Health and climate change: Setting the sceneec.europa.eu/health/ph_information/dissemination/... ·...
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Health and climate change: Setting the scene Dr Bettina Menne WHO, Regional Office for Europe
Transcript of Health and climate change: Setting the sceneec.europa.eu/health/ph_information/dissemination/... ·...
Health and climate change: Setting the scene
Dr Bettina MenneWHO, Regional Office for Europe
What do we talk about?
IPCC, 2007; modified in EU, Annex to the Green Paper
IPCC (2007), Summary for policy makers, working group 2 EU 2 degree C
objective
Our target: avoid additional deaths, disability and morbidity
Ebi, et al, 2005 HOW?
Bingo
Health adaptationResearch results
EC policy strategy 2007
EU health strategy
Green paper on adaptation
Country proposals
WHO global strategy on protecting health from climate change
Targeted information to citizens, health care professionals
Prosperity Good health in aging
Early action in EUIntegrating adaptation `into existing or new policiesIntegrating adaptation `into existing community fundingDevelop new policy responses
Awareness-building and training of medical doctors.Increase information to the population
Information, advocacy
Early warning Improved surveillance and associated action plans
Security(GMES, EU animal strategy)
Protecting from health threats
Integrate adaptation into EU external action
early warning and early detection of infectious diseases; emergency planningsurveillance and monitoring;
Mitigation
HIA of policies and strategies
Solidarity Dynamic health systems
Integrated climate research Review of health policies.
Adaptation.
Research Europe as a world partner(accession, ENP, etc)
Involving European society, business and public sector in the preparation of a strategy
Cooling of buildings; Address thermal comfort;
Health system preparedness
European governance and better regulations(quality of impact assessment
insurance and reserve funds.
Health adaptationResearch results
EC policy strategy 2007
EU health strategy
Green paper on adaptation
Country proposals
WHO global strategy on protecting health from climate change
Targeted information to citizens, health care professionals
Prosperity Good health in aging
Early action in EUIntegrating adaptation `into existing or new policiesIntegrating adaptation `into existing community fundingDevelop new policy responses
Awareness-building and training of medical doctors.Increase information to the population
Information, advocacy
Early warningImproved surveillance and associated action plans
Security(GMES, EU animal strategy)
Protecting from health threats
Integrate adaptation into EU external action
Early warningand early detection of infectious diseases; emergency planningsurveillance and monitoring;
Mitigation
HIA of policies and strategies
Solidarity Dynamic health systems
Integrated climate research Review of health policies.
Adaptation.
Research Europe as a world partner(accession, ENP, etc)
Involving European society, business and public sector in the preparation of a strategy
Cooling of buildings; Address thermal comfort;
Health system preparedness
European governance and better regulations(quality of impact assessment
insurance and reserve funds.
Health adaptationResearch results
EC policy strategy 2007
EU health strategy
Green paper on adaptation
Country proposals
WHO global strategy on protecting health from climate change
Targeted information to citizens, health care professionals
Prosperity Good health in aging
Early action in EUIntegrating adaptation `into existing or new policiesIntegrating adaptation `into existing community fundingDevelop new policy responses
Awareness-building and training of medical doctors.Increase information to the population
Information, advocacy
Early warningImproved surveillance and associated action plans
Security(GMES, EU animal strategy)
Protecting from health threats
Integrate adaptation into EU external action
Early warningand early detection of infectious diseases; emergency planningsurveillance and monitoring;
Mitigation
HIA of policies and strategies
Solidarity Dynamic health systems
Integrated climate research Review of health policies.
Adaptation.
Research Europe as a world partner(accession, ENP, etc)
Involving European society, business and public sector in the preparation of a strategy
Cooling of buildings; Address thermal comfort;
Health system preparedness
European governance and better regulations(quality of impact assessment
insurance and reserve funds.
Health adaptationResearch results
EC policy strategy 2007
EU health strategy
Green paper on adaptation
Country proposals
WHO global strategy on protecting health from climate change
Targeted information to citizens, health care professionals
Prosperity Good health in aging
Early action in EUIntegrating adaptation `into existing or new policiesIntegrating adaptation `into existing community fundingDevelop new policy responses
Awareness-building and training of medical doctors.Increase information to the population
Information, advocacy
Early warningImproved surveillance and associated action plans
Security(GMES, EU animal strategy)
Protecting from health threats
Integrate adaptation into EU external action
Early warningand early detection of infectious diseases; emergency planningsurveillance and monitoring;
Mitigation
HIA of policies and strategies
Solidarity Dynamic health systems
Integrated climate research Review of health policies.
Adaptation.
Research Europe as a world partner(accession, ENP, etc)
Involving European society, business and public sector in the preparation of a strategy
Cooling of buildings; Address thermal comfort;
Health System preparedness
European governance and better regulations(quality of impact assessment
insurance and reserve funds.
