Government of Pakistan»s Agriculture and Water Policies ...

Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change, Pakistan

Government of Pakistan»s Agriculture and Water Policies with respect to Climate Change

Policy Gap Analysis

2 Policy Gap Analysis

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Published by: IUCN Pakistan, Department for International Development (DFID), Royal Norwegian Embassy (RNE) and Government of Pakistan.

Copyright:© 2009 IUCN, the International Union for Conservation of Nature and NaturalResources.

Policy Gap Analysis was prepared by IUCN Pakistan.

This study was supported by the Department for International Development (DFID)and Royal Norwegian Embassy (RNE).

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Citation:IUCN Pakistan (2009). Policy Gap Analysis. IUCN Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan. 56 pp.

Author:Dr. Pervaiz Amir

Edited by:Frederick Nazareth

Design by:Azhar Saeed, IUCN Pakistan

Photographs:IUCN Pakistan

Printed by:Rosette Printers (Pvt) Limited

Available from:IUCN PakistanIslamabad OfficeHouse 9, Street 64Sector F-8/4, IslamabadTel: +92 (51) 2850250Fax: +92 (51) 2850249www.iucnp.org

1Policy Gap Analysis

ContentsExecutive Summary 2

I. Introduction 10

II. Agriculture Policy 12

III. Water Policy 28

IV. Conventions, Protocols Relevant to Agriculture and Water 43

V. Way Foreward and Recommendations 47

VI. Documents Consulted 51

VII. Persons Contacted 54

VIII. Volume II Annexure 56

Table of


SummaryExecutive

PPakistan is a front-line state coming to gripswith the serious concerns of ClimateChange. South Asia has been tagged by

the IPCC, 2007 as a region that will face seriouswater shortages despite intensive bouts ofprecipitation at short intervals during themonsoon seasons.

This is likely to result in an enhancedfrequency of floods and drought. Withglaciers receding, the long-termprospects of survival under a «businessas usual» scenario look bleak. Twoimportant task forces, one under theTechnical Advisory Panel of theMinistry of Environment and the otherthe Task Force on Climate Change bythe Pakistan Planning Commission, areproviding guidance on how to addressthe challenges of global warming andclimate change. Unequivocally, theattention is on adaptation to climatechange. On the other hand, mitigation,though recognized, is not considered amajor priority for Pakistan.

Water, energy and agriculture aremajor sectors that will be impacted byclimate change in Pakistan. Pakistanhas formulated certain policies (mostlyin draft form) that are aimed atspelling out its national priorities.While it does not have a climatechange policy as such, the need toincorporate climate change concernsin the existing policy documents onagriculture and water was recognizedby IUCN Pakistan. Consequently, aone-month study was conducted withthe following TOR»s:● Undertake a detailed literature

search on the subject andproperly document it in the studyannexes;

● Conduct interviews with relevantprofessionals;

● RReevviieeww all the agriculture andwater policies that are currently ineffect, either as proper policydocuments or in the form ofnotifications, speeches, or in anyother form;

● Identify gaps in the existingpolicies, with respect to theirrelevance to and contradictions ofGoP»s national and internationalcommitments under climatechange;

● Make recommendations on howto address the gaps/anomalies inthe existing policy framework of

agriculture and water, with respectto climate change.

The study entailed a review of theexisting literature relevant toagriculture policy, water policy and thestatus of variousconventions/protocols to whichPakistan is a signatory. It involvedinterviewing some of the keyprofessionals dealing with agriculture,water and climate change issues. Itidentifies the gaps and makesrecommendations on ways and meansto address the gaps in the existingdocuments. Gap analysis techniquesinclude commenting on what thepresent state is and how one could getto a desired state. The analysis alsolooks at the factors that contribute tothe gaps and the underlying rootcauses.

The specific information relevant toagriculture policy is rather scant. Anearlier policy framed in 1991 was theonly guiding document, along with theReport by the National Commission onAgriculture (1988), whereas laterdocuments, in the form of theMedium-Term DevelopmentFramework, Vision Statement till 2030, Agriculture Perspective andPolicies, etc., are more recent but arenot strictly policy documents. Theother less relevant documents areindividual policies, like the fertilizerpolicy, pesticide policy, credit policyand price support policies. In theagriculture sector there are severalspeeches and notifications, besides coalition party manifestos, that were also reviewed anddocumented.

Pakistan has a draft National WaterPolicy - 2005 that served as the focaldocument. In addition, there is theApportionment Accord and the IndusWater Treaty. These, along with someof the major studies undertaken overthe past several years, were reviewedfrom a climate change perspective.

The National Communication onClimate Change indicated the followingexpected impacts on agriculture inPakistan:

Shift in Spatial Boundaries of CropPotential Areas: Global climatechange will affect the growing season»slength, due to higher temperatures andreduced soil moisture, alter the stagesof plant growth, with acceleratedgrowth early in the season, affect thepartitioning and quality of bio-mass,affect crop pests and diseases, andentail spatial shifts in potential areas ofagricultural crops.

Changes in Productivity Potential:The quality and quantity of crop yieldwill be affected by climate change intwo ways: a) direct effects fromchanges in temperature, waterbalance, CO2 concentrations andextreme events; b) indirect effectsthrough changes in distribution,frequency and severity of pest anddisease outbreaks, incidence of fire,weed infestation, or through changesin soil properties.

Changes in Water Availability andUse: The increase in temperature hasa direct effect on crop evapo-transpiration and loss of soil moisture.The increase in crop evapo-transpiration, when combined with adecrease in precipitation in the rain-fedenvironments, results in decreasedcrop evapo-transpiration due to limitedavailability and the use of soil moistureby crops.

Changes in Cropping Patterns: Arise in temperature and reduction inrainfall could increase the net irrigationwater requirement of crops, therebyforcing farmers to make changes incropping patterns to adjust to climatechange.

Changes in Land Use Systems: Theglobal warming, climatic extremes andCO2 concentrations would lead to


changes in land use systems due tochanges in the growing season ofcrops. The climatic changes in aridclimates would result in increasedsalinity and/or water-logging, whichwould in turn create a demand forintegration of forestry and aquaculturewith the crop-based farming systems.

It was noted that in the agriculturepolicy context a general statementmust be added that reflects theclimate change scenario faced byPakistan. The present study proposesthe following statement:A. Agriculture policy will implement

measures that will help preserveour agriculture, protect theproductivity and sustainability offarm communities and ensureeconomic welfare by adapting tothe challenges posed by climatechange through the adoption ofnew technologies and applicationof science-based knowledge.

B. Agriculture policy will address theissues of climate change amongstfarms, agribusiness entities,producers and consumers byproviding information and know-how on finding ways and meansto adjust by shifting/substitution tonew crops, crop rotations,livestock species, fisheries andforestry that ensure the sustainedgrowth of our farm systems byshowing sensitivity to greenhousegas emissions.

C. Climate change will alter thecomparative advantages of certainproductive enterprises. Researchorganizations and economicanalysis institutions will besupported to evaluate thepostulated impacts on each of thedominant enterprises within the 8climatic zones and proposemodifications in enterprise mix,technology, input use andincentives. Modeling policyproposals will help analyzepresent, future and predictedimpacts under various scenarios.

D Agriculture policy will incorporatea monitoring and evaluationmechanism to ensure widespreadcompliance with internationalconventions and agreementsrelevant to agriculture (UNFCCC,Kyoto Protocol, WTO, BasalAgreement, etc.) entered into bythe Government of Pakistan.

E. All national policies on agriculturewill be developed throughstakeholder participation, withspecial attention given toprovincial governments»viewpoints to reflect the closeharmony between the federalgovernment and provinces, asagriculture is essentially aprovincial subject.

The Vision Statement 2030 amplifies:≈Our vision is an efficient andcompetitive sustainable agricultureensuring food security and with abilityto contribute to the economicdevelopment and poverty alleviation inPakistan∆. The Vision Statement shouldmake a strong case for agriculture inthe context of climate change. Pakistanis a signatory to the Kyoto Protocoland UNFCCC, along with several otherconventions related to environmentalsustainability. The Vision Statementshould reflect our commitment to theseconventions with clearly identifiedprograms and projects relevant toPakistani conditions. As Pakistan playsits role in reducing emissions as aresponsible member of the internationalcommunity, it will require huge financialresources to tackle the problems of thenegative impacts caused by climatechange. The Vision Statement mustreflect the harsh realities of financialcrisis, the global impacts of uncertainprices and markets, and its strategiclocation between China and India,which are rapidly emerging economieswith the likelihood of high carbonemissions.

This review of government circulars,notifications and newspaper

statements clearly shows that thepresent government policies:1. Aim at protection of small-holder

agriculture (almost 70%) andensuring that farm productivity isincreased at a rate that iscommensurate with the populationgrowth rate of the country.

2. Accord simplistic recognition to thefact that there are threats toagriculture from climate change thatcan have negative impacts, but donot give them adequate importancein the formulation of water andagriculture policies. They pay littleattention to the opportunities thatclimate change may offer in someareas, e.g. in water-logged areas.

3. Clearly define Food Security as apriority area, and yet only proposethe implementation of short-termmeasures without a clearlychalked out long-term course ofaction based on sound modelingand analytical analysis.

4. Do not adequately reflect thechanging realties in internationaltrade and the internationalcommitments under WTO towhich Pakistan is a signatory.

5. Fail to acknowledge or highlightthe fact that Pakistan is not amajor player in carbon emissionsbut is being penalized for theactions of others in the past(Western industrialized countries)and more recently those emergingas expanding economies (Indiaand China).

6. Only look at policy from adomestic perspective, ignoring thenew opportunities of leasing outlarge chunks of land to other (i.e.Middle Eastern) countries to besubmitted to high-tech agricultureon a long-lease basis. Maldives isconsidering the outright purchaseof land, fearing its land mass willbe submerged by a rise in sealevels. Pakistan»s delta regionsand coastline would face similarconsequences.


This review clearly shows that climatechange will impact agriculture in thefollowing ways:● Reduce yields of all major cereals

in the southern plains with minorimprovements in yield in thenorthern area.

● Lead to significant shifts incropping patterns and croprotations and significantly modifythe crop calendar in response toclimate change.

● Reduce the overall agriculturalgrowth rate, resulting inwidespread poverty amongstalready marginalized anddisadvantaged groups.

● Lead to land degradation and thecreation of «hot spots» that havelarge populations.

● Increase the demand foragricultural produce in urban areasdue to a shift in rural-urbanpopulations and the creation ofmega-cities. This trend willintensify the need for «urbanagriculture», which has beenneglected in the past. Such shiftswill impact the income of areasthat have traditionally maintaineda comparative advantage in theproduction of fruits, livestock(meat & milk), vegetables and fish.

● Change the type of investmentneeded to maintain agriculturalproduction at present levels. Hugeamounts of investment will becomea prerequisite to procuretechnology, build a marketinfrastructure and create assetformation, as never seen in the past.

● Climate change-related energycrises will have direct linkages toagriculture mechanization.Renewable energy resource shiftswill force farming communities toinvest in energy-savingtechniques, thus changing theprofitability of agriculture. Bio-fuels present an emergingopportunity that needs to beexplored carefully.

● Sustainability concepts may nolonger be sustainable, as lifestylesand patterns of living will have tochange in meaningful ways inorder to adapt to climate change.Expecting agriculture to maintainproduction at sustainable levelswould seem unreasonable undersuch a regime.

● Create many new situations notyet planned or perceived. Theseinclude the rapidly expandingweed complex in both theirrigated and dry lands ofPakistan. The shifts in monsoonrainfall patterns now posechallenges for most farmingsystems. A good example is theuneven ripening of the crops, e.g.gram, where in certain fields 30%of the crop is completely ripe,30% half-ripe, and 40%completely green. Imagine thedifficulties in harvesting such acrop using migrant labor.

PERSPECTIVE PLAN ANDPOLICIESOnly a casual mention of climatechange is found in this importantdocument. Agriculture Perspective andPolicy (2004) states on page 78:

vii. Global Climate Changes● Development of agricultural

meteorology laboratoriesnetwork for Databaseforecasting, modeling andsimulation of the effects ofchanging climate on cropyields/cropping patterns fordevelopment of early warningsystems.

● Effect of global climate changeon crop yields.

● Effect of global climate changeon forests and rangelands.

● Greenhouse gas emissions fromagricultural lands and animalfarms.

● quantification and controltechnologies.

This list of research areas is ratherlimited and seems to overlook thewidespread impact climate change willhave on Pakistan»s agriculture withinthe dominant agro-ecological zones.According to IPCC (2007), the yield ofcereal crops could go down by morethan 20-40%, creating immense foodshortages. Similar impacts areenvisaged for other, non-cereal crops,livestock, fisheries, fruits andvegetables in irrigated areas, dry landsand the delta regions of Sindh. Besidesyield decreases, the quality of produceis likely to be impacted negatively.

A dramatic shift in the presentresearch goals is needed to ensurethat future breeding programs worrymore about how to maintain yield oreven sacrifice yield in favor of moredrought-tolerant varieties.

Research and adaptation-relatedapplied trials are needed to addressforest, inland fisheries and high-valuehorticultural crops to determine theirproduction thresholds under a varietyof climate change scenarios.

Develop an adaptation plan for theagriculture sector and ensure that allstakeholders accept ownership. Sinceagriculture is essentially a provincialsubject, it is important that all theprovinces are kept abreast of state-of-the-art knowledge on climate changeand coordinate efforts to mitigate itseffects and adapt to its vagaries. Mostof the implementation and prescriptivepolicies must be developed andowned by the provincial governments,which are responsible for their design,implementation, gains/losses,outcomes, etc. At times provincialgovernments are not sufficientlyconsulted and are hesitant toimplement decisions that are«top-down» in nature.

This review, undertaken to determinegaps and anomalies, revealed a lack ofrecognition of a climate change


perspective in planning documents thatrelate to agriculture policy. Firstly, asnoted, none of the documents after2000 recognizes the negative or positiveaspects of climate change as the driverof policy instruments and prescriptions.Secondly, the National Commission onAgriculture culminated in 1988 and wasto serve as a broader review of theagriculture sector, with detailedrecommendations on tackling thechallenges to agriculture. It is almost 20years old and in need of immediateattention and reformulation. Thirdly, 5-year plans, strategy documents, andthe Medium-Term DevelopmentFramework generally overlooked thedebate on climate change and areseriously deficient in this aspect.

Where they do mention climate change,it is often unclear how climate change isincluded as a cross-sectoral issue thatimpacts all aspects of agriculturalenterprise production, marketing,processing and transportation. Likewise,the policies in agriculture are duplicativeand at times contradictory to climatechange mitigation and adaptation, forexample, granting loans for additionalsugarcane mills and enhancingsugarcane acreage in a situation wherewater shortages are anticipated. Another example is the electricitysubsidization issue in Balochistan thathas depleted the aquifers beyondrecovery. These policies are counter-intuitive in the context of climatechange, and need to be rationalized and reformulated without delay.

Pakistan has signed severalinternational conventions, and it isimportant that the policy documentsreflect the commitments and actions ithas taken to address the covenants ofthe conventions. Likewise, there is aclear gap in documenting examples ofclimate change in Pakistan»sagriculture that are location and

time-specific, such as sea intrusion,extended droughts, shifting of the Rabicrop harvesting, with its implicationson the crop calendar. A few studies onwheat and rice, based on secondarytime series data and regional climatechange models, are helpful but requirefar more down-scaling to be useful inpolicy planning.

Civil society organizations and NGO»sare interacting with a variety ofstakeholders in the agriculture sector.Their experiences also need to bebetter documented and made availableto the policy makers1. Anotherimportant gap is the inclusion of aclimate change perspective ashighlighted by donor agencies (i.e.World Bank, Asian Development Bank,UNDP, USAID) in projects beingnegotiated or implemented in Pakistan.This needs to be rectified to ensurethat upcoming projects beingappraised by the Planning Commissionand other agencies meet internationalstandards and comply with thecommitments Pakistan is makingunder international conventions.

The National Water Policy aims toachieve the following objectives:● Efficient management and

conservation of existing waterresources

● Optimal development of potentialwater resources

● Steps to minimize time and costover-runs in completion of watersector projects

● Equitable water distribution invarious areas and canal commands

● Measures to reverse rapidlydeclining groundwater levels inlow-recharge areas

● Increased groundwaterexploitation in potential areas

● Effective drainage interventions tomaximize crop production inwater-logged areas

● Improved flood control andprotective measures

● Steps to ensure acceptable andsafe quality of water

● Minimization of salt build-up andother environmental hazards inirrigated areas

● Institutional reforms to make themanaging organizations moredynamic and responsive

As can be noted from the above policyobjectives, the climate changeperspective is totally missing inrecognition and/or scope, therebyleading to setting goals, objectives andtargets that become difficult to achievein the medium to long term. This is aserious flaw and in recent conferencesand discussions, both nationally andinternationally, climate change is notedas a threat to Pakistan»s water resources.

The study provides suggestions forincorporating text within the 18 policyareas covered by the draft NWP.Therefore, in making any revisions in thewater policy these statements can beincorporated after suitable modificationsand vetting by stakeholders.

The study also looked at the WaterApportionment Accord of 1991 andfound the document silent on theSOP»s for the document, nor does itdeal with the question of unexpectedchanges in the overall water resourcesresulting from extreme glacier melt,significant changes in timing, theintensity and pattern of precipitationfrom worldwide phenomena such asglobal warming and climate change. Italso does not speak about what theterms of the Accord are under forcemajeure conditions.

The document should be revised bytaking all the key stakeholders intoconfidence. An amendment needs tobe made on water allocations under


1 A Powerpoint presentation documenting the field situation is provided by Sindhu, S. «Increasing the resilience of poor communities in Pakistan to copewith impacts of Climate Change in Pakistan», Rural Development Policy Research Institute (no date). Locate on net with title.

climate change after (a) careful anddetailed analysis of the protection ofwater rights and the agriculture foodsecurity of the country, (b) establishinga conflict resolution authority toaddress the issues of a high level ofwater variability resulting fromuncertain conditions that may havepermanence. Current institutions likeIRSA may not be adequately equippedto handle such complex issues withsolid analytical modeling and researchsupport.

IUCN should bring up this issue andfacilitate discussion. The actualrevision of the document should onlybe attempted after it gains acceptanceby all the stakeholders and is reviewedat the level of various provincial waterforums and a National Water Council(or similar body) and the parliament.

The study also underlined the need tore-look at the Indus Water Treaty andtake a long-term view of its validityunder a climate change scenario. Itemphasizes that as climate changebrings more and more waters duringfloods to India it will store whatever itcan and release the rest to thedetriment of the lower riparian(Pakistan). A recent example is the2008 floods in Sutlej that played havocwith Pakistan»s agriculture. In anotherinstance, Pakistan is claiming that dueto upper storage construction on theWestern rivers (which belong toPakistan) it is being deprived of almost0.2 MAF water so critical to Punjab»sagriculture. Pakistan has hinted it willseek compensation from India over thestoppage of this water.

The Indian energy and water demandscenario, climate change andPakistan»s position on India»s waterstorage and development works onWestern rivers suggest a careful re-assessment of the Treaty (possiblere-negotiation under a force majeureclause) to address the seriousemerging trends that will have

widespread consequences for the twocountries. In Pakistan there is a stronglobby that considers the Treaty assacrosanct and argues that sincePakistan is the lower riparian and ittook almost 10 years to arrive at thisTreaty, opening up the issue again isnot in Pakistan»s interest. Thisuncompromising view may beappropriate under a «business asusual» scenario, but Pakistan musttake a very serious look at its optionsin the wake of postulated climatechanges and the changing regionalpolitical situation (i.e. the November2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai and itseffects on India-Pakistan relations).

While discussions on the scope of theBaglihar Dam project (Chenab river)and the Kishanganga project design(Jhelum river) were beyond the scopeof this study, the lesson to be drawn issimple: under extreme situations, likethat of unexpected changes in waterresource availability, countries will beforced to revisit (sometimes evenrevamp) treaties - and climate changeis unfortunately such an unexpectedextreme case!

WATER1. Further debate the proposed

incorporation of text suggested inchapter 3 in the relevant clausesof the draft National Water Policy

2. Open up in-house discussion onthe Indus Water Treaty and re-evaluate the effectiveness of thisTreaty under the various climatechange scenarios identified inIPCC, 2007 and newly emergingevidence that the incidence andintensity of certain events like themelting of snow-caps, glacier meltand shortened but intensive boutsof precipitation are happeningearlier than predicted.

3. Address the shortcomings in theWater Apportionment Accord inthe light of anticipated climatechange and take all the provinces

into confidence on appropriatefallback proposals. Such in-housedebate should be held in atransparent manner and all partiestaken into confidence about thelikely future scenarios.

4. Pakistan met the challenges ofwater-logging and salinity withinternational help in the sixties.The present water resourcechallenge posed by climatechange requires a similar responsethat brings together some of thebest minds in the world to addressa problem of such seriousmagnitude. The possibility ofacquiring such high-level technicalassistance and specializedexpertise (e.g. the Roger RevelleReport under President J. F.Kennedy) to review andrecommend action and seekinternational help should beseriously explored with the newUS administration.

