Page | 1

- +

Monthly Movements in the New Claimant Counts (CC)

Monitoring the local labour market

and business news

The Hampshire

Labour Market Bulletin

May 2017

CC Number

Down by 10 to 11,510

CC Rate

Unchanged at 1.0%

CC 16-24 Number

Down by 55 to 2,310

CC 16-24 Rate

Unchanged at 1.1%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

May-90

May-91

May-92

May-93

May-94

May-95

May-96

May-97

May-98

May-99

May-00

May-01

May-02

May-03

May-04

May-05

May-06

May-07

May-08

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

Hampshire Economic Area Unemployed Benefit Claimant Count Number and Working Age Rates (% 16-64yrs): 1990-2017

Rate

Number

rece

ssio

n

rece

ssio

n

Number Working Age Working Age %

Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) May 2017 Headlines

Nationally, and using the Government’s preferred ILO estimates, the employment rate is 74.8% for the three months to April 2017, the joint highest on record. The unemployment rate is 4.6%. Locally, the nearest equivalent HEA employment rate is 77.8% for the 12 months to December 2016, while the unemployment rate is 4.3%. The more current, but narrower monthly claimant count in the HEA is down by 10 claimants to stand at 11,510 for May 2017, but up on the year by 680. The rate is unchanged at 1.0%.

- + - + - +

Page | 2

National (ILO) Dashboard (3 mths to April 2017 and change on previous quarter)

Employment Number

31.95 million (+109,000)

Unemployment Number

1.53 million (-50,000)

Economic Inactivity Number

8.85 million (-30,000)

16-24 Unemployment Number

564,000 (10,000)

Employment Rate

74.8% (+0.2 ppts)

Unemployment Rate

4.6% (-0.2ppts)

Economic Inactivity Rate

21.5% (-0.1ppts)

16-24 Unemployment Rate

12.5% (no change)

- +

- + - +

- +

- + - +

- +

- +

Page | 3

78.2 77.7 77.5 77.8

74.2 74.4 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.4 74.5 74.6 74.6 74.6 74.8 74.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

% e

mpl

oyed

(16+

)

Nearest Equivalent HEA Annual Rate UK ILO Quarter Rate (LFS)Date refers to LFS period

UK ILO Rates and Nearest Equivalent for the HEA

4.44.5

4.24.3

5.04.9 4.9 4.9 4.9

4.8 4.8 4.8 4.84.7 4.7

4.6 4.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

% u

nem

ploy

ed (1

6+)

Nearest Equivalent HEA Annual Rate UK ILO Quarter Rate (LFS)Date refers to LFS period

UK and HEA Nearest Equivalent Unemployment Rate Comparison

The Government’s preferred ILO definition from the ONS Labour Force Survey is not published below the regional level. For a local comparison that provides the nearest equivalent statistic there is the Annual Population Survey. This is published quarterly covering a 12 month period. The dates in the charts refer to the LFS period not the APS.

UK and HEA Nearest Equivalent Employment Rate Comparison

Page | 4

Employment

Number Employment numbers were up on the quarter by 109,000 to reach 31.95 million. Annually,

employment is up by 372,000.

Rate The UK employment rate is 74.8% for the three months to April 2017, the joint highest on record. This

is up by 0.2 of a percentage point on the quarter, while the annual rate is up by 0.6 of a percentage point. For a local comparison, the nearest equivalent employment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 77.8% for the 12 months to December 2016, and 80.0% for the Hampshire County Council area.

Status Full-time employment increased on the quarter by 162,000 to 23.50 million, while part-time

employment is down by 53,000 on the quarter to 8.45 million. The number of employees is up by 127,000 on the quarter to 26.95 million, while self-employment increased by 3,000 to 4.80 million. The number of unpaid family workers is down by 15,000 to 112,000, while the number on government supported training employment programmes is down by 5,000 to 86,000.

Pay and Inflation (Average Weekly Earnings and Consumer Price Index) • Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that

is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.4% including bonuses, and fell by 0.6% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier. In nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation, pay increased by 2.1% including bonuses, and by 1.7% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier. Pay is not keeping pace with inflation.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.9% in May 2017, up from 2.7% in April. This is the highest the rate has been in four years and above the Bank of England's 2% target. The fall in the value of the pound since last year's Brexit referendum has increased the cost of imports, with rising food prices, cost of foreign package holidays and imported computer games all contributing.

ILO unemployment (Government's preferred measure from the LFS Survey) Number National ILO unemployment numbers are down by 50,000 on the quarter to 1.53 million for the three

months to April 2017. On the year the number is down by 145,000.

Rate The national unemployment rate is 4.6%, and down by 0.2 of a percentage point on the quarter. The

rate is down by 0.5 of a percentage point on the year. Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO unemployment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area for the 12 months to December 2016 is 4.3% compared to 3.5% in the Hampshire County Council area.

Youth Unemployment Number and Rate Nationally, the number of 16 to 24 year olds out of work is up by 10,000 on the quarter to 564,000.

The rate for 16-24yrs is 12.5%. Locally, the nearest equivalent 16-24yrs unemployment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 13.0% for the 12 months to December 2016, and 11.8% for the Hampshire County area.

