School of something FACULTY OF OTHER

Help or Hindrance? Travel and Energy

Implications of Highly Automated Vehicles

Zia Wadud

Centre for Integrated Energy Research & Institute for Transport Studies

with Don MacKenzie (UWashington); Paul Leiby (ORNL)

Future Powertrains Conference, Solihull, Feb 2015

Objective:

To bound the potential energy impacts

Framework:

Energy Demand = Energy Efficiency

× Travel Demand

Method:

Primarily literature review, aided by

rational assumptions

Scenario building

Study description

Levels of automation

NHTSA: 5 Levels

Mechanisms for energy effects

Energy Efficiency

Travel Demand

Energy efficiency

Platooning on highway travel

- 4%~20%

Energy efficiency

(Automated) Eco-driving

- 0%~20%

Energy efficiency

Traffic flow & capacity improvement

- 0%~4%

Energy efficiency

De-emphasized performance

- 5%~18%

Energy efficiency

Improved crash avoidance

- 6%~17%

Energy efficiency

Vehicle right-sizing

- 20%~24%

Energy efficiency

Higher speed limit

+ 7%~15%

Energy efficiency

Enhanced features

+ 0%~11%

Travel demand

Increased car travel

(travel cost reduction)

+ 5%~150%*

*Most likely not as high as 150%, as there will be other constraints

Travel demand

New users

+ 2%~10%

Travel demand

New mobility models

- 0%~20%

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150%

Platooning

Eco-driving

Congestion mitigation

De-emphasized performance

Improved crash avoidance

Vehicle right-sizing

Higher highway speeds

Increased features

Travel cost reduction

New user groups

Changed mobility services

Infrastructure footprint*

% changes in energy consumption due to vehicle automation

Results (USA)

UK guess

Four scenarios (not predictions!)

-100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

200.0% LDV HDV

Energy Intensity

Travel Demand

Energy Demand

Total Road Transport

Energy

-100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

200.0%

-100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

200.0%

-100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

200.0%

Have our cake & eat it too

Stuck in the middle at L2

Strong responses

Dystopian nightmare

Still large uncertainties

Beware of unintended travel & energy effects

Most travel increases from level 4 automation

Short of level 4 better from energy perspective

..Yet level 4 increases mobility for the disabled and the elderly

Conclusions

Thank you!

z.wadud@leeds.ac.uk

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Image courtesy