GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT SECOND QUARTER 2020 · 2020. 9. 24. · RSS MSTC PRCT FRST QARTR 22 1...

1GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020

Namibia Statistics AgencyP.O. Box 2133, FGI House, Post Street Mall,Windhoek, Namibia

Tel: +264 61 431 3200Fax: +264 61 431 3253

Email: [email protected]

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

SECOND QUARTER 2020

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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

SECOND QUARTER 2020

Mission Statement

“Leveraging on partnerships and innovative technologies, to produce and disseminate relevant, quality, timely statistics and spatial data

that are fit-for-purpose in accordance with international standards and best practice”

Vision Statement

“Be a high performance institution in quality statistics delivery”

Core Values

Integrity

Excellent Performance

Accuracy

Team Work

Accountability

Transparency

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PREFACE

This publication presents an overview of economic developments during the second quarter of 2020. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates assist in the analysis of short-term movements in the economy, as opposed to the annual GDP that provides in-depth and comprehensive view of the changes in the economy. Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) adopts the same concepts, definitions and structure as Annual National Accounts (ANA). The domestic economy contracted by 11.1 percent during the second quarter of 2020 compared to a decline of 3.6 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019. Making it the highest contraction recorded since the commencement of compilation of quarterly Gross Domestic Product. The last severe contraction of 6.1 percent was recorded in the first quarter of 2009, resulting from the impact of the global financial crisis. The contraction in the economy during the second quarter of 2020 is observed across the entire sectors of the economy as domestic activities were under pressure due to the impact of the COVID-19 measures that was put in place for the country to mitigate and contain the spread of the virus. The measures entailed among others, closing of the country’s borders and only allowing businesses that provides essential services to operate. However, of the 16 sectors under observation, 3 sectors recorded positive performance during the period under review. The improved performances were observed in ‘Agriculture and forestry’, Information and communication and Health sectors that recorded growth rates of 47.2 percent, 11.0 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. The positive performance in ‘Agriculture and forestry’ is due to a bumper harvest in the cereal production resulting from good rainfalls experienced during the period under review. The ‘Information and communication’ sector growth results from increased activities in the usage of data as demand surged up for data and calls as workers switch from working from offices to homes. This was further exacerbated by demand from higher institutions switching from face to face teaching to online learning.

Acceleration in the Health sector is owed to the easing of fiscal consolidation policy in the health sector and coupled with the emergence of the pandemic that saw increased activities resulting in the employment of more health workers to assist in containing the disease.

I would like to emphasise the importance of accurate and timely delivery of data from our stakeholders in the private and public sectors to the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA), on which the compilation of quarterly GDP depends. Further let me express my appreciation to all the data providers; both the institutions and individuals, without whose contributions the publication would not have been possible.

................................... ALEX SHIMUAFENI STATISTICIAN-GENERAL & CEO Windhoek, September 2020

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Table of Contents

PREFACE ............................................................................................................................................................ 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS.............................................................................................................................................. 5

1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 6

2 REVISIONS ..................................................................................................................................................... 6

3 DATA SOURCES AND TIMELINESS .................................................................................................................. 7

4 KEY FINDINGS ................................................................................................................................................ 7

4.1 AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY ...................................................................................................................... 10 4.2 FISHING AND FISH PROCESSING ON BOARD ...................................................................................................... 12 4.3 MINING AND QUARRYING ........................................................................................................................... 13 4.4 MANUFACTURING .................................................................................................................................... 15 4.5 ELECTRICITY AND WATER ............................................................................................................................ 17 4.6 CONSTRUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 19 4.7 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE ................................................................................................................... 21 4.8 HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS ......................................................................................................................... 22 4.9 TRANSPORT AND STORAGE .......................................................................................................................... 23 4.10 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS .......................................................................................................... 25 4.11 FINANCIAL SERVICES ACTIVITIES .................................................................................................................... 25 4.12 REAL ESTATE ACTIVITIES AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES ACTIVITIES ......................................................................... 28 4.13 ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICES ....................................................................................................... 28 4.14 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, EDUCATION AND HEALTH ......................................................................................... 29 4.15 OTHER SERVICES ...................................................................................................................................... 30

APPENDIX 1 METHODOLOGICAL NOTES ......................................................................................................... 39

1 Introduction

The main purpose for compiling quarterly national accounts is to provide timely and more frequent picture of economic developments, unlike the annual national accounts that is published once a year. Quarterly data determine the short-term movements in the series, while the annual data determine the overall level and long-term movements in the series. In principle, the only difference between quarterly and annual national accounts is the reference period and the scope of coverage, where the annual national accounts provide a more comprehensive scope of data coverage.

The definitions and conceptual frameworks, as well as the accounts and accounting identities of the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA2008) are followed for both accounts. Since quarterly and annual estimates are often based on different data sources, the annual total derived from the sum of the four quarters under consideration differs from annual estimates based on a more comprehensive sources of data. Therefore, in order to make them comparable, quarterly estimates are benchmarked to their annual estimates during the compilation of the quarterly GDP.

Benchmarking is the process of combining a time series of high frequency data with less frequent but more accurate data.

2 Revisions

Revisions in the National Accounts are always necessary because it allows for incorporation of additional and improved data that were not available at the release date. The revisions are also caused by the process of reconciling the quarterly measures with the annual measures as the quarterly measures are based on a smaller range of data than the annual measures. Depending on the extent of availability of more comprehensive data, revisions are made to estimate of the quarters up to the last three years. The revisions made in the first quarter of 2020 are outlined in Table 1. Based on the revised changes, real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2020 posted a contraction of 1.8 percent compared to a decline of 0.8 percent that was reported in the first quarter GDP publication. The major revisions were observed in the following sectors: ‘Hotels and restaurants’ (-11.7 percentage points), ‘Electricity and water’ (-11.0 percentage points) and Fishing subsector (-7.0 percent). The revision in the sectors was mainly necessitated by the updated data received from sources.

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Table A: Sectoral Growth Rates Revisions for the First Quarter of 2020

Sector First quarter

2020 in percent as recorded

Revised first quarter 2020 in

percent Difference

Agriculture -13.0 -15.0 -2.0 Fishing 3.1 -3.9 -7.0 Mining and quarrying -3.3 -3.3 0.0 Manufacturing -8.3 -8.5 -0.2 Electricity and water 1.6 -9.4 -11.0 Construction 19.8 21.5 1.7 Wholesale and retail trade -0.5 -1.0 -0.6 Hotels and restaurants -4.1 -15.7 -11.7 Transport and storage -7.0 -8.1 -1.1 Information and communications 6.2 6.2 0.0 Financial service activities 2.4 2.4 0.0 Real estate activities and professional services 2.7 4.0 1.3 Administrative and support services -5.0 -2.9 2.1 Public administration -2.5 -2.5 0.0 Education 5.8 5.8 0.0 Health 2.3 2.3 0.0 Other private services -1.4 -1.3 0.1 All industries at basic prices -0.9 -1.7 -0.8 Taxes on products 1.1 -3.1 -4.2 GDP -0.8 -1.8 -1.0

* When calculating the differences in the figures above, there may occur slight differences that are due to rounding to the nearest decimal.

3 Data sources and timeliness

The sources for quarterly national accounts data are quarterly economic surveys and administrative data. Quarterly GDP estimates are released with a time lag of maximum 90 days from the reference quarter. 4 Key findings

The real GDP contracted by 11.1 percent during the period under review, compared to a decline of 3.6 percent in the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 1). The deeper reduction in the domestic economy was observed across all sectors of the economy except for the ‘Agriculture and forestry’, ‘Information and communication’ and Health sectors. The poor performance of the

economy was mainly due to the impact of measures that was put in place to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Figure 1: GDP growth rates ‘Hotels and restaurants’ sector recorded the deepest contraction of 64.2 percent in real value added compared to an increase of 12.3 percent registered in the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 2). The poor performance in the sector emanated from depressed demand for leisure activities due to the lock-down imposed across the country resulting in massive cancelation of bookings from domestic and international travellers. However, a strong performance was observed in the ‘Agriculture and forestry’ sector which recorded 47.2 percent in real value added for the second quarter of 2020 compared to a decline of 31.8 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The strong performance is attributed to a bumper harvest experienced by the farmers due to favourable rainfall.

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Figure 2: Economic sectors value added performance growth rates Inasmuch as the Hotels and Restaurants sector recorded the deepest contraction of 64.2 percent, the contribution to the overall decline of 11.1 percent represents a reduction of 1.3 percentage points whereas the highest percentage point contributor is the manufacturing sector that posted 4.4 percentage points to the overall GDP growth rate (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Contribution to GDP growth rate

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4.1 Agriculture and forestry The ‘Agriculture and forestry’ sector surged to 47.2 percent in real value added during the second quarter of 2020, relative to a steeper contraction of 31.8 percent registered during the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 4).

The main driver for the improved performance stems from an increase in activities of the Crop farming subsector which posted a massive growth of 296.7 percent in real value added compared to decline of 61.0 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The exceptional performance in Crop subsector arises from favorable rainfall experienced during the rainy seasons resulting in a bumper crop harvest.