5. Conserving water must become anational duty and not be left to anysingle department or institution. Astrong advocacy program backedby field experience must belaunched immediately.

6. On trans-boundary matters, thereis a need to analyze how India hasmanaged to develop more than 10large dams on its river system andwhat factors and mechanisms ithas in place to harness most of itsexcess water resources. Likewise,neighboring China is putting morethan 100 dams in place under anextremely diverse set ofcircumstances.

7. A sufficiently articulated draftwater policy is in place. It shouldbe made succinct and flexibleenough to serve as a guidingdocument for pragmatic decision-making by incorporating currentthinking on the subject.

8. Investments in water should belinked directly to the benefitsderived from zero carbonemissions in hydro-power


generation. International financialassistance should be sought forthis as the thrust argument in thewake of climate change.

GENERALRECOMMENDATIONS:1. Upon the incorporation of relevant

statements, clauses and articlesinto agriculture and water policydocuments, solicit suggestionsfrom a wide array of stakeholders atfederal and provincial level beforethe finalization of the documents.This is an ideal opportunity toundertake this exercise as theWater Policy exists only in draftform while there is no currentagreed-upon agriculture policy.

2. Hold policy seminars (agricultureand water) at the PlanningCommission and provincialgovernment P&D departments,engaging planners, policy makers,progressive farmers, agribusinessconcerns and decision makersfrom both government andpolitical arenas.

3. Develop a mechanism forcontinued feedback fromimportant stakeholders. This couldbe in the form of a website on«Agriculture and Water Policyunder Climate Change».

4. Initiate action to develop thenecessary legalframework/legislation in responseto climate change-related litigation(national/international) and apprisethe legal community of emergingtrends in international law that willapply to Pakistan under thevarious covenants of treaties andconventions (UNFCCC, Kyoto,Bali) and the need to keep abreastwith such changes.

5. Pakistan is under obligation toproduce various conventioncommunications, e.g. the secondUNFCCC communication, WTOimplementation agreements, etc.Who should be made responsible

for the water and agriculturesectors based on the comparativeadvantage of institutions andknowledgeable manpower? Thereis a need to take a holistic view ofsuch obligations with input frommultiple stakeholders. The presentstate of affairs results in poorrepresentation for Pakistan atinternational forums.

6. Engage the print and TV/radiomedia to educate the public aboutthe challenges of climate changeand facilitate a policy dialogueamongst concerned stakeholders.

7. Put in place an economic, financialand social prediction, projectionand forecasting capability toaddress adaptation measures forclimate change impacts onagriculture and water. Socialresearch organizations shouldengage academia to develop along-term capacity to analyze suchissues and propose prescriptionsin the light of sound data which isrelevant to Pakistani conditions.

8. Allied policies related to drinkingwater and sanitation, inlandfisheries, livestock, forestry andthe environment should also bereviewed to ensure that climatechange is adequately incorporatedand agreed upon by stakeholders.

9. Revisit the existing draft Waterand Agriculture policy (1991)documents and propose muchshorter versions (perhaps lessthan 10 pages), and distinguishbetween a national policydocument and governmentplanning documents.

10. It is recommended that Pakistantake the initiative to draft aNational Climate Change Policyafter widespread consultation withstakeholders from all walks of life.

11. There are major difficulties inobtaining policy-relatedinformation from governmentorganizations. The PlanningCommission may look into ways

to simplify document procurementprocedures and also to develop amechanism to ensure monitoringand evaluation of the policiesbeing implemented. Promotionalbulletins, synthesis leaflets andcase studies should be madeavailable in all local languages formore widespread distribution.

12. Perhaps the single most importantpolicy Pakistan needs is an«Implementation Policy».

WAY FORWARD: The above recommendations suggestthat the way forward lies in movingfrom careful analysis (based on theinternational community concernsraised in IPCC, 2007 and its earlierassessments) and Pakistan»s ownfindings to the establishment of anAdaptations Center that addresses theimpacts of climate change onagriculture and water.

Equally important is the need tounderstand the ecological imbalancesresulting from human activity, whichare often ignored when postulating theimpacts of climate change. There areno «single silver bullet» solutions to theoverall problem of climate change. Thecore problem has to be analyzedpiecemeal with most major hotspotsand agro-ecological zones modeledand prioritized for close monitoringand adaptation. Worldwide signalsreveal that the rate of climate changeincrease is much higher than earlieranticipated (e.g global warming, risingsea levels, precipitation rate, etc.). Thisneeds to be seriously highlighted in alldiscussions and documentation. Theviews of those who dispel climatechange as «climate variability» must belistened to carefully and responded towith scientific data and evidence.

It is equally important for thegovernment to be warned againstimplementing extreme responsivemeasures, such as using high-quality


land to produce bio-fuels, setting upcostly irrigation expansion projectsthat spread water too thin, and poorlychosen policy instruments that haveuncertain results. With dwindling waterresources growth must be vertical andmeasures to achieve this will require adiametrical shift in thinking(knowledge, technology andinvestment) that traditionally focuseson «more and more» unplannedinfrastructure.

Serious consideration must be given tobringing agricultural produce (i.e.vegetables, milk and other high-volume consumption products) nearerto urban centers and perhaps throughskyscraper (vertical) expansion of theagriculture resource base. This isimportant, as almost 60% of

Pakistan»s population will be living inurban areas by 2030 and will causeserious problems of pollution throughovercrowding. This close proximity ofproduction to city centers (urbanagriculture) is an emerging area forresearch and development and canhelp reduce high transportation costs,promote retail efficiencies, and result inimprovement in quality, thus bringingabout major savings in carbonimprints.

Besides expanding our public forestcover, which remains almost 50% underpar, Pakistan can contribute significantlyto reducing CO2 emission problems byexpanding on-farm forestry near waterchannels and on homesteads. Thiscould be an important strategy thatwould mainly require knowledge and

motivating farmers and could result inhuge pay-offs.

Finally, widespread awarenesscampaigns can help spread themessage that past assumptions aboutagricultural productivity and wateravailability may be seriouslyundermined by climate change. Freshthinking, based on sound science, isneeded, where high-cost, first classwater is directly related to high-tech, first class agriculture. This willhold true for both irrigated and dry-land agriculture. This should be theover-riding challenge for policy anddecision-makers and should bereflected in the development resourcesshared between agriculture and water.



PolicyPPurpose: This document fulfills the

contractual requirements of a gap analysisrelated to climate change aspects relevant

to agriculture and water policies commissionedby the International Union for Conservation ofNature, Pakistan and carried out by theconsultant. The study has been carried out in thewake of widespread demand from national andinternational agencies to document how nationalprograms (like Pakistan»s) are proceeding withClimate Change policy incorporation in high-impact sectors.

I. Introduction

Climate Change has gainedwidespread recognition only in the lastfew years despite the fact that thephenomenon has been set in motionby anthropogenic impacts over thepast few decades. It is only in the lastfew years that the threat from climatechange has received attention and theunderstanding is still evolving. So arethe policies and paradigms. The studytakes this lag effect into account andreviews Pakistan»s experiences inaddressing climate change in its waterand agriculture policies as anopportunity and an on-going process.

TOR»STo undertake a detailed gap analysis ofthe Government of Pakistan»s policieson agriculture and water, with respectto climate change.

The study fulfills the following Terms ofReference:● Undertake a detailed search of

literature on the subject andproperly document it in the studyannexures;

● Conduct interviews with relevantprofessionals;

● Review all the agriculture andwater policies that are currently ineffect, either as official policydocuments or in the form ofnotifications, speeches, or in anyother form;

● Identify gaps in the existingpolicies, with respect to theirrelevance to and contradictions ofGoP»s national and internationalcommitments under climatechange;

● Make recommendations on howto address the gaps/anomalies inthe existing policy framework ofagriculture and water, with respectto climate change.

Approach: The study entailed a reviewof the existing literature relevant toagriculture policy, water policy and the

status of various conventions/protocols into which Pakistan hasentered. It identifies the gaps in theexisting documents and makesrecommendations to address them.Specific information relevant to anagriculture policy is rather scant. Anearlier policy framed in 1991 was theonly guiding document along with theNational Commission on Agriculture(1988) report.

While other documents, in the form ofthe Medium-Term DevelopmentFramework, Vision Statement till 2030,Agriculture Perspective and Policies,Powerpoint presentation of SecretaryAgriculture, etc., are more recent, theyare not strictly policy documents.Other, less relevant documents relateto individual policies, such as thefertilizer policy, pesticide policy, creditpolicy and price support policies.

The wheat procurement policy isrevised every year or after every fewyears and is anxiously awaited bymany in the agri-business sector. Inthe agriculture sector there are severalspeeches and notifications, besidescoalition party manifestos, that werealso reviewed and documented. Theinternational literature base onagriculture policy and climate changeis very rich. While it was reviewedwhere it relates to policy aspects itsdocumentation in the report is kept toa minimum to restrict the scope to thePakistan context.

Pakistan has a draft National WaterPolicy - 2005 that served as the focaldocument. In addition, there is theApportionment Accord and the IndusWater Treaty. These, along with someof the major studies undertaken overthe past several years, were reviewedfrom a climate change perspective.

While reviewing both the agriculture andwater policies, important clauses andcovenants relevant to climate change

are noted, gaps in the policies areidentified, appropriate text suggestedto be included is highlighted, andwhere a major paragraph is needed itis blocked as a box.

Pakistan is also a signatory to severalinternational conventions, like theUNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, BasalAgreements, WTO, agreement onTrade Related Intellectual PropertyRights (TRIP»s) and many others. Anupdated listing of these agreements isprovided in Chapter 4.

The report is organized into 5chapters: I. Introduction, II. AgriculturePolicy, III. Water Policy, IV. Conventionsand Protocols, and finally V.Recommendations and Way Forward.

All the major documents that at timesare difficult to trace have beenincluded as annexed material and theoverall documentation has beenorganized into a two-volume report:Volume I is the main report while Vol. IIcontains the appendix material(somewhat voluminous). A separateCD is provided that includes theInternet searches carried out which arerelevant to the topic and the webresources (main reports) that can beused for future reference.

The consultant also met relevantprofessionals in the fields of agricultureand water policy. Ideas were sharedand views solicited for possibleincorporation from a climate changeperspective. Serving as a member ofthe Technical Advisory Panel onClimate Change (Ministry ofEnvironment) and as an expert on theSpecial Task Force on Climate Changeformed by the Planning Commission ofPakistan has also helped theconsultant incorporate the views of ahighly select group of professionalswhere appropriate.



Policy

PPakistan has a vibrant agriculture sector thatcontributes roughly 25% to the GDP,employs 44% of the labor force and its

value to total exports is around 60 per cent. Itsdominant sectors are crops (both major andminor), livestock, dairy and fisheries. The averageannual growth rates are highly variable, averagingabout 4%. The performance of Pakistan»sagriculture, due to close linkages with the textile,sugarcane and allied industries, determines theoverall national economic growth rate.

II. Agriculture

With the looming industrial crisis(almost 60% of industrial units areclosed due to energy shortages andthe negative impacts of global financialrecession/depression), agricultureremains the most significant andimportant component of Pakistan»seconomy and can rightfully be termedits «engine of growth». This is especiallyso in the absence of non-agriculturerelated industries. However, despite itsimportance, the investment in thissector (both public and private) isdismally low. In the 2003 budgetagriculture was only allocated 1% ofthe national budget (Ahmed, 2003).

The year 2008 has been marked byrampant inflation, where the prices ofall major agriculture inputs, particularlyfertilizers, pesticides, water and diesel,have increased by more than 60% .Food-related inflation has averaged32% with wide variations. There havealso been increases in output pricesdue to the international demand andsupply situation. All signs indicate amajor reduction in the production ofcrops, due to rising production costs,a reduction in canal water that isforecast to be about 35-40% (IRSA,2008) and an overall slowdown of theeconomy in line with the overalldepression in the global economy.

The ongoing wheat crisis has its ownsocio-political dimensions. Pakistanproduces about 23-24 million tons ofwheat and the government set itself atarget in 2008 of 25 million tons.However, it quickly revised itsestimates downwards by almost amillion tons and achieving even thistarget seems highly unlikely (seeRafique Goraya, October 23, 2008 atwww.Pakissan), given the acute watershortage, high input prices and thegeneral inflationary trends in thecountry. Last year Pakistan importedalmost 4 million tons of wheat andreceived a wheat grant from the US in

the form of a grain shipment. Given thefact that Pakistan considers itself anagriculture-based economy, thereseem to be significant flaws in itsperformance and there is wide scopefor improvement.

Agriculture policy is a major subjectbut seldom taken seriously inPakistan. The country lacks anacceptable and agreed upondocument termed as an AgriculturePolicy. In the review of SAARC2

country agriculture policy, the onlyreference is to a Pakistan agriculturepolicy matrix (essentially an SARproposal for TA to the AsianDevelopment Bank), while there existclear agriculture policy documents forother countries like India, Bangladesh,Nepal and Sri Lanka (these are placedin annexure and included on the diskto serve as illustrations). This lack ofupdated documentation on anagriculture policy is a matter ofsurprise and a significant gap.

Pakistan has recently set up anAgriculture Policy Institute inIslamabad by merging it with theearlier institution of Agriculture PricesCommission. While the mandate ofthis institution is still evolving, thegovernment does initiate policyactions through various documentslike the 5-year national plans, annualdevelopment plans, Medium-TermDevelopment Framework,establishment of a millenniumdevelopment framework and so forth.It also relies on the agriculture sectorstrategies developed by variousdonors, like the Asian DevelopmentBank, UNDP and the World Bank. Forexample, in 2005 Pakistan receivedtechnical assistance for developmentof a strategy for agriculture (AsianDevelopment Bank, 2005).

While a comprehensive agriculturepolicy document is lacking, there are

some documents that refer toagriculture price support policies, afertilizer procurement and pricing policy,an agriculture credit policy of the ZaraiTaraqiati Bank (Agriculture DevelopmentBank) and so forth.

BROAD GOALS OFAGRICULTUREDEPARTMENT:According to the 1990»s AgriculturePolicy3 document the goals ofPakistan»s agriculture development are: 1. Social equity2. Self reliance3. Export orientation4. Sustainable agriculture5. Enhanced productivity

The document further elaborates thatan action plan is adapted to:a. Obtain a growth rate higher than

population growth to ensure foodsecurity, self-sufficiency andexport surpluses

b. Increase productivity of the cropsector, livestock, fisheries andforestry sectors

c. Evolve an export-oriented strategyto exploit the export potential

d. Conserve and develop naturalresources

e. Institutionalize reforms, promoteinstitutional development andbring social and economic equityto the agrarian structure

f. Focus on small farmers and baraniareas development

g. Achieve full employment in ruralareas through rural agro-basedindustrialization

More recent documents, like theMedium Term DevelopmentFramework 2005-10, highlightstrategies to achieve similar objectivesand targets that could lead to highergrowth rates in agriculture and itsassociated sectors.


2 See SAARC Agrinet for agriculture policy documents of all SAARC countries.3 See National Agricultural Policy, 1991, Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Cooperatives, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. A copy is placed in annexure.

CORE ISSUES FACINGAGRICULTUREThe planning documents refer to coreissues in the areas of land and wateralong with allied input constraints atthe production level. The differencebetween potential yields onprogressive farms and the averagefarms still remains high and narrowingthis yield gap has been a constantchallenge for governments since the1970»s and a core issue for the presentgovernment. Farmers are facing acutedifficulties with the processing,transportation, grading, and marketingof their agricultural produce (crops,fruits, vegetables and livestock).Agriculture faces major issues fromheightened competition fromneighboring countries like China andIndia. WTO regimes now requireopening up Pakistani markets toforeign producers. With decliningtrends in trade and highly variable andless profitable agriculture, keepingyouth in agriculture is becoming aformidable issue. Water-logging andsalinity continue to remain sore pointsof Pakistan»s agriculture, and climatechange is likely to further impactproductivity.

Institutional issues related to theabsence of a consistent policy onagriculture and a lack of pragmaticland reforms continue to bedeterrents to progress in theagriculture sector in Pakistan, with itsmuch skewed distribution of landownership. The broader issues ofagriculture are now common to SouthAsia and in many cases a regionalapproach, especially in marketing andtechnology transfer, can help addresscross-sectoral problems likeagriculture-water-energy-market-technology. For more details on aSAARC exposition see4.

CHALLENGES OFAGRICULTUREAccording to a presentation bySecretary Agriculture, 2007, the keypolicy goals of Pakistan for itsagriculture are: ● Diversification into horticulture,

livestock and fisheries● Narrowing the yield gap● Focusing on small-holders, who

are increasing in number andimportance

● Demand-driven research and newtechnology

● Extending the irrigation networkand ensuring higher efficiency inirrigation

● Ensuring fair prices to farmers● Creation of a market infrastructure

and continuing development● Compliance with WTO regulations,

especially those relating tointernational quality standards,and getting a larger share in theinternational market

These statements, coupled with arecent vision statement by the Ministry

of Agriculture, set the stage foragriculture policies that contribute tothe overall economy, are participatoryin nature, and put special focus onenhancing agricultural productivity.Also see Ahmed (2008) on Agriculture:the issues and challenges5.

The Vision Statement6 2030 declares,≈Our vision is an efficient andcompetitive sustainable agricultureensuring food security and with ability tocontribute to the economic developmentand poverty alleviation in Pakistan.∆

This Vision Statement makes specialmention of climate change and itsrelationship to agriculture, whilecautioning against the impact of globalwarming on certain crops, such aswheat, whose productivity is likely todecline, by some estimates, by morethan 10% (GCISE, 2008). A positiveoffshoot noted in the document is theincreased water availability due toglacier melt till 2030.

This document sets the stage forincorporating the crucial climate change


≈Global change, especially in biophysical environment, is impacting the lives ofall inhabitants. Ramifications of global warming are having disastrousconsequences in the form of drought, floods, low and high temperaturesextremes and hurricanes. Recent data reveals that 1990s was the warmestdecade, and 1998 was the warmest year. Unprecedented heat wave in 2004resulted in large number of deaths.

Similarly, high intensity typhoons in the USA and the Tsunami in Indonesia, theprolonged and severe drought in Southern Pakistan confirm a trend in globalclimatic change. In our region, the monsoon season has been shifting both inintensity and time resulting in heavy losses to national economies. Therefore,comprehensive and careful research studies are needed to understand the natureand the extent of this climatic change and develop plants and animals types andfarming systems, which are less vulnerable to such climatic changes.

Models show that Pakistan will grow warmer by 1.0 degree C by 2030; thismay require extra water for wheat. We will also need wheat varieties which aremore drought as well as more flood resistant. On the whole, wheat yield islikely to go up, even though its geographical distribution will change, while ricewill not be affected.∆

4 Science-based agricultural transformation towards alleviation of hunger and poverty in SAARC countries New Delhi, India, March 5-7, 2008.5 A good set of popular articles on agriculture written at Tando Jam Agriculture University can be found at www.SAU.org.6 A copy of the detailed statement relevant to agriculture is placed in annexure.

concerns into policy debate andplanning documents. The relevantsection of the Vision Statement 2030 onclimate change is reproduced above:

This Vision Statement recognizes theimportance of climate change and howit will contribute to productivity gainsand losses. The rather narrowperspective that glacier melt willincrease water resources and thusenhance output is far-fetched. So far,glacier melt has merely resulted in theformation of glacier lakes. However, apart of the water from glacier lakesdoes find its way into rivers,contributing to groundwater recharge,and to storage in a series of dams andbarrages on the River Indus. A recentsurvey by ARC (See R Roohi, 2007)revealed that there are over 5000glaciers in their inventory and over 52large lakes. The number of lakes islikely to increase over time. Not allwater stored in these lakes will showup as increases in river flows.Moreover, even if there is anappreciable gain expected in riverflows, unless storage is put in place toconserve this water, it is unlikely thatthere will be any appreciable gains.Furthermore, water is not the onlyconstraint - its economical applicationto agriculture requires the associatedinputs of fertilizer, seed, expertise,processing, marketing, etc. Unlessthese inputs are in place and thefarming community finds enterpriseprofitability sufficiently motivating, thedesired results may not be achieved.

PARTY MANIFESTOSRELATED TOAGRICULTUREThe present government is a coalitionof the Pakistan Peoples Party, PakistanMuslim League (Nawaz Group) and theAwami National Party (ANP) and somesmaller parties. Their Party manifestosrelevant to agriculture and water arereproduced below and provide theoverall political economy framework

for understanding what thegovernment plans to do for agricultureand water during its tenure.

The Pakistan Peoples Party, thedominant party in the present coalitiongovernment, has the following statedpolicy goals as per its electionmanifesto of 2008:

Pakistan Peoples PartyAccelerating Agriculture and RuralGrowth: Agriculture is the mainstay ofthe National Economy of Pakistan. As afarmer-friendly party, the PPP will helpfarmers boost production and obtainfair prices. Farmers got the best priceswhen the PPP was in government. Thekey to agricultural exportable surplusesis to augment the output per acre andproductivity per farmer.

