Future Earth Strategic Research Agenda 2014

Future  Earth  Finland  Townhall  Mee2ng  May  26th,  Helsinki,  Finland    ,

Heinz Gutscher, Future Earth Scientific Committee      heinz.gutscher@uzh.ch  

Impacts

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Impacts à

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Impacts à research on boundaries

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Rockström, J. et al. (2009). A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461, 472-475.

Johan Rockström, “Bounding the Planetary Future: Why We Need a Great Transition,” Great Transition Initiative (April 2015).

Rockström, J. et al. (2009). A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461, 472-475.

Impacts à research on boundaries à physical and social boundaries

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Impacts à research on boundaries à physical and social boundaries à challenge of navigating within boundaries

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Also in: WORLD SOCIAL SCIENCE REPORT 2013: CHANGING GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTS ˝ ISSC, UNESCO 2013, p. 87

Complex challenges in the Anthropocene: navigating within multidimensional boundaries

Complex challenges in the Anthropocene: navigating within multidimensional boundaries

Also in: WORLD SOCIAL SCIENCE REPORT 2013: CHANGING GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTS ˝ ISSC, UNESCO 2013, p. 86

ENVIRONMENTAL CEILING biodiversity land use change climate change freshwater use nitrogen and phosphorus cycle ocean acidification (chemical pollution) (atmospheric aerosol loading) ozone depletion

SOCIAL FOUNDATION health food water income education resilience voice jobs energy social equity gender equality

Impacts à research on boundaries à physical and social boundaries à challenge of navigating within boundaries à problematic conditions for attaining global sustainable development goals (SDG’s)

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Diversity of Priorities… Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s)

Goal  1  End  poverty  in  all  its  forms  everywhere    Goal  2  End  hunger,  achieve  food  security  and  improved  nutri?on  and  promote  sustainable  agriculture    Goal  3  Ensure  healthy  lives  and  promote  well-­‐being  for  all  at  all  ages    Goal  4  Ensure  inclusive  and  equitable  quality  educa2on  and  promote  lifelong  learning  opportuni?es  for  all    Goal  5  Achieve  gender  equality  and  empower  all  women  and  girls    Goal  6  Ensure  availability  and  sustainable  management  of  water  and  sanita2on  for  all    Goal  7  Ensure  access  to  affordable,  reliable,  sustainable  and  modern  energy  for  all    Goal  8  Promote  sustained,  inclusive  and  sustainable  economic  growth,  full  and  produc?ve  employment  and  decent  work  for  all    Goal  9  Build  resilient  infrastructure,  promote  inclusive  and  sustainable  industrializa2on  and  foster  innova2on  Goal  10  Reduce  inequality  within  and  among  countries    Goal  11  Make  ci2es  and  human  seNlements  inclusive,  safe,  resilient  and  sustainable    Goal  12  Ensure  sustainable  consump2on  and  produc2on  paNerns    Goal  13  Take  urgent  ac?on  to  combat  climate  change  and  its  impacts*    Goal  14  Conserve  and  sustainably  use  the  oceans,  seas  and  marine  resources  for  sustainable  development    Goal  15  Protect,  restore  and  promote  sustainable  use  of  terrestrial  ecosystems,  sustainably  manage  forests,  combat  deser?fica?on,  and  halt  and  reverse  land  degrada?on  and  halt  biodiversity  loss    Goal  16  Promote  peaceful  and  inclusive  socie2es  for  sustainable  development,  provide  access  to  jus?ce  for  all  and  build  effec?ve,  accountable  and  inclusive  ins?tu?ons  at  all  levels    Goal  17  Strengthen  the  means  of  implementa?on  and  revitalize  the  global  partnership  for  sustainable  development  Source:  hNps://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgsproposal  

What did we get after more than 20 years of scientific investment in global change research?

A huge amount of systems knowledge about our planet …

…and a pile of high-level publications (although partially policy relevant)…

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http://theenergycollective.com/davidhone/225866/400-ppm-and-counting

...but which all in all had a very limited impact! [at the global emergent scale at which it really counts]

Thus: A new approach was needed…

?  

Future Earth...

Future Earth...

Future Earth...

Future Earth, in a nutshell..

