Heavy Duty Co. Simulation Assignment

Results - Average Costs

Policy Chosen Approx. Avg. Cost

Corrective $ 2,200

$ 2,000

$ 1,815

$ 2,052

Preventive (3rd day)

Preventive (4th day)

Preventive (5th day)

Best Policy - Preventive 4th day replacement

Heavy Duty Co. Simulation Assignment

Cycle Random #

1 0.60773072112897 5 5 $ 11,000 $ 11,000 2 0.13378193579598 4 9 $ 11,000 $ 22,000 3 0.75615133280901 6 15 $ 11,000 $ 33,000 4 0.38390654515228 5 20 $ 11,000 $ 44,000 5 0.69095765027639 5 25 $ 11,000 $ 55,000 6 0.61307297873577 5 30 $ 11,000 $ 66,000 7 0.03147514878181 4 34 $ 11,000 $ 77,000 8 0.06365978432103 4 38 $ 11,000 $ 88,000 9 0.51415482538237 5 43 $ 11,000 $ 99,000

10 0.02088797174412 4 47 $ 11,000 $ 110,000 11 0.08939143500808 4 51 $ 11,000 $ 121,000 12 0.39034142545625 5 56 $ 11,000 $ 132,000 13 0.23987958454071 4 60 $ 11,000 $ 143,000 14 0.43481995845634 5 65 $ 11,000 $ 154,000 15 0.72287629571088 5 70 $ 11,000 $ 165,000 16 0.55097738358621 5 75 $ 11,000 $ 176,000 17 0.55159011815217 5 80 $ 11,000 $ 187,000 18 0.26028436532626 5 85 $ 11,000 $ 198,000 19 0.71323941968416 5 90 $ 11,000 $ 209,000 20 0.22381829581471 4 94 $ 11,000 $ 220,000 21 0.62591714884681 5 99 $ 11,000 $ 231,000 22 0.54882436846735 5 104 $ 11,000 $ 242,000 23 0.24876765480333 4 108 $ 11,000 $ 253,000 24 0.61355681262372 5 113 $ 11,000 $ 264,000 25 0.96145865473576 6 119 $ 11,000 $ 275,000 26 0.6974331310361 5 124 $ 11,000 $ 286,000 27 0.2600269479754 5 129 $ 11,000 $ 297,000 28 0.44363530252537 5 134 $ 11,000 $ 308,000 29 0.36687669715728 5 139 $ 11,000 $ 319,000 30 0.27071337554238 5 144 $ 11,000 $ 330,000 31 0.74899983918381 5 149 $ 11,000 $ 341,000 32 0.9985998260462 6 155 $ 11,000 $ 352,000 33 0.17106076284548 4 159 $ 11,000 $ 363,000 34 0.38920526559065 5 164 $ 11,000 $ 374,000 35 0.54088661267088 5 169 $ 11,000 $ 385,000 36 0.29319698309957 5 174 $ 11,000 $ 396,000 37 0.41592889577093 5 179 $ 11,000 $ 407,000 38 0.12740536523241 4 183 $ 11,000 $ 418,000 39 0.91100627409315 6 189 $ 11,000 $ 429,000 40 0.03792870011461 4 193 $ 11,000 $ 440,000 41 0.94395170364019 6 199 $ 11,000 $ 451,000 42 0.99757375911821 6 205 $ 11,000 $ 462,000 43 0.90931955102867 6 211 $ 11,000 $ 473,000 44 0.85799315937803 6 217 $ 11,000 $ 484,000 45 0.30609315441047 5 222 $ 11,000 $ 495,000

