FOOD PRODUCTION AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE POLICIES

By Dr. Muhammad Azeem Khan Chief Scientific Officer & Director General, National Agricultural Research Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan

Presentation Format

1. Definition of food security and current situation

2. Agriculture in Pakistan

3. Macro picture of food security

4. Household level food security, shocks and coping strategies;

5. Policy Challenges and Strategic Solutions

6. Potential to achieve food security

7. Agricultural innovations, research & development experiences

8. Suggestions

Food Security

• “Food Security Exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (World Food Summit, 1996)

• FAO considers food security to consist of four main elements: food availability through sufficient supply; food access for acquiring and consuming food, in particular food necessary for nutritious diet; utilization of food through adequate, water, sanitation and health practices; and stability to ensure that food access at risk

• Article 38 (d) of the Constitution of Pakistan ensures provision of basic necessities of life including food for the citizens of Pakistan. It says:

“The State shall provide basic necessities of life, such as food, clothing, housing, education and medical relief, for all citizens, irrespective of sex, caste, creed or race, as are permanently or temporarily unable to earn their livelihood on account of infirmity, sickness or unemployment”

Pakistan’s Agriculture Progress since 1947

From food shortages and import:

- to self-sufficiency and exports

From subsistence farming:

- to intensive and technology led cultivation

From green revolution:

- to white and gene revolutions

4

Agro-ecological Zones

I - Indus Delta V - Barani Lands IX - Dry Western Plateau

II - Southern Irrigated Plain VI - Wet Mountains X - Sulaiman Piedmont

III - Sandy Desert (a&b) VII - Northern Dry Mountains

IV - Northern Irrigated Plain (a & b) VIII - Western Dry Mountains 5

6

Pakistan Production Systems

N

6

According to Agricultural statistics of Pakistan • Agriculture contributes 21 percent in GDP and engage 40 percent of

the labor force • Geographic area 79.6 m hectares (27% cultivated and 80%

irrigated).

According to Food and Agriculture organization (2011)

Pakistan is second largest producer of chickpea Fourth largest producer of apricot, cotton, sugarcane Fifth largest producer of milk, onion, Sixth largest producer of date palm, Seventh largest producer of mango, Ninth largest producer of wheat and Tenth largest producer of oranges in the world. Overall Pakistan is ranked twentieth in the world regarding farm

output.

WHAT IS FOOD INSECURITY?

The state in which people are at risk or actually suffering from inadequate consumption to meet nutritional requirements as a result of physical unavailability of food, their lack of social or economic access to adequate food and/or inadequate food utilization.

Food Poverty Incidence

Pakistan is ranked 11th globally facing the risk of food insecurity

One third of the population is living below the food poverty line

Incidence of food poverty is higher in rural areas (35%) than urban (26%)

1/3 children <5 years of age are under weight

The food insecurity is higher among females as compared to males

(Food Security

Situation in

South Asia:

Problems and

Prospects-

SAARC,

Human

Resource

Development

Centre, 2012)

Country Report

Nutrient weaknesses[RDA]

A micro level study from 17 agro-ecologies (2011)

Major macro nutrients [energy & protein] at higher level.

Micro nutrients consumed at low levels [ Iron, calcium, vitamin-A etc].

Vitamin A deficiency is more sever but all taken together micro nutrients deficiency noticeable.

