World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP)

REGIONAL SUBPROJECT RA V

Steve Ready

South Pacific ‘Window’

Solomon Islands

SamoaVanuatu

Fiji

150OE to 150OW, 2ON to 25(30)OS

Tonga

Niue Cook Islands

Tuvalu

Kiribati

South Pacific window

South Pacific Guidance chart produced by RSMC Wellington

Before YasiWas named!

UKMO page on MetConnect Pacific

UKMO

TC data Ensemble tracks Strike probabilities Deterministic v Ensemble mean

TC (and non-TC)Tracks- static image

TC Animated – strike probabilities: TC passing within 300km

TC Genesis probabilities – 10x10° (bar graphs)

TC probabilities – 10x10° (bar graphs)

Southerly swellPeak around 3m15s

Christmas Island(Just north of Equatornear 158⁰West)

ECMWF – tropical cyclone data

Lagrangian Meteogram - EPS 7°x 7° box centred on TC Strike probability map - 120km radius Cyclone observed track Deterministic forecast verification

Strike probability for Wilma

ECMWF on TC Wilma

NCEP

RSMC Darwin

ACCESS-TC and vortexTracking available by 2011/2012 cyclone season

South Pacific Guidance chart during TC Wilma Jan 2011

Links between SWFDDP and GIFS-TIGGE

Links between SWFDDP and GIFS-TIGGE

Issues for SWFDDP

• Poor internet connectivity - low internet bandwidth, downloading quota

• Lack of qualified WMO meteorologists in South Pacific

• Dependency - 5 of 9 participating countries in SWFDDP rely on RSMC for some or all their forecasting & warning requirements

Snowman around Wellington on 14-16 August 2011