Figure 4: Agriculture real value added growth rates However, the Livestock farming subsector recorded a poor performance, registering a decline of 78.2 percent in real value added compared to a growth of 7.7 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The poor performance emanates from declines in both cattle and small stock (Figure 5). Despite the good rainy seasons experienced, prior consecutive drought periods that were experienced have severely impacted on the stock-herd and the available marketable

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Value Added Agriculture Crop farming

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animals. The imposition of the lock-down further reduced the number of livestock marketed as limited auctions took place.

In terms of large livestock marketed, the activities dropped by 49.8 percent relative to an increase of 46.9 percent in the same quarter of 2019. Furthermore, live cattle exports declined by 72.6 percent relative to an increase of 45.3 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

A similar trend is observed in the small stock marketed to ‘abattoirs and butchers’ and those exported live which dropped by 65.2 percent and 53.2 percent, respectively. However, for both, changes in inventory shows a recovery trend due to restocking resulting in low numbers of animals available for marketing.

Figure 5: Number of livestock marketed, volume index 2015 = 100

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4.2 Fishing and fish processing on board The ‘Fishing and fish processing on board’ sector registered a decline of 10.5 percent in real value added in the second quarter of 2020 compared to a decline of 4.5 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019, (Figure 6).

Figure 6: Fishing and fish processing on board real value added growth rates

The weak performance witnessed in the sector was mainly reflected in demersal fisheries landings, which recorded a decline of 12.2 percent (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Fish landings, volume index 2015= 100

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4.3 Mining and quarrying

The ‘Mining and quarrying’ sector registered a decline of 2.6 percent in real value added during the second quarter of 2020, compared to a deeper contraction of 25.5 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter 2019 (Figure 8). The decline was mainly reflected in the uranium and other mining & quarrying subsectors that registered contractions of 16.9 percent, and 18.0 percent, respectively.

Figure 8: Mining and quarrying value added growth rates

The uranium subsector’s real value added declined by 16.9 percent during the second quarter of 2020 compared to a decline of 6.3 percent registered in the same quarter of 2019. This performance was mainly attributed to a decrease in volume of uranium produced that emanated from the lockdown imposed by government specifically in the month of April 2020 (Figure 9).

Figure 9: Uranium production in short tons

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The ‘Other mining and quarrying’ subsector also declined by 18.0 percent in the real value added during the period under review, compared to a growth of 3.7 percent registered in same period of 2019. The contraction in the subsector was reflected in the decline in production of granite and common salt.

However, the ‘Diamond’ and ‘Metal ores’ subsectors registered positive growths of 4.7 percent and 10.0 percent in real value added, respectively. The improved performance in diamond mining subsector is attributed to the increased production during the review period, (Figure 10).

Figure 10: Diamond production and sales (‘000 carats)

The ‘Metal ores’ subsector recorded a positive growth of 10.0 percent in real value added during the second quarter of 2020, compared to 1.7 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The performance in metal ore is mainly owed to gold production that increased by 19.6 percent in the period under review (Figure 11).

Figure 11: Metal Ores Volume Index 2015 = 100

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4.4 Manufacturing The ‘Manufacturing’ sector recorded a decline of 30.8 percent in real value added during the second quarter of 2020 compared to a growth of 12.9 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 12).

Figure 12: Manufacturing real value added growth rates The contractionary performance in the sector is observed across the majority of the subsectors of manufacturing. Primarily the decline in the sector is attributed to massive declines in the subsectors of beverages, basic metals, and diamond processing that registered negative growths of 51.1 percent, 30.4 percent and 53.9 percent during the second quarter of 2020 compared to strong growths of 22.3 percent, 47.8 percent and 0.8 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019, respectively (Figure 13).

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Figure 13: Beverages, basic metals and diamond processing real value added growth rate

Similarly, subsectors such as ‘Other food products’, ‘Fabricated metals’ and ‘Meat processing’ have also registered massive declines in real value added of 17.1 percent, 40.3 percent and 85.6 percent during the period under review compared to strong growth rates of 25.6 percent, 21.1 percent and 19.7 percent registered in the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 14).

Figure 14: Other food products, fabricated metal products and meat processing real value added growth rates

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Other subsectors also registered negative growths in real value added such as ‘Dairy products’ (-52.4%), ‘Leather and leather products’ (-43.6%), ‘Rubber and plastic products’ (-54.0%), ‘Paper products, Publishing and printing’ (-49.0%), ‘Fish processing on shore’ (-16.5%) and ‘Wood and wood products’ (-13.5%).

On the other hand, the ‘Grain mill products’ subsector registered a slow growth of 4.0 percent during the second quarter of 2020 compared to a growth of 14.3 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2019.

