Governing the Transition to Low-Carbon Futures: A Critical Survey

Governing the Transition to Low-Carbon Futures: A Critical Survey of Energy Scenarios for 2050

Patrik Söderholm, Roger Hildingsson, Bengt Johansson, Jamil Khan and Fredrik Wilhelmsson

Lunds universitet / Fakultet / Institution / Enhet / Dokument / Datum

Background and Objectives

Energy scenarios provide assessments of how the future may unfold.

Several low-carbon scenarios for 2050 have been published, but what

are their lessons for the socetial transitions towards such a future?

This paper provides a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative

low-carbon scenarios, and aims at:

• analyzing key differences in the scenario outcomes presented (e.g., technology mixes and energy consumption patterns).

• discussing how transition governance issues can be integrated into the design and scope of future scenario studies.


Energy Scenarios for Transition

Governance: Some Key Concepts

• Scenario types: predictive, explorative and normative.

Our focus lies on explorative and normative scenarios

• Methodological approach: quantitative models versus qualitative information narratives.

Bottom-up and/or top-down models in the former case, and intuitive logics and explorative modes of thinking in the latter case.

• Transition governance: Two strands of thought:

1. Transition management literature: conditions for socio-technical system change, with increased emphasis on power and conflict.

2. Literature on policy and institutional change and inertia,e.g., emphasis on multi-level environmental governance.

Still little attention is paid to bringing together scenario traditions with transition theory in analyzing low-carbon pathways!


A Critical Survey of Scenarios

Quantitative scenarios (N = 16) Qualitative scenarios (N = 4)

• In most quantitative scenarios a uniform price on carbon dioxide represents

the main driver for change. Implies cost-effective policy compliance.

• Few quantitative studies address the political and institutional preconditions

for materializing the neccesary technological innovation and deployment.

• The qualitative scenarios provide important transition governance insights,

but we see little evidence of combined approaches.


Energy Scenarios for Transition Governance: Suggestions

• Transition governance issues in

designing future scenarios, e.g., to

address technological deployment

- Scenario design can be influenced by

informed reasoning aboout institutional

constraints about technology diffusion.

- Stronger focus on second-best policy

designs (e.g., combination of carbon

pricing and technology policies).

• Analyzing the model results ex post

- Cost-effectiveness does not imply policy

legitimacy, i.e., stronger focus on

distributional effects.

- The ancillary benefits of climate policy

Governing the Transition to Low-Carbon Futures: A Critical Survey

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