Economic Inactivity The UK working age economic inactivity rate stands at 21.5%, and down by 0.1 of a percentage point

on the quarter. The number of economically inactive people is down by 30,000 on the quarter to 8.83 million, and is down by 74,000 on the year. Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO Economic Inactivity rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 18.1% for the 12 months to December 2016, and 17.1% for the Hampshire County Council area.

National Commentary

Page | 5

Nearest Equivalent Local ILO Labour Market Statistics (next update July 2017)

Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO employment rate in the Hampshire Economic Area is 77.8% for the 12 months to December 2016, and 80.0% in the Hampshire County area.

The HEA ILO unemployment rate is 4.3% compared to 3.5% in the Hampshire County Council area. The nearest equivalent unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds in the Hampshire Economic Area is 13.0% for the 12 months to December 2016, and 11.8% for the Hampshire County Council area.

The nearest equivalent ILO Economic Inactivity rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 18.1% for the

12 months to December 2016, and 17.1% for the Hampshire County Council area.

Claimant Count Number and Rates (monthly movements in the Claimant Count should be interpreted with caution)

Under the unemployed Claimant Count measure (JSA + UC),the number of claimants for May 2017 is 11,510. This represents a decrease of 10 claimants on April 2017, but 680 more claimants compared to May 2016.

The unemployed claimant count rate is unchanged at 1.0%, and unchanged on the year. The South East rate and UK rates are both unchanged on the month at 1.2% and 2.0% respectively. As such, the Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) rate is one percentage point lower than the UK rate.

Of the 14 HEA and Isle of Wight local authority districts five saw a monthly increase in unemployment benefit claimants, ranging from 10 more claimants in Basingstoke and Deane and Fareham to 80 extra claimants in Southampton. The New Forest saw no change, while eight authorities saw a decrease ranging from five fewer claimants in Winchester to 95 fewer claimants for the Isle of Wight.

New Claimant Count Number by Gender

Male unemployed benefit claimant numbers for May2017 are down by 15 on April 2017 to 7,225. Female numbers are up by five to 4,285 claimants. Annual unemployment benefit claimant numbers for males are up on the year (May 2016) by 280, while female numbers are up by 405.

New Claimant Count Youth Unemployment

The level of 16-24 year olds on unemployment benefit decreased on the month by 55 to 2,310. The rate is unchanged on the month to 1.1%.

DWP Worklessness November 2016 (next update is August 2017 for Feb 2017 statistics)

The Hampshire Economic Area worklessness number stood at 69,070 for November 2016, a decrease of 2,340 on November 2015. The worklessness rate is 6.1%, and down by 0.2 of a percentage point on the year. This compares to the national rate of 8.4%. Please note that the worklessness figure does not include Universal Credit or Personal Independence Payments (PIPS) and will under count overall worklessness.

Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) Year 12 and 13 cohort (16-17yr olds)

The Actual NEET figure for Hampshire for April 2017 is 1.8%. Please note this is a change to the previous adjusted NEET figures for years 12-14 (see Glossary).

Local Commentary

Page | 6

Job Creation and Planned Developments Ascensos is planning to create 600 jobs at a new customer service call centre due to open in Cowes

on the Isle of Wight in September. [23-May-2017]

Aldi is seeking suitable sites across south Hampshire to expand its chain of supermarkets, with the creation of hundreds of jobs. [22-May-2017]

Grant Thornton is planning to open a collaborative office for its accounting business and 65 staff at

the University of Southampton Science Park in Chilworth next month. [17-May-2017]

Isle of Wight Council is in talks with an unnamed customer service provider about plans to open a new call centre on the Isle of Wight by September, with the creation of up to 600 jobs. [15-May-2017]

Relocations, Mergers and Acquisitions Wozair has acquired a majority stake in Veotec, the Hampshire-based filtration products

manufacturer. [08-Jun-2017] Fluor Corporation has let the whole of the 31,000 sq ft Brennan House office building at Park West

One in Farnborough. [31-May-2017] FrontRow Energy Technology has acquired a 50% stake in ClearWELL Oilfield Solutions from MSL

Oilfield Services, with the relocation of its Southampton-based oil and gas technology business to Aberdeen. [24-May-2017]

Procore, the Hampshire-based workplace consultancy with 40 staff, has been acquired by Drees &

Sommer of Germany. [22-May-2017] Galliford Try has acquired Drew Smith, the Southampton-based building firm with 80 staff, for

undisclosed terms. [17-May-2017]

Job Losses ,Closures and Administration

Non reported in this period

Business Activity reported between 11 May 2017 and 8 June 2017

Local Business News

Page | 7

The International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) definitions are the Government’s preferred measure of labour market statistics, and taken as an estimate from the Labour Force Survey. A person is deemed to be unemployed if they are aged 16 and over who are without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks; or are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks. The Annual Population Survey modelled data for unemployment are used for the nearest equivalent ILO estimates for Local Authorities, although the two are not directly comparable. The ILO differs to the JSA claimant data, which is an actual count of those aged 16+ who are eligible and signed on as actively seeking work.

ILO Unemployment as percentage of economically-active population (seasonally adjusted) Feb 2017 – April 2017

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

South East region 90,000 3.6 75,000 3.4 165,000 3.5 +3,000 -16,000

United Kingdom 840,000 4.7 690,000 4.4 1,530,000 4.6 -50,000 -145,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Estimates are taken from a three quarter rolling average with seasonal adjustments. Quarter difference compared to previous non-overlapping three month quarter average. Change on year refers to the same quarter period from the previous year.