4.5 Electricity and water The ‘Electricity and water’ sector recorded a contraction of 2.5 percent in real value added during the period under review compared to a growth of 3.7 percent posted in the second quarter of 2019 (Figure 15).

Figure 15: Electricity and water real value added growth rates

The performance of the sector is attributed to the electricity subsector that plunged further, posting a 5.4 percent decline in real value added during the second quarter of 2020 compared to a contraction of 1.8 percent observed in the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 16). The contraction in the electricity subsector was due to a reduction in the sale and distribution of electricity as most of the economic activity in industrial and mining production halted or operated at lower level of capacity prompted by the COVID-19 measures.

On the other hand, the Water subsector posted a marginal growth of 2.1 percent in real value added in the second quarter of 2020 in comparison to a growth of 13.7 percent estimated in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The performance is attributed to the increase witnessed in human consumption of water sold.

Figure 16: Electricity and water subsectors real value added growth rates1 During the period under review, the volume of electricity sold stood at 880 881 kWh, which is a contraction of 12.6 percent (Figure 17).

Figure 17: Total units of electricity sold in millions of KWH

1 Figure 16, in order to improve read-ability, we have limited the chart scale to 40 and -30 percentage points

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The country’s own generation of electricity stood at 651 140 kWh, representing a huge increase of 79.9 percent, whereas the import of electricity stood at 539 317 kWh, a contraction of 30.6 percent when compared to the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 18).

Figure 18: Sources of electricity in millions of KWH

4.6 Construction2 The Construction sector recorded a contraction of 0.7 percent in real value added during the second quarter of 2020 compared to a growth of 1.3 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 19).

2 The methodology to estimate value added for construction uses a simple moving average of two quarters of government construction, import of

cement, and building completed as construction spans over time

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Figure 19: Construction real value added growth rate

The performance in the sector was reflected in real value of buildings completed and the production of cement, that posted a massive declines of 44.3 percent and 17.4 percent during the second quarter of 2020 compared to strong growths of 48.3 percent and 79.1 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 20).

Figure 20: Real value of buildings completed – millions N$

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Furthermore, the government expenditure on construction recorded a slow growth in the real value added of 38.9 percent compared to a strong growth of 52.8 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 21).

Figure 21: Real value of Government Expenditure on construction– millions N$

4.7 Wholesale and retail trade The ‘Wholesale and retail trade’ sector registered a decline of 22.5 percent in real value added during the second quarter of 2020 compared to a decline of 8.6 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 22).

Figure 22: Wholesale and retail trade real value added growth rates

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The performance of the sector is reflected in the revenue of wholesale and retail trade that declined by 19.2 percent during the second quarter of 2020 (Figure 23).

Figure 23: Revenue of Wholesale and retail trade – Millions N$

4.8 Hotels and restaurants The ‘Hotels and restaurants’ sector recorded a massive decline in real value added of 64.2 percent during the second quarter of 2020 compared to a growth of 12.3 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 24).

Figure 24: Hotels and restaurants real value added growth rates

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The contraction in the sector mainly emanated from the Hotels subsector that registered a decline of 70.6 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (Figure 25). In addition, the Restaurants subsector also registered a decline of 54.3 percent in the second quarter of 2020 compared to a decline of 9.3 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

Figure 25: Growth rates in number of bed nights and room nights sold3

4.9 Transport and storage During the second quarter of 2020, the ‘Transport and storage’ sector registered deep contraction of 30.4 percent in real value added compared to a positive growth of 1.3 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2019, (Figure 26).

3 Figure 25, in order to improve read-ability, we have limited the chart scale to -30 percentage points.

Figure 26: Transport and storage real value added growth rates

The performance of the sector is attributed to all the subsectors of ‘Transport and storage’ that recorded declines in real value added with the exception of ‘Port services’ subsector that registered a positive growth of 5.8 percent and ‘Other supporting and auxiliary activities’ (25.4%).

The other subsectors contracted as follows during the second quarter of 2020: Railway transport (-22.5%), Air transport (-95.0 %), Passenger transport by road (-0.9 %), ‘Post and courier activities’ (-3.0%), Freight transport by road (-24.5%) and Airport services registered (-75.5%). The declines in the subsectors were attributed to the lock-down measure that restricted movement of passengers and permitted limited freight of goods only.

Figure 27: Cargo handled in thousands of tonnes

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Contrary to the weak performance experienced across the most subsectors of ‘Transport and storage’, the Port services subsector recorded a positive growth of 5.8 percent in real value added compared to a decline of 5.5 percent in the same quarter of 2019. The improved performance is attributed to an increase in the cargo handled at the port, (Figure 27).

