Home Improvers of Great Britain 2019 - Barbour ABI€¦ · home-improvement projects can be seen in...
Transcript of Home Improvers of Great Britain 2019 - Barbour ABI€¦ · home-improvement projects can be seen in...
Are householders moving on or sprucing up? A look at the trends in planning activity for households across the country
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Britain’s Home Improvers ReportAPRIL 2019
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ABOUT US…
Barbour ABI is an expert provider of construction project data and
market intelligence for the built environment, having a long history in
helping the community to grow its business.
We provide vital business support and insight for our clients
by continuously tracking and recording UK private and public
construction projects. Every planning application is recorded as well
as thousands of additional projects that do not go through the normal
planning process.
Our partnershipsOur reputation is built and maintained by our in-house team of market researchers who have excellent working relationships with planning authorities
and other relevant information providers, including Government departments. The quality of our data collection processes and existing knowledge in
researching and tracking construction projects is second to none.
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Hotel, leisure & sport
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Commercial & retail
Following a second successful competitive tender, Barbour ABI was reappointed as a partner of HM Government’s Infrastructure and Projects
Authority, providing the National Infrastructure & Construction Pipeline for up to four years.
Continued partnershipFor the last five years, we have worked with the government on the pipeline, presenting the data at key industry events in new and interactive ways, making it more accessible for the sector and public alike.
Interactive toolsThe NICP benefits from the full use of our interactive maps and tools, alongside our proven data collection processes and existing knowledge in researching, tracking and publishing construction projects, making us well placed to work with the IPA on this publication.
Barbour ABI is the chosen provider by the Office for National Statistics for Construction New Orders estimates data following a second successful
competitive tender, contributing key indicators on the health of the built environment.
Quality of dataWith the ONS continually looking to harness non-survey data to help improve its statistics, they decided that a better way to obtain construction new orders data would be to identify a partner in the industry, with their search leading them to us, thanks to the quantity and quality of our data.
Support and analysisAs part of our service we provide the ONS with quarterly construction new orders data, alongside the support and analysis to understand it effectively and how best to communicate it in a productive way for the industry and public. The information we provide gives the ONS a comprehensive picture of construction activity taking place currently and in the future.
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What drives households to spend on home
improvement will vary over time, place to place,
household to household. Many factors will influence
decisions. But using data we can gain insight into the
likely factors that will prompt when, where and which
households are more likely to improve a home.
Below we have isolated various factors generally
regarded as most likely to influence a household
decision to spend on home improvement. Using the
most recent data we see how potent these appear
to be at present and how their potency might be
changing, where and among which households.
This provides us with evidence on why the market
for home improvement is changing and a means to
interpret impending changes.
Underpinning most of this analysis is the ratio of
home-improvement applications made to the
number of private homes in each local authority.
Naturally not all home improvements need planning
permission and legislation has reduced the need for
many would-be home improvers to seek planning
before embarking on their projects. But a substantial
number of the larger home-improvement projects will
require planning approval and Barbour ABI captures
data on all these applications across Britain.
Exploring these various factors reveals how the
pattern of which households are most likely to spend
on home improvement is in constant flux, with
change shaped by the sometimes complementary
and sometimes competing forces.
The economyFig 1.1 shows how interest in home improvement
moves closely with changing economic activity. The
number of home-improvement planning applications
varies across the year, but the heavier red line shows
the four-quarter average number of applications,
which, as we see, tracks closely with growth in the
economy. The correlation becomes even stronger
if we lag the home-improvement applications
six months behind GDP, suggesting – perhaps
unsurprisingly – that growth in the economy prompts
greater interest in home improvement.
Logically this relationship will not hold over the longer
term or we would end up with infinitely increasing
home-improvement applications. But in the medium
term when the economy is growing steadily it is a
reasonable indicator as we see from the chart.
Over the past two years we have seen the number
of applications begin to stagnate and then decline.
This doesn’t necessarily corelate to a decline in home
improvement. Not all work requires an application,
what does need permission changes over time.
Furthermore, there is a variety in the size of projects
that require planning approval. But the decline in
applications is a signifier of change.
While the state of the economy is not the only driver,
the evidence suggests that home improvement is
sensitive to economic activity. For instance, the
weakening economy in late 2011 and 2012 shows
up in reduced applications for home improvement
in 2012. But the impact of economic growth will not
be evenly distributed between households and can
alter the pattern of home improvement between
differing groups across the nation. In previous reports
it has been noted that economic downturns hit those
reliant on income in terms of spending on home
improvement more than those with wealth, while
economic upturns tend to support more growth in
home improvement spend among those reliant on
income rather than wealth. This was evident in the
South West during the recession a decade ago. As a
traditional retirement destination, the South West
home-improvers market was more sheltered from the
recession than many other parts of Britain.
A quick indicator of how the economy might influence
home-improvement projects can be seen in spending
on other big-ticket outlay for households, such as
cars. Fig 1.2 shows a strong relationship between
car sales and home improvement. Work on home
improvement tends to follow car sales by about
nine months, providing one potential early warning
indicator. As we see, UK car sales peaked in 2016 and
have fallen since.
This indicator once again does seem to be a reasonable
herald of shifts in the home-improvement market, if
only in terms of the level of planning applications.
OVERVIEW…
What drives home improvement
60
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Qua
rter
ly n
umbe
r of h
ome-
impr
over
app
licat
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sand
s)
Dec10
Dec11
Dec12
Dec13
Dec14
Dec15
Dec16
Dec17
Dec18
400
420
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Quarterly GDP (£bn) constant prices
Applications quarterly moving average
FIG 1.1
GDP and home improvement planning applicationsSource: Barbour ABI, ONS
The impact of economic growth will not be evenly distributed between
households
CONTINUED
Home improvement is strongly linked to
the economy. A drop in applications is to be
expected
CAN BE KEYEconomy
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Overview
There does appear, not surprisingly, to be a relationship
between consumer confidence and the change in
home-improvement applications. Fig 1.3 shows the
GfK consumer confidence index nine months earlier
and the annual difference in the four-quarter moving
total of home-improvement applications.
The phasing of consumer confidence and decisions to
apply for planning permission will vary place to place
and over time, so the lag between the two is likely to
vary. Applying a lag of nine months provided the best
fit and this matches the lag we see with car sales.
House prices and land valuesFig 1.4 shows the average number of home-
improvement applications for every 100 private
homes in each of Britain’s local authorities over three
years against the average house price. The correlation
is very apparent and if we think about it not surprising.
The value of a home is largely determined by the land
value. So, the value of an improvement to a home
where land values are higher is likely to be far greater
for a given level of money spent. Furthermore, if house
prices rise faster than the cost of improvement work,
the financial case for improvement is increased as
the increased value the improvement provides to the
house will tend to be magnified. Rising house prices
also provide more capital against which households
might borrow to undertake larger projects.
The key point, though, is that house prices in most
places have a significant bearing on how much larger-
scale home-improvement projects are undertaken. This
should not be too surprising as the higher price housing
areas tend to be home to the better paid and wealthier.
We can see this in a different way by looking at the
relationship between the number of new homes
started and the number of applications submitted
for home improvement. Fig 1.5 shows the number of
home-improvement planning applications for every
new home start in each of the regions of England.
Both housing starts and home improvements can be
regarded as an expression of demand in a region. The
chart leaves little doubt that when house prices (and
by association residential land prices) are higher the
balance tips very heavily towards home improvement.
It is, however, worth noting that both these
relationships weakened slightly between 2017 and
CONTINUED… What drives home improvement
0 1 2 3 4 5 60
200
400
600
800
1000
Aver
age
hous
e pr
ice
(£’0
00)
Home improvement applications per 100 private homes
R2 = 0.6935
FIG 1.4
Home improvements and house prices by local authoritySource: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, ONS
CONTINUED
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
Priv
ate
hous
ing
RMI (
£m)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 20180
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Thousands of new car registrations
FIG 1.2
Car sales and private housing repair, maintenance and improvementSource: ONS, SMMT
Work on home improvement tends to follow car sales by about nine months, providing one potential early warning indicator
An improvement to a home where land values are higher is likely to be far greater for a given level of money spent
GfK
cons
umer
conf
iden
ce in
dex
Dec2008
Dec2009
Dec2010
Dec2011
Dec2012
Dec2013
Dec2014
Dec2015
Dec2016
Dec2017
Dec2018
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Change in applications (%)
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
FIG 1.3
Consumer confidence and change in home improvement applicationsSource: Barbour ABI, GfK consumer confidence index
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Britain’s Home Improvers ReportAPRIL 2019
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Overview
2018. This again may reflect shifts in the market,
certainly away from the more affluent areas of Britain.
Rural or urban?Even accounting for the slowdown in activity in
London, it remains the most active region for home
improvement, but elsewhere does an urban or a rural
setting influence the likelihood of the owner submitting
a home-improvement planning application?
Looking at data within regions, there is a variety
of patterns that suggest a slight tendency towards
areas with higher rural populations having a higher
tendency to submit home-improvement planning
applications than the more urban areas. But the
balance seems to shift over time.
If we test local authorities across England based
on the rural classifications, as we see in Fig 1.6*,
there is a strong suggestion that towns and cities
within significant rural settings, such as Bath, Lewes
and Lancaster, come out top. Urban conurbations
come second.
However, if we exclude London (Fig 1.7*), it’s clear that
the remaining urban conurbations, located in the
West Midlands and North, score poorly.
But the patterns are complex and relate to multiple
factors. But if we narrow the applications to those to
increase a home’s floorspace and plot this against
house prices as in Fig 1.8, we see an interesting
pattern when comparing the more rural with the
more urban. In rural areas there is a strong correlation
between average house prices in the local authority
and the number of planning applications for lofts,
basements or extensions. In the case of urban areas
there appears to be a very poor relationship.
So, while the pattern in urban areas is much harder
to fathom and driven by more complex relationships,
we can be more confident that there is a strong link in
rural areas between house prices and the propensity
of owners to enlarge the space in their homes.
Home salesEconomists who track construction generally accept
that there is a link between the number of sales of
private homes and the money spent on repairing or
doing up homes. Certainly, this tended to hold true
with sellers occasionally investing to make their home
more attractive and buyers of existing homes doing
them up before moving in.
Finding solid data to back it up isn’t that easy.
But as Fig 1.9 shows there has been a reasonable
correlation between home sales and housing repair,
maintenance and improvement as measured within
the ONS construction output data. This doesn’t
prove a causal link, both are likely to be driven by
wider economic activity. And the relationship of late
CONTINUED… What drives home improvement
Higher rural populations have a higher tendency to submit home
improvement planning applications than more urban areas
CONTINUED
FIG 1.6
Home improvements planning application per 100 private homes by ruralness*Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, ONS
*for notes on these box and whisker charts see page 31
FIG 1.7
Home improvements planning application per 100 private homes by ruralness (ex London)*Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, ONS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Rural Urban in significant rural Urban with city and town Urban conurbation
x
x
x x
Appl
icat
ions
per
100
priv
ate
hom
es
0
1
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Rural Urban in significant rural Urban with city and town Urban conurbation
x
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x
x
Appl
icat
ions
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priv
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es
0 1 2 3 4 5 60
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Aver
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hous
e pr
ice
(£’0
00)
Ratio home improvement applications to private housing starts
Scotland
East MidlandsWestMidlands
London
North East
South West
Wales
East
North WestYorkshire & Humber
South East
R2 = 0.856
FIG 1.5
Home improvements to private housing completions ratio and house prices by English regionSource: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, ONS
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Overview
does suggest far more improving than moving than
in the past.
Fig 1.9 shows that over the last couple of years we
have seen a faster rise in housing repair, maintenance
and improvement activity than in residential
transactions. Interestingly, in previous years we
have found that in local authorities where a higher
proportion of the housing stock had been sold there
had been a higher proportion of home-improvement
applications. However, this relationship appears to be
shifting, particularly in the hotter markets and is very
apparent when we compare regional data.
In last year’s report we found that a closer look at
the data suggested falling sales in some of the hotter
housing districts, but in many cases rising home
improvement. While there are multiple factors at play
when we see rapid increases in house prices existing
homeowners, while better off in terms of wealth, find it
harder to trade up. But the cost of an improvement will
have risen roughly in line with their earnings and the
financial benefits of an improvement greatly increased
by rising house prices in the area. This would shift the
balance for householders towards improving rather
than moving and weaken the relationship in the
figures between moving and improving.
There are multiple factors, both broadly and locally at
play, but as our example of Cambridge showed (see
2017 and 2018 reports), a rapid – near 30% – leap in
house prices in a short space of time – between 2011
and 2014 – sparked a rapid rise in home-improvement
applications. While Cambridge remains very active
for home improvement, the market eased as house
prices topped out.
This suggests that there are both positive and
negative statistical relationships in play when
it comes to the connection between home
improvement and housing transactions. The data
seems to suggest a more positive link in the early
stages of recovery, when more housing transactions
are linked to higher levels of home improvement. But
as the housing market becomes overheated and the
option to improve rather than move becomes more
attractive, there is a growing negative link with lower
transactions becoming more strongly associated with
higher levels of home improvement.
Household incomeHome improvement tends to be expensive, so a
strong relationship between the average earnings in
an area and the level of home improvement seems
natural and is supported by the data.
The more disposable income households have,
the more this should support home-improvement
activity. So, rising real earnings, a reflection of
a growing economy, should lead to more home
improvement, all other things being equal.
But varying incomes between households and
between areas will also help to determine who is more
likely to engage in home improvement and where.
The Office for National Statistics family spending
survey shows that over the past five years the top 20%
of households on the income scale have spent about
13 times the amount on home improvements than
the bottom 20% (Fig 1.10).
Fig 1.11 plots the density of Barbour ABI home-
improvement applications for each local authority
against average income. It illustrates the strong
relationship. Because of their exceptional nature
Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster have
been omitted from the chart. The picture painted
CONTINUED… What drives home improvement
The more disposable income households have, the more this should
support home improvement activity
CONTINUED
FIG 1.9
Home sales and private housing repair, maintenance and improvementSource: ONS, HMRC
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000Pr
ivat
e ho
usin
g RM
I (£’
000)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 20180
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
Thousands of transactions (England & Wales only)
FIG 1.8
Applications in England for extensions, loft works or basements per 100 sales versus house priceSource: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, ONS
Aver
age
hous
e pr
ice
(£’0
00)
Home extension, basement or lo� conversion per 100 home sales0 50 100 150
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200 Mainly ruralUrban with major conurbation
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@BarbourABI
Overview
CONTINUED… What drives home improvement
is of a clear link between income and home-
improvement activity.
This is no surprise as income will tend to determine
average house prices, so we’d expect to see similar
patterns. Interestingly though, finer regional analysis
plotting within regional markets suggests a strong
link between income and home improvement
within the East of England, South East and in the
West Midlands, with a much weaker link currently in
London, Scotland and Wales.
The strength of the relationship, however, seems to
migrate over time. In 2015 similar plotting showed there
was a very much stronger link between income and
applications for home-improvement work in London. It
was second strongest outside the South East region.
In the South West there seems to be a relatively
weaker link between average income and home
improvement. This is likely to reflect the large amount
of wealth coming into the region with households
migrating from high house-price areas in London and
the wider south. Wales and Scotland also seem to
display a consistently weak link, which suggests that
ruralness may be a factor.
But it seems reasonable to expect changes in the
strength of the relationship. Considering the wave of
activity that spilled from central London, this would
easily explain the shift in the capital. And similar
patterns are likely to occur in other regions.
PlanningPrevious reports, using Barbour ABI planning data
to measure the proportion of applications rejected
or withdrawn, have shown a link between rigidity
in the planning process and higher levels of home
improvement, which might well be expected. Since
this research was originally conducted there has been
significant change in the planning process and the
mood is that while planning remains a bugbear for
house builders, a tight land supply is not as big an
issue as it was.
However, it remains very probably that a link still
exists, as it is likely that well-to-do people are both
more prone to improving their homes and more
averse to new homes being built near them.
The original research showed, however, that the
link varied across Britain, finding that in London,
Scotland and the South West the correlation
between planning rigidity and home-improvement
applications is negligible.
Age profileOne factor that might help tilt the more affluent and
idyllic rural areas towards more home improvement is
the shift of the equity-rich out of cities and into more
rural environments. The average age of the population
in rural areas is rising at a much faster rate than in
cities, partly because of this trend, but also because
younger people are increasingly moving to cities and
larger towns for education and employment.
What we can see from the Office for National Statistics
family spending figures is that the big spenders are
those between 50 and 64 – broadly speaking these
are mainly Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and
1964. But as Fig 1.12 shows ten years ago it was
homeowners aged between 30 and 50 that were the
bigger spenders, suggesting that as the boomers have
crossed age bands the balance has tipped. And a
similar trend is happening in the 65-to-74 age bracket
as increasing numbers of the Baby Boomers retire.
Broadly speaking this generation and either side of it
were those who gained most from rising house prices.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 715
25
35
45
55
65
75
Aver
age
inco
me
full-
time
empl
oyee
jobs
(£’0
00)
Home improvement applications per 100 private homes
R2 = 0.5051
FIG 1.11
Home improvements and average income in 2018 by local authoritySource: Barbour ABI, ONS, ASHE
50.7%
22.2%
14.1%
9%4%
FIG 1.10
Proportion spent 2015 to 2018 on home improvements by households, by incomeSource: ONS Family Spending
Highest 20%
Second 20%
Third 20%
Fourth 20%
Lowest 20%
Ten years ago it was homeowners aged between 30 and 50 that were the
bigger spenders
CONTINUED
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@BarbourABI
Overview
CONTINUED… What drives home improvement
This provided them with money to invest in improving
homes. And in some areas this cohort is an important
element of the home-improvers market.
Perhaps of some relief is that spending among the
30-to-49 cohort appears to be holding up. However,
when discounted for inflation there has been a fall in
real spending by this group.
But for today the big spenders are most likely to be
between their 50s and retirement.
Population growthOne factor that should also be considered in terms
of the home-improvement market is whether
population increase plays a part. It seems obvious
that it might and indeed when we test at a simple
level of the region, we see that there is a very strong
link between the amount of increase in population
over a period of ten years and the level of home-
improvement applications in that area.
The Scottish recognise the issue of low population
growth and it is apparent in Fig. 1.13 that there is a
solid correlation with home-improvement activity.
Household typeThe shape of household, or more likely the changing
shape of households will impact on the propensity
of families to invest in home improvement. It is
generally thought that kids can act as a prompt. But,
do they? A new child may well prompt a move or an
improvement, but a new phrase has entered the
family lexicon – the boomerang kid. That is a young
adult who, after having lived independently for a time,
returns to live in the parental home.
The data are quite clear on this. There was an increase
of 28% in the number of young adults aged between
20 and 34 living with their parents between 2007 and
2017. That’s an extra 750,000. And the share of young
adults these represent has risen from 22% to 26%.
Without very detailed surveying it is hard to assess the
impact. Does it encourage investment in improving the
family home or does it delay planned changes in the
minds of the parents who had envisaged themselves
as empty-nesters? There will be a mix of responses, but
the surge between 2007 and 2013, which accounts for
most of the rise may well have faded.
Whether this is a possible explanation for the rise over
the past decade in spending among families of three
or more adults without kids is hard to assess. But
currently that group appears to be the big spenders
according to the ONS Family Spending survey,
see Fig1.14.
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
75 or over
65 to 74
50 to 64
30 to 49
Under 30
Average annual spend (£)
2016 to 20172017 to 2018
2007 to 2008
Appl
icat
ions
per
100
priv
ate
hom
es 2
018
Population growth 2007 to 2017 (%)
Scotland
East MidlandsWest Midlands
London
North East
South West
Wales
East
North West
Yorkshire & Humber
South East
0 5 10 150.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
FIG 1.12
Changing pattern of spending on contracted-out home improvement work by ageSource: ONS Family Spending
FIG 1.13
Level of home improvement applications and population growthSource: Barbour ABI, ONS
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Retired one person
Retired two adults
One person (not retired)
One adult & children
Two adults & children
Three+ adults & children
Three+ adults no children
Two people (not retired)
Average annual spend (£)
2006 to 20082016 to 2018
FIG 1.14
Average annual spend (£) by household type over years 2016-2018 and 2006-2008Source: ONS Family Spending
INCREASES APPLICATIONSPopulation
There is a very strong link between the amount of increase in population over a period of ten years and the level of home
improvement applications in that area
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Britain’s Home Improvers ReportAPRIL 2019
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@BarbourABI
Overview
The claim to being home-improvement capital of
Great Britain has this year finally gone to a district
outside London. Sevenoaks tops the national table
despite seeing a slide in home-improvement planning
applications in the year.
Westminster, Uttlesford and South Bucks which
were above Sevenoaks a year ago saw bigger falls in
applications. Indeed, in the top 10 only Chichester
saw a rise in its ratio of home-improvement planning
applications to private housing stock. This pushed it
up from 24th to 4th in the table.
Sevenoaks in many ways fits the bill for being a top
district for home improvement. It is a well-established,
well-connected commuter town with plenty of mature
housing in a leafy part of west Kent. Average earnings
are well above the national figure. House prices are
high and grew in 2018. It may not lead the way on all
counts, but it has been a steady high-performer in the
home-improver league table over the years.
Just five of the top 25, including Chichester, saw rises.
Three of these, South Cambridgeshire, Epping Forest
and Cotswold, were outside the top 25 last year. The
fifth, Welwyn Hatfield, rose from 21st to 15th in the table.
Windsor & Maidenhead, despite seeing applications
dwindle, managed to regain a spot in the top 25,
thanks to others in the South East experiencing a
bigger slip in applications. With fortunes fading in
many of the leafy commuter districts in the South
East, Mole Valley, Tunbridge Wells and Hart districts
all dipped out of the top 25.
The general trend if we look wider than the headline
figures was that the higher performers of recent years
have been the more likely fallers. Statistically, 72% of the
districts in the upper half of the national table last year
saw declines compared with 54% in the bottom half.
And the general message seems to be pointing to a
broadening out of the home-improvement market to
areas where it had been less present and from areas
where it has been highly evident. It seems that at
present and for the near future it will rest rather less
on conspicuous affluence and more on genuine need
and where house-price rises support opportunities to
improve homes.
To some extent and for many businesses operating in
the sector this shift in the market is perhaps expected,
as it in part reflects the increasingly familiar pattern
of wave of economic and construction activity
emanating from London and spreading to the regions.
This can be seen starkly in Fig 2.1 which compares
home improvement activity in Kensington & Chelsea
in London with that in Corby in the East Midlands.
While it retains a spot in the top 25, among the
more spectacular declines was that of Kensington
& Chelsea, which over the past two years has
seen applications drop by about 30%. From head
and shoulders above other districts for planning
applications and an epitome of affluent spending on
home improvement, it has slipped to 10th in the table.
Meanwhile in Corby in the East Midlands there have
been plenty of signs of home-improvement activity
perking up. The district centred on Corby, designated
a new town in 1950, was hit hard when its British
Steel plant closed in 1980. Today average earnings
are almost 20% below the regional average. In terms
of home improvement, in 2015 it was at the foot of
the regional table. Ranking 282 in the national table,
about three quarters of the way down, it remains
an unlikely hotspot for home improvement. But in
2018 there were twice the applications for home
improvement than were seen in 2013 and the
numbers over the past two years suggest strong
growth in home-improvement activity.
DISTRICT OVERVIEW…
Which districts top the national table?
While it retains a spot in the top 25, among the more spectacular declines was that of Kensington & Chelsea, which over the past two years has seen applications
drop by about 30%
CONTINUED
Kens
ingt
on &
Che
lsea
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Corby
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
FIG 2.1
Home improvement applications per 100 private homes in Corby and Kensington & ChelseaSource: Barbour ABI, MHCLG
DECREASE
Previous upperdistricts
Statistically, 72% of the districts in the upper
half of the national table last year saw declines compared with 54% in
the bottom half
Just five of the top 25, including Chichester, saw rises
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Districts comparison
CONTINUED… Which districts top the national table?
While London saw the most dramatic shift in fortunes
in 2018, its decline has been in train for some while
and it is not just Kensington & Chelsea in London
that has seen a collapse in applications for home
improvement. Hammersmith & Fulham felt a similar
near 30% fall in applications over the past two years.
Having been third in the table in 2014 and 15th
last time (2017), it now sits 33rd and has dropped
out of the top 25. Across London there was a fall
in applications in 29 out of the 32 boroughs. The
exceptions were Greenwich, which enjoyed very
positive growth along with Barking & Dagenham, and
Haringey which saw a more modest rise.
Looking outside of London it is not just the industrial
and former industrial regions that are seeing more
promise. Among the more intriguing big risers was
Babergh, sitting in South Suffolk between Ipswich
and Essex, which narrowly missed a national top 25
spot having risen from 51st to 26th. Its attractions are
clear. It’s a rural spot with pretty towns and access to
the coast. The data also suggests that mean average
earnings are rising fast and faster than median. This
hints at an influx of higher earners, which could be one
reason why house prices have risen 41% over the past
five years. That puts it in the upper quartile of local
authorities over that period for house-price inflation.
By way of contrast, the rising tide of home-
improvement activity outside of London in recent
years has lifted urban industrial and manufacturing
districts. In the North East the big riser has been
Gateshead. In 2015 it didn’t make the top 10 of 12
in the region. It now sits third in the regional table
behind Northumberland and Newcastle.
And of note in the West Midlands is the climb of Coventry
up the home-improvement charts, with applications up
by almost a third over the past two years.
In the North West, the district that perhaps catches
the eye this year is the borough of Manchester.
Although not in the region’s top 10, it has seen a 70%
rise in home-improvement applications over the
past two years. Admittedly this was from a low base,
but it hints at how fortunes can turn quite rapidly
in urban areas where regeneration and house price
inflation are strongly present. This seems to mark a
shift in the region’s home-improvement market, not
necessarily away from those in the rural idylls but
certainly towards the urbanites. The region overall
was buoyant in 2018 with more districts seeing home-
improvement applications rising than falling.
The rising tide of home improvement that has spread
out from London in recent years has not managed to
lift all districts.
The level of activity in Blackpool, which remains rooted
at the foot of the table, has seen little shift in the level of
home-improvement applications submitted. Stoke has
seen a tickle of an increase, but nothing that looks set
to shift it out of the bottom 25 districts.
Activity in Scotland remains stable at a low level, but
a recent dip in Glasgow sees it drop to the second
from bottom spot. Although Aberdeen proved to be
the biggest riser in the bottom 25 up 13 places.
Meanwhile, in Wales, the
fortunes of Blaenau Gwent
continue to wane with it
not just rooted to the
bottom of the Welsh
table but seeing ever
fewer applications for
home improvement.
Looking to the future
it is hard to gauge with
any certainty how much
further the wave might
spread, and which boats it
might float. Importantly too, while
we are seeing signs of slowing growth
and indeed recession in some of the
more prominent areas, the level of any
future decline is hard to predict.
But the risers and fallers in 2018
suggest that we might reasonably
expect to see continued
momentum carrying some of
the more modest performers
to new heights, some unexpected
hotter spots and some further
declines among those
which have ridden high for
many years.
CLICK TO VIEWTop & bottom 25 districts
TOP25
CONTINUED
The risers and fallers in 2018 suggest that we might reasonably expect to see
continued momentum
★
▼ RISES ABOVESevenoaks
Despite seeing a slide in home improvement
planning applications in the year Sevenoaks tops
the national table
The rising tide of home improvement activity outside of London in recent years has
lifted urban industrial and manufacturing districts
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@BarbourABI
Districts comparison
Districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
Districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
Rank District Region 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
25 Wolverhampton WM 0.8 0.9 0.9 5
24 Sunderland NE 0.8 0.9 0.8 -3
23 Tameside NW 0.8 0.8 0.8 1
22 Burnley NW 0.7 0.8 0.8 6
21 Aberdeen SC 0.8 0.7 0.8 4
20 Wigan NW 0.8 0.9 0.8 -5
19 Redditch WM 0.7 0.9 0.8 -4
18 Inverclyde SC 0.8 0.8 0.8 -3
17 Barrow in Furness NW 0.9 0.8 0.8 -8
16 Blaenau Gwent WA 1.0 0.9 0.8 -19
15 Gosport SE 0.9 0.9 0.8 -14
14 Knowsley NW 0.8 0.8 0.8 -4
13 Hyndburn NW 0.8 0.8 0.8 -9
12 Barnsley YH 0.7 0.8 0.7 -5
11 Kingston upon Hull YH 0.9 0.8 0.7 -10
10 North East Lincolnshire YH 0.8 0.8 0.7 -10
9 North Ayrshire SC 0.7 0.7 0.7 2
8 Falkirk SC 0.7 0.8 0.7 -9
7 Dundee SC 0.7 0.6 0.7 3
6 Renfrewshire SC 0.6 0.6 0.6 7
5 West Dunbartonshire SC 0.7 0.8 0.6 -16
4 Stoke on Trent WM 0.6 0.6 0.6 3
3 North Lanarkshire SC 0.6 0.6 0.6 -7
2 Glasgow SC 0.6 0.6 0.5 -14
★ Blackpool NW 0.4 0.4 0.4 4
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government
Rank District Region 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ Sevenoaks SE 5.4 5.7 5.5 -1
2 Westminster LN 6.5 6.2 5.5 -14
3 South Bucks SE 6.1 5.8 5.3 -10
4 Chichester SE 4.7 4.3 5.3 17
5 Uttlesford EE 5.6 6.1 5.3 -11
6 Cambridge EE 6.5 5.4 5.0 -16
7 South Northamptonshire EM 5.5 5.0 4.9 -6
8 Elmbridge SE 5.4 5.4 4.8 -11
9 St Albans EE 5.6 5.3 4.8 -12
10 Kensington and Chelsea LN 6.8 5.6 4.7 -25
11 Guildford SE 5.1 4.8 4.6 -7
12 Harrow LN 4.7 4.9 4.6 -4
13 Hertsmere EE 4.9 4.6 4.6 -3
14 Barnet LN 4.9 4.9 4.5 -7
15 Welwyn Hatfield EE 4.5 4.5 4.5 0
16 Three Rivers EE 5.0 5.2 4.5 -11
17 Richmond upon Thames LN 5.5 4.8 4.4 -15
18 Brentwood EE 4.4 4.5 4.3 -2
19 South Cambridgeshire EE 3.5 3.9 4.3 15
20 Epping Forest EE 4.2 4.1 4.2 1
21 Cotswold SW 4.5 4.1 4.2 -3
22 Redbridge LN 4.7 4.6 4.1 -12
23 Hounslow LN 4.5 4.6 4.1 -10
24 Windsor and Maidenhead SE 4.5 4.1 4.0 -7
25 Chiltern SE 4.7 4.5 4.0 -12
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government
BOTTOM
25TOP25
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
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Districts comparison
Last year we reported a further rise in home-
improvement planning applications but suggested
a slowdown evident in London was likely to herald a
wider decline across Britain. And, so it has proved.
There was continued growth in the Midlands, North
West and Wales, but all other English regions and
Scotland saw a fall in the number of applications
made for home improvement. London’s decline
accelerated. Across Great Britain there were 2.8%
fewer applications in 2018 than in 2017, see Fig 3.1.
Planning applications in London hit a peak in
years 2015 and 2016, with one application for
home improvement made in each year for every 26
private homes in the capital. Although the home-
improvement frenzy in hot boroughs like Kensington
& Chelsea was already in full flow. In 2014 there was
one home-improvement application made for every
13 private homes.
That bubble has burst and the decline in home
improvement in London has spread. Over the past
two years the number of applications has dropped by
almost 10%.
The decline in home improvement in London is
also picked up by the ONS Family Spending survey,
see Fig 3.2. These figures are indicative rather than
accurate estimates of spending by region, as they can
be quite erratic year to year. There is also a significant
lag between spending registering in the figures and
changes in the market. They tend to be more useful
in assessing the level of spend rather than change.
But they will pick up significant rises and falls in
the medium term. And, as we see, in London there
was a fall in average household spending on home
improvement over the past two years compared with
the previous two years.
Not particularly well picked up in the spending survey
as yet, but encouraging, is the strong growth in planning
applications in the North West, Midlands and Wales
over the past three years which continued in 2018.
The North West was highlighted last year as an area
of growth and has been the standout region over the
past three years. While the large metropolitan areas
centred on Manchester and Liverpool have seen solid
growth, there are individual boroughs where the
increase in applications for home improvement has
been very marked. The local authority of Manchester,
for example, has seen a near doubling of applications
being submitted over the past three years, albeit
from a low base.
The rise in home-improvement applications in the
North West fits with the vibrancy of the housing
market and rising prices. It is mirrored in the data
on home-improvement spending. The ONS data
show that over the past three years households in
the region have raised spend on alterations and
improvement in the region.
The growth in home improvement in the North
West appears to be part of the familiar pattern
late in the cycle of activity spreading out from
London and the greater south east while the
activity in the capital begins to wane.
REGION OVERVIEW…
How do the regions and countries of Britain compare?
CONTINUED
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Mon
thly
hom
e-im
prov
er a
pplic
atio
ns
Dec10
Dec11
Dec12
Dec13
Dec14
Dec15
Dec16
Dec17
Dec18
Applications 12 month moving average
FIG 3.1
Monthly home-improver planning applications and 12 month moving averageSource: Barbour ABI, MHCLG
STARTING TO FALL
Applications
Across Great Britain there were 2.8% fewer
applications in 2018 than in 2017
The decline in home improvement in London has spread. Over the past
two years the number of applications has dropped by almost 10%
5%
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Region comparison
CONTINUED… How do the regions and countries of Britain compare?
Putting to one side the lower base from which they
are growing, the relative strength of the Midlands,
the northern regions and indeed Wales is clearly
illustrated in Fig 3.3. The improved buoyancy of home
improvement in the north of England over the past
couple of years, however, did not stretch across the
border to Scotland, which continues to lag the rest of
Britain in terms of the number of planning applications.
Despite its low level of activity, the numbers remain
stubbornly flat. However, given difference in planning
law making direct comparisons could be misleading.
One, at least partial, explanation for the sluggishness
of home improvement in Scotland is its slow
population growth. If we look back at Fig 1.13, it
suggests quite a strong relationship between how
fast the population has grown and the level of home-
improvement activity.
Meanwhile, Fig 3.4 underlines how increases in home-
improvement activity corelate with rising house prices.
We noted last year that much of the wave of growth in
home improvement outward from London can be seen
in terms of both house prices and house price rises. A
higher house price strengthens the economic case for
home improvement, while also improving the financial
wherewithal of the household and the ability to carry
out the work.
The economic rebalancing caused by faster growth
outside London and the South East has not, however,
CONTINUED
East
North West
Yorks & Humber
East Midlands
South West
London
South East
West Midlands
Scotland
North East
Wales
England
Great Britain
Growth (%)
One year growthThree year growth
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
East
North West
Yorks & Humber
East Midlands
South West
London
South East
West Midlands
Scotland
North East
Wales
Average household annual spend (£)
2015 to 20162017 to 2018
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
FIG 3.3
Regional growth in home improvement applications over one and three yearsSource:Barbour ABI, MHCLG
FIG 3.2
Household annual spend on home improvements by regionSource: ONS Family Spending survey
One, at least partial, explanation for the sluggishness of home improvement in Scotland is its slow population growth
SLOW FOR SCOTLAND
ARE STILL KEYHouse prices
Population growth
A higher house price strengthens the economic case for home improvement
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Region comparison
Incr
ease
in a
pplic
atio
ns 2
016-
1018
(%)
House average price rise 2016 to 2018 (%)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Scotland
East Midlands
West Midlands
London
North East
South West
Wales
East
North West
Yorkshire & Humber
South East
done that much to close the chasm between the north and
south when it comes to the likelihood of a private home
being improved. In London there were 3.4 applications made
for every 100 private homes in 2018 compared with 1.4 in
the North West. In terms of how many private homes will be
the subject of a planning application in a year, the likelihood
in London is two and a half times that in the North West,
down from three times in 2015 and 2016 when the home-
improvement market in the capital was extremely hot.
London, the East of England and the South East still account
for 52% of all home-improvement applications, down from
54% in 2015 and 2016. Though we might reasonably expect
this share to drop further.
The general picture we see in the changing regional
pattern of home-improvement planning applications is a
continuation of the wave of house price rises that has crept
out from London and the South East in recent years. This has
pushed up activity in once weaker areas. But what we see in
this year’s figures is that the rises in these once weaker areas
are not enough to check an overall decline across Britain.
With London now seeing quite marked house price falls,
the question is one of how strong this effect will be over the
next year or two in dragging down activity in London and
undermining activity elsewhere.
Added to this concern, is the obvious impact of Brexit. The
uncertainty it has caused and will continue to cause as the
effects of any settlement begin to emerge will likely inhibit
households’ confidence. Some may choose to improve rather
than move, but much of the more discretionary improvements
are likely to be put on hold until the dust settles.
CONTINUED… How do the regions and countries of Britain compare?
Rank Region/Country 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ London 3.8 3.7 3.4 -10.5
2 South East 2.8 2.9 2.7 -4.1
3 East of England 2.7 2.7 2.6 -2.5
4 South West 2.1 2.1 2.1 -2.1
5 East Midlands 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5
6 Yorkshire & Humber 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.1
7 West Midlands 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.8
8 North West 1.3 1.4 1.4 5.0
9 Wales 1.3 1.3 1.4 3.1
10 North East 1.1 1.2 1.2 -1.1
11 Scotland 1.1 1.1 1.1 -2.2
England 2.2 2.2 2.1 -3.2
Great Britain 2.1 2.1 2.0 -2.9
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government
Home improvement across Britain’s regions and countriesNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN IMPROVEMENTS
Brexit
The uncertainty it has caused and will continue to cause as the effects of any settlement begin to emerge will likely
inhibit households’ confidence
DOMINATION STILL BYthe big three
London, the East of England and the South East still
account for 52% of all home improvement applications
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
FIG 3.4
Home sales and private housing repair, maintenance and improvementSource: ONS, HMRC
In London there were 3.4 applications made for
every 100 private homes in 2017 compared with 1.4 in the North West
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@BarbourABI
Region comparison
PROJECT TYPE OVERVIEW…
What types of improvements are households doing?
CONTINUED
While there was a dip in applications for home
improvement across all categories, the number of
applications to expand the size of homes appears to
have held up.
Roughly half of the applications made for home
improvement include either loft conversions,
extensions or basements, or a combination of them.
Home-improver planning applications cover a wide
variety of changes that require permission. It can be
hard to work out simply from planning applications
what this means for types of work being done. The
mix of applications is eclectic, ranging from lighting,
boundary works and flagpoles that require little
construction work to loft conversions, extensions,
basements and outbuildings that generally involve a lot.
The task of linking activity to the applications is
difficult because what needs a permission or what
doesn’t will vary from place to place – most notably
different rules apply in places such as national parks,
areas of outstanding natural beauty or conservation
areas. Also, rules change over time with regular tweaks
to the General Development Planning Orders (GDPOs)
which set out the permitted development rights.
Comparing like-for-like by local authority, region or
over time is, therefore, troublesome and so the figures
should be treated as indicative rather than precise.
Despite this awkwardness, we can glean reasonable
guides to trends by looking closer at the detail of
applications and what is becoming more popular and
what’s not and where. This we do below.
Though when assessing the data we need to take
account of possible changes in legislation that might
have a significant impact on the numbers, such
as the liberalising in England in 2013 of the rules
regarding single-storey rear extensions, allowing
larger extensions to be built without permission
between 30 May 2013 and 30 May 2019 if they satisfied
the requirements of a “light touch” neighbourhood
consultation scheme.
The impact of this change is hard to judge for many
reasons. It depends on how long it takes for people
to adjust to having the relaxation and on whether
they decide to put in an application anyway for fear
of wasting time going through the neighbourhood
consultation to end up needing to put in for full
planning anyway. Also, rule changes often throw up
unexpected consequences.
As we see in Fig 4.1, the data shows a continuation of
a strong upward trend in 2014, despite the relaxation,
although they suggest a slight dip in the data for rear
single-storey extensions over 2016 and 2017. Overall
the trend is upward, so it is unclear how the rule
change may have influenced activity. The main point
is that this form of home improvement remained in
fine fettle in 2018 as is extension work more widely.
The data suggests an increase of almost 11% in
applications for extensions in 2018. This however was
topped by the increase in applications for loft works, up
almost 13% on the year. Applications for basements,
not surprisingly, fell down a shade more than 15%.
The number of applications that included one of any
combination of loft work, basement or extensions
also rose in the year, up by just over 10%, with
applications for multiple types up more than 20%
suggesting a rise in more ambitious projects.
The data continues to show declining planning
applications for conservatories – down 9% in
2018 and down more than 40% if you compare
201420132012 201720162015 2018
Rear single-storey extension Other extension Lo�Basement
Num
ber o
f app
licat
ions
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Application with any or some
FIG 4.2
Number of planning applications submitted for types of home improvementsSource: Barbour ABI
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
10,0000
12,0000
14,0000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Lo� Rear single-storey extension Other extension
FIG 4.1
Number of planning applications submitted for types of home improvementsSource: Barbour ABI
Note: A planning application may include more than one type of home improvement Note: A planning application may include more than one type of home improvement
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CONTINUED… What types of improvements are households doing?
CONTINUED
applications over 2012 and 2013 with those of 2017
and 2018. We might put this down to more relaxed
permitted development and some of the drop may
well be. But the downward trend predates the rule
change. And, as we noted last year there has been
an increase in applications specifying living rooms,
which suggest a shift from conservatories to living
rooms. The rise in living rooms more than makes
up for the fall in conservatories. The data available
does not tell us how much of this may be down to a
descriptive change, with living room being used in
place of conservatory, which is one possible factor in
the shift apparent in the numbers.
About half of home-improvement planning
applications seek permissions to expand the usable
floorspace, extensions, loft works or basements. They
are represented by the dotted black line in Fig 4.2.
Some applications will be for just one type, others will
include two or all three.
Basements clearly are the least common and as the
figures show represent significantly less than one in
a hundred applications outside London as we see
in Fig 4.3. Extensions of one type or another are the
most common, with more than 60% being for rear
single-storey extensions. Lofts feature in about 10% of
applications. These proportions have been relatively
consistent back to 2010.
ExtensionsSouth Bucks tops the table for extensions on our
measure of applications per 1,000 private homes
averaged over the past two years, see Fig 4.5. And
looking down the list of top locations for extensions
they are all in reasonably easy reach of London,
although not in inner London.
And, as we see from Fig 4.4, in East of England,
London and the South East more than one private
home in a hundred has been the subject of a planning
application for an extension. In the south of England,
the chance of an extension is four to five more than in
Scotland, three time more than Wales and about two
times more than elsewhere in England.
The average likelihood across Britain of an
application for an extension being submitted on a
Region/Country 2015 2016 2017 2018
East of England 12.15 11.52 11.59 12.36
East Midlands 6.96 6.89 7.11 7.77
London 18.24 13.81 13.63 16.26
North East 5.24 5.15 5.31 5.27
North West 6.49 6.23 6.42 7.23
Scotland 2.64 2.55 2.67 2.64
South East 13.71 12.35 12.27 12.92
South West 7.72 7.31 7.58 7.99
Wales 4.22 4.07 4.10 4.62
West Midlands 7.33 6.94 7.16 7.79
Yorkshire & Humber 6.90 6.63 6.90 7.57
Great Britain 9.21 8.30 8.40 9.20
Region/Country Lofts (%) Extensions (%) Basement (%) One or more (%)
East of England 9.7 44.8 0.15 50.5
East Midlands 5.3 45.4 0.08 48.1
London 15.6 42.5 1.19 54.5
North East 5.6 44.6 0.06 47.8
North West 6.8 48.6 0.15 52.1
Scotland 6.3 24.3 0.06 28.9
South East 10.7 45.3 0.16 51.7
South West 7.4 37.0 0.11 42.0
Wales 6.0 32.2 0.05 35.8
West Midlands 5.6 50.9 0.09 53.7
Yorkshire & Humber 8.5 46.9 0.13 51.8
Great Britain 9.7 43.1 0.34 49.4
FIG 4.4
Number of applications for extensions for each 1,000 private homes by region Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government
FIG 4.3
Proportions of home improvement planning applications over the past two years stating each type of work Source: Barbour ABI
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CONTINUED… What types of improvements are households doing?
CONTINUED
private home in 2018 was about one in 110. Not all will
be built, but the figures suggest that there is roughly
one extension for every new home built.
Apart from a desire for more space and the wherewithal
to afford the cost, two big factors come into play that
will influence the likelihood of an application being
submitted for an extension. The available land to
extend into and the value of the house.
The first factor probably explains why it is only the
more suburban areas of London that appear in the
top 10 boroughs for extensions. The second explains
why it is well-to-do boroughs that populate the top
of the table.
About half of Britain’s housing stock falls within
boroughs with an average house price in 2018 of
£215,000. But these boroughs accounted for about
70% of all applications for extensions in the year.
LoftsIn contrast to a rather weaker showing for extensions,
London comes out very strongly when it comes to loft
conversions, with five districts featuring in the top 10,
see Figs, 4.6 & 4.7.
The reason for this difference in showing is obvious.
Loft conversions don’t take extra land, which is in
short supply in most parts of London. But to make
them worthwhile financially it helps if the house
prices in the area are high.
London dominates this market, accounting for a third
of applications across Britain for loft works in 2018. A
householder in London was more than three times as
likely to put in an application that involved loft work
than the GB average and, by way of contrast, almost
ten times as a householder in the North East.
About half of Britain’s housing stock falls within
boroughs with an average house price in 2018 of
£215,000. But these boroughs accounted for almost
80% of all applications for loft works in the year.
BasementsJust by looking at the top 10 districts in Great
Britain for planning applications over the past two
years it’s clear that basements make more financial
Rank District Region Applications
★ South Bucks SE 29.4
2 St Albans EE 28.7
3 Harrow LN 28.1
4 Chiltern SE 27.4
5 Redbridge LN 25.7
6 Brentwood EE 25.2
7 Three Rivers EE 24.8
8 Elmbridge SE 24.2
9 Hertsmere EE 23.1
10 Welwyn Hatfield EE 22.2
Applications represents the annual average number of extensions per 1,000 private homes over the past two years
FIG 4.5
Top 10 districts for extensions Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government
Region/Country 2015 2016 2017 2018
East of England 2.39 2.31 2.44 2.75
East Midlands 0.74 0.69 0.79 0.93
London 6.25 5.25 5.29 5.70
North East 0.66 0.61 0.66 0.68
North West 0.81 0.79 0.90 1.02
Scotland 0.75 0.64 0.65 0.72
South East 3.12 2.82 2.83 3.14
South West 1.40 1.35 1.48 1.65
Wales 0.70 0.70 0.76 0.86
West Midlands 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.90
Yorkshire & Humber 1.12 1.05 1.18 1.44
Great Britain 1.99 1.80 1.86 2.08
FIG 4.6
Number of applications for loft works for each 1,000 private homes by region Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government
London comes out very strongly when it comes to loft conversions, with five districts
featuring in the top 10
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CONTINUED… What types of improvements are households doing?
sense in London than anywhere else in Britain, see
Figs 4.8 & 4.9.
Despite a rapid decline in the number of applications
being made each year in London, the capital still
accounts for more than 70% of all applications, down
from 80% five years ago. And three boroughs in the
capital, Kensington & Chelsea, Hammersmith & Fulham
and Westminster, account for more than a quarter of
applications, although in 2013, as the basement boom
was gathering pace, they accounted for about half.
Less than 15% of applications for basements were
made outside of London, the East of England and
the South East. And 92% of basement applications
were made in boroughs where the average house
prices were above £215,000 in 2018, which account
for half the British housing stock. Almost 90% of all
applications fall within boroughs where the average
house price in 2018 was above £250,000.
Fig 4.9 illustrates the basement boom driven as it
was from central London boroughs and peaking five
years ago. There appears to be a continued interest in
basement work in London outside the three hottest
boroughs, and activity overall appears to be well
above the pre-boom level.
Rank District Region Applications
★ Kensington & Chelsea LN 3.5
2 Hammersmith & Fulham LN 1.8
3 Westminster LN 1.2
4 Wandsworth LN 1.0
5 Hackney LN 0.9
6 Camden LN 0.8
7 Richmond upon Thames LN 0.7
8 Islington LN 0.6
9 Lambeth LN 0.5
10 Hounslow LN 0.5
Applications represents the annual average number of basements per 1,000 private homes over the past two years
FIG 4.8
Top 10 districts for basements Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government
201420132012 201720162015 2018Rest of London Outside LondonK&C, Westminster, Hammersmith & Fulham
Num
ber o
f app
licat
ions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
FIG 4.9
The basement boom Source: Barbour ABI
Rank District Region Applications
★ Richmond upon Thames LN 10.4
2 Elmbridge SE 10.3
3 St Albans EE 10.1
4 Redbridge LN 10.0
5 Barnet LN 9.9
6 Brent LN 9.7
7 Kingston upon Thames LN 9.2
8 Three Rivers EE 9.0
9 South Bucks SE 8.4
10 Brentwood EE 8.3
Applications represents the annual average number of lofts per 1,000 private homes over the past two years
FIG 4.7
Top 10 districts for lofts Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government
Almost 90% of all applications fall within boroughs where the average house price in 2018 was above £250,000
BASEMENT APPLICATIONS ABUNDANT IN HOUSES WORTH
STILL DOMINATES BASEMENTSLondon
over £250,000
Despite a rapid decline in the number of applications being made each year in London, the capital still accounts for
more than 70% of all applications
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Despite a significant fall in the number of home-improver
applications in 2018, Uttlesford retains its crown as the hot
spot for home improvement in the East of England, having
briefly relinquished it to Cambridge in 2017. That the north
Essex local authority, which takes in Saffron Walden and
Stansted, consistently rides high in the home-improver charts
should be of little surprise. Large pockets of affluent residents
and a mature housing stock make it attractive to aspirational
home owners. It consistently ranks high in the national
table, last year second to Westminster. This year, nationally it
ranked fifth with home-improvement applications dipping to
5.3 for every 100 private homes – the lowest since 2012.
But caution should be taken when comparing with the past,
particularly in an area like Uttlesford where there are plenty
of large gardens. Permitted development rules have relaxed,
certainly making it easier to put up a garden building
without planning permission. Cambridge, which saw surging
house prices from 2012 comes one spot behind Uttlesford
both at a regional and national level with 5.0 applications for
every 100 private homes. Again, the level of applications fell.
The big riser in the region was Babergh, in South Suffolk,
which came in at 10 in the regional table and narrowly
missed a national top 25 spot.
Home-improvement applications in the region dipped in
2018 by 2.1% compared with 2017 to roughly the same level
as in 2016. This was slightly less than the national 3.1% drop
and significantly less than the fall in London and the South
East. East of England local authorities accounted for nine
out of the top 25 spots in the national table, with South
Cambridgeshire and Epping Forest joining the list.
For all that the East is doing relatively better than London
and the South East, the signs evident last year that the surge
of 2016 and 2017 in applications was likely to fade have been
reinforced. There were falls in home-improvement rates
across 27 of the 47 local authorities compared with 18 last
year and six in 2016. Overall there were more than 59,900
applications made in the region in 2018, which comes in
at slightly above 2.6 for every 100 privately-owned homes,
ranking the region third after London and the South East
and well above the British average of 2.0.
There appears to be a higher propensity for households
in the region to improve rather than move homes. In the
East of England for every 100 home moves there were 32
applications that included an extension, basement or loft
conversion submitted in 2018, which is ahead of the national
average of 25. St Albans leads the region with 90.
The Office for National Statistics Family Spending survey
suggests that households in the East of England on average
spent across 2017 and 2018 a shade above £1,200 a year
altering and improving their homes. That totals to about
£3.1 billion spent in the region.
Great Yarmouth, not uncommonly for a coastal town,
continues to sit at the bottom of the regional table, with
applications for home improvement showing a hint of a rise
over the past two years. Ipswich, Harlow, Peterborough and
Norwich took the four other places in the bottom five.
FOCUS ON…
East of England
East of England districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ Uttlesford 5.6 6.1 5.3 -11
2 Cambridge 6.5 5.4 5 -16
3 St Albans 5.6 5.3 4.8 -12
4 Hertsmere 1 4.9 4.6 4.6 -3
5 Welwyn Hatfield 2 4.5 4.5 4.5 0
6 Three Rivers 2 5 5.2 4.5 -11
7 Brentwood 1 4.4 4.5 4.3 -2
8 South Cambridgeshire 1 3.5 3.9 4.3 15
9 Epping Forest 1 4.2 4.1 4.2 1
10 Babergh NEW 2.5 3.6 4 32
3 East of England 2.7 2.7 2.6 -2.5
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG
made in the region for home improvement
APPLICATIONS
STAYS ON TOP
59,900
Uttlesford
of the regional table, but drops to fifth from second
nationally in 2018
TOP10
Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 a shade above £1,200 a year altering and improving their homes
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
32%
Babergh
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East of England
South Northamptonshire held its top spot in the East
Midlands home-improvement league, despite a second
successive fall in the annual number of planning
applications in the borough.
After three years of seeing more than five home-
improvement applications submitted in the borough
for every 100 private homes, the number dropped to 4.9
in 2018, well above the nearest challenger in the region,
Derbyshire Dales.
South Northamptonshire, centred on Towcester, has a
healthy stock of wealthy executive types and flourishing
families who continue to enjoy strong earnings growth
which will drive home-improvement activity. Again, this year
it is the only East Midlands region to feature in the national
top 25 listing.
Rutland, second in the regional pecking order last year, saw
some of the fastest declines in home improvement and
dropped below Derbyshire Dales and Harborough, which
both saw slight increases in home-improvement applications.
Across the region applications rose slightly to 28,800 in 2018,
up 2.7% on 2017 and up by 29% over five years.
There were more local authorities in the region that saw a
rise in numbers than a fall in planning applications for home
improvement. Despite this the East Midlands, averaging a
shade above 1.7 applications made for every 100 private
homes, ranks below the average of 2.1 across Britain.
When it comes to types of home improvement, the East
Midlands tends to score relatively lowly for applications that
would expand available space, relative both to stock and to
home moves. Although there has been a rise in applications
for extensions, basements and loft conversions relative to
sales over the past three years.
The region scores particularly low on loft conversions
compared with other house extensions. Regionally there
were 8.4 times as many applications for extensions than for
loft conversions. This is the highest ratio regionally apart
from that of its neighbouring West Midlands. And compares
with a ratio of 4.4:1 across Britain.
Mansfield lifted itself off the bottom and above Chesterfield
in the regional table, but both saw less than one home-
improver planning application for every 100 private homes.
The pattern appears to be that the more rural boroughs in
the region tending towards the top of the pile and the older
urban and industrial towns and cities nearer the bottom.
There are, however, hints that the steam is coming out
of the more rural areas, compensated to some extent by
more promising signs within the urban centres, with rising
numbers of applications in Nottingham, Derby and Leicester.
Looking at how much homeowners in the region spend
on home improvement, the Office for National Statistics
Family Spending survey suggests an annual average of
about £2.8 billion over 2017 and 2018. This averages out
at almost £1,400 a year per household on altering and
improving their homes.
FOCUS ON…
East Midlands
Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ South Northamptonshire 5.5 5 4.9 -6
2 Derbyshire Dales 1 3.5 3.7 3.7 2
3 Harborough 2 3 3 3.1 3
4 Rutland 2 4 3.7 3 -21
5 Rushcliffe 1 2.9 3 2.9 -1
6 East Northamptonshire 2.4 2.5 2.4 -4
7 Daventry 2.2 2.4 2.2 -3
8 Melton 1.8 2.1 2.2 13
9 South Kesteven 1 1.9 1.9 2.1 11
10 North East Derbyshire 1 1.8 2 2 5
5 East Midlands 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG
East Midlands districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
TOP10
Rural areas tend to be stronger for home improvement applications, but the growth was more from the larger
urban areas in the region
GROWTH IN
RISE IN 20182%
urban areas
In 2018 applications rose 2% to 28,600. They are up by
28% over five years
Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 almost £1,400 a year
altering and improving their homes
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
13%
Melton
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East Midlands
The turning tide for London’s home-improvement market
observed last year has ebbed faster in 2018. Applications for
home improvements were down almost 10% in 2018 from
the peak year of 2016.
There was a fall in the number of planning applications
made for home improvement in 29 of London’s 32 boroughs.
The most notable declines are in Kensington & Chelsea and
Hammersmith & Fulham, which over the past two years
have seen applications drop by about 30%. Westminster,
which tops the regional table, also saw significantly fewer
applications in the year.
If there is a hot spot in London currently it is Greenwich,
which has seen applications surge, but from a low base. This
has pushed it up the table and it narrowly missed a place in
the top 10.
The decline in home improvement in the capital was
first evident with a fall in the super-affluent boroughs of
Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster in 2015. But the
pace of decline has accelerated, and the effect has widened
to most boroughs.
For the first time in the survey we see the national table
topped by a district not in London, Sevenoaks. And the
spate of extravagant basement building that led to the
notion of the “Iceberg House” has well and truly passed.
Last year we noted that the inner London boroughs that
saw growth were towards the east, with Greenwich, where
house prices are relatively low by London standards, seeing
the strongest growth in the capital. This growth continued.
But the wave of activity in the outer boroughs seems to have
passed, except for Barking & Dagenham which saw solid
growth in 2018.
Overall the number of applications for home improvement
dropped by 7.7% in 2018 to 91,500, having peaked above
100,000 two years earlier. But applications are still well
above the levels seen before 2014 and still represents
about one fifth of all applications in Britain. And with 3.4
applications for each private home, London still by far
provides the richest vein for home-improvement work.
For all its decline, London remains highly active, especially
for those who convert lofts. The chances of an application
for a loft conversion to a private home is still about three
time that elsewhere. With the current hotspot being
Richmond upon Thames. And about three quarters of
basement applications are in London.
The Office for National Statistics Family Spending survey
reinforces the fact that Londoner’s remain big home-
improvement spenders. London is a huge market. It suggests
the total spend by London households annually on home
improvements averaged £6.7 billion over 2017 and 2018, based
on an average yearly spend of almost £2,100 per household.
FOCUS ON…
London
Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ Westminster 6.5 6.2 5.5 -14
2 Kensington and Chelsea 6.8 5.6 4.7 -25
3 Harrow 4.7 4.9 4.6 -4
4 Barnet 4.9 4.9 4.5 -7
5 Richmond upon Thames 5.5 4.8 4.4 -15
6 Redbridge 1 4.7 4.6 4.1 -12
7 Hounslow 1 4.5 4.6 4.1 -10
8 Hackney NEW 3.7 3.9 3.8 0
9 Hammersmith and Fulham 3 5.3 4.7 3.7 -25
10 Brent 1 4.1 4.2 3.7 -11
★ London 3.8 3.7 3.4 -10.5
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG
London districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
TOP10
submitted to London planning authorities last year for home improvements, about one in five across Great Britain
MORE THAN
APPLICATIONS91,000
SAW A DECLINE
29 London boroughs
in home improvement planning applications in
2018, meaning only 3 saw an increase
Households in London on average across 2017 and 2018 spent almost £2,100 a year altering and improving their homes, amounting to a £6.7 billion annual spend across the region
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
0%
Hackney
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London
Despite seeing no growth in applications in 2018, the district
of Northumberland continued to hold its place atop the list
of boroughs in the home-improvement league for the North
East. Its lead widened as a surge in applications in 2016 and
2017 in Newcastle faded.
The North East however is the weakest English region
for home improvement. There were 1.2 applications for
home improvement in 2018 for every 100 private homes,
compared with 2.0 for Britain as a whole. Even its top-
ranked district sits outside the top 50% of local authorities
for home improvement.
Having seen a steady rise since 2013 with strong growth
last year, there was a decline in the number of planning
applications submitted for home improvement in 2018,
down 2.7% on 2017.
Despite the North East tending to have an older age group
than the UK average, which in some regions suggests higher
levels of home improvement, the powerful drivers are average
earnings and house prices. Both are relatively low in the North
East, which explains much of the relatively low level of home
improvement. Low house prices and a dip, at least in real
terms, over the past year appears to have stalled what was a
gently rising trend in home improvement over recent years.
The big riser in the region is Gateshead, which rose to third
in the table, with applications up by about a fifth. This may
have been expected given the focus on regeneration in the
area, which has, among other things, supported house price
growth. It is noteworthy that in Gateshead more than any
other district in the region the number of applications for loft
conversions and house extensions for every 100 house moves
is currently the highest, with homeowners less readily selling.
In 2018, regionally, the North East, relative to the size of
the private housing stock, was the least likely to see an
application for a loft conversion. You were more than eight
times as likely to see an application for a loft conversion
in London than the North East and one and a half times
as likely in the North West. This is in keeping with low land
values in the region.
Despite the dip in applications overall for home
improvement, the number for extensions held up. This
is particularly positive given the more relaxed rules on
permitted development.
Spending on home improvements in the region, although
well below the national average, had been stronger in
2016 and 2017. However, it dipped in 2018. The average
household in the region spent just above £700 a year
on home improvements annually across 2017 and 2018,
according to the Office of National Statistics Family
Spending survey. This suggests a total annual spend by
households in the North East on altering and improving
homes of about £860 million.
Sunderland, which in 2018 had the lowest average earnings
in the region, continues to be firmly rooted to the bottom of
the table.
FOCUS ON…
North East
Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ Northumberland 1.6 1.8 1.8 5
2 Newcastle upon Tyne 1.5 1.7 1.5 -5
3 Gateshead 6 0.9 1 1.2 26
4 North Tyneside 1 1.4 1.3 1.2 -11
5 Darlington 1.1 1.2 1.1 -2
6 Stockton on Tees 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1
7 South Tyneside 3 1.3 1.2 1 -18
8 Durham 1 1 1 -2
9 Middlesbrough NEW 1 0.9 1 0
10 Redcar and Cleveland 0.9 1 0.9 -2
10 North East 1.1 1.2 1.2 -1.1
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG
North East districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
TOP10
IN APPLICATIONSGrowth faded
Still at the bottom of the regional ranking in England, a lift in home
improvement planning applications in 2016 and 2017 faded in 2018
Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 just above £700 a
year altering and improving their homes, producing an annual spend across the
region of £860 million
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
IS THE BIG RISERGateshead
climbing 6 places to 3rd in the North East’s table
26% Gateshead
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North East
Trafford and Ribble Valley continue to top the home
improvers chart in the North West, but with Trafford edging
further ahead over the past couple of years as home
improvement in more urban areas has risen on the back of
rising house prices.
The confidence to invest in the building stock, particularly in
Greater Manchester, in recent years has elevated the region
to the fastest growing for home improvement applications
over the past three years. Despite this the number received
for every 100 private homes in the North West is just 1.4,
well below the average of 2.0 across Britain. In England only
the North East has a lower ratio of home-improvement
applications per 100 private homes. Overall, the total number
of applications for the region was just over 37,500 in 2018.
The tussle at the top between Ribble Valley and Trafford
illustrates the turning tides we see in home improvement
and reflects the different drivers of home-improvement
activity. Ribble Valley reflects the push for home
improvement among wealthier and generally more mature
households living in rural and picturesque spots. In the
North West these would include the likes of Eden and
South Lakeland. Trafford represents the impetus for home
improvement among younger urban households driven by
rising house prices and incomes. Currently the surge is with
the urbanites.
This is nowhere better seen in the region than in Manchester
borough. Although not in the top 10 places in the region, it
has seen a 70% rise in home-improvement applications over
the past two years. Admittedly this was from a low base, but
it hints at how fortunes can turn quite rapidly in urban areas
with regeneration and house-price inflation. House prices in
the district grew 16% over the past two years, faster than in
any other district in the region.
The surge in activity in the North West, epitomised by areas
of Greater Manchester, has supported the strongest growth
in the north of England for loft improvements, up more than
30% in the North West between 2016 and 2018.
Meanwhile, Blackpool continues to be the most stubbornly
weak area for home improvement, yet again holding up
both the regional and the national tables. House prices have
still to reach their pre-recession level and in real terms show
little sign of growth. At just one application made each year
for home improvements for every 250 private homes it sits
well below Hyndburn in the region and comfortably ranks
the lowest rate in Britain.
In terms of average spend per household, although still
just below the national average, the figures from the Office
for National Statistics Family Spending survey suggest
spending was solid in 2018. They suggest the average
household in 2017 and 2018, including renters, spent almost
£1,300 annually on home improvements. That makes the
estimated market for home improvements in the North
West worth about £3.9 billion.
FOCUS ON…
North West
Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ Trafford 2.2 2.5 2.6 11
2 Ribble Valley 2.3 2.4 2.5 6
3 Cheshire East 1 1.9 2.2 2.3 14
4 Eden 1 2.3 2.4 2.3 -2
5 South Lakeland 2 2 2.1 8
6 West Lancashire 1.9 1.9 2 4
7 Fylde 1 1.5 1.9 1.9 11
8 Stockport 1 1.7 1.9 1.9 2
9 Lancaster NEW 1.8 1.8 1.9 4
10 Cheshire West and Chester 1 1.9 1.8 1.8 -4
8 North West 1.3 1.4 1.4 5.0
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG
North West districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
TOP10
made in the region for home improvement
MORE THAN
APPLICATIONS37,400
Regionally, over the past three years the North West has seen the greatest growth in home improvement,
with applications up 15%
Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 almost £1,300 a year
altering and improving their homes
ON AVERAGE OVER PREVIOUS 3 YEARS15% increase
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
14%
Cheshire East
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North West
East Lothian is back on top of the Scottish home-
improvement league table for 2018, nudging back ahead of
Argyle & Bute, with both seeing slight rises in the number of
home-improvement applications submitted in the year.
However, although they top the Scottish table, East Lothian
sees 2.1 home-improvement applications per 100 private
homes and Argyle & Bute just 2.0 against the 2.0 average
across Britain.
So, most local authorities sit well below that British
average and Scotland overall scores below every English
region and Wales on this count. It has seen applications
gently but steadily decline since 2014. It must, however,
be borne in mind that housing and planning are
devolved responsibilities, so caution should be taken
over comparisons as differences in the regulations and
interpretations of permitted development will affect
whether people make applications.
However, the Office of National Statistics Family Spending
survey does support the view that home improvement has
waned in Scotland in recent years. The average spending
on home improvements by households in Scotland, while
lower than in the North East and Wales, is well below the
average across Great Britain and has declined since 2015.
The figures suggest that households spent on average about
£760 annually across 2017 and 2018, amounting to a total
annual spend across the nation on home improvements of
£1.9 billion.
With differences in the planning regulations, caution should
be taken in making comparisons with the rest of Britain. But
the relatively low level of home-improvement spending will
reflect the lower house prices, the lowest outside the North
East. The relatively slow population growth in Scotland over
the past 10 years will be a further factor.
Scots households appear to be four times less likely to
improve rather than move. This may say something about
the relative ease of buying and selling homes in Scotland.
But what the numbers show is that for every 100 home
sales there are just over six applications for loft work, home
extensions or basements. This compares with an average
across Britain of about 25.
Given that much of the home-improvement activity is in rural
Scotland where homes are substantially bigger, it seems
reasonable that the desire to increase the floor area may well
be lower. Furthermore, house prices are low relative to most
parts of Britain, so the financial benefits are much weaker.
The overall number of home-improvement applications was
about 21,500 in 2018, down slightly on 2017.
Across much of Britain, outside the shadow of London,
home-improvement activity tends to be more prevalent in
less urban areas. This is very evident in Scotland, where the
top districts for home improvement are heavily weighted to
rural or semi-rural areas. So, the fact that Glasgow sits at the
bottom of the table in Scotland might be expected.
FOCUS ON…
Scotland
Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ East Lothian 1 2 1.9 2.1 6
2 Argyll and Bute 1 1.9 2 2 4
3 East Renfrewshire 1 1.7 1.7 1.7 -1
4 Stirling 1 1.6 1.8 1.6 -5
5 East Dunbartonshire 1.4 1.6 1.6 6
6 Scottish Borders 1.4 1.5 1.5 2
7 Perth and Kinross 2 1.5 1.4 1.4 -3
8 Edinburgh 2 1.4 1.4 1.4 -1
9 Fife 2 1.4 1.4 1.4 -5
10 Western Isles NEW 1.3 1.2 1.4 9
11 Scotland 1.1 1.1 1.1 -2.2
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, Scottish Government
Scotland districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
TOP10
Home improvement tends to be more prevalent in less
urban areas in Scotland
LESS LIKELY
STRONGER IN
Improvements
Less urban areas
Scotland appears to be the least likely part of Britain for homeowners to
improve rather than move
Scottish households on average spent across 2017 and 2018 about £760 a year altering and
improving their homes, which amounts to about £2 billion across the nation
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
9%
Western Isles
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Scotland
Sevenoaks has topped the table for home improvers in 2018
both in the South East and nationally. Despite a 3% fall in
home improvement applications, Sevenoaks jumped above
a faster-falling South Bucks, which saw applications drop
7% in 2018.
Sevenoaks appears to have had a later spurt in activity than
many other home improver hot spots and its momentum
seems to have carried it to the top while the heat is coming
out of the home-improver markets faster elsewhere.
