Grain and Oilseed Market Outlook - ilsoyadvisor.com · Grain and Oilseed Market Outlook Todd Hubbs...

Grain and Oilseed Market Outlook

Todd Hubbs

[email protected]

Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

University of Illinois

mailto:[email protected]

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use

Area Planted (mil. Acres) 56.24 56.84 55.0 50.1 46.0 47.8

Area Harvested (mil. Acres) 45.33 46.39 47.3 43.9 37.5 39.6

Yield (Bu./Acre) 47.1 43.7 43.6 52.7 46.3 47.6

Production (mil. Bu) 2,135 2,026 2,062 2,309 1,740 1,884

Total Supply (mil. Bu) 3,026 2,768 2,927 3,402 3,079 3,123

Exports (mil. Bu) 1,176 864 775 1,051 901 1,000

Feed and Residual (mil. Bu) 228 114 152 161 50 110

Food (mil. Bu) 955 958 957 949 964 970

Seed (mil. Bu) 77 79 67 61 63 69

Total Use (mil. Bu) 2,436 2,015 1,952 2,222 1,979 2,149

Ending Stocks (mil. Bu) 590 752 976 1,181 1,099 974

Season Average Price ($ per Bu.) $6.87 $5.99 $4.89 $3.89 $4.72 $5.05-5.25http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: WASDE

Major Producers and Importers

http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu

Wheat Production – Major Producers


717 625

1,168

4,8695,056

4,574

3,663

937

1,885

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Argentina Australia Canada China European Union FSU - 12 India Pakistan United States

Mill

ion

s o

f B

ush

els

2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019

Data: FAS GATS

Major World Wheat Importers

http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: FAS PSD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Egypt Indonesia Brazil Algeria EuropeanUnion

Bangladesh Japan Philippines Mexico Nigeria

Mil

lio

ns

of

Bu

sh

els

2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019

Largest Markets for U.S. All Wheat Exports: Last Five Marketing Year Average


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mexico* Japan* Philippines* Nigeria* Brazil* China South Korea Taiwan Indonesia* Columbia EU-27*

Mil

lio

ns

of

Bu

sh

els

Data: FAS PSD

Largest Markets for U.S. All Wheat Export Total Commitments through December 13: Last Two Marketing Years

http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: FAS Export Sales

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Philippines Mexico Japan S. Korea Nigeria Thailand Taiwan Indonesia EU-27

Mil

lio

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f B

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els

2018-19 2017-18

Export Inspections through Jan. 24 total 528 million bushels. Need to export approximately 27 million bushels a week for rest of marketing year to hit USDA projection.

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Supply:

Production (mil. bu.) 27,631 27,851 26,948

Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 8,965 9,443 10,286

Total Supply(mil. bu.) 36,596 37,294 37,234

Consumption:

Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 27,154 27,264 27,383

Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 9,443 10,031 9,651

Stocks-to-use 35.0% 36.8% 35.2%

Average farm price ($/bu.) $3.89 $4.72 $5.15

World Wheat Supply and Use

http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: WASDE

Stocks and Average Price by Marketing YearMarketing

YearU.S. Stocks

to UseWorld Stocks

to UseWorld less China

Stocks to UseU.S. Avg. Farm Price

$ per bu.Illinois Avg. Farm

Price

2012-13 29.9% 25.8% 22% $7.77 $7.13

2013-14 24.2% 28.3% 22.6% $6.87 $6.52

2014-15 37.3% 31.3% 24.5% $5.99 $4.98

2015-16 50% 34.5% 24.7% $4.89 $3.85

2016-17 53.1% 35.3% 23.5% $3.89 $4.09

2017-18 55.5% 37.6% 23.8% $4.72 $4.55

2018-19 45.3% 35.9% 17% $5.15 $5.05


Illinois Monthly Average Wheat Price

http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: NASS

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Do

lla

rs p

er

Bu

sh

el

Monthly Avg. Price Received in Illinois (2005-06 to 2017-18) Monthly Avg. Price Received in Illinois (2014-15 to 2017-18)

Monthly Avg. Price Received in Illinois (2018-19)

2019-20 Wheat Balance Sheet2019-20

Current USDA

Forecast

2019-20

Forecast Low Exports 18-19

2019-20

ForecastLower Acreage

Supply:

Planted Acreage (mil.) 51.0 51.0 47.4

Harvested Acreage (mil.) 43.1 43.1 39.5

Yield (bu./ac.) 47.8 47.8 47.8


Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 974 995 995

Imports (mil. bu.) 130 130 130

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,164 3,185 3,013

Consumption:

Domestic Use (mil. bu.) 1,163 1,163 1,163

Export (mil. bu.) 1,050 1,050 1,050


Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 951 972 800

Stocks-to-use 42.97% 43.92% 36.15%


U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 USDA

Estimate2018/19 USDA

Forecast

Area Planted (mil. Acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.1


Yield (Bu./acre) 44 47.5 48 52.0 49.3 52.1

Production (mil. Bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,296 4,296 4,411 4,600

Imports (mil. Bu.) 72 33 24 22 22 25

Total Supply (mil. Bu.) 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,734 5,063

Crush (mil. Bu.) 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,080

Seed and Residual (mil. Bu.) 107 146 122 146 122 128

Exports (mil. Bu.) 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,900

Total Use (mil. Bu.) 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,214 4,296 4,107

Ending Stocks (mil. Bu.) 92 191 197 302 438 955

Season Average Price ($ per Bu.) $13.00 $10.10 $8.95 $9.47 $9.33 $7.85 - $9.35


Soybean Production


3.13.2

2.7

3.0

3.4 3.3

3.1 3.0

3.4

3.9 3.9

4.34.4

4.6

2.12.2

2.22.1

2.5

2.8

2.4

3.0

3.2

3.6 3.5

4.2

4.4 4.4

1.5

1.81.7

1.2

2.0

1.8

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.1 2.1

1.4

2.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Bill

ion

s o

f B

ush

els

United States Brazil ArgentinaData: NASS

1,640

1,700

1,615

1,530

1,696

1,739

1,808 1,803

1,662

1,752

1,648

1,703 1,689

1,734

1,873 1,886 1,901

2,0552,080

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

Mill

ion

s o

f B

ush

els

U.S. Soybean Crush


U.S. Soybean Exports

9961,064 1,044

887

1,097

940

1,1161,159

1,279

1,499 1,505

1,3661,328

1,639

1,842

1,942

2,166 2,129

1,900

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Mill

ion

Bu

she

ls

U.S. Soybean Exports China Mexico JapanData: FAS GATS


487382

787

622

9481,041 1,056

1,3901,510

1,8191,923

2,1132,200

2,535

2,879

3,058

3,436 3,454

3,307

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Mill

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China Soybean Imports

http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: FAS

2018 Daily Soybean Export Prices for Paranagua Brazil and New Orleans

http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: CEPES and AMS

Brazil and U.S. Monthly Exports

http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: COMEX VIS and FAS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Mil

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U.S. 5-Year Avg. U.S. 2017-18 U.S. 2018-19 Brazil 5-Year Avg. Brazil 2017-18 Brazil 2018-19

U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price


$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Do

llars

pe

r Bu

sh

el

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio Avg. Farm Price

Data: WASDE

Soybean Balance Sheet2018-19

Current USDA

Forecast

2018-19

Forecast

2019-20

Forecast

Supply:

Planted Acreage (mil.) 89.1 89.1 85.7

Harvested Acreage (mil.) 88.3 88.3 84.9

Yield (bu./ac.) 52.1 51.8 49.2


Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 438 438 929

Imports (mil. bu.) 25 25 25

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 5,063 5,037 5,131

Consumption:

Crush (mil. bu.) 2,080 2,070 2,045

Export (mil. bu.) 1,900 1,910 1,930

Seed and feed (mil. bu.) 128 128 124


Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 955 929 1,022

Stocks-to-use 23.3% 22.6% 24.8%


Illinois Monthly Average Soybean Price


$8.00

$8.50

$9.00

$9.50

$10.00

$10.50

$11.00

$11.50

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Do

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er

Bu

sh

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Monthly Avg. Soybean Price Received in Illinois (2005-06 to 2017-18) Monthly Avg. Soybean Price Received in Illinois (2014-15 to 2017-18)

Monthly Avg. Soybean Price Received in Illinois (2018-19)