4.10 Information and communications

The ‘Information and communication’ sector recorded a positive growth of 11.0 percent in real value added, compared to 6.8 percent growth registered in the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 28).

Figure 28: Information and communication value added growth rates

The positive performance in the sector is attributed to the number of minutes used that increased during the period under review.

4.11 Financial services activities The ‘Financial services activities’ sector contracted by 1.3 percent in real value added during the second quarter of 2020 compared to a growth of 6.2 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 29).

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Figure 29: Financial service activities real value added growth rates

The performance of the sector was reflected in both Banking and Insurance subsectors that recorded declines of 0.4 percent and 2.1 percent in real value added compared to increases of 0.7 percent and 12.5 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019, respectively (Figure 30).

Figure 30: Banking and insurance real value added growth rates

The weak performance of the sector is owed to economic uncertainty brought about by the pandemic which resulted in reduced demands for loans extended to households and businesses

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within the banking activities. Furthermore, a rise in the cancelation of short and long terms insurance policy are being observed as retrenchments and pay-cuts are growing. Figure 31 below depicts the deposits made by all sectors; claims made by the private and net claims by the government sector since the first quarter of 2014.

Figure 31: Deposits and claims Year on year total deposits made by all sectors rose by 15.0 percent during the period under review while total stock of deposits stood at N$ 120.8 billion compared to N$ 105.0 billion recorded in the same quarter of 2019. Furthermore, claims by central government in the second quarter of 2020 increased by 38.1 percent, to N$ 28.3 billion in comparison to N$ 20.5 billion of the corresponding period.

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4.12 Real Estate activities and Professional services activities During the second quarter of 2020, the ‘Real estate activities and ‘Professional services activities recorded a decline of 2.7 percent in real value added in comparison to a growth of 0.3 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2019.

Figure 32: Real estate and professional services activities real value added growth rates

The decline in performance of the sector was mainly attributed to the real estate sector that recorded a decline of 1.5 percent in real value added, as well as the Professional services activities sector that recorded a decline of 13.1 percent during the period under review, (Figure 32).

The performance of the sectors is due to the state of emergency measures implemented to reduce the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. These measures ranged from full and partial lockdowns on social and economic activities. As a result, businesses were affected by slow operations and reduced revenue.

4.13 Administrative and support services Administrative and support services leaped into a contraction of 29.2 percent in real value added in the second quarter of 2020 from a growth of 3.0 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2019, (Figure 33).

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Figure 33: Administrative and support services real value added growth rates

This contraction in the sector is attributed to ‘Car rentals and travel agent’ activities which were halted by travel ban due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

4.14 Public Administration, Education and Health

The ‘Public administration’ sector contracted by 5.1 percent in real value added compared to a decline of 1.5 percent during the corresponding quarter of 2019. The COVID-19 measures introduced caused a reduction in the productivity within central government employees, mainly from those that were identified as providing non-essential services during the pandemic crisis.

The ‘Education’ sector declined by 1.2 percent in real value added in the second quarter of 2020 compared to a growth 2.6 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The performance of the sector was mainly attributed to the reduced education services delivered brought about by the pandemic, which resulted in the suspension of face to face teaching particularly during the implementation of COVID-19 measures in stage 1 and 2.

The ‘Health’ sector registered a strong growth 6.0 percent in real value added during the period under review compared to a decline of 4.9 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The performance of the sector is attributed to the government incentives that was put in place to support the health sector in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. These incentives are evident in the increased number of health personnel and health related materials needed to combat the spread of the virus.

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

4.15 Other services

Other services comprises of ‘Arts, entertainment recreation’, ‘Other community, social and personal service activities’ and ‘Private households with employees’. The sector declined by a massive 43.7 percent in real value added during the second quarter of 2020 compared to a decline of 2.2 percent recorded in 2019.

The reduction in the sector is owed to ‘Arts, entertainment recreation’, and private households with employed persons that declined by 61.2 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively. ‘Other community, social and personal service activities’ on the other hand recorded an increase of 8.2 percent during the period under review. The reduction in Arts, entertainment recreation is attributed to the state of emergency measure that had suspended all entertainment of live concerts and contact sports.

