Green Innovation tantangan dan peluangarmisusandi.com/kuliah/Farhan Helmy - Green...

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Green Innovation: tantangan dan peluang Farhan Helmy Mitigation Working Group [email protected] Kuliah Umum Bandung, 1 Maret 2011

Transcript of Green Innovation tantangan dan peluangarmisusandi.com/kuliah/Farhan Helmy - Green...

Page 1: Green Innovation tantangan dan peluangarmisusandi.com/kuliah/Farhan Helmy - Green Innovation.pdfGreen Innovation: tantangan dan peluang Farhan Helmy Mitigation Working Group farhan.helmy@dnpi.go.id

Green Innovation:

tantangan dan peluang

Farhan HelmyMitigation Working [email protected]

Kuliah UmumBandung, 1 Maret 2011

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1

Outline

▪ Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa

depan?

▪ Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca

(GRK)Indonesia

• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low Carbon

Growth Strategies, LCGS)

• Power by Example

o Green ICT

o Urban Resoration

o Pemetaan 100 Desa

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Interests :

strong state and corporations, weak society?

Management of Commons

[forestry, environment, knowledge, disaster]

potential of governments and market/private failures

Community based Social Innovation

[open source, digital contents, disaster management, 3R, etc.]

independent from government, strong network but limited scale!

Micro-trends as a result of Globalization and

the advancement of Information

and communication technologies

Society

We!!

Stock Taking 2011: Where do we stand?

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Visi masa depan?

• Peter Senge (2010), The Necessary Revolution: (1). There is no viable path forward that does not taking into account the future generations

(2). Institutions matters

(3). All real change is grounded in new ways of thinking and perceiption

• Anatole Kaletsky (2010), Capitalism 4.0: “…global capitalism will be replaced by nothing other than global capitalism. The traumatic events of 2007-2009 neither destroy or diminish the fundamental human urges that have always powered the systems –ambition, initiative, individualisms, the competitive spirit. These natural human qualities will be instead be redirected and reenergized to create a new version of capitalism that will ultimately be even more successful and productive than the system it replaced

• Thomas L. Friedman(2010), Hot, Flat and Crowded

• Rhenald Kasali (2011), The Cracking Zone

• Don Tapscot (2010), Macro Wikinomics: Rebooting Bussiness and the World

• etc.

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Gambut Indonesia

1.5 GtCO2e

Sumbangan emisi Indonesia signifikan secara global

~

Transportasi Udara dan Laut Global

1.8 GtCO2e

Indonesia total

2.8 GtCO2e

Inggris, Perancis, Itali, Jerman (gabungan)

2.71 GtCO2e

Emisi 2005 CO2e

1 2.7 = 0.6 (UK) + 0.5 (France) + 0.6 (Italy) + 1.0 (Germany)

SOURCE: McKinsey & Company Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy; Team analysis

=

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Indonesia telah menyusun rencana pertumbuhan hijau yang dapat

menjamin pertumbuhan ekonomi berkelanjutan dengan jejak karbon yang

lebih rendah

Tiga propinsi telah merespon melalui

penyusunan rencana pertumbuhan

hijau bersama DNPI

Pada G20 Summit, President

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono

menyampaikan komitmen target

penurunan emisi sebesar 26%

pada tahun 2020 sehingga

Indonesia akan menjadi negara

berkembang pertama yang

melakukannya

CO2

Mitigation

AdaptationEconomic

development

Insti-

tutional

enablers

Rencana pertumbuhan hijau

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Emisi Indonesia diperkirakan bertambah dari 1.72 menjadi 2.95 GtCO2e antara tahun 2000 dan 2020

Skenario Penurunan Emisi GRK 26%BAPPENAS

2,95

2,12

1,72

Em

isi

(Gto

nC

O2

e)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2000 2005 2020

Kehutanan dan Lahan Gambut

Limbah

Pertanian

Industri

Energi dan Transportasi

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Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 7

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Emisi di Indonesia diperkirakan meningkat dari 2.1 menjadi 3.3 GtCO2e

antara tahun 2005 dan 2030Proyeksi emisi1, Juta ton CO2e

850 970 1,050

370

810222

442

60

23

31

23

Transportasi

Listrik

LULUCF2

Gambut

Pertanian

Minyak & Gas

Semen

Bangunan

2030

3,260

590

151105

75 38

2020

2,534

650

143103

45

2005

2,052

760

110

12996

Share of global emissions

4.97% 5.07%

SUMBER: Kurva Biaya penurunan GRK Indonesia

1 Hanya meliputi emisi langsung dari tiap sektor

2 Emisi dari LULUCF berdasarkan pendekatan emisi bersih, yaitu termasuk absorpsi

5.0% 5.1%

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Carbon abatement opportunities have been prioritized

