Greg AutryMerage School of Business, UC

Irvine

EC

RI

Weekly

In

dex

Yie

ld

Sp

read

Yield Invert

s

Yield Invert

s

Source: Greg Autry & Peter Navarro Financial Executive, DEC 09

Yield Invert

s

Yield Invert

s

Yield Invert

s

Yield Invert

s

ECRI ECRI SlidSlideses

ECRI ECRI SlideSlidess

ECRI ECRI SlidSlideses

ISM Manufacturing Index

Existing Home Sales

Chicago Fed National Activity Index 

ECRI Weekly Leading Index 

But wait, there’s more!

9 MILLION

10.2 MILLION

Exte

nded

Emer

genc

y

Benefi

ts

“Disc

oura

ge

d W

orke

rs”

College Students - enrollments soars to highest since Vietnam

Millions of cash workers and illegal's - not counted

Millions of “Underemployed” – employed but unable to spend

Those that have jobs are terrified of losing them

If you loose your mid-level management position, you are very unlikely to get it back

Savings climbs

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

There will only be a Christmas if Uncle Sam has bought us one from China on credit

Inventories are again growing dangerously out of sync with jobs and consumer confidence

ECRI

The problem we face is not the business cycle

Our structural bills have come due from: Entitlement programs Decline in STEM education Quarterly attitude = shunned R&D and

investment Horrid trade policy – CHINA, CHINA, CHINA