Heat Roadmap Europe2050

STUDY FOR THE EU27

by

for

Aalborg University David ConnollyBrian Vad MathiesenPoul Alberg ØstergaardBernd MöllerSteffen NielsenHenrik Lund

Halmstad UniversityUrban PerssonDaniel NilssonSven Werner

Ecofys Germany GmbHJan GrözingerThosmas BoersmansMichelle Bosquet

PlanEnergiDaniel Trier

STUDY FOR THE EU27

Why this study?The heating and cooling sector has largely

been overlooked in all scenarios exploring the energy future towards 2050.

This study focuses on the future European heat and cooling market and its importance in terms of cost-savings, job creation, investments, and a smarter energy system

Existing StudiesExisting scenario reports:

Fail to provide proper analysis of heating and coolingHave a too low time and geographical resolution to model

the realities of the energy market, especially DHCAcknowledge the importance of DHC until 2030/2050, butAssume high shares of electric heating, low heat

consumption, and low shares of DHC by 2050

General Consensus: ”Combined heat & power (CHP) and district heating (DH) are important”

The European Commission in the Energy Roadmap 2050 communication:“An analysis of more ambitious energy efficiency measures and cost-

optimal policy is required. Energy efficiency has to follow its economic potential. This includes questions on to what extent urban and spatial

planning can contribute to saving energy in the medium and long term; how to find the cost-optimal policy choice between insulating buildings to

use less heating and cooling and systematically using the waste heat of electricity generation in combined heat and power plants.”

. . . but fail to quantify to which extent these options can be used in the future energy system . . .

The EU is wasting energy (heat)...

Primary

Energy

Supply

Final C

onsum

ption

End U

se0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Non-specifiedNon-energy useTransportElectricityHeat for IndustryHeat for Buildings

Ener

gy B

alan

ce fo

r the

EU

27 in

201

0 (E

J)

… while >70% of EU citizens live in Urban Areas…

… and 6000 District Heating systems already exist in the EU

What is this Study?Two Reports:

Pre-study 1 (2012): is DHC beneficial in a business-as-usual scenario

Pre-study 2 (2013): is DHC beneficial in a low-heat demand scenario

MethodologyGIS Mapping

District Heating Demands

District Heating Resources

Energy System Modelling

BAU (References)

District Heating Alternatives

Results (PES, CO2, Costs)

Urban areas (Heating Demands) Power and Heat Generation Waste Management Industrial waste heat potential Geothermal heat Solar Thermalthe study indicates that the

market shares for district heating for buildings can be increased to 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050.

GIS Mapping:Many Heat Sources

Energy Systems Analyses Model

CHP

Boiler

Electro-lyser

Heatpump and

electric boiler

PP

RES electricity

Fuel

RES heat

Hydro water Hydro storage

Hydro power plant

H2 storage

Electricity storagesystem

Import/Export

fixed and variable

Electricitydemand

Cooling device

Coolingdemand

Transport demand

Processheat

demandIndustry

Cars

Heat storage

Heat demand

www.EnergyPLAN.eu

Pre-Study 1(2012)

Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a business-as-usual

scenario?

2010 ModellingIEA Data

2010 Model

District Heating Alternatives

Ref = 12% DH2010 = 30% DH2010= 50% DH

Results(PES, CO2, Costs)

IEA Statistics 

District Heating Benefits in 2 steps

Step 1: (Energy Efficiency)- Increasing DH to 30% then 50%- Increasing CHP- Using Oil/Natural gas in CC-CHPStep 2: (Utilise waste and RE sources)- Industrial waste heat- Waste incineration- Geothermal heat- Large-scale Solar Thermal

Year 2010Step 1: Energy Efficiency

Present 12% DH

30% DH 50% DH

IEA HRE

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500

0100200300400500600700

EU27 Primary Energy Supply and CO2 for Heating Buildings in 2010 at Different DH Penetrations

Existing CHP & DHAdditional CHP & DHOther renewableBiomassNatural gasCoalNuclearCO2 Emissions

Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (T

Wh)

CO2

Emiss

ions

(Mt)

Year 2010Step 2: Utilise

Resources

Present 12% DH

30% DH with RE

50% DH with RE

IEA HRE

0500

1,0001,5002,000

2,5003,0003,500

0100

200300400

500600

700

EU27 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for Heating Buildings in 2010 at Different DH Penetrations while

also Utilising RE ResourcesExisting CHP & DHAdditional CHP & DHOther renewableBiomassNatural gasCoalNuclearCO2-emissions

Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (T

Wh)

CO

2 Em

issi

on (M

t)

Present 12% DH 30% DH with RE

50% DH with RE

IEA HRE

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

EU27 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 in 2010 at Different DH Penetrations while also Utilising RE Resources

Other renewableBiomassNatural gasOilCoalNuclearCO2 Emissions

Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (T

Wh)

CO

2 E

miss

ions

(Mt)

Year 2010Total Energy Supply

7% reduction in Primary Energy Supply

13% reduction in fossil fuels

17% reduction in CO2-emissions

What is a Business-as-Usual Scenario?