Do it now (potential to be realized by 2015)

Start slow, then accelerate (potential to be realized by 2020)

Develop now, capture over time (potential to be realized from

2015-2030)

SOURCE: DNPI Indonesia Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cost Curve; team analysis

Negative

(<0 USD/

ton)

Modest

(0 to 25

USD/ton)

High

(>25

USD/ton)

Cost

today

Readily achievable Some challenges Difficult

Feasibility to capture (in near-term)

120

▪ Water heating – commercial

buildings

▪ Reforestation – mineral soils

(99 Mt)

▪ Rice management – nutrient

management (4 Mt)

▪ Energy efficiency electronic

equipment and appliance in

residential and commercial

buildings (8 Mt)

▪ Small hydro (6 Mt)

▪ Cropland nutrient management

(3 Mt)

19 Mt

▪ Fire prevention (397 Mt)

▪ Sustainable Forest Management

(220 Mt)

▪ Peatland rehabilitation (220 Mt)

▪ REDD – timber plantation (185 Mt)

▪ Large hydro (28 Mt)

▪ Geothermal (27 Mt)

▪ Dedicated biomass (16 Mt)

▪ On shore wind (1 Mt)

▪ Rice management – shallow

flooding (20 Mt)

▪ Energy efficient passenger vehicles

(8 Mt)

▪ Energy efficient good carrier (6 Mt)

▪ Landfill gas electricity generation

(6Mt)

▪ Retrofit HVAC (2 Mt)

▪ Landfill gas direct use (2 Mt)

▪ Solar PV (3 Mt)

▪ Water heating – residential (2 Mt)

▪ Livestock – feed supplement (2 Mt)

▪ REDD – smallholder agriculture

(195 Mt)

▪ REDD – Estate crops (185 Mt)

▪ Recycling new waste (17 Mt)

▪ LED Lighting (3 Mt)

PRELIMINARY

103 Mt

0 Mt

50 Mt

1,230 Mt

18 Mt

21 Mt

390 Mt

7 Mt

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Potensi penurunan emisi kita cukup tinggi

955225

3,260

Emisi

lainnya

Lainya

56

Minyak

61

Transpor-

tasi

87

Pertanian

106

ListrikGambut

609

LULUCF

1,161

Total

pengurangan

Persentase

total

potensi

pengurang-

an

1 2 3 4 5

SUMBER: DNPI Indonesia GHG abatement cost curve

50 26 10 5 4 3

6

Proyeksi potensi pengurangan

Juta ton, CO2eIndonesia memiliki potensi

pengurangan sebesar total

2,305 MtCO2e, sekitar 70%

proyeks emisi BAU sebesar

3,260 MtCO2e di tahun 2030

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Outline

▪ Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa depan?

▪ Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah

Kaca (GRK)Indonesia

• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low Carbon

Growth Strategies, LCGS)

• Power by Example

o Green ICT

o Urban Resoration

o Pemetaan 100 Desa

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Time

Emis

sio

n r

ate

26%

15%

2020(Baseline)

2005(Baseyear)

Past trend

and current

emission

status

Future

emission

scenario (BAU)

Historical reference (HR)

Reference Level (RL)

Tradeable NAMAs

National Commitment to reduce the

emission 26 – 41% by 2020

MITIGATION POTENTIAL Commercially available

technology ;

Environmentally sound

policy and regulations

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Key Elements of Japan’s New Offset Mechanism

•Effective and Speedy Decision through Bilateral Processes•Public‐Private Initiative•Wider range of Technologies•Efficient and Flexible Process•Transparent “Additionality” concept•Building blocks towards global regime

Bilateral Arrangement

•Project and Accounting management•Distribution of Credits•Dispute Settlement

Government

of

JAPAN

GGovernment

of

Developing

Country

Offset Credit

Joint Projectsbusiness business

GHG Reduction

Clean Technologies

4

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Project Host country Main project entities Covered field

1 Highly efficient coal power plant

(Ultra super critical)

Indonesia The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Coal thermal power

2 Highly efficient coal power plant

(Ultra super critical)

