Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014
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Transcript of Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014
Trends in the World Traditional &
Renewable Heating Markets
Krystyna Dawson
Heating & Renewables
Manager
BSRIA WMI
Mostra, March 2014
2 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Agenda
Energy supply to Europe – uncertainty rising again
Efficiency and Control on the top of the agenda – ErP and its impacts
Space and water heating in Europe
How competitive are renewables in Europe
2020 outlook for main EU heating markets
World heating – hot and cold spots
World Renewables markets
Future prospects for European heating controls
2
3 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Energy supply to Europe
3
First Ukrainian crisis - January 2009
Souce: bbc news
Recent events
are again
threatening the
stability of
supply
Targets for increased share of
RES in electricity production
have been set
US and Europe discovered the
shale gas and fracking
4 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Share of RES & Fracking
4
France Italy Spain Poland Germany UK Belgium
Share of RES
in electricity
generation
2012:17%
2020: 27%
2012: 11%
2020: 38 %
2012: 11%
2020: 31%
2012: 20%
2020: 26%
2012: 27%
2020: 36%
2012:10%
2020: 19%
2012: 8%
2020: 21%
Substantial amounts available
Permits issued
Lots of uncertainty about
environmental impact
and economic viability
Ambitious targets,
High cost
Energy Efficiency,
Management,
Control,
at the top of the
agenda.
5 Excellence in Market Intelligence
ErP - Impact on products
Increase in Combined and Hybrid systems Eco Design
A +++ ≥150%
A ++ ≥125%
A + ≥98%
A ≥90%
B ≥82%
C ≥75%
D ≥36%
E ≥34%
Cogeneration Gas HP
Condensing
boilers
Non-
condensing
boilers
Ground /Water to
water HP
Air to water HP
From 26/9/2015
products with Label
D to G are no longer
allowed to be sold
Hybrid Heat Pumps
Combined CB + ST system
+ enhanced Controls
Fuel cell
Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015
5
6 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Combining systems
Product label
High efficiency
gas boiler
Solar thermal
system (VT)
Temperature
controls
System label example:
89%
6%
4%
+
+
System
efficiency 99%
A + ≥98%
System label
Separate labelling for
Space Heating and SHW.
6
7 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Technology shift
Domestic gas & oil boiler sales, 2012 - 2017
Outside the EU market
12% 15%
88%
85%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2012 2017
Inside the EU market ‘000 units ‘000 units
70%
85%
30%
15%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2012 2017
non-condensing
condensing
7
8 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Water Heating Europe
8
Water Heating market,
by type of provision, 2013
Water Heating market
by type of provision, 2010
• Combi boilers have been the most
popular product.
• The share of ST systems has fallen.
Based on BSRIA market analysis for 19 European countries
Electric storage
41%
Gas storage
1%
Electric inst 8%
Gas inst 10%
Combi boilers
35%
ST systems
5%
SHWHP 0%
ST Water Heaters
3% SHW HP
1%
Combi boilers 41%
Electric storage
38%
Gas storage 1%
Electric instantaneous
8%
Gas instantaneous
8%
9 Excellence in Market Intelligence
European Solar thermal Market
2012 - 2017
‘000 m2
9
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2012
2013
2017
2012 – 2.8 mln m2
2017 – 3.2 mln m2
CAGR 2.2%
10 Excellence in Market Intelligence
European Heat Pump market
2012 – 2017
CAGR
2012 – 2017
Cylinder-
integrated WH:
17%
Split:
14%
Exhaust-air:
1%
Monobloc:
5%
Ground /
Water: 1%
2013 Ground/Water sales:
64,200
Split: 84,300
Monobloc: 78,800
Cylinder-integrated WH:
156,300 Exhaust air:
13,800
Based on data for: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Switzerland, UK
10
Split: 153,700
Monobloc: 73,200
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Cylinderintegrated HPWH
Split A/W Monoblock A/W Exhaust air HP Ground source HP
2012
2013
2017
units
11 Excellence in Market Intelligence
How competitive are renewables
in Europe
11
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
GCB GCB+Combi ST HP HP + Combi ST Hybrid HP Fuel cell
Operating cost, € per year, 2013 (existing dwellings)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
GCB GCB+Combi ST HP HP + Combi ST Hybrid HP Fuel cell
Germany
UK
Lifetime cost, € per year, 2013 (existing dwellings)
12 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heating Market Value by region, 2012