Breakdown Time

Day # in Production

Breakdown Cost

Total Cost of Breakdowns

46 0.73279765935962 5 227 $ 11,000 $ 506,000 47 0.96831959843945 6 233 $ 11,000 $ 517,000 48 0.18332060982786 4 237 $ 11,000 $ 528,000 49 0.3840367042819 5 242 $ 11,000 $ 539,000 50 0.17593994182703 4 246 $ 11,000 $ 550,000 51 0.93252379479392 6 252 $ 11,000 $ 561,000 52 0.37017525177369 5 257 $ 11,000 $ 572,000 53 0.66554146454795 5 262 $ 11,000 $ 583,000 54 0.02135356893157 4 266 $ 11,000 $ 594,000 55 0.49612064035153 5 271 $ 11,000 $ 605,000 56 0.21743480599005 4 275 $ 11,000 $ 616,000 57 0.32645858494703 5 280 $ 11,000 $ 627,000 58 0.91282604572806 6 286 $ 11,000 $ 638,000 59 0.82758330351995 6 292 $ 11,000 $ 649,000 60 0.27680011076691 5 297 $ 11,000 $ 660,000 61 0.24212069891804 4 301 $ 11,000 $ 671,000 62 0.15715794462003 4 305 $ 11,000 $ 682,000 63 0.86261167710394 6 311 $ 11,000 $ 693,000 64 0.17579843711537 4 315 $ 11,000 $ 704,000 65 0.92516807112082 6 321 $ 11,000 $ 715,000 66 0.87849075514824 6 327 $ 11,000 $ 726,000 67 0.88576361984065 6 333 $ 11,000 $ 737,000 68 0.81122444811478 6 339 $ 11,000 $ 748,000 69 0.33718007283721 5 344 $ 11,000 $ 759,000 70 0.07115353639069 4 348 $ 11,000 $ 770,000 71 0.55533615695736 5 353 $ 11,000 $ 781,000 72 0.76003154848232 6 359 $ 11,000 $ 792,000 73 0.66532658053023 5 364 $ 11,000 $ 803,000 74 0.51487840948961 5 369 $ 11,000 $ 814,000 75 0.11047935126288 4 373 $ 11,000 $ 825,000 76 0.48067784182373 5 378 $ 11,000 $ 836,000 77 0.6947589510367 5 383 $ 11,000 $ 847,000 78 0.05760200471829 4 387 $ 11,000 $ 858,000 79 0.39298354600692 5 392 $ 11,000 $ 869,000 80 0.77631728857522 6 398 $ 11,000 $ 880,000 81 0.6230093446093 5 403 $ 11,000 $ 891,000 82 0.452094365133 5 408 $ 11,000 $ 902,000 83 0.68648713955343 5 413 $ 11,000 $ 913,000 84 0.36780333698056 5 418 $ 11,000 $ 924,000 85 0.95345456497611 6 424 $ 11,000 $ 935,000 86 0.19543748231079 4 428 $ 11,000 $ 946,000 87 0.30944639026801 5 433 $ 11,000 $ 957,000 88 0.43912743465957 5 438 $ 11,000 $ 968,000 89 0.00967297756852 4 442 $ 11,000 $ 979,000 90 0.93768755778411 6 448 $ 11,000 $ 990,000 91 0.81909263845898 6 454 $ 11,000 $ 1,001,000 92 0.6925592979079 5 459 $ 11,000 $ 1,012,000 93 0.88262483170874 6 465 $ 11,000 $ 1,023,000

94 0.48188383155439 5 470 $ 11,000 $ 1,034,000 95 0.56728166473683 5 475 $ 11,000 $ 1,045,000 96 0.91321262285835 6 481 $ 11,000 $ 1,056,000 97 0.43703557663748 5 486 $ 11,000 $ 1,067,000 98 0.11059092439564 4 490 $ 11,000 $ 1,078,000 99 0.25498214093109 5 495 $ 11,000 $ 1,089,000

100 0.9009515179406 6 501 $ 11,000 $ 1,100,000

Probability Day #

0.25 0 40.5 0.25 5

0.25 0.75 6

Breakdown cost $ 11,000

Average Cost $ 2,196

Replication Average CostBase $ 2,196

1 $ 2,196 2 $ 2,196 3 $ 2,196 4 $ 2,196 5 $ 2,196 6 $ 2,196 7 $ 2,196 8 $ 2,196 9 $ 2,196

10 $ 2,196 11 $ 2,196 12 $ 2,196 13 $ 2,196 14 $ 2,196 15 $ 2,196 16 $ 2,196 17 $ 2,196 18 $ 2,196 19 $ 2,196 20 $ 2,196 21 $ 2,196 22 $ 2,196 23 $ 2,196 24 $ 2,196 25 $ 2,196 26 $ 2,196 27 $ 2,196 28 $ 2,196 29 $ 2,196 30 $ 2,196 31 $ 2,196 32 $ 2,196

Cumulative Probablity

Average Cost after 2,202$

33 $ 2,196 34 $ 2,196 35 $ 2,196 36 $ 2,196 37 $ 2,196 38 $ 2,196 39 $ 2,196 40 $ 2,196 41 $ 2,196 42 $ 2,196 43 $ 2,196 44 $ 2,196 45 $ 2,196 46 $ 2,196 47 $ 2,196 48 $ 2,196 49 $ 2,196 50 $ 2,196 51 $ 2,196 52 $ 2,196 53 $ 2,196 54 $ 2,196 55 $ 2,196 56 $ 2,196 57 $ 2,196 58 $ 2,196 59 $ 2,196 60 $ 2,196 61 $ 2,196 62 $ 2,196 63 $ 2,196 64 $ 2,196 65 $ 2,196 66 $ 2,196 67 $ 2,196 68 $ 2,196 69 $ 2,196 70 $ 2,196 71 $ 2,196 72 $ 2,196 73 $ 2,196 74 $ 2,196 75 $ 2,196 76 $ 2,196 77 $ 2,196 78 $ 2,196 79 $ 2,196 80 $ 2,196