Vietnam TEPCO /Marubeni Co, Coal thermal power

3 Highly efficient coal power plant

(Ultra super critical)

India Mizuho RI Coal thermal power

4 Reduce power transmission loss by using highly

efficient transformer

Vietnam Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Co.Co Ltd

Electric power grid

5 Introduction of energy efficient technologies at iron

and steel plant

Philippines JFE Steel Co. Iron and steel

6 Introduction of energy efficient technologies at iron

and steel plant

India Nippon Steel Co. Iron and steel

7 Introduction of energy efficient technologies at

cement plant

Laos/Myanmar Taiheiyo Engineering Co. Cement

8 Geothermal power

(new construction/rehabilitation)

Indonesia Mitsubishi Co. Renewable energy

9 Geothermal power

(rehabilitation)

Philippines Toshiba Co, Renewable energy

10 Eco‐friendly driving using digital tachograph Thailand Yazaki Co. Road transportation

11 Optimum controll off plantl equipment (b(by IT))

Indonesiad Yamatakek Co. Energy saving at factoryf

12 Optimum control of plant equipment (by IT) Thailand Yokogawa Elec Co. Energy saving at factory

13 Energygy savingg housingg (eco( ‐friendlyy house))

China Nomura RI Product CDM

14 REDD+ Indonesia Marubeni Co. REDD+

◆List of FS Projects on August 10 Total Budget in FY2010: 10 million USD

F/S for Bilateral Offset Mechanism in FY 2010(First)

5

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◆List of FS adopted on October 20, 2010 Total Budget in FY2010: 10 million USD

F/S for Bilateral Offset Mechanism in FY 2010(Second)

Project Host country Main project entities Covered field

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Introduction of Nuclear power

Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage

Promotion high efficiency light and energysaving of home appliances

Promotion of Home appliances (air conditioner,refrigerator, Water heater, TV, lighjt)

Reducing N2O emission by using coatingfertilizer

Introduction of CHP facility and privately‐ownedelectrical power facility

Energy consumption reduction of airconditioners by using deep seawater

Vietnam

Indonesia

Mexico

Vietnam

Malaysia/Indonesia

Thailand

Maldives

TEPCO

Arabian Oil Co,

JRI (SMBC, Toshiba Co, Panasonic Co,)

Mitsubishi Co,

Jcam Agri Co,

Mizuho Co,

Hitachi Plant Technologies,

Nuclear power

CCS

Energy saving at house

Energy saving at house

Chemistry

Chemistry

Water provision

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Introduction of Digital Tachograph

Introduction of high efficiency motor system

Introduction of air‐conditioning control system

REDD+

REDD+

More efficient utilization of low grade coal inthe power plant

Introduction of energy efficient technologies atcement plant

Vietnam/Laos/Malaysia/China

China

Malaysia

Laos

Brazil

Indonesia

Indonesia

Nittsu Research Institute

Yasukawa Electric Co,

JRI(SMBC, Toshiba Co,)

Oji Paper Group

Kanematsu ltd,

Sojitz( Tsukishima Kikai Co,)

Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd,

Road transportation

Energy saving at factory

Energy saving at factory

REDD+

REDD+

Coal power

Cement

15Introduction of energy efficient technologies atcement plant

Malaysia Ube Industries, Cement 6

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Outline

▪ Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa depan?

▪ Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca

(GRK)Indonesia

• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low

Carbon Growth Strategies, LCGS)

• Power by Example

o Green ICT

o Urban Resoration

o Pemetaan 100 Desa

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Pengembangan Strategi Pembangunan Rendah Karbon

Kerangka Pengembangan Rencana

Mitigasi CO2

• Estimasi emisi saat ini dan masa datang

• Menelaah potensi dan kelayakan teknis

pengurangan emisi dan biaya implementasi

berbagai initiatif mitigasi

Pembangunan Ekonomi

• Analisis keunggulan dan kelemahan

kompetitif

• Menggali potensi sumber pertumbuhan baru

(rendah karbon)

Institutional enablers

• Mengembangkan strategi enablers kritis

(e.g., tata ruang, kepemilikan lahan, monev,

keterlibatan masyarakat, dll.)