Aggressive Agriculture and RuralDevelopment will be another centralpillar of our growth and PovertyReduction strategy. Our efforts will befocused on improving productivity andcrop diversification, agriculturalmarkets and exports, and specialprograms for small farmers to reducerisks faced by them. Moreover, withadvances in technology the desert canbe made green.

The Pakistani peasant, mired inpoverty and debt, has to be rescuedfrom the morass of despair by a boldpolicy which ensures that the privatesector provides key inputs andservices - such as credit, fertilizer,pesticides, extension, marketing,

seeds, tractors - in a timely mannerand at competitive prices.

Special attention would be given toencouraging Banks to expand rurallending, while maintaining sound creditpolicies.

Special capacity-building programs foragricultural support services will be putin place to revitalize key institutions ofresearch and extension.

A sustainable program of farm tomarket roads will be put in place toensure that perishable and valuableagricultural products like fruits,vegetables and milk can reach marketsto enable better incomes for farmersand for the benefit of urban consumers.

Peoples Party commits itself to providingall surplus electric power during off peakhours for tube-wells free of cost.

Ensuring Water Security: The PPPgovernment is committed to ensuringwater security for irrigation andavailability of clean drinking water.

Pakistan is now a water scarce country.Scarcity will increase with time, with aburgeoning population and climatechange. The PPP will put in place abold and comprehensive program toensure water security for futuregenerations. Key elements of thestrategy would consist of: waterconservation, additional storages,farmer-managed irrigation systems,rehabilitation of the ageing canal and


Comment: The Climate Change aspect does not seem to get visibleprojection in the PPP Manifesto. The focus is on addressing the farmers»productivity issues and on spurring rural development. Its rather traditionalapproach recommends investing in agriculture inputs (fertilizer, seed, tractors,credit) and rural infrastructure development. The party»s commitment toaddress the energy crisis is important as this constraint is constrictingagricultural productivity and leading to despair amongst the farmingcommunity. The policy seems to be based on an expansionist view, with theidea of bringing more area under production and spreading the already thinwater base to larger areas by expanding the irrigation network.

barrage system, an effective drainagesystem, enhancing water productivity,strengthening water rights andprotecting the lower delta eco-systems.

In respect of the Arid Zones, aprogram will be developed to harnesswater from rain and flash floods,promote drip irrigation and crops thatneed less water. Clean drinking wateris a basic need. The PPP shall create alegal framework to ensure availabilityof clean drinking water for all.

PML (Nawaz)The PML Manifesto drafted in 2007spells out its goals and objectives foragricultural development in Pakistan:

Agricultural and Rural Development Pakistan Muslim League (N) believesthat prosperous agriculture is the realbasis of national prosperity anddiversification of the rural economy byexpanding non-farm rural employmentis critical for the alleviation of poverty.To accelerate the pace of agriculturaland rural development, the PakistanMuslim League (N) shall:● Turn agriculture into a fully viable

economic industry by changingthe policy framework and terms oftrade in favor of agriculture.

● Focus on the small farmer as thereal backbone of the ruraleconomy and assure his access toknowledge, inputs and markets.Development of the livestocksector will be given high priority.

● Revitalize the cooperativemovement to meet the real needsof the rural population by settingup agri-service corporations withmajority equity of the poor andmanaged by professionalmanagers.

● Reform the agricultural creditsystem to ensure that at least 50%of the total is provided to the smallfarmers and land owners are ableto obtain credit on the basis of themarket value of the land ratherthan outdated produce index units.

● Move rapidly towards nationalself-sufficiency in oil seeds.

● Convert Pakistan into a large netexporter of food and high-valuecrops and remove restrictions onagricultural exports.

● Building consensus on the basisof the 1991 Water Accord on thedistribution of Indus System toallow new water projects to beundertaken and extension ofirrigation facilities to additionalareas.

● Ensure full utilization of availablewater resources by expanding theon-farm water managementprogramme.

● Initiate schemes for cropinsurance through privateinsurance companies to protectthe farmer against the vagaries ofweather.

● Encourage ecologically sounddevelopment policies to preserveand develop the country»s naturaland forest resources to counteractthe impact of global warming.

● Provide incentives for farmers toadopt social forestry on acommercial scale rather thandepend on restrictive laws for thispurpose particularly in borderareas.

● Expand the programme to fightthe cancer of water-logging andsalinity.

● A major programme of aquiferrecharge in arid and semi aridareas of Cholistan, Thar andBalochistan to ensure that waterflow from tubewells installed inthese areas can be sustained.

● Immediate updating of therevenue and property recordsusing Information Technology will be undertaken. Based on the information so generated«benamis» can be done awaywith, property rights of femalemembers protected and access to credit by the poorassured.

● Policy shift in agriculture fromcommodity based agriculture toproduct based agriculture. As anexample 22 products can beproduced from corn.

● All agricultural researchorganizations will be completelyrevamped to ensure that thebenefits of research actually reachthe farmers.

● Agricultural education in generaland curriculum of agricultureuniversities in particular will bemodernized.

● Mafias and monopolies in case ofmajor agriculture products will bedone away with by putting inplace appropriate agriculturalmarketing strategies.

Under its land reform programme, PML(N) will reclaim and irrigate additionalland for allotment to landless haris andtenants. It will also undertake a landconsolidation programme to createviable units for modern agriculture.

Awami National PartyThe Awami National Party, essentiallyrepresenting the NWFP, elaborates itsgoals for agriculture and irrigation in itsManifesto of 2007:


Comment: The salient aspects of the PML (N) policy are its attention to theconcerns of small-holders and its focus on high-value products. Tradefeatures high on the Manifesto»s priorities and so does a strong businessorientation. A research-based policy agenda is recognized as the way toprogress in the agriculture sector. Land reforms are aimed at granting rightsand entitlements to the landless and the tenants who till the land. Again, theconcerns of global warming and climate change are overlooked as asignificant challenge to the sector.

Agriculture■ Agriculture accounts for 25% of

the Pukhtunkhwa's GDP. 47% ofthe Province»s labor force isemployed in this sector and 70%of population subsists onagriculture. Hence, agriculturaldevelopment will be a top priority.Similar initiatives will be made inother provinces, as well.

■ Livestock is a major contributor inthis sector with 12% share of theprovincial GDP. ANP will givespecial attention to this sectorbecause of its large scale impacton poverty reduction and growth.

■ Poultry farming has made positivegains in Hazara. Similarly, the saleof dairy products and live animalsfor urban consumption are anadditional source of income forthe farmer. ANP will takemeasures to build on thisstrength.

■ About 2.1 million hectares ofpastureland is availablethroughout Pukhtunkhwa tosupport livestock and farming; thispotential shall be exploited to thebenefit of the farmers. The samewill be done in other provinces, aswell.

■ Vast potential exists fordiversification of agriculture intohigh value cash crops like fruits,vegetables and flowers as well asedible oil crops like olives.Incentives will be given to growthese commercially.

■ Major reforms will be brought todevelop forests becausePukhtunkhwa has 40% ofPakistan's forestry cover.

■ Pukhtunkhwa produces 49.8% ofPakistan's maize and 71.9% of itstobacco. Downstream industriesbased on these products will bedeveloped.

■ ANP shall take measures toProvincialize the excise duty ontobacco.

Hydel Generation & Irrigation■ ANP will pursue the development

of irrigation projects at the federaland provincial level to utilize about2 MAF of water that is stillavailable to it for development.

■ ANP will continue to opposeprojects which do not bring anyeconomic benefit to the people ofthe province and which endangertheir livelihoods, their lands andtheir environment.

■ ANP will strive to make Power aprovincial subject as it had been inthe pre One Unit period.

■ Power is sold by WAPDA at aprice, which is substantially higherthan the cost of production. Thisvitiates the comparativeadvantage of the province, whichis a major producer of hydelpower. The distribution ofelectricity should remain with theProvince.

■ ANP will encourage investment insmall run of the river hydel projects.

AGRICULTURE POLICIESAND CLIMATE CHANGEFew of the documents produced bythe government of Pakistan andreviewed herein contained any specificmention of the important and emergingrelationship of agriculture and climatechange. The World Bank»s report onAgriculture 2007 specifically mentionsthe challenge agriculture faces fromclimate change. It states, ≈The GCISErecognizes the importance ofagriculture being the single mostimpacted sector from climate changechallenges.∆ In its report (of 2007) itpoints to the impact of global warmingon wheat and rice crop yields. Astemperatures rise beyond 2 degrees,climate change will reduce yields by asignificant 10-15%, and the southernpart of the country will be moreseriously affected. Warmer and longerdays in the northern mountains willresult in a 10-15% increase in yields.But since the northern areas contributeless than 2% to total wheat productionno significant impact is expected.

Another review study by Dr. RakhsanRoohi, 20077 looks at various researchstudies conducted on climate changeand its impact on water resources,biological indicators and agriculture,and highlights the glacier phenomenonin considerable detail.

In reviewing the challenges toagriculture the Asian DevelopmentBank»s report, titled «Climate ChangeADB Programs √ Strengtheningmitigation and adaptation in Asia andPacific, 2007», states that the ADBapproach is to incorporate the climatechange perspective in all its coreprojects, especially those in energy,water, agriculture and environment.This brochure provides a goodoverview on how the ADB viewsclimate change and its long-termdevelopment implications.


Comment: The Manifesto of the Awami National Party concerns itself with thewelfare of the NWFP province and aims to address the productivity issues oflivestock and high-value horticulture and vegetable crops. The stress is onwhat will be addressed, without any mention of how it will be accomplished.The climate change perspective is missing and widespread expansion oflivestock in already degraded lands is proposed as a counter-droughtstrategy. As the climate change perspective is overlooked, some of the moreambitious statements may have to be toned down in the light of theadaptation strategies that will be needed.

7 See R. Roohi, 2007. Research on global changes in Pakistan, Mountains witnesses of Global Change. By R. Bundo, G. Tartari and E. Vuillermoz (Eds)Elsevier. USA.

Another widely cited report by theWorld Bank, «Pakistan»s WaterEconomy Running Dry (2006)», in anallusion to climate change impacts,states that:

The IPCC synthesis report of 2007,while documenting the challenges toagriculture, highlights food security asan invariable outcome of climatechange. In the case of cereals theimpacts are largely negative, havingwidespread consequences for the poorin the developing world. For Asia thereport states:

≈By the 2050»s freshwater availability inCentral, South, East and South EastAsia, particularly in large rivers basinsis projected to decrease.

● Coastal areas, especially heavilypopulated mega delta regions inSouth Asia, East and South EastAsia will be at the greatest riskdue to increased flooding in thesea and in some mega deltas,flooding from the rivers.

● Climate Change is projected tocompound the pressure on naturalresources and the environmentassociated with rapidUrbanization, Industrialization andEconomic Development.

● Endemic morbidity and mortalitydue to diarrheal disease primarilyassociated with floods anddroughts are expected to rise inEast, South and South East Asiadue to projected changes in thehydrological cycle.

The IPCC synthesis report, whileexhibiting caution and talking in termsof probabilities, is quite clear on thenegative impacts of a temperature riseon overall cereal production. Its findings

are consistent with other studiesconducted in Pakistan and the generaltrends being witnessed in the plains.The year 2008 is a good example,where temperatures during Novemberand December are higher than averageand there is little feeling that winter hasset in. The higher temperatures arenegatively impacting the wheat cropand certain fodder crops like lucerneand berseem. Rabi (winter) crops willrequire urgent changes in the dates ofplanting and the associated applicationof inputs (fertilizer, weedicides, andinsecticides). This will inevitably changethe labor demand schedules in ruralareas. All these changes will necessitateadjustments at the grass-roots level.The systemic implications of suchchanges will have significantrepercussions on the overall crop-livestock linkages in its spill-over effectson Kharif (summer) crops.

The National Communication onClimate Change indicated in a recentreview8 that the following impacts onagriculture will occur in Pakistan: ❑ Shift in Spatial Boundaries of

Crop Potential Areas: The globalclimate change will affect thegrowing season length of cropsdue to higher temperature,reduced soil moisture, alter thestages of plant growth withaccelerated growth early in theseason, affect the partitioning and

quality of biomass, affect croppests and diseases and entailspatial shifts in potential areas ofagricultural crops;

❑ Changes in ProductivityPotential: The quality and quantityof crop yield will be affected byclimate change in two ways: a)direct effects from changes intemperature, water balance, CO2

concentrations and extremeevents; and b) indirect effectsthrough changes in distribution,frequency and severity of pest anddisease outbreaks, incidence offire, weed infestation, or throughchanges in soil properties;

❑ Changes in Water Availabilityand Use: The increase intemperature has direct effect oncrop evapo-transpiration and lossof soil moisture. The increase incrop evapo-transpiration whencombined with decrease inprecipitation in the rainfedenvironments resulted intodecrease in crop evapo-transpiration due to limitedavailability and use of soilmoisture by crops;

❑ Changes in Cropping Pattern: Arise in temperature and reductionin rainfall could increase the netirrigation water requirement ofcrops, thereby forcing farmers tomake changes in croppingpatterns to adjust to climatechange

❑ Changes in Land Use Systems:The global warming, climaticextremes and CO2 concentrationswould lead towards changes inland use systems due to changesin the growing season of crops.The climatic changes in aridclimates would result in increasedsalinity and/or water logging;which would certainly demand forintegration of forestry andaquaculture with the crop basedfarming systems.


8 Also see Task Force on Food Security Sub-Committee on Water and Climate Change, Government of Pakistan, 2008.

≈Climate change will lead to rapidly decreasing glacier resources that may fallas much as 40%. In the first 30-40 years there will be large volumes of waterreleased from these glaciers (see sobering fact #7 climate change). Obviouslythese significant changes in the natural water resource will have widespreadimpacts on Pakistan»s agriculture primarily dependent on the Indus Basin.∆

The World Bank»s report on the Stateof Agriculture (2007)9 notes: ≈Climatechange will have far reachingconsequences for agriculture that willdisproportionately affect the poor.Greater risks of crop failures andlivestock deaths are already imposingeconomic losses and underminingfood security and they are likely to getfar more severe as global warmingcontinues. Adaptation measures areneeded urgently to reduce the adverseimpacts of climate change, facilitatedby concerted international action andstrategic country planning. As a majorsource of greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions, agriculture also has muchuntapped potential to reduceemissions through reduceddeforestation and changes in land useand agriculture practices. But for thisto be achieved, the current globalcarbon financing mechanism needs tobe changed.∆

Newspapers in Pakistan have reportedstatements by officials of the presentgovernment that are related to climatechange and agriculture. Some of thepolicy guidelines evolved in responseto climate change are also highlighted.

In a message to the Food andAgriculture Organization on theoccasion of the World Food Day, onOct. 16, 2008, President Zardari saidthat this year»s theme, «World foodsecurity: the challenges of climatechange and bio-energy», covers all themain issues faced by agro-basedeconomies.

He said climate change had emergedas a grave challenge to thesustainability of agricultural productionand achieving food security. Droughtcycles and erratic changes intemperatures have badly affected theperformance of crops and livestocksub-sectors.

He said last year»s wheat crop wasaffected by the incidence of frost atthe earlier stages of crop growth andhigh temperature stress at the cropmaturity and grain formation stages,causing production losses.

Likewise, addressing a seminar held inthe National Agriculture ResearchCentre on the eve of the annual WorldFood Day, the Federal Minister forAgriculture, Nazar Mohammed Gondal,said, ≈Our vast and vibrant agriculturesector offers enormous opportunitiesto hundreds of millions of rural poor tomove out of poverty. We, therefore,believe that agriculture led growth ineconomy would help in raising farmincomes, lowering food prices andgenerating surpluses for exports.

≈Ensuring Food Security is the mostimmediate challenge before thenation,∆ he averred. ≈Greater focus hasbeen placed to enhance agriculturalproductivity through farmmechanization and adoption of goodagricultural practices.

≈Government is implementing a two-pronged agricultural strategy includinggenerating growth by bringingadditional area under the plough andnarrowing down productivity gapbetween progressive and subsistencefarmers,∆ he told the participants ofthe seminar.

He said that the price of fertilizer,which is a major input, had been

rationalized with an upfront subsidy ofRs. 32 billion and agriculture credit,which is the lifeline of the rural sector,had been jacked up from Rs 200 billionto Rs 250 billion. He also mentionedthat the government had introduced aCrop Insurance Scheme with a built-inbias in favor of small land-owners.

He went on to say that in order toensure food security and to improvethe productivity of small farms, thegovernment had initiated a phased«Special Program for Food Securityand Productivity Enhancement ofSmall Farmers» which will start bycovering 1,012 villages in all fourprovinces and other areas and extendto 13,000 villages by the year 2015.

This program aims to enhance the cropproductivity of small farmers at thevillage level and support them instarting income generation activities inthe areas of livestock, fisheries and highvalue crops on a sustainable basis.

On another occasion the Minister forAgriculture declared, ≈We arecognizant of the seriousness of climatechange and its devastating impact onour agriculture. Seventy-three percentof Pakistan»s arable land is irrigated.Water for irrigation is entirelydependent on glacier melting. Thissource is likely to be disrupted byclimate change, and other negativeconsequences. We have, therefore,actively participated in the globaldiscussions on Climate Change.∆


9 Also see this report for an international perspective on how agriculture is changing in response to the changes in markets, climate, poverty and otherchallenges.

Food insecurity and social disharmony! All South Asian countries aregenuinely worried by the medium to long term impacts of climate changethat is likely to reduce agriculture productivity, especially on small farms that constitute almost 80% of all farms. This loss in productivity will furtheraccelerate rural poverty, bring about migration to already overcrowded urbancenters, re-settlement and widespread social disharmony and conflict. Signsof such happenings are already showing up in several parts of Pakistan. The recent wheat crisis is just one example that has impacted the very fabricof Pakistani society.

Gondal said that the governmentintends to launch a comprehensiveprocess for achieving a betterunderstanding of the impacts ofclimate change as well as how thesecan be overcome through mitigation,adaptation, the use of science andtechnology and the integration ofclimate imperatives in our economicdevelopment efforts.

The Prime Minister of Pakistan, YousafRaza Gilani, has underlined in severalspeeches the need to pay greaterattention to agriculture to help meet thechallenges of climate change, energy,and the world financial crisis. He hasemphasized the fact that lack of foodsecurity is considered to be a majorthreat to the very survival of this country.

In a speech on the occasion of WorldFood Day, on October 16, 2008, thePrime Minister said the governmenthad initiated efforts to revitalize theagricultural sector in the short andmedium terms.

≈It is heartening to know that Pakistanjoins the international community toobserve the World Food Day (WFD)every year. Today this event is beingobserved worldwide to highlight therole of international agencies, UnitedNations Organization, NGOs, agri-scientists and farming community toaddress the issues related to thetheme of WFD this year «World FoodSecurity: The Challenges of ClimateChange and Bio-energy»,∆ he said.

The Prime Minister further observed,≈Climate change affects agriculturalperformance by altering the availabilityof water, land, biodiversity andterritorial ecosystem, and alsoenhances the uncertainties throughoutthe food chain, from yield to tradedynamics, among countries andultimately the global economy. Bio-

energy places further demand onagricultural products as well as on thenatural resources.∆

In his address at the inaugural sessionof the 15th SAARC Summit in Colomboon August 2, 2008, the Prime Ministerchose the theme «Let us make SouthAsia the granary of the World»..≈The SAARC region is blessed withrich natural resources,∆ he declared. ≈A fifth of humankind lives here. Wehave a vast pool of talent. We havefertile lands and developed irrigationsystems. Our societies are agrarian.We export agro-based products to theworld. Yet, the region faces foodshortages. We must address this issueon priority. We should share and learnfrom best practices in the region andbeyond, modernize our irrigationsystems, use appropriate technologyand expand our agricultural researchand resource base.∆

In an address to the nation on July 19,2008, the Prime Minister, lamenting thefood situation and the overalleconomic crisis in agriculture inPakistan, said, ≈Being an agriculturist, Iam fully aware of the problems of thefarming community. I regret that anagrarian country like Pakistan is facingthe problem of food shortages.∆ Healso highlighted the overall wheat crisisand spelled out in detail the measuresbeing taken by the presentgovernment to address thesechallenges. Similarly, in his address at

the launch of «The Indus EntrepreneursIslamabad Chapter» in June, 2008, hestated, ≈We need to devise, adopt andimplement a comprehensivedevelopment strategy that ensuresincreased productivity in agriculturesector, on modern and innovative lines.Our young entrepreneurs can beinstrumental in «green and whiterevolution».∆

The Planning Commission hasrecognized the likely impacts ofclimate change on agriculture withspecial reference to glacier melt. In2008 it organized a workshop titled«Glaciers behavior under ClimateChange and its impacts on Agriculturein Pakistan» which reviewed the watersituation and its impacts onagriculture. This was perhaps the firstgathering of scientists and policymakers to debate the glacier retreatissues and identify institutions that canplay a role in monitoring glacierrecession and help devise strategiesfor combating predicted watershortages. Other South Asiancountries, such as Nepal, Bhutan andIndia, and neighboring China, havealready sounded alarm bells on therapid recession of their glaciers10.