81 $ 2,196 82 $ 2,196 83 $ 2,196 84 $ 2,196 85 $ 2,196 86 $ 2,196 87 $ 2,196 88 $ 2,196 89 $ 2,196 90 $ 2,196 91 $ 2,196 92 $ 2,196 93 $ 2,196 94 $ 2,196 95 $ 2,196 96 $ 2,196 97 $ 2,196 98 $ 2,196 99 $ 2,196

100 $ 2,196 101 $ 2,196 102 $ 2,196 103 $ 2,196 104 $ 2,196 105 $ 2,196 106 $ 2,196 107 $ 2,196 108 $ 2,196 109 $ 2,196 110 $ 2,196 111 $ 2,196 112 $ 2,196 113 $ 2,196 114 $ 2,196 115 $ 2,196 116 $ 2,196 117 $ 2,196 118 $ 2,196 119 $ 2,196 120 $ 2,196 121 $ 2,196 122 $ 2,196 123 $ 2,196 124 $ 2,196 125 $ 2,196 126 $ 2,196 127 $ 2,196 128 $ 2,196

129 $ 2,196 130 $ 2,196 131 $ 2,196 132 $ 2,196 133 $ 2,196 134 $ 2,196 135 $ 2,196 136 $ 2,196 137 $ 2,196 138 $ 2,196 139 $ 2,196 140 $ 2,196 141 $ 2,196 142 $ 2,196 143 $ 2,196 144 $ 2,196 145 $ 2,196 146 $ 2,196 147 $ 2,196 148 $ 2,196 149 $ 2,196 150 $ 2,196 151 $ 2,196 152 $ 2,196 153 $ 2,196 154 $ 2,196 155 $ 2,196 156 $ 2,196 157 $ 2,196 158 $ 2,196 159 $ 2,196 160 $ 2,196 161 $ 2,196 162 $ 2,196 163 $ 2,196 164 $ 2,196 165 $ 2,196 166 $ 2,196 167 $ 2,196 168 $ 2,196 169 $ 2,196 170 $ 2,196 171 $ 2,196 172 $ 2,196 173 $ 2,196 174 $ 2,196 175 $ 2,196 176 $ 2,196

177 $ 2,196 178 $ 2,196 179 $ 2,196 180 $ 2,196 181 $ 2,196 182 $ 2,196 183 $ 2,196 184 $ 2,196 185 $ 2,196 186 $ 2,196 187 $ 2,196 188 $ 2,196 189 $ 2,196 190 $ 2,196 191 $ 2,196 192 $ 2,196 193 $ 2,196 194 $ 2,196 195 $ 2,196 196 $ 2,196 197 $ 2,196 198 $ 2,196 199 $ 2,196 200 $ 2,196 201 $ 2,196 202 $ 2,196 203 $ 2,196 204 $ 2,196 205 $ 2,196 206 $ 2,196 207 $ 2,196 208 $ 2,196 209 $ 2,196 210 $ 2,196 211 $ 2,196 212 $ 2,196 213 $ 2,196 214 $ 2,196 215 $ 2,196 216 $ 2,196 217 $ 2,196 218 $ 2,196 219 $ 2,196 220 $ 2,196 221 $ 2,196 222 $ 2,196 223 $ 2,196 224 $ 2,196

225 $ 2,196 226 $ 2,196 227 $ 2,196 228 $ 2,196 229 $ 2,196 230 $ 2,196 231 $ 2,196 232 $ 2,196 233 $ 2,196 234 $ 2,196 235 $ 2,196 236 $ 2,196 237 $ 2,196 238 $ 2,196 239 $ 2,196 240 $ 2,196 241 $ 2,196 242 $ 2,196 243 $ 2,196 244 $ 2,196 245 $ 2,196 246 $ 2,196 247 $ 2,196 248 $ 2,196 249 $ 2,196 250 $ 2,196 251 $ 2,196 252 $ 2,196 253 $ 2,196 254 $ 2,196 255 $ 2,196 256 $ 2,196 257 $ 2,196 258 $ 2,196 259 $ 2,196 260 $ 2,196 261 $ 2,196 262 $ 2,196 263 $ 2,196 264 $ 2,196 265 $ 2,196 266 $ 2,196 267 $ 2,196 268 $ 2,196 269 $ 2,196 270 $ 2,196 271 $ 2,196 272 $ 2,196