• Menaksir biaya total untuk

mengimplementasikan berbagai peluang

Faktor2 Kunci

Mitigasi

CO2

Institutional

enablers

Pembangunan

Ekonomi

Rencana

LCGS

SUMBER: DNPI – Low carbon growth team; team analysis Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 17

Data “collation” dan

pembangunan konsensus

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18SUMBER: Indonesia GHG abatement cost curve

243 246 300

550

129

313

2,052

1,739

763

Total emisiSektor

lainnya

Total terkait

penggunaan

lahan

PertanianKebakaran

gambut

Dekomposisi

gambut

Absorpsi1DegradasiDeforestasi

-15%

85 persen dari emisi Indonesia tahun 2005 diakibatkan oleh

kegiatan-kegiatan terkait dengan penggunaan lahanEmisi terkait penggunaan lahan

Emisi dari sektor-sektor lainnya

Rincian emisi Indonesia berdasarkan

sumber utama

Juta ton CO2e

1 Termasuk absorpsi dari hutan-hutan terkelola dan perkebunan kayu

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Pengukuran 5 mitigasi teratas serta manfaat keekonomiannya

SUMBER: DNPI – Indonesia GHG abatement cost curve

▪ Rehabilitasi lahan gambut

▪ Penyiraman kembali lahan gambut

▪ Manajemen pengairan

Mengurangi

dekomposisi

gambut

3

250 MtCO2e

Deskripsi

Penguranan,

2030

Mengurangi deforestasi1

▪ Penggunaan lahan terdegradasi

▪ Meningkatkan produktivitas pertanian

▪ Terlibat dalam perdagangan karbon untuk memperoleh kesempatan

konservasi hutan

570 MtCO2e

Penghutanan

kembali5

▪ Penghutanan kembali dan konservasi “lahan yang cukup kritis” yang

telah rusak sebagian

150 MtCO2e

Manajemen

Kehutanan

berkelanjutan

4

▪ Mengurangi penebangan berdampak

▪ Manajemen silvikultural240 MtCO2e

▪ Melarang pembakaran sebagai sarana persiapan lahan

▪ Membentuk regu pemadam kebakaran

▪ Menjamin penegakan tegas dan penalti bagi pelanggaran hukumZero

Burning2

310 MtCO2e

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Strategi pertumbuhan karbon secara terperinci telah disusun

SUMBER: DNPI; Pemda Kaltim, Pemda Kalteng, Pemda Jambi

Rencana Pertumbuhan Rendah Karbon

Strategi pembangunan ekonomi

berkelanjutan

▪ Kelebihan dan kekurangan yang kompetitif

▪ Sumber pertumbuhan baru

Strategi-strategi sektor

▪ Peluang penurunan, proyek pilot, kebijakan

yang dibutuhkan

▪ Kelapa sawit, kehutanan, pertanuan,

batubara, minyak & gas

Strategi-strategi daerah

▪ Besarnya daerah dan penggunaan lahan

▪ Emisi dan potensi pengurangan

▪ GDP dan ketenagakerjaan

Implementasi dan enabler

▪ Rencana aksi mendetil

▪ Enabler penting yang dibutuhkan

▪ Perkiraan total biaya

Elemen-elemen Utama LCGS

Kaltim

Kalteng

Jambi

Indonesia

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Kalteng dan Jambi merupakan propinsi yang menjadi target

pengembangan pembangunan ekonomi rendah karbon

SUMBER: DNPI

Diusulkan untuk dikembangkan

LCGS yang sudah dikembangkan

Aceh

Sumatra

Utara

Riau

Kaltim

Kalbar

Papua

SulselLampung

JabarJateng

Bali

Jambi

Kalteng

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Outline

▪ Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa depan?

▪ Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca

(GRK)Indonesia

• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low Carbon

Growth Strategies, LCGS)

• “Power by Example”

o Green ICT

o Urban Resoration

o Pemetaan 100 Desa

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Dua peran penting intervensi ICT dalam Reengineering proses akan

berkontribusi secara signifikan dalam pengurangan emisi GRK: (1). Aksi

mitigasi diluar sektor ICT (2). Sektor ICT

Peran (1) Peran (2)

(1).Peran ICT dalam Intevensi aksi

mitigasi diluar sektor ICT:

• konsumsi material

• konsumsi energi dan listrik

• mobilitas orang, barang dan jasa

• efisiensi aktivitas

• efisiensi ruang penyimpanan

• limbah

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Sumber: www.smart2020.org

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(2). Measuring, Reporting and Verification(MRV) untuk mendukung aksi

mitigasi dari Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF)

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(3). Sapporo Initiative: Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV)

Research and Technology• Integrated Indonesia Peatland Mapping Systems to support

REDD+ and MRV

• Thematic and Integrated Research on the ground

• Open-source based data and tools

• Japan-Indonesia Consortium

• Low carbon economy

• etc

Capacity Building:• Technology/instruments

• Modeling assessment

• Integrated initiatives on low-carbon economy, such as

Borneo Initiative

Networking:• International partnership on Indonesia’s Peatland Mapping

• Low carbon economy

• Data sharing

Global Negotiation Issues:• Leverage of peatland issues.