In a recent statement to the Press, itsScientific Advisor, Dr. Ishfaque Ahmed,said the Planning Commission plans tolaunch a task force. This task force willassess the scope of the impact onPakistan»s economy due to climate


Deforestation: Pakistan is one of the most forest-poor countries in theworld. By some estimates, out of the 4.8% claimed forest cover only 50% ofthis land area is actually stocked with forest. While widespread potentialexists for rapid transformation of on-farm forestry around water channels andhomesteads, thereby rapidly enhancing the forest cover, practical policiesand programs have been sadly lacking in this area. UNFCCC COP-14, held inPoznan, Poland in 2008, gives special attention to dramatic increases inforest cover as a vital strategy to combat climate change from reducedcarbon emission.

10 Good introductory material on what is happening in the region on glaciers can be found in Bajracharya, S. R.; Mool, P. R. and Shrestha, B. R. 2007.«Impact of Climate Change on Himalayan glaciers and glacier lakes - Case Studies on GLOF and associated Hazards in Nepal and Bhutan» Published byICIMOD and UNEP. Nepal 2007. and Jianchu, et al. «The melting Himalayas» ICIMOD technical paper.

change; devise guidelines/measuresfor mitigation and adaptation to copewith the challenges; evaluateinstitutional weaknesses and suggestmeasures for strengthening thecapacity of relevant institutions;promote programs for advocacy andawareness; mainstream climatechange into national and sector-wisepolicies; provide guidelines for thereduction of greenhouse gas emissionsand environmental pollution, as well asguidelines for the development ofClean Development Mechanism-basedprojects to avail internationalopportunities for financing.

Climate change is irreparably harmingPakistan with its tremendous social,environmental and economic impacts.The main challenges are reducedagricultural productivity, humanmorbidity, and stressed use of naturalresources. Changing weather patternsand energy shortages are heavilytaxing the country»s meager forestryresources. Tree cutting is on the riseand carries on unchecked without anyproper realization of the long-termramifications of this rapidly depletingresource. Agricultural productivity inPakistan is being affected due tochanges in land and water regimes.This is negatively affecting agriculturalproductivity by altering establishedbio-physical relationships, such ascausing changes in the growingperiods of crops, alterations in thescheduling of cropping seasons,increased crop stresses (thermal andmoisture stresses), changes inirrigation water requirements,alterations in soil characteristics, andincrease in the risk of crop pests anddiseases.

South Asia is particularly susceptibleto the effects of climate change. Muchof the population of these countrieswill eventually be displaced by risingsea levels. Moreover, the drinking

water for much of India and Pakistancomes from the Himalayan,Karakoram, and Hindukush glaciers,which are already beginning to meltfrom warmer temperatures. Heavilydependent on agriculture, South Asianeconomies are most vulnerable toclimate change11.

There is a close link between theclimate of an area and the occurrenceor severity of some diseases and otherthreats to human health in that area.Moreover, several serious diseasesappear only in warm areas. Warmertemperatures can increase air andwater pollution, which in turn has aharmful effect on human health. Themost direct effect of climate changewould be the impact of hottertemperatures themselves. Extremelyhot temperatures increase theincidence of human deaths. Otherimpacts follow more intricatepathways, such as those that give riseto water, food, vector and rodent-borne diseases.

During the past century the averageglobal temperature has risen by about1.0C, with much of that increaseattributable to the burning of fossilfuels and deforestation. Globaltemperatures are projected to increasefurther by between 1.4C and 5.8C by2100 and to continue to rise long afterthat. The predicted consequences

include faster glacier melting, a rise insea levels, a shortage of fresh water,increased droughts and floods, morefrequent and intense forest fires, moreintense storms, more extreme heatepisodes, agricultural disruption, thespread of infectious diseases, andbiodiversity losses (IPCC, 2007).

During recent months the governmenthas announced several policymeasures to address the issue of foodproduction.

ATTENTION TO MAJORSTAPLE PRODUCTIONThe present wheat crisis has taken aserious turn, with highly inflationarytrends seen in wheat flour prices. Forthe next crop season the Pakistangovernment has announced a wheatsupport price of Rs 625 per 40 kg. Ithas also imported 2.5 million tons ofwheat to meet the shortage and islikely to receive an additional trancheof US$ 200 million worth of wheat fromthe US to meet this emergencysituation. Mismanagement of thesupport price has often resulted inwide supply responses.

REPEALING FERTILIZERPRICE HIKEThe prices of fertilizers, especiallyDAP (selling at Rs 3200-4000 in theopen market), puts them out of the


Ugly rice gluts and unpaid farmers!Pakistan had an excellent rice crop in 2008, while the world witnessed poorrice crops. This presents a rare opportunity to take advantage of theinternational market situation. The opening price for quality rice was Rs 1600and at season»s end the price fell to below Rs 1000. The majority of farmershave not been paid to date for the rice they sold through beoparis. Ricemillers are exploiting the situation to their fullest advantage. The end result isa large disgruntled farming community. A similar case is that of the sugarcanecrop, where farmers have long complained of late payments. Thegovernment»s role as a fair regulator seems to be undermined when mostproducers of high delta (water-consuming) crops suffer as a result ofmismanagement and exploitation by a few.

11 Also see Managing Climate Change by Sadiq Ahmed and Praful Patel, South Asia Region, The World Bank - originally published in the Daily Star,November 28, 2007.

reach of the common farmer. This ispartly due to inflation (higher materialand gas prices) and partly to thedepreciating value of the Pakistanrupee, which went from a stable Rs 65to a dollar to hit peaks of Rs 86 to adollar in November. Fertilizer, frombeing a key input in the production ofall major cereals, cotton andsugarcane, is beginning to lose itsparity value and a rapid decline in itsusage is predicted, due to lack ofavailability and high prices. This willimpact the target of 25 million tons setfor the current wheat crop. Thegovernment has already scaled downthis target by 800,000 tons. With theadded complication of a tight watersituation, it is highly unlikely that eventhe revised target will be met.

HIGHLY SUBSIDIZEDTRACTOR SCHEMEThe government announced a greentractor scheme in 2008, to helpfarmers overcome farm machineryconstraints, offering tractors through alottery at 50% off the regular price. Ithas also embarked on disbursing asum of Rs 70 billion during 2008 asagriculture credit through theAgriculture Development Bank andother banks.

DISTRIBUTION OF LANDTO PEASANTS ANDTENANTSThere is a program to distributegovernment land to peasants andlandless groups of cultivators. This willexpand the land base presently notunder agriculture. It will also spreadeven thinner the dwindling waterresources, which are already atcritically low levels. Transfer payments,be they in the form of free land or cashincome transfers, are only temporarymeasures of financial relief. They areseldom sustainable or productive.

ELECTRICITY AND FUELPRICE CRISISMANAGEMENTElectricity and fuel price managementare sore points that have become

major national issues. The electricitycrisis has resulted in alarmingly highlevels of load-shedding (12-15 hours aday). This is playing havoc with theagriculture sector and has broughtindustry almost to a standstill. Whilethe international price of oil, afterhitting a record US$ 146/barrel, hasbounced back to US$ 43/barrel, thegovernment has been unable to reflectthis sharp decline in internationalprices in the diesel component. Smallformal adjustments fail to jump-startthe economy and obviate thesluggishness in the agriculture sector.As diesel is a key determinant ofagricultural productivity (tillage,harvesting and tubewell irrigation), itspresent high cost is placing constraintson agriculture by way of reducedapplication of tube-well water on mostcash crops.

MARKETING AND TRADEREFORMS

Attention to High-GrowthSectors like Livestock andHorticultureThe Medium-Term DevelopmentFramework lays special stress onimproving the performance ofhorticulture and livestock, which areidentified as high-growth sectors.Their contribution to total GDP fromagriculture is almost 50%. Several


Green Tractor Scheme Providing tractors at subsidized rates or throughlottery draws helps only those who receive such prizes. In reality, adding moretractors to the system does not increase agricultural productivity as mostvillages already have excess tractor power, often lying idle. The lack ofmodern implements or implements for hire at village level remains afundamental constraint. Farmers often think bigger is better and tractors with75 plus horsepower are brought on to farms. Their operational costs are sohigh (diesel @ Rs 60/l) that these machines become uneconomical. A majorityof tractors are sold just outside the factory gates and the cash is pocketed.These tractors often end up in haulage work and not in agriculture. The entirepolicy needs to be reviewed. By cutting down on unnecessary heavy tractorsthe government can make significant improvements in the environment andcontribute to carbon emissions mitigation.

Benazir Income SupportTransfer payments have long been viewed as poor options for povertyalleviation and generally considered bad policy. How then has the governmentembarked on a Rs 40 billion program, which the Prime Minister announced inDecember would be beefed up to Rs 100 billion? The program aims to give Rs2000 to every family earning less than Rs 5000 per month every two months.This is intended to benefit about 3-4 million families. How much does Rs 1000per month buy for a family? The current price of a 100-kg bag of wheat is Rs 2500. How long can these transfer payments be sustained and who reallybenefits? Despite the best of intentions, there is considerable room for masscorruption and embezzlement. A far better option for poverty eradication is tocreate job opportunities. As the Chinese say, «Give a man a fish and you feedhim for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime!

new projects on livestock are beingimplemented to alleviate the meat andmilk shortages in the country. The government in a recentnotification (2008) has created aseparate Ministry of Livestock to caterto the affairs of livestock developmentin the country.

In an international meeting held atGeneva in June 2008, the Minister forAgriculture, Nazar Gondal, pointed outthat climate change is a gravechallenge that will negatively impactPakistan»s agriculture and tradeprospects. Elaborating on thesituation, he said (box below):

This review of government circulars,notifications and newspaperstatements clearly shows that thegovernment»s policies:

1. Aim at protection of small-holderagriculture (almost 70%) andensuring that farm productivity isincreased at a rate that iscommensurate with thepopulation growth rate of thecountry.

2. Recognize that there are threats toagriculture from climate changethat can have negative impacts,but pay little attention to theopportunities that climate changemay offer in some areas.

3. Focus on Food Security as apriority area and propose short-term measures with little concernfor a long-term course of actionbased on sound modeling andanalytical analysis.

4. Fail to adequately reflect thechanging realities in internationaltrade and the international

commitments under WTO towhich Pakistan is a signatory.

5. Fail to acknowledge or argue theposition that Pakistan is not amajor player in carbon emissionsbut is being penalized for theactions of others in the past(Western Industrialized Countries)and more recently of thoseemerging as expandingeconomies (India and China).

6. Only view policy from a domesticperspective, ignoring the newopportunities of leasing out largechunks of land that can besubmitted to high-tech agriculture(i.e. by Middle Eastern countries)on a long-lease basis. Maldives isconsidering outright purchase ofland, fearing its land mass will besubmerged by rising sea levelscaused by climate change.

7. Favor maintaining the status quoand do not promote a long-termgrowth strategy that will transformtraditional agriculture into a high-tech business enterprise which willsignificantly help reduce rural andurban poverty.

This review clearly shows that climatechange will impact agriculture in thefollowing ways:● Reduce yields of all major cereals

in the southern plains with minorimprovements in yield in thenorthern areas.

● Lead to significant shifts incropping patterns and croprotations and significantly modifythe crop calendar in response toclimate change.

● Reduce the overall agriculturalgrowth rate, causing widespreadpoverty amongst alreadymarginalized and disadvantagedgroups.

● Lead to land degradation andcreation of «hot spots» that havelarge populations.

● Increase the demand foragricultural produce in urban areas


Credit and Insurance: Discussing the topic of credit, Zaka Ashraf, ChairmanZarai Taraqiati Bank (Agriculture Development Bank), said that the governmentwas planning to provide more than 70 billion rupees in credit this year. Thebank was also studying ways to help with crop insurance and was evaluatingprojects that could be directed to growers in both irrigated and non-irrigatedareas. While in the past dairy was a minor activity of the bank, he said it wasnow considering expanding its loan facilities for livestock and dairy, which areemerging as significant contributors to agricultural growth.

≈Pakistan is cognizant of the seriousness of climate change and its devastatingimpact on our agriculture, which is largely irrigated by river water supplied byglacier melting. This is likely to be disrupted by climate change, among othernegative consequences. We have, therefore, actively participated in the globaldiscussions on Climate Change. The Government intends to launch acomprehensive process for achieving a better understanding and overcomingthe impact of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, the use of scienceand technology and integration of climate imperatives in our economicdevelopment efforts. The success of efforts being made by Pakistan and otherdeveloping countries and those expected of them for dealing with theimportant and inter-connected issues of food and energy security and climatechange clearly depend on external support. Developed countries, the UNsystem, the World Bank and regional development banks and other institutionsmust provide assistance. In this regard, we wish to commend the World Bank,the Asian Development Bank, the FAO, World Food program, UNICEF, otherUN agencies including the Global Environment Facility and UN EnvironmentProgramme for their initiatives and efforts to assist developing countries»endeavors to cope with the food, fuel and climate nexus.∆

due to a shift in rural-urbanpopulations and the creation ofmega-cities. This trend willintensify the need for «urbanagriculture», which has beenneglected in the past. Such shiftswill impact the income of areasthat have traditionally maintaineda comparative advantage in theproduction of fruits, livestock(meat & milk), vegetables and fish.

● Change the type of investmentneeded even to maintainagricultural production at presentlevels. Huge amounts ofinvestment will become a pre-requisite to procure technology,build a market infrastructure andensure asset formation, like neverwitnessed in the past.

● Climate change-related energycrises will have direct linkages toagriculture mechanization.Renewable energy resource shiftswill force farming communities toinvest in energy-saving techniquesand radically change theprofitability of agriculture.

● Lead to many new and unforeseensituations for which no plans arein hand.

Thus, it is imperative that theseaspects of climate change are builtinto the policy documents and it isproposed that the following statements(or similar ones) be included in thecore documents:

GENERAL STATEMENTOF CLIMATE CHANGENEEDED IN POLICYDOCUMENTSIn the agriculture policy context, ageneral statement must be added thatreflects the climate change scenariofaced by Pakistan. It should alsoinclude the following statements: A. Agriculture policy will implement

measures that help preserve ouragriculture, protect theproductivity and sustainability offarm communities and ensureeconomic welfare by adapting tothe challenges posed by climatechange.

B. Agriculture policy will addressclimate change issues amongstfarms, agribusiness entities,producers and consumers byproviding information and know-how on finding ways and means toadapt to changes byshifting/substitution to new crops,crop rotations, livestock species,fisheries and forestry that ensuresustained growth on our farmsystems, and by showing sensitivityto greenhouse gas emissionsbased on adaptation approachesthat build on local know-how.

C. Climate change will cause a shiftin the comparative advantages ofcertain productive enterprises.Research organizations andeconomic analysis institutions willbe provided support to evaluatethe postulated impacts on each of

the dominant enterprises withinthe 8 climatic zones and proposemodifications in enterprise mix,technology, input use andincentives. Modeling policyproposals will help analyzepresent, future and predictedimpacts under various scenarios.

D. A monitoring and evaluationmechanism will be put in place toensure widespread compliancewith conventions and agreementsrelevant to agriculture (UNFCCC,Kyoto Protocol, WTO, BasalAgreement, etc.) entered into bythe Government of Pakistan.

E. All national policies on agriculturewill be developed throughstakeholder participation andspecial attention will be given toprovincial government viewpointsto promote close harmonybetween the federal governmentand the provinces, as agricultureis essentially a provincial subject.

INCORPORATION OFSPECIFIC PROVISIONS INDOCUMENTSIt is recommended that the following orsimilar insertions be incorporated intocurrently operational documents toreflect the climate change aspects:

MEDIUM-TERMDEVELOPMENTFRAMEWORK (2005-10) 1. Page 252: Although the availability

of water has been a seriousconstraint, further complicated byclimate changes in the form ofrising temperatures, reducedprecipitation and extreme eventssuch as droughts and floods

2. Page 252: Objectives and Targets:Put in place adaptation measuresthat better prepare the agriculturesector to meet the challenges ofclimate change and enhance foodsecurity


Urban Agriculture - Mitigating Carbon EmissionsA horizontal expansion of agriculture requires large expenditures on truckingthe produce to major consumption centers (mega centers). The whole chain ofmarketing requires a major consumption of fossil fuels, which leads to globalwarming and changes in climate. A strategy assuming prominence in the Westis to produce vegetables, livestock and fruits near urban centers. There iseven the concept of «skyscraper agriculture», whereby high-tech farms areraised in the shape of skyscrapers, and urban consumers shop near theirhomes and offices, thus cutting down on unnecessary travel. Since almost60% of Pakistan»s population will be living in mega cities this idea should beincorporated into agriculture policy

3. Page 254: Strategies ºthegovernment will chalk out amedium to long-term plan toaddress climate challenges bydelineating actions required in eachof the 8 agro-ecological zones

4. Page 254 Item xiv: Therequirements of WTO will befulfilled keeping in mind thelimitations and challenges beingposed by climate change, globalwarming and changingcomparative advantages so as tomaintain the competitiveness ofagricultural products

5. Page 255 Para 2: Biotechnologyintroductions under climatechange adaptation plans willrequire further negotiations underthe Trade Related IntellectualProperty Rights (TRIPS).

PERSPECTIVE PLAN ANDPOLICIESThe only place climate change ismentioned in this important documentis on page 78 (see annexure) andreproduced hereunder:

vii. Global Climate Changes● Development of agricultural

meteorology laboratories networkfor database for forecasting,modeling and simulation of theeffects of changing climate oncrop yields/cropping patterns fordevelopment of early warningsystems.

● Effect of global climate change oncrop yields.

● Effect of global climate change onforests and rangelands.

● Greenhouse gases emission fromagricultural lands and animalfarms: quantification and controltechnologies.

This list of research areas is ratherlimited and fails to recognize thewidespread impact climate change willhave on Pakistan»s agriculture.

According to IPCC (2007), the yield ofcereal crops could go down by morethan 20-40%, creating immense foodshortages. Similar impacts areenvisaged for other, non-cereal crops,livestock, fisheries, fruits andvegetables in the irrigated areas, drylands and delta regions of Sindh.Besides yield decreases, the quality ofproduce is also likely to be impactednegatively.

A dramatic shift is needed in the presentresearch goals to ensure that futurebreeding programs are more concernedwith how to maintain yield or even withsacrificing yield in favor of moredrought-tolerant varieties. The commontrend is to breed for higher yield.

Research and adaptation-relatedapplied trials are needed to addressforest, inland fisheries and high-valuehorticulture crops in order to determinetheir production thresholds under avariety of climate change scenarios.Likewise, the potential waterrequirements of each farm enterprisemust be calculated, explained tofarmers and brought into policy debate.

An adaptation plan for agricultureneeds to be developed and it must beensured that all stakeholders acceptownership. Since agriculture isessentially a provincial subject, it isimportant that all the provinces arekept abreast of state-of-the-artknowledge on climate changes,updated on commitments being madeunder international climate changeforums (i.e. UNFCCC) and coordinatedefforts made to mitigate and adapt toits vagaries. Most of theimplementation and prescriptivepolicies must be developed andowned by the provincial governments,which are responsible for their design,implementation, gains/losses, andoutcomes and must accept theeventual responsibility for all decisions(right or wrong), etc.

VISION STATEMENT 2030There is a brief mention under«Challengesƒmitigating climatechange» and a rather half-heartedstatement on climate change withoutany clear direction on what the visionis or where it is supposed to take thecountry (see Page 69).

The Vision Statement should make astrong case for agriculture under aclimate change scenario. Pakistan is asignatory to the Kyoto Protocol andUNFCCC, along with several otherconventions related to environmentalsustainability. The Vision Statementshould reflect our commitment to theseconventions, highlighting the measuresPakistan is taking to address the issuesof greenhouse gas emissions andCDM, and explicitly state that whilePakistan is low on the emissions ladder(145th), it is 12th on the list of countriesthat will be most impacted by climatechange12. While Pakistan plays its rolein reducing emissions as a responsiblemember of the internationalcommunity, it will at the same timerequire huge financial resources totackle the problem of negative impactscaused by climate change. The VisionStatement must reflect the harshrealities of financial crisis, the globalimpacts of uncertain prices andmarkets and the country»s strategiclocation between China and India,which are rapidly emerging economieswith high carbon emissions. Likewise,Pakistan must state its anticipated risksand uncertainties given its strategicgeo-political situation.

ANNUAL DEVELOPMENTPLAN (2008-09)There is not a single mention of theinfluence of climate change in theannual development plan. Nor is thereany allocation of funds needed toaddress climate challenges throughresearch, institutions, development of


12 See Environment Minister»s Speech at UN September 24, 2007 http://www.g77.org/statement/getstatement.php?id=070924.

adaptation plans, or even debateamongst stakeholders13. The proposedprojects lack a cross-sectoral themeon the likely impacts of climate changeon agriculture, perhaps the sector ofPakistan»s economy most significantlyimpacted. No link is established withconventions or protocol commitmentsPakistan has made in the internationalarena. The only discussion that isincluded is on WTO and why the talksare deadlocked (Western countries are reluctant to eliminate subsidies attheir end).

