Josep Bordonau a Coenercat, sessió de Barcelona (29.11.2013)
Henrik Lund a Coenercat, sessió de Barcelona (25.11.2013)
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Transcript of Henrik Lund a Coenercat, sessió de Barcelona (25.11.2013)
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Denmark 100% renewable Energy
Henrik LundProfessor in Energy PlanningAalborg University, Denmark
CoEnerCat Congrés d‘Energia de Catalunya Barcelona 25 November 2013
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Aalborg University, Denmark
Jutland/Denmark:
• 25% wind power (120,000 owners)• High share of the world’s offshore power • 30% Distributed Generation • 50% of electricity supplied by CHP
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100% renewable energy solutions !
• What we already have done in Denmark
• What we aim to do in the future… (100% Renewable Energy)
• How this can be done (…illustrated by the IDA Energy Plan 2030)
• Recent developments in smart energy systems marked based integration of wind power
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The first oil crisis in 1973The Danish energy consumption in 1972
Primary Energy Supply 1972
Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewable Energy
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30 Years of active Energy Planning
30 years of active Government and Parliament Energy Policies.
Including NGO alternativestrategies and public debate
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Difficult Economical situation In Denmark in the early 80ies
Net Foreign Depth in Denmark
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Year
Per
cent
of G
DP
Unemployment in Denmark
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Year
Per
cent
of p
opul
atio
n
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Energy Policies: The 80ies
Objective in focus:
Socio Economy(Jobs andbalance of payment)
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Feasibility Studies methodologies
Mid 80´ies: • Heat planning procedure in all municipalities • feasibility studies including jobs and balance of payment issues in the priority • made possible for authorities to run job creation and innovative energy policies and planning
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Foreign Depth
Net Foreign Depth in Denmark
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Per
cent
of G
DP
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Job creation
Unemployment in Denmark
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Per
cent
of p
opul
atio
n
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40 years with a stable energy consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption
0
100
200
300
400
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1000
PJ
RES
Nuclear
Ngas
Oil
Coal
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Domestic heating
020406080
100120140160
1972 1980 1988 1996 2003
Inde
x 19
72=1
00
Heated Space and Heat Demand
Space Heat demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1972 1980 1988 1996 2003 2009
PJ District Heating
Distributed CHP
Large CHP
Boilers0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1972 1980 1988 1996 2003 2009
PJ Fuel for House Heating
RES
Coal
Ngas
Oil
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Danish electricityproduction
Big power stations
Small CHP plants
Wind turbines
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At present Denmark is still self-sufficient
0
200
400
600
800
10001200
1400
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012
PJDanish Energy Production
Oil Natural gas Renewable Energy
0
200
400
600
800
10001200
1400
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012
PJDanish Primary Energy Supply
Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewable Energy
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Danish oil production and prognosis
The Danish Energy Authority, 2002
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The Danish Energy Authority, 2006
Export of energy
technology and fuels
Value of Danis h E nerg y P roduc ts
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051.0
00
MD
KK
Total
O il
Natural
G asC oal
E lec tric ity
Danis h export of E nerg y T ec hnolog y
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
1.0
00
MD
KK
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
E x port
S hare
of Total
E x ports
Value of Danis h E nerg y P roduc ts
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1.0
00
MD
KK
Natural
gas
C rude
oil
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Export of Danish Energy Technology
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3 Challenges
• Climate Change
• Security of supply (Fossil fuels)
• Industry, economy and jobs
Danish CO2 emissons
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
Year
Mio
.ton Actual
Corrected
World Primary Energy Consumption
0
100
200
300
400
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1000
PJ
RES
Nuclear
Ngas
Oil
Coal
Danis h export of E nerg y T ec hnolog y
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
1.0
00
MD
KK
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
E xport
S hare
of Total
E xports
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The long-term Objective of Danish Energy Policy
Expressed by former Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen in his opening speech to the Parliament in 2006 and in several political agreements since then:
To convert to 100% Renewable Energy
Prime minister 16 November 2008: ”We will free Denmark totally from fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas”
Prime minister 16 November 2008:”… position Denmark in the heart of green growth”
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New Government September 2011
• 100% RES by 2050• 100% RES for electricity and
heating by 2035• No coal on power plants and no oil
for heating households by 2030• 50% wind in electricity supply by
2020• 40% CO2 reduction by 2020
compared to 1990
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Plans how to make the transformation to 100%
Renewable Energy Systems
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Energi System Analyse Model
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
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Wind energy
Input:• Data from total productions
of wind turbines in the TSO Eltra area (West Denmark).