U.S. Corn Supply and Use2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

USDA Est.2018/19 USDA

Forecast

Area Planted (mil. Acres) 95.4 90.6 88 94.0 90.2 89.1


Yield (Bu./acre) 158.1 171 168.4 174.6 176.6 178.9

Production (mil. Bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,626

Imports (mil. Bu.) 36 32 67 57 36 45

Total Supply (mil. Bu.) 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,934 16,811

Feed and Residual (mil. Bu.) 5,002 5,284 5,113 5,472 5,298 5,500

Food, Seed, and Industrial (mil. Bu.) 6,493 6,601 6,643 6,883 7,058 7,080

Ethanol (mil. Bu.) 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,600

Exports (mil. Bu.) 1,920 1,867 1,901 2,293 2,438 2,450

Total Use (mil. Bu.) 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,793 15,030

Ending Stocks (mil. Bu.) 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,781

Season Average Price ($ per Bu.) $4.46 $3.70 $3.61 $3.36 $3.36 $3.25 - $4.95


Corn Production


12.4 12.3

10.8

13.814.2

13.6

15.1

14.6 14.6

2.3

2.93.2 3.1

3.3

2.6

3.9

3.33.7

1.0 0.81.1 1.0 1.2 1.2

1.61.3

1.7

0.7

1.3 1.3

1.9 1.7 1.61.9

1.72.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Bill

ion

of

Bu

she

ls

United States Brazil Argentina FSU - 12Data: NASS

U.S. Feed and Residual Use and Grain Consuming Animal Units


5,819 5,845

5,545

5,778

6,132 6,111

5,535

5,853

5,128 5,096

4,770

4,512

4,309

5,002

5,286

5,118

5,470

5,298

5,500

80

85

90

95

100

105

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millio

n A

nim

al U

nitsM

illi

on

s o

f B

us

he

ls

Feed and Residual Use Grain Consuming Animal Units

Data: NASS

U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol


630707

996

1,1681,323

1,603

2,119

3,049

3,709

4,591

5,019 5,000

4,641

5,1245,200 5,224

5,432

5,605 5,600

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Mill

ion

s o

f B

ush

els

Data: WASDE

U.S Ethanol Exports by Marketing Year


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

World Brazil Canada China India South Korea Mexico Netherlands Peru Phillippines

Mill

ion

s o

f G

allo

ns

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Data: EIA

U.S. Corn Exports


2,134 2,125

2,437

1,849

1,979

1,831

1,539

730

1,9211,867 1,899

2,294

2,438 2,450

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Mil

lio

ns o

f B

us

he

ls

World Mexico Japan South Korea Columbia

Data: FAS GATS

U.S. Corn Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price


$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Do

llars

per B

ush

el

Pe

rce

nt

Corn Stocks to Use Ratio Weighted Avg. Farm Price

Data: WASDE

Corn Balance Sheet2018-19

Current USDA

Forecast

2018-19

Forecast

2019-20

Forecast

Supply:

Planted Acreage (million acres) 89.1 89.1 91.8

Harvested Acreage (million acres) 81.8 81.8 84.5

Yield (Bushels / Acre) 178.9 177.6 174.2

Total Production(million bushels) 14,626 14,528 14,720

Beginning Stocks(million bushels) 2,140 2,140 1,768

Imports (million bushels) 45 40 40

Total Supply (million bushels) 16,811 16,708 16,528

Consumption:

Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,500 5,450 5,400

Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 7,080 7,100 7,090

Ethanol (million bushels) 5,600 5,620 5,600

Exports (million bushels) 2,450 2,390 2,275

Total Consumption (million bushels) 15,030 14,940 14,765

Ending Stocks (million bushels) 1,781 1,768 1,763

Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 11.8% 11.8% 11.9%

Average Price ($/bu.) $3.60 $3.70 $3.65

Illinois Monthly Average Corn Price


$3.20

$3.40

$3.60

$3.80

$4.00

$4.20

$4.40

$4.60

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Do

lla

rs p

er

Bu

sh

el

Monthly Avg Corn Price Received in Illinois (2005-06 to 2017-18) Monthly Avg Corn Price Received in Illinois (2014-15 to 2017-18)

Monthly Avg Corn Price Received in Illinois (2018-19)

•Thank You

•Questions?

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