Nearest Equivalent ILO Labour Market Indicators (next update July 2017)

12 months to Dec 2016

Labour Supply Labour Demand Employment Modelled Unemployment Economic Inactivity Jobs 2015 Total 000’s % Total

000’s %a %b Total 000’s % Total

000’s Density

Hampshire (CC) 689 80.0 27 3.5 2.9 141 17.1 727 0.88

Basingstoke & Deane 95 83.0 3 3.2 1.7 17 15.3 93 0.84

East Hampshire 58 77.1 2 3.4 2.4 14 20.5 59 0.84

Eastleigh 71 82.5 2 3.2 3.3 11 14.2 73 0.91

Fareham 58 82.5 2 3.3 3.5 10 14.0 58 0.83

Gosport 41 75.3 2 4.3 6.9 10 17.8 28 0.53

Hart 49 83.3 1 2.5 1.9 8 14.8 53 0.92

Havant 56 74.1 3 4.4 5.2 15 20.7 50 0.69

New Forest 85 80.8 3 3.3 1.6 18 17.6 83 0.83

Rushmoor 53 81.8 2 3.2 3.2 10 15.0 57 0.91

Test Valley 61 80.5 2 2.7 2.0 13 17.5 77 1.06

Winchester 62 76.5 2 3.2 2.8 16 20.7 96 1.29

Portsmouth 104 72.5 6 5.7 5.0 31 22.5 121 0.85

Southampton 124 71.4 8 5.8 4.1 42 24.5 134 0.78

Hampshire (HEA) 917 77.8 41 4.3 4.1 214 18.1 982 0.86

Isle of Wight 60 74.5 3 5.3 3.8 17 21.7 61 0.77

South East region* 4,492 77.6 188 4.0 3.4 1053 19.0 4,804 0.86

United Kingdom* 31,484 73.9 1,606 4.9 3.8 9,132 22.3 34,059 0.83 Source: ONS Modelled Unemployment/Annual Population Survey. Totals represent '000s. Data are not seasonally adjusted.‘a’ Unemployment rate using 16+ population. ‘b’ Unemployed rate derived from Employed and Economically Inactive rates *Data from APS. **HEA unemployed rates are derived by aggregating from the ONS model based unemployment data and the latest APS 16+ unemployment denominator. The Modelled count and rate will be different (and lower) to the APS count and rate.

National and Regional ILO Labour Market with Local ILO Nearest Equivalents

Page | 8

The Office for National Statistics produces adjustments to take account of seasonal variations in demand for labour, but only at the national and regional level. This measure is commonly quoted by the national media. The second set are seasonally unadjusted claimant count published at the local level. This local measure is most commonly used by local authorities as the more timely, but narrower measure of unemployment. Seasonally adjusted National and Regional Claimant Counts 18+ Number* and % working age** (experimental – no longer reported by ONS in the Statistical Bulletins, read with caution) May 2017 Male Female Total Change On The

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

South East region 39,563 1.4 24,724 0.9 64,287 1.2 7,260 26,638

United Kingdom 501,213 2.4 301,411 1.5 802,624 1.9 1,321 4,175

Source: ONS. *ONS First Release JSA seasonally adjusted + Universal Credit seasonally adjusted. **ONS First Release use Jobseeker's Allowance + out-of-work Universal Credit + Workforce jobs as the denominator.

The Universal Credit (UC), a single payment for people who are looking for work or are on a low income, was first piloted in 2013, and then rolled out in phases nationally to Jobcentre Plus offices (JCPs). Local JCPs in Hampshire started to go ‘live’ in April 2015 (Southampton), while all of Hampshire’s JCPs are scheduled to go ‘live’ by April 2016. In light of the number of JCPs recording ‘live’ Universal Credit data, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the new experimental Claimant Counts on 11 November 2015. This data records eligible persons claiming Jobseeker's Allowance plus new or transferred claimants who are out of work and claiming Universal Credit. The ONS called the new dataset the Claimant Count. The previous claimant counts based only on JSA are still collected and published, but referred to as the Jobseekers Allowance. Users need to be aware of these differences. The new Claimant Count dataset does not currently publish claimants by duration or sought occupation. The two tables in the Labour Market Bulletin that captures this data will continue to be published, but using the JSA only data i.e. it will not include any new Universal Credit (UC) claimants. ONS decided that, with effect from the Labour Market Statistics releases to be published on 15 March 2017, to remove the Claimant Count series from the UK and Regional Statistical Bulletins, as it may now be providing a misleading representation of the UK labour market. Claimant Count data will continue to be available as datasets on the ONS website and via NOMIS. Universal Credit is designed so that a broader span of claimants is required to look for work than under Jobseeker's Allowance. This means that once Universal Credit is fully rolled out, the Claimant Count is likely to be higher than it would otherwise be under Jobseeker's Allowance. One reason the Universal Credit series was experimental is that there was an insufficiently long time series accurately to ascertain its seasonality. It was assumed it would have a similar seasonal pattern to Jobseeker’s Allowance. However, as roll-out has progressed it has become clear that this is not the case, with the consequence that the seasonally-adjusted claimant count series has become more volatile. Users are encouraged to interpret monthly movements in the Claimant Count with caution.

