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GLOBAL GRAIN & FEED MARKETS

Every issue GFMT’s market analys t John Buckley reviewsworld trading conditions which are impacting the full range

of commodities used in food and feed production. Hisobservations will influence your decision-making.

 WHAT a difference one

summer can make!

Six months ago the

key issue for the

 world wheat market was how low

prices might go amid the rise and

rise of cut-price exports from Russia

and other ‘Black Sea’ countries, the

erosion of more traditional supplier’s

market shares and the ensuing threat

of major planting cuts for winter-sown2011 crops outside of the former Soviet

Union (FSU).

This autumn, Russia and its neighbours are stillthe top talking point but for the reverse reason

as savage drought slashes their contribution to

world export supplies and sends world wheat

prices scuttling back to their highest level in two

years. It’s doubly unfortunate for consumers that

this should occur in a year when European and

Canadian crops have also suffered unusual weather

problems. But the situation is nowhere near as dire

as in 2007/08, when crop failures, much tighter

starting stocks, the first big boom in bio-fuel

demand for feedgrains and ballooning commodity

investments by speculators helped drive prices

to record highs of over $450 per tonne for soft

wheat and twice that for hard milling varieties.

The main difference this time is the massive

stock left over from the past two bumper seasons.

This will go a long way to supplement export

supplies in 2010/11. Much of the surplus is held

in the largest exporting country, the USA, where

good crops this year can keep the world market

well-supplie d. Even with a smaller crop this

year, the EU remains a big player in the export

league – though at potential risk of leaving its

internal market finely balanced and thus at risk 

of continuing high prices. High quality supplier

Australia meanwhile seems to have a good crop

and will also be keen to cash in on a world market

hungry for alternatives to FSU supplies. An othermajor supplier, Argentina’s crop is bouncing back 

from last year’s drought affected lows while

India is sitting on record crops and turning from

sometime importer to exporter .

But inevitably, the floor price of internationally-

traded soft milling wheat, as formerly set by the

Russians and co, has risen sharply from the $160’s

of this summer closer to $280/300 recently while

hard North American spring wheats for beldnign

up flour quality are back in the mid-$300’s (from

a summer low of $270). Even amply-supplied US

hard red winter grades – the top exporter’s most

widely-sold wheat – have more than doub led in

price to over $300 per tonne.

Two key factors

caused a shift of

emphasis in the

maize market

during the last

month. One was

an official update

of US planted area

 which came in

 well below trade

expectations. The

other was a lower

than expected US

quarterly stock

estimate at June

1, the result of

feeders and ethanol

consumers having

to use more of last

 year’s lower quality

crop to get the

same end result.

How long will the wheat boom last?

Gain&fd illinG hnlGy34 | September - ctober 2010

COMMODITIES

Will these prices stick, increase further or

eventually fall back? The answer to this lies

largely in the extent to which the 2011 world

wheat crop can bounce back, especially in the

still-dry areas of Russia and Ukraine where

the threat of contracting area and/or poor

crop germination is causing considerable

unease in the markets as we go to press. If 

rain does spread over these areas by early

October, then these crops are in with a

chance of fairly normal development, if at

risk of late establishment ahead of the oft en

harsh Russian winter. Forward wheat prices

will also be influenced by how much other

farmers in the northern hemisphere expand

their 2010/11 sowings. US winter wheat is

already expected cover 10/15% more land.

With the promise of €200/tonne plus prices

for some time yet, European producers must

also have been tempted to sow more. The

same applies to countries, like Canada, where

spring plantings dominate wheat production.

Many of our readers may remember that

after the last supply squeeze, world wheat

sowings rose and crops bounced back by

an incredible 70m tonnes in just one year

 – far exceeding consumption needs and

in the process setting the stage for the

past season’s depressed wheat prices.

Remarkably, this took the Chicago wheat

futures prices (closely followed by Europe

then and now) back from a February 2008

high of over $13/bushel to the $4.50’s by

December of that year.

A repeat can’t be assumed for the coming

year. No two seasons are ever the same and

there is too much uncertainty at the moment

over the FSU situation, as well as some

lingering weather issues in other parts of the

Gain&fd illinG hnlGy September - ctober 2010 | 35

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Gain&fd illinG hnlGy September - ctober 2010 | 5

Commodity highlights

Wheat - some of the facts

and figures…

With more than a little help from the

trigger-happy speculative community, wheat

prices that, as recently as June, seemed likely

to test four-year lows, have instead heading

back toward the highs that followed the

last big crop shortfall in 2007/08. European

markets have been no exception, soft milling

wheat recently trading as much as 80% higher

than in June. Steep increases have also been

seen in higher protein hard wheat prices,

especially US hard red winter wheat which

has enjoyed an export boom on the back of 

short FSU supplies. But just how short is

world ‘exportable’ wheat supply in reality

and what are the longer implications for

prices? The short answer is that this is not

yet a repeat of 2007/08. For even with all

the downward revisions to the world wheat

crop (about 25m tonnes since June), current

season’s world supplies are still adequate to

meet demand - without taking next year’s

global carryover stocks down to risky low

levels. Indeed, the stock foreseen at the closeof this season on June 30 2011 is currently

  just 18m tonnes lower than this year’s

massive 196m, making it the second highest

of the past nine years. (chart1).

After the first burst of strength in world

wheat prices in early August – as the full

extent of Russian and other ‘Black Sea’

countries’ problems began to break – this

message of restraint appeared to be making

an impact, sending prices partway back as

August wore on. However, the persistence

of drought well into Russia’s planting season

for winter-sown 2011 crops, its decision to

pull out of the export market (initially until

end-2010, then until after its 2011 harvest

has been counted) have recently put wh eat

prices back on the boil again. De facto export

halts by Ukraine and Kazakhstan and the

likelihood that any surpluses they have will

flow to Russia added to the bullish mood,

along with recent threat of frost cutting the

quality of the weather-delayed Canadian

harvest.

The volume of attention wheat has

received in the broader media has probably

contributed too by encouraging already

excited hedge funds and other speculators to

bet on prices rising and making them a profit.

As mentioned in this column before, the sums

be required by the world

market, mainly in China’s

growing feed industry

and in other countries

substituting it for tighter,

more expensive feedwheat.

This will leave world end

stocks of maize at 136m

tonnes at the end of the

2010/11 season. It sounds

a lot but is uncomfortably

low in relation to demand

that has grown by a

staggering 100m tonnes in

 just four years!

Thanks to the FSU &

and EU crop problems, the

world barley market is in

even tighter supply, output

dropping by 16% or 24m

tonnes this year to just

126m tonnes – its lowest

level in decades. Despite

expected stock drawdowns

and a reduction in global

usage, this has already

pushed EU feed barley

prices up by as much as136% at one stage, turning

barley’s normal discount to

maize and feed wheat into

big price premiums. Clearly

bigger barley crops will also be needed next

year to bring this market under control.

The good news is all on the oilmeal

side of the feed markets,

thanks largely to a surge

in world soyabean

production. In a year of 

disappointing EU/ FSU

rapeseed and sunflower

production, this has

been a huge restraining

influence across the

protein sector and, on

current crop pointers,

may continue to anchor

prices in the months ahead. However,

the oilseed raw materials cannot divorce

themselves from what is happening on the

cereal markets. Feedgrain shortages will

see some extra demand for oilmeals. Even

more importantly, when next spring comes

around, the all-important US soyabean

crop will need to be priced at a level that

can compete for farmland with the cereal

crops.

globe. But that experience is, nonetheless,

one good reason why the speculators and

the grain trade alike should be treating this

current ‘wheat boom’ with some caution.

Maize prices have also risen sharply in the

last two months to nudge two-year highs

amid lower than expected US, CIS and EU

production, partially offset by better than

expected Chinese output. Speculators

have helped push prices up through the

US markets, still focusing on the growth of 

world demand. Although US consumption

growth has slowed (less feed use offsetting

more into ethanol) another 10m tonnes will

World wheat supply snapshot

(mn t onnes ) 2010/11 2009/10 2008/9

USA 61.6 60.3 68

EU 135.1 138.3 151.1

Canada 22.5 26.5 28.6

Australia 23/25 22.5 21.4

Argentina 12 9.6 10.1

Russia 42.5 61.7 63.7

Ukraine 17 20.9 25.9

Kazakhstan 11.5 17 12.6

WORLD output 643/5 680 683

Consumption 661 650 642

EU wheat production by country

(mn t o nnes) 2010/11 2009/10 2008/9

France 37.8 38.3 39.5

Germany 23.5 25.1 26.0

UK 14/15.5 14.4 17.3

Poland 8.1 9.8 9.3

Italy 7.2 7.0 9.0

Rumania 6.0 4.8 7.8

Spain 5.4 4.8 6.7

Gain&fd illinG hnlGy36 | September - ctober 2010

 

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37

 

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tonne fob from a low of $250 in June – an

unwelcome cost increase for millers but

a world away yet from the $800 reached

during the 2008 shortages. Canada’s Ontario

province could sow a record winter wheat

area amid firm world prices – although

a more important issue may be whether

wheat prices offer as much encouragement

for Canada’s mainly spring sown wheat crop.

