Green Innovation tantangan dan peluangarmisusandi.com/kuliah/Farhan Helmy - Green...
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Green Innovation:
tantangan dan peluang
Farhan HelmyMitigation Working [email protected]
Kuliah UmumBandung, 1 Maret 2011
1
Outline
▪ Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa
depan?
▪ Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca
(GRK)Indonesia
• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low Carbon
Growth Strategies, LCGS)
• Power by Example
o Green ICT
o Urban Resoration
o Pemetaan 100 Desa
Interests :
strong state and corporations, weak society?
Management of Commons
[forestry, environment, knowledge, disaster]
potential of governments and market/private failures
Community based Social Innovation
[open source, digital contents, disaster management, 3R, etc.]
independent from government, strong network but limited scale!
Micro-trends as a result of Globalization and
the advancement of Information
and communication technologies
Society
We!!
Stock Taking 2011: Where do we stand?
Visi masa depan?
• Peter Senge (2010), The Necessary Revolution: (1). There is no viable path forward that does not taking into account the future generations
(2). Institutions matters
(3). All real change is grounded in new ways of thinking and perceiption
• Anatole Kaletsky (2010), Capitalism 4.0: “…global capitalism will be replaced by nothing other than global capitalism. The traumatic events of 2007-2009 neither destroy or diminish the fundamental human urges that have always powered the systems –ambition, initiative, individualisms, the competitive spirit. These natural human qualities will be instead be redirected and reenergized to create a new version of capitalism that will ultimately be even more successful and productive than the system it replaced
• Thomas L. Friedman(2010), Hot, Flat and Crowded
• Rhenald Kasali (2011), The Cracking Zone
• Don Tapscot (2010), Macro Wikinomics: Rebooting Bussiness and the World
• etc.
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Gambut Indonesia
1.5 GtCO2e
Sumbangan emisi Indonesia signifikan secara global
~
Transportasi Udara dan Laut Global
1.8 GtCO2e
Indonesia total
2.8 GtCO2e
Inggris, Perancis, Itali, Jerman (gabungan)
2.71 GtCO2e
Emisi 2005 CO2e
1 2.7 = 0.6 (UK) + 0.5 (France) + 0.6 (Italy) + 1.0 (Germany)
SOURCE: McKinsey & Company Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy; Team analysis
=
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Indonesia telah menyusun rencana pertumbuhan hijau yang dapat
menjamin pertumbuhan ekonomi berkelanjutan dengan jejak karbon yang
lebih rendah
Tiga propinsi telah merespon melalui
penyusunan rencana pertumbuhan
hijau bersama DNPI
Pada G20 Summit, President
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
menyampaikan komitmen target
penurunan emisi sebesar 26%
pada tahun 2020 sehingga
Indonesia akan menjadi negara
berkembang pertama yang
melakukannya
CO2
Mitigation
AdaptationEconomic
development
Insti-
tutional
enablers
Rencana pertumbuhan hijau
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Emisi Indonesia diperkirakan bertambah dari 1.72 menjadi 2.95 GtCO2e antara tahun 2000 dan 2020
Skenario Penurunan Emisi GRK 26%BAPPENAS
2,95
2,12
1,72
Em
isi
(Gto
nC
O2
e)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2000 2005 2020
Kehutanan dan Lahan Gambut
Limbah
Pertanian
Industri
Energi dan Transportasi
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Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 7
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Emisi di Indonesia diperkirakan meningkat dari 2.1 menjadi 3.3 GtCO2e
antara tahun 2005 dan 2030Proyeksi emisi1, Juta ton CO2e
850 970 1,050
370
810222
442
60
23
31
23
Transportasi
Listrik
LULUCF2
Gambut
Pertanian
Minyak & Gas
Semen
Bangunan
2030
3,260
590
151105
75 38
2020
2,534
650
143103
45
2005
2,052
760
110
12996
Share of global emissions
4.97% 5.07%
SUMBER: Kurva Biaya penurunan GRK Indonesia