Seasonally and Non-Seasonally adjusted Claimant Count Trends

New (experimental) Claimant Count and Jobseekers Allowance Only Local Data

Page | 9

Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Counts

May 2017 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 4,060 1.0 2,480 0.6 6,540 0.8 -70 310 Basingstoke & Deane 580 1.1 385 0.7 965 0.9 10 80 East Hampshire 255 0.7 160 0.5 420 0.6 -20 -10 Eastleigh 340 0.9 205 0.5 550 0.7 20 -50 Fareham 265 0.8 185 0.5 450 0.7 10 20 Gosport 395 1.5 240 1.0 635 1.2 -35 90 Hart 175 0.6 95 0.3 275 0.5 -5 20 Havant 690 1.9 425 1.2 1,115 1.5 -40 100 New Forest 425 0.9 255 0.5 680 0.7 0 -5 Rushmoor 375 1.2 210 0.7 585 0.9 -15 40 Test Valley 300 0.8 175 0.4 475 0.6 20 40 Winchester 255 0.7 140 0.4 395 0.5 -5 -5 Portsmouth 1,505 2.0 885 1.3 2,390 1.7 -25 425 Southampton 1,655 1.8 925 1.0 2,580 1.5 80 -55 Hampshire (HEA) 7,225 1.3 4,285 0.8 11,510 1.0 -10 680 Isle of Wight 955 2.4 495 1.3 1,455 1.8 -95 50 Enterprise M3 LEP 3,955 0.9 2,375 0.5 6,330 0.7 -80 615 Solent LEP 6,200 1.4 3,600 0.9 9,800 1.3 -90 570 South East region 40,240 1.5 24,745 0.9 64,985 1.2 -705 4,550 Great Britain 493,800 2.5 292,820 1.5 786,620 2.0 -9,415 39,670 United Kingdom 514,425 2.5 302,665 1.5 817,085 2.0 -10,360 33,840 Source: ONS.

Claimant Counts Relative to the UK and South East region (May 2017)

Claimant Counts and Change on Month and Year

Page | 10

Total Claimant Count Number change on previous month

Source: ONS

Total Claimant Count Number Annual Change

Source: ONS The ONS monthly claimant count numbers at this geographic level are seasonally unadjusted i.e. it does not factor in naturally occurring cycles in seasonal demand for labour. To compare on a like-for-like basis the same period in the previous year should be looked at to gauge if unemployment is better or worse. At the national and regional level ONS produce seasonally adjusted claimant count that take account of seasonal variations, although these are not comparable to the local data (see page 8).

Solent (LEP), -90Enterprise M3 (LEP), -80

Isle of Wight, -95Hampshire (HEA), -10

Hampshire (HCC), -70Southampton, 80

Portsmouth, -25Winchester, -5

Test Valley, 20Rushmoor, -15

New Forest, 0Havant, -40

Hart, -5

Gosport, -35Fareham, 10

Eastleigh, 20East Hampshire, -20

Basingstoke & Deane, 10

-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300

May 2017 unemployment claimant count (JSA+UC) change on April 2017

Solent (LEP), 570Enterprise M3 (LEP), 615

Isle of Wight, 50Hampshire (HEA), 680

Hampshire (HCC), 310Southampton, -55

Portsmouth, 425Winchester, -5

Test Valley, 40Rushmoor, 40

New Forest, -5Havant, 100

Hart, 20Gosport, 90

Fareham, 20Eastleigh, -50

East Hampshire, -10Basingstoke & Deane, 80

-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000

May 2017 unemployment benefit claimant count (JSA+UC) change on May 2016

Page | 11

UK ILO Unemployment - seasonally adjusted Feb 2017 to Apr 2017

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

16-24 years 325,000 13.9 239,000 11.0 564,000 12.5 +10,000 -57,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Rates are based on all persons of the relevant age group who are economically active. The 16-17 age group has a much higher relative unemployment rate as the majority of persons in this age group would be economically inactive and in full-time education.

Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (16-24yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update Jul 2017). 12 months to Dec 2016

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 10,600 11.8 1,000 2.4

Portsmouth 3,800 20.5 1,900 8.5 Southampton 3,500 11.8 -700 -3.5

Hampshire (HEA) 17,900 13.0 2,200 2.2

Isle of Wight 1,300 13.7 200 2.6

Enterprise M3 LEP 11,400 11.7 2,800 2.7 Solent LEP 16,000 15.4 3,800 3.6 South East region 77,800 12.4 -700 -0.2 Great Britain 571,100 13.2 -60,800 -1.0 United Kingdom 592,100 13.3 -61,100 -1.0 Source: Annual Population Survey PPTS (Percentage points)

Seasonally unadjusted Claimants Counts (16-24yrs) – The more up to date, but much narrower definition of youth unemployment.