Winter sown crops on the other hand usually

comprise almost 70% of the US national

wheat harvest and are bound to grab larger

area this autumn. Even before that potential

large crop starts arriving from May onwards,

the US is expected to carry forward 26m

tonnes of old crop stocks for the second

year running. The biggest share of these

will be hard wheats as most sought by the

world’s importers to blend with cheaper,

lower quality soft wheat supplies. A good

Australian crop and a bigger breadwheat crop

in Argentine will also help keep quality wheat

consumers supplied. Although Germany’s

normally high quality wheat crop may be

less than 50% milling, rather than the usual

80/90% , the top EU wheat producer, France,

has surmounted summer droughts and wet

harvests to produce a higher quality cropthan last year which will go some way to

meeting EU and foreign customers needs

Maize crops smaller thanexpected

MAIZE prices have risen close to two-year

highs on the U S and world markets in recent

weeks, partly due to a reduction in world

crop prospects and partly dragged up by the

rocketing cost of wheat for the feed sector.

Three months ago, world maize output was

expected to reach 836m tonnes, of which the

US would supply 340 m. Recently, however,

the world total has shrunk to 826m after

reductions for the US (now 334m, though

still a record high), Europe and the Ukraine.

Trade analysts expect world consumption

to increase by only 10m tonnes this season,

compared with almost 39m in 2009/10,

despite some shifting of global demand

from tight and expensive feed wheat and

barley into maize. The biggest increase is in

China (+4m tonnes at 160m) but this should

be easily catered for by domestic output if 

the crop rises, as officials expect, to a new

record 166m (from 155m). Earlier this year,

US markets were abuzz with forecasts of 

massive Chinese corn imports as domestic

will be nail-biting period for many months

to come as farmers pray for a mild winter

and more normal weather next spring and

summer.

That said, other wheat producers will

definitely respond to this challenge. In

the USA, where exporters are suddenly

enjoying the sort of bonzana sales they’d

almost written off for

good, there will be a

surge in winter wheat

sowings – perhaps

as much as 10-15%.

At the sort of prices

persisting on futures

mar.kets as we go to

press we can expect

a s imi lar react ion

across the Northern

Hemisphere. But will this mean a lot more

wheat next summer or more drawdowns on

those still comfortable surplus stocks? Only

time will tell. In the meantime, the futures

markets for wheat are showing a relatively

modest premium for mid-2011, eroding into

the autumn months on the hope of a world

crop rebound but still up in the region of 

$7.50/bushel (about $276/tonne) on thebellwether Chicago exchange. My hunch

is that this over-rates the forward cost of 

wheat and that medium/longer term prices

in the $5.50/6.50/bu range are more likely

 – a level at which wheat may at least have a

better chance of defending its acreage further

down the road. However, a ‘back-to-back 

Russian crop failure could

scuttle that prediction,

drag in speculative buying

and send prices through

the roof.

Points to watch

*Wheat quality is an

emerging issue - On the face

if it, recent official reports

out of Canada have been

encouraging. Government

officials have found more stocks at July 31

than expected, pointing to either an under-

rated 2009 crop or over-rated demand.

The crop forecast has also drifted up to

about 22.5m from 20.5m tonnes. However,

a late-planted crop is now facing threats from

incessant rains and the first hard frosts of 

the season which could have a big impact

on quality. Canadian hard spring wheat for

export has recently risen to about $325/

required to gamble on commodity markets

are almost pocket money to some of these

operators, compared with the trillions of 

dollars funds invest in equity, money markets

and other financial instruments. This gives

them immense power to exaggerate price

movements and to sometimes create self-

fuelling trends.

In mid-September, the key factor

influencing current and forward world wheat

prices remained whether the Russians could

put their crop and get it es tablished before

the usually harsh winter set in. A s we went

to press, much of the Black Sea region,

including the Ukraine (often the world’s sixth

largest wheat exporter) was still waiting for

normalizing rains with perhaps only 30/40%of crops in the ground. The prospect of two

back-to-back crop problems in the former

Soviet region would certainly be bullish for

world prices. This year’s decline of almost

30m tonnes in regional wheat output was

cushioned by larger than usual carryover

stocks from the previous year which – even

with a halt to exports – will likely fall by

a third now, possibly by as much as a half,

leaving no leeway next year. It is not only

wheat that has suffered. FSU coarse grain is

also estimated to have dropped from 68m

to 51m tonnes, largely in the barley sector,

forcing a 10m tonne cut in consumption and

greater demand for any available feedwheat.

Even if the Russians do finally get their

autumn sowings in with a chance, there

Gain&fd illinG hnlGy38 | September - ctober 2010

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illustrated by unusually low levels on the river

Amazon, disrupting vessel traffic to export

ports. South American production now

accounts for over half the world’s soya output .

