Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.
-
Upload
colt-parsley -
Category
Documents
-
view
221 -
download
1
Transcript of Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.
![Page 1: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Happiness
Andrew J. OswaldUniversity of Warwick
Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge
![Page 2: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Economics is changing
![Page 3: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Economics is changing
Researchers are studying mental wellbeing.
![Page 4: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Economics is changing
Researchers are studying mental wellbeing.
We are drawing closer to psychology and medicine.
![Page 5: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Could we learn how to …
![Page 6: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
.. make whole countries happier?
![Page 8: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
So how does this research proceed?
![Page 9: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Using large random samples of individuals from many nations:
Researchers examine what influences the psychological wellbeing of
(i) individuals
(ii) nations.
![Page 10: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
A taste of research (1)
Happiness is high among:
![Page 11: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
A taste of research (1)
Happiness is high among:
Women
![Page 12: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
A taste of research (1)
Happiness is high among:
Women
People with lots of friends
![Page 13: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
A taste of research (1)
Happiness is high among:
Women
People with lots of friends
The young and old
![Page 14: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
A taste of research (1)
Happiness is high among:
Women
People with lots of friends
The young and old
Married and cohabiting people
![Page 15: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
A taste of research (1)
Happiness is high among:
Women
People with lots of friends
The young and old
Married and cohabiting people
The highly educated
![Page 16: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
A taste of research (1)
Happiness is high among:
WomenPeople with lots of friendsThe young and oldMarried and cohabiting peopleThe highly educatedThe healthy
![Page 17: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
A taste of research (1)
Happiness is high among:
WomenPeople with lots of friendsThe young and oldMarried and cohabiting peopleThe highly educatedThe healthyThose with high income
![Page 18: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
A taste of research (2)
Happiness is particularly low among:
![Page 19: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
A taste of research (2)
Happiness is particularly low among:
The unemployed
![Page 20: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
A taste of research (2)
Happiness is particularly low among:
The unemployed
Newly divorced and separated people
![Page 21: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
A taste of research (2)
Happiness is particularly low among:
The unemployed
Newly divorced and separated people
ps… and children have no effect on happiness
![Page 22: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
A taste of research (3)
Economic growth does not make an industrialized country happier.
![Page 23: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
A taste of research (3)
Economic growth does not make an industrialized country happier.
Plus there is evidence that stress levels at work, and rates of depression, have been increasing.
![Page 24: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
A taste of research (4)
Noise levels and environmental quality matter to happiness.
![Page 25: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
A taste of research (5)
‘Fear’ depresses happiness.
Countries are happier if they have generous welfare benefits and low unemployment rates.
R. Di Tella, R. Macculloch, A.J. Oswald American Economic Review, 2001.
![Page 26: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Statistical methods
But is it really possible to study happiness and mental wellbeing in a systematic way?
![Page 27: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
• activity in the brain’s pleasure centres• health, smiles, positive emotional arousal, and
future intentions
Self-reported happiness relates strongly to…….
Pleasure centre: septal area of the hypothalamusAmygdala:
emotions
![Page 28: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Brain Responses in Two Pictures(MRI Scans)
Source: Richard Davidson, University of Wisconsin
![Page 29: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Reported happiness is correlated with…
• Person’s assessment of happiness by friends, family and spouse
• How many times the person smiles
• Person’s recall of good and bad events
• Heart rate and blood pressure response to stress
• The risk of getting coronary heart disease
![Page 30: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Typical GHQ mental-strain questions
Have you recently:
Lost much sleep over worry?Felt constantly under strain?Felt you could not overcome your difficulties?Been feeling unhappy and depressed?Been losing confidence in yourself?Been thinking of yourself as a worthless person?
![Page 31: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Some cheery news:
![Page 32: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Some cheery news:
In Western nations, most people are happy with their lives
![Page 33: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
The distribution of life-satisfaction levels among British people
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Per
cen
tag
e o
f P
op
ula
tio
n
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Self-rated Life Satisfaction
Source: BHPS, 1997-2003. N = 74,481
![Page 34: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
But obviously life is a mixture of ups and downs
![Page 35: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Statistically, wellbeing is strongly correlated with life events
..good and bad.
![Page 36: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
4.95
5.00
5.05
5.10
5.15
5.20
5.25
5.30
5.35
5.40
Not Married Married
Avera
ge L
ife S
ati
sfa
cti
on
4.20
4.40
4.60
4.80
5.00
5.20
5.40
Employed Unemployed
Avera
ge L
ife S
ati
sfa
cti
on
Life satisfaction levels…
Source: BHPS, 1997-2003. N = 74,481
A) By Employment Status
A) By Marital Status
![Page 37: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
There is also an intriguing life-cycle pattern
![Page 38: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
There is international evidence that well-being is U-shaped
over the life course
![Page 39: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
The pattern of a typical person’s happiness through life
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
15-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70Age group
Ave
rag
e li
fe s
atis
fact
ion
sco
re
![Page 40: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
This holds in many settings
![Page 41: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
This holds in various settings
For example, we see the same age pattern in the probability of depression among a recent sample of 800,000 UK citizens:
[Blanchflower and Oswald, 2006]
![Page 42: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
The probability of depression by ageMales, LFS data set 2004-2006
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Year of birth
Reg
ress
ion
co
effi
cien
t
![Page 43: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Age at which GHQ-N6 Mental Distress Reaches its Peak:
Age at the maximum N• Belgium 52 1005• Denmark 35 995• Greece 53 984• Italy 49 940• Spain 56 981• France 45 972• Ireland 44 972• Netherlands 47 957• Portugal 60 937• East Germany 46 942• Austria 48 963• UK 47 1285
![Page 44: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Now what about money?
![Page 45: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Now what about money?
The data show that richer people are happier and healthier.
![Page 46: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
In the literature, one broad feature is striking:
![Page 47: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Eg. these are connected:
![Page 48: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
The state of the mind determines the health of the body
![Page 49: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
The state of the mind determines the health of the body
Those with high status live longer (being promoted seems more important than a healthy diet and exercise)
Married people are healthier (marriage offsets smoking)
![Page 50: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
To the gentlemen:
![Page 51: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
To the gentlemen:
If you must smoke,
![Page 52: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
To the gentlemen:
If you must smoke,
it is essential to get married.
![Page 53: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Another intriguing feature of the data:
![Page 54: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Humans are adaptive.
They have amazing resilience: eg. to
(i) divorce
(ii) disability.
![Page 55: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Here we can use recent longitudinal data, with sources like the BHPS.
![Page 56: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
An example
Comparing two years before divorce to two years after, there is an improvement in psychological health (on a GHQ score).
"Do Divorcing Couples Become Happier By Breaking Up?", J. Gardner and A.J.Oswald, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 2006, 169, 319-336.
![Page 57: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Divorce eventually makes people happier
![Page 58: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Human beings also bounce back remarkably from, say, disability.
![Page 59: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
![Page 60: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
However, there is a downside to that adaptability (eg. marriage)
![Page 61: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
However, there is a downside to that adaptability (eg. marriage)
![Page 62: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
What about happiness in whole countries?
![Page 63: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
When a nation is poor, extra riches will raise happiness.
![Page 64: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
When a nation is poor, extra riches will raise happiness.
Say we look at a scatter plot across many countries:
![Page 65: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
TZA
NGA
UGA
MDA
BGD
PAKGEO
VNM
ZWE
IND
ARM
IDN
AZE
MAR
EGY
PHL
JOR
ALB
CHN
UKR
SLV
PER
VEN
BLR
BIHDZA
COL
TUR
MKD
IRN
DOM
ROMBGR
URYBRA
RUS
MEX
LVA
CHL
ZAF
HRV
LTU
POL
ARG
ESTSVK
HUN
CZE
KOR
MLT
PRTSVN
GRC
ISRESP
NZL
SGP
SWEGBRITA
FIN
JPN
FRA
DEUBEL
NLDAUTISLCAN
CHEDNK
USA
IRL
NORLUX
Australia
4
5
6
7
8
Life
Sa
tisfa
ctio
n, W
VS
Ave
rage
Sco
re (
1='D
issa
tisfie
d' t
o 10
='S
atis
fied'
)
2000 5000 10000 20000 35000 60000GDP per capita in US$ at PPP (log scale)
Life Satisfaction = -0.9 + 0.8 * Log GDP (t=8.3)World Values Survey
Life Satisfaction and GDP Per Capita
![Page 66: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Yet
• Growth in income is now not correlated with growth in happiness
• This is the “Easterlin paradox”
![Page 67: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
A simple graph to worry finance ministers all over the world:
![Page 68: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Average Happiness and Real GDP per Capita for Repeated Cross-sections of Americans.
1.8
22.2
2.4
2.6
Mea
n H
app
iness
15
00
018
00
021
00
024
00
0R
eal G
DP
pe
r C
ap
ita
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995Year
Real GDP per Capita Mean Happiness
![Page 69: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Wellbeing is flat through time in the other rich countries
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1973 1977 1980 1983 1986 1988 1990 1993 1996 2000 2004
Year
Ave
rage
Lif
e S
atis
fact
ion
UK France Germany Italy Netherlands
![Page 70: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
and
In the USA, real income levels have risen six-fold over 100 years but:
Year 1900 Suicide rate = 10 in 100,000 people
Year 2005 Suicide rate = 10 in 100,000 people
![Page 71: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Are there diminishing returns to real income?
![Page 72: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Are there diminishing returns to real income?
Very probably yes.
