HDD Capital Spending And Technology Developments From 2012 -...

YEARS OF DESTINY: HDD CAPITAL SPENDING

AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS FROM

2012-2016

Tom CoughlinEd Grochowski

Coughlin Associates1© 2012 Coughlin Associates

Tom

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Presented at IEEE Santa Clara Valley Magnetics Society Meeting, June 19, 2012

WW DISK CAPACITY SHIPMENTS (1999 THROUGH 2016).

6© 2012 Coughlin Associates

88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116

Production Year

1E+3

1E+4

1E+5

1E+6

1E+7

1E+8

1E+9

1E+10

1E+11

1E+12

Byt

es S

hipp

ed/Y

ear

CGR = 75%

1021

1020

1019

1018

1017

1016

1015

2000 04 08 12 16

1022

1023

1024

11A.

PRZ

HDD Exabyte CurveFrom Multiple SourcesEd Grochowski/Tom Coughlin

Petabytes

Exab

ytes

Zetabytes

Tom

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2

AVERAGE $/GB FOR HDDS AND FLASH MEMORY.


1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

DRAMFlash

DesktopMobile

Enterprise1"

Average Retail Prices of Storage

Ed Grochowski 2011

32 GB Flash

Desktop HDD

Mobile HDD

1 " HDD

DRAM/Flash

3 TB Desktop

1.5TB Desktop 500 GB Mobile Drive

300 GB/15K Server

750 GB Desktop

2TB Desktop

Enterprise HDD

Tom

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3

HDD AREAL DENSITY GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS.


90 95 100 105 110 115

Production Year

1E+1

1E+2

1E+3

1E+4

1E+5

1E+6

1E+7A

real

Den

sity

GIg

abits

/in2

HDD ProductsHDD Productsw/PMR

HDD Areal Density Perspective

1st MR Head

1st GMR Head

2000 2005 2010 2015

Ed Grochowski

60% CGR

100% CGR

1st AFC Media

PerpendicularRecording

103

102

10

104

25% CGR

4K Region

40% CGR

HAMR Head

1

10-1

10-2

TMR Head

>300 Million X Increase

25% CGR

104

103

102

10

1

10-1

10-2

SMR BPMMAMR?

Tom

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4

AREAL DENSITY GROWTH OF HDDS AND FLASH MEMORY


90 95 100 105 110 115

Production Year

1E+1

1E+2

1E+3

1E+4

1E+5

1E+6

1E+7A

real

Den

sity

GIg

abits

/in2

HDDProductsFlashProducts

HDD/Flash Areal Density Perspective

1st MR Head

1st GMR Head

2000 2005 2010 2015

Copyright Ed Grochowski

60% CGR

100% CGR

1st AFC Media


103

102

10

1044K SectorRegion

40% CGR

1

10-1

10-2

TMR Head

16MB64MB

256MB

512MB

1 GB2 GB

4 GB8 GB

16 GB (2 MLC)32 GB (2 MLC)

64 GB (3 MLC ?)8 GB 20nm

Tom

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5

BANDED HDD UNIT VOLUME ESTIMATES.


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

High EstimateMedian EstimateLow Estimate

Tom

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6

ESTIMATES OF DRIVE, HEADS AND DISKS TO 2016.


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016MAGNETIC HEADS 1,241,136 1,424,939 1,521,262 1,764,546 1,720,248 1,741,597 2,027,086 2,403,859 2,792,790 3,291,203MAGNETIC DISKS 789,104 897,439 955,515 1,109,600 1,070,733 1,080,392 1,239,668 1,471,683 1,782,153 2,046,655DISK DRIVES 501,400 539,583 563,600 653,604 622,592 606,876 690,789 787,616 899,840 1,026,885

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Units

(tho

usan

ds)

MAGNETIC HEADS

MAGNETIC DISKS

DISK DRIVES

Tom

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7

PROJECTIONS FOR HDD CAPACITES AT VARIOUS FORM FACTORS


98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116

Availability Year

1

10

100

1000

10000H

DD

Cap

acity

, GB

ytes

HDD CapacityRoadmap

2000 02 04 06 08 2010 12 14 16

HD

D ro

adm

ap20

11B.

prz

Ed Grochowski/Tom Coughlin

1 GB

8.1 GB

1.0 inch

2.5 inch

3.5 inch form factor

4 GB

20 GB

1.8 inch12 GB

250 GB

300 GB

750GB Server 10K RPM2000 GB Desktop 7200 RPM

36GB Server15K RPM

750 GB

4TB Mobile 5400 RPM

12TB Desktop 7200 RPM

300 GB Server15K RPM 1.5TB

2.5TB Server 10K RPM

Tom

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8

INDUSTRY HDD MTBF SPECIFICATIONS.


