Great Lakes Climate Global Warming Presentation
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Transcript of Great Lakes Climate Global Warming Presentation
Confronting gClimate Change in the Great
k iLakes Region
3rd Annual Great Lakes ConferenceHealing our Waters Great Lakes CoalitionHealing our Waters Great Lakes Coalition
Chicago, ILSeptember 6, 2007
Don ScaviaUniversity of Michigan
School of Natural Resources and EnvironmentMichigan Sea Grant
Today’s OutlineToday s Outline
Cli t i l d h iClimate is already changing
… and interacting with other stressesg
We are seeing impacts our region
… expect more
Are we preparing for them?Are we preparing for them?
(setting aside emission controls for today)
The Big PictureThe Big PictureThe Big PictureThe Big Picture
Measured global surface temperature since 1880
G b h 95%Green bars show 95% confidence intervals
J. Hansen et al. 2006)
Models and Observation agree: the planet is warmingthe planet is warming
Models match observed ∆T on all continents co t e ts
IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM, 2007
Human Influences on Climate:3 Key Greenhouse Gases3 ey G ee ouse Gases
IPCC 2001, Summary for Policy Makers
Increasing Confidence
IPCC 1990: The observed increase [in temperatures] could b l l d t t l i bilit lt ti l thi be largely due to natural variability; alternatively this variability and other man-made factors could have offset a still larger man-made greenhouse warming.
IPCC 1995: The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.
IPCC 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is due to human activities.human activities.
IPCC 2007: Most of the observed increase in global temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
The Globe is Warming …g
What about the Great Lakes Region?Lakes Region?
Great Lakes RegionGreat Lakes Region
Temps are rising, especially in winter
Winters are shorterWinters are shorter
Spring comes earlierp g
Shorter duration of ice cover
Extreme rainfall events more frequent
Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones US: 1990 2006US: 1990 - 2006
Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones Great Lakes: 1990 2006Great Lakes: 1990 - 2006
1990 -40 to-30 ºF
2006
30 to 20 ºF
-40 to -30 ºF -30 to -20 ºF
-30 to -20 ºF
-20 to -10 ºF
-20 to -10 ºF -5 to -10 ºF
Average Minimum Temperatures
Great Lakes Growing Seasons
Lakes and Rivers are
1 Nov
1 DFreezing later, and Thawing
1 Dec
1 JanThawing Earlier
Freeze
1 Feb
1 Mar
Breakup1 Apr
1 May
Modified from Magnuson et al. 2000
1840 1880 1920 1960 20001 Jun
Grand Traverse Bay
1 Nov
1 DWinter Freeze and Breakup
Dates
1 Dec
1 JanDatesFreeze
1 Feb
1 Mar
Breakup1 Apr
1 May
Modified from Magnuson et al. 2000
1840 1880 1920 1960 20001 Jun
The Big Lakes too!
Lake Lake er
OntarioHuron
Co
ve
1972 20071972 2007Ice C
Lake Erie
Lake Michigan
1972 20071972 2007
en
t I
Perc
e
1972 2007 1972 2007
P
More frequent extreme RAIN
Wh Where are we heading? heading?
Global Scale
T changes for 2x CO2
Computer simulations of expected warmingexpected warming
Business as Usual is heading us to a
T changes for 4x CO2
is heading us to a 4X CO2 world
Predicted Global Temperatures
7.2°F
3.2°F
IPCC 2007
Wh Where are we heading? heading?
Great Lakes Region
Projected Climate Changes in the Great Lakes Region by 2100
Temperature
Great Lakes Region by 2100
TemperatureGenerally Warmer (esp. in winter)Extreme heat more commonGrowing season several weeks longerIce cover decline will continue
PrecipitationWi t i i iWinter, spring increasingSummer, fall decreasing
i il d hDrier soils, more droughtsMore extreme events
Climate Warming will Impact the Future Weather we “Feel”
Forecast Great Lakes Growing Seasons
Projected Great Lakes Precipitation ChangesChanges
2X heavy rain events2X heavy rain events
Seasonal shifts: Seasonal shifts:
More rain winter/spring
Less rain summer/fall
Projected Impacts
Great Lakes Region Great Lakes Region
The Changing Character of Great Lakes Lakes Streams & FishLakes Lakes, Streams, & Fish
• Cold-water fish will decline, cool- & warm-water species
hmove north
• Ecosystem disruptions• Ecosystem disruptionscompounded by invasionsof non-native species
• Summer lake stratification will increase more dead-will increase, more deadzones and fish kills
“Dead Zones” & Fish Kills ’ b k& Fish Kills will increase in shallower
i
It’s back!
regions.
??