Years

Per capita annual availability (kg/person/annum) Percap daily

Grams Food

grains

Edible Oil

/V.Ghee Meat Milk Fruits Vegetable Total

1990-91 137.44 9.99 13.90 60.93 47.73 23.49 293.48 804.06

1995-96 148.55 11.42 17.25 67.16 56.23 27.03 327.64 897.64

1999-00 158.83 11.08 14.19 82.15 52.23 24.55 343.03 939.80

2004-05 142.58 12.35 15.19 85.50 52.64 26.17 334.42 916.23

2005-06 140.98 12.75 16.33 90.30 51.25 31.18 342.79 939.14

2006-07 144.79 12.81 16.70 94.54 50.04 29.79 348.67 955.26

2007-08 155.04 13.29 17.00 93.93 53.71 31.23 364.20 997.79

2008-09 153.99 13.45 17.50 94.81 52.88 24.06 356.69 977.22

2009-10 158.8 11.56 17.27 96.52 53.64 33.6 371.39 1017.51

2010-11 158.7 12.97 16.76 97.37 53.75 34.8 374.35 1025.62

2011-12 160.0 13.14 18.07 97.40 54.12 34.7 377.43 1034.05

Macro Picture: Per Capita Availability of Food in Pakistan

Consistent increase is observed

Wheat Balance-Sheet for (000 Tones) & Import Dependency

Year Production Imports

Stock

change Exports Total

Feed, seed

others 10%

Availabili

ty

Import

share 1961 3814 1080 -308 0 4586 385 4205 25.7

1970 7294 229 336 108 7751 729 7022 3.3

1980 10856 604 -1217 3 10240 1086 9154 6.6

1990 14316 2047 -691 2 15670 1432 14238 14.4

1996 16907 2500 -2539 0 16868 1691 15177 16.5

1997 16650 4088 -3487 0 17251 1665 15586 26.2

1998 18694 2023 -2181 0 18536 1869 16667 12.1

1999 17856 2006 -2061 0 17801 1786 16015 12.5

2000 21079 80 3045 80 24124 2108 22016 0.4

2005 21612 535 851 471 22527 2161 20366 2.6

2006 21277 133 -1411 976 19023 2128 16895 0.8

2007 23295 1820 -936 530 23649 2330 21320 8.5

2008 20959 3188 -1867 142 22138 2096 20042 15.9

2009 24033 0 5000 0 29033 2403 26630 0.0

2010 23310 0 309 305 23314 2331 20983 0.0

2011 25213 0 3562 1781 26994 2699 24295 0.0

2012 23473 0 827 413 23887 2388 21499 0.0

Food Security Situation (PPHS 2010)

Food Secure

(0-2)

Moderately Food Insecure

(3-5)

Severely Food

Insecure (6-9)

PPHS NNS PPHS NNS PPHS NNS

Punjab 36.1 40.5 29.4 32.2 34.5 27.3

Sind 27.5 28 28.6 21.1 43.9 50.6

K . P. Khaw 45.4 68.5 43.2 21 11.4 10.5

Balochistan 77.5 36 19.2 33.9 3.3 29.5

Pakistan 39.6 42 30.2 28.4 30.2 29.6

URBAN 43.1 48 30.4 26.5 26.5 25.9

RURAL 38.0 39.4 30.1 28.3 31.9 31.2

High Prices and Coping Strategies Food Index Food

Secure

Moderate

Insecure

Severe

Insecure Total

Affected by high prices? 0.79 0.96 0.96 0.89

Did anything to cope with? 0.65 0.97 0.95 0.84

quantity of food intake 0.43 0.86 0.94 0.71

Switched to lower quality food 0.53 0.91 0.96 0.78

nonfood exp 0.58 0.92 0.96 0.80

Spent savings/investments 0.34 0.62 0.58 0.50

Loans from employer/traders 0.28 0.50 0.58 0.44

Loans from relatives/friends 0.21 0.41 0.59 0.39

Loans from formal Sources 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.08

Help/gifts (not loans) 0.03 0.08 0.19 0.10

Sold household belong/assts 0.04 0.11 0.15 0.09

Transfers gvmt/NGO (not loans) 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.06

Children out of school 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.05

Children out of school & to work 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.03

education expenses 0.04 0.21 0.12 0.12

Worked more 0.20 0.44 0.30 0.30

Welfare Analysis of Government Policy

Rs. Million 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 Aver

Consumer gain 60510 35291 11989 45307 38274

Millers gain 14454 14710 11803 3246 11053

Producer loss 56615 37176 16658 41371 37955

Government cost 17034 17156 9636 15145 14743

Gain to society 1315 -4331 -2502 -7963 -3370

Ahmad, et. Al. (2006) Impact of Domestic Policies towards Agricultural Trade Liberalization and

Market Reform on Food Security in Pakistan http://pide.org.pk/pdf /foodsecurity/ research/FS2.pdf

Heavy subsidies:

o Consumers partially benefited

o Flour millers major beneficiary

o Crowded out private investment

Rural poor lack access

to most of the safety nets

Food Security Challenge-Pakistan

Population would be 230 to 260 million by 2030 (World's 5th largest country)

Water scarcity and climate change

Crop productivity using lesser land and water resources than are available for agriculture today

Agriculture need to provide healthy food

A-Challenges-Population, Water and Climate Change

• Ranked 28th – severely affected by CC (22 in Africa) (IUCN, 2009). Cereals are under heat stress in South Asia. Yields could by 30% by end of century due to CC

• 10C wheat yield by 5–7% in Pakistan (Sivakumar and Stefanski, 2011)

Low income levels and extreme weather events results

into serious disruptions in food security efforts

1. Raising Total Factor Productivity (TFP); and

No country has been able to sustain a rapid transition

out of poverty without raising productivity in its

agriculture sector (Peter Timmer, 2005)

Requires R & D to develop indigenous technologies :

• Favourable policies,

• Infrastructure, and

• Institutional support

B. Potential sources of growth in food production?

2. Institutional setup assisting the agriculture sector.

The differences in wealth across countries cannot be

explained by :

• access to productive knowledge;

• access to capital markets;

• ratio of population to natural resources;

• quality of marketable human capital; and/or

• personal culture.