„Future Earth is the response to calls for international, integrated, collaborative and solutions-oriented research to respond to the urgent challenges of global environmental change and sustainable development.” Future Earth – Research for Global Sustainability, Draft initial design report, 17th April 2013, Executive Summary, p.17

Our objective

To build and connect global knowledge to intensify the impact of research and find new ways to accelerate sustainable development

Deliver  water,  energy,  and  food  for  all,  and    manage  the  synergies  and  trade-­‐offs  among  them.    Decarbonise  socio-­‐economic  systems  to  stabilise  the  climate.    Safeguard  the  terrestrial,  freshwater  and  marine    natural  assets  underpinning  human  well-­‐being.    Build  healthy,  resilient  and  produc?ve  ci2es.    Promote  sustainable  rural  futures  to  feed  rising    and  more  affluent  popula?ons.    Improve  human  health  in  rela?on  to  GEC.    Encourage  sustainable  consump2on  and    produc?on  paNerns  that  are  equitable.    Increase  social  resilience  to  future  threats    by  building  adap?ve  governance  systems.    

   

 

Future Earth 2025 Vision: Key focal challenges

Strategic  Research    Agenda  2014  

Launched  December  2014  

A. Dynamic Planet 1.  Observing and attributing change 2.  Understanding processes, risks and thresholds 3.  Projecting and predicting futures

B. Global Development 1.  Meeting basic needs and overcoming inequalities 2.  Governing sustainable development 3.  Managing growth, synergies and trade-offs

C. Transformations to sustainability 1.  Understanding and evaluating transformations 2.  Identifying and promoting sustainable behaviours 3.  Transforming development pathways

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Strategic Research Agenda 2014: Co-producing knowledge with society •  The Strategic Research Agenda 2014 advocates not just a set of research priorities,

but also a novel way of doing science.

•  Emphasis is on full integration among scientific disciplines, •  on engagement with societal partners in co-designing and co-producing

knowledge, •  on international collaboration, •  on producing knowledge that is valuable to decision-makers, •  and on generating and offering the solutions that society needs.

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Strategic Research Agenda 2014 Dynamic Planet / A1 Observing and attributing change

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7. What new methods and technologies are needed to access, organise, integrate and summarise, in an open and transparent way, the large, interdisciplinary datasets covering different forms of knowledge and data, including natural and engineering science, social science, indigenous and practice-based knowledge? How can these be used to support and facilitate scientific assessments, such as IPCC and IPBES?

Strategic Research Agenda 2014 Dynamic Planet / A2 Understanding processes, interactions, risks and thresholds

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7. What are the main drivers of human vulnerability to hazards and environmental degradation in coastal areas, and what factors foster resilient approaches to development in coastal cities and other critical zones, particularly deltas, estuaries, coastal wetlands, islands, the Arctic, and coral reefs?

Strategic Research Agenda 2014 Global Sustainable Development / B1 Meeting basic needs and overcoming inequalities

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2. What are the lifecycle implications of different energy sources, including biofuels, and energy technologies in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, water use and pollution, ecosystem services, and human health, equity and well-being?

Strategic Research Agenda 2014 Global Sustainable Development / B2 Governing sustainable development

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6. How do local communities and organisations participate in global environmental change activities? How can participation be made more effective and legitimate in reducing impacts, and increasing resilience to global environmental change?

Strategic Research Agenda 2014 Global Sustainable Development / B3 Managing growth, synergies and trade-offs

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2. How can potential conflicts over resource use be identified, mapped, predicted, and avoided or resolved (…)? 5. (…) What tools can be developed to assess these trade-offs (…) and how should preferred solutions be chosen when trade-offs exist?

Strategic Research Agenda 2014 Transformations towards sustainability / C1 Understanding and evaluating transformations

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3. How are transformations initiated in social systems? What is the role of human agency and collective action in influencing transitions in socio-ecological and socio-technological systems? 4. What are possible ‘withdrawal strategies’ (e. g. for coastal communities, cities, low-lying islands, mountain refugia) when limits to adaptation are reached?

Strategic Research Agenda 2014 Transformations towards sustainability / C2 Identifying and promoting sustainable behaviours

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5. How do communication and networking technologies facilitate information exchange, collaboration and collective action for promoting systemic change towards sustainability?

Strategic Research Agenda 2014 Transformations towards sustainability / C3 Transforming development pathways

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4. What is the nature and role of narratives (particularly around development, futures, justice, risk and disasters, conflicts) in driving human behaviour and social change, including decision-making? In what ways might these narratives influence risk mitigation and inspire transformative action towards sustainability?

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The End?

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No, it‘s a new beginning!

Thank you for your attention!

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