George A. ShumakerProfessor Emeritus, Ag & Applied Economics

GRAIN AND OILSEEDOUTLOOK AND SITUATION REPORT

March 1, 2005South Carolina Ag Expo

Columbia, SC

U.S. Cash Receipts 2003-2004FU.S. Farm Sector Cash Receipts 2003-2004FCrop Receipts 2003 2004F %

Corn 18.3 20.4 11.5Soybeans 15.9 16.1 1.3Wheat 6.7 7.5 11.9Cotton 5.0 5.3 6.0

Sub-total 45.9 49.3 7.4

Total Crops 106.2 111.9 5.4Total Livestock 105.5 121.5 15.2

Total Receipts 211.6 233.4 10.3

$ billion

Value Per Acre vs

YieldChanges in $/acre versus Changes in YieldsCrop Receipts 2003 2004F % 2003 2004F %

Corn 258 277 7.4 142.2 160.4 12.8Soybeans 219 218 -0.8 33.9 42.5 25.4Wheat 126 150 18.9 44.2 43.2 -2.3Cotton 417 406 -2.6 730.0 846.0 15.9

Total 1,020 1,051 3.0

yield$ acre

GLOBAL COURSE GRAIN

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Mill

ion

Met

ric

To

nn

es

Production Use End Stocks

U.S. CORN ACREAGE

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mil

lio

n A

cres

Planted Harvested

U.S. Corn Yields

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Bu

shel

s P

er A

cre

U.S. Corn Total Supply

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mill

ion

Bu

shel

s

Production Carry In Stocks

U.S. Corn Usage

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Mill

ion

Bu

shel

s

Feed Use F. S.& I. Export

U.S. Dollar Index

BSE WILD CARD!

Grain Consuming Animal Units

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mil

lio

ns

Food, Seed & Industrial Use of U.S. Corn

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Th

ou

san

d B

ush

els

HFCS Glocuse & Dextrose Starch Fuel Beverage Cereal & Other

U.S. Corn End Stocks

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Mill

ion

Bu

shel

s

U.S. Corn Price vs Stocks-Use Ratio

$1.50

$1.70

$1.90

$2.10

$2.30

$2.50

$2.70

$2.90

$3.10

$3.30

$3.50

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Do

lla

rs P

er

Bu

sh

el

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Sto

cks-

to-U

se R

atio

Corn Price Stocks-Use Ratio

CORN SEASONAL PRICE TENDENCIES1997-2002

Jan Feb Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct Nov

Dec

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

% o

f S

easo

n A

vera

ge

Weekly Nearby CornFutures

December Corn Futures

GLOBAL SOYBEAN SITUATION

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Mil

lio

n M

etir

c T

on

nes

Production Use End Stocks

U.S.SOYBEAN ACREAGE

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mill

ion

Acr

es

Planted Harvested

U.S.SOYBEAN YIELDS

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Bu

shel

s P

er A

cre

U.S. SOYBEANS TOTAL SUPPLY

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mill

ion

Bu

shel

s

Production In Stocks

SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Mill

ion

Bu

shel

s

Brazil Argentina Paraguay

U.S. SOYBEAN USE

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mill

ion

Bu

shel

s

Domestic Exports Other

U.S. SOYBEAN END STOCKS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mill

ion

Bu

shel

s

U.S. SOYBEAN PRICE vs STOCKS RATIO

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

Stocks Ratio Price

SEASONAL PRICE TENDENCIES1997-2002

Nov

Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

% o

f S

ea

so

n A

ve

rag

e P

ric

e

Weekly Nearby Soybean Futures

November Soybean Futures

GLOBAL WHEAT SITUATION

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Mill

ion

Met

ric

To

nn

es

Production Use End Stocks

U.S. WHEAT ACRES

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mill

ion

Ac

res

Planted Acres Harvested Acres

U.S. Wheat Yields

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Bu

shel

s P

er A

cre

U.S.WHEAT - TOTAL SUPPLY

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mill

ion

Bu

shel

s

Carry In Stocks Production

U.S. Wheat Use

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mill

ion

Bu

shel

s

Domestic Mill Use Exports Seed Feed

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mil

lio

n B

us

he

ls

WHEAT PRICE vs STOCK-USE RATIO

9192 93

94

9596

97

9899

'00'01

'02'95

90

'03'04

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%

WHEAT SEASONAL PRICE TENDENCIESJuly Futures Contract 1997-2002

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jun

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

% o

f S

easo

n A

vera

ge

Nearby Weekly Wheat Futures

July Wheat Futures