North America
Radiators 0%
UFH 7%
WH 74%
CB 5%
DB** 14%
Total: US$ 5,658 million
Radiators 1%
UFH 6%
WH 79%
CB 2%
DB 12%
Japan
Total: US$ 5,214 million
Radiators 23%
UFH 11%
WH 23%
CB 4%
DB 39%
Europe* Total: US$ 18,897 million
• Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands,
Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech
Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine
** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces.
Population (million inhabitants)
USA + Canada Europe Japan China
352 778 127 1,360
12
China Total: US$ 7,100 million
Radiators 20%
UFH 19%
WH 47%
CB 5%
DB 9%
13 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heating hot and cold spots, 2013
Warm spots ≥10-20%
Cold spots <0%
Hot spots ≥20%
Cool spots ≥0-10%
2012/2011 value growth
Belgium
Russia
China
North America
Turkey
Netherlands
Sweden
Spain Japan
France Germany
Italy
Norway
South Korea
Products included: Domestic boilers, commercial boilers, traditional water heaters, radiators & wet underfloor heating.
UK
13
Poland
Iran
14 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Water Heating market,
by technology
14
EIWH 36%
ESWH 36%
GIWH 20%
GSWH 8% OSWH
0%
Global market:
89.8 million units
2012 Sales volume per technology
0 5000 10000 15000
China
North America
Russia
France
Italy
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
China
Japan
Russia
North America
Spain
0200040006000
North America
China
Italy
France
Germany
02004006008001000
China
Germany
Russia
North America
Turkey
To
p 5
GIW
H m
ark
et
To
p 5
ES
WH
ma
rke
t
To
p 5
EIW
H m
ark
et
To
p 5
GS
WH
ma
rke
t
15 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Renewable Market Value by region, 2012
* Europe HP, ST & HRV includes 13 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany, Italy,
Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom,, Czech Republic, Poland.
Europe CHP / FC & Gas HP includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Poland
15
Europe* Total: US$ 4,604 mln
El. Hydronic HP
10%
ST systems 13%
Gas HP 0%
CHP/ Fuel Cells 21%
Heat recovery
56%
El. HP 44.7%
Solar Thermal s
27.6%
Gas HP) 1.1%
CHP/ Fuel Cells.5%
Heat recovery
21.1%
USA Total: US$ 343.0 mln
El. Hydronic
HP 75%
ST systems
2%
Gas HP 0%
CHP/ Fuel Cells 22%
Heat recovery
1%
Japan Total: US$ 3,207 mln
El. Hydronic
HP 11%
ST systems 45%
Gas HP 0%
CHP/ Fuel Cells 43%
Heat recovery
1%
China Total: US$ 10,116 mln
16 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World hydronic Heat Pump Market by value, 2012
16
Regional market, share by value Top 10 ranking by country, US$ mln
105.9
107.9
116.9
136.9
196.1
277
362.6
662.9
1177.6
2,398
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Finland
Italy
Australia
Austria
Switzerland
Sweden
France
Germany
China
Japan
Total market: US$ 6,022 million
38.0% 61.3%
0.7%
Europe Asia Pacific Americas
17 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heat pump Major players
17
Top 10 players by value 2012, US$ million
Panasonic, 796
Mitsubishi Electric, 656.1
Daikin, 644.3
Corona, 359.2
Nibe 275.1
Bosch Thermotechnik,
218.4
Midea, 213.4
Stiebel Eltron, 151.8
Glen Dimplex, 133.9
Viessmann, 102.5
1
2
3
18 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Solar Thermal Market by value, 2012
18
6,125
1,341.6
575.6 211.3 38.5
Asia Pacific
Europe
Americas
India
Africa
Regional market, share by value
59.2
73.8
89.1
120.8
181.6
204.1
329.2
456.3
668.2
5,720.2
Japan
Mexico
Italy
Poland
Turkey
India
Australia
Brazil
Germany
China
Top 10 ranking by country, US$ mln
Total market: 8,292 million US$
19 Excellence in Market Intelligence
European heating controls
19
‘000 units
Traditional heating controls sales (DE, F, UK), 2012 / 2020
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2012 2020
TRV other valves
dampers/actuators system controls
Room Thermostats
22% growth
72%
94%
81%
28%
6%
19%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
France UK Germany
Smart home controls*
Traditional heatingcontrols
Traditional & smart home controls market, 2012
€ million
20 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Thank you
Contact:
Krystyna Dawson
Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836
Email: [email protected]