Wind production Eltra 1996 (2042 MWh pr MW)
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
MW
h/h
Wind production Eltra 2000 (2083 MWh pr MW)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
MW
h/h
Wind production Eltra 2001 (1964 MWh pr MW)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
MW
h/h
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At present 99% of Danish Wind Power is used in Denmark to meet Domestic demands
ByHenrik Lund, Frede Hvelplund, Poul A. Østergaard,
Bernd Möller, Brian Vad MathiesenDepartment of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Aalborg
Anders N. Andersen EMD International, NOVI Research Park, Aalborg, Denmark
Poul Erik Morthorst, Kenneth Karlsson, Peter Meibom and Marie Münster
Risø DTU, National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Roskilde, Denmark
Jesper Munksgaard Pöyry, Copenhagen, Denmark
Peter KarnøeDepartment of Organization, Copenhagen Business School,
Copenhagen,Denmark
Henrik Wenzel, Institute of Chemical Engineering, University of Southern Denmark, Odense,
Denmark
Hans Henrik LindboeEa Energy Analyses, Copenhagen, Denmark
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A palette of solutions
• Flexible consumption• Electricity storage• CAES systems• Regulation of CHP plants • Electric heating• Heat pumps• Electric cars• Stopping of wind turbines• Production of hydrogen• Transmission abroad• V2G
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Conclusions:
• Regulation of CHP and heat storage (implemented in DK in 2004): Makes possible to integrate 20% Wind Power (and 50% CHP)
• Adding large heat pumps and heat storage capacity to existing CHP plants: Makes possible to integrate 40% Wind Power (and 50% CHP)
• Electricity for transportation (integrate approx. 60% wind power)
• Important to involve the new flexible technologies in the grid stabilisation task
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Three targets in the IDA Energy Year 2006
• To maintain security of energy supply
• To cut CO2 emissions by 50 % by year 2030 compared to the 1990 level
• To create employment and to quadruple the export in the energy industry
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During the IDA Energy Year 2006
• 40 meetings and seminars by the IDA groups and societies
• More than 1600 participants• Coordination by the IDA
Committee for the environment• Overall energy system analysis
at Alborg University
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Energi System Analyse Model
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
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IDA Energiplan 2030
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100% Renewable Energy in 2050
Primær energiforsyning 100% VE i år 2050, PJ
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Ref 2030 IDA 2030 IDA 2050 Bio IDA 2050 Vind IDA 2050
Eksport
VE-el
Solvarme
Biomasse
Naturgas
Olie
Kul
Biomass potentials and consumtion in IDA 2030, PJ
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
DEA potential IDA 2030 Max potential
Waste
Energy crops Slurry fibre fraction
Slurry biogas
WoodStraw
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Conclusions
• 100 Percent Renewable is physically possible and the first toward 2030 is feasible to the Danish Society.
• The methodology of design is a very complex process. The combination of a creative phaseinvolving many single experts and detailed system analyses seems efficient and can be recommended.
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CEESA Project 2011/2012Transport: Electric vehicles is best from an energy efficient point of view. But gas and/or liquid fuels is needed to transform to 100%.
Biomass:.. is a limited resource and can not satisfy all the transportation needs.
Consequence… Electricity from Wind (and similar resources) needs to be converted to gas and liquied fuels in the long-term perspective…
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Case: Skagen CHP plant
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Skagen CHP plant
• CHP capacity: 13 MWe and 16 MWth (Three 4.3 MWe Wärtsilä Natural Gas engines
• 250 MWh heat storage• 37 MW peak load boilers• 10 MW electric boiler• Heat Pumps Investment under consideration
Operated together with a Waste Incineration plant (heat only).
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Primary reserves (frequency controlled production)
Secondary reserves (controlled by status of primary reserves)
Manuel regulating power (Tertiary reserves)
30 sec15 min
Intra day market
Day ahead spot market
1 hour > 12 hours
The main electricity markets
The M.Sc. Programmes in Environm. Managem. & Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 8. Semester, http://people.plan.aau.dk/~ana
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Skagen
• Day ahead spot market in Jan. 2005
• Regulating power market in approx. 2006
• Automatic primary reserve market in Nov. 2009
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Cost of entering primary automatic reserves market
• Cost of making +- 1.4 MW available on the engines: Only approx. 27.000 EUR.
• Investing in 10 MW electric boiler: Approx 0.7 MEUR.
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Conclusions
• Denmark can operate a system with 20% Wind and 50% CHP
• By adding heat pumps to the CHP units the integration of wind power can be raised to approx. 40% with-out loosing efficiency (nor wind power)
• Including the CHP plants in the various electricity markets is essential.
• Once the markets are open for CHP plants the cost of entering them seams small.
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More information
http://energy.plan.aau.dk/book.php
www.energyplanning.aau.dk
• http://www.emd.dk/desire/skagen• http://www.emd.dk/el
www.EnergyPLAN.eu