Grant-Writing Boot Camp © 2015 A.G. Williams Grant-Writing Boot Camp DAY ONE.
Grant Williams Duck Test
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Things that make you go Duck Test Grant Williams www.ttmygh.com
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Grant Williams Duck Test
Transcript of Grant Williams Duck Test
Things that make you go
Duck TestGrant Williams
www.ttmygh.com
Source: St. Louis Fed
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
US GDP vs Total Credit Instruments1949 - 2014Recession
Source: Bloomberg
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
S
H S
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
S&P5002011 - 2016
Source: Bloomberg
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
1750
1850
SH
S
MSCI World Index2011 - 2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bloomberg
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany Dax Index2000 - 2016
20165000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20122011 2013 2014 2015 2016
Central Bank Total AssetsFed/BoJ/SNB/BoE/ECB/PBoC
2006 - 2016
QE3 Ends
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
70
75
80
85
90
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US Dollar IndexMay 2009 - Jun 2014
Source: McKinsey: Debt and (not much) Deleveraging
Q4 2000 Q4 2007 Q4 2014
Global DebtQ4 2000 - Q4 2014
$20 Trillion$37 Trillion
$22 Trillion
$33 Trillion
$58 Trillion
$26 Trillion
$38 Trillion
$56 Trillion
$45 Trillion
$19 Trillion
$33 Trillion
$40 Trillion$57 Trillion
Source: David Stockman
19951995
2015
Total Central Bank Assets1995 vs 2015
$21.0 trillion
$2.1 trillion
Source: Bloomberg
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 20001978 1980 1982 1984 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
S&P5001978 - 2016
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2016
Source: Bloomberg
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015t
US Corporate Profits (with IVA & CCA YoY %)1986 - 2015
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
US Dollar Index Post-QE3Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
Source: Bloomberg
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb 16
Source: Bloomberg
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
US Dollar Index1976 - 2016
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
S&P500 Post-QE3Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb 16
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20122011 2013 2014 2015
QE3 Ends
S&P500 Price/Earnings Ratio2006 - 2015
Source: Bloomberg
MSCI World Index Post-QE3Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb 16Source: Bloomberg
1485149515051515152515351545155515651575158515951605161516251635164516551665167516851695170517151725173517451755176517751785179518051815
Source: Bloomberg
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
1750
1850
MSCI World Index2011 - 2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
QE3 Ends
HYG Post-QE3Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb 16Source: Bloomberg
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
LQD Post-QE3Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb 16Source: Bloomberg
112
114
116
118
120
122
124
TLT Post-QE3Oct 2014 - Feb 2016
Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb 16Source: Bloomberg
115
120
125
130
135
140
Source: Bloomberg
0
2
4
6
8
10
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
German 10-Year Bund Yield1989 - 2016
Source: Bloomberg
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Japan 10-Year Bund Yield1989 - 2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
Source: Bloomberg
30
40
50
60
70
80
1948 1952 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1992 1996 2004 20122000 2008 20161960 1968 1976 1984
US Manufacturing ISM1948 - 2016
Source: Bloomberg
1964 1972 1980 1988 1992 1996 2004 20122000 2008 20161960 1968 1976 1984
US PCE YoY1960 - 2016
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
Source: Bloomberg
1948 1952 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1992 1996 2004 20122000 2008 20161960 1968 1976 1984
US Industrial Production YoY1944 - 2016
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1944
Source: Bloomberg
1995 1999 2003 2007 2009 2011 201520131993 1997 2001 2005
US Total Exports ($mln)1993 - 2015
35000400004500050000550006000065000700007500080000850009000095000
100000105000110000115000120000125000130000135000140000145000150000
2001Recession
2008Recession
?????
Source: Bloomberg
1994 1998 2002 2006 2008 2010 201420121992 1996 2000 2004
US Durable Goods New Orders (YoY)1992 - 2015
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Source: Bloomberg
1998 2002 2006 2008 2010 201420122000 20041999 2003 2007 2009 2011 201520132001 2005
Total Global Exports (YoY)1998 - 2015
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: Bloomberg
1998 2002 2006 2008 2010 201420122000 20041999 2003 2007 2009 2011 201520132001 2005
Global PMI1998 - 2015
30
40
50
60
Source: Bloomberg
2006 2008 2010 201420122007 2009 2011 201520132005
China Manufacturing PMI2005 - 2015
40
50
60
Source: Bloomberg
2008 2010 201420122007 2009 2011 20152013
China Non-Manufacturing PMI2007 - 2015
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
Source: Bloomberg
1971 1979 2007 201119951967 1975 1987 201520031991 19991983
Korea Exports YoY1967 - 2015
-30
0
30
60
90
120
150
Source: Bloomberg
2007 201119951987 201520031991 19991983
Taiwan Exports YoY1982 - 2015
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Source: Bloomberg
Nikkei 225 IndexJan 29 2016
11:30am 12:30pm 2:00pm1:00pm12:00pm 1:30pm
-4.94%[0:33:30]
16650
17150
17650
REACTION RECOVERY
Source: FactSet/Oxford Economics/WSJ/Bloomberg
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 20151996 1996 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
17.5%
20.0%
22.5%
25.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015
% of Global GDP under the auspices ofa Central Bank with Negative Rates
ECBDenmarkSwedenSwitzerlandJapan
Source: Bloomberg
1970 1980 1990 2000 20101975 1985 1995 2005 2015
99.48%
94.50%
99.38% 99.14%
Smoothed US Recession Probabilities1967 - 2015
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: Bloomberg
UST 2s/10s Spread vs Fed Funds1986 - 2015
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Source: Bloomberg
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 20132011 2014 2015
Global CPI (YoY %)1997 - 2015
Source: Bloomberg
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112000 2001 2002 2003 2012 2013 2014 2015
Benchmark Interest Rates2000 - 2016
2016
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
ECBDenmarkJapanSwitzerlandSweden
Source: Bloomberg
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
CPI (YoY%)1997 - 2016
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
EUSwitzerlandJapanSwedenDenmark