273 $ 2,196 274 $ 2,196 275 $ 2,196 276 $ 2,196 277 $ 2,196 278 $ 2,196 279 $ 2,196 280 $ 2,196 281 $ 2,196 282 $ 2,196 283 $ 2,196 284 $ 2,196 285 $ 2,196 286 $ 2,196 287 $ 2,196 288 $ 2,196 289 $ 2,196 290 $ 2,196 291 $ 2,196 292 $ 2,196 293 $ 2,196 294 $ 2,196 295 $ 2,196 296 $ 2,196 297 $ 2,196 298 $ 2,196 299 $ 2,196 300 $ 2,196 301 $ 2,196 302 $ 2,196 303 $ 2,196 304 $ 2,196 305 $ 2,196 306 $ 2,196 307 $ 2,196 308 $ 2,196 309 $ 2,196 310 $ 2,196 311 $ 2,196 312 $ 2,196 313 $ 2,196 314 $ 2,196 315 $ 2,196 316 $ 2,196 317 $ 2,196 318 $ 2,196 319 $ 2,196 320 $ 2,196

321 $ 2,196 322 $ 2,196 323 $ 2,196 324 $ 2,196 325 $ 2,196 326 $ 2,196 327 $ 2,196 328 $ 2,196 329 $ 2,196 330 $ 2,196 331 $ 2,196 332 $ 2,196 333 $ 2,196 334 $ 2,196 335 $ 2,196 336 $ 2,196 337 $ 2,196 338 $ 2,196 339 $ 2,196 340 $ 2,196 341 $ 2,196 342 $ 2,196 343 $ 2,196 344 $ 2,196 345 $ 2,196 346 $ 2,196 347 $ 2,196 348 $ 2,196 349 $ 2,196 350 $ 2,196 351 $ 2,196 352 $ 2,196 353 $ 2,196 354 $ 2,196 355 $ 2,196 356 $ 2,196 357 $ 2,196 358 $ 2,196 359 $ 2,196 360 $ 2,196 361 $ 2,196 362 $ 2,196 363 $ 2,196 364 $ 2,196 365 $ 2,196 366 $ 2,196 367 $ 2,196 368 $ 2,196

369 $ 2,196 370 $ 2,196 371 $ 2,196 372 $ 2,196 373 $ 2,196 374 $ 2,196 375 $ 2,196 376 $ 2,196 377 $ 2,196 378 $ 2,196 379 $ 2,196 380 $ 2,196 381 $ 2,196 382 $ 2,196 383 $ 2,196 384 $ 2,196 385 $ 2,196 386 $ 2,196 387 $ 2,196 388 $ 2,196 389 $ 2,196 390 $ 2,196 391 $ 2,196 392 $ 2,196 393 $ 2,196 394 $ 2,196 395 $ 2,196 396 $ 2,196 397 $ 2,196 398 $ 2,196 399 $ 2,196 400 $ 2,196 401 $ 2,196 402 $ 2,196 403 $ 2,196 404 $ 2,196 405 $ 2,196 406 $ 2,196 407 $ 2,196 408 $ 2,196 409 $ 2,196 410 $ 2,196 411 $ 2,196 412 $ 2,196 413 $ 2,196 414 $ 2,196 415 $ 2,196 416 $ 2,196

417 $ 2,196 418 $ 2,196 419 $ 2,196 420 $ 2,196 421 $ 2,196 422 $ 2,196 423 $ 2,196 424 $ 2,196 425 $ 2,196 426 $ 2,196 427 $ 2,196 428 $ 2,196 429 $ 2,196 430 $ 2,196 431 $ 2,196 432 $ 2,196 433 $ 2,196 434 $ 2,196 435 $ 2,196 436 $ 2,196 437 $ 2,196 438 $ 2,196 439 $ 2,196 440 $ 2,196 441 $ 2,196 442 $ 2,196 443 $ 2,196 444 $ 2,196 445 $ 2,196 446 $ 2,196 447 $ 2,196 448 $ 2,196 449 $ 2,196 450 $ 2,196 451 $ 2,196 452 $ 2,196 453 $ 2,196 454 $ 2,196 455 $ 2,196 456 $ 2,196 457 $ 2,196 458 $ 2,196 459 $ 2,196 460 $ 2,196 461 $ 2,196 462 $ 2,196 463 $ 2,196 464 $ 2,196