31

Table B: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Current Prices - million N$

Year Quarter Agriculture and forestry

Fishing Mining and quarrying

Manufac-turing

Electricity and water

Construc-tion

Wholesale and retail trade

Hotels and restau-rants

Transport and Storage

2013 1 1,004 1,062 2,567 3,141 701 1,141 2,729 375 685 2 2,126 945 3,350 3,115 638 917 3,389 391 720 3 878 802 2,771 2,795 566 1,307 3,584 554 834 4 1,543 825 3,239 3,064 616 1,245 3,787 497 788

2014 1 1,065 1,181 2,366 2,717 874 1,894 3,690 454 826 2 2,972 1,113 3,912 3,194 773 1,163 3,877 508 852 3 1,144 1,182 3,077 3,338 660 1,885 4,367 761 1,006 4 1,660 657 3,472 4,111 602 1,869 4,518 646 921

2015 1 1,112 1,023 2,967 3,714 717 2,321 3,890 603 1,098 2 1,976 1,017 3,303 4,389 411 1,703 4,036 624 1,057 3 1,101 1,072 3,035 4,111 895 1,931 4,298 798 1,208 4 1,657 752 3,661 4,457 526 2,105 4,171 740 1,178

2016 1 1,090 1,153 3,487 4,389 1,352 1,295 3,949 671 1,083 2 2,235 1,309 3,421 4,602 740 1,155 4,020 671 1,116 3 882 1,133 3,553 4,541 2,086 1,340 4,140 958 1,354 4 1,871 924 4,384 4,885 1,003 1,157 4,650 850 1,423

2017 1 1,287 1,343 2,885 4,649 1,769 811 4,537 691 1,415 2 3,330 958 2,975 5,155 870 734 4,626 751 1,146 3 1,734 1,201 4,195 5,441 2,157 1,195 4,516 1,000 1,201 4 2,325 992 3,951 5,720 977 1,256 4,862 803 1,474

2018 1 1,780 1,194 3,521 5,250 2,009 1,172 4,506 767 1,1492 3,782 1,186 3,528 5,698 1,167 596 4,732 763 1,2123 1,737 1,210 4,350 5,791 2,409 1,022 4,136 1,140 1,4144 2,406 930 4,608 5,636 1,081 1,037 4,545 811 1,599

2019 1 1,748 1,197 4,069 4,910 1,921 915 4,473 812 1,430 2 2,579 1,349 3,489 6,159 1,018 894 4,872 904 1,275 3 1,537 1,306 4,175 5,317 2,199 1,207 4,097 1,092 1,402 4 2,361 1,119 4,838 5,727 979 1,151 4,741 943 1,191

2020 1 1,199 1,440 3,068 4,471 2,095 1,082 4,766 700 1,381 2 4,100 1,258 4,883 4,229 1,116 754 3,952 332 898

Table B: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Current Prices - million N$ (Cont)

Year Quarter Information and Communication

Financial service activities

Real estate and Professional services activities

Administrative and suppport services

Public admi-nistration

Education Health Other services

All indust. at basic prices

Taxes on products

GDP at market prices

2013 1 535 1,129 1,846 332 3,929 2,299 862 669 25,006 2,036 27,0422 266 1,733 2,038 436 2,638 2,338 1,038 662 26,741 2,308 29,0493 619 2,964 1,978 424 4,058 3,069 1,007 672 28,881 2,411 31,2924 327 1,781 1,804 493 2,817 2,880 1,124 698 27,529 2,511 30,039

2014 1 792 1,001 1,921 307 3,758 2,997 1,397 741 27,980 2,241 30,2212 399 2,137 1,645 459 3,160 3,024 953 775 30,915 2,317 33,2323 861 2,191 2,520 402 4,444 3,438 936 801 33,013 2,679 35,6914 475 2,538 2,034 578 3,435 3,159 1,286 817 32,777 2,915 35,691

2015 1 748 2,524 1,686 321 4,313 3,228 1,469 825 32,559 2,574 35,133 2 364 2,345 2,112 505 3,659 3,070 1,115 837 32,523 2,700 35,223 3 676 2,357 2,150 521 4,941 3,265 1,146 854 34,360 3,060 37,420 4 319 2,949 2,656 586 3,794 3,245 1,453 874 35,124 3,118 38,242

2016 1 729 2,885 1,735 341 4,636 3,902 1,577 899 35,175 2,934 38,1092 397 2,271 2,167 418 3,614 3,505 1,310 922 33,874 2,979 36,8533 766 2,842 2,838 392 4,907 3,735 1,259 943 37,670 3,219 40,8894 456 2,888 2,578 592 4,487 3,742 1,489 963 38,342 3,515 41,857

2017 1 852 2,933 1,925 361 5,473 4,355 1,825 981 38,091 3,138 41,2292 436 3,012 2,389 416 3,958 3,991 1,428 998 37,175 3,182 40,3573 825 3,384 2,795 469 5,063 4,112 1,521 1,014 41,823 3,322 45,1454 508 2,956 3,198 553 5,128 4,080 1,579 1,030 41,392 3,447 44,839