It is important to include in thisdocument a recognition statement ofthe emerging problems associatedwith climate change and drawattention (as noted earlier) to thechallenges and what Pakistan hasdone to date in terms of theestablishment of various task forces,committees and research centers (SeePakistan»s initial communication toUNFCCC, draft reports of the taskforce on water and agriculture, 2008;Report on Food Security, 2008). Inreviewing each of the crops it shouldalso allude to the climatic factors thatare impacting productivity (e.g. thefrost that hit the wheat crop in 2007and the high temperatures during theripening stages of the crop that led toa reduction in grain formation andconsequently yield). Similarly, it shouldlink climate factors that have impactedcotton yield by changing the weed andpest complex. The emerging threat ofyellow rust on wheat from Yemen alsoneeds to be factored in by linking it tothe changing patterns in wind,cyclones, etc.

In future, plans or revisions must beintroduced in new projects whichaddress the «mitigation and adaptation»options for the important agro-ecological zones.

AGRICULTURE POLICY:GAPS AND WEAKNESSESThe above review clearly shows thatthere exist significant gaps in therecognition of a climate changeperspective in the planning documentsthat relate to Pakistan»s agriculturepolicy. Firstly, as noted, none of thedocuments after 2000 recognizeseither the negative or positive aspectsof climate change as drivers of thepolicy instruments and prescriptions.Secondly, the National Commission onAgriculture concluded its deliberationsin 1988 and its findings were meant toserve as a broad review of theagriculture sector with detailedrecommendations on tackling thechallenges of agriculture. These arealmost 20 years old and in want ofimmediate attention and revision.Thirdly, 5-year plans, strategydocuments, and the Medium-TermDevelopment Framework generallyoverlooked the debate on climatechange and are thus seriously deficientin this respect. Where they do mentionclimate change, it is often unclear howclimate change is included as a cross-sectoral issue that impacts all aspectsof agriculture enterprise production,marketing, processing andtransportation.

It has also been shown that mostdocuments highlight only the currentscenario for climate change inPakistan and perhaps make somestatements on its impacts in rathergeneral terms. The policy documentstend to regurgitate this informationwithout properly digesting theunderlying significance, which shouldbe matched by knowledge andexperience at the grass-roots level.Only then can policy prescriptionscarry enough weight to receive broaderand pragmatic attention.

In several instances the policies tend tobe counter-intuitive to climatechallenges. Without questioning wherethe extra water from glacier melt isgoing, naïve statements are made thatconsiderable water resources would beavailable as a result of enhanced riverflows. The need to delve deeper intothe actual realities must be recognizedand the rhetoric sifted to get to the realfacts. Science is always good and, insome instances, more of it is better.However, policy is seldom based onscience alone. In Pakistan planning isoften based on «second-bestinformation». Combining the bestavailable information with the likelyoutcomes, based on scientificknowledge and experience on theground, is the best option to narrow theinformation gaps. In many instances,filling those gaps would be too costlyand result in limited pay-offs.

As Pakistan has signed severalinternational conventions, it isimportant that the policy documentsreflect these commitments and theactions it has taken to address thecovenants of the conventions, i.e.reduction in greenhouse gases, CO2emissions, etc. Likewise, there is adistinct gap in documenting examplesof climate change in Pakistan»sagriculture that are location and time-specific. A few studies on wheat andrice, based on secondary time seriesdata and regional climate changemodels, are helpful but require farmore down-scaling to be useful inpolicy planning. Civil societyorganizations and NGO»s interact withvarious stakeholders in the agriculturesector. Their experiences also need tobe better documented and madeavailable to the policy makers. Anothersignificant gap is the exclusion of aclimate change perspective ashighlighted by donor agencies (i.e. the


13 One of our reviewers noted that there are two Carbon Sequestration projects listed in the National Budget Allocation for 2008-9 (PC1 approved earlier).


World Bank, Asian Development Bank,UNDP, USAID) in projects beingnegotiated or implemented in Pakistan.This needs to be rectified to ensurethat upcoming projects meetinternational standards and complywith the commitments Pakistan ismaking under internationalconventions.

Analysis and experience about climatechange is often restricted to crops inPakistan. It is high time that policies

related to livestock, inland fisheries,floriculture and horticulture are alsobrought into the mainstream of thedebate and made synchronous withthe overall thrust of agriculture policy.Provincial development plans need tobe made consistent with the climatechange concerns of the respectiveprovince and attention must be givento the need to inject knowledge that isrelevant to the provincial situation.More specifically, the concerns of theagro-ecological zones must be

addressed, while taking into accountthe inventory of skills, assets andresource endowments that can bebrought to bear in adapting to climatechange vagaries (threats of drought inBalochistan and upper Sindh). It wouldbe appropriate to ask questions aboutfood security policy in emerging urbancenters and the impacts of climatechange in re-settlement, and use theanswers to formulate policy directives.


PolicyGAP ANALYSIS

WWater is an essential input intoagriculture, which utilizes almost 90%of the total water resources. The

remainder is utilized for drinking, cooking andsanitation, industry, environmental flows (thoughnot officially acknowledged), etc.

Pakistan»s water resources are primarilydependent on precipitation, snow melt and glaciermelt. Our rivers are closely linked to varioussources of precipitation in the major rivers.

III. Water

Pakistan has a large volume ofdocumentation on water, developedover the 60 years of its history, and aproud record of management of theworld»s largest contiguous irrigationsystem. Numerous studies providethe necessary information aboutPakistan»s water sector, includingNazir Ahmed (1993) Water Resourcesof Pakistan; Revised Action Plan forIrrigated Agriculture by WAPDA, 1979;and several others. Likewise, theSCARP documentation illustrates howPakistan met its water-logging andsalinity challenge, which few thoughtcapable of resolution (see runningcommentary in Prof. Abdus Salam»sbiography14). While old, these studiesdo bridge the data gap till the 1980s.Following this period, several goodanalytical studies have beenconducted, so the water sector is welldocumented and sufficientinformation was available to draft awater policy.

Water in Pakistan is a rathercontentious issue, primarily because ofits dependence solely on river flows(and underground aquifers) as sources.Historical water rights are guardedreligiously and there is an abundanceof distrust and mistrust. Debate anddiscussions on water often lead topolarization and politicized bickering.The end result is that plenty ofpolicies, action plans and targets areevolved, but seldom leave the filingcabinets of policy makers. The gaps ininformation are as much to blame forthis as the distrust of data and thesource of information. When these twofactors are combined, they result inresistance to viable plans and projectsthat normally seem to be in thebroader interest of the nation. Thisenvironment of half-hearted decisionmaking is taxing Pakistan so badly thatits future, or even its very existence,may be compromised when the effectsof Climate Change set in fully.

Policy dialogues are quite commonwhen it comes to water, and often theyare between those who are already«converted». The issues are discussedin the parliament; the president andprime minister often make highly vocalstatements; expensive, top-of-the-linestudies are conducted; stakeholdersget a reasonable opportunity tocritique these studies; and the mediamakes its due contribution in bringingthe issues and solutions to theattention of the general public. Still,this sector constitutes perhaps themost critical area, in which reforms arerepeatedly proposed but seldomimplemented. Paradoxically, there areoften serious anomalies in the datathat is cited to support or refute agiven viewpoint. The source of data isoften restricted to one particularorganization (WAPDA). Therefore,developing trust in this institution andits allied organizations has become amajor area of concern, which unless


Table 1: Distribution of Water in Main Rivers of Pakistan

% of IRSinflows

% Seasonal DistributionDominant Source in

SummerDominant Source in

WinterSummer(Apr-Sep)

Indus 44 86 14 Snow/Glacial melt Winter Rainfall +Baseflow

Chenab 19 83 17 Snow/Glacial melt + Winter Rainfall +Monsoon Baseflow

Jhelum 16 78 22 Mainly Snow melt + Winter Rainfall +Monsoon Baseflow

Kabul 16 82 18 Snow/Glacial melt Winter Rainfall +Baseflow

Others 15

Winter(Oct-Mar)

14 A good description of how Pakistan requested the US government for assistance to solve this problem is provided in «Science for Peace and Progress -Life and Work of Abdus Salam», edited by Anwar Dil, published by Intercultural Forum Takshila Research University, San Diego, 2008. pp301-302.

resolved will continue to impedePakistan»s progress in this crucialsector. With advanced techniques ofdata gathering, including satelliteimagery, GPS, remote sensing andsatellite-monitored telemetry, etc., thistask is achievable. Much of the debateon the reliability of data and the lack oftransparency has led to unresolvedissues and a lack of consensusamongst the upper and lower riparianson the Indus River infrastructureprojects.

Since 2000, there have been severalstudies conducted on the water sector.The Pakistan Water Partnershipproposed the Water Vision 2025 andfollowed it up with «The Framework forAction (FAA) for Achieving the PakistanWater Vision 2025» in 2001. Thisdocument became the frame ofreference for much of the debate onthe water sector and showed howdifferent stakeholders viewed itsdevelopment. While concerns aboutclimate change were noted briefly asan economic driver, much of the detailwas left out from the documentationfor want of a clear direction. However,despite this shortcoming, thedocument gave civil society a clearerunderstanding of the link betweenclimate change and water resources.

The «Water Sector Strategy of theAsian Development Bank, 2002» is acomprehensive study that builds onthe Water Vision 2025 and some earlierstudies by WAPDA and the FloodCommission. It is comprised of 5volumes and takes an in-depth look atthe water issues, needs, strategies andaction plans. The Strategy is aforerunner to the 2005 National DraftWater Policy, reviewed in detail later inthis report.

Technical Assistance HighlightingPolicy Issues, relevant to Balochistan»swater situation, is available on the

Internet (Shahid Ahmad, 2008). ThisADB-financed project has producedmore than 33 policy briefs pertainingto the core policy issues facingBalochistan and some of generalrelevance to the whole of Pakistan. Asynopsis of titles of some of the briefsproduced by the study team is givenbelow15:

POLICY BRIEFINGS❑ Policy Briefing #1 √ Irrigation and

Energy Nexus √ Managing energyand water use for reducingsubsidy for electric tubewells inBalochistan

❑ Policy Briefing #2 √ Micro-irrigation and role of private sectorfor innovative development √ Needfor policy shift in Balochistan

❑ Policy Briefing #3 √ Issuesrestricting capping of subsidy andstrategy for introducing the smartsubsidy in Balochistan

❑ Policy Briefing #4 √ Payment ofelectric bills and recovery ofarrears in Balochistan √ Farmers»response and future options

❑ Policy Briefing #5 √ Effect of farmsize and landholding on equitabledistribution of subsidy fortubewells in Balochistan

❑ Policy Briefing #6 √ Buildingtechnical argument for cappingtubewell subsidy in Balochistan:Part-I. Analysis of tubewelldatabase and state of servicedelivery by QESCO

❑ Policy Briefing #7 √ Freezingnumber of agricultural tubewellseligible for subsidy in Balochistan:Issues and way forward

❑ Policy Briefing #8 √ Assessmentand recovery of Abiana in theIndus basin canal system ofBalochistan √ A Way Forward

❑ Policy Briefing #9 √ Training needsassessment and formulation oftraining plan for IWRM policysupport in Balochistan.

❑ Policy Briefing #10 √ Sustainingrural water supply schemes inBalochistan: Issues, Policy andReforms

❑ Policy Briefing #11 √ Performanceof Diesel- and Electric-operatedTubewell Farms and Issue ofStrategy √ Lessons from Farmers»Survey

❑ Policy Briefing #12 √ New Visionand Strategy for Managing Waterand Energy Use in TubewellIrrigated Agriculture ofBalochistan, Pakistan

❑ Policy Briefing #13 √ Frameworkfor Targeting Subsidy and CostingHigh Efficiency Irrigation Systemsunder the National Programme

❑ Policy Briefing #14 √ Building HighPerformance KnowledgeInstitution for Planning of WaterResources in Balochistan

❑ Policy Briefing #15 √ CostEffectivity of High EfficiencyIrrigation Systems: Guidelines andPolicy Issues for the ForthcomingProjects in Pakistan

❑ Policy Briefing #16 √ PersistentDrought of Balochistan andImpacts on Water Availability andAgriculture

❑ Policy Briefing #17 √ RestructuringNational Agriculture ResearchSystem (NARS) √ the Case ofNARS Balochistan (NARS-B)

❑ Policy Briefing #18 √ Growth ofAgricultural Tubewells and State ofEnergy in Pakistan √ Is Subsidy aSustainable Option for HelpingFarmers?

❑ Policy Briefing #19 √ MoghaCommand Management forEnhancing Water Productivity andSustainability of Indus BasinCanals in Balochistan

❑ Policy Briefing #20 √ Sailaba andKhushkaba Farming Systems ofBalochistan √ Policy Support forChanging Land Use and to AvoidInfrastructure Damages Caused byFlash Floods


15 A disk detailing all the outputs of the TA Grant Project can be obtained from Dr Shahid Ahmed, Member Natural Resources, PARC, Islamabad. Thecirculated disk is dated 10th November, 2008.

❑ Policy Briefing #21 √ WaterProductivity and EconomicEfficiency of Tubewell IrrigatedFarms in Balochistan √ Issues andPolicy Reforms

❑ Policy Briefing #22 √ AbianaAssessment and Recovery in theCanal Commands of Balochistan √Policy Issues and Reforms

❑ Policy Briefing #23 √ SustainableDevelopment of Rural Water SupplySchemes in Balochistan, Pakistan √Key Issues, Scheme SelectionProcess and Policy Reforms

❑ Policy Briefing #24 √ Karees √ ACultural Heritage of Natural andAgricultural Sectors and anInterminable System of HarvestingGroundwater in Balochistan

❑ Policy Briefing #25 √ Restructuringand Strengthening of WaterResources Planning, Developmentand Monitoring Directorate ofIrrigation and Power Department,Balochistan

❑ Policy Briefing #26 √ PromisingCrops and Water Efficient CroppingPatterns for Irrigated FarmingSystems of Balochistan, Pakistan √Key Issues and Policy Reforms

❑ Policy Briefing #27 √ RenewableEnergy Resources √ Assessmentand Utilization for Multiple WaterUses in Rural Balochistan

❑ Policy Briefing #28 √ PakistanWater Apportionment Accord:Water Entitlements and Key Issues√ National and BalochistanPerspectives

❑ Policy Briefing #29 √ WaterApportionment of Hub Dam: WaterConflict and Strategy forResolution

❑ Policy Briefing #30 √ ConjunctiveWater Use and Management forMinor Perennial IrrigationSchemes in Balochistan √ KeyIssues and Revised Strategy forInvestment

❑ Policy Briefing #31 √ Re-assessment of Water ResourceAvailability and Use for the MajorRiver Basins of Balochistan √

Study Findings, Policy Issues andReforms

❑ Policy Briefing #32 √ PotentialRecharge Zones of Over-drawnBasins of Balochistan, Pakistan

❑ Policy Briefing #33 √ Social andFarmers» Institutional Impacts onWater Rights, Allocation Rules andAvailability on Lower Riparian inSpate Irrigation of Balochistan

The Pakistan Asia Pacific NetworkStudy on Climate Change and WaterResources, 2003 was an initial attemptto highlight the water scenario in SouthAsia. This study includes detailed dataon all South Asian countries andhighlights water resource challenges inthe context of climate change (see«Climate Change and Water Resourcesin South Asia» - proceedings of YearEnd Workshop Kathmandu, 7-9January, 2003 Mohammed et al). Thereare several compendium studiespublished in the Science and CultureJournal India and in the form of a booktitled «Climate and Water Resources inSouth Asia: Vulnerability andAdaptation» which cover field studiesconducted in Mirpurkhas (Sindh) andBahawalpur (Punjab) Hydrological Units.

A report on the Tarbela Dam andrelated aspects of the Indus RiverBasin Pakistan by the WorldCommission on Dams (2000) provideda useful data synthesis on the historicexperiences of large dams in Pakistan.It also cautioned about the likelihoodof changes in long-term river flows andtheir repercussions on Pakistan»seconomic performance.

The World Bank report, titled «PakistanWater Economy Running Dry, 2005»,presented a lucid analytical review ofthe water situation. The core study and18 different background papers,including some on large dams,agriculture, and the environment,highlight the magnitude of the globalwarming phenomenon and its likelyimpact on the water resources of

Pakistan. It paints a rather bleakpicture of its catastrophicconsequences and urges a pragmaticapproach to the problem. This widelycited report is highly critical of theways in which the water sector isbeing managed and warns about alooming crisis that will be furtherexacerbated by climate change.

A recent report (2008) by theGovernment of Pakistan, titled DraftReport «Impact of Climate Change onWater Sector», by the Water SectorWorking Group on Climate Change,has been produced by the Ministry ofWater and Power. It provides detailedcoverage of Pakistan»s vulnerability toclimate change, adaptation strategies,and comments on the national plan ofaction, and lists a national financialinvestment portfolio within the contextof water and climate change. It alsoincludes a set of policyrecommendations and starts by statingthat ≈the main objective of climatechange policy relating to Water sectoris to assess the likely impact on waterresources and to formulate wellthought-out adaptive strategies forvarious sub-sectors of water to facethe future challenges of Global ClimateChanges∆. The document notes thefollowing salient objectives of thepolicy:● Develop an infrastructure designed

to store more water for utilizationduring lean flow periods. To thatend, there is a greater need thanever before to develop and forge anational consensus on establishinga cascading system of dams onthe river Indus, utilizing all theavailable sites to discharge ourliability to coming generations

● Expedite work on the constructionof mega dams, small dams andwater-harvesting projects. Thefinancing factors impeding theconstruction of mega damsshould be addressed on a warfooting, and all available avenuesof funding should be explored


● Stop the wastage of water andresort to efficient water use

● Develop an appropriate rainwater-harvesting system commensuratewith local needs

● Construct a series of waterstorage reservoirs for the retentionof flood waters for their effectiveutility

● Protect life, property andinfrastructure from floods througha comprehensive and long-termflood protection plan. Develop aflood response plan and makesure that the general public isaware of this plan and, ifnecessary, the public awarenesslevel should be raised through theuse of electronic and print media

● Develop and implement aregulatory framework forgroundwater use. Encourageusers to employ the latesttechniques for the extraction andskimming of fresh groundwaterwithout disturbing the underlyingsaline water

● Establish an institution to carry outresearch into the future availabilityof water, especially under ClimateChange conditions. As the climatechange phenomenon is slow andlong-term, it requires a long-termcommitment

● Establish linkages betweendifferent water sectororganizations for data andknowledge sharing

● Ensure the water rights of theprovinces in accordance with the1991 Water Accord

● Establish a database system forwater sector information

● Develop public awareness aboutthe importance of water

It appears that WAPDA»s response isinfrastructure biased and most solutionsto climate change and water involveexpansion of the infrastructure. Thepolicy objectives seem to ignore thedemand management side of water andthe necessity of making the institutionaland managerial improvements soessential to conserve water. Likewise,the document is silent on how rightsand entitlements to water would changeas the climate changes.

Similarly, there is also a report undercompletion by the sub-group on Waterunder the Food Security study by thePlanning Commission (2008), as wellas a report by the Task Force onClimate Change, headed by Dr Ishfaque Ahmed, that is underpreparation and likely to be availableby end-December or early 2009.

INCORPORATION OFCLIMATE CHANGEASPECTS INTO COREDOCUMENTSPakistan»s draft water policy and thewater apportionment accord are twocore documents that need to beupdated by including the climatechange perspective. While the IndusWater Treaty is an internationalagreement, there is still room to view itin the light of the evolvingcircumstances of climate change..

The draft water policy has beenpresented to the cabinet for approvalbut there are some controversialviewpoints about infrastructureprojects that are still open fordiscussion and in need of widespreadacceptance and ownership within thegovernment, public, private and civilsociety.

The draft policy document is beingreviewed from the perspective of itsshortcomings and gaps. Whereappropriate, comments have beeninserted and suggestions made aboutthe inclusion of possible text relevantto climate change concerns.

PAKISTAN WATERPOLICY 2005In its preamble the policy notes that by2025 the population of Pakistan willincrease by almost 50% and thereforethe demand for water will increaseproportionately.

Agricultural yields have stagnated orslowed down. Consequently, thegrowth rates for most crops will showlow or neutral growth. It is unlikely thatgrowth rates for major crops likewheat will maintain a 3% annualincrease to keep pace with the highpopulation growth rate. However, thelivestock and horticulture crop sectorsare reported to show high growthrates in the range of 6-7%. Thiscombined effect could help stabilizethe overall agricultural growth rate(Mellor, 2008 personalcommunication).

In its needs assessment the policy alsorecognizes deteriorating water qualityas a significant issue. The NationalWater Policy aims to achieve thefollowing objectives:● Efficient management and

conservation of existing waterresources

● Optimal development of potentialwater resources


Commit your waters or lose them!On several occasions WAPDA»s former chairman has reiterated that Pakistanneeds to conserve its water surpluses (about 25 MAF), which run uselesslyinto the sea. Since water is fast becoming short every neighboring country iscarefully watching how Pakistan is managing its scarce water resources. Whilethere is rightly a hue and cry over India»s water projects on the Chenab andJhelum rivers, the total water involved is only 0.2 MAF. The urgency of thesituation merits immediate attention at the highest level of government policyformulation.