Energy Roadmap 2050Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the

National Technical University in Athens

Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27:Reference: Business-as-usualCPI: Updated business-as-usualEE: Energy EfficiencyCCS: Carbon Capture and StorageNuclearHigh Renewable Energy

Designing the DHC Alternatives

EU CPIPRIMES Data

2030 & 2050 Model

District Heating Alternatives

2010 = 12% DH2030 = 30% DH2050= 50% DH

Results(PES, CO2, Costs)

EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Current Policy Initiatives (CPI)

Year 2030 & 2050:Steps 1 & 2

EU Energy Roadmap

2050

2010Present

12% DH

203030% DH

& RE

205050% DH

& REIEA HRE

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

District Heating Production for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050

BoilerSolar thermalGeothermal heatHeat pumpsWaste incinerationIndustrial surplus heatAdditional CHPExisting CHP

Dis

trict

Hea

ting

Prod

uctio

n (T

Wh)

IEA12% DH

EP CPI10% DH

HRE30% DH

with RE

EP CPI10% DH

HRE50% DH

with RE2010 2030 2050

0500

1000150020002500300035004000

-1000100200300400500600700

Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050

EP CPI vs. HRE RE

Existing CHP & DHAdditional CHP & DHOther renewableBiomassNatural gasCoalNuclearCO2 Emission

Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (T

Wh)

CO

2 Em

issi

ons (

Mt)

Year 2030 & 2050:Total Energy Supply

EU Energy Roadmap

2050

IEA12% DH

EP CPI10% DH

HRE30% DHwith RE

EP CPI10% DH

HRE50% DHwith RE

2010 2030 2050

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

4000

EU27 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 from 2010 to 2050EP CPI vs HRE RE

Other RenewablesBiomassNatural gasOilCoalNuclearCO2 Emissions

Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (T

Wh)

CO

2-em

issi

ons (

Mt)HRE 2050 compared to EU CPI 2050:

5% reduction in Primary Energy Supply

10% reduction in fossil fuels

13% reduction in CO2-emissions

Cost and Jobs Saved fuel costs

of annual approx. 30 Billion EUR in 2050

In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050

Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EUR

Additional jobs from to 2013 to 2050: 8-9 million man-year in total

Approx. 220,000 jobs.

IEA EP CPI HRE RE EP CPI HRE RE2010 2030 2050

020406080

100120140

Annual EU27 Costs for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050

Fuel Fixed operation costsAnnual investment costs

Ann

ual H

eatin

g B

uild

ing

Cos

ts

(Bill

ion

Eur

o)

HRE1 Conclusion: 50% DH and CHP Decrease primary energy supply and

especially fossil fuels and CO2 emissions

Decrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approximately €14 Billion in 2050

Create additional 220,000 jobs over the period 2013-2050

Further integration of RES

LESS FUEL

LESS MONEY

MORE EU JOBS

MORE RE

Pre-Study 2(2013)

Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a low-heat demand

scenario?

Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by

the National Technical University in Athens

Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27:Reference: Business-as-usualCPI: Updated business-as-usualEnergy Efficiency (EU-EE)Carbon Capture & StorageNuclearHigh Renewable Energy

HRE2: Is district heating a good idea if we implement a lot of energy efficiency in the buildings?

Energy ModellingEU-EE

PRIMES Data2030 & 2050 Model

District Heating Alternatives

2010 = 12% DH2030 = 30% DH2050= 50% DH

Results(PES, CO2, Costs)

EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Energy Efficiency (EE)

Key Measures in the EU-EE Scenario

High renovation rates for existing buildings due to better/more financing and planned obligations for public buildings (more than 2% refurbishment per year)

Passive houses standards after 2020

Obligation of utilities to achieve energy savings in their customers' energy use over 1.5% per year (up to 2020)

Strong minimum requirements for energy generation, transmission and distribution including obligation that existing energy generation installations are upgraded to the

CPI vs. EE

CPI EE CPI EE CPI EE2010 2030 2050

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

RES Nuclear Natural gas Oil Solids

Gro

ss In

land

Con

sum

ptio

n (T

Wh)

Electricity in the EE Scenario

0

20

40

6040

150

2820

45

25

821

4945

18 21 14

64EE 2010 CPI 2050 EE 2050

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

EU-EE ScenarioHeat Demand Concerns

Hot water demand decreases by 50% between 2010 and 2050

Specific Heat Demands reduce by 70% between 2010 and 2050

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

EU-CPI Scenario EU-EE Scenario

Spac

e an

d H

ot W

ater

Hea

t Dem

ands

(TW

h/ye

ar)

Energy Efficiency CostsEU-EE Scenario 63% Drop in Heat Demands

Cost B€300/year 2010-2050

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Heat Demand Reduction (%)

Add

ition

al C

ost o

f Ene

rgy

Effic

ienc

y M

easu

res (

€/kW

h Sa

ved)

HRE-EE Hot Water Growth = +16% Residential and non-residential buildings is expected to grow by 32%

and 42% respectively between 2015 and 2050

Population will grow by 3.2% between 2010 and 2050.