1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Product Ship Date

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

2400A

s sp

ecifi

ed M

TBF,

khr

s.Industry HDD MTBF Specifications

Ed Grochowski

Tom

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9

HDD TECHNOLOGY INTRODUCTION WITH UNIT VOLUME GROWTH.


2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Production Year

0

400

800

1200

0

HD

D U

nits

, Mill

ions

HDD Production RoadmapTechnologies Introduction

PMR HeadsTMR Heads

8 Inch Head Substrates

TFC

PBM

HAMRFePt

Ed Grochowski/Tom Coughlin

HD

D P

rodu

ctio

n R

oadm

ap 2

011B

Imprint Tooling

AFC Media

DSA

MAMR

E E E

Shingled Write

4K Sectors

Triple Patterning

Tom

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10

BLOCK OVERWRITING PROCESS IN SMR

© 2012 Coughlin Associates 30

Tom

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11

AREAL DENSITY AND DISK COERCIVITY EVOLUTION.

45© 2012 Coughlin AssociatesDisk Coercivity, KOe

Areal D

ensity, G

bits/in2

ServerDesktopMobile

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1000

100

10

1

0.1

Write Head Limits

AFC Media


Tom

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12

LITHOGRAPHY ROADMAP SHOWING HDD HEAD AND BPM/BPM TRENDS VS. ITRS

SEMICONDUCTOR REQUIREMENTS.


2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Production Year

10

100

1000

Line

wid

th (n

m)

800

80

600

60

400

40

200

20

ITR

S R

oadm

ap20

11.p

rz

193

nm L

ithog

raph

yW

ater

Imm

ersi

onLithography RoadmapBased on Multiple Sources

PBM

201619

3 nm

Lith

ogra

phy

Imm

ersi

on

Dou

ble

Patte

rn

193

nm L

ithog

raph

yIm

mer

sion

, Im

prin

t EU

V, S

elf A

ssm

.Tr

iple

Pat

tern

Tom

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13

SELF-ALIGNING DOUBLE PATTERN LITHOGRAPHY

Ed Grochowski

First Pattern PhotoresistOn Hardmask layer

Deposition

First PatternRemoval

Final PatternTrim Mask Required

XX

Spacer FormationBy Etching

Etching WithSpacer Mask

X/2


Tom

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14


EXPERIMENTAL EUV EXPOSURE TOOL

Source O. Wood GLOBALFOUNDRIES

6-L.ayer Reflective Optics

EUV Exposure Tool

Rllllectlwt MDk

illuminator Optics ......

Wafer HP = k1A1NA

Tom

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15

MAGNETIC RECORDING TRILEMMA.


Writeability(2.4 Tesla)

Thermal StabilityKuV/kT

SNR Log10 N

Tom

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16

HEAT ASSISTED MAGNETIC RECORDING


Coercivity

Media Temperature

Head Field

Toperating Twrite

Heating

Cooling

Source: Seagate Technology Corp.

Tom

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17

EVOLUTION OF PERPENDICULAR MAGNETIC RECORDING MEDIA.


< ~ }

~ Early PMR Media

Lubricant +Carbon OVercoat

Hard Magnetic Layer

Ru Exchange Layer

Magnetic Underlayer Ru Exchange Layer Magnetic Underlayer

Soft Underlayer

Seed

B-Layer ECC Media

Tom

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18

ADVANCED ECC MAGNETIC MEDIA STRUCTURES


Tom

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19

BLOCK COPOLYMER SELF ASSEMBLY.

(Photo Courtesy IBM Almaden Research Center)


Tom

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20

STRUCTURE OF TMR AND GMR CPP SENSORS.