May 2017 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 860 1.3 500 0.8 1,355 1.0 -25 140

Basingstoke & Deane 95 1.1 75 1.0 170 1.1 5 30 East Hampshire 50 0.8 30 0.6 80 0.7 -5 5 Eastleigh 85 1.3 35 0.6 120 1.0 0 -15 Fareham 50 0.8 35 0.7 85 0.8 5 -5 Gosport 100 2.1 65 1.6 165 1.8 -10 35 Hart 20 0.5 10 0.3 30 0.4 -10 -5 Havant 160 2.4 95 1.5 250 2.0 -25 10 New Forest 110 1.4 60 0.8 165 1.1 0 30 Rushmoor 75 1.4 30 0.6 105 1.0 -10 -5 Test Valley 65 1.2 40 0.7 105 1.0 10 15 Winchester 50 0.7 30 0.4 80 0.5 5 40 Portsmouth 255 1.3 170 1.0 425 1.2 -10 100 Southampton 335 1.3 195 0.9 530 1.1 -20 -40

Hampshire (HEA) 1,450 1.3 860 0.8 2,310 1.1 -55 200

Isle of Wight 230 3.3 115 1.9 345 2.6 -35 10 Enterprise M3 LEP 675 0.9 395 0.5 1,070 0.7 -35 180 Solent LEP 1,310 1.6 770 1.0 2,075 1.3 -95 125 South East region 7,875 1.6 4,640 1.0 12,515 1.3 -485 465 Great Britain 103,315 2.8 58,265 1.7 161,585 2.3 -5,275 1,355 United Kingdom 107,995 2.9 60,365 1.7 168,360 2.3 -5,670 -655 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Young People (16-24) ILO unemployment and Claimant Counts

Page | 12

UK ILO Unemployment - seasonally adjusted Feb 2017 to Apr 2017

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

18-24 years 258,000 12.4 170,000 8.9 429,000 10.7 -8,000 -56,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Rates are based on all persons of the relevant age group who are economically active. The 16-17 age group has a much higher relative unemployment rate as the majority of persons in this age group would be economically inactive and in full-time education.

There is no 18-24 APS Unemployment by age category to give a nearest equivalent.

Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Counts (18-24yrs) - The more up to date, but much narrower definition of unemployment Few 16 or 17 year olds are eligible to claim JSA/UC, so the 18-24 year measure is often used as an alternative.

May 2017 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 855 1.7 490 1.0 1,345 1.3 -25 135

Basingstoke & Deane 95 1.5 70 1.2 170 1.4 5 35 East Hampshire 50 1.1 30 0.8 80 1.0 -5 5 Eastleigh 85 1.8 30 0.7 115 1.2 -5 -20 Fareham 50 1.1 35 0.9 85 1.0 10 -5 Gosport 95 2.5 65 2.0 160 2.3 -10 30 Hart 20 0.6 10 0.4 30 0.5 -10 -5 Havant 155 3.1 95 2.0 250 2.6 -25 10 New Forest 110 1.8 60 1.1 165 1.4 0 30 Rushmoor 75 1.8 30 0.8 105 1.3 -5 -5 Test Valley 65 1.5 40 1.0 105 1.3 10 20 Winchester 50 0.9 30 0.5 75 0.6 0 35 Portsmouth 250 1.4 165 1.1 415 1.3 -20 95 Southampton 335 1.5 190 0.9 525 1.2 -20 -45

Hampshire (HEA) 1,440 1.6 845 1.0 2,285 1.3 -65 185

Isle of Wight 230 4.4 110 2.4 340 3.5 -40 5 Enterprise M3 LEP 675 1.1 395 0.7 1,070 0.9 -25 185 Solent LEP 1,295 1.9 750 1.2 2,050 1.6 -105 110 South East region 7,825 2.0 4,600 1.2 12,425 1.6 -500 435 Great Britain 102,810 3.5 57,720 2.1 160,530 2.8 -5,275 1,070 United Kingdom 107,480 3.6 59,810 2.1 167,290 2.8 -5,675 -940 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5. The 18-24 year old claimant count is sometimes preferred over the 16-24 age group as few 16 and 17 year olds are eligible to claim JSA or Universal Credit, with the majority of 16-24yr old claimants falling within the 18-24 broad age group.

Young People (18-24) ILO unemployment and Claimant Counts

Page | 13

Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (25-49yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update Jul 2017) 12 months to Dec 2016

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 10,600 2.9 -900 -0.1

Portsmouth 1,900 3.0 -1,100 -1.8 Southampton 2,900 3.8 -300 -0.1

Hampshire (HEA) 15,500 3.0 -2,200 -0.4

Isle of Wight 1,300 4.1 -200 -0.9

Enterprise M3 LEP 9,100 2.1 -4,100 -1.0 Solent LEP 11,900 3.5 -200 0.0 South East region 75,300 2.9 -3,100 -0.2 Great Britain 678,900 3.7 -58,100 -0.4 United Kingdom 703,200 3.8 -55,200 -0.3 Source: Annual Population Survey PPTS (Percentage points) Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Count (25-49yrs) - The more up to date, but narrower definition of unemployment

May 2017 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 1,980 1.0 1,240 0.6 3,220 0.8 -40 80

Basingstoke & Deane 320 1.1 205 0.7 525 0.9 10 30 East Hampshire 125 0.8 85 0.5 210 0.6 -5 -5 Eastleigh 165 0.8 115 0.5 280 0.7 15 -20 Fareham 125 0.7 90 0.5 215 0.6 5 0 Gosport 195 1.4 100 0.7 295 1.1 -25 20 Hart 90 0.6 55 0.4 145 0.5 -5 10 Havant 330 2.0 195 1.1 525 1.5 -20 50 New Forest 185 0.8 130 0.5 315 0.7 -15 -20 Rushmoor 185 1.0 115 0.6 300 0.8 -5 20 Test Valley 130 0.7 85 0.4 215 0.6 10 10 Winchester 130 0.8 65 0.4 195 0.6 -5 -25 Portsmouth 820 2.2 495 1.4 1,315 1.8 0 195 Southampton 880 1.9 510 1.2 1,390 1.6 60 -50