However, the expected decline in acreage

looks more questionable with some origin

consultants still of the opinion that plantings

will be stable or higher while soyabean prices

stay over $10 on the Chicago market.

Big supplies, and the prospect of still high

world soyabean/oilseed ending stocks at the

end of this season, have kept soyabean prices

remarkably stable in recent months while

soyameal, in dollar terms has also flucuated

in a fairly narrow band (if rising in the third

quarter of 2010 on the European market

during to the ongoing weakness of the euro).

However, if maize and wheat prices continue

to firm, soyabean prices could soon be forced

to join the fray, partly due to the extra demand

flowing in from tight cereal markets but more

because of the need to defend soya’s share of 

the US crop acreage next spring. Maize alone

is said to nee an additional 3m to 4m acres

next spring to get supply back into line with

demand. Soya could also be under threat in

the southern States from cotton, trading at

its highest level in decades on tight supplies.

Still, as current predictions stand, bigger

cottonseed and groundnut crops could still

be enough this season to keep world oilseed

production at simiular levels if not larger

than last year’s 440m tonnes. That would be

enough to supply an expected 16/17m tonne

rise in crush without even drawing on those

large carryover stocks.

Globally oilseed meal demand is also

expected to increase by 5% or 12m tonnes

in the coming season, about half of which

will take place in China, through increased

soya meal consumption. Most of that, in turn

will be supplied by imported soyabeans from

the Americas, making a good soya crop vital

next year.

Demand for maize could be boosted further

by a still-tightening supply of alternative coarse/

feed grains. World barley output is now seen at

its lowest level in decades, at 126m tonnes, 2m

less than last month, 24m below last year and

15m below estimated

consumption needs.

In recent years barley

has supplied about 13%

of world feed grain

consumption compared

with wheat’s 15% and

64% for maize.

Oi lmea l s – no

shortage but a firm

undertow from cereals

THE good news in the feed sector is an

abundance of soyabeans, normally accounting

for 55/60% of world oilseeds and well over

two third of oilmeal supply. With recent

upward revisions for Brazi,

the world crop in 2009/10

is now estimated to have

reached a new record

260m tonnes – 48m more

than in 2008/ 9. World

oilseed production has also

been boosted by biggerrapeseed and palm kernel

crop supplies, enabling total

oilmeal production to jump

from 229m to 242m tonnes

while building up a mammoth

world carryover stocks of oilseeds totalling

some 74m tonnes (about 16m more than

last year).

Easy supplies and a stellar outlook for the

next US crop, just starting harvest, may not

be enough to keep oilseed supplies growing

in 2010/11 if,

as USDA and

other observers

think, soyabean

production

backtracks next

spring in Brazil

and Argentina

amid slightly lower

sowings and an

expected turn to

less favourable dry

weather during an

El Nino phase. Certainly the Brazilian planting

season, which starts next month, is making

traders uneasy with one leading soya state,

Mato Grosso, curren t experiencing its worst

drought in 40 years. The lack of water is starkly

demand outpaced production. Yet at this

stage, the USDA actually sees China building

its reserve stocks from 53 to 60m tonnes.

This would put China in charge of 44% of the

world stock compared with between 25%

and 33% normally and in China’s controlled

system that would effectively keep them out

of the world market.

Demand in the USA is actually lower than

last year’s as much slower growth in ethanol

use (just 4m versus the previous year’s 21m

tonnes) is outweighed by a 6m tonne slump

in the feed sector.

Still, even under this scenario, the US market

will have to draw on stocks to meet a 7.3m

tonne shortfall against total domestic and

export needs, reducing seasonal ending stocksto 28.4m tonnes, their lowest since 2003/04 and

equal to just four weeks supply. Some analys ts

think that balance could be even tighter if 

disappointing yields from early harvests prove

typical, potentially propelling the US price to as

much as $6/bu (about $236/tonne).

The EU is expected to produce just under

55m tonnes – about 2m less than last year

and to consume 59.5m. That will be managed

partly by cutting down exports and partly

by importing as much as 5m compared with

last year’s 2.5m tonnes. Clearly the import

cost will be far higher than last season with

US export prices recently running about

25% higher on the fob market than at this

time last year.

Gain&fd illinG hnlGy40 | September - ctober 2010

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Article reprints

All Grain & Feed Milling Tecchnology feature articles can be re-printed as a 4 or 8 page booklets (these have been used as point of sale materials, promotional materials for shows and exhibitions etc).

If you are interested in getting this article re-printed please contact the GFMT team for more information on - Tel: +44 1242 267707 - Email: jamest@gfmt.co.uk or visit www.gfmt.co.uk/reprints