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(4). www.indonesiacarbonupdate.net

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(5). Green Campus and Urban Restoration (status Desember 2010)

Roadmap Development• Institutional Transformation• Low Carbon Economy strategic research on Green

Campus and Urban restoration• Community Engagement

“Proof of Concept”• Green Campus • Urban Restoration

Indonesia Carbon Update Network(ICU-Net)• Knowledge Warehouse on Green Campus and

Urban Restoration• Hub of DNPI-Geo-Design Forum on Climate Change• Hub of DNPI-Open Source Initiative

Join Publication• Policy Memo on (1). Green Campus (2). Urban

Restoration

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(4). Urban Restoration Program

Summary: Dialogue on Green Industry and Green Innovation (Bandung, 15 November 2010)

Green Process Innovation: From Linier Metabolism to Circular Metabolism

Indonesia Carbon Update Network (ICU-Net)Asia/Africa Carbon Update Network(AACU-Net)

Green Planning:Reengineering Ecological NetworkVertical DevelopmentCommunity Engagement

Public Participation and Rebranding CampaignGreen BrandingNew Urbanism

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PUSAIRLIPIGALERI

BUTIK

KASUM

SABUGABATAN

BONBIN

CIWALK

ITB

KAMPUNGKAMPUNG

KAMPUNG

KAMPUNG

PASUPATI

ITB

PASAR

PDAM

SALMAN

BS

Biodiversity in Bandung

Larger Vegetation Corridor

Core Area

Connectivity

Adopting Ecological Network Approach : Bandung City

Source: BPLHD Jabar, Bandung, 15 Nov.2010)

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Data Content

• Spatial dynamics, covering interactions among land

use and ecosystem that influence spatial changes.

• Wealth production systems, covering production

systems employed in the area as a result of

intensive interactions of technology and economic

factors. It may operate as internal interaction or may

be as a result of external influence.

• Institutional structures, covering factors that drive

land use change, such as government policy on

industry, tax and subsidy scheme for agriculture

development, etc.

• Social capital, covering social, economic and

institutional factors rooted in the community that

may influence individual or community behavior and

drive (de/re)forestation and land use change

processes.

Stakeholders: DNPI (GOI), UI, ITB, USU, Itenas,

Hokkaido University(Universitas), Geo-Eye, ESRI,

Waindo Spektra, INBIMA (Industri), IA-GD ITB,

Sabang Merauke Circle,, etc.

Inisiatif Pemetaan 100 Desa

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The Screenshots of Land Cover/Use Changes in Banyumas Region (1990-2007)

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Finding (2) Trend of Land Use Change Pattern

1990 1995 2000 2005 2007

Forest 17.70% 4.07% 2.53% 1.24% 1.24%

Mix Garden+Plantation 28.18% 38.79% 32.51% 24.92% 22.04%

Settlement 0.63% 13.90% 17.55% 20.23% 23.54%

Paddy Field 7.42% 23.27% 29.64% 43.12% 48.00%

Dryland Agriculture 24.09% 11.13% 7.32% 3.43% 1.00%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f th

e A

rea

(1). In the period of 1990-1995 deforestation is hugely occurred, and has converted more than 80% of forest area and is subsequently followed by land use exchange/shifting among different classes, mainly increasing of mix garden and plantation, settlement and paddy field areas. But, it is decreasing in dry land agriculture area.(2). From 1995 onward, the trend of mix garden and plantation and dry-land agriculture changes are steadily declining. However, settlement and paddy field are still continues to increase, reaching at 23.54% and 48% respectively in 2007 .(3). The rate of change of mix garden and plantation is lower than that of dry land agriculture where closed to the paddy field and settlement areas. This may indicates that land use changes in flat areas most likely occurred as a result of settlement and paddy field expansion. They may strong correlation between land uses, physical constraints as well as other factors/driving force

(economy, policy, market access, ownerships, etc.).

(4). It seems that since 2005 deforestation is likely to stop and reach stability.

