Hanoi Regional Forecasting Support

Centre

SUSTAINING NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

– STRENGTHENING WMO REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CENTERS

 

Presented by Pham Van TanMinistry of Natural Resources and Environment of Vietnam

19 June 2013

Presentation overview

Observation Network and Forecast Technology

Initial results of Hanoi Regional Forecasting Support Center

1

2

3 Challenges, Opportunities

Hydro-Meteorological Stations Network

174 national meteorological observation stations

8 upper-air observation stations

764 rainfall gauges

248 national hydrologicalobservation stations17 marine hydromet stations

Current

Proposed

SaPaSonLa VietTri

PhuLien

HoangSaTamKy

DongHa

PleiKu

NhaBe

CaMau

TruongSa

SaPaSonLa VietTri

PhuLien

HoangSaTamKy

DongHa

PleiKu

NhaBe

CaMau

TruongSa

SaPaSonLa VietTri

PhuLien

HoangSaTamKy

DongHa

PleiKu

NhaBe

CaMau

TruongSa

SaPaSonLa VietTri

PhuLien

HoangSaTamKy

DongHa

PleiKu

NhaBe

CaMau

TruongSa

RADA NETWORK IN VIETNAM

18 lightening detectors will be installed

WB, JICA, Finland

WB

WB

ITALIA

Government

WB

Supports to Modernize Hydro-met system

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction

The NHMS utilizes the following NWP System:

• Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF): 17km, 15 members, multi-model multi-analysis, up to 60h

• Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS): 22km, 21 members, HRM nested in EPS of GFS, up to 120h

• NWP Post-Processing: UMOS + Kalman filter

Hanoi RFSC

• Proposed in the 1st meeting of the SWFDP-SeA RSMT, Sep 2010 in Tokyo

• Selected by WMO mission to Hanoi in Feb 2011 as the lead regional centre under SWFDP-SeA project

• Participated by NMCs of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam

• Aimed to facilitate flow of all forecasting guidance inf. to participating centers through a password-protected website

• Roles are discussing & to be expanded in the future

Target domain

Target severe weather events

• Tropical cyclone track, intensity, structure changes & landfall process (wind & gust, rainfall, storm surge)

• Heavy rain triggered by tropical cyclone, SW & NW monsoon, troughs & ITCZ migration, & orography;

• Thunderstorm & hail associated with severe convection; cold condition & frost;

• Extreme hot & dry conditions associated with fohn effect

Status of Hanoi RFSC

• Regional Subproject Implementation Plan has been developed www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBSReports/documents/RSIP_v4.4.pdf

• The website has been developed and completed with suggestions/comments from participating countries– www.swfdp-sea.com.vn

– Username: swfdp-sea

– Password: RA2 (case sensitive)

Products Contents Status

Guidance Products issued by forecaster

Short-range (1-2 days) Medium-range (3-5 days)

Semi-Operation

Satellite-based 0-24 Hour Products

Satellite Image: MTSAT-2 Satellite-Based Rainfall (Qmorph)Convective Thunderstorm Forecasts Storm Tracks

Real-timeReal-timeReal-time

Global NWP Products GSM (JMA), GFS (NCEP), NOGAPS, GEM (CMC), GME (DWD), UM(KMA)

Real-time

Global EPS Products NAEFS Real-time

Regional NWP Products WRF or COSMO Not yet

Regional EPS Products LEPS, SREPS Real-time

Tropical Cyclone Products Guidance Track and Intensity forecast Trike Probabilistic

Under-developing

RSMC Guidance Archive Not yet

Current products provided via the RFSC

Challenges: Infrastructure & Technology

• Telecommunication infrastructures are still under-developed in the region

• Thin observation networks; many have not been modernized & not provided real-time data

• Limited data processing capacity and tools

• Limited ability and capacity for data and information assimilation

• Information dissemination needs improving

Challenges: Human Resources

• Number of trained staff is limited• Further staff training needed in:

– Interpreting various NWP/EPS and guidance products

– Operational procedures/guidelines – Feedback mechanism– Model verification– Use of related applications

• Public training are also needed

Challenges: Financial Resources

• RSFC needs huge investment but countries in the region are facing economic difficulty

• Need supports from WMO, WB, developed partners; public and private investments

Opportunities

• Growing awareness on importance of weather forecast with sustainable development at all levels in countries and the region

• New technology makes complex weather forecast problems possible

• High demand of products due to economic growth and climate change

• Technical & financial supports from WMO, Global & Regional Centers, Donors

Opportunities: Strong supports from the government of Viet Nam

• Agreed by the Prime Minister of Viet Nam

• Office space for the RFSC

• Enthusiastic & motivated staff

• Results from the modernizationof the hydro-met programme, with hundred-millions-dollar investments

• Further contributions if required

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION