GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MANAGEMENT - Kementerian … · 2016-08-10 · Benchmark Series 2016 Notes:...

DIRECTORATE OF GOVERNMENT DEBT SECURITIES

DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF BUDGET FINANCING AND RISK MANAGEMENT

MINISTRY OF FINANCE OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

MANAGEMENT

AUGUST 10, 2016

OUTLINE

2

1. Government Securities Financing Strategy 2016

2. Government Securities Performance

3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization

Framework

4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile

DISCLAIMER: This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of the Republic in any jurisdiction or as an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation is not and should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, investment or other product advice.

Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia


FINANCING STRATEGY 2016


FINANCING TREND, 2005 – 2016

(trillion IDR)

Notes: *Budget Realization 2015 **Revised Budget 2016

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016**

Gov't Securities (Net) 22.6 36.0 57.2 85.9 99.5 91.1 119.9 159.7 224.7 264.6 362.3 364.9

Domestic Loan (Net) - - - - - 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.7 3.4

Foreign Loan (Net) (10.3) (26.6) (26.6) (18.4) (12.4) (4.6) (17.8) (23.5) (5.8) (12.4) 10.4 2.5

Others/Non Debt (Net) (1.2) 20.0 9.1 16.6 25.5 4.6 28.3 38.1 18.1 (4.3) (55.2) (69.0)

Budget Deficit, % of GDP 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.1 1.6 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.35

0.5

0.9

1.3

0.1

1.6

0.7

1.1

1.8

2.3 2.3

2.5

2.35

(0.5)

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-80

-30

20

70

120

170

220

270

320

370

4


GENERAL DEBT FINANCING STRATEGY

FOR 2016

DEBT POLICY IN 2016 BUDGET

1. Manageable Debt-to-GDP

ratio 2. Financial inclusion &

market deepening

3. Debt issuance for productive

activity 4. Selective

external loan (infrastructure

and energy sector)

5. Loan as an alternative instrument

for financing

6. Active debt

management and ALM

5


GOVERNMENT BUDGET FOR 2016

Revised Budget Macro Assumptions

• Economic Growth: 5,2% • Inflation: 4,0% • Exchange Rate:

Rp13,500/USD • 3-Month Govt. Treasury Bills:

5,5% • ICP: USD40/barrel • Oil Lifting: 820 thousand

barrels/day • Gas Lifting: 1.150 thousand

barrels of oil equivalent per day

Description Budget (Baseline) Revised BudgetA. Total Revenue 1,822.5 1,786.2

I. Domestic Revenue 1,820.5 1,784.2

1. Taxation 1,546.7 1,539.2

2. Non-Taxation 273.8 245.1

II. Grant 2.0 2.0

B. Government Spending 2,095.7 2,082.9

I. Central Government Spending 1,325.6 1,306.7

1. Ministerial Spending 784.1 767.8

2. Non-Ministerial Spending 541.4 538.9

II. Transfer to Region and Village Fund 770.2 776.2

C. Primary Balance (88.2) (105.5)

D. Budget Deficit over GDP (%) (273.2) (296.7)

Deficit to GDP (2.15%) (2.35%)

E. Financing 273.2 296.7

I. Domestic 272.8 299.2

a. Banks 5.5 25.4

b. Non-Banks 267.3 273.9

• Government Securities 327.2 364.9

• Capital Injection 65.2

II. Foreign (Net) 0.4 (2.5)

6

Description Budget (Baseline) Revised BudgetA. Total Revenue 1,822.5 1,786.2

I. Domestic Revenue 1,820.5 1,784.2

1. Taxation 1,546.7 1,539.2

2. Non-Taxation 273.8 245.1

II. Grant 2.0 2.0

B. Government Spending 2,095.7 2,082.9

I. Central Government Spending 1,325.6 1,306.7

1. Ministerial Spending 784.1 767.8

2. Non-Ministerial Spending 541.4 538.9

II. Transfer to Region and Village Fund 770.2 776.2

C. Primary Balance (88.2) (105.5)

D. Budget Deficit over GDP (%) (273.2) (296.7)

Deficit to GDP (2.15%) (2.35%)

E. Financing 273.2 296.7

I. Domestic 272.8 299.2

a. Banks 5.5 25.4

b. Non-Banks 267.3 273.9

• Government Securities 327.2 364.9

• Capital Injection 65.2

II. Foreign (Net) 0.4 (2.5)


GOVERNMENT SECURITIES – INDICATIVE FINANCING

PLAN FOR 2016

International Bonds Issuance (USD, EUR, JPY-denominated)

Issuance of International Bonds as complement to avoid crowding out in domestic market and provide benchmark for corporate issuance, consists of USD, YEN or EURO global bonds;

Maximum issuance international bond 27% from target gross.

Government Debt Securities (SUN): 73 %; Sukuk : 27% ATM for Government Securities (SBN): 9-11 years.

Domestic Issuance

Issuance targets for GDS, Sukuk and ATM target

Weekly Auction: Conventional Securities: 23 x Islamic Securities: 23x

Non-Auction: Retail bonds: SR (Q1), SBR (Q2), Sukuk Tabungan (Q3),

and ORI (Q4) Private Placements: Based on request

Series Coupon Maturity

FR0053 8,250% July 15, 2021

FR0056 8,375% September 15, 2026

FR0073 8,750% May 15, 2031

FR0072 8,250% May 15, 2036

Benchmark Series 2016

Notes: USD/IDR: 13,500 1. SBR: “Saving Bond Ritel” or Retail Savings Bond 2. Sukuk Tabungan means Sukuk Savings Bond 3. ORI: “Obligasi Ritel Indonesia” or Indonesian Retail Bond

Instruments Indicative Target (IDR tn)

2016 R-Budget

Government Securities (Net) 364,867

Redemption 215,089

Cash Management 28,447

Buyback 3,000

Gov’t Securities Conversion 573

Government Securities (Gross) 611,403

Composition

Domestic 77%

Auction 58%

Non-Auction 18%

International Bond 23%

7


2016 SECURITIES FINANCING REALIZATION

(In Million IDR)

8

Budget 2016Revised Budget

2016

Revised Budget

Realization

(a.o. August 10,

2016)

% Realization to

Revised Budget

2016

Government Securities Net 327,224,357 364,866,887 332,061,542 91.01%

Government Securities Maturing in 2016 and Buyback 228,499,399 246,535,735 175,358,690 71.13%

Issuance Need for 2016 555,723,756 611,402,622 511,464,232 83.65%

Government Debt Securities (GDS) 358,395,702

Domestic GDS 249,356,982

-Coupon GDS 174,200,000

-Conventional T-Bills 39,340,000

-Private Placement* 31,897,977

-Retail Bonds 3,919,005

International Bonds 109,038,720

-USD GMTN 48,643,000

-Euro GMTN 44,975,610

-Samurai Bonds 12,760,910

-Domestic USD Bonds 2,659,200

Government Islamic Debt Securities 153,068,530

Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 119,661,030

- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated

Bond/Project Based Sukuk) 85,361,030

- Retail Sukuk 31,500,000

- Private Placement 2,800,000

Global Sukuk 33,407,500

*Including the issuance of Government Securities Conversion and IDR3.744 T issuance that will be settled on Aug. 12, 2016

- Issuance Government Securities Conversion 572,581 572,581

- Matured Government Securities Conversion 572,581 360,814

Nett Issuance Government Securities Conversion - 211,767


PERFORMANCE


0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 2-Aug-16

Incoming Bids Awarded Bids % Bid to Cover Ratio (RHS) % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS)

10

as of Aug 2, 2016

Average awarded bids

2016 = Rp14.24T/auction

Average Incoming Bid 2015 = Rp20.84T while Average Awarded Bid 2015 = Rp10.59T

Average incoming bids

2016 = Rp27.49T/auction

GDS PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE 2016

10

THROUGH AUCTION


0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 9-Aug-16

Incoming Bids Awarded Bids % Bid to Cover Ratio (RHS) % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS)

11

as of Aug 9, 2016

Average Incoming Bid

2016 = Rp20.34T

Average Awarded bids

2016 = Rp9.81T

GS PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE 2016

Average Incoming Bid 2015 = Rp14.05T, while Average Awarded Bid 2015 = Rp6.75T

11

THROUGH AUCTION


PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE EURO BONDS 2016

Summary Terms of Offering RIEUR0623 RIEUR0628

Issuer

Issuer Ratings

Issue Ratings

Issue

Size EUR1,500,000,000 EUR1,500,000,000

Pricing / Settlement Date

Maturity June 14, 2023 June 14, 2028

Coupon 2.625% payable annually 3.75% payable annually

Reoffer Yield / Price 2.772% / 99.076% 3.906% / 98.528%

Format

Listing

Total Book Order EUR4.23 billion EUR4.13 billion

Distribution Indonesia 11%, Asia 10%, Europe 58%, USA 21% Indonesia 2%, Asia 10%, Europe 49%, USA 39%

Investor TypeBanks 21%, Asset Managers 67%, Central Bank and

Sovereign Wealth Fund 7%, Insurance and others 5%

Banks 5%, Asset Managers 76%, Central Bank and

Sovereign Wealth Fund 10%, Insurance and others 9%

EUR fixed rate

June 7, 2016 / June 14, 2016

Republic of Indonesia

Baa3 Stable (Moody’s), BB+ Positive (S&P), BBB- Stable (Fitch)

Rule 144A / Reg S

SGX-ST, Frankfurt Open Market

Baa3 (Moody’s), BB+ (S&P), BBB- (Fitch)

12


PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE SAMURAI BONDS 2016

Summary Terms of Offering RIJPY0619 RIJPY0621

Issuer

Issue Ratings

Issue

Size JPY62,000,000,000 JPY38,000,000,000

Pricing / Settlement Date

Maturity June 21, 2019 June 21, 2021

Coupon 0.83% payable semi annually 1.16% payable semi annually

Reoffer Yield / Price 0.83% / 100% 1.16% / 100%

Spread over US Treasury 95 bps over JP 3yr Swap 125 bps over JP 5yr Swap

Yen swap rate -0.12% -0.09%

Total Book Order JPY62,000,000,000 JPY38,000,000,000

Distribution Asia 100% Asia 100%

Investor TypeCity Banks (10.5%), Public Funds (25.0%), Life Insurers

(4.8%), Asset Managers (11.3%), Regional Banks (4.8%),

Shinkin Banks (3.6%) and others (40.0%)

City Banks (52.6%), Public Funds (25.8%), Regional

Banks (9.2%), Shinkin Banks (2.6%) and others (9.8%)

June 15, 2016 / June 21, 2016

Republic of Indonesia

Baa3(Moody's) / BBB- (Fitch) / BBB- (R&I)

JPY fixed rate

13


2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Aug'1

0

Nov'1

0

Feb'1

1

May'1

1

Aug'1

1

Nov'1

1

Feb'1

2

May'1

2

Aug'1

2

Nov'1

2

Feb'1

3

May'1

3

Aug'1

3

Nov'1

3

Feb'1

4

May'1

4

Aug'1

4

Nov'1

4

Feb'1

5

May'1

5

Aug'1

5

Nov'1

5

Feb'1

6

May'1

6

Aug'1

6

5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y

6.62 (5Y), 6.82 (10Y), 7.19 (15Y), 7.30 (20Y)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Spread (bid-ask)

4.39 5.88 5.73 5.31 7.91 9.38 8.26 9.90 11.21 9.74 8.24 8.97 10.08 11.85

0.22 0.16 0.38 0.41

0.76 0.72

0.33 0.09

0.18 0.14

0.31 0.75

0.69 0.77

0.34

1.54 3.07 6.30

8.80

10.15

16.48

18.88

22.70 22.75

16.59

11.44

16.62

21.79

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

OUTRIGHT REPO BANK REPO BI

5.12

7.04

5.15

14.12 12.88

10.75 10.4511.40

-

3.00

6.00

9.00

12.00

15.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

As of August 9, 2016

[In Percentage]

Average Daily Trading Yields of Benchmark Series

Bid Ask Spread 10 Y Government Bond Turn Over 10 Y Government Bond


SECONDARY MARKET PERFORMANCE

Spread 6.815 bps

(ask 6.787 bid 6.843


14


• Market Watch as of August 10, 2016

• Source: Asian Bonds Online

YIELD GOVT BONDS ON PEER’S MARKET

Source: IDMA, Bloomberg, as of August 8, 2016

LCY 10 Year

Government

Bonds

Latest Yield YTD Change (BP) MTD

Change (BP)

HK 0.944 -63.5 -5.2

ID 6.869 -187.6 -6.6

JP -0.039 -30.4 +15.1

KR 1.435 -65.0 +5.3

MY 3.640 -54.6 +5.4

PH 3.240 -86.0 -9.9

SG 1.838 -76.0 +3.1

TH 2.041 -45.9 -1.6

US 1.592 -67.7 +13.9

VN 6.990 -18.5 +0.7

15

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y

9 Aug '16 2 Aug '16 11 Jul '16 9 Feb '12

23 Sep '11 27 Oct '08 13 Sep'05

[in percentage]


OWNERSHIP OF TRADABLE DOMESTIC

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES (in trillion IDR)

1) Non Resident consists of Private Bank, Fund/Asset Manager, Securities Company, Insurance Company, and Pension Fund.

2) Others such as Securities Company, Corporation, and Foundation.

*) Including the Government Securities used in monetary operation with Bank Indonesia.

**) net, excluding Government Securities used in monetary operation with Banks.

16

Description

Banks* 299.66 36.73% 335.43 33.70% 375.55 23.95% 442.76 29.81% 462.62 28.70% 470.58 28.12% 474.42 28.09%

Govt Institutions (Bank Indonesia**) - 0.00% 44.44 4.47% 41.63 10.19% 56.41 3.80% 54.37 3.37% 42.87 2.56% 45.20 2.68%

Bank Indonesia (gross) 150.18 10.11% 149.49 9.28% 147.97 8.84% 148.17 8.77%

GS use for Monetary Operation 93.77 6.31% 95.13 5.90% 105.10 6.28% 102.97 6.10%

Non-Banks 517.53 63.21% 615.38 61.83% 792.78 65.87% 985.99 66.39% 1094.70 67.92% 1159.80 69.31% 1169.12 69.23%

Mutual Funds 43.19 5.28% 42.50 4.27% 45.79 4.21% 61.48 4.14% 73.02 4.53% 77.92 4.66% 78.02 4.62%

Insurance Company 83.42 10.21% 129.55 13.02% 150.60 11.74% 173.26 11.67% 203.41 12.62% 213.43 12.76% 214.26 12.69%

Foreign Holders 270.52 32.98% 323.83 32.54% 461.35 38.21% 578.32 38.94% 626.17 38.85% 659.03 39.39% 666.42 39.46%

Foreign Govt's&Central Banks 50.06 6.13% 78.39 7.88% 103.42 7.55% 110.98 7.47% 112.49 6.98% 118.79 7.10% 117.47 6.96%

Pension Fund 56.46 6.91% 39.47 3.97% 43.30 3.41% 52.24 3.52% 57.41 3.56% 65.67 3.92% 66.29 3.93%

Individual 32.48 3.26% 30.41 2.91% 41.42 2.79% 49.19 3.05% 47.96 2.87% 47.88 2.84%

Others 63.64 7.79% 46.68 4.69% 60.51 5.37% 78.99 5.32% 85.50 5.31% 95.78 5.72% 96.24 5.70%

Total 817.19 100% 995.25 100% 1,209.96 100% 1,485.16 100% 1,611.69 100% 1,673.24 100% 1,688.74 100%

Jul-16 08-Aug-16Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Jan-16 Apr-16Dec-15


33.96

13.08

12.56

11.80

72.28

3.44

1.62

11.04

16.58

(2.12)

16.32

41.81

100.51

15.85

5.44

17.02

(20) - 20 40 60 80 100 120

Banks*

Bank Indonesia**

Mutual Fund

Insurance Company

Foreign Holders

Pension Fund

Individual

Others

INV

ES

TO

R T

YP

E

July YTD 2016 July YTD 2015

17

LOCAL INSURANCE AND PENSION FUND INCREASED

THEIR GOVT SECURITIES PORTFOLIO SIGNIFICANTLY..

[In trillion IDR]

17


FSA (OJK) Regulation No 1/POJK.05/2016 on Investment in Government Securities for Non-Bank Financial Institution

Life Insurance Company

Min. 20% of total investment ( by Dec.

31 2016).

Min 30% of total investment ( by Dec.

31 2017).

General Insurance, Reinsurance & Guarantee

Company


31 2016).


31 2017).

Employer Pension Fund


31 2016)

Min 30% of total investment ( by Dec.

31 2017).

BPJS Ketenagakerjaan (Workers Social Security

Agency)

Min. 50% of total investment of

Employment Social Security Fund (by Dec. 31 2016).

Min. 30% of total investment of BPJS Ketenagakerjaan (by

Dec. 31 2016)

BPJS Kesehatan (Healthcare Social Security Agency)

Min. 30% of total investment of BPJS Kesehatan (by Dec.

31 2016).

DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

18


(1.76)

10.13

23.98

6.08

(0.37)

4.82

16.49 15.77 16.10

20.15

6.43

14.67 15.95

13.17 12.49

21.34

(19.84)

39.48

6.84

(3.59)

4.10 6.31

23.04

(3.90)

(7.96)

(2.30)

5.39

8.38

21.37 19.80

9.46

18.30 20.09

(4.21)

22.03

15.04

7.39

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

(30.00)

(20.00)

(10.00)

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

Au

g-1

3

Oct-1

3

De

c-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Oct-1

4

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-1

5

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Capital Inflows [LHS] capital inflows over foreign [RHS]

FOREIGN INVESTOR ACTIVITY

Monthly Net Buyer (Seller) - Non Resident Foreign Ownership - Proportion by Tenor

[In IDR Trillion]

FOREIGN INVESTORS MOSTLY DOMINATED BY HIGH QUALITY LONG TERM INVESTORS


19

5.20% 4.65% 4.45% 3.23% 3.04% 3.54% 3.30% 3.52%

5.41% 3.73%2.34% 1.28% 1.55% 1.82% 2.36% 2.27%

12.88% 15.23%12.46%

11.82% 11.89% 10.78%

19.75% 19.41%

32.04% 33.58%

36.18%38.98% 38.36% 36.92%

26.19% 25.87%

44.46% 42.81% 44.56% 44.68% 45.16% 46.95% 48.40% 48.94%

32.54%

38.13% 39.63% 38.21% 38.94% 38.85% 39.39% 39.49%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Dec 13 Dec 14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 09-Aug-16

0-1 ≥1-2 ≥2-5 ≥5-10 ≥10 %Foreign Ownership of Total

CRISIS MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL &

BOND STABILIZATION FRAMEWORK


Pre-emptive Measures

Implementing Crisis Management Protocol

(CMP)

Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework

(BSF)

Enhancing coordination between government

institutions and continuous dialogue with market

participants

Specific policies in place to address crises

enacted in 2016 budget law

Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation

Crisis Management Protocol

Indicators to determine crisis level of

Government Securities Market condition (normal,

aware, alert, crisis)

Several market indicators that are monitored

daily:

- Yield of benchmark series;

- Exchange rate;

- Jakarta Composite Index;

- Foreign ownership in government securities

Policies to address the crisis at every level :

- Repurchase the government securities at

secondary market

- Postpone or stop the issuance

First Line of Defense

State’s Budget

Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing

and Risk Management

Investment fund at Public Service Agency

(BLU) (min. level Aware)

State Owned Enterprises

(BUMN)’s Budget Related BUMNs (min. level Aware)

Social Security

Organizing Agency

(BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Aware)

Second Line of Defense

State’s Budget

State General Treasury Account

(Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert)

Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min.

Level Crisis)

State Owned Enterprises

(BUMN)’s Budget Related BUMNs (min. level Alert)

Social Security

Organizing Agency

(BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Alert)

Bond Stabilization Framework

IMPLEMENT MEASURES TO MANAGE EXTERNAL VOLATILITY …TO MITIGATE SUDDEN REVERSALS

21

DEBT OUTSTANDING

&

RISK PROFILE


-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Loan Gov't Sec

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

-205

5

Domestic Foreign

TOTAL DEBT MATURITY PROFILE AS OF END OF JUNE, 2016

Maturity Profile of Central Government by Currencies (in trillion IDR)

Maturity Profile of Central Government by Instruments (in trillion IDR)

43%

57%

Foreign Domestic

78%

22%

Gov't Sec Loan

23


Notes: *Preliminary Figures **) Not included accrued interest IDR 35,21 Trillion

OUTSTANDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT

BY INSTRUMENT

Nominal %

a. Foreign Loan (in billion USD) 68.6 68.4 63.6 58.4 54.2 54.4 55.8 21.9%

Bilateral 42.3 42.1 37.2 31.5 26.9 24.7 25.8 10.1%

Multilateral 23.2 23.5 23.8 23.7 23.5 26.1 26.3 10.3%

Commercial 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.6 1.4%

Suppliers 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%

b Domestic Loan (in billion USD) 0.0 0.1 0.19 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1%

c. Government Securities (in billion USD) 118.4 131.0 140.8 136.3 155.2 174.7 199.0 78.0%

Foreign Currency Denominated 18.0 21.6 27.4 32.8 36.7 47.8 54.3 21.3%

Rupiah Denominated 100.4 109.4 113.4 103.5 118.5 126.9 144.7 56.7%

Total Central Government Debt

(in billion USD)187.0 199.5 194.9 209.7 229.4 255.1

Total Central Government Debt

(in trilion IDR)1,681.7 1,808.9 2,375.5 2,608.8 3,165.1 3,362.7

Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1) 8,991.0 9,068.0 12,189.0 12,440.0 13,795.0 13,180.0

GDP (in trillion IDR) 6,864.1 7,831.7 9,524.7 10,542.7 11,540.8

Debt to GDP Ratio 24.5% 23.1% 23.0% 24.9% 24.7% 27.4%

2010Description

June-16**)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

204.5

1,977.7

9,670.0

8,615.7

24


OUTSTANDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT

BY CURRENCY

Notes: *Preliminary Figures **) Not included accrued interest IDR 35,21 Trillion

Description 2011 2015*)

Original Currency

IDR (in trillion) 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,477.8 1,755.2 1,911.9

Gov't Securities 992.0 1,096.2 1,261.7 1,474.6 1,751.1 1,907.3

Loan 1.0 1.8 2.2 3.2 4.1 4.6

USD (in billion) 43.9 49.8 56.8 61.0 73.3 75.2

Gov't Securities 20.4 25.6 31.3 34.2 43.2 45.0

Loan 23.5 24.2 25.4 26.8 30.1 30.2

JPY (in billion) 2,589.8 2,498.8 2,395.3 2,223.1 2,143.4 2,135.4

Gov't Securities 95.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 255.0 355.0

Loan 2,494.8 2,343.8 2,228.8 2,068.1 1,888.4 1,780.4

EUR (in billion) 5.0 4.5 4.2 5.1 6.2 9.0

Gov't Securities - - - 1.0 2.3 5.3

Loan 5.0 4.5 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.7

Other currencies

Equivalent in Billion USD

IDR 109.5 113.5 103.7 118.8 127.2 145.0 56.8%

USD 43.9 49.8 56.8 61.0 73.3 75.2 29.5%

JPY 33.4 29.1 22.8 18.6 17.8 20.8 8.2%

EUR 6.4 6.0 5.8 6.3 6.7 10.0 3.9%

Other currencies 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.1 4.4 4.1 1.6%

Total Eq. in Billion USD 199.5 204.5 194.9 209.7 229.4 255.1

Equivalent in Trillion IDR

IDR 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,477.8 1,755.2 1,911.9

USD 397.9 481.9 692.0 758.6 1,009.2 990.9

JPY 302.5 281.2 278.3 231.8 245.5 274.0

EUR 58.5 57.5 71.1 77.7 92.4 131.6

Other currencies 57.1 59.1 70.2 62.9 62.9 54.4

Total Eq. in Trillion IDR 1,808.9 1,977.7 2,375.5 2,608.8 3,165.1 3,362.7

Foreign Currency Portion 45.1% 44.5% 46.8% 43.4% 44.5% 43.1%

Exchange Rate Assumption USD/IDR 9,068 9,670 12,189.0 12,440.0 13,795.0 13,180.0

2013 2014 June-16**)

2012

----------------Multiple Currencies -----------------------

25


10

.7%

10

.3%

10

.5%

11

.6%

12

.6%

10

.6%

9.9

%

9.9

%

11

.1%

13

.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditures

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT RATIOS

Debt to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Revenue and

Expenditure Ratio

Debt Service to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Tax Revenue &

Central Government Expenditure Ratio

Notes: Using GDP at Current Market Prices [2010 Version]

24.5% 23.1% 23.0%

24.9% 24.7%

27.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

7.7

%

7.5

%

7.9

%

8.6

%

10

.3%

7.2

%

6.7

%

6.8

%

7.5

%

8.6

%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

to Revenue to Expenditure

2.9% 3.2%

2.9%

3.5% 3.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

26


RISK INDICATORS

*) Preliminary figures

**) Using GDP assumption in R-Budget 2016

-Risk indicators are improving amidst pressure from rupiah depreciation

-Risk indicators show improvements in interest rate risk and stability in exchange and refinancing risks

18.816.2 16.0

14.8 14.012.3

25.9

22.5 23.221.0 21.1

18.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*) Juni-16**)

Interest Rate Risk

Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing rate [%]

10.4 10.2 11.7 10.7 11.8 11.4

45.1 44.446.7

43.4 43.9 43.2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*) Juni-16**)

Exchange Rate Risk

FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) **) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%)

9.32

9.70

9.60

9.73

9.289.32

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*) Juni-16**)

Average Time To Maturity

ATM (in years)

8.2 7.2 8.6 7.7 8.56.9

22.7 21.5 21.820.1

21.8 22.9

34.632.4 33.4 33.9 35.3 34.3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*) Juni-16**)

Debt Maturing

in < 1 year (%) in < 3 year (%) in < 5 year (%)

27

Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia

Directorate of Government Debt Securities

Frans Seda building, 4th Floor Jl. Wahidin Raya No. 1, Jakarta Pusat – Postal Code: 10710

Phone: +6221 3810175 Fax. : +6221 3846516

Website: www.djppr.kemenkeu.go.id

END OF PRESENTATION

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