The Changing Character of Great Lakes Forests & WildlifeLakes Forests & Wildlife
Boreal forests likely to disappear
Short-term forest productivity could increase
Higher ozone, droughts, fires, insects could damage long-term forest health
Birds breed more and earlier
Raccoons, skunks, andmay benefit
Moose likely to suffer
Northern movement of B lti
Today
Baltimore Oriole habitat
2X CO2
The Changing Character of Great Lakes Recreation & TourismLakes Recreation & Tourism
Significant impacts on lti billi $ i d tmulti-billion $ industry
Millions of anglers affected by fish impacts
Bird-watchers and hunters affected
Summer season expanded, but more extreme heatbut more extreme heat,heavy downpours
Winter recreationWinter recreationhard hit
Winter is a part of our “Sense of Place”.
We are losing Winter as we once knew it.
… John Magnuson
Climate Change Impacts Will ONot Occur in a Vacuum
Population is growingUrbanization and sprawlSocial challenges
Pollution of air & waterLandscape fragmentation
The Changing Character of Great Lakes Wetlands & Shorebirds
Earlier spring runoff, flooding, lower water levels tough on wetland species
Lower flood-absorbing capacity
Fewer breeding sites for amphibians Fewer breeding sites for amphibians, shorebirds and waterfowl
Sh i ki tl d h bit t d i f Shrinking wetland habitat, drying of prairie potholes
Changing water levels AND regulation
Strong regulationStrong regulation
Natural fluctuation
Exacerbation of Existing ProblemsWater Resources
Reduced groundwater recharge, small streams likely to dry up
Lake levels expected todecline
Pressure to increase water extraction from the Great Lakesextraction from the Great Lakes
Why are lake levels so low?
Precipitation is normal!Precipitation is normal!
Warmer Winters/Less Ice:More Evaporationp
over
Ice C
oce
nt
IP
erc
1972 2007
Future Lake Michigan Levels
+1.0
m)
+1.3 ft
Level
(m
0.0
Wate
r L
Model R
-1.0
Mean
W Range
2090 = Lofgren et al. 2002
- 4.6 ft
An
nu
al
-2.01900 1950 2000
2090 = Lofgren et al.
A
Exacerbation of Existing ProblemsP t & I f t tProperty & Infrastructure
More frequent extreme storms and floods More frequent extreme storms and floods - greater property damage- burden on emergency managementbu de o e e ge cy a age e t- increased clean-up and rebuilding- financial toll on businesses and homeowners
Lower lake levels - shipping-related adjustments- more dredging needed
Exacerbation of Existing Problems H H lthHuman Health
Cold-related health problemspdecline, while heat-relatedmortality will increase > 90oF
Extreme heat more likely>40 days >90°F >40 days >90>25 days >97°F
> 97oF
Waterborne and other infectious diseases may become more diseases may become more frequent or widespread
Summer Heat-Related Mortality for Current, 2020, and 2050 ClimateCurrent, 2020, and 2050 Climate
Current20202050
150200
250
250
0 Montreal0
50100
150
50100
150200
Note: Does not include winter mortality. Assumes no acclimatization to changed climate. Does not account for population growth.
Source: WHO, 1996
GFDL Climate Change Scenario
Toronto
Worst Impacts Are Not InevitableNo-regrets solutions available now
A three-pronged approach:
Reduce our emissions
Minimize other pressures on the environment
Plan and prepare to manage impacts
Minimizing OTHER Pressures O E ion Our Environment
• Air Quality Improvements
• Water Resource Protection
• Habitat Protection• Habitat Protection
• Urban and Land Use Planning
Prescription for Great Lakes Ecosystem Protection and Restoration
Avoiding the Tipping Point of Irreversible Changes
Interacting stresses matter
We’re approaching a tipping pointOver fishing
Nutrient Loading
Toxic Ch i l Cli t
We know enough to act now
O e s g Chemicals Climate changeClimate
Change!We know enough to act nowLand Use
g
Restore R ili !Hydrologic
AlterationsInvasive Species
Resiliency!
Take Home MMessages:
• Climate change is changing the character of the Great Lakes region
• Climate change will continue to magnify g g yexisting health and environmental problems
• Common sense solutions/adaptations are available now -- IF WE PREPARE FOR THEM
Managing Climate Impacts
• Emergency PreparednessBut, are “we” • Agricultural and Forestry
Adaptationspreparing?
Adaptations
• Public Health ImprovementsGovernments?• Public Health Improvements
• Infrastructure Adjustments
Governments?
Industries?• Infrastructure Adjustments
• EducationCitizens?• Education
Confronting gClimate Change in the Great
k iLakes Region
Are we prepared?Are we prepared?
Are we preparing?Are we preparing?