![Page 73: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Source: World Values Survey, 1995
![Page 74: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
1995/2000 World Values Survey resultsLife Satisfaction
World Values Survey
Tanz
Nig
Uga
MOL
BAN
PAK
ZIM
Vietnam
India
MOR
ARM
ALB
SALV Ven
Ukr
Alg
MacBela
Bosn
Colombia
Dom
Iran
Bulgaria
Bra
Rom
Uru
Mexico
Rus
S.AFR
Chile
Lat
CROA
Arg
Lit
ESTSloHun
MALT
CzePORTSlovenia
GRE
New Zealand
Isr Spa SIN
GerItaly
FRA
SWEFin
Australia UKBelgCan
DenNetherlands Austria ICESwi
NorUS
Irl
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $)
IND
EX
the western countries
![Page 75: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Similar results within a nation(though cardinality questionable)
Take American families in 1994 for example
![Page 76: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
So what exactly goes wrong when a wealthy country gets richer?
We are not certain, but..
![Page 77: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Some clues…
• Social comparison (you compare your 3 BMWs to people with 3 BMWs)
• Habituation: people adapt to money
• Mistaken choices (long commutes and working hours)
![Page 78: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
Social Comparisons
![Page 79: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Producing a happier society?
![Page 80: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Possible ideas
• Envy and social comparisons are counter-productive at the aggregate level
• Some argue for a ‘corrective tax’ system – one that reduces work effort to a level where the fruitless incentive to raise your relative income has been fully offset (Frank and Layard)
• In terms of positional goods, e.g. luxury cars – could be taxed much more
![Page 81: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
119
12
77
19
24 25
33
28
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Sweden
Germany
France
UK EU15
Women
Men
Another difficulty: Long working hours in the EU
Graph 1: % of employees working over 45 hours per week
Source: European Working Conditions Survey, 2000
![Page 82: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
Some societies certainly seem to have a work-life balance problem.
![Page 83: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
“I would like to spend much more time with my family” (% workers)
USA 46% New Zealand 26%
Great Britain 36% Switzerland 23%
Sweden 32% Italy 21%
Norway 27% Netherlands 18%
Denmark 26% Japan 9%
Canada 26% Spain 8%
Source: Blanchflower and Oswald (2000a) and International Social Survey Programme, 1997
![Page 84: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
New work on the long ‘shadow’ of childhood
• An individual’s happiness is lower if a parent died before they were 18
• His or her happiness is lower if the parents quarrelled frequently
• The effect of parental arguing on children’s happiness approximately disappears if the parents divorced
![Page 85: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
These childhood findings hold
in 16 countries.
![Page 86: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
We will continue to link up more with science and psychology researchers
Eg. studying cortisol levels.
![Page 87: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
Plus we are learning how to measure the value of subtle
things (eg. Clow’s work)
![Page 88: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
![Page 89: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
Blood pressure patterns too
• Denmark has the lowest reported levels of high blood pressure in our data
• Denmark also has the highest happiness levels
Source: Blanchflower, D.G. and A.J. Oswald (2006d), "Hypertension and happiness across nations"
![Page 90: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Figure 2.The Inverse Correlation Between Hypertension and Life
Satisfaction: 16 European Nations Aggregated into Quartiles
Countries in the Countries in the lowest quartile highest quartile of blood-pressure of blood-pressure
IrelandDenmarkN'LandsSweden
SpainFranceLuxUK Austria
ItalyBelgiumGreece
E. GermanyW. GermanyPortugalFinland
P
erce
nta
ge o
f citi
zens
ver
y sa
tisfie
d w
ith t
heir
live
s
Per
cent
age
of c
itiz
ens
very
sat
isfi
ed w
ith
thei
r li
ves
![Page 91: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
What of broader economic and social policy itself?
![Page 92: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
Gross National Happiness (GNH) Policy in Bhutan
• 4 pillars of public policy - Sustainable and equitable socio-economic development
- Conservation of environment (e.g. banning of plastic bags)
- Preservation and promotion of culture (e.g. ban US programmes and advertising)
- Promotion of good governance
Source: Jigmi Y. Thinley, Minister of Home and Cultural Affairs, Bhutan
![Page 93: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
A finding from our equations
Friends and partners matter much more than money.
![Page 94: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
Valuations (in £)
See friends once a month £57,500 p.a.
See friends once a week £69,500 p.a.
See friends on most days £85,000 p.a.
Getting married £50,500 p.a.
Losing a job - £143,000 p.a.
Source: BHPS, Powdthavee (2006).
How much are social relationships worth in terms of happiness?
![Page 96: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
As a society, we could also pay attention to improving public goods, and the environment in the broadest sense.
![Page 97: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
Summing up
Given our current real income levels:
![Page 98: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
Summing up
Given our current real income levels:
Growth is not making the industrialized nations happier.
![Page 99: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
The natural conclusion
Policy in the coming century will need to concentrate on non-materialistic goals.
![Page 100: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
The natural conclusion
Policy in the coming century will need to concentrate on non-materialistic goals.
GNH not GNP.
![Page 101: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
Thank you for coming
![Page 102: Happiness Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick Risk and Rationalities Lecture, Cambridge.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062419/551c50165503467b488b5217/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
Happiness
Papers downloadable at www.andrewoswald.com
I here owe a great debt to the work of David G Blanchflower, Andrew Clark, Paul Frijters, Nick Powdthavee, and Justin Wolfers