1 Hanya meliputi emisi langsung dari tiap sektor
2 Emisi dari LULUCF berdasarkan pendekatan emisi bersih, yaitu termasuk absorpsi
5.0% 5.1%
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Carbon abatement opportunities have been prioritized
Do it now (potential to be realized by 2015)
Start slow, then accelerate (potential to be realized by 2020)
Develop now, capture over time (potential to be realized from
2015-2030)
SOURCE: DNPI Indonesia Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cost Curve; team analysis
Negative
(<0 USD/
ton)
Modest
(0 to 25
USD/ton)
High
(>25
USD/ton)
Cost
today
Readily achievable Some challenges Difficult
Feasibility to capture (in near-term)
120
▪ Water heating – commercial
buildings
▪ Reforestation – mineral soils
(99 Mt)
▪ Rice management – nutrient
management (4 Mt)
▪ Energy efficiency electronic
equipment and appliance in
residential and commercial
buildings (8 Mt)
▪ Small hydro (6 Mt)
▪ Cropland nutrient management
(3 Mt)
19 Mt
▪ Fire prevention (397 Mt)
▪ Sustainable Forest Management
(220 Mt)
▪ Peatland rehabilitation (220 Mt)
▪ REDD – timber plantation (185 Mt)
▪ Large hydro (28 Mt)
▪ Geothermal (27 Mt)
▪ Dedicated biomass (16 Mt)
▪ On shore wind (1 Mt)
▪ Rice management – shallow
flooding (20 Mt)
▪ Energy efficient passenger vehicles
(8 Mt)
▪ Energy efficient good carrier (6 Mt)
▪ Landfill gas electricity generation
(6Mt)
▪ Retrofit HVAC (2 Mt)
▪ Landfill gas direct use (2 Mt)
▪ Solar PV (3 Mt)
▪ Water heating – residential (2 Mt)
▪ Livestock – feed supplement (2 Mt)
▪ REDD – smallholder agriculture
(195 Mt)
▪ REDD – Estate crops (185 Mt)
▪ Recycling new waste (17 Mt)
▪ LED Lighting (3 Mt)
PRELIMINARY
103 Mt
0 Mt
50 Mt
1,230 Mt
18 Mt
21 Mt
390 Mt
7 Mt
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Potensi penurunan emisi kita cukup tinggi
955225
3,260
Emisi
lainnya
Lainya
56
Minyak
61
Transpor-
tasi
87
Pertanian
106
ListrikGambut
609
LULUCF
1,161
Total
pengurangan
Persentase
total
potensi
pengurang-
an
1 2 3 4 5
SUMBER: DNPI Indonesia GHG abatement cost curve
50 26 10 5 4 3
6
Proyeksi potensi pengurangan
Juta ton, CO2eIndonesia memiliki potensi
pengurangan sebesar total
2,305 MtCO2e, sekitar 70%
proyeks emisi BAU sebesar
3,260 MtCO2e di tahun 2030
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Outline
▪ Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa depan?
▪ Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah
Kaca (GRK)Indonesia
• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low Carbon
Growth Strategies, LCGS)
• Power by Example
o Green ICT
o Urban Resoration
o Pemetaan 100 Desa
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Time
Emis
sio
n r
ate
26%
15%
2020(Baseline)
2005(Baseyear)
Past trend
and current
emission
status
Future
emission
scenario (BAU)
Historical reference (HR)
Reference Level (RL)
Tradeable NAMAs
National Commitment to reduce the
emission 26 – 41% by 2020
MITIGATION POTENTIAL Commercially available
technology ;
Environmentally sound
policy and regulations
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Key Elements of Japan’s New Offset Mechanism
•Effective and Speedy Decision through Bilateral Processes•Public‐Private Initiative•Wider range of Technologies•Efficient and Flexible Process•Transparent “Additionality” concept•Building blocks towards global regime
Bilateral Arrangement
•Project and Accounting management•Distribution of Credits•Dispute Settlement
Government
of
JAPAN
GGovernment
of
Developing
Country
Offset Credit
Joint Projectsbusiness business
GHG Reduction
Clean Technologies
4
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Project Host country Main project entities Covered field
1 Highly efficient coal power plant
(Ultra super critical)
Indonesia The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Coal thermal power
2 Highly efficient coal power plant
(Ultra super critical)
Vietnam TEPCO /Marubeni Co, Coal thermal power
3 Highly efficient coal power plant