Individuals are likely to take more showers and baths in the future than they do today.

People are not expected to live with one another as much in the future.

At present, there are regions in Europe where the use of hot water is limited due to technical and financial limitations.

HRE-EE Space Heating = -47%

20122016

20202024

20282032

20362040

20442048

20520

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Shallow Renovation

Target Scenario - Shallow Renovation + REN

Target Scenario - Deep Renovation

Spac

e He

ating

Dem

and

(TW

h/ye

ar)

Implementing District Heating1. Individual boilers are replaced by district heating:

30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050Individual heat pumps are not replaced

2. Individual cooling units are replaced with district cooling.10% in 2030 and 20% in 2050Natural cooling and absorption heat pumps are both

used.

Heat Demand by Source

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

GeothermalHeat PumpsDirect ElectricitySolarBiomassGasOilSolidsDistrict HeatingH

eat D

eman

ds (T

Wh/

year

)

Implementing District Heating3. New DH production facilities are constructed:

CHP, boilers, heat pumps, and thermal storage.

4. Additional resources can now be utilised by the district heating network:Industrial surplus heat: 100 TWh/yearDirect geothermal heat: 100 TWh/yearWaste incineration: 150 TWh/yearLarge-scale solar thermal: 100 TWh/yearWind power for large-scale heat pumps: 65 TWh/year

Heat ResourcesPotential:

Power Plants = 2000 TWhIndustry surplus heat = 750 TWhLarge-scale solar thermal = 350 TWhWaste = 200 TWhGeothermal = 120 TWhLarge-scale heat pumps = ?Biomass heat = ?

Total Heat Demand in the EU in 2010 = 3300 TWh

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE Additional Resources

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Industry Waste Incineration^ Geothermal Large-Scale Solar

Hea

t Ava

ilabl

e fr

om U

ncon

vent

iona

l R

esou

rces

due

to D

istri

ct H

eatin

g*

(TW

h/ye

ar)

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE DH Supply

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

IndustryWasteGeothermalSolarHeat PumpsBoilerCHP

Dis

trict

Hea

ting

Supp

ly fo

r Res

iden

tial a

nd

Serv

ices

Bui

ldin

gs (T

Wh/

year

)

Results

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE: Primary Energy Supply & CO2

EU-EE(13% DH)

HRE-EE(30% DH)

EU-EE(13% DH)

HRE-EE(50% DH)

2030 2050

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Biomass Waste RES

Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (T

Wh/

year

)

Car

bon

Dio

xide

Em

issi

ons (

X, M

t/yea

r)

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:Fossil Fuels

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000Nuclear Coal Oil Gas

Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (T

Wh/

year

)

Car

bon

Dio

xide

Em

issi

ons (

X, M

t/yea

r)

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:Heat & Cooling Costs -

15%

0100200300400500600700800

EU-EE(13% DH)

HRE-EE(30% DH)

EU-EE(13% DH)

HRE-EE(50% DH)

2030 2050

Tota

l Cos

ts fo

r Hea

ting

and

Coo

ling

in th

e R

esid

entia

l and

Ser

vice

s Se

ctor

s (B

€/ye

ar)

End-Use Energy Efficiency Investments Heating System InvestmentsCooling System Investments Centralised Electricity & Heat PlantsFuel CO2

Renewables and Energy EfficiencyAdditional Renewables 100 TWh Geothermal 100 TWh large-scale solar 65 TWh wind (due to a

smarter energy system)Context: 2050 total

heat is 2600 TWh

Energy Efficiency Demand side is extremely

important, but eventually it will become expensive

Supply side also has many options: PP converted to CHP 100 TWh surplus industrial

heat 200 TWh heat from waste

incineration

Case Study: Århus

LegendDistrict heating area

Built up areas

Aarhus municipality

Case StudyConclusions

District heating is an attractive solution in areas with a high heat density

District heating can be seen as an efficiency measure similar to reductions in heat demand, because it enables the use of fuels in a more efficient way

Heat reductions in buildings can be combined with district heating so that it is competitive with individual solutions

HRE1 ConclusionsIf we continue under a

business-as-usual scenario, then district heating can:Reduce the PESReduce the CO2 emissionsReduce the costs of the

energy systemUse more renewable energy

HRE2 ConclusionsIf we implement a lot of energy

efficiency measures, then district heating will:Meet the same goals:

Utilise the same amount of fossil fuelsEnable the same CO2 emission

reductionsBUT, Cost approximately 10% less

Study 3?(20??)

Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a ??? scenario?

Research To Be Continued…Develop national plans that connect the

local (mapping) and EU (modelling) results.

Optimise the EU energy system by reducing baseload electricity and developing more smart energy system technologies

4th Generation District Heating: http://www.4dh.dk/

Benefits of District Heating Improves the efficiency of the system (CHP, O&M, etc.)

Creates short-term and long-term flexibility

Enables more renewable energy resources and surplus heat to be utilised

Reduces the thermal capacity necessary

Increases the comfort-levels for the end-user

Thank youNeed a copy of the report?www.heatroadmap.euwww.4dh.dk/hre