● Steps to minimize time and costoverruns in completion of watersector projects

● Equitable water distribution invarious areas and canalcommands

● Measures to reverse rapidlydeclining groundwater levels inlow-recharge areas

● Increased groundwaterexploitation in potential areas

● Effective drainage interventions tomaximize crop production inwater-logged areas

● Improved flood control andprotective measures

● Steps to ensure acceptable andsafe quality of water

● Minimization of salt build-up andother environmental hazards inirrigated areas

● Institutional reforms to make themanaging organizations moredynamic and responsive

Comment: As can be noted from theabove policy objectives, therecognition of the climate changephenomenon is totally missing. This is a serious flaw and in recentconferences and discussions, bothnationally and internationally, climatechange has been acknowledged as aserious threat to Pakistan»s water resources. The section onobjectives should be revised and astatement to this effect should beincorporated.

In this identification of core issues thedocument is silent regarding theimpacts of global warming andchanging climates. As can be seenbelow, apart from noting the high levelof variations in the availability of waterresources, the document does notidentify any cause (i.e. globalwarming), in the absence of which itdoes not adequately reflect therapidly changing impacts on waterresources.

KEY ISSUES● Growing need for water to meet

the requirements of a rapidlygrowing population, and socio-economic demands

● Very high variations in theavailability of water resources, interms of both space and time

● Reduction in the availability ofsurface water due to silting of dams

● Lack of proper maintenance of thecanal system, leading tounsatisfactory service

● Water-logging and salinization ofareas near various canals of theIndus Basin System

● Lack of commitment on the partof various organizations about theneed to create drainage networksas a part and parcel of theirrigation network

● Over-exploitation of groundwaterresources, rendering large areasout of the reach of poor farmers,and leading to depletion ofgroundwater aquifers

● Pollution of aquifers, due to thelateral movement of saline wateror the upward movement of highlymineralized deep water

● Lack of disposal of saline effluents● Contamination of river water, due

to the influx of industrial waste,household waste water and fieldoverflows contaminated withfertilizers and pesticides

● Inadequate involvement ofconsumers

● Frequency of floods and drought ● Lack of an inter-provincial

consensus on developmentstrategy and mistrust betweenprovinces over the equitabledistribution of water

● Proper pricing/valuation of water● Quality of water in all sub-sectors

Comment: The climate changeperspective is indirectly noted in regardto the high variation of water resources,water-logging and salinization of

various command areas and thefrequency of floods and drought. Whilenot explicit, the document indirectlyacknowledges that the key issues havea close relationship with climate as asignificant driver.

A projected consequence of climatechange is the higher frequency andintensity of floods and drought (seeIPCC, 2007).

Likewise, extreme events, such ashurricanes, storms, cyclones, tsunamis,rising sea-related water intrusions/risein sea levels, etc., and the probability oftheir occurrence, are all consequencesof climate change and should be soidentified in the issues.

The draft policy document alludes in itsreviews to the Dublin Principles, whichset the stage for water resourceanalysis. The document includes basicdata on water, which is not reproducedhere16. Seldom does a policydocument contain such detailed dataand action plans, an obvious anomalythat needs to be corrected in the finalversion as it gains acceptance. A policyis typically a concise statement of thebroader guidelines to achieve a set ofdesired goals and objectives within aclearly existing and anticipatedenvironment. An action plan details theactions required to achieve the desiredtargets. The rest should form part of animplementation plan.

SIGNIFICANT CROSS-SECTORAL RECOGNITIONPakistan»s agriculture depends onartificial irrigation and almost 90% ofthe agricultural output originates fromirrigated areas. The policy notes thatirrigation has to be accorded thehighest priority.

The policy also notes that bothirrigation and agriculture are provincialresponsibilities, while the federal


16 Also see presentation on Water Policy by Shahid Ahmad included in the disk outputs of TA Grant Project - (TA-4560 PAK).

government has the responsibility tomonitor, conserve and develop waterresources for the use of the nation.

The policy document took into accountrecent vision statements, planningcommission reports, and draft materialsfor new initiatives in the pipeline.

FUTURE WATER VISION -YEAR 2025Reviewed the historical performance ofthe water sector, including the successand failures of past strategies, and wasalso based on consultations withrelevant stakeholders at the federaland provincial level.

Reviewed the international context ofwater policies and agreements. Thethree detailed volumes on which thedraft policy is based include:● Volume I. Analysis of Key Issues● Volume II. Water Resources of

Pakistan: Availability andRequirement

● Volume III. Institutional Aspects

INCORPORATION OFCLIMATE CHANGEASPECTS INTO SPECIFICPOLICY AREAS OF THEDRAFT POLICY

Policy Section 1: IntegratedPlanning and Developmentof Water Resources1.1 Incorporate clause relevant to

Climate Change1.5 Prepare and adapt conservation

and water managementstrategies, including publicawareness programs to reducewater requirements (withoutcompromising productivity)across sectors

1.10 Assess and monitor the impacts ofclimate change on water resourcedevelopment and account forthese impacts in future waterdevelopment strategies

1.2 Needed incorporation of ClimateChange in this section (proposed)a. Accord high priority to analyzing,

quantifying and projecting theimpacts of glacier melt and themedium to long-term impacts ofprecipitation, based on advancedregional Climate Change Modelsand the experiences emergingfrom other South Asian countries.

b. Highlight the need for immediateand urgent storage capacity onthe Indus and in the form of smalldams that can store the projectedlarge water flows likely to comefrom increased glacier and snowmelt and erratic and intensemonsoon activity. At the sametime, accept that reservoirs arewater security instruments andneed not be filled to their fullcapacity as argued by some lessinformed stakeholders.

Policy Section 2: Irrigated Agriculture 2.1 Incorporate clause relevant to

Climate Change2.15 Encourage farmers to grow low

delta crops with higher returns2.16 Promote and support research

and development of waterconservation techniques andimproved irrigationmethodologies

2.2 Needed incorporation of ClimateChange in this section (proposed)Irrigated agriculture will be the sectormost heavily impacted by climatechange and, therefore, it requires acareful inventory of adaptationstrategies, measures and actions thatlead to the saving of water through theadoption of conservation technologies(i.e. raised bed furrow, sprinkler, dripirrigation, bubbler, zero tillage, rainharvesting, etc.) which clearlyrecognize that climate change willresult in both abundance (floods) andscarcity (droughts) and requiresspecialized knowledge formanagement.

Agriculture should be recognized as abeneficiary of higher rates of CO2gases. With growing concerns aboutmethane (mainly contributed bylivestock and rice), water resourcemanagement should strike a healthybalance in the mitigation of thesegases, which contribute to globalwarming. In particular, the waterallocation to high delta crops like rice,sugarcane and cotton needs to berevisited from the perspective of wateruse efficiency, virtual water and thecontribution of different crops towardsclimate change.

Increase in monsoon intensity willopen up significant windows ofopportunity in rainfed agriculture,which should be explored through wellmodeled adaptation plans.

Policy Section 3: Municipal,Rural Water Supply andSanitation3.1 Incorporate clause relevant to

Climate Change: None identified 3.2 Needed incorporation of

Climate Change in this section(proposed)Climate change will increase theincidence of water-bornediseases, particularly malaria anddiarrhea, and affect themanagement of water suppliesand sanitation. Investmentsshould take this perspective intoaccount. Note: This should alsobe incorporated into the drinking water and sanitationpolicy.

Climate change will put extrastress on mega-centers andtownships, thus straining drinkingand groundwater resources andreducing their quality. Promotingfiltration facilities that utilizerenewable (i.e. solar) energyshould be encouraged both inpublic and private sectorplanning.


Policy Section 4: Water forIndustry4.1 Incorporate clause relevant to

Climate Change4.2 Reserve and make available

sufficient supplies of water forindustry on a priority basis topromote industrial developmentand economic growth

4.3 Encourage industries to treatwaste water on-site to removetoxic chemicals and otherpollutants according to the newimproved standards and legislationand the «polluter pays» principle

4.2 Needed incorporation of ClimateChange in this section (proposed)Industrial policy will enforcemitigation measures whichpromote healthy design processesthat reduce carbon emissions, andthose industries that are sensitiveto such concerns will be allocatedwater on more favorable terms.

Water metering and pricing will helpcheck demand and the wastage ofwater in water-scarce areas.

Policy Section 5: Water forHydro-powerRelevant clauses: None found duringreview

5.2 Needed incorporation of ClimateChange in this section (proposed)It must be recognized that hydro-power is a low-cost and mostenvironment-friendly source ofpower with negligible carbonemissions compared to othersources of energy for powergeneration (oil, coal, etc.). InPakistan the cost of hydro-poweris stated to be as low as 14paisa/KWatt (Shamsul Malik, Ex-Chairman WAPDA - personalcommunication); from Tarbela it iscalculated at 25 paisa/KWatt,while other sources could reachRs 15/KWatt.

Policy Section 6: WaterRights and AllocationsAll policy statements important from aclimate change perspective:

6.2 Needed incorporation of Climate Change in this section(proposed)Draft water allocations andentitlements under conditions ofextreme water stress and scarcitydue to climate change should bebased on projections of glaciermelt, floods, droughts and otherextreme event situations andshould be done only afterstakeholder consultation andwithin an acceptable andtransparent legal mechanism thatbalances the «losers and gainers»from climate change. Traditionalentitlements may need to berevised, based on changingpopulations, rapid urbanization,bio-fuel production, and thechanging comparative advantagesof agriculture vis-à-vis othersectors in the wake of the worldtrade and energy crises and long-term projections of precipitationand rises in temperature.

Policy Section 7: Economicand Financial ManagementIncorporate clause relevant to ClimateChange7.1 Climate Change perspective

ignored

7.2 Needed incorporation of Climate Change in this section(proposed))

Emphasize the economic and socialcosts associated with climate changein the medium to long run. Economiccosts will be in the form of reducedproductivity, changing opportunities,possible resettlement/re-location ofpopulations, and so forth. The socialcosts will be increased inequality andpoverty amongst the marginalizedgroups.

Climate change is a phenomenonprimarily created by the developedWestern countries and furtherexacerbated by the newly emergingeconomies of China and India.Pakistan has to make a strong case toensure that much of the social andeconomic costs are dealt with withinits own domain while the adaptationcosts are largely borne by those whohave created the problem.

Since almost 70% of GDP iscontributed from agriculture, livestockand related industries, the bulk of thefinancial resources would have to comefrom these industries, which contributethe most to global warming, and theymay have to be taxed accordingly. Aproposal for a national Climate ChangeAdaptation Fund should be floated andthis fund should be furthersupplemented with donations from theinternational community.

Following Bali and Poznan, the UnitedStates, under its newly electedpresident Barack Obama, will becomea major player in climate change andcarbon emission mitigation. Pakistanshould formulate a special assistancepackage (through USAID) thataddresses its special resource needsto combat climate change.

Pakistan should also explore thepossibilities of urgent multidisciplinarytechnical assistance to cater to the waterresource challenge under climate changeon the same pattern as the 1960»sinitiative for water-logging and salinity.

Policy Section 8: GroundWater Incorporate clause relevant to ClimateChange

8.4 Promote groundwater rechargewherever technically andeconomically feasible.Comment: Groundwater rechargeis likely to be reduced by 30-40%,based on the present glacier melt


estimates. Reduced river flowsmean reduced groundwater.However, any increase inmonsoon rainfall intensity couldbe reflected in a higher recharge.

8.7 Encourage optimal pumping inwater-logged areas to lower thewater table.Comment: Climate change thatleads to higher temperatures willresult in a lowering of the watertable in water-logged areas withpossible positive impacts on cropsgrown in such areas (i.e. wheat).Almost 13% of the area underwater-logged and saline soilscould benefit from a climatechange-associated temperaturerise. However, this logic should beinterpreted with care as somesodic soils may become evenworse off under this scenario.

8.8 Delineate areas with falling watertables to restrict uncontrolledwater extraction.

8.2 Needed incorporation of ClimateChange in this section (proposed)Groundwater resources are likelyto be substantially improved in themedium term due to glacier meltand more intensive monsoonprecipitation. Leveraging theadvantage of underground waterreserves depends on regulationand the cost of pumping. In aclimate change scenario, areasprone to drought will experienceunsustainable mining of theaquifers. After completing agroundwater inventory, regularmonitoring and water resource useplans must be developed toensure the continuity of agricultureas water flows in the Indus riversystem decline.

Policy Section 9:Stakeholder ParticipationIncorporate clause relevant to ClimateChange

9.1 Create an enabling environmentfor active stakeholder consultationand participation at all levels andin all aspects of the water sector,including irrigation, drainage, ruralwater supply, flood protection, anddrought activities.

9.5 Evolve public awarenessprograms to highlight theobjectives, namely that farmerswould receive more securedeliveries, government agencieswould experience cost savings,and government staff would bere-allocated to new assignmentsboth within the government andwith the new water-userorganizations.

9.7 Promote modern water resourcemanagement and its emphasis oncommunity and individualconfidence and participation in the performance, operation andownership of water assets.

9.2 Needed incorporation of Climate Change in this section(proposed)Investment in public awarenessprograms at all levels on futurewater shortages and the need toconserve and store water shouldbecome an integral part of theoverall national masscommunication strategy. The mostimportant stakeholders are thosein school and others who will facethe bulk of the severity fromclimate change impacts. Improvingunderstanding on how waterresources will be impacted byclimate change will requireadopting modern means ofcommunication and educatingschoolchildren, illiterate/semi-literate adults, women anddisadvantaged groups on the valueof water and its significance for thelong-term survival of civilizations.

Policy Section 10: FloodManagementIncorporate clause relevant to ClimateChange

10.6 Make effective use of non-structural measures, like floodforecasting and early warningsystems to minimize flood lossesthrough better forecasts. Promoteand support research into abetter understanding of themonsoon systems causingPakistan»s high-magnitude floods,including the travel of weathersystems from the Bay of Bengal,and their interaction with westerlycurrents from the Arabian Seaand the Mediterranean vis-à-visseasonal lows over Balochistan,the Tibet Plateau pressures, windvelocities and other relevantweather factors.

10.7 Create a flood response plan andensure that the public is fullyaware of the plan. In floodwarning, the factors of majorimportance are (i) the level ofawareness (2) the time of the floodwarning, and (3) the reliability ofthe warning and credibility of thewarning organization.

10.2 Needed incorporation of Climate Change in this section(proposed)

Climate change will exacerbate theoccurrence of flooding as a result ofthe influx of water from increasedglacier and snow melt into the majorrivers. Monsoon precipitation willincrease and intensify, while itsduration will be shortened. Cross-boundary induced climatic changes inthe Himalayas will pose a specialthreat to Pakistan, whereby excesswater that neighboring countries areunable to store will be unleashed intoPakistan at short notice and withwidespread damage to our assets andagriculture. Collaborativearrangements for developing regional


flood warning systems must beencouraged.

Improve the linkages between themeteorological department, the FloodCommission and disaster reliefdepartments to develop synergies thathelp combat floods in the plains. Takeinto account special measures to copewith Glacier Lake Outburst-inducedfloods where experience is lacking.Close monitoring of newly formedglacier lakes needs to be done on apriority basis.

Accelerate investment in completingcanal, barrage/dam projects whichcould help utilize flood watereconomically and lead to a saving oflife and property downstream.

Policy Section 11: DroughtManagement Incorporate clause relevant to ClimateChange

11.2 Plan and expedite measures tocarry surplus river flows throughdiversions and other structures todrought-prone areas.

11.3 Pay serious consideration to theneed for construction of carry-over storages, which is the onlyeffective way of overcomingwater shortages during droughtyears.

11.5 Encourage and support provincesto prepare Drought ManagementPlans (DMPs) for various drought-prone areas.


The frequency and intensity of droughtare projected outcomes of climatechange. As global warming increases,a rise in temperatures is postulatedthat will make arid areas more aridand increase hardship for man andbeast.

Initiate steps to engage public-privatesector partnerships aided by civilsociety to plan and invest in watersaving technologies that encourageadaptation measures during droughts.

The creation of Food & Feed Banks(for both humans and livestock) andthe provision of insurance and loans tomarginalized groups would helpreduce the burden of droughts.Capitalizing on the recent experiencewith drought in Balochistan and Sindh,augmented by an international reviewof strategies followed elsewhere,would better prepare authorities to putin place a workable relief andadaptation strategy.

Climate Change is likely to result in agreater need for water security andstorage and its emergency extractionat designated emergency centers.Development of such strategic pointswill receive high priority in futureplanning.

Policy Section 12: Drainageand ReclamationNone of the clauses are directlyrelevant to climate change

Needed incorporation of ClimateChange in this section (proposed)Climate change will require re-thinkingasset formation for drainage andreclamation works because of the long-term reduction in river flows, changesin the salt complex and reclamation ofwater-logged and saline lands.

Policy Section 13: WaterQuality Incorporate clause relevant to ClimateChange

13.1 Make improvement of the waterquality in rivers, reservoirs,coastal areas and other waterbodies, including groundwater, anational priority, so as to achieveacceptable standards by 2025through improved agricultural

drainage, municipal, rural andindustrial wastewater treatmentand effluent disposal. Achieve fullcompliance with EPA standardsfor drinking water,

13.2 Needed incorporation of ClimateChange in this section (proposed)

Water quality will be directly impacteddue to an increase in temperatures andhigher precipitation. The salt imbalanceis likely to render water in certain areasno longer fit for human consumption(sea intrusion, brackish water, andwaste water). Climate changeadaptation measures must ensure thatthey do not cause a furtherdeterioration in the quality of waterthrough an improvement in theunderstanding of water biochemistryunder temperature rise.

Resettlement in hotspots due to climatechange will be monitored carefully toensure that this does not lead todeterioration in the quality of water.

Policy Section 14:Wetlands, Ecology andRecreationIncorporate clause relevant to ClimateChange

14.3 Promote afforestation, soilconservation and improvement inland use of the catchment areasof storage reservoirs.

14.4 Minimize downstream as well asupstream environmental impactsand embody appropriate remedialmeasures in the design ofreservoirs and other developmentworks.

14.5 Ensure that sufficient fresh wateris flowing through the rivers intothe sea to maintain a soundenvironment for the conservationof the coastal ecosystem and forfresh and brackish coastalfisheries. Environmental needsmust be addressed while framing


«release rules» for water from themajor storage dams for hydro-power and irrigation purposes toensure the sustainability of areassuch as the Indus Delta.

14.9 Promote programs for raisingpublic awareness and communityeducation about environmentalneeds and conservation.

14.2 Needed incorporation of ClimateChange in this section (proposed)

● Climate change will impact waterresources in Pakistan in anunprecedented manner. Ourwetlands and diverse ecologiesprovide an opportunity for storageof monsoon water, and effortsmust be made to ensure sufficientenvironmental flows to cater tothe needs of our rivers, wetlandsand fragile ecologies in the IndusBasin, with special attention tothe needs of the Delta.

● Ensure scientific management ofwetlands, which are a source ofhigh methane emission, andmake them more eco-friendly.

● Climate change implications forPakistan need to be sharedcontinuously with the public in amanner that helps preparednessand allows communicating withall stakeholders who can helpadapt to such challenges.

Policy Section 15:Information, Managementand Research Incorporate clause relevant to ClimateChange

15.4 Strengthen, promote and supportpublic and private researchorganizations and universities inthe development of appropriateecologies, or to carry outresearch for:

● Conjunctive use of water● Soil conservation, catchment

management and watershedprotection technologies

● Disposal of saline effluents● Water conservation measures

and techniques● Maximization of resources● River training and erosion control● Land and water resource

management● Curtailing conveyance losses● Improving irrigation efficiencies at

distribution and at farm levels● Conservation of the ecology of

the Indus delta● Weather forecasting, rainfall

prediction, flood forecasting anddrought forecasting


● Develop the necessary linkageswithin domestic and internationalinstitutions involved in informatics,management and research topromote an understanding of the«Pakistani postulated impacts»; andinitiate much needed action in theform of programs, projects andresearch agendas that directlyreflect the challenges of reducedwater supplies and risingtemperatures which could lead tofloods and drought. Give specialattention to the creation of «Centersof Excellence» in various aspects ofclimate change within Pakistaniacademia and link them up withinternational centers of repute.

● Climate change will strain watersupplies and requires a high qualitymanagement response that isbased on the best scientific know-how. Special efforts are needed totrain such managers and impartthe skills that are needed for bettersupply and demand managementunder changing climates.

● Invest in state-of-the-artinterpretive equipment linked tointernational meteorologicalresources (i.e. satellite and radarcoverage, regional meteorologicalresources in South Asia, theWorld Meteorological

Organization, etc., with thenecessary expertise for tehsil-level weather monitoring/forecasting), which will betterhelp forecast, predict, and alertmanagers and the generalpopulations to climate changes,associated phenomena and thedelineation of hotspots.

● Pakistan»s Disaster Relief Plan andits related institutions must bedramatically upgraded to cater toclimate change-related extremeevent threats in the future. It mustbe brought under the direct controlof the chief executive (President),reinforced with highly trainedmanagement and allocatedseparate resources sufficient toaddress this challenge.