2018 1 551 3,083 2,673 308 5,966 4,253 1,936 1,044 41,162 3,262 44,4232 446 3,587 2,360 419 4,686 4,252 1,166 1,056 40,633 3,425 44,0583 832 3,397 2,959 542 5,063 4,412 1,503 1,064 42,982 3,369 46,3514 630 3,778 2,780 629 5,062 4,524 1,555 1,069 42,680 3,497 46,177

2019 1 616 3,428 2,034 342 5,757 4,558 1,903 1,072 41,185 3,265 44,4502 496 2,800 3,137 450 4,206 4,601 1,183 1,073 40,484 3,483 43,9673 667 3,154 3,231 460 5,582 4,806 1,454 1,075 42,761 3,144 45,905 4 802 3,091 3,107 577 5,399 4,875 1,466 1,075 43,441 3,470 46,911

2020 1 807 2,122 2,722 343 5,840 4,833 1,572 1,075 39,514 3,130 42,645 2 791 1,970 2,005 325 3,913 4,417 1,372 629 36,944 3,238 40,182

33

Table C: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Current Prices – Percentage share to GDP

Year Quarter Agriculture and forestry

Fishing Mining and quarrying

Manufac-turing

Electricity and water

Construc-tion

Wholesale and retail trade

Hotels and restau-rants

Transport and storage

2013 1 3.7 3.9 9.5 11.6 2.6 4.2 10.1 1.4 2.52 7.3 3.3 11.5 10.7 2.2 3.2 11.7 1.3 2.53 2.8 2.6 8.9 8.9 1.8 4.2 11.5 1.8 2.74 5.1 2.7 10.8 10.2 2.1 4.1 12.6 1.7 2.6

2014 1 3.5 3.9 7.8 9.0 2.9 6.3 12.2 1.5 2.72 8.9 3.3 11.8 9.6 2.3 3.5 11.7 1.5 2.63 3.2 3.3 8.6 9.4 1.8 5.3 12.2 2.1 2.84 4.7 1.8 9.7 11.5 1.7 5.2 12.7 1.8 2.6

2015 1 3.2 2.9 8.4 10.6 2.0 6.6 11.1 1.7 3.12 5.6 2.9 9.4 12.5 1.2 4.8 11.5 1.8 3.03 2.9 2.9 8.1 11.0 2.4 5.2 11.5 2.1 3.24 4.3 2.0 9.6 11.7 1.4 5.5 10.9 1.9 3.1

2016 1 2.9 3.0 9.1 11.5 3.5 3.4 10.4 1.8 2.82 6.1 3.6 9.3 12.5 2.0 3.1 10.9 1.8 3.03 2.2 2.8 8.7 11.1 5.1 3.3 10.1 2.3 3.34 4.5 2.2 10.5 11.7 2.4 2.8 11.1 2.0 3.4

2017 1 3.1 3.3 7.0 11.3 4.3 2.0 11.0 1.7 3.42 8.3 2.4 7.4 12.8 2.2 1.8 11.5 1.9 2.83 3.8 2.7 9.3 12.1 4.8 2.6 10.0 2.2 2.74 5.2 2.2 8.8 12.8 2.2 2.8 10.8 1.8 3.3

2018 1 4.0 2.7 7.9 11.8 4.5 2.6 10.1 1.7 2.62 8.6 2.7 8.0 12.9 2.6 1.4 10.7 1.7 2.83 3.7 2.6 9.4 12.5 5.2 2.2 8.9 2.5 3.14 5.2 2.0 10.0 12.2 2.3 2.2 9.8 1.8 3.5

2019 1 3.9 2.7 9.2 11.0 4.3 2.1 10.1 1.8 3.22 5.9 3.1 7.9 14.0 2.3 2.0 11.1 2.1 2.93 3.3 2.8 9.1 11.6 4.8 2.6 8.9 2.4 3.14 5.0 2.4 10.3 12.2 2.1 2.5 10.1 2.0 2.5

2020 1 2.8 3.4 7.2 10.5 4.9 2.5 11.2 1.6 3.22 10.2 3.1 12.2 10.5 2.8 1.9 9.8 0.8 2.2

Table C: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Current Prices – Percentage share to GDP (Cont...)