Health adaptationResearch results
EC policy strategy 2007
EU health strategy
Green paper on adaptation
Country proposals
WHO global strategy on protecting health from climate change
Targeted information to citizens, health care professionals
Prosperity Good health in aging
Early action in EUIntegrating adaptation `into existing or new policiesIntegrating adaptation `into existing community fundingDevelop new policy responses
Awareness-building and training of medical doctors.Increase information to the population
Information, advocacy
Early warningImproved surveillance and associated action plans
Security(GMES, EU animal strategy)
Protecting from health threats
Integrate adaptation into EU external action
Early warningand early detection of infectious diseases; emergency planningsurveillance and monitoring;
Mitigation
HIA of policies and strategies
Solidarity Dynamic health systems
Integrated climate research Review of health policies.
Adaptation.
Research Europe as a world partner(accession, ENP, etc)
Involving European society, business and public sector in the preparation of a strategy
Cooling of buildings; Address thermal comfort;
Health System preparedness
European governance and better regulations(quality of impact assessment
insurance and reserve funds.
Strain 1:Mainstreaming
Health in all policies
Filling the implementation gaps
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
GreeceBulgaria
RomaniaLatvia
PortugalPoland
SlovakiaHungary
SpainEstonia
ItalyFinland
Czech RepublicGermanySlovenia
IrelandUnited Kingdom
LithuaniaSwedenFrance
NetherlandsDenmark
AustriaNorway
SwitzerlandIceland
Num
ber o
f cas
es p
er 1
00 0
00 p
er y
ear
Males Females
Melanoma incidence rates (age <55) high in N and W Europe
Implementation of actions to reduce children exposure to UV in 26 MS
Exposure to air pollution
PM10 level > AQG for 90% children in WHO/Euro
No improvement in urban AQ in the current decade
No data on AQ for 43% of population in the Region
Exposure to air pollution
Strain 1:Mainstreaming
Health in all policies
Health co-benefits of energy, transport, housing, industry and
agriculture policies
0
25
50
75
100
125
National energy projections (+3% CO2 in 2020) Illustrative projections meeting the EU climatetarget (-20% CO2 in 2020)
Bill
ion
€/yr
Indicative costs for changes in the energy system to meet climate and energy targets Costs for further measures to achieve the targets of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air PollutionCosts for implementing current air pollution legislation
0
25
50
75
100
125
National energy projections (+3% CO2 in 2020) Illustrative projections meeting the EU climatetarget (-20% CO2 in 2020)
Bill
ion
€/yr
Indicative costs for changes in the energy system to meet climate and energy targets Costs for further measures to achieve the targets of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air PollutionCosts for implementing current air pollution legislation
Emission control costs to meet the EU air quality and climate targets
``EU-27, 2020 (Source: IIASA’s GAINS model)
0
25
50
75
100
125
National energy projections (+3% CO2 in 2020) Illustrative projections meeting the EU climatetarget (-20% CO2 in 2020)
Bill
ion
€/yr
Indicative costs for changes in the energy system to meet climate and energy targets Costs for further measures to achieve the targets of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air PollutionCosts for implementing current air pollution legislation
Business as usualNational energy projections
(+3% CO2 in 2020)
Illustrative energy projections meeting the EU climate target
(-20% CO2 in 2020)
€20 bn/yr
Strain 2:Integrating climate change into existing measures, policies and
strategies
Early warning and action
Early warning systems are existing
http://www.euroheat-project.org/dwd/index.php
• EC/WHO set up an intervention platform for EWE
– Best Heat health action plan
– Medium term probability heat forecasting and its effectiveness;
– Criteria for decision making on when to act and how to act;
– Multi – targeted education material including special interest groups;
– Excess mortality in summer times.
Heat Health Action
Strain 2:Integrating climate change into existing measures, policies and
strategies
Anticipating risks
Current Ae. Albopictus distribution
With permission from Schaffner et al,
Strain 3:New health and climate change
developments
Information to citizens and other target groups
Heatwave plan for England: http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/
Option 2 action Extreme weather events
Infectious diseases
UV Animal health
Air pollution Allergic disorders
Information to citizens
Health securityEarly warningDisease surveillance
Health in all policies
Health Systems
Research
Europe in the World
Additional options
Current vulnerability to heat stress
Population Change in all cause mortality per ºC increase in apparent temperature above the threshold
North- 1.84
Mediterranean cities
3.12
All cities 2.45
cCASHh
Phewe
EuroHEAT
Peseta
Comparison of WTP for individuals of different ages: 40- and 65-year olds (average income, not at risk, male, married, no
children)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 5 10 15 20 25
Risk Reduction
Med
ian
WTP
40-year old
65-year old
1970s=? futurepresent
SensitivityMechanismsResponsesCausality?
Early effects?detectionattribution
Additional research is neededEmpirical studies
[epidemiology]
Scenario
Risk Assessment
1960………………………………………….2000………………….2020……2050…….2080…..2100
Effectivenesof action?
The responsibility of Europe in the world
Density equalling cartogram. Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions in billion tonnes carbon equivalent in 2002. Gibbs et al, in prep.
Health impacts of climate change
Density equalling cartogram. WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the year 2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to 2000. Gibbs et al, in prep.
This paper was produced for a meeting organized by Health & Consumer Protection DG and represents the views of its author on thesubject. These views have not been adopted or in any way approved by the Commission and should not be relied upon as a statement of the Commission's or Health & Consumer Protection DG's views. The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the dataincluded in this paper, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof.