465 $ 2,196 466 $ 2,196 467 $ 2,196 468 $ 2,196 469 $ 2,196 470 $ 2,196 471 $ 2,196 472 $ 2,196 473 $ 2,196 474 $ 2,196 475 $ 2,196 476 $ 2,196 477 $ 2,196 478 $ 2,196 479 $ 2,196 480 $ 2,196 481 $ 2,196 482 $ 2,196 483 $ 2,196 484 $ 2,196 485 $ 2,196 486 $ 2,196 487 $ 2,196 488 $ 2,196 489 $ 2,196 490 $ 2,196 491 $ 2,196 492 $ 2,196 493 $ 2,196 494 $ 2,196 495 $ 2,196 496 $ 2,196 497 $ 2,196 498 $ 2,196 499 $ 2,196 500 $ 2,196

$ 2,196 Average Cost

after Replication

Cycle Random #

1 0.09233692592096 4 4 Breakdown 42 0.39717869027066 5 4 Replacement 83 0.39927710624743 5 4 Replacement 124 0.56793435443405 5 4 Replacement 165 0.72690736867465 5 4 Replacement 206 0.56266889967858 5 4 Replacement 247 0.18120181373711 4 4 Breakdown 288 0.25779697373542 5 4 Replacement 329 0.86833783470672 6 4 Replacement 36

10 0.62583958885224 5 4 Replacement 4011 0.36984215562135 5 4 Replacement 4412 0.70693156538384 5 4 Replacement 4813 0.17510833460828 4 4 Breakdown 5214 0.0404973599132 4 4 Breakdown 5615 0.30548755436237 5 4 Replacement 6016 0.69771081230528 5 4 Replacement 6417 0.43086155567842 5 4 Replacement 6818 0.85510351503097 6 4 Replacement 7219 0.33243607441111 5 4 Replacement 7620 0.48149971119928 5 4 Replacement 8021 0.23017925928122 4 4 Breakdown 8422 0.17440803328433 4 4 Breakdown 8823 0.39442304681518 5 4 Replacement 9224 0.84682799728686 6 4 Replacement 9625 0.1220737064308 4 4 Breakdown 10026 0.72955146287131 5 4 Replacement 10427 0.72366487024342 5 4 Replacement 10828 0.27913688302852 5 4 Replacement 11229 0.83963574399342 6 4 Replacement 11630 0.74399950017964 5 4 Replacement 12031 0.46089065634765 5 4 Replacement 12432 0.53266671717657 5 4 Replacement 12833 0.1721928828702 4 4 Breakdown 13234 0.59848769813541 5 4 Replacement 13635 0.36518816554085 5 4 Replacement 14036 0.11211309061139 4 4 Breakdown 14437 0.71979803936819 5 4 Replacement 14838 0.9363053940224 6 4 Replacement 15239 0.71893298564586 5 4 Replacement 15640 0.41695670666837 5 4 Replacement 16041 0.45244396014342 5 4 Replacement 16442 0.63237176083141 5 4 Replacement 16843 0.56547379162494 5 4 Replacement 17244 0.19639801844232 4 4 Breakdown 176

Breakdown Time

Scheduled Replacement Time

Cycle Concluding Event

Day # in Production

45 0.90875344363265 6 4 Replacement 18046 0.78217520102694 6 4 Replacement 18447 0.03109212805422 4 4 Breakdown 18848 0.56112055087445 5 4 Replacement 19249 0.39519570113946 5 4 Replacement 19650 0.0397311250222 4 4 Breakdown 20051 0.24229452093832 4 4 Breakdown 20452 0.40280200401592 5 4 Replacement 20853 0.09837513591111 4 4 Breakdown 21254 0.31904631942665 5 4 Replacement 21655 0.62347247172726 5 4 Replacement 22056 0.08672883135974 4 4 Breakdown 22457 0.26844957280696 5 4 Replacement 22858 0.41378279781581 5 4 Replacement 23259 0.00838595287121 4 4 Breakdown 23660 0.72248012817753 5 4 Replacement 24061 0.23366379572702 4 4 Breakdown 24462 0.76948571990956 6 4 Replacement 24863 0.7309992309323 5 4 Replacement 25264 0.60761691429887 5 4 Replacement 25665 0.79490131502769 6 4 Replacement 26066 0.33617121464152 5 4 Replacement 26467 0.47434803403801 5 4 Replacement 26868 0.10324519290085 4 4 Breakdown 27269 0.63226102897044 5 4 Replacement 27670 0.28211120224111 5 4 Replacement 28071 0.31358847882726 5 4 Replacement 28472 0.18285727960887 4 4 Breakdown 28873 0.73433145328472 5 4 Replacement 29274 0.04307922876802 4 4 Breakdown 29675 0.86735173333768 6 4 Replacement 30076 0.20361542056728 4 4 Breakdown 30477 0.74460480626355 5 4 Replacement 30878 0.57118753889736 5 4 Replacement 31279 0.48841368018008 5 4 Replacement 31680 0.06070814159355 4 4 Breakdown 32081 0.86684006332858 6 4 Replacement 32482 0.20462216525454 4 4 Breakdown 32883 0.17890900844994 4 4 Breakdown 33284 0.03240142887562 4 4 Breakdown 33685 0.37649587992649 5 4 Replacement 34086 0.38324077455717 5 4 Replacement 34487 0.13404866579223 4 4 Breakdown 34888 0.57226294717856 5 4 Replacement 35289 0.90858918682557 6 4 Replacement 35690 0.94962034618058 6 4 Replacement 36091 0.63030931467177 5 4 Replacement 36492 0.33492991520576 5 4 Replacement 368