Hampshire (HEA) 3,680 1.3 2,240 0.8 5,920 1.0 15 220

Isle of Wight 455 2.5 250 1.3 705 1.9 -40 30 Enterprise M3 LEP 1,970 0.8 1,280 0.5 3,250 0.7 -40 205 Solent LEP 3,150 1.6 1,865 1.0 5,015 1.3 -25 220 South East region 20,730 1.4 13,230 0.9 33,955 1.2 -220 1,855 Great Britain 266,210 2.5 159,590 1.5 425,800 2.0 -3,160 15,830 United Kingdom 276,980 2.6 164,635 1.5 441,620 2.0 -3,570 12,650 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Younger Working Age (25-49yrs) ILO unemployment and Claimant Count

Page | 14

Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (50-64yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update Jul 2017) 12 months to Dec2016

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 2,900 1.3 -2,500 -1.3

Portsmouth 1,300 5.2 300 1.2 Southampton 600 2.5 -100 0.1

Hampshire (HEA) 4,800 1.8 -2,300 -0.9

Isle of Wight ~ 1.7 ~ -0.4

Enterprise M3 LEP 4,500 1.9 -1,000 -0.6 Solent LEP 3,700 2.2 -2,000 -1.3 South East region 31,600 2.4 -3,600 -0.4 Great Britain 283,500 3.3 -5,700 -0.2 United Kingdom 292,900 3.3 -6,100 -0.2 Source: Annual Population Survey. ~ missing, less than 500. PPTS (Percentage points) Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Count (50-64yrs) - The more up to date, but narrower definition of unemployment

May 2017 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 1,220 0.9 740 0.5 1,960 0.7 -10 90

Basingstoke & Deane 160 1.0 105 0.6 270 0.8 -10 15 East Hampshire 80 0.6 50 0.4 130 0.5 -15 -10 Eastleigh 90 0.7 55 0.4 150 0.6 10 -15 Fareham 90 0.8 60 0.5 155 0.7 5 30 Gosport 105 1.3 75 0.9 180 1.1 5 40 Hart 65 0.7 35 0.4 95 0.5 5 5 Havant 205 1.7 140 1.1 340 1.4 0 40 New Forest 130 0.7 65 0.3 195 0.5 5 -20 Rushmoor 115 1.4 65 0.8 180 1.1 0 25 Test Valley 105 0.9 45 0.4 150 0.6 -5 5 Winchester 75 0.7 45 0.4 120 0.5 0 -20 Portsmouth 430 2.6 220 1.3 650 2.0 -15 130 Southampton 440 2.4 220 1.2 660 1.8 45 35

Hampshire (HEA) 2,090 1.2 1,185 0.7 3,275 1.0 25 260

Isle of Wight 270 1.9 135 0.9 405 1.4 -20 10 Enterprise M3 LEP 1,305 0.9 695 0.5 2,000 0.7 -5 225 Solent LEP 1,735 1.2 970 0.8 2,705 1.0 25 225 South East region 11,605 1.4 6,860 0.8 18,460 1.1 5 2,225 Great Britain 123,905 2.2 74,775 1.3 198,680 1.7 -955 22,640 United Kingdom 128,870 2.2 77,405 1.3 206,275 1.7 -1,090 21,920 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Older Working Age (50-64yrs) ILO unemployment and Claimant Count

Page | 15

Main Worklessness Measures (Hierarchical Counts*). Next update August 2017 (Feb 2017 data)

Nov 2016 Main Out of Work

Jobseekers Allowance ESA/IB Lone Parent

Other Income based

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Hampshire CC 43,230 5.2 4,160 0.5 32,870 4.0 5,390 0.7 810 0.1 B’stoke & Deane 5,570 5.0 630 0.6 4,120 3.7 730 0.7 90 0.1 East Hampshire 3,050 4.3 280 0.4 2,380 3.4 330 0.5 60 0.1 Eastleigh 3,720 4.6 310 0.4 2,900 3.6 450 0.6 70 0.1 Fareham 2,980 4.3 260 0.4 2,350 3.4 310 0.4 60 0.1 Gosport 4,000 7.6 370 0.7 3,000 5.7 560 1.1 80 0.1 Hart 1,730 3.0 210 0.4 1,270 2.2 230 0.4 20 0.0 Havant 6,300 8.6 760 1.0 4,480 6.1 940 1.3 120 0.2 New Forest 5,660 5.6 420 0.4 4,520 4.5 610 0.6 110 0.1 Rushmoor 3,710 5.9 390 0.6 2,740 4.3 490 0.8 90 0.1 Test Valley 3,500 4.8 280 0.4 2,710 3.7 450 0.6 60 0.1 Winchester 3,010 4.1 250 0.3 2,400 3.3 300 0.4 50 0.1 Portsmouth 11,770 8.2 1,530 1.1 8,200 5.7 1,760 1.2 270 0.2 Southampton 14,080 8.2 1,410 0.8 10,360 6.0 2,020 1.2 280 0.2 Hampshire (HEA) 69,070 6.1 7,110 0.6 51,440 4.5 9,180 0.8 1,350 0.1 Isle of Wight 8,120 10.1 1,100 1.4 5,960 7.4 870 1.1 190 0.2 Enterprise M3 LEP 46,830 5.1 4,640 0.5 35,470 3.9 5,890 0.6 830 0.1 Solent LEP 50,970 6.7 5,740 0.8 37,260 4.9 6,910 0.9 1,070 0.1 South East reg. 340,140 6.1 41,650 0.7 246,690 4.4 44,880 0.8 6,920 0.1 Great Britain 3,380,420 8.4 460,480 1.1 2,446,000 6.1 401,630 1.0 72,310 0.2 Source: Department for Work and Pensions. Excludes unemployed Universal Credit claimants and claimants on PIP. *To avoid double counting the out-of-work benefit claimants are allocated to one benefit using a hierarchical system, so that a person claiming Employment Support Allowance (ESA) and Lone Parent benefits would be counted under ESA and so forth.