(Ultra super critical)
India Mizuho RI Coal thermal power
4 Reduce power transmission loss by using highly
efficient transformer
Vietnam Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Co.Co Ltd
Electric power grid
5 Introduction of energy efficient technologies at iron
and steel plant
Philippines JFE Steel Co. Iron and steel
6 Introduction of energy efficient technologies at iron
and steel plant
India Nippon Steel Co. Iron and steel
7 Introduction of energy efficient technologies at
cement plant
Laos/Myanmar Taiheiyo Engineering Co. Cement
8 Geothermal power
(new construction/rehabilitation)
Indonesia Mitsubishi Co. Renewable energy
9 Geothermal power
(rehabilitation)
Philippines Toshiba Co, Renewable energy
10 Eco‐friendly driving using digital tachograph Thailand Yazaki Co. Road transportation
11 Optimum controll off plantl equipment (b(by IT))
Indonesiad Yamatakek Co. Energy saving at factoryf
12 Optimum control of plant equipment (by IT) Thailand Yokogawa Elec Co. Energy saving at factory
13 Energygy savingg housingg (eco( ‐friendlyy house))
China Nomura RI Product CDM
14 REDD+ Indonesia Marubeni Co. REDD+
◆List of FS Projects on August 10 Total Budget in FY2010: 10 million USD
F/S for Bilateral Offset Mechanism in FY 2010(First)
5
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◆List of FS adopted on October 20, 2010 Total Budget in FY2010: 10 million USD
F/S for Bilateral Offset Mechanism in FY 2010(Second)
Project Host country Main project entities Covered field
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Introduction of Nuclear power
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage
Promotion high efficiency light and energysaving of home appliances
Promotion of Home appliances (air conditioner,refrigerator, Water heater, TV, lighjt)
Reducing N2O emission by using coatingfertilizer
Introduction of CHP facility and privately‐ownedelectrical power facility
Energy consumption reduction of airconditioners by using deep seawater
Vietnam
Indonesia
Mexico
Vietnam
Malaysia/Indonesia
Thailand
Maldives
TEPCO
Arabian Oil Co,
JRI (SMBC, Toshiba Co, Panasonic Co,)
Mitsubishi Co,
Jcam Agri Co,
Mizuho Co,
Hitachi Plant Technologies,
Nuclear power
CCS
Energy saving at house
Energy saving at house
Chemistry
Chemistry
Water provision
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Introduction of Digital Tachograph
Introduction of high efficiency motor system
Introduction of air‐conditioning control system
REDD+
REDD+
More efficient utilization of low grade coal inthe power plant
Introduction of energy efficient technologies atcement plant
Vietnam/Laos/Malaysia/China
China
Malaysia
Laos
Brazil
Indonesia
Indonesia
Nittsu Research Institute
Yasukawa Electric Co,
JRI(SMBC, Toshiba Co,)
Oji Paper Group
Kanematsu ltd,
Sojitz( Tsukishima Kikai Co,)
Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd,
Road transportation
Energy saving at factory
Energy saving at factory
REDD+
REDD+
Coal power
Cement
15Introduction of energy efficient technologies atcement plant
Malaysia Ube Industries, Cement 6
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Outline
▪ Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa depan?
▪ Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca
(GRK)Indonesia
• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low
Carbon Growth Strategies, LCGS)
• Power by Example
o Green ICT
o Urban Resoration
o Pemetaan 100 Desa
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Pengembangan Strategi Pembangunan Rendah Karbon
Kerangka Pengembangan Rencana
Mitigasi CO2
• Estimasi emisi saat ini dan masa datang
• Menelaah potensi dan kelayakan teknis
pengurangan emisi dan biaya implementasi
berbagai initiatif mitigasi
Pembangunan Ekonomi
• Analisis keunggulan dan kelemahan
kompetitif
• Menggali potensi sumber pertumbuhan baru
(rendah karbon)
Institutional enablers
• Mengembangkan strategi enablers kritis
(e.g., tata ruang, kepemilikan lahan, monev,
keterlibatan masyarakat, dll.)