93 0.20561896169289 4 4 Breakdown 37294 0.03551280302106 4 4 Breakdown 37695 0.71877235446621 5 4 Replacement 38096 0.25382996083495 5 4 Replacement 38497 0.81612351807416 6 4 Replacement 38898 0.93988999849966 6 4 Replacement 39299 0.76882551250873 6 4 Replacement 396

100 0.75088204719128 6 4 Replacement 400

Cost Probability Day #

$ 11,000 $ 11,000 0.25 0 4 $ 6,000 $ 17,000 0.5 0.25 5 $ 6,000 $ 23,000 0.25 0.75 6 $ 6,000 $ 29,000 $ 6,000 $ 35,000 Breakdown cost $ 11,000 $ 6,000 $ 41,000 Replacement Cost $ 6,000 $ 11,000 $ 52,000 Replacement Day 4 $ 6,000 $ 58,000 Average Cost $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 64,000 $ 6,000 $ 70,000 $ 6,000 $ 76,000 $ 6,000 $ 82,000 Replication Average Cost $ 11,000 $ 93,000 Base $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 104,000 1 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 110,000 2 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 116,000 3 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 122,000 4 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 128,000 5 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 134,000 6 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 140,000 7 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 151,000 8 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 162,000 9 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 168,000 10 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 174,000 11 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 185,000 12 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 191,000 13 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 197,000 14 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 203,000 15 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 209,000 16 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 215,000 17 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 221,000 18 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 227,000 19 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 238,000 20 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 244,000 21 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 250,000 22 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 261,000 23 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 267,000 24 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 273,000 25 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 279,000 26 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 285,000 27 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 291,000 28 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 297,000 29 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 303,000 30 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 314,000 31 $ 1,850

Total Cost of Breakdowns

Cumulative Probablity

Average Cost after Replication 1,812$

$ 6,000 $ 320,000 32 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 326,000 33 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 337,000 34 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 343,000 35 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 349,000 36 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 360,000 37 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 371,000 38 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 377,000 39 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 388,000 40 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 394,000 41 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 400,000 42 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 411,000 43 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 417,000 44 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 423,000 45 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 434,000 46 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 440,000 47 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 451,000 48 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 457,000 49 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 463,000 50 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 469,000 51 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 475,000 52 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 481,000 53 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 487,000 54 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 498,000 55 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 504,000 56 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 510,000 57 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 516,000 58 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 527,000 59 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 533,000 60 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 544,000 61 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 550,000 62 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 561,000 63 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 567,000 64 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 573,000 65 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 579,000 66 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 590,000 67 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 596,000 68 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 607,000 69 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 618,000 70 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 629,000 71 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 635,000 72 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 641,000 73 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 652,000 74 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 658,000 75 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 664,000 76 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 670,000 77 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 676,000 78 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 682,000 79 $ 1,850

$ 11,000 $ 693,000 80 $ 1,850 $ 11,000 $ 704,000 81 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 710,000 82 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 716,000 83 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 722,000 84 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 728,000 85 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 734,000 86 $ 1,850 $ 6,000 $ 740,000 87 $ 1,850

88 $ 1,850 89 $ 1,850 90 $ 1,850 91 $ 1,850 92 $ 1,850 93 $ 1,850 94 $ 1,850 95 $ 1,850 96 $ 1,850 97 $ 1,850 98 $ 1,850 99 $ 1,850