NiFe Bottom ShieldCurrent Direction

NiFe Top Shield

ConductingNon-Conducting

CPP TMR

CPP GMR

CPP

GM

R T

MR

2011

Magnet

Seed Layer

Reference Layer

AFM

Pinned LayerRu

CuFree Layer

Cap

CPP TMR Read Head Technology

Seed Layer

Reference Layer

AFM

Pinned LayerRu

MgO BarrierFree Layer

Cap

Seed Layer

Reference Layer

AFM

Pinned LayerRu

MgO BarrierFree Layer

Cap

Tom

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21

HDD COMPONENT TESTING/METROLOGY ROADMAP VS.

AREAL DENSITY.


100 105 110 115

Production Year

1E+4

1E+5

1E+6

1E+7

Are

al D

ensi

ty G

Igab

its/in

2

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014E 2016E

Edward Grochowski

103

102

10

104

HDD Metrology Roadmap

0.5 x-y100 C z

0.5 x-y80 C z

0.5 x-y50 C z

0.1 x-y20 C z

0.1 x-y10 C z

AFM

AOI

High ResolutionAOI

Interferometry/ReflectivityMedia Defect Detection

Ellipsometry

Beam Deconvolution

5% Magnetic Sampling

High ResolutionOptical Testing

3D MetrologyAdvanced Vibrometry

100% OpticalTesting

Tom

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22

HEAT ASSISTED MAGNETIC RECORDING WITH LASER SOURCE IN

THE HEAD


Tom

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23

HEAT MICROWAVE ASSISTED MAGNETIC RECORDING (MAMR)

PROCESS


MA

MR

2011

C.c

dr

Writing Pole Trailing Shield

Disk Media

Soft Underlayer

I

Electrode Electrode

Easy axisOscillating stack

Ref: Prof Jimmy Zhu, CMU

Layer withperpendicular

Anisotropy

Field generationlayer (FGL)

MetalInterlayer

Perpendicularlymagnetized

reference layer

Tom

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24

DEVELOPMENT OF BIT ASPECT RATIO WITH TIME.


92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116

Availability Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30B

it A

spec

t Rat

io

Server-BARDesktop-BARMobile-BAR

92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Projected Future Trend

Tom

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25

TRACK DENSITY, LINEAR DENSITY AND AREAL DENSITY TRENDS.


90 94 98 102 106 110 114

Production Year

1E+1

1E+2

1E+3

1E+4

1E+5

1E+6

Are

al D

ensi

ty, m

bits

/in2

Track, Areal, Linear Density Perspective

105

104

103

102

10

Line

ar D

ensi

ty, k

bits

/in

Trac

k D

ensi

ty, t

rack

s/in

p

Circles = Server productsSquares = Mobile products

Triangles = Desktop products106

90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Ed Grochowski

AD CGR = 25%

Track CGR = 16%

Linear CGR = 8%

106

105

104

103

102

Tom

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26

HDD SPACING AND AREAL DENSITY RELATIONSHIP.


1 10 100

Physical Spacing, nm

1

10

100

1000Areal Den

sity, G

bits/in2

Lab Demos2.5/1.8 inchmobile HDD3.5 inchServer HDD3.5 inchDesktopHDD

Ed GrochowskiThermal FlyingHeight Control

ContactRecording

Includes Take‐off Height

Tom

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27

HDD COMPANY REVENUE AND INDUSTRY CAPITAL EQUIPMENT

SPENDING ESTIMATES (2007 TO 2016).Year Total HDD Est.

Revenue Total HDD

Industry Capital Est. Equipment

Spending

% Capital Equipment

Spending/Revenue

2007 $32.6 B $2.28 B 7.0% 2008 $32.9 B $2.37 B 7.2% 2009 $30.2 B $1.35 B 4.5% 2010 $34.8 B $3.01 B 8.6% 2011 $41.5 B $3.64 B 8.8% 2012 $48.5 B $4.23 B 8.7% 2013 $54.2 B $4.83 B 8.9% 2014 $60.5 B $5.66 B 9.4% 2015 $67.6 B $6.77 B 10.0%

Total (2007-2015)

$402.7 B $34.14 B 8.1% (avg)


Tom

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HDD Capital Spending And Technology Developments From 2012 -...

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