• Menaksir biaya total untuk
mengimplementasikan berbagai peluang
Faktor2 Kunci
Mitigasi
CO2
Institutional
enablers
Pembangunan
Ekonomi
Rencana
LCGS
SUMBER: DNPI – Low carbon growth team; team analysis Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 17
Data “collation” dan
pembangunan konsensus
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18SUMBER: Indonesia GHG abatement cost curve
243 246 300
550
129
313
2,052
1,739
763
Total emisiSektor
lainnya
Total terkait
penggunaan
lahan
PertanianKebakaran
gambut
Dekomposisi
gambut
Absorpsi1DegradasiDeforestasi
-15%
85 persen dari emisi Indonesia tahun 2005 diakibatkan oleh
kegiatan-kegiatan terkait dengan penggunaan lahanEmisi terkait penggunaan lahan
Emisi dari sektor-sektor lainnya
Rincian emisi Indonesia berdasarkan
sumber utama
Juta ton CO2e
1 Termasuk absorpsi dari hutan-hutan terkelola dan perkebunan kayu
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Pengukuran 5 mitigasi teratas serta manfaat keekonomiannya
SUMBER: DNPI – Indonesia GHG abatement cost curve
▪ Rehabilitasi lahan gambut
▪ Penyiraman kembali lahan gambut
▪ Manajemen pengairan
Mengurangi
dekomposisi
gambut
3
250 MtCO2e
Deskripsi
Penguranan,
2030
Mengurangi deforestasi1
▪ Penggunaan lahan terdegradasi
▪ Meningkatkan produktivitas pertanian
▪ Terlibat dalam perdagangan karbon untuk memperoleh kesempatan
konservasi hutan
570 MtCO2e
Penghutanan
kembali5
▪ Penghutanan kembali dan konservasi “lahan yang cukup kritis” yang
telah rusak sebagian
150 MtCO2e
Manajemen
Kehutanan
berkelanjutan
4
▪ Mengurangi penebangan berdampak
▪ Manajemen silvikultural240 MtCO2e
▪ Melarang pembakaran sebagai sarana persiapan lahan
▪ Membentuk regu pemadam kebakaran
▪ Menjamin penegakan tegas dan penalti bagi pelanggaran hukumZero
Burning2
310 MtCO2e
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Strategi pertumbuhan karbon secara terperinci telah disusun
SUMBER: DNPI; Pemda Kaltim, Pemda Kalteng, Pemda Jambi
Rencana Pertumbuhan Rendah Karbon
Strategi pembangunan ekonomi
berkelanjutan
▪ Kelebihan dan kekurangan yang kompetitif
▪ Sumber pertumbuhan baru
Strategi-strategi sektor
▪ Peluang penurunan, proyek pilot, kebijakan
yang dibutuhkan
▪ Kelapa sawit, kehutanan, pertanuan,
batubara, minyak & gas
Strategi-strategi daerah
▪ Besarnya daerah dan penggunaan lahan
▪ Emisi dan potensi pengurangan
▪ GDP dan ketenagakerjaan
Implementasi dan enabler
▪ Rencana aksi mendetil
▪ Enabler penting yang dibutuhkan
▪ Perkiraan total biaya
Elemen-elemen Utama LCGS
Kaltim
Kalteng
Jambi
Indonesia
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Kalteng dan Jambi merupakan propinsi yang menjadi target
pengembangan pembangunan ekonomi rendah karbon
SUMBER: DNPI
Diusulkan untuk dikembangkan
LCGS yang sudah dikembangkan
Aceh
Sumatra
Utara
Riau
Kaltim
Kalbar
Papua
SulselLampung
JabarJateng
Bali
Jambi
Kalteng
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 21
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Outline
▪ Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa depan?
▪ Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca
(GRK)Indonesia
• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low Carbon
Growth Strategies, LCGS)
• “Power by Example”
o Green ICT
o Urban Resoration
o Pemetaan 100 Desa
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Dua peran penting intervensi ICT dalam Reengineering proses akan
berkontribusi secara signifikan dalam pengurangan emisi GRK: (1). Aksi
mitigasi diluar sektor ICT (2). Sektor ICT
Peran (1) Peran (2)
(1).Peran ICT dalam Intevensi aksi
mitigasi diluar sektor ICT:
• konsumsi material
• konsumsi energi dan listrik
• mobilitas orang, barang dan jasa
• efisiensi aktivitas
• efisiensi ruang penyimpanan
• limbah
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 23
Sumber: www.smart2020.org
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(2). Measuring, Reporting and Verification(MRV) untuk mendukung aksi
mitigasi dari Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF)
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 24
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(3). Sapporo Initiative: Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV)
Research and Technology• Integrated Indonesia Peatland Mapping Systems to support
REDD+ and MRV
• Thematic and Integrated Research on the ground
• Open-source based data and tools
• Japan-Indonesia Consortium
• Low carbon economy
• etc
Capacity Building:• Technology/instruments
• Modeling assessment
• Integrated initiatives on low-carbon economy, such as
Borneo Initiative
Networking:• International partnership on Indonesia’s Peatland Mapping
• Low carbon economy
• Data sharing
Global Negotiation Issues:• Leverage of peatland issues.