100 $ 1,850 101 $ 1,850 102 $ 1,850 103 $ 1,850 104 $ 1,850 105 $ 1,850 106 $ 1,850 107 $ 1,850 108 $ 1,850 109 $ 1,850 110 $ 1,850 111 $ 1,850 112 $ 1,850 113 $ 1,850 114 $ 1,850 115 $ 1,850 116 $ 1,850 117 $ 1,850 118 $ 1,850 119 $ 1,850 120 $ 1,850 121 $ 1,850 122 $ 1,850 123 $ 1,850 124 $ 1,850 125 $ 1,850 126 $ 1,850 127 $ 1,850

128 $ 1,850 129 $ 1,850 130 $ 1,850 131 $ 1,850 132 $ 1,850 133 $ 1,850 134 $ 1,850 135 $ 1,850 136 $ 1,850 137 $ 1,850 138 $ 1,850 139 $ 1,850 140 $ 1,850 141 $ 1,850 142 $ 1,850 143 $ 1,850 144 $ 1,850 145 $ 1,850 146 $ 1,850 147 $ 1,850 148 $ 1,850 149 $ 1,850 150 $ 1,850 151 $ 1,850 152 $ 1,850 153 $ 1,850 154 $ 1,850 155 $ 1,850 156 $ 1,850 157 $ 1,850 158 $ 1,850 159 $ 1,850 160 $ 1,850 161 $ 1,850 162 $ 1,850 163 $ 1,850 164 $ 1,850 165 $ 1,850 166 $ 1,850 167 $ 1,850 168 $ 1,850 169 $ 1,850 170 $ 1,850 171 $ 1,850 172 $ 1,850 173 $ 1,850 174 $ 1,850 175 $ 1,850

176 $ 1,850 177 $ 1,850 178 $ 1,850 179 $ 1,850 180 $ 1,850 181 $ 1,850 182 $ 1,850 183 $ 1,850 184 $ 1,850 185 $ 1,850 186 $ 1,850 187 $ 1,850 188 $ 1,850 189 $ 1,850 190 $ 1,850 191 $ 1,850 192 $ 1,850 193 $ 1,850 194 $ 1,850 195 $ 1,850 196 $ 1,850 197 $ 1,850 198 $ 1,850 199 $ 1,850 200 $ 1,850 201 $ 1,850 202 $ 1,850 203 $ 1,850 204 $ 1,850 205 $ 1,850 206 $ 1,850 207 $ 1,850 208 $ 1,850 209 $ 1,850 210 $ 1,850 211 $ 1,850 212 $ 1,850 213 $ 1,850 214 $ 1,850 215 $ 1,850 216 $ 1,850 217 $ 1,850 218 $ 1,850 219 $ 1,850 220 $ 1,850 221 $ 1,850 222 $ 1,850 223 $ 1,850

224 $ 1,850 225 $ 1,850 226 $ 1,850 227 $ 1,850 228 $ 1,850 229 $ 1,850 230 $ 1,850 231 $ 1,850 232 $ 1,850 233 $ 1,850 234 $ 1,850 235 $ 1,850 236 $ 1,850 237 $ 1,850 238 $ 1,850 239 $ 1,850 240 $ 1,850 241 $ 1,850 242 $ 1,850 243 $ 1,850 244 $ 1,850 245 $ 1,850 246 $ 1,850 247 $ 1,850 248 $ 1,850 249 $ 1,850 250 $ 1,850 251 $ 1,850 252 $ 1,850 253 $ 1,850 254 $ 1,850 255 $ 1,850 256 $ 1,850 257 $ 1,850 258 $ 1,850 259 $ 1,850 260 $ 1,850 261 $ 1,850 262 $ 1,850 263 $ 1,850 264 $ 1,850 265 $ 1,850 266 $ 1,850 267 $ 1,850 268 $ 1,850 269 $ 1,850 270 $ 1,850 271 $ 1,850

272 $ 1,850 273 $ 1,850 274 $ 1,850 275 $ 1,850 276 $ 1,850 277 $ 1,850 278 $ 1,850 279 $ 1,850 280 $ 1,850 281 $ 1,850 282 $ 1,850 283 $ 1,850 284 $ 1,850 285 $ 1,850 286 $ 1,850 287 $ 1,850 288 $ 1,850 289 $ 1,850 290 $ 1,850 291 $ 1,850 292 $ 1,850 293 $ 1,850 294 $ 1,850 295 $ 1,850 296 $ 1,850 297 $ 1,850 298 $ 1,850 299 $ 1,850 300 $ 1,850 301 $ 1,850 302 $ 1,850 303 $ 1,850 304 $ 1,850 305 $ 1,850 306 $ 1,850 307 $ 1,850 308 $ 1,850 309 $ 1,850 310 $ 1,850 311 $ 1,850 312 $ 1,850 313 $ 1,850 314 $ 1,850 315 $ 1,850 316 $ 1,850 317 $ 1,850 318 $ 1,850 319 $ 1,850