Policy Section 16: Trans-boundary Water Sharing Incorporate clause relevant to ClimateChange

16.1 Work with co-riparian nationaladministrations as well as withneighboring countries to betterunderstand the overall river basinpotentials and to developappropriate strategies for theiroptimal usage and operation atall times, particularly duringdrought and flood conditions.

16.2 Work with neighboring countriesthrough international agencies,such as UNDP/Global EnvironmentFacility (GEF), to prevent chemicaland biological pollution byeffectively managing industrial,domestic and agricultural effluentdisposal. Flooding in rivers locatedon the upper riparian, can pushthese pollutants into lower ripariancountries.


Climate change will put greaterpressure on, and test relationships


with, neighbors and bring into questionthe long-term sustainability of pasttreaties and agreements. The recentconflicts with India over divertingwaters claimed by Pakistan will befurther exacerbated as the waterresource picture changes on theChenab and Jhelum rivers17.

Policy Section 17:Institutional and LegalAspectsClause relevant to Climate Change:None found during review

Needed incorporation of ClimateChange in this section (proposed)The idea of a high-level Water Councilis commendable. However, thereappears to be considerable duplicationin mandate and authority when itcomes to water institutions. Theseparation of irrigation (under WAPDA)and agriculture (under the Ministry ofAgriculture) itself leads to potentialconflicts and mismanagement of theseprecious resources.

Water needs to be carefully studiedwithin the context of a climate changescenario and continuously monitored fordramatic shifts and unexpected extremeevents. All institutions need to bereviewed from this perspective andupgraded to encompass the widespreadramifications of climate change.

Pakistan»s legal fraternity needs to beeducated about the legal implications ofclimate change in the future. Stepsmust be taken by the relevantministries, in close cooperation withtheir international counterparts, toprovide legislative training in handlingpotential conflicts related to climatechanges that impact water (domesticand international) and appropriate legalinstruments must be created based ona review of the relevant internationalliterature.

Besides the draft Water Policy, there isthe Indus Apportionment Accord andIndus Water Treaty, which arefrequently consulted when dealing withwater policy in Pakistan.

INDUS WATERAPPORTIONMENT ACCORDThe Apportionment Accord of 1991sets the stage for sharing the waters ofthe Indus amongst the four provinces.Pakistan can take pride in the fact thatas a start it has an instrument thatallocates water equitably amongst allthe provinces. Signed on March 16,1991, and represented by the FederalGovernment and all four provincialChief Ministers, the water allocationagreed upon is as follows:

Punjab 37, Sindh 37, Balochistan 12and NWFP 14. These waters are abovethe agreed upon allocation of riversupplies of 114.35 MAF. Since flowshave been less than used in theprojections there is always the issue oftrust and transparency between theupper and lower riparians. This hasresulted in considerable tensionamongst the provinces with the netresult that certain projects are nowbeing jeopardized by this tug of war.

The document is silent on the SOP»s ifthe overall water resources changeunexpectedly, under extreme glaciermelt, significant changes in timing,intensity and the pattern ofprecipitation from a worldwidephenomenon like global warming andclimate change, and on the terms ofthe Accord under force majeureconditions. Also see Majeed Kazi»s«Overview of Water Crisis in Pakistan»at www. Pakissan.

The document should be revisedthrough discussions with keystakeholders after taking all parties

into confidence. The Accord»shistorical development is covered inthe copy attached in annexure andprovides interesting reading. Anamendment needs to be made onwater allocations under a climatechange scenario, after a careful anddetailed analysis of water rightsprotection and the agriculture foodsecurity of the country, and a conflictresolution authority needs to beestablished to address a situationwhere there is a high level of watervariability due to uncertain conditionsthat may have permanence.

IUCN should bring up this issue andfacilitate discussion. The actualrevision of the document can only beattempted after it gains acceptance byall stakeholders and is reviewed at thelevel of various provincial water forumsand a National Water Council (orsimilar body) and is subjected tovetting by the parliament.

INDUS BASIN TREATYThe Indus Basin Treaty, signedbetween Pakistan and India with thesupport and good offices of the WorldBank, established water rights for Indiaover the Eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beasand Ravi) and for Pakistan over theWestern rivers (Indus, Chenab andJhelum). In addition, there wascompensation paid to Pakistan forundertaking development works inPakistan that were further financed bythe World Bank. TheTreaty clearlystates that ≈India should not storeany water or construct any storageworks on the Western Rivers exceptas specified in Annex-D.∆ Thisprovision and its interpretation is themain bone of contention between thetwo countries, leading to seriousthreats and counter-threats in recentyears. India is undertaking a hydroworks and water storage project on


17 Pakistan has been protesting vigorously against India»s water diversions through damming on the Chenab and Jhelum Rivers. IRSA has taken the lead inlodging such complaints at the highest level of government and in international forums (see widespread coverage on the Internet for past 6 months).During 2008 the President of Pakistan has already requested his Indian counterpart to intervene in this very serious matter which has the potential ofturning into something ugly.

the Chenab and is also charged withdiverting waters from the Jhelum.Pakistan has enforced certain clauses of the Treaty by requesting theappointment of neutral experts and israising a considerable hue and cryabout why certain water storageprojects are being constructed incontravention of the provisions of the Treaty.

While this aspect continues to be abone of contention, the Treaty hasnothing to say about the drasticnatural changes to river flowsanticipated from climate change. Thisis an area that requires an in-depthstudy and is beyond the scope of thisconsultancy. Suffice it to say that asclimate change brings more and morewaters during floods to India it willstore what it can and release the restto the detriment of the lower riparian(Pakistan). One recent example is the2008 floods in the Sutlej that played

havoc with Pakistan»s agriculture. Inanother instance, Pakistan is claimingthat due to upper storage constructionon the Western rivers (which belong toPakistan), it is being deprived ofalmost 0.2 MAF water so critical toPunjab»s agriculture. Pakistan hashinted it will seek compensation fromIndia over the stoppage of this water(IRSA, Nov 2008ƒTV interview ofJamaat Ali Shah).

The current energy demand scenarioof India (almost 600 million inhabitantsare without access to electricity -communicated at TERI meeting,November, 2008) is consistent with its8-9% growth rate.

The Indian demand scenario, ClimateChange, and Pakistan»s position onIndia»s water storage and developmentworks on the Western rivers allsuggest a careful re-look (possible re-negotiation under a force majeure

clause) to address the seriousemerging trends that will havewidespread consequences for the twocountries. In Pakistan there is a stronglobby that considers the Treatysacrosanct and argues that sincePakistan is the lower riparian and ittook almost 10 years to arrive at thisTreaty, opening up the issue again isnot in Pakistan»s interest (Shams ulMulk, Amir Muhammed and Jamaat AliShah - PTV interview November 26,2008). This rigid view may beappropriate under a «business asusual» scenario, but Pakistan musttake a very serious look at its optionsin the context of postulated climatechanges and the changing regionalpolitical situation (i.e. the recentterrorist attack in Mumbai and itseffects on India-Pakistan relations,November, 2008)

While discussion on the scope of theBaglihar Dam project (Chenab river)


and the Kishanganga project design(Jhelum river)18 are beyond the scopeof this study, the lesson to be drawn issimple: In extreme situations, such asthat of unexpected extremes in waterresource availability, countries will beforced to revisit (sometimes evenrevamp) treaties. Climate change isunfortunately such an unexpectedextreme case!

(A copy of the Indus Water Treaty isplaced in annexure.)

OTHER RELATEDPOLICIES

Drinking Water and SanitationPolicy: Pakistan now has a drinkingwater and sanitation policy that isplaced in annexure. A salient feature ofthis policy is the recognition of theright of drinking water for all at thelowest price.

Objectives1. To reduce the incidence of death

and illness caused by water-bornediseases by ensuring sustainableaccess to adequate and safedrinking water for all;

2. To improve the quality of life ofurban and rural populations byfacilitating affordable andconvenient access to water forhygiene, sanitation, and otheressential domestic uses;

3. To encourage water conservationby facilitating provincial regulatoryauthorities to assess the life cyclecosts of water supply services andset appropriate tariffs for thediscretionary uses of municipalwater19; and

4. To facilitate identification ofprograms for the protection of

watersheds and groundwater, andpartnerships for maintenance ofstream flow, groundwater rechargeand quality that reduce theinvestments required for waterdiversion and treatment.

Comment: The drinking water policydeals with provision of, access to, andthe quality of safe drinking water. Anumber of strategies are proposed toachieve the objectives under the MTDFand meet the MDG»s. The DrinkingWater Policy is silent on the futureimpacts of climate change on theavailability of drinking water andpossible changes in water quality, asalready noted in the draft water policyand its duplication pointed out.

Since the policy statement is short and crisp (10 pages) the recognition ofclimate change should be added in the introduction and also followed upin the proposed strategies and action plans.

Environment Policy: While this gapanalysis is restricted to agriculture andwater policy and the TOR»s do notrequire the consultant to look atenvironment policy in totality, it isinteresting to note the issues andstrategies identified and proposed inthe environment policy. The only placewhere climate change is explicitlymentioned is in section 4.7 reproducedbelow:

≈4.7. Climate Change and OzoneDepletionIn order to effectively addresschallenges posed by climate changeand to protect the ozone layer, thegovernment shall:❑ Develop and implement the national

climate change action plan.❑ Establish National Clean

Development Mechanism (CDM)Authority.

❑ Develop and implement policy andoperational framework for effectivemanagement of CDM process.

❑ Promote the use of ozone friendlytechnologies.

❑ Phase out the use of ozonedepleting substances in line withthe provisions of the MontrealProtocol.

Comment: The perspective is rathernarrow and only focuses on a CleanDevelopment Mechanism, and isessentially restricted to the urbaninterface of air quality - only one of theseveral manifestations of climatechange. This mitigation aspect of theenvironment policy is a noble objectivebut rather limited in terms of theproper recognition of climate changeas an extremely serious issue. It alsodoes not identify how the UNFCCC»sfirst communication and the KyotoProtocol are built into the document asresponse strategies.

Water Supply and ManagementTo provide sustainable access toimproved water supply and effectivelymanage and conserve the country»swater resources, the governmentshall:❑ Develop legal and policy

framework for promotion of safedrinking water in Pakistan.

❑ Increase coverage of water supplyand water treatment facilities.

❑ Establish a water qualitymonitoring and surveillancesystem.

❑ Make installation of watertreatment plants as an integralcomponent of all drinking watersupply schemes.

❑ Promote low-cost water treatmenttechnologies at the communityand household levels.

❑ Promote appropriate technologiesfor rain water harvesting in rural aswell as urban areas.


18 See ≈The Baglihar Dam- Inventory of Conflict and Environment (ICE) Case Study.htm∆There are several articles on the Kishanganga Project that serve as a background to this issue.

19 Derived from GoP, Planning Commission, 2005, MTDF, Section 10.4.

❑ Launch programs for artificialrecharge of groundwater/aquifer.

❑ Promote metering of waterconsumption to discourage theindiscriminate use of water forindustrial and municipal purposes.

❑ Enact «Water Conservation Act»and relevant standards to fosterwater conservation.

Comment: There is an overlap when itcomes to the promotion of rainwaterharvesting technologies, programs forartificial recharge of groundwater/aquifers and strategies to cater tomanagement of the demand side.However, the issues identified fall shortof a proper appreciation of theemerging trends in climate change thatwill impact water supplies in immenseways and this needs to be recognizedin the Water Policy document.

4.3. Agriculture and LivestockTo achieve sustainable agricultural andlivestock development, thegovernment shall:❑ Promote organic farming.❑ Launch programs and projects to

prevent soil degradation and torestore and improve degradedlands.

❑ Promote integrated pestmanagement and safe use ofinsecticide, pesticides, weedicide,fungicide and herbicides.

❑ Develop strategies and programsto tackle desertification in line withthe National Action Program toCombat Desertification andDrought.

❑ Establish National DesertificationControl Fund.

❑ Encourage ecologicallycompatible cropping systems.

❑ Enhance existing livestockproduction through developmentof new technologies, scientificmethods of farming and improvedmanagement interventions.

❑ Promote recycling of agriculturalproducts associated with livestockproduction, and use of livestocksector as an outlet for recycling ofappropriate urban wastes.

❑ Encourage high productivityvarieties of livestock.

Comment: The policy recognizes theimportance of developing strategies tocombat desertification, an area thatwill be directly impacted by climatechange. Likewise, it stressesecological sustainability in a broader

sense that could be linked to adaptivestrategies under climate change.

In addition to water supply andagriculture, the policy alsorecommends drought disastermanagement centers. This aspectmore closely relates to the NationalWater Policy and can be linked to oneof the more serious outcomes ofclimate change in South Asia, andespecially Pakistan and India.

(A copy of the Environment Policy isplaced in annexure.)

The above analysis of water policy inPakistan shows that there are cleargaps in terms of the climate changeperspective. The suggestions made foreach document should be reviewed ina seminar mode, critiqued and thensubmitted for formal inclusion in thedraft version of the Policy. In the caseof the Water Accord and Indus BasinTreaty, a more detailed analysis needsto be undertaken and the sponsors ofsuch documents consulted aboutinclusion of the climate changescenarios and their implications for thesignatories.



Relevant toAgricultureand Water

PPakistan is a signatory to severalinternational conventions and associatedprotocols. It has also recently provided

leadership at the Bali Conference on ClimateChange (2007) that reportedly resulted in adramatic shift in the position of the lead polluter,the United States, which agreed to radicallychange its position and join the internationalcommunity. Despite minimal progress, there isevery hope that after the stated position ofnewly elected US President Barack Obama theUS will play its due role in mitigating carbonemissions. Likewise, it is expected that thepresent low priority given to climate change inthe US will be revisited and the country»sinternational commitments revitalized. This couldhave major funding implications for theimplementation of past treaties, including theissues in the South Asian hot spot that includesPakistan. It is noteworthy that Pakistan ranks12th in the list of countries that will be mostseriously impacted from climate change while itscarbon emissions are negligible in internationalterms (ranked 135th).

IV. Conventions, Protocols


Selected international agreements and conventions related to climate and environment

Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer (Vienna Convention) -1988 Accession - 18 December 1992

Convention on Biological Diversity Signed - 05 June 1992Ratified - 26 July 1994

The Cartagena Protocol on Bio-safety Signed - 04 June 2001

Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) Accession - 20 April 197

Entry into force - 19 July 1976

Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals Entry into force - 01 December 1987

Convention on the Control of Trans-boundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal (Basel Convention) √ 1992 Accession - 26 July 1994

Convention on Wetlands of International Importance especially as Waterfowl Habitat (Ramsar Convention) Entry into force -

23 November 1976

Convention to Combat Desertification in those Countries Experiencing Serious Drought and/or Desertification, Particularly in Africa - 1994 Signed - 15 October 1994

Ratified - 24 February 1997Entry into force - 25 May 1997

International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture -2001 Accession - 02 September 2003

International Plant Protection Convention √ 1952 Ratified - 10 November 1954

Plant Protection Agreement for the Asia and the Pacific Region - 1956 Adherence - 08 January 1958

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea Signed - 10 December 1982Ratified - 26 February 1997

Male Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and its Likely Trans-boundary Effects for South Asia Endorsed - April 1998

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Signed - 13 June 1992Ratified - 01 June 1994Entry into force - 30 August 1994

Kyoto Protocol Accession - 11 January 2005Entry into force - 11 April 2005

Agreement/Convention Status√Date

Source: ICIMOD Web Page on Pakistan, 2008

In addition to the above, the MaleDeclaration has also been a keyconvention aimed at air pollutioncontrols that falls within the purview ofmitigation and under which Pakistan ismaking considerable progress20.

Kyoto Protocol: The Kyoto Protocol,which followed the UNFCCC (UnitedNations Framework Convention onClimate Change), was agreed upon inRio De Janeiro, Brazil in 1992. The

Convention»s prime focus is on«stabilization of greenhouse gasconcentration». Its emphasis is on aflexible mechanism like emissionstrading and the CDM mechanism (SeeWikipedia, Kyoto Protocol for greaterdetail). An excellent resource for allreaders wishing to update themselveson the UNFCCC and the KyotoProtocol is the UNFCCC website,which provides information on theConvention, its members,

communications from each of thecountries and much more on thestatus of the Convention and its futureplans (see http://unfccc).Initially, Pakistan was rather reluctantto sign this Protocol, but as notedearlier it agreed to the Protocol in 1992in Brazil and finally ratified it in 2004.While Pakistan is not a major polluter itis facing unwarranted consequences inthe form of floods and drought.Pakistan has already sent the first


1 RAMSAR Convention on Wetlands 1971 Jan 1976 I.G. (F)

2 Convention of Migratory Species 1971 Dec 1987 I.G. (Forest)

3 Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) 1973 April 1976 I.G. (F)

4 Convention on the Law of Seas Dec 1982 Feb 1997 D.G. (Env)

5 Basel Convention on the Control of Trans-boundary Movement of Hazardous Waste May 1992 Oct 1994 J.S. (IC)

6 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer Jan 1989 Dec 1992 J.S. (IC)

7 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) June 1992 June 1994 J.S. (IC)

8 Kyoto Protocol to UNFCCC Dec 1997 Jan 2005 J.S. (IC)

9 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) June 1992 July 1994 I.G. (F)

10 United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Oct 1994 Feb 1997 I.G. (F)

11 Rotterdam Convention on Prior Informed Consent (PIC) for certain hazardous chemicals and pesticides Dec 2001 July 2005 J.S. (IC)

12 Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) Dec 2001 Not yet ratified J.S. (IC)

13 Cartagena Protocol on Bio-safety to the CBD June 2001 Not yet ratified D.G. (Pak-EPA)

14 Vienna Convention on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer Jan 1989 Dec 1992 J.S. (Admn)

S. No. Name of Convention Date of Date of Dealing WingsSigning Ratification of the Ministry

Conventions/Protocols Related to Environment

The Ministry of Environment has very kindly provided a listing of current protocols relevant to Climate Change andEnvironment (personal communication, 2008).

20 Also see Male Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and its likely trans-boundary effects for South Asia (Male Declaration, Internet).

communication to UNFCCC and iscurrently working on the secondUNFCCC communication. Detailspertaining to the first communicationcan be found on the UNFCC websiteand have also been included in theaccompanying disk. Pakistan ispreparing for the COP 14 meetings inPoznan, Poland and has alreadycirculated a position paper to thiseffect. This focuses on presentingPakistan»s case for adaptation capacityenhancement, funding to fight climatechange challenges (see Ministry ofEnvironment/IUCN TAP meetinghandouts November, 25, 2008, whichhighlighted the key issues andprovided technical input and guidancefor the delegates attending this forum).

At the President»s directive, Pakistanhas formed a Task Force to provide adetailed analysis of the Climate Changepolicy perspective. It is preparing aninterim report under the leadership ofDr Ishfaque Ahmed, Chief ScientificAdvisor to the President and thePlanning Commission. This report, tobe submitted in December, 2008, listsPakistan»s achievements to date onfulfilling the Kyoto Protocol andUNFCCC agenda in terms ofidentification of challenges, impacts,adaptation and mitigation, and futureplans to address climate change in theareas of water, agriculture, energy,economic threat, mass awareness, etc.

Bali Convention: Pakistan played animportant leading role in theconference held in Bali, Indonesia, in2007. The main outcome, the creationof an action plan (See Net Decision-/CP 13 under Bali Plan), is based ontaking cognizance of the IPCC warningthat climate change is inevitable andthat delays in reducing emissionssignificantly could lead to a higher risk

of even severer impacts. The actionplan will remain in force till 2012 andpossibly beyond.

It focuses on mitigation measures thatare measurable, repeatable andverifiable. Thus the emphasis is onquantitative assessment and themonitoring of changes with respect toCO2 emissions and their impact onclimate change.

A major recommendation andachievable goal was to establish atrust fund that will ensure the long-term resource mobilization needed toaddress the emerging problems ofclimate change.

Some important aspects of the aboveconventions and protocols that need tobe revisited, based on comments madeby professionals interviewed, include:1. Participation in international

conventions and meetings often isrestricted to government officialsand officials of ministries.Frequent staff transfers tend tobreak the continuity in theeffectiveness of the country»sparticipation. In many cases, too,it is non-technical people whoattend meetings and they areunable to present a persuasivecase for Pakistan.

2. There is a strong argument for firstclarifying Pakistan»s ground realitiesthrough discussion and debatebefore taking any decision onpositions. At times, «moving withthe tide», i.e. following what othersdo, is counter-productive and notin the best interest of Pakistan. Forexample, an over-emphasis onadaptation alone, while ignoringmitigation, does not create muchgoodwill for Pakistan among theinternational community.

3. While drafting policy documents,the relevant protocols andcompliance clauses must behighlighted. More specifically,potential conflicts betweeninternational agreements andPakistan»s stated positions mustbe resolved through mutualconsultation. Where avoidance iscostly or impracticable (e.g. adrastic cutback in the ruminantpopulation to reduce methaneemissions, or a marked reductionin rice production), the inability tomeet such requirements should bespelled out upfront, citing nationalinterest as a priority.

