

Sources: BLS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous)

Housing Affordability

Sources: NAR

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%)NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United States

NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (right axis)

NAR Payment as Percent of Income (left axis)

About the Price Data Series

Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data Series

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes

NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes

FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only

Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase &

refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime)

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10

CoreLogic National HPI

CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded

New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of Construction

Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor® board

data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops

WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value;

quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and

composites are 3 month moving averages

Weighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County

recorder data

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER