HKSAR Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales

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Report on Monthly Survey of

Retail Sales

December 2010


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CONTENTS Page Introduction 1 General observations 1 Tables1.

1. Value index of retail sales by type ofretail outlet

4

2. 2. Value of retail sales by type of retail outlet 7

3.

3. Value of retail sales in supermarkets bybroad product category

10

4.

4. Value of retail sales in department stores by

broad product category

11

5. 5. Volume index of retail sales by type ofretail outlet

12

6.

6. Movement of the volume of total retail sales 15

Charts1. 1. Value index of total retail sales 162. 2. Volume index of total retail sales 16

Survey methodology1. 1. Survey coverage 172. 2. Sample design 173. 3. Data collection 174. 4. Points to note in analysing retail sales statistics 185. 5. Classification of retail outlets 186. 6. Backcasted series of new retail sales statistics 19

Appendices. A. Revisedcoverage of different types of

retail outlets

20

. B. Concordance table for types of retail outletsunder old and new classifications

21

: (852) 2802 1258 (852) 2123 [email protected]

Enquiries about this publication can be directed to :Distribution Services Statistics Section, Census and Statistics Department

Address : 19/F Chuangs Hung Hom Plaza, 83 Wuhu Street, Hung Hom,Kowloon, Hong Kong, China.

Tel. : (852) 2802 1258 Fax : (852) 2123 1036E-mail : [email protected]

Website of the Census and Statistics Departmentwww.censtatd.gov.hk

Published in February 2011

This publication is available in download version only.


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Introduction1.

1. The Monthly Survey of Retail Sales(MRS) collects data for compiling retail salesstatistics primarily intended to measure the salesreceipts in respect of goods sold by local retailestablishments, for gauging the short-termbusiness performance of the local retail sector.

2.

2. The classification of retail establishmentsfollows the Hong Kong Standard IndustrialClassification (HSIC), which is used in variouseconomic surveys for classifying economic unitsinto different industry classes. To facilitateanalysis of the short-term business performanceof the local retail sector, the industry classes ofthe retail sector have been grouped into 20 retailoutlet types in this report, taking into accounttheir importance in the retail sector.

3. 2.02.0

3. Upon the implementation of the newHSIC Version 2.0 by the Census and StatisticsDepartment in October 2008, the MRS has beenenhanced to adopt the new classification incompiling the retail sales statistics. Startingfrom the reference month of January 2009, allthe retail sales statistics are compiled based onthe HSIC Version 2.0.

General observations4. 349 18.5% 15.9%

4. According to the MRS, the value of total retail sales in December 2010, provisionallyestimated at $34.9 billion, increased by 18.5%over a year earlier. After netting out the effectof price changes over the same period, thevolume of total retail sales increased by 15.9%in December 2010 when compared with a yearearlier. The relevant components of the

Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.

5. 27018.1%15.4%

5. The revised estimate of the value of totalretail sales in November 2010, at $27.0 billion,increased by 18.1% when compared withNovember 2009, while the volume of total retailsales increased by 15.4%.


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6. 103.6% 29.8% 27.8% 24.7% 14.5% 14.2% 13.0% 9.4% 7.4% 6.7%3.1%

6. Analysed by broad type of retail outletand comparing December 2010 withDecember 2009, the volume of sales of

miscellaneous consumer durable goodsincreased the most, by 103.6%. This wasfollowed by sales of footwear, allied products

and other clothing accessories (+29.8% involume); electrical goods and photographic

equipment (+27.8%); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (+24.7%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+14.5%);wearing apparel (+14.2%); furniture and

fixtures (+13.0%); commodities insupermarkets (+9.4%); motor vehicles andparts (+7.4%); commodities in departmentstores (+6.7%); and food, alcoholic drinks andtobacco (+3.1%).

7. 3.2%

7. On the other hand, the volume of sales of

fuels decreased by 3.2% in December 2010when compared with a year earlier.

8. 8.0%

8. Based on the seasonally adjusted series,the volume of total retail sales increased by8.0% in the fourth quarter of 2010 whencompared with the preceding quarter.

9.

18.3%

15.5%

9. For 2010 as a whole, total retail salesincreased by 18.3% in value or 15.5% in volume

over 2009.

10. 49.8% 36.8% 28.6% 26.0% 18.3% 15.3% 12.5% 11.9%9.5%6.2%3.5%1.5%

10. Analysed by broad type of retail outletand comparing the whole year of 2010 with2009, the volume of sales of miscellaneous

consumer durable goods increased the most, by49.8%. This was followed by sales ofmotorvehicles and parts (+36.8% in volume);electrical goods and photographic equipment(+28.6%); jewellery, watches and clocks, and

valuable gifts (+26.0%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories(+18.3%); wearing apparel (+15.3%);

commodities in department stores (+12.5%);furniture and fixtures (+11.9%);miscellaneous consumer goods (+9.5%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+6.2%); commodities insupermarkets (+3.5%); andfuels (+1.5%).


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11.

11. Table 1 presents the value index of retailsales for all retail outlets and by type of retailoutlet from January to December 2010. Thevalue index is compiled with the averagemonthly value index of retail sales fromOctober 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.

12.

12. Table 2 presents the value of retail salesfor all retail outlets and by type of retail outletfrom January to December 2010.

13.

13. Table 3 presents the value of retail salesin supermarkets by broad product category fromJanuary to December 2010.

14.

14. Table 4 presents the value of retail sales

in department stores by broad product categoryfrom January to December 2010.

15.

15. Table 5 presents the volume index ofretail sales for all retail outlets and by type ofretail outlet from January to December 2010.The volume index is compiled with the averagemonthly volume index of retail sales fromOctober 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.

16.

16. Table 6 shows the movement of the volumeof total retail sales in terms of theyear-on-year rate of change for a month comparedwith the same month in the preceding year basedon the original series, and in terms of the rate ofchange for a three-month period compared withthe preceding three-month period based on theseasonally adjusted series.

17.

17. Charts 1 and 2 depict, respectively, themovements of the value and volume indices of

total retail sales from December 2007 toDecember 2010 and the seasonally adjustedindices from December 2007 to December 2010.


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Table 1: Value index of retail sales by type of retail outlet, January to December 2010 (Average of monthly indices from

2010 Type of retail outlet 1(1) 2(1) 1-2(1) 3 4 5 6 7 8

174.3 160.1 167.2 147.2 149.2 154.1 144.7 162.1 158.0All retail outlets (+6.5) (+35.8) (+18.7) (+19.0) (+15.5) (+19.7) (+15.3) (+19.2) (+17.1)

159.9 155.8 157.8 137.3 143.5 140.9 129.6 131.3 139.8Food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco

(other than supermarkets)(+1.1) (+37.7) (+16.4) (+6.9) (+9.3) (+8.8) (+10.7) (+10.3) (+7.6)

178.4 182.5 180.5 158.9 160.3 141.6 131.5 122.3 130.2Fish, livestock and poultry,

fresh or frozen

(+0.5) (+28.9) (+13.1) (+3.9) (+3.2) (+0.1) (+3.4) (+5.8) (+3.2)

99.7 75.3 87.5 110.2 117.0 118.3 126.1 117.4 119.4Fruits and vegetables, fresh (+3.1) (+2.4) (+2.8) (+3.3) (+4.5) (+0.9) (+1.3) (-2.2) (+2.0)

120.8 134.2 127.5 114.6 110.3 119.1 111.4 116.0 124.4Bread, pastry, confectionery and

biscuits

(-7.6) (+35.7) (+11.1) (+10.8) (+10.7) (+15.8) (+17.4) (+17.1) (+20.2)

243.6 243.2 243.4 200.2 209.8 206.0 198.4 212.8 207.6Alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+21.5) (+55.5) (+36.4) (+15.0) (+22.6) (+24.5) (+26.5) (+20.9) (+8.6)

161.6 139.7 150.7 118.7 137.2 141.7 118.0 127.6 144.7Other foodstuffs (-2.3) (+52.2) (+17.2) (+4.8) (+11.4) (+9.5) (+10.2) (+8.7) (+5.1)

134.4 141.5 138.0 125.5 124.4 135.2 132.2 139.9 140.1Supermarkets (-12.6) (+27.0) (+4.0) (+1.6) (+2.9) (+2.2) (+2.6) (+6.4) (+4.9)

137.2 116.5 126.8 138.5 138.9 148.0 139.6 147.1 146.9Fuels (+10.9) (+9.9) (+10.4) (+16.5) (+11.4) (+12.2) (+4.2) (+8.1) (+5.7)

Note : Please refer to the last page of this tab


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Table 2: Value of retail sales by type of retail outlet, January to December 2010


29,308 26,925 56,233 24,753 25,084 25,905 24,330 27,258 26,564

All retail outlets

2,831 2,758 5,589 2,431 2,541 2,495 2,294 2,324 2,476Food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco(other than supermarkets)

937 959 1,896 835 842 744 691 643 684Fish, livestock and poultry,fresh or frozen

166 126 292 184 195 197 210 196 199Fruits and vegetables, fresh

491 545 1,036 466 448 484 453 471 505Bread, pastry, confectionery andbiscuits 447 446 892 367 385 378 364 390 381Alcoholic drinks and tobacco

790 683 1,473 580 671 692 577 624 707Other foodstuffs

3,056 3,217 6,272 2,853 2,828 3,073 3,006 3,180 3,184Supermarkets

687 583 1,270 693 695 741 699 736 736Fuels



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Table 2: Value of retail sales by type of retail outlet, January to December 2010 (Cont'd)


4,124 3,758 7,883 3,129 3,097 3,311 2,793 3,691 3,120

Clothing, footwear and allied products 3,410 3,196 6,606 2,735 2,752 2,901 2,368 3,208 2,605Wearing apparel

714 563 1,277 394 345 410 425 483 515Footwear, allied products andother clothing accessories

4,107 3,659 7,766 4,280 4,099 3,826 3,768 4,372 4,457Consumer durable goods

1,049 848 1,897 1,164 1,177 1,133 1,140 1,438 1,107Motor vehicles and parts

2,044 2,111 4,156 2,299 2,021 1,832 1,724 1,952 2,167Electrical goods andphotographic equipment 706 466 1,172 532 582 541 548 615 657Furniture and fixtures 307 233 541 284 320 319 356 367 527Other consumer durable goods,not elsewhere classified

2,969 2,797 5,766 2,280 2,212 2,840 2,307 2,569 2,537Department stores

5,543 4,829 10,373 4,269 4,359 4,719 4,592 5,163 5,158Jewellery, watches and clocks,and valuable gifts



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Table 4: Value of retail sales in department stores by broad product category, January to December 2010

2010 Broad product category 1

(1)2

(1) 1-2(2) 3 4 5 6 7 8

Non-supermarket sections

189 192 381 150 137 192 155 158 160Food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco

960 793 1,754 759 667 892 728 881 811Clothing and footwear

286 241 527 215 230 331 278 238 235

Electrical appliances, furniture andfixtures and other durable goods

411 397 808 464 457 549 444 484 515Proprietary medicines and supplies,cosmetics and toilet requisites

123 112 235 102 131 151 112 126 157Jewellery, watches and clocks, andvaluable gifts

715 702 1,416 347 339 441 324 412 397

Travel and sports goods, householdgoods and other goods

(2) 285 360 645 242 251 285 266 270 262Supermarket sections

(2)

2,969 2,797 5,766 2,280 2,212 2,840 2,307 2,569 2,537Total

* Notes : * Provisional figures.(1)

(1) Affected by the timing of the Luna

significant volatilities in the first twfigures for January and February are p

(2) (2) Supermarket sections are engaged in foods as major items.

(3) (3) The sum of individual items might nbecause of rounding.

(4) 2.0 (4) All the retail sales statistics are compi


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Table 5: Volume index of retail sales by type of retail outlet, January to December 2010 (Average of monthly indices fro


154.2 142.9 148.6 132.6 131.0 135.3 127.4 143.9 141.2All retail outlets (+3.2) (+31.5) (+15.1) (+17.3) (+12.4) (+16.3) (+11.9) (+16.2) (+14.9)

125.0 118.6 121.8 106.2 111.4 109.5 100.2 101.4 108.1Food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco

(other than supermarkets)(-1.0) (+31.2) (+12.5) (+6.7) (+8.4) (+7.1) (+8.5) (+7.3) (+4.6)

125.3 120.4 122.9 111.0 112.9 99.5 91.1 84.4 90.5Fish, livestock and poultry,

fresh or frozen

(+6.7) (+25.6) (+15.2) (+4.6) (+4.1) (+0.3) (+1.1) (+3.3) (+0.2)

72.5 47.0 59.8 74.9 82.3 83.1 90.2 81.8 84.0Fruits and vegetables, fresh (+1.9) (-17.0) (-6.4) (-2.8) (-7.4) (-10.4) (-5.8) (-11.9) (-5.2)

103.5 114.8 109.1 97.8 93.5 100.7 93.9 96.8 103.8Bread, pastry, confectionery and

biscuits

(-7.0) (+36.1) (+11.6) (+10.8) (+10.0) (+13.2) (+15.6) (+14.3) (+16.8)