Year Quarter Information and communication

Financial services activities

Real estate and Professional services activities

Administrative and suppport services

Public admi-nistration

Education Health Other services

All indust. at basic prices

Taxes on products

GDP at market prices

2013 1 2.0 4.2 6.8 1.2 14.5 8.5 3.2 2.5 92.5 7.5 100.02 0.9 6.0 7.0 1.5 9.1 8.0 3.6 2.3 92.1 7.9 100.03 2.0 9.5 6.3 1.4 13.0 9.8 3.2 2.1 92.3 7.7 100.04 1.1 5.9 6.0 1.6 9.4 9.6 3.7 2.3 91.6 8.4 100.0

2014 1 2.6 3.3 6.4 1.0 12.4 9.9 4.6 2.5 92.6 7.4 100.02 1.2 6.4 4.9 1.4 9.5 9.1 2.9 2.3 93.0 7.0 100.03 2.4 6.1 7.1 1.1 12.5 9.6 2.6 2.2 92.5 7.5 100.04 1.3 7.1 5.7 1.6 9.6 8.9 3.6 2.3 91.8 8.2 100.0

2015 1 2.1 7.2 4.8 0.9 12.3 9.2 4.2 2.3 92.7 7.3 100.02 1.0 6.7 6.0 1.4 10.4 8.7 3.2 2.4 92.3 7.7 100.03 1.8 6.3 5.7 1.4 13.2 8.7 3.1 2.3 91.8 8.2 100.04 0.8 7.7 6.9 1.5 9.9 8.5 3.8 2.3 91.8 8.2 100.0

2016 1 1.9 7.6 4.6 0.9 12.2 10.2 4.1 2.4 92.3 7.7 100.02 1.1 6.2 5.9 1.1 9.8 9.5 3.6 2.5 91.9 8.1 100.03 1.9 7.0 6.9 1.0 12.0 9.1 3.1 2.3 92.1 7.9 100.04 1.1 6.9 6.2 1.4 10.7 8.9 3.6 2.3 91.6 8.4 100.0

2017 1 2.1 7.1 4.7 0.9 13.3 10.6 4.4 2.4 92.4 7.6 100.02 1.1 7.5 5.9 1.0 9.8 9.9 3.5 2.5 92.1 7.9 100.03 1.8 7.5 6.2 1.0 11.2 9.1 3.4 2.2 92.6 7.4 100.04 1.1 6.6 7.1 1.2 11.4 9.1 3.5 2.3 92.3 7.7 100.0

2018 1 1.2 6.9 6.0 0.7 13.4 9.6 4.4 2.4 92.7 7.3 100.02 1.0 8.1 5.4 1.0 10.6 9.7 2.6 2.4 92.2 7.8 100.03 1.8 7.3 6.4 1.2 10.9 9.5 3.2 2.3 92.7 7.3 100.04 1.4 8.2 6.0 1.4 11.0 9.8 3.4 2.3 92.4 7.6 100.0

2019 1 1.4 7.7 4.6 0.8 13.0 10.3 4.3 2.4 92.7 7.3 100.02 1.1 6.4 7.1 1.0 9.6 10.5 2.7 2.4 92.1 7.9 100.03 1.5 6.9 7.0 1.0 12.2 10.5 3.2 2.3 93.2 6.8 100.04 1.7 6.6 6.6 1.2 11.5 10.4 3.1 2.3 92.6 7.4 100.0

2020 1 1.9 5.0 6.4 0.8 13.7 11.3 3.7 2.5 92.7 7.3 100.02 2.0 4.9 5.0 0.8 9.7 11.0 3.4 1.6 91.9 8.1 100.0

35

Table D: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2015 Prices - million N$

Table D: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2015 Prices - million N$ (Cont)

37

Table E: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2015 Prices – Percentage changes

Table E: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2015 Prices – Percentage changes (Cont...)

39

Appendix 1 Methodological Notes

System of National Accounts 2008:

The SNA 2008 is an internationally agreed methodology used for compilation of national accounts estimates published by the United Nations in co-operation with other international organizations. This means that the methodology, concepts and classifications are in accordance with the latest guidelines of an internationally agreed system of national accounts.

Quarterly GDP estimates:

Quarterly estimates of value added in real terms are less comprehensive and therefore need to be aligned to the annual real estimates. Short-term indicators are used to estimate the quarterly GDP. In terms of coverage, quarterly indicators are not as reliable as in instances where the results of annual estimates are used. Therefore, the quarterly estimates must be adapted to the independent annual estimates when such estimates become available. To this extent, the Proportional Denton Method, which is a technique that generates a series of the quarterly estimates as proportional to the indicator as possible subject to the restrictions provided by the annual data is used.

Classifications:

The estimates of value added by industry are classified according to the fourth revision of the International Standard Industrial Classification of all Economic Activities (ISIC), with suitable adaptations for Namibian conditions.

FISIM: Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured

Rounding off:

There may be rounding off differences that may occur when manually calculating figures as compared to the values published in this report. This report used the MS Excel to round off to the nearest decimal. Please refer to the excel tables.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202054

Namibia Statistics AgencyP.O. Box 2133, FGI House, Post Street Mall,Windhoek, Namibia

Tel: +264 61 431 3200Fax: +264 61 431 3253

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