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 25
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(4). www.indonesiacarbonupdate.net
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 26
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(5). Green Campus and Urban Restoration (status Desember 2010)
Roadmap Development• Institutional Transformation• Low Carbon Economy strategic research on Green
Campus and Urban restoration• Community Engagement
“Proof of Concept”• Green Campus • Urban Restoration
Indonesia Carbon Update Network(ICU-Net)• Knowledge Warehouse on Green Campus and
Urban Restoration• Hub of DNPI-Geo-Design Forum on Climate Change• Hub of DNPI-Open Source Initiative
Join Publication• Policy Memo on (1). Green Campus (2). Urban
Restoration
.Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 27
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(4). Urban Restoration Program
Summary: Dialogue on Green Industry and Green Innovation (Bandung, 15 November 2010)
Green Process Innovation: From Linier Metabolism to Circular Metabolism
Indonesia Carbon Update Network (ICU-Net)Asia/Africa Carbon Update Network(AACU-Net)
Green Planning:Reengineering Ecological NetworkVertical DevelopmentCommunity Engagement
Public Participation and Rebranding CampaignGreen BrandingNew Urbanism
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 28
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PUSAIRLIPIGALERI
BUTIK
KASUM
SABUGABATAN
BONBIN
CIWALK
ITB
KAMPUNGKAMPUNG
KAMPUNG
KAMPUNG
PASUPATI
ITB
PASAR
PDAM
SALMAN
BS
Biodiversity in Bandung
Larger Vegetation Corridor
Core Area
Connectivity
Adopting Ecological Network Approach : Bandung City
Source: BPLHD Jabar, Bandung, 15 Nov.2010)
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Data Content
• Spatial dynamics, covering interactions among land
use and ecosystem that influence spatial changes.
• Wealth production systems, covering production
systems employed in the area as a result of
intensive interactions of technology and economic
factors. It may operate as internal interaction or may
be as a result of external influence.
• Institutional structures, covering factors that drive
land use change, such as government policy on
industry, tax and subsidy scheme for agriculture
development, etc.
• Social capital, covering social, economic and
institutional factors rooted in the community that
may influence individual or community behavior and
drive (de/re)forestation and land use change
processes.
Stakeholders: DNPI (GOI), UI, ITB, USU, Itenas,
Hokkaido University(Universitas), Geo-Eye, ESRI,
Waindo Spektra, INBIMA (Industri), IA-GD ITB,
Sabang Merauke Circle,, etc.
Inisiatif Pemetaan 100 Desa
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The Screenshots of Land Cover/Use Changes in Banyumas Region (1990-2007)
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Finding (2) Trend of Land Use Change Pattern
1990 1995 2000 2005 2007
Forest 17.70% 4.07% 2.53% 1.24% 1.24%
Mix Garden+Plantation 28.18% 38.79% 32.51% 24.92% 22.04%
Settlement 0.63% 13.90% 17.55% 20.23% 23.54%
Paddy Field 7.42% 23.27% 29.64% 43.12% 48.00%
Dryland Agriculture 24.09% 11.13% 7.32% 3.43% 1.00%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f th
e A
rea
(1). In the period of 1990-1995 deforestation is hugely occurred, and has converted more than 80% of forest area and is subsequently followed by land use exchange/shifting among different classes, mainly increasing of mix garden and plantation, settlement and paddy field areas. But, it is decreasing in dry land agriculture area.(2). From 1995 onward, the trend of mix garden and plantation and dry-land agriculture changes are steadily declining. However, settlement and paddy field are still continues to increase, reaching at 23.54% and 48% respectively in 2007 .(3). The rate of change of mix garden and plantation is lower than that of dry land agriculture where closed to the paddy field and settlement areas. This may indicates that land use changes in flat areas most likely occurred as a result of settlement and paddy field expansion. They may strong correlation between land uses, physical constraints as well as other factors/driving force
(economy, policy, market access, ownerships, etc.).
(4). It seems that since 2005 deforestation is likely to stop and reach stability.
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Job dummy
(Farmer = 1)
Demand for
community
management
Living location
(downstream = 1)
(middle stream = 2)
(upstream = 3)
Community efficacy
to sustainable
forest management
Perceived
seriousness of
deforestation
+
Causal Model of Demand for Community Forest Management
+
+
+
+
+
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Job dummy
(Farmer = 1)
Demand for
community
management
Living location
(downstream = 1)
(middle stream = 2)
(upstream = 3)
Community efficacy
to sustainable
forest management
Perceived
seriousness of
deforestation
0.289***
Result of Path analysis
0.112*
-0.169***
Significance probability
p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*
-0.058
0.192***
0.152***
0.205***
0.374***
-0.070
CFI=0.976
TLI=0.780
RMSEA=0.077
all sample
(N=502)
R-square=0.123
R-square=0.137
R-square=0.023R-square=0.087
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Job dummy
(Farmer = 1)
Demand for
community
management
Living location
(downstream = 1)
(middle stream = 2)
(upstream = 3)
Community efficacy
to sustainable
forest management
Perceived
seriousness of
deforestation
0.347***
0.181*
-0.418***
Significance probability
p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*
-0.029
0.174**
0.051
0.223**
0.311***
-0.150*
CFI=0.959
TLI=0.633
RMSEA=0.110
R-square=0.306
R-square=0.115
R-square=0.003R-square=0.083
Path Analysis in 2groups
Group: High government trust
(N=219)
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Job dummy
(Farmer = 1)
Demand for
community
management
Living location
(downstream = 1)
(middle stream = 2)
(upstream = 3)
Community efficacy
to sustainable
forest management
Perceived
seriousness of
deforestation
0.324***
0.147
-0.065
Significance probability
p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*
0.000
0.102
0.226***
0.244***
0.500***
-0.046
CFI=0.959
TLI=0.633
RMSEA=0.110
R-square=0.134
R-square=0.242
R-square=0.051R-square=0.081
Path Analysis in 2groups
Group: Low government trust
(N=234)
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Job dummy
(Farmer = 1)
Demand for
community
management
Living location
(downstream = 1)
(middle stream = 2)
(upstream = 3)
Community efficacy
to sustainable
forest management
Perceived
seriousness of
deforestation
0.312***
0.184**
-0.313***
Significance probability
p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*
-0.041
0.168**
0.102
0.262***
0.310***
-0.101
CFI=0.971
TLI=0.738
RMSEA=0.089
R-square=0.218
R-square=0.100
R-square=0.010R-square=0.105
Path Analysis in 2groups
Group: High community trust
(N=277)
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Job dummy
(Farmer = 1)
Demand for
community
management
Living location
(downstream = 1)
(middle stream = 2)
(upstream = 3)
Community efficacy
to sustainable
forest management
Perceived
seriousness of
deforestation
0.368***
0.086
-0.063
Significance probability
p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*
0.022
0.103
0.172*
0.192**
0.548***
-0.033
CFI=0.971
TLI=0.738
RMSEA=0.089
R-square=0.146
R-square=0.295
R-square=0.029R-square=0.058
Path Analysis in 2groups
Group: Low community trust
(N=176)
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What’s Next?
PENDEKATAN STRATEGIK
• Pengarusutamaan di tingkat nasional ?
• “Power by example” (national, sub-national, project, community)
• Intel Inside, Wall-mart Outside
• Lumbung Pengetahuan dan Jejaring (Knowledge Warehouse and Information
Networking)
• Reformasi Kurikulum – pengarusutamaan isu perubahan iklim pada kurikulum
pendidikan
BEST PRACTICES
• Global e-Sustainability Initiative (GeSi), www.gesi.org
• Cool IT, Greenpeace International, www.greenpeace.org
• Creative Change Education Solutions, www.creativechange.net
• Common Room Foundation, www.commonroom.info
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 39
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim |
TERIMAKASIH!!
In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but
the optimist has a better time on the trip (Daniel L.
Reardon)
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