206.0 205.8 205.9 169.4 177.5 173.1 166.5 178.7 174.3Alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+0.2) (+31.3) (+13.7) (+15.5) (+23.1) (+23.8) (+25.7) (+20.2) (+8.2)

130.3 111.6 120.9 95.1 109.6 112.6 93.9 101.3 114.2Other foodstuffs (-5.2) (+46.3) (+13.2) (+3.3) (+9.3) (+6.6) (+6.9) (+4.7) (+1.0)

112.9 119.4 116.2 104.4 103.7 112.7 110.8 116.7 117.2Supermarkets (-15.5) (+23.8) (+1.0) (+0.3) (+0.8) (+0.5) (+1.3) (+4.7) (+4.2)

124.0 104.2 114.1 122.9 121.8 131.7 126.8 132.2 131.6Fuels (+0.5) (-0.1) (+0.2) (+5.1) (-0.7) (+2.8) (+1.7) (+4.0) (+3.5)



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: Table 6 : Movement of the volume of total retail sales, October 2009 to December 2010

Original Series

Seasonally Adjusted Series

/Year / Month

(%)Year-on-year

rate of change (%)

3 months ending /

Year / Month

Compared with the

3 months ending /

Year / Month

(1)(2) (%)Rate of change(1)(2) (%)

2009 10 +8.3 2009 10 2009 7 +5.6

11 +10.0 11 8 +6.1

12 +11.4 12 9 +6.8

2010 1 +3.2 2010 1 10 +8.0

2 +31.5 2 11 +7.3

3 +17.3 3 12 +5.3

4 +12.4 4 2010 1 +0.1

5 +16.3 5 2 -1.7

6 +11.9 6 3 -2.6

7 +16.2 7 4 +0.6

8 +14.9 8 5 +2.2

9 +15.8 9 6 +5.5

10 +19.7 10 7 +7.4

11 +15.4 11 8 +8.5

12 +15.9* 12 9 +8.0*

Notes

* Provisional figures.

(1) The rate is calculated by comparing the monthly average index for the 3-month period ending the month in question

with that for the preceding 3-month period, e.g. the rate for the 3 months ending Dec. 2010 is the percentage change

of the average monthly index for Oct., Nov. and Dec. 2010 compared with the average monthly index for Jul., Aug.

and Sep. 2010.

(2) X-11(X-11 ARIMA)X-12 (X-12 ARIMA)X-12X-12X-11X-12/ Starting from January 2009, seasonal adjustment of the volume index of total retail sales is performed using the

X-12 ARIMA method to replace the previous X-11 ARIMA method. Seasonally adjusted figures for past months

have also been revised using the X-12 ARIMA method. The X-12 ARIMA method is an update to the X-11

ARIMA method with enhanced modelling and diagnostic capabilities. The X-12 ARIMA method has now become

a standard method used by statistical offices for performing seasonal adjustment of statistical series in many

countries/territories.

Seasonally adjusted series may be revised as more data become available. For retail sales index, the seasonally

adjusted series for the preceding three years are revised each year when the figures for January become available.

(3) 2.0All the retail sales statistics are compiled based on the HSIC Version 2.0.


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90

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12/07 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10

90

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0 0

: Key : Original series Seasonally adjusted series

90

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12/07 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10

90

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00

: Key : Original series Seasonally adjusted series

Chart 1 Value index of total retail sales100)

(Average of monthly indices from October 2004 to September 2005=100)

Chart 2 Volume index of total retail sales

Value Index

Value Index

Volume Index

Volume Index

100) (Average of monthly indices from October 2004 to September 2005=100)


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2.0

1.1

Survey methodology

Survey coverage

The Monthly Survey of Retail Sales (MRS)

covers all retail establishments in Hong Kong.

Starting from January 2009 round, the Hong Kong

Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0

has been adopted in place of HSIC Version 1.1 for

classifying the economic activities of retail

establishments.

With the existing classification of retail outlets,

the overlapping of commodity coverage among

different outlet types should not be considerable in

most cases. However, for department stores, because

of the very nature of their operating characteristics,

overlapping with the other outlet types is much greater

in terms of commodity coverage. Care should betaken about this when interpreting the retail sales

statistics in this report.

2.0

It should be noted that some establishments

originally classified as retail outlets under the old

version of HSIC may be re-classified into other retail

outlet types or may even no longer be classified as

retail trade after the implementation of HSIC Version

2.0. For details of the changes in coverage of each

retail outlet type, readers may refer to Appendices A

and B which present the revised coverage of each

retail outlet type and a concordance table for types of

retail outlets under the old and new classifications

respectively.

Sample design

A stratified rotational replicate sample design is

adopted for the survey.

Retail establishments are first stratified by type

and then by employment size. Within each stratum, agiven number of replicates are created. Sample size in

each replicate is determined by Neymans Allocation

according to the desired level of precision for the

estimated sales values for various retail outlet types.

For each month, three replicates are used, with one

new replicate rotated in and one old replicate rotated

out. A total of around 3 000 retail establishments are

selected for enumeration for each reference month.

Data collection

For each survey round, questionnaires are

mailed to sampled establishments. Data are collected

by post, supplemented by telephone or face-to-face

enumeration and verification as necessary. An


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electronic template of the questionnaire is also

available upon request to facilitate completion and

submission of the questionnaire by email.

Points to note in analysing retail sales statistics

The retail sales statistics presented in this report

cover consumer spending on goods but not on

services. Moreover, they include spending on goods

by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong

residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not

be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall

consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted

that the share of consumer spending on services in

overall consumer spending has been increasing over

time.

Users interested in the trend of overall consumer

spending should refer to the data series of privateconsumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major

component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled

from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers

consumer spending on both goods (including goods

purchased from all channels) and services by Hong

Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.

Statistics on retail sales by type of retail outlet

contained in this report are outlet statistics, not

commodity statistics. Hence, for example, statistics on

clothing, footwear and allied products do not relate

to the total sales of clothing, footwear and allied

products, but to the total sales in those shops selling

such commodities either as the only items or as the

principal items. Sales figures for those outlets may

therefore include other commodities. Conversely,

some sales of clothing, footwear and allied products

may have been subsumed in the sales figures for other

outlets (such as supermarkets, where some minor

clothing and footwear items are also available).

The volume of retail sales is derived from the

value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes.

The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index

are used as deflators.

Classification of retail outlets

Since 1990, the HSIC has been adopted for

classifying the economic activities of establishments in

Hong Kong. The HSIC is devised using the

International Standard Industrial Classification of AllEconomic Activities Revision 2 (ISIC Rev. 2) as a

framework with local adaptation to reflect the structure

of the Hong Kong economy. It is a statistical

classification framework for classifying economic


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units into industry classes based on their major

economic activities. This framework not only

provides a basic stratification for sample selection of

economic units in various surveys, but also serves as a

standard industrial classification in Hong Kong for

compilation, analysis and dissemination of statistics by

economic activities.

The classification of retail establishments in the

MRS also follows the HSIC. To facilitate analysis of

the short-term business performance of the local retail

sector, the industry classes of the retail sector have

been grouped into 20 retail outlet types, taking into

account their importance in the retail sector.

1.1 2.0 2.0

The HSIC has been reviewed from time to time

to reflect significant changes in the structure of the

Hong Kong economy and the emergence of new

economic activities. HSIC Version 1.1 wasimplemented in 2001 and in order to bring HSIC more

up-to-date on local economic activities as well as to

foster international comparability of official statistics

for different users, a full-scale revision exercise was

completed in 2008. The revised HSIC, i.e. HSIC

Version 2.0, was released in October 2008. HSIC

Version 2.0 is being used progressively in different

surveys by the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD)

starting from 2009. Readers may refer to the feature

article Revision of the Hong Kong Standard

Industrial Classification published in the November

2008 issue of the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of

Statistics for more details on the revision of HSIC.

2.0

Starting from the reference month of

January 2009, the retail sales statistics are compiled

based on the HSIC Version 2.0.

1.1 2.0 2.0 : (852) 2802 1258 [email protected]

Backcasted series of new retail sales statistics

Parallel coding of the industry classes ofestablishments covered in the MRS, one under the

HSIC Version 1.1 and the other under the HSIC

Version 2.0, was undertaken in different survey rounds

in the reference year of 2008. Based on the 2008

survey data with dual classifications, the series of

retail sales statistics under HSIC Version 2.0 has been

backcasted to the base period (i.e. October 2004 to

September 2005). Readers who are interested in the

backcasted series or have enquiries about the survey

results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics

Section of the C&SD (Tel: (852) 2802 1258 or E-mail:[email protected]).


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HKSAR Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales

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