320 $ 1,850 321 $ 1,850 322 $ 1,850 323 $ 1,850 324 $ 1,850 325 $ 1,850 326 $ 1,850 327 $ 1,850 328 $ 1,850 329 $ 1,850 330 $ 1,850 331 $ 1,850 332 $ 1,850 333 $ 1,850 334 $ 1,850 335 $ 1,850 336 $ 1,850 337 $ 1,850 338 $ 1,850 339 $ 1,850 340 $ 1,850 341 $ 1,850 342 $ 1,850 343 $ 1,850 344 $ 1,850 345 $ 1,850 346 $ 1,850 347 $ 1,850 348 $ 1,850 349 $ 1,850 350 $ 1,850 351 $ 1,850 352 $ 1,850 353 $ 1,850 354 $ 1,850 355 $ 1,850 356 $ 1,850 357 $ 1,850 358 $ 1,850 359 $ 1,850 360 $ 1,850 361 $ 1,850 362 $ 1,850 363 $ 1,850 364 $ 1,850 365 $ 1,850 366 $ 1,850 367 $ 1,850

368 $ 1,850 369 $ 1,850 370 $ 1,850 371 $ 1,850 372 $ 1,850 373 $ 1,850 374 $ 1,850 375 $ 1,850 376 $ 1,850 377 $ 1,850 378 $ 1,850 379 $ 1,850 380 $ 1,850 381 $ 1,850 382 $ 1,850 383 $ 1,850 384 $ 1,850 385 $ 1,850 386 $ 1,850 387 $ 1,850 388 $ 1,850 389 $ 1,850 390 $ 1,850 391 $ 1,850 392 $ 1,850 393 $ 1,850 394 $ 1,850 395 $ 1,850 396 $ 1,850 397 $ 1,850 398 $ 1,850 399 $ 1,850 400 $ 1,850 401 $ 1,850 402 $ 1,850 403 $ 1,850 404 $ 1,850 405 $ 1,850 406 $ 1,850 407 $ 1,850 408 $ 1,850 409 $ 1,850 410 $ 1,850 411 $ 1,850 412 $ 1,850 413 $ 1,850 414 $ 1,850 415 $ 1,850

416 $ 1,850 417 $ 1,850 418 $ 1,850 419 $ 1,850 420 $ 1,850 421 $ 1,850 422 $ 1,850 423 $ 1,850 424 $ 1,850 425 $ 1,850 426 $ 1,850 427 $ 1,850 428 $ 1,850 429 $ 1,850 430 $ 1,850 431 $ 1,850 432 $ 1,850 433 $ 1,850 434 $ 1,850 435 $ 1,850 436 $ 1,850 437 $ 1,850 438 $ 1,850 439 $ 1,850 440 $ 1,850 441 $ 1,850 442 $ 1,850 443 $ 1,850 444 $ 1,850 445 $ 1,850 446 $ 1,850 447 $ 1,850 448 $ 1,850 449 $ 1,850 450 $ 1,850 451 $ 1,850 452 $ 1,850 453 $ 1,850 454 $ 1,850 455 $ 1,850 456 $ 1,850 457 $ 1,850 458 $ 1,850 459 $ 1,850 460 $ 1,850 461 $ 1,850 462 $ 1,850 463 $ 1,850

464 $ 1,850 465 $ 1,850 466 $ 1,850 467 $ 1,850 468 $ 1,850 469 $ 1,850 470 $ 1,850 471 $ 1,850 472 $ 1,850 473 $ 1,850 474 $ 1,850 475 $ 1,850 476 $ 1,850 477 $ 1,850 478 $ 1,850 479 $ 1,850 480 $ 1,850 481 $ 1,850 482 $ 1,850 483 $ 1,850 484 $ 1,850 485 $ 1,850 486 $ 1,850 487 $ 1,850 488 $ 1,850 489 $ 1,850 490 $ 1,850 491 $ 1,850 492 $ 1,850 493 $ 1,850 494 $ 1,850 495 $ 1,850 496 $ 1,850 497 $ 1,850 498 $ 1,850 499 $ 1,850 500 $ 1,850

$ 1,850 Average Cost after

Replication