Working Age Out-of-Work Benefit Claimant Rates Relative to the GB and South East region

Quarter Worklessness Statistics

Page | 16

Ward (2015) Claimant Count Hotspots May 2017

Top and Bottom 25 Wards* by New Claimant Count Number and Rate (May 2017)

25 Wards with highest Claimant Count 25 Wards with lowest Claimant Count

Ward 2015 District No. Rate Ward 2015 District No. Rate Ryde North East Isle of Wight 100 4.2 Kingsclere B & D 10 0.3 Charles Dickens Portsmouth 480 3.6 Littleton and Harestock Winchester 5 0.3 Newport Central Isle of Wight 75 3.1 Upper Meon Valley Winchester 5 0.3 Battins Havant 135 3.0 Whiteley Winchester 5 0.3 Ryde North West Isle of Wight 60 3.0 Bramshaw, Copythorne N. & Minstead New Forest 5 0.3 Warren Park Havant 130 2.8 Downlands and Forest New Forest 5 0.3 Barncroft Havant 120 2.8 Binsted and Bentley E. Hampshire 5 0.3 Ryde South Isle of Wight 80 2.8 Froxfield and Steep E. Hampshire 5 0.3 Newport East Isle of Wight 60 2.8 Petersfield Rother E. Hampshire 5 0.3 Bitterne Southampton 240 2.7 Odiham Hart 15 0.2 Bondfields Havant 115 2.6 St Paul Winchester 10 0.2 Ventnor East Isle of Wight 45 2.5 Hill Head Fareham 10 0.2 Town Gosport 85 2.4 Compton and Otterbourne Winchester 5 0.2 Whippingham and Osborne Isle of Wight 55 2.4 Olivers Battery and Badger Farm Winchester 5 0.2 Nelson Portsmouth 235 2.3 Owslebury and Curdridge Winchester 5 0.2 Woolston Southampton 220 2.3 Ampfield and Braishfield Test Valley 5 0.2 Ryde East Isle of Wight 50 2.3 Kings Somborne and Michelmersh Test Valley 5 0.2 Shanklin South Isle of Wight 45 2.3 Forest North West New Forest 5 0.2 Totland Isle of Wight 30 2.3 Alton Amery E. Hampshire 5 0.2 Sandown South Isle of Wight 55 2.2 Grayshott E. Hampshire 5 0.2 Redbridge Southampton 200 2.1 Pamber and Silchester B & D 5 0.2 Shanklin Central Isle of Wight 50 2.1 Blackwater Test Valley 5 0.1 Freshwater North Isle of Wight 25 2.1 Cheriton and Bishops Sutton Winchester 0 0.0 Fratton Portsmouth 220 2.0 Sparsholt Winchester 0 0.0 Newport South Isle of Wight 45 2.0 Sherborne St John B & D 0 0.0 Source: NOMIS. *Ranked highest to lowest by Rate and then by Number. B&D Basingstoke & Deane. Numbers below 3 are shown as 0 in the raw data and are equal to either 0, 1 or 2 claimants. All data are rounded to the nearest 5 and may not precisely add to the sum of the number of people claiming Claimant Counts..

Small Area Claimant Count Hotspots

Page | 17

There are several methods used to record young people who are considered to be not in education, employment or training. The three primary sources come from the annual Participation in Education, Training and Employment First Release, the Quarterly NEETS derived from the Labour Force Survey, and from local authority Client Caseload Information Systems (CCIS) as an annual adjusted average published by the Department for Education. Local Authority CCIS data is captured monthly. How to interpret the local monthly adjusted NEET data can be found on Page 20. The three sources are not comparable. The 2014 Annual Department for Education’s Statistical First Release (SFR): Participation in Education, Training and Employment by 16-18 Year Olds in England (Next update June 2017)

The primary source of national data on 16-18 year old NEETs. The latest annual provisional rate for 16-18 year olds, at end 2015, was 6.5%, a fall of 1.1 percentage points from 7.6% at end of 2014.

Quarterly Labour Force Survey (DfE LFS Series Quarter 3, 2016)

16-18 NEET % Quarter 3: Jul-Sep 2016 Change on year (Jul-Sep 2015)

Percentage points England 8.7% -1.5 (10.2%) Source: Labour Force Survey LFS allows in-year estimates to be made of NEET. The quarterly LFS estimates cannot be directly compared with the headline Participation SFR series based on more detailed but less timely data.

