Good Governance of Infrastructure investment · 3/8/2019 · Economic Modelling, 2019, forthcoming...
Transcript of Good Governance of Infrastructure investment · 3/8/2019 · Economic Modelling, 2019, forthcoming...
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Naoyuki YOSHINO Dean & CEO
Asian Development Band Institute (ADBI)Professor Emeritus, Keio University
March 8--2019 UNESCAP
Good Governance ofInfrastructure investment
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Circulation of Savings into Domestic Investment
Domestic
Savings
Bank
Deposits
Mutual funds
Hometown Crowd
Funding
Insurance
Pension Funds
Loans Large
Corporates
SMEsStock
MarketGovernment
Expenditures
Infrastructure
Bond
Market
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Growing Savings Ratio in Asian Countries
(1) Savings → Bank Loans → SME → Economic Growth → Deposits
(2) Increase of domestic Savings is Important in Asian Growth
(3) 1997 Financial Crisis of Asia → Lack of Asian domestic Savings
→ relied on foreign capital inflows
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Pension Funds and InsuranceInstitutional Investors
1, Increase Long term Savings (Insurance)
2, Pension Funds to cope with aging population
3, Asset Management of Insurance and Pension Funds
→ Invest into Overseas’ Bond
→ Put their assets into bank deposits
(Myanmar, Cambodia)
4, Infrastructures are needed in Asian
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User Charges are not enough
Increase in tax revenues
by spillover effects
user charges
1/14/2018
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Direct Effect and Spill-over Effects
Output
Quality of Infrastructure is measured by
the spillover effects
Production Function Y=F( Kp, L, Kg )
Spillover effects
Direct Effect
Y= Output,
Kp= private capital,
L = labor
Kg = public capital (infrastructure)
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Spillover Effects of
Infrastructure Investment
Railways
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10Construction Operation period
The Southern Tagalog Arterial Road
(STAR Highway), Philippines, Manila
Tax Revenues in three citiesYoshino and Pontines (2015)
ADBI Discussion paper 549
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Highspeed Rail Network
800 series, JR Kyushu 11
Usual Lines of JRNarrow Gauge 19,835 km
High speed railwayLines of JRStandard Gauge 2,765 km
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-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
∆ Total Tax ∆ Personal Income Tax ∆ Corporate Tax ∆ Other Taxes
Construction [1991-2003] 94895 7447 3435 84012
Operation 1 [2004-2010] 75131 -23843 -6883 105858
Operation 2 [2011-2013] 194790 48690 80998 65102
Estimation results (Connectivity increased tax revenues)
High speed railways
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Increases in Tax Revenues
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Railway Station in India
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Hotel
Business
JR Farm
Promote Tourism
Restaurants at
Various Stations
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Give incentives to operating companiesSOE Reform → Increase efficiency and rate of return
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Long term bond (Floating rate)
Return
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ҧ𝑡
Fixed
Interest
Rate
𝑡∗
0
𝑅
ത𝑅
𝑡 → 𝑁
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∆Tax
Subsidy = 0.5*∆Tax
Control group
Treatment Group
α+β0
α
Time
Ou
tco
me
𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆 = 𝜶 + 𝜷𝟎𝑫𝒊 +
𝒕=𝟏
𝑵
𝜷𝟎 ∗ 𝑫𝒊 ∗ 𝑻𝒕 + 𝜺𝒊,𝒕
∆Tax= ҧ𝒕 ∗ ∆Y
Concept of subsidy based on additional flow of tax revenue due to infrastructure
(no need for increase in tax rates)
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TimeR
ailw
ay
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Uzbekistan Railway(Yoshino and Abidhadjaev, 2017)
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Financing for Start-ups
along Roads and Railways
(Hometown crowd funding)
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Infrastructure & Education Yoshino and Umid Abidhadjaev (2016)
Dependent variable: log difference GDP per capita in 1991-2010
Regression number REG.1 REG.2 REG.3
Variables Coef. Coef. Coef.
lnY_1991 -0.06 -0.14 -0.14
(-0.54) (-1.35) (-1.38)
ln(n+g+d) -3.09 -5.75 -4.36
(-0.59) (-1.23) (-0.77)
ln(Kg) 0.23 0.31 0.53
(1.17) (2.00) (3.30)
ln(Sec) 0.00
(0.46)
ln(Kg)xln(Sec) 0.20
(1.59)
ln(Uni) 0.21
(2.07)
ln(Kg)xln(Uni) 0.24
(2.76)
Constant -0.28 0.56 0.48
(-0.33) (0.69) (0.57)
Number of observations 44.00 44.00 44.00
R-squared 0.21 0.30 0.30
F-statistic 2.62 4.14 3.29
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Dividends
Land Trust for Infrastructure Investment
LandOwners
Transfer of Management
Trust Bank
(Watch ProperUse Of
Land)
1, Reduction of Costs of Land Purchase2, Leasing contract3, future tax revenues can be used for repayment 4, Land owners keep their ownership
Railway
Company
Investors
④
New
Business
Increased
Employment
⑤
TaxIncrease
Spill Over Effects
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Benefits of Land Trust
1, Annual Income rather than one time receipt of huge income
2, Even if Land owners are not in the country trust bank keeps the rent
3, Smooth construction
4, Need Trust Laws
5, Give Trust license to bank
by the Central Bank
No need to establish trust bank26
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Various Risks associated with Infrastructure
1, Risks: (i) political risk
(International organization ADB, WB)
(ii) construction risk,
(iii) Natural Disaster
(iv) operation and maintenance risks,
(v) exchange rate risk (overseas’ investors)
2, User charges cannot be set too high
User charges <<< Total costs3, How to maintain stable income stream ?
Utilize Spillover Tax Revenues
4, Infrastructure Oriented Developments
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ReferencesYOSHINO Naoyuki, and Farhad Taghizadeh–Hesary, (2019)“Modelling the social funding and spill-over tax for Addressing the green energy financing gap”, Economic Modelling, 2019, forthcoming
Asian Development Bank (2017) Meeting Asia’s Infrastructure NeedsYoshino, Naoyuki, and Umid Abidhadjaev. 2017a. “An Impact Evaluation of Investment in Infrastructure: The Case of a Railway Connection in Uzbekistan.” Journal of Asian Economics 49: 1–11.
Yoshino, Naoyuki, and Umid Abidhadjaev. 2017b. “Impact of Infrastructure on Tax Revenue: Case Study of High-Speed Train in Japan. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development 1 (2): 129–148.
Yoshino, Naoyuki, and Masaki Nakahigashi. 2004. “The Role of Infrastructure in Economic Development.” ICFAI Journal of Managerial Economics 2: 7–24.
Yoshino, Naoyuki, Masaki Nakahigashi, and Victor Pontines. 2017.“Attract Private Financing to Infrastructure Investment by Injection of Spillover Tax Revenues.” Nomura Journal of Asian Capital Market 1 (2): 4–9.