Then! What made the difference ?

Example: Migrants from poor to rich countries.

We need to “wise up

Quality of the countries’ institutions

and economic policies

Source: (Olson, 1996 p19)

Intensity of public agricultural R&D spending, 1996—2009

New Innovations and Development strategies

Varietal diversification

National hybrids (canola, Sunflower, Mize)

Water harvesting and efficient use

Bio-remediation of waste water

Sustainable land intensification (bio-fertlizers, organic production)

Cage culture for fish production

Management of post harvest losses

Rural poultry and livestock production

Removing policy distortion

Cedar of trained workers and service providers

Mechanism for wheat Varietal Testing & Release (60 varieties)

Coordinated Programme(s)

International Centres

National Centres

Primary & Advance Testing

National Uniform Yield Trails

Primary & Advance Testing

Primary & Advance Testing

Seed Councils

Seed Agencies

Farmers

Rod-Kohi Development

In rod kohi water drains from 40.12

mh

Command is around 7 mha which is

31% of total cultivated areas in

Pakistan.

Currently, 0.50Mha is under

cultivation.

The total runoff generated by system

in the country is around 12 MAF.

This is more than Terbela dam

(9MAF) and potentially can irrigate

5-6 mha of land.

• 13,000 million (8000 Sewage + 5000 Industrial) cubic meter wastewater, equal to 130 Rawal Dam, is generated .

• Around 50000 ha irrigated with waste water • 26% vegetable grown in peri-uran areas • Bio-Remediation technology fully developed

for cost effective treatment of sewage water

• No chemical and mechanical requirements,

• bio-remediation technology could be used on large scale in collaboration with Provincial and city administrations …..

Bio-Remediation of Sewage Water

Bio-fertilizer-Products Developed

Nitrogen

fixer for

legume

crops.

Solubilizes

fixed P in

soil

Produces

plant growth

promoting

hormones

Biozote-N

Three types of Bio-fertilizers

Biozote-P

Biozote-Max

Being registered by GoP-Punjab

Blue Revolution The production of fish, shrimps

and prawns can be increased by 100% every year by using tested new technologies

Substantial foreign exchange can be earned by improving processing and observing Sanitary/ Phyto Sanitary (SPS) Protocols.

Adoption of Cage Farming for marine and inland fish can transform fisheries sector

Great potential for processing and export of high quality fish

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Alternate Energy for Conservative Agriculture

Solar and bio-gas as alternate energy for promotion on 5 mha area in different ecologies

Solar desalinization technologies for salinity affected areas

Provide clean energy with no recurring cost

It has potential to ensure un-interrupted supply of energy to farm sector

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Alternate Energy Sources

Energy crisis badly hit agriculture sector

Use of Alternate Energy became very vital in agriculture

Demonstrated Alternate Energy technologies

Dual fuel (Biogas-Diesel) engines for pumping water

Solar powered energy efficient irrigation systems

Solar-dryers for Dates, Fruits and Vegetables

Solar desalinization in Rural Areas

Agriculture Service Providers

Millions of jobs can be created in agriculture sector in following fields: Skilled and trained Farm and Livestock Managers

Service Providers and Farm Workers trained in alternate energy, high efficiency irrigation system, pruning, animal care etc.

Trained labour force in Fisheries

Young agriculture graduates as entrepreneurs for clean and true to type fruit and vegetable nurseries

Massive Employment opportunities in value chain and food processing

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High Egg Producing Rural Poultry High productivity with minimal

extra cost-These cross bred High

Egg Producing Chicken produce

at least 200 eggs per hen per year

Live at kitchen waste and

ordinary food

Employment generation

Livelihood improvement

Uplifting of village economy

Empowering women

Back to Innovations

Conclusion

Huge potential to secure food through adoption of agricultural innovations

Innovative research and extension efforts to improve the food security levels of small farmers

Enhanced investment for R&D

Promotion of improved varieties/Hybrids

Effective pro poor policies and their implementation

Beside food availability focusing on food affordability