Local NEET

DfE Annual Local Authority 16- 18-year olds Not in Education, Employment or Training (2015) 16-18 NEET Estimated NEET Estimated NEET %

Hampshire CC 1,230 3.0% Portsmouth CC 330 5.6% Southampton CC 320 4.7% Isle of Wight 120 2.8% South East region 10.870 3.9% Source: Department for Education. Published March 2015. The ‘local authority NEET figures’ provides an annual estimate, based on average figures for November 2013 to January 2014 each year.

Actual NEET Monthly Local Authorities’ Client Caseload Information System (CCIS) – April 2017 (yr. 12 and13 cohort only – see Glossary) Local Education Authorities capture monthly NEET for the DfE. These are not comparable to the SFR or LFS series above. See Glossary for further guidance. “-“ temporarily unavailable.

NEET Yrs 12 and 13 Apr 2017

Actual NEET % Actual NEET* EET

Hampshire (CC) 1.8% 514 26,522

Basingstoke & Deane - - -

East Hampshire - - -

Eastleigh - - -

Fareham - - -

Gosport - - -

Hart - - -

Havant - - -

New Forest - - -

Rushmoor - - -

Test Valley - - -

Winchester - - -

Isle of Wight 2.2% 63 2,754 Source: Hampshire County Council. EET (Employment, Education or Training). *Figures are NEET figures by academic age and based on residential postcode not location of educational setting..

Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)

Page | 18

Labour Force Survey (LFS)/Annual Population Survey (APS) definitions Economically Active: People aged 16 and over who are either in employment or unemployed. The Economically active rate is the percentage of people aged 16 and over who are economically active. Employment: People aged 16 or over who did paid work in the reference week (whether employed or self-employed); those who had a job that they were temporarily away from; those on government supported training and employment programmes; and those doing unpaid family work (a person who works without pay in an economic enterprise operated by a related person living in the same household). The rate is the percentage of total in employment of all people in the relevant age group. ILO Unemployment: All people aged 16 and over who are:

without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two

weeks; or are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks.

The unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active who are unemployed. Economically Inactive: People who are neither in employment nor unemployed. This group includes, for example,

those looking after the family and/or home Long term ill Students or retired.

The inactive rate is expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 16 and over, but can be calculated for an population group, such as those of working age. Department for Work and Pensions definitions (New) Claimant Count: Based on the administrative records of people claiming unemployed benefits. Since November 2015 this has been the number of people previously claiming Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) and new or transferred unemployed claimants on Universal Credit. The claimant count consists of all people claiming JSA+UC at Jobcentre Plus local offices. They must declare that they are out of work, capable of, available for and actively seeking work during the week in which their claim is made. Nationally and regionally, the claimant rate is the number of claimants resident in an area expressed as a percentage of the sum of claimants and workforce jobs in the area (mid-year estimates are used). Sub-regionally, the claimant count is the number of claimants resident in an area expressed as a proportion of the resident population of working age. As at August 2010 working age is now 16-64 for both females and males. Worklessness: Benefits that are paid to client groups subject to labour market activation policies, including: Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA); Employment Support Allowance (ESA) or Incapacity Benefit (IB); Lone parent; and Income support (IS). Sought occupations: are the types of occupations claimants are seeking when they register.

Glossary

Page | 19

Interpreting Local Actual NEET data

Local NEET data follows a common pattern over the course of an academic year, with spikes occurring naturally each September. Young people are in transition over this period and school/college destination records not returned and recorded until October. Thereafter, rates and levels are fairly stable to August. As of September 2016 the NEET are limited to just years 12 and 13 rather than years 12-14 as before. • Local authorities will only be required to include information about young people up to the end of the academic year in which they have their 18th birthday (academic age 16 and 17). Authorities will no longer be required to track young people of academic age 18. From September 2016 the DfE will no longer publish local authority statistics about academic age 18-year-olds. – The DfE will continue to publish annual LA NEET statistics, but these will only cover academic age 16 and 17-year-olds and not academic age 18-year-olds. The NEET figure will be the Actual NEET rather then the Adjusted NEET previously published. The data is not comparable to previous NEET figures and time series will resume in November 2017 with the publication September 2017 NEET. Geography Hampshire (HCC) refers to the County Council area only. The Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) includes Hampshire County Council, Portsmouth City Council and Southampton City Council. Using the ONS definition as at January 2013: The Enterprise M3 LEP covers: New Forest, Test Valley, Winchester, East Hampshire, Basingstoke and Deane, Hart, Rushmoor, Guildford, Surrey Heath, Waverley and Woking. The Solent LEP covers the New Forest, Test Valley, Winchester, Southampton, Eastleigh, Fareham, Gosport, Portsmouth, East Hampshire, Havant and the Isle of Wight. Four Hampshire districts overlap with Solent: New Forest, East Hampshire, Test Valley and Winchester. The ONS LEP definitions may differ to definitions being used locally and based on other geographies. This publication is produced by Social and Economic Research (SER), Hampshire County Council. For further information on the bulletin or to subscribe please contact Gareth Henry (Senior Research Officer) E-mail: gareth.henry@hants.gov.uk Telephone:01962 846791

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13

September peaks September peaks