But in line with all the top performers in the region,
Sevenoaks is a leafy borough covering one or more well-
manicured commuter towns. Given the strong link with
house prices, the borough might, along with Chichester,
seem to be punching slightly above its weight. But both
have seen strong house-price growth relative to others in
the region over the past couple of years.
The key factors that promote planning applications for home
improvement are earnings, wealth, house prices and house-
price inflation, while pleasant rural and semi-rural settings
help. So, it’s no surprise that these areas in the South East
do well in the national home-improver league. However,
whereas a year earlier nine of the 10 in the South East table
were represented in the top 25 nationally (the tenth district
placed 26 in the national table) in 2018 there were seven.
This relative weakening says much about the slowing house-
price growth in the region relative to elsewhere.
However, when it comes to cash spent on home
improvement, the South East remains the mother lode. More
is spent annually by households on home improvement
in the South East than in any other region. The Office for
National Statistics Family Spending survey suggests that
households across the region spent more than £7.7 billion
on home improvements annually across 2017 and 2018, with
the average household spending more than £2,100 a year per
household on altering and improving their home.
In terms of home-improvement applications, it comes
second only to London, with more than 90,700 applications
made in 2018. This was a drop of 4.6% on the 2017 figure. But
this still means that for every 100 private homes 2.7 home-
improvement applications are made each year, compared
with an average across Britain of 2.0.
When considering the dip in home improvement it is worth
noting the relaxation in permitted development rules, which
will feed through over time. This will reduce applications for
some types of work. It is worth noting that while there may
be fewer applications for basements, the number for loft
conversions and extensions in the region increased in 2018.
At the bottom of the list of boroughs in the South East
for home improvement come Gosport, Portsmouth and
Southampton, more urbanised districts with generally
lower average annual earnings. Here these local authorities
received less than one application for home improvement
for every 100 private homes.
FOCUS ON…
South East
Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ Sevenoaks 1 5.4 5.7 5.5 -1
2 South Bucks 1 6.1 5.8 5.3 -10
3 Chichester 5 4.7 4.3 5.3 17
4 Elmbridge 1 5.4 5.4 4.8 -11
5 Guildford 1 5.1 4.8 4.6 -7
6 Windsor and Maidenhead NEW 4.5 4.1 4 -7
7 Chiltern 1 4.7 4.5 4 -12
8 Mole Valley 1 3.6 4.3 3.9 0
9 Tunbridge Wells 4 4.4 4.5 3.9 -12
10 Hart 3 4.4 4.4 3.9 -11
2 South East 2.8 2.9 2.7 -4.1
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG
South East districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
TOP10
made in the region for home improvement
MORE THAN
APPLICATIONS90,700
The relationship between house prices and home
improvement applications is strong but house price
growth matters too in the South East
IS KEY
House price growth
Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 more than £2,100 a year altering and improving their homes
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
17%
Chichester
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South East
Cotswold District held its place at the top of the South West
home-improvers league for 2018 and regained a place in
the top 25 national table. It saw a slight increase in home-
improvement applications submitted in 2018 after a dip the
year before.
The Cotswolds ticks most of the boxes you might expect
when it comes to demand for home improvement.
Average earnings are high, wealthy folk are moving in,
it’s picturesque and suitably rural and house prices are
high and rising. But while all that has fuelled a rise in the
planning applications submitted in the borough for home
improvements, growth has eased over the past two years.
The rural idyll that is the South Hams and the spa city of
Bath remain strong districts for home improvement, but the
pick for star performer in the region in 2018 would probably
go to Stroud. Home-improvement activity had waned after
2014 but has surged back up the table. Meanwhile, last year’s
star performer, East Dorset, consolidated its position in
the table, while Forest of Dean came in at number 10 in the
region after two years of solid growth in home-improvement
applications.
As a region the South West tends to perform better than
the average across Britain, certainly in less active periods.
In 2018 there were 45,300 planning applications for home
improvement, which works out at just under 2.1 applications
for home improvement for every 100 private homes and
slightly above the national average of 2.0.
While home-improvement applications have dropped in the
region and across Britain appear to be on the slide, there is
some comfort. The South West tends to be the least volatile
region when it comes to changes in applications. A steady
flow of equity-rich downsizers and movers from London and
the South East has tended to sustain demand even when
the economy is faltering.
In terms of the types of home improvements, for a given
number of private homes, outside the South East the
South West sees most applications for conservatories and
has seen the least decline in applications over the past five
or six years. When it comes to extensions to homes, The
Cotswolds comes out top, but interestingly the hotspot for
loft work in 2018 in the region was Christchurch followed
by Bath.
The Office for National Statistics Family Spending survey
suggests that households across the South West region
spent about £3.5 billion on home improvements annually
across 2017 and 2018. In the region the average household
spent almost £1,600 a year on altering and improving their
homes, the highest level outside London and the South
East regions.
FOCUS ON…
South West
Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ Cotswold 4.5 4.1 4.2 -3
2 South Hams 3.2 3.5 3.5 4
3 Bath & North East Somerset 3.1 3.4 3.2 -1
4 Stroud 3 3 2.8 3.2 11
5 North Dorset 1 3.2 2.9 2.8 -10
6 Cheltenham 1 2.7 3 2.6 -8
7 Christchurch 2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2
8 East Dorset 2 1.9 2.6 2.5 13
9 Mendip 1 2.7 2.7 2.5 -8
10 Forest of Dean NEW 2.2 2.4 2.5 11
4 South West 2.1 2.1 2.1 -2.1
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG
South West districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
TOP10
made in the region for home improvement
MORE THAN
APPLICATIONS45,300
COMES OUT TOPThe Cotswolds
in the region for applications for house extensions over the past two years, while Christchurch tops the
region for loft work
Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 about £1,600 a year altering and improving their homes, amounting to £3.5 billion annually across the region
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
13%
East Dorset
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South West
Powys held its place at the top of the Welsh home-
improvers league in 2018 despite a surge in applications
in Monmouthshire, which saw it knock Vale of Glamorgan
down to the third spot.
Powys tops the table despite having relatively low average
earnings within Wales. And, while house prices are above the
Welsh average, they are well below those in Monmouthshire
and the Vale of Glamorgan. But while there is a moderate
link between house prices and home improvement in Wales
the link with income is much weaker than in most other
parts of Britain.
Key factors that favour Powys is that a large proportion is in
or near to a national park, Brecon Beacons, where holiday
and second homes will flourish. There is also a high level
of retirees. And the proportion of managers, directors and
senior officials within its working population is higher than
the proportion in either Wales or Great Britain.
It could be that its relatively low house prices compared
with other such areas of Wales may be proving an advantage
to those looking for a retirement or second home.
It’s worth noting that the ratio of home-improvement
applications to house moves is high in Powys compared
with other parts of Wales, although this is in part down to
the slow turnover of the housing stock. But it does suggest
householders may be more predisposed to improve than
sell. This in part reflects the population profile, with its
higher proportion of retirees.
While Powys may top the table in Wales, its level of home
improvement relative to the housing stock in Powys,
at 2.1 per 100 private homes, is still only slightly above
the 2.0 average across Britain. Wales overall has a home
improvement to stock ratio which is above Scotland, but
below every English region excepting the North East.
However, where English regions have seen their rates
decline, in Wales there was a continued rise in home-
improvement planning applications in 2018, up 2.3% on the
year to 16,300, which suggests 1.4 applications for every 100
private homes.
When it comes to money invested in home improvement,
the Office for National Statistics Family Spending survey
figures have been a bit disappointing over the past two
years. They suggest that households in total across Wales
spent an average of about £875 million annually on home
improvements over 2017 and 2018, which comes to an
average annual household spend of £660 a year on altering
and improving homes. This puts Wales at the bottom of
the pile with about half the amount spent by the average
British household.
Blaenau Gwent continues to be stuck at the bottom of the
home-improvers pile in Wales and it looks set to hold that
position for some while yet. With the lowest average house
prices, it saw the number of applications fall again and has
dropped into the bottom 25 local authorities nationally.
FOCUS ON…
Wales
Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ Powys 1.7 2.1 2.1 9
2 Monmouthshire 2 1.7 1.8 2 13
3 Vale of Glamorgan 1 2 1.8 2 6
4 Pembrokeshire 1 1.7 1.8 1.9 9
5 Ceredigion 1.7 1.6 1.6 0
6 Anglesey 2 1.4 1.5 1.6 8
7 Denbighshire 1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1
8 Gwynedd 1 1.9 1.5 1.5 -9
9 Swansea 2 1.4 1.5 1.5 5
10 Cardiff 1.5 1.4 1.4 0
9 Wales 1.3 1.3 1.4 3.1
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, StatsWales
Wales districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
TOP10
submitted for home improvement in Wales
APPLICATIONS16,300
IS WEAKERLink to income
The link between income and home improvement is much weaker in Wales
than in many other parts of Britain
Households on average spent across 2017 and 2018 almost £660 a year altering and
improving their homes, suggesting that the annual household spend across Wales was
£875 million
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
13%
Monmouthshire
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Wales
Despite a continued drop in home-improvement
applications over the past three years, Stratford-on-Avon
comfortably retained its place at the top of the regional
league in 2018. Since peaking in 2015 and 2018 there was a
near 20% fall in the number of home improvement planning
applications in the district and it has dropped from 29th to
66th in the national ranking.
That its top performer is so lowly ranked nationally
underlines the relatively low level of home improvement
in the West Midlands compared with other parts of Britain.
As an English region, it ranks just above the North East and
North West when it comes to the likelihood of a householder
applying for permission to improve their home, with 1.5
applications for home improvement made for every 100
private homes – well below the national average of 2.0.
This relatively low level of activity is reflected in the official
figures on family spending. In cash terms the Office for
National Statistics Family Spending survey suggests that
on average a household in the region spent less than £800
a year in 2017 and 2018. This compares with an average of
almost £1,500 in England as a whole. That doesn’t mean the
market is small. Total spending is running annually at about
£1.9 billion across the region.
Stratford-on-Avon, however, ticks many boxes for home
improvement, particularly with its cultural and historical
heritage. Furthermore, its rural connections add to
its strength. In the West Midlands there is a stronger
link between higher numbers of home-improvement
applications and the more rural locations than elsewhere
in Britain. Indeed, two of the more recent risers in the table,
Hereford, which now sits second, and fifth-placed Malvern
Hills both have strong rural ties. However, one urban district
worth watching is Coventry, which has seen significant
growth over the past two years.
When it comes to the mix of types of home improvement, the
West Midlands is more heavily weighted towards extensions
than in any other region. For every application that mentions
loft, there are almost nine that mention extension – a ratio
higher than anywhere else in Britain in 2018. Given the link
between home improvement and rural locations in the
region, we should perhaps expect to see this.
Areas that tend to score lowest in the region are the urban
and industrial, especially where average incomes are low.
Stoke on Trent seems rooted to the bottom of the regional
rankings, well below Redditch, which dropped five places in
the table in 2018. But, Stoke aside, there is little difference
among many of those towards the foot of the table.
On a positive note, while the region may be among the
weaker in Britain for home improvement, along with the
North West, East Midlands and Wales, it saw increasing
numbers of applications for home improvement, while
applications fell across Britain as a whole. There was 1%
growth in 2018 in the number of applications submitted,
with submissions rising above 29,400 across the West
Midlands. This suggests 1.5 applications for every 100
private homes in the region.
FOCUS ON…
West Midlands
Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ Stratford-on-Avon 3.5 3.4 3.1 -11
2 Herefordshire 1 1.7 2.5 2.5 20
3 Warwick 1 2.1 2.5 2.4 3
4 Shropshire 1 2.3 2.4 2.3 0
5 Malvern Hills 2 1.6 2 2.3 27
6 Solihull 2 2.3 2.4 2.3 -3
7 Wychavon 1 2.1 2.3 2.1 -6
8 North Warwickshire 1 1.9 1.7 1.9 9
9 Lichfield 1 1.7 1.9 1.8 1
10 South Staffordshire 1.4 1.7 1.7 13
7 West Midlands 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.8
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG
West Midlands districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
TOP10
made in the region for home improvement in 2018, a rise of
1% on the previous year
APPLICATIONS29,400
IS STILL SHININGHerefordshire
Herefordshire continues to shine in 2018 after proving a
star performer in 2017
Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 almost £800 a year
altering and improving their homes
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
27%
Malvern Hills
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West Midlands
Harrogate continued to top the ranking for home
improvement among the local authorities of Yorkshire
& Humber despite a fall in the number of planning
applications in 2018.
Harrogate’s planners received 3.0 applications for every
100 private homes in the district, which is on a par with the
level over the previous two years. It is twice the average for a
region, which at 1.6 sits well below the 2.1 British average.
Yorkshire & Humber, along with the West Midlands, shows the
strongest links between less densely-populated boroughs
and greater levels of home improvement. And we see this in
the districts riding high in the table, Richmondshire, Rydale
and Craven. And most notably we see it in how the district of
Hambleton bounced back in 2018 with an increase in home
improvement applications of more than 20%. This followed a
slump in activity over the previous three years.
As a region Yorkshire & Humber saw applications stagnate
in 2018. But looking more widely at the region, it was noted
last year that there was an encouraging increase in home
improvement in some of the bigger cities in the region.
This tendency, although patchy, seems to be holding. This
supports the view that a wider spread of factors driving the
market, beyond the spending power of the relatively affluent
that one might associate with the more picturesque districts
in the region.
But while activity varies over time, it remains the case that
house prices are a key indicator of which boroughs in the
region are more likely to see home owners put in a home-
improvement application.
The bias of home improvement towards rural locations
possibly also accounts for the relatively poor showing on loft
works. But the increase in more urban areas of late has seen
the number of applications rise by almost 40% over the past
two years, far faster than the 16% rise in house extensions
over the same period. Unsurprisingly Leeds and Bradford
dominate, accounting for about 45% of the applications for
loft conversions in the region.
Across the region home-improvement planning applications
were fractionally down in 2018 compared with 2017 standing
at 30,200. This suggests that for every 100 private homes in
the region there were just above 1.5 applications.
North East Lincolnshire, centred on Grimsby, and Hull
remain at the bottom of the regional home-improver league.
The bump in home improvement that preceded Hull’s year
as UK City of Culture in 2017, whether a coincidence or not,
seems to have faded.
The Office for National Statistics Family Spending survey
suggests that the average household in the region spent
about £1,400 on home improvements annually over 2017
and 2018. The figure is about on a par, if not above, the UK
average. This suggests a total annual spend in the Yorkshire
& Humber of £3.2 billion.
FOCUS ON…
Yorkshire & Humber
Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*
★ Harrogate 2.9 3.2 3 0
2 Hambleton 4 2.4 2.3 2.8 20
3 Craven 1 2.8 2.8 2.7 -5
4 Richmondshire 2 3.1 3 2.6 -16
5 York 2.3 2.4 2.3 -4
6 Ryedale 3 3.1 3 2.2 -27
7 Leeds 1.7 1.8 1.8 5
8 Selby 2 1.8 1.6 1.8 5
9 East Riding of Yorkshire 1 1.7 1.7 1.7 -2
10 Bradford 1 1.7 1.6 1.7 0
6 Yorkshire & Humber 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.1
*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG
Yorkshire & Humber districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.
TOP10
STILL IMPROVING
Cities
A shift in activity from the rural idylls to inner cities has
changed the mix of home improvement work, with a 40% rise in applications
for loft works over the past two years
The link between house prices and home improvement appears far stronger in Yorkshire & Humber than in other regions of Britain
SEEM KEY TO GROWTHHouse prices
The annual spend by households on altering and improving their homes in Yorkshire & Humber across 2017 and 2018 was almost £1,400, amounting to £3.2 billion across the region
*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.
20%
Hambleton
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Britain’s Home Improvers ReportAPRIL 2019
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Yorkshire & Humber
Looking forward to how much home improvement
activity we might reasonably expect in the year ahead
it is hard to get beyond the unknown impact of Brexit.
There is no road map for the change this might make
to the UK economy.
Not that without Brexit things would be easy. The
home improvement market is in a period of transition,
with a wave of activity emanating from London
having washed over the regions while the market in
the capital has moved into decline.
Unpicking and separating the potential and unknown
impacts of Brexit from the more normal changes
created by the business cycle presents a particularly
tricky challenge. What we can say of Brexit, and
certainly the run up to it, is that it created uncertainty,
which is normally associated with a reduced
confidence when it comes to the big-ticket spending
associated with home improvement.
The data shows a decline in home-improvement
applications in 2018. But there was a rise in the more
than half of overall applications that are for loft works,
house extensions or basements. These tend to be
associated with more work.
What this doesn’t tell us is whether there has been
a reduction in the average spend on these home
improvements. Given that there has been a wave of
growth moving out from inner London, with growth
more widespread, we might assume that the average
value of projects is less. Certainly, the spate of high-
value basement work in London seems to have abated.
EconomyTurning to the construction output data for private
housing repair, maintenance and improvement work
the suggestion is that spending is down. There was
a drop of 1.1% according to the Office for National
Statistics, but this follows a surge in activity in 2017.
The Family Spending data suggest that spending in
the year to March 2018 was similar to the previous
year, if not a bit up. But these figures are erratic and,
while they give a good indication of the approximate
level, are insufficiently accurate for judging small
changes year to year.
Car sales have historically been a useful forward
indicator of activity in home improvement. They
tend to reflect the willingness of households to make
big-ticket purchases. The data here is rather gloomy.
2018 was the second consecutive year of decline, with
sales down 6% in 2017 and 7% in 2018.
There are special circumstances here as there were
incentives in earlier years that boosted purchases and
inevitably brought forward many. This was followed
by the diesel scandal that hit confidence. So, the
figures will reflect more than just a hesitance to spend
on big-ticket items. But they do build to the stack of
indicators on the gloomy side of the balance.
Consumer confidence also seems to be pointing
to a decline in home improvement applications,
which fits with the general direction of many of the
economic indicators.
A further issue to consider must be in the reaction
in the money markets to Brexit-related events,
although the scenarios here are wide and varied.
Critical is whether any exchange rate shifts prompt
a rise in interest rates. This could dampen the home
improvement market in those areas where we might
expect growth, not least because it would bear down
on house prices.
OutlookSo, pulling potential strands together, at a national
level the suggestion in the numbers is that we should
reasonably expect to see falls in home improvement,
if only because the business cycle does appear to be
running its course. So far, the data does not point to a
sharp fall, but there is exceptional uncertainty.
Looked at regionally the pattern of a wave of activity
moving out from central London seems established,
with central London cooling fast. There is every
reason to hope for continued improvement in the
North West and Midlands, which have shown strong
growth over the past few years. But the prospects
for the growth regions outside London may well rest
with the strength of regional house price rises, wage
growth and certainty over employment.
The regions currently displaying growth are those
more heavily dependent on trade in manufacturing.
Disruption here could have a significant impact on the
confidence among home owners. A spate of job cuts in
the wake of Brexit, for example, would quickly dampen
ardour for home improvement. Clearly a Brexit bounce
on the other hand might strengthen confidence.
Should the economic prospects of those of working
age be damaged, we would expect to see the areas
come to the fore where wealth rather than income
is a bigger driver of home improvement. This would
suggest the South West and the more rural parts
of Britain.
We need only listen to the conflicting debates over
the economic benefits of Brexit to understand
that the future is confused. That does not mean
the market holds no promise. The need and the
opportunities to improve the existing housing stock
of Britain remain huge.
OUTLOOK…
Looking forward
What we can say of Brexit, and certainly the run up to it, is that it created uncertainty, which is normally associated with a reduced confidence when it comes
to the big-ticket spending associated with home improvement
Consumer confidence also seems to be pointing to a decline in home
improvement applications
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Britain’s Home Improvers ReportAPRIL 2019
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@BarbourABI
Outlook
CaveatsThe level of applications for home improvement is not a direct measure of the level of work
done. This level will be influenced by the mix of work and the size of the projects. It will also
be influenced by the proportion of applications that are granted, the proportion that are
withdrawn or are resubmissions to accommodate a significant change in the project and
the proportion of those granted permission that are subsequently built out.
The approach of measuring applications, however, does give an indication of forward future
demand, as it is a clear signal from homeowners of an intention to improve their home.
There are, however, issues to note about planning applications, especially when
examining the differing types of work that might be permitted.
Most important to note is that legislation changes and is applied differently across the
areas of the nation, given that housing is devolved to the nations of Britain and that
different rules apply in designated areas such as national parks.
Furthermore, the impact of changes to legislation will vary from location to location, given
that the blend of types of home improvement will be different – more outbuildings in rural
locations, more loft extensions and basements in expensive urban areas.
A notable recent change to permitted development rights in England was introduced in
May 2013. This allowed for larger single-storey rear extensions to be built without planning
permission, although subject to neighbourhood consultation.
Examining Barbour ABI planning application data from 2011 to 2017, there appears to be
little evidence of any major impact on the proportion of all applications for single-storey
rear extensions which have continued to grow within the total number of extension
applications since 2013.
Had the regulatory change greatly altered the choices made by homeowners we would
have expected to see a distinct break in this relationship. It may be that the extension of
permitted rights prompted the construction of additional single-storey extensions that
would not otherwise have been built. This we cannot measure.
The Home Improvers survey is based on the number of
planning applications for residential improvements received
by each planning authority compared with the estimate for
the number of private homes within that authority. They
therefore represent intentions to undertake work rather
than actual activity.
The estimates of the housing stock are taken from DCLG,
Welsh Government and Scottish Government data sources.
From this a number is arrived at which represents how many
home improvement applications there are for each 100
private homes in a local authority.
Some local authorities are excluded – the Channel Islands,
Isles of Scilly and Isle of Man. This year, home improvement
applications for all the national parks, which act as planning
authorities, have been allocated to the local boroughs
within which they fall.
Also, while calculations were done for all boroughs, omitted
from the lists and rankings are authorities where there are
fewer than 10,000 private homes. These are City of London,
Orkney and Shetland. Their contributions do, however,
feature in the regional tables.
Because the data tends to be erratic, to get a more sensible
picture of growth in the latest year in most cases we
compare the latest figure with the average of the previous
two years. This we believe provides a better base for judging
relative growth in an area.
The spending data used comes from the Office for National
Statistics Family Spending data. This fluctuates greatly so
two-year averages are generally used.
2011 Census data are used for population comparisons.
House prices and sales are taken from the Office for National
Statistics, with enhancements to the more recent figures
using HM Land Registry and Registers of Scotland data.
Income data is the mean average taken from the Annual
Survey on Hours and Earnings.
Data for new car registrations are taken from the motor
industry trade body SMMT.
There may be apparent discrepancies with the historic
figures published in previous years. These are inevitable as
data are revised.
The data for home-improvement types is taken from
planning applications. An application may include one,
none or many of the types included in the report. They
should be regarded as indicative of trends rather than
accurate as the level of detail provided will vary application
to application.
The box and whisker charts help understand the
distribution of results. Excluding outliers, which appear as
dots, the box contains results falling into the middle two
quartiles, the whiskers show the spread of results in the
two outer quartiles. The line in the box is the median and
X marks the mean.
REFERENCES…
Methodology, notes and caveats
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Britain’s Home Improvers ReportAPRIL 2019
Hinderton Point, Lloyd Drive, Cheshire Oaks, Cheshire, CH65 9HQT: 0151 353 3500E: [email protected]: www.barbour-abi.com
@BarbourABI
Methodology