4. As emerging trends in climatechange will require newconventions and treaties, manywithin a trans-boundary context(e.g. water and wastemanagement), it is important toexpose a large number ofministries and departments(provincial and federal) to the skillsneeded for data collection,preparation of backgrounddocuments, negotiation, use ofInternet resources and the draftingof internationally acceptabledocuments.

5. A centralized unit must beestablished to serve as arepository of all documentation onconventions and protocolsrelevant to climate change, theenvironment, water andagriculture. Likewise, it would beappropriate to establish focalpoints at the provincial level toaddress specific issues related toa given province, along with sub-committees comprised ofparticipants representing themultiple stakeholders.



andRecommendations

V. Way Foreward

CClimate Change challenges in Pakistan aremainly in the realms of glacier melt, globalwarming, and increased, intensive and

short-interval precipitation during the monsoons,which will negatively impact our water resources,agriculture, health, livelihoods, energy demandsand ecology. Rises in sea levels will lead tosignificant productivity issues in the Indus delta,and affect the fragile ecosystems and wetlandselsewhere, through shifts in the flora and fauna inthe country. The prevalence of floods anddroughts is expected to increase.

Pakistan»s economy is dominated byagriculture and our overall economicperformance is determined by howwell the agriculture sector isperforming. During recent years cropsector growth rates have stagnated, orat times even shown negative trends.Climate change will impact this sectoreven further in unprecedented andunpredictable ways as temperaturesrise to critical levels. Water resourcesare under threat, with every likelihoodthat Pakistan will move from a water-stressed to an outright water-scarcecountry. Developing and implementingpolicies to address challenges in theareas of water and agriculture arefundamental to Pakistan»s economicsurvival. The government has beenpursuing a policy agenda that aims tobring efficiency in these two areas.

Pakistan is a signatory to the UNFCCCconvention and many others, aselaborated in chapter 4. The policies itfollows are also a reflection of itscommitments to the internationalcommunity on how it will dealpractically with the challenges ofclimate change. The processes ofmitigation and adaptation to suchchanges are still at an evolutionarystage. The review of various policydocuments on agriculture and waterhighlighted the need for more explicitrecognition of climate changeconcerns, the incorporation of newpolicy statements that address theissue explicitly, and the rectification ofvarious anomalies (such as theidentification of specific issues withineach of the 8 agro-ecological zonesthat need redress) and shortcomingsthat either intentionally orunintentionally have been reflected inthe policy documents.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1.1 Agriculture1. Pakistan does not have a clear,

updated Agriculture Policy

document, as revealed by this gapanalysis and further noted in theSAARC agriculture policy website.Based on the availableinformation, it is recommendedthat Pakistan review, develop andpromote to stakeholders a policydocument that reflects the currentrealities and takes into accountthe ramifications of climatechange.

2. In the Medium-Term DevelopmentFramework, the Vision Statementand annual development plansshould incorporate statements(suitably modified) that have beenidentified in the relevant sectionsof this report.

3. The following three broadstatements should be added aftersuitable modification:

A. Agriculture policy will implementmeasures that help preserve ouragriculture, protect the productivityand sustainability of farm communities,and ensure economic welfare byadapting to climate change with theuse of relevant technology, know-howand experience.

B. Agriculture policy will addressclimate change amongst farms,agribusiness entities, producers andconsumers by providing informationand know-how on finding ways andmeans to adjust by shifting/substitution to new crops, croprotations, livestock species, fisheriesand forestry that ensure sustainedgrowth on our farm systems.

C. Climate change will alter thecomparative advantages of certainproductive enterprises. Researchorganizations and economic analysisinstitutions will need to be supportedto evaluate the postulated impacts oneach of the dominant enterpriseswithin the 8 climatic zones and topropose modifications in enterprisemix, technology, input use andincentives. Modeling policy proposals

will help simulate present, future andpredicted impacts under variousscenarios.

1.2 Water4. Further debate should be initiated

on the proposed incorporation oftext suggested in chapter 3 in therelevant clauses of the draftNational Water Policy.

5. In-house discussions on the IndusWater Treaty and an evaluation ofthe effectiveness of the Treatyunder various climate changescenarios identified in IPCC, 2007,should be initiated and supportedby newly emerging evidence.

6. The shortcomings in the WaterApportionment Accord should beaddressed in the light of theanticipated climate changes and allthe provinces taken into confidenceon suitable fallback proposals.

7. Pakistan met the challenge ofwater-logging and salinity withinternational help in the sixties.The present water resourcechallenges posed by climatechange require a similar responsethat brings together some of thebest minds in the world to addressa problem of such seriousmagnitude. The possibility ofacquiring high-level TechnicalAssistance with highly specializedexpertise (like, for example, theRoger Revelle Report underPresident J. F. Kennedy) to reviewand recommend action and seekinternational help should beseriously explored with the newUS administration.

8. Conserving water must become anational duty and not be left toany single department orinstitution. A strong advocacyprogram backed by experiences inthe field must be launchedimmediately.

9. On trans-boundary matters, ananalysis should be conducted onhow India has managed todevelop more than 10 large dams


on its river system, the relevantfactors, and what mechanisms ithas in place to harness its excesswater resources. Likewise,neighboring China is constructingmore than 100 dams under anextremely diverse set ofcircumstances.

10. A sufficiently articulated draftwater policy is in place. It shouldbe made succinct and flexibleenough to serve as a guidingdocument for pragmatic decisionmaking.

11. Investments in water should belinked directly to benefits derivedfrom zero carbon emissions inhydro-power generation.International financial assistanceshould be sought with this as thethrust argument in the context ofclimate change.

GENERALRECOMMENDATIONS12. Upon incorporation of the relevant

statements, clauses and articlesinto the Agriculture and WaterPolicy documents, suggestionsshould be solicited from a widearray of stakeholders at federaland provincial levels before thefinalization of the documents. Thisis the ideal opportunity toundertake this exercise as theWater Policy exists only in draftform, while there is no currentagreed upon agriculture policy.

13. Policy seminars (agriculture andwater) should be held at thePlanning Commission and inprovincial government P&Ddepartments, involving planners,policy makers, progressive farmers,agribusiness concerns anddecision makers from bothgovernment and the political arena.

14. A mechanism for continuedfeedback from importantstakeholders should be

developed. This could be in theform of a dedicated website on«Agriculture and Water Policyunder Climate Change».

15. Action should be initiated todevelop the necessary legalframework/legislation in responseto climate change-relatedlitigation, both national andinternational, and the legalcommunity kept apprised ofemerging trends in internationallaw that will apply to Pakistanunder the various covenants oftreaties and conventions(UNFCCC, Kyoto, Bali) and theneed to keep abreast with suchchanges.

16. Pakistan is under obligation toproduce various conventioncommunications (e.g. secondUNFCCC communication), WTOimplementation agreements, etc.Who should be made responsiblefor input from the Water andAgriculture sectors based on thecomparative advantages of theirrelated institutions andknowledgeable manpower? Thereis a need to take a holistic view ofsuch obligations with input frommultiple stakeholders. The presentindifferent state of affairs results invery poor representation ofPakistan»s viewpoint atinternational forums.

17. The print and TV/radio mediashould be encouraged to educatethe general public about thechallenges of climate change andfacilitate a policy dialogueamongst the concernedstakeholders.

18. Economic, financial and socialprediction, projection andforecasting capabilities should beevolved to create adaptationmeasures that address the effectsof climate change on agricultureand water. Social researchorganizations should engage

academia to develop a long-termcapacity to analyze such issuesand propose prescriptions in thelight of available data that isrelevant to Pakistani conditions.

19. Allied policies related to drinkingwater and sanitation, inlandfisheries, livestock, forestry andthe environment should also bereviewed to ensure that climatechange is adequately incorporatedand agreed upon by allstakeholders.

20. The existing draft water policy andagriculture policy (1991) should berevisited and much shorterversions (perhaps less than 10pages) prepared, and a distinctionshould be made between anational policy document andgovernment planning documents.

21. It is recommended that Pakistantake the initiative to draft a NationalClimate Change Policy21 afterwidespread consultation withstakeholders from all walks of life.

22. There are major difficultiesinvolved in retrieving policy-relatedinformation from governmentorganizations. The PlanningCommission may look into waysto simplify document procurementprocedures and also develop amechanism to ensure themonitoring and evaluation of allpolicies being implemented.Promotional bulletins andsynthesis leaflets in all locallanguages and case examplesshould be made available forwidespread distribution.

23. Perhaps the single mostimportant policy Pakistan needs isan «Implementation Policy».

WAY FORWARDThe above recommendations suggestthat the way forward lies in movingfrom careful analysis (based oninternational community concerns


21 A good example can be found on the supporting disk provided with this report √ Draft Policy Sao Paulo (Brazil) Climate Change.

raised in IPCC, 2007 and its earlierassessments) and Pakistan»s ownfindings to the establishment of anAdaptations Center that addressesClimate Change impacts on Agricultureand Water. Equally important is tounderstand the ecological imbalancesresulting from human activity that areoften ignored when postulating theimpacts of climate change. There areno «single silver bullet» solutions to theoverall problem of climate change. Thecore problem has to be analyzedpiecemeal with most major hot spotsand agro-ecological zones modeledand prioritized for close monitoringand adaptation.

Worldwide evidence signals that therate of increase of climate change ismuch higher than anticipated earlier(global warming, rising seas,precipitation, etc.). This is extremelyserious and needs to be highlightedin all discussions and documentation.The views of those who dispelclimate change as «climate variability»must be listened to carefully andresponded to with scientific data andevidence. It is equally important forthe government to be cautioned

against extreme responsivemeasures, such as bio-fuels andcostly irrigation expansion projectsthat spread water too thin, and poorlychosen policy instruments that haveuncertain results. In the face ofdwindling water resources, growthmust be vertical and measures toachieve this will require a diametricalshift in thinking (knowledge,technology and investment) thattraditionally focuses on «more andmore» unplanned infrastructure.

Serious consideration must be given tobringing agricultural produce (e.g.vegetables, milk and other high-demand items to urban centers andperhaps through skyscraper (vertical)expansion of the agriculture resourcebase. This is important as almost 60%of Pakistan»s population will be living inurban areas by the 2030»s and willcause serious problems of pollutionand over-crowding. This closeproximity of agricultural production tocity centers (urban agriculture) is anemerging area for research &development and can help reduce hightransportation costs, improve retailefficiencies, and enhance quality, thus

resulting in major savings in carbonimprints. Besides expanding our publicforest areas, which remain almost 50%under-stocked, Pakistan cancontribute significantly to reducingCO2 emission problems by expandingon-farm forestry near water channelsand on homesteads. This could be animportant strategy that would mainlyrequire knowledge and motivation offarmers and would result in huge pay-offs.

Finally, widespread awarenesscampaigns can help spread themessage that past assumptions onagricultural productivity and wateravailability may be seriouslyundermined by climate change. Freshthinking, based on good science, isneeded, where the supply of high-cost, first-class water is linked tohigh-tech, first-class agriculture.This should be the overridingchallenge for policy and decisionmakers. This will hold true for bothirrigated and dry land agriculture. Thisshould be reflected in thedevelopment resources allocatedbetween agriculture and water.



ConsultedAddress by the Prime Minister of Pakistan - Syed Yousaf Raza

Gilani at the launch of the «Indus Entrepreneurs», Islamabad Chapter - June 2008

Prime Minister»s address to the nation - July 19, 2008

«Let us make South Asia the Granary of the World»: Address of thePrime Minister of Pakistan, Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani at theInaugural Session of the 15th SAARC Summit, Colombo - August 2, 2008

Ahmed S. and Praful Patel, «South Asian Region - The World Bank»: World Bank Website - Pakistan page

Planning Commission. Medium Term Development Framework -Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan - May 2005

Government of Pakistan, 1988, Report of the NationalCommission on Agriculture, Ministry of Food, Agriculture andLivestock, Islamabad

Ahmed, Nazir. «Water Resources of Pakistan», Lahore - Shahzad Nazir publisher.

National Agricultural policy, 1991. Ministry of Food, Agricultureand Cooperatives, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad

Global Water Partnership, February 2000. The Framework forAction (FFA) for Achieving the Pakistan Water Vision 2025.Pakistan Water Partnership, Islamabad

Pakistan Water Partnership, 2001. Supplement to The Frameworkfor Action for Achieving the Pakistan Water Vision 2025.Islamabad, Pakistan

Planning Commission of Pakistan: Glacier Behavior under ClimateChange and its Impact on Agriculture in Pakistan.Seminar proceedings: held on June 4, 2008

National Action Plan on Climate Change - Government of India.Published by Prime Minister»s Council on Climate Change (no date)

International Conference on Climate Change - Science andImpacts, Nov 19-21, 2008, held at Jeju, Korea - Abstracts

VI. Documents

IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report. Also visit their website IPCC.org for earlier reports thatprovide continuity to the climate change argumentwithin a historical context

IWMI.2007. «Water for Food, Water for Life» - A comprehensive assessment of Water Management inAgriculture

Sheikh Ali Tauqeer, 2008. A way forward on ClimateChange. LEAD Pakistan (Mimeographed notescirculated at meeting of Task Force on Climate Change)

Draft National Water Policy, 2005, Government of Pakistan.Internet version

Science √based Agricultural Transformation towardsAlleviation of Hunger and Poverty in SAARC Countries -New Delhi, India, March 5-7, 2008

«Tarbela Dam and related aspects of the Indus River BasinPakistan» - Published by the World Commission onDams, South Africa and Asianics Agro Dev Islamabad,Pakistan

The Water Accord -1991. See Pakistan Water Gateway onthe internet

National Agriculture Policy - Ministry of Agriculture,Department of Agriculture & Cooperation, Governmentof India

Global Change Impact Studies Centre - Several Studies ontheir Web Page. Islamabad, Pakistan

Government of Pakistan, 2008. Draft Report on Impact ofClimate Change on Water Sector. By Water SectorWorking Group. Ministry of Water & Power

Amir, P., 2008. Climate Change and Emerging Opportunitiesin Agriculture. Presented at IUCN Seminar held at RoyalPalm, Lahore, August 30

Amir, P. «Climate Change, Water Resources and Implicationsfor Agriculture», paper presented at NationalConference on Water and Agriculture, held at NARC,August 26-27, 2008. In workshop proceedingsforthcoming

Amir, P., 2008. «Glacier Melt and Agriculture - Are we runningagainst time? Need for a Science-based Response».Lead presentation made at Planning Commission ofPakistan, June, 5, 2008. Islamabad, Pakistan

Amir, P., 2008. «Water and Political Economy of Food inPakistan within a climate change context». OxfordUniversity, UK, April 3-4, 2008 - forthcomingConference proceedings on Food Security

Amir, P., «Climate Change in dry lands and response throughadaptation of risk and diversification - case of Pakistan».Presented at «Science-based Agricultural Transformationtowards Alleviation of Hunger and Poverty in SAARCCountries». New Delhi, March 5-7, 2008

Amir, P., 2008. «Challenging Climates: adapting to Change».Consultancy Report submitted to British Council,Islamabad

Amir, P., 2007. «Climate, water and agriculture interactionsand people»s livelihood» - Pp 58-63. In Climate andWater Resources in South Asia: Vulnerability andAdaptation. Editors Amir Muhammed, M. M. QaderMirza and Bonnie A. Stewart. APN, START and Fred J.Jansen Institute for World Peace, Islamabad, Pakistan

Amir, P. and M Munir Sheikh, 2007. «Droughts in Pakistan:Causes, Impacts and Remedial Measures» - pp 78-94.In Climate and Water Resources in South Asia:Vulnerability and Adaptation. Editors Amir Muhammed,M. M. Qader Mirza and Bonnie A. Stewart. APN, STARTand Fred J. Jansen Institute for World Peace,Islamabad, Pakistan

Amir, P., «Water Dams and Irrigation Infrastructure inPakistan», 2006. Presented at the conference on Futureof Water - State, Agribusiness and Society. PaniPakistan and LUMS, Lahore , Pakistan (In proceedings)

Amir, P., 2005. «Economic Analysis of Trade-Offs betweenAgriculture and Environment and related aspects inSindh and Punjab». Prepared for Study III EnvironmentalConcerns of All Four Provinces, Federal Government,and Islamabad, Pakistan

Amir, P., 2005. «Role of Large Dams in Pakistan». Paperprepared for the Country Water Assistance Strategy, the World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA

Amir, P., 2005. «Modernizing Agriculture through watermanagement». Paper prepared for the Country WaterAssistance Strategy, the World Bank, Washington D.C,and USA.

Amir, P., 2005. «Socio-economic aspects of drought inBahawalpur and Mirpurkhas Hydrological Units ofPakistan». Science and Culture. Vol 71 No. 7-8, July-August, 2005. The Indian Science News Association.New Delhi

Amir, P., 2003. «Micro-level field surveys in Bahawalpur(Punjab) and Hyderabad (Sindh) in the drought affectedregions of Pakistan» presented at Workshop/Seminar onGlobal Changes Associated Vulnerabilities of SouthAsian Water Resources and Impacts on HimalayanMountain Regions APN, San Diego, USA


Bhatti, M. A., 1997. «Climate Change Assessment andAdaptation Strategies for Pakistan in Water Sector».PSF, Islamabad

Faruqee, R. 1995. «Structural and Policy Reforms forAgriculture Growth -the case of Pakistan». World Bank,Washington, D. C., USA

National Conference on Water Shortages and FutureAgriculture Challenges and Opportunities. Organized byAgricultural Foundation of Pakistan. August 26-27,2008, at NARC, Islamabad, Proceedings

LISTING OF RELEVANT SEARCHESREVIEWED (PROVIDED AS SEPARATE CD)

Draft Sao Paulo (Brazil) State Policy on Climate Change

Briefing paper for Pakistani Parliamentarians (brief7eng.pdf)

Climate Change caused extinction of many species

GEF program in Pakistan

Pakistan Impact of climate on Ag in South Asia

Past climate change drove mass extinction in Pakistan

Regional hydrological Impacts

The Bagliar Dam - inventory of conflict and environment

The Heartland Institute Proceedings 2008

UNFCCC

Technical Committee on Water Resources (Nisar Memon)

Ag Policy 1991

Agriculture and Food Security in Pakistan

Annual Plan Chapter 6 (Agriculture)

Annual Plan Chapter on Water

Climate change and agriculture

Climate change and food production in Pakistan

Climate Change √ sub-committee report

Conventions and protocols

First Communication by Pakistan UNFCCC

Pakistan Agriculture in Global Perspective

Increasing resilience of poor countries to cope with impactsof climate change

Vision Statement on Agriculture 2030

World Bank Report on Agriculture 2008

List of acronyms and glossary

Pakissan.com

Pakistan Zardari for ensuring food security

Reforming the government»s role in Pakistan»s agriculturesector

SAARC Agriculture Policies

Scientists Join Hands to Combat stem rust

7 issues of water resources in Pakistan

Basal Convention

Challenges WS

India»s National Agriculture Policy

Indus Water Treaty 1960

Pakistan Drinking Water Policy

Pakistan Water CAS World Bank - presentation

Pakistan Water CAS - Full report

Sri Lanka Ag Policy

And several others



ContactedDr. Shahid AhmedMember, Natural ResourcesPARC

Dr. Rakhsan RoohiWater Resources InstituteNARC, Islamabad

Dr Qamar uz Zaman ChaudhryDirector GeneralPakistan Meteorological DepartmentIslamabad

Dr. Bashir Ahmed Water Resources InstituteNARC, Islamabad

VII. Persons

Shamsul MulkEx-Member WAPDA and Chief Minister NWFPc/oSDPI, Islamabad

Mr. Karamat AliPakistan Water PartnershipIslamabad

Dr Aurangzeb KhanChief (Environment)Planning Commission of PakistanIslamabad

Mr. Naseer Ahmed GilaniChief (Water)Planning Commission of PakistanIslamabad

Dr. Jameel KhanAdvisor AgriculturePlanning Commission of Pakistan

Dr. Kausar Abdullah MalikForman Christian University (FC College)Lahore

Ch. Zaka AshrafChairmanZarai Taraqiati BankIslamabad

Dr. Amir MuhammedEx Chairman PARC

Mr. Tariq TararMNA - Mandi BahauddinNational Assembly

Dr M. AshrafEx-DG, National Agriculture Research Center

Dr Mohsin IqbalChief, AgricultureGCISE, Islamabad

Professor John W. MellorUSAID, Islamabad

Dr Zaighum HabibConsultantPlanning Commission of Pakistan

Senator Nisar MemonChairman Water and Defense CommitteesPakistan Senate

Dr Abdul MajeedEx-HeadIUCN Water Program at Balochistan



Annexure1. Vision Statement 2030

2. Agriculture Perspective and Policies

3. Ag Policy of Bangladesh

4. National Agriculture Policy of India

5. Pakistan National Water Policy

6. National Environment Policy of Pakistan

7. On Status of International Conventions and Protocols in theField of Environment

8. National Drinking Water Policy

9. Water Accord, 1991

10. Indus Water Treaty

VIII. Volume II

IUCN PakistanIslamabad OfficeHouse 9, Street 64Sector F-8/4, IslamabadPakistan

Tel +92 (51) 2850250Fax +92 (51) [email protected]

www.iucnp.org

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