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Job dummy

(Farmer = 1)

Demand for

community

management

Living location

(downstream = 1)

(middle stream = 2)

(upstream = 3)

Community efficacy

to sustainable

forest management

Perceived

seriousness of

deforestation

+

Causal Model of Demand for Community Forest Management

+

+

+

+

+

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Job dummy

(Farmer = 1)

Demand for

community

management

Living location

(downstream = 1)

(middle stream = 2)

(upstream = 3)

Community efficacy

to sustainable

forest management

Perceived

seriousness of

deforestation

0.289***

Result of Path analysis

0.112*

-0.169***

Significance probability

p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*

-0.058

0.192***

0.152***

0.205***

0.374***

-0.070

CFI=0.976

TLI=0.780

RMSEA=0.077

all sample

(N=502)

R-square=0.123

R-square=0.137

R-square=0.023R-square=0.087

Page 36: Green Innovation tantangan dan peluangarmisusandi.com/kuliah/Farhan Helmy - Green Innovation.pdfGreen Innovation: tantangan dan peluang Farhan Helmy Mitigation Working Group farhan.helmy@dnpi.go.id

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Job dummy

(Farmer = 1)

Demand for

community

management

Living location

(downstream = 1)

(middle stream = 2)

(upstream = 3)

Community efficacy

to sustainable

forest management

Perceived

seriousness of

deforestation

0.347***

0.181*

-0.418***

Significance probability

p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*

-0.029

0.174**

0.051

0.223**

0.311***

-0.150*

CFI=0.959

TLI=0.633

RMSEA=0.110

R-square=0.306

R-square=0.115

R-square=0.003R-square=0.083

Path Analysis in 2groups

Group: High government trust

(N=219)

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Job dummy

(Farmer = 1)

Demand for

community

management

Living location

(downstream = 1)

(middle stream = 2)

(upstream = 3)

Community efficacy

to sustainable

forest management

Perceived

seriousness of

deforestation

0.324***

0.147

-0.065

Significance probability

p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*

0.000

0.102

0.226***

0.244***

0.500***

-0.046

CFI=0.959

TLI=0.633

RMSEA=0.110

R-square=0.134

R-square=0.242

R-square=0.051R-square=0.081

Path Analysis in 2groups

Group: Low government trust

(N=234)

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Job dummy

(Farmer = 1)

Demand for

community

management

Living location

(downstream = 1)

(middle stream = 2)

(upstream = 3)

Community efficacy

to sustainable

forest management

Perceived

seriousness of

deforestation

0.312***

0.184**

-0.313***

Significance probability

p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*

-0.041

0.168**

0.102

0.262***

0.310***

-0.101

CFI=0.971

TLI=0.738

RMSEA=0.089

R-square=0.218

R-square=0.100

R-square=0.010R-square=0.105

Path Analysis in 2groups

Group: High community trust

(N=277)

Page 39: Green Innovation tantangan dan peluangarmisusandi.com/kuliah/Farhan Helmy - Green Innovation.pdfGreen Innovation: tantangan dan peluang Farhan Helmy Mitigation Working Group farhan.helmy@dnpi.go.id

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Job dummy

(Farmer = 1)

Demand for

community

management

Living location

(downstream = 1)

(middle stream = 2)

(upstream = 3)

Community efficacy

to sustainable

forest management

Perceived

seriousness of

deforestation

0.368***

0.086

-0.063

Significance probability

p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*

0.022

0.103

0.172*

0.192**

0.548***

-0.033

CFI=0.971

TLI=0.738

RMSEA=0.089

R-square=0.146

R-square=0.295

R-square=0.029R-square=0.058

Path Analysis in 2groups

Group: Low community trust

(N=176)

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What’s Next?

PENDEKATAN STRATEGIK

• Pengarusutamaan di tingkat nasional ?

• “Power by example” (national, sub-national, project, community)

• Intel Inside, Wall-mart Outside

• Lumbung Pengetahuan dan Jejaring (Knowledge Warehouse and Information

Networking)

• Reformasi Kurikulum – pengarusutamaan isu perubahan iklim pada kurikulum

pendidikan

BEST PRACTICES

• Global e-Sustainability Initiative (GeSi), www.gesi.org

• Cool IT, Greenpeace International, www.greenpeace.org

• Creative Change Education Solutions, www.creativechange.net

• Common Room Foundation, www.commonroom.info

Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 39

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Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim |

TERIMAKASIH!!

In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but

the optimist has a better time on the trip (Daniel L.

Reardon)

40