Global Market Forecast 2017-2036 - · PDF filenew aircraft demand passenger and freighters...

The world is a book and those who do not travel read only one page.Augustine of Hippo

With aviation’s growth and the shortening of travel times to almost any point on the globe, the world has metaphorically become a much smaller place. Journeys which just a generation ago would have taken weeks can now be achieved in a day or even less. For the passenger however, aviation has provided much more. It has also grown individual horizons, expanding exponentially the places, people, cultures and experiences that travellers can access with just a few clicks to book their flights. The United Nations World Tourism Organisation has shown how travel for tourism purposes has expanded globally: in the 1950’s, the top 15 country destinations absorbed 98% of all international tourist arrivals; in the 70’s the proportion was 75%, in the new millennium this fell to less than 60% and is sure to fall further. This clearly shows the emergence of new travel destinations, many of them in developing countries.

But does travel grow horizons? A survey carried out in 2016, of people who have taken time from their professional lives to travel, stated that over 80% had learned more about the places, people, and cultures they had visited, more than 80% also said they had new experiences, 60% made new friends, and interestingly nearly 70% said they learned more about themselves.

But we really don’t need statistics or surveys to tell us this; we have all experienced the knowledge and personal understanding of the world and it’s people that travel and in particular air travel can bring.

We hope that you find the 2017 Global Market Forecast informative and useful. We seek to improve our analyses continually, and your questions, challenges and suggestions help us advance towards this goal. Don’t forget you can download our App to your smartphone. It complements the forecast and enables you to have facts, figures and insights at your fingertips wherever you go. If all you want are the numbers, you can also download an excel sheet from Airbus.com.

Introduction

001Growing horizons

01Executivesummary005

02Demandfor air travel011

03Network & Traffic forecast021

04Demand for passenger aircraft031

Growing horizons002

043 Asia-Pacific051 Europe059 North America067 Middle East075 Latin America

& Caribbean083 Commonwealth

of Independent States

091 Africa

05Demandby region041

06Freighterforecast099

07Services forecast107

08Methodology & summary data117

003Growing horizons

01Executive summary

005Executive summary

Air transport is a growth market

60%growth over the last ten years

More than double since 9/11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015201020052000199519901985198019751970

World annual traf�c (trillion RPK*)Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis

AsianCrisis

FinancialCrisis

WTC AttackSARS

+60%

+110%

*RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometres

AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO BE RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS

Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017

• Strong and resilient passenger traffic growth.

• Air traffic (RPK) doubles every 15 years.

• As air transport develops, drivers evolve, with some becoming more significant, including private consumption.

• Demand for 34,900 new aircraft by 2036:~34,170 passenger aircraft and 730 freighters~40% of passenger aircraft demand needed for replacement, and ~60% for growth.

• Single-aisle represent 71% of units, and widebodies represent 54% of value.

• Asia Pacific will account for 41% of the demand, with the US and Europe together representing 36%.


Passenger aircraft above 100 seats, freighter aircraft above 10 tonnes

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2036Beginning 2017

20,500

22,030

42,530

34,90020-year

New deliveries

12,870

7,630

Growth

Replacement

Stay

New deliveries

FLEET IN SERVICE EVOLUTION Source: Airbus GMF 2017

Rounded figures to the nearest 10

20-YEAR NEW DELIVERIES OF PASSENGER AND FREIGHTER AIRCRAFT: 34,900 UNITS

Source: Airbus GMF 2017 Rounded figures to the nearest 10

24,810

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Very Large AircraftTwin-aisleSingle-aisle

% units 71% 25% 4%

46% 44% 10%% value

8,690

1,410

5.3$US trillion

008 Executive summary

NEW AIRCRAFT DEMAND PASSENGER AND FREIGHTERS

Source: Airbus GMF 2017

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT ABOVE 100 SEATS AND FREIGHTER AIRCRAFT ABOVE 10 TONS

Source: Airbus GMF 2017 Rounded figures to the nearest 10

20172026

20272036

20172036

SHARE OF 2017-2036 NEW DELIVERIES

AFRICA 350 700 1,050 3%

ASIA-PACIFIC 6,140 8,140 14,280 41%

CIS 340 860 1,200 3%

EUROPE 2,640 4,180 6,820 20%

LATIN AMERICA 940 1,730 2,670 8%

MIDDLE EAST 1,260 1,270 2,530 7%

NORTH AMERICA 2,360 3,260 5,620 16%

FREIGHTERS 410 320 730 2%

WORLD TOTAL 14,440 20,460 34,900 100%

Converted

Remarketed& stay

in service

34,170

34,900

1,220

5,950

730

11,710

12,870

1,160

PassengerFleet

NewDeliveries

Retired

FreighterFleet


02Demand forair travel

011Demand for air travel

Airlines had an operating result of

$ 58.3billion in 2016

JET FUEL PRICES FORECAST TO RECOVER IN THE MEDIUM TERM

Source: IHS Energy, Airbus GMF 2017

Jet fuel price (US$ per gallon)Current US$

History Forecast

2016 US$

0

1

2

3

4

202520202015201020052000

THOUGHTS ON THE SHORT TERM_

• Oil and jet fuel prices are an important component in airline operating costs, with their relatively low levels, whilst not the whole story, playing a large part in the improved airline profitability during the period. Airlines had an operating result of $58.3 billion in 2016.

• In the short to medium term, forecasts suggest that oil and jet fuel prices will recover over time, although may not reach the peak levels of the past.

012 Demand for air travel

RPK growth (%)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010200520001995

PASSENGER TRAFFIC YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH

2016

Number of aircraft

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2010200520001995* Western-built passenger aircraft ≥100 seats

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT* IN SERVICE

2016

• At time of writing, leading indicators for the industry remain positive, with aircraft more productive and the share of stored aircraft in the fleet continuing to fall. Combined with record load factors all are positive signs that supply and demand are currently well balanced and that the airlines and fleet continue to operate more efficiently.

• Passenger traffic grew impressively again in 2016, with 6.3% year over year growth, supporting an increase in the passenger fleet of aircraft over 100 seats to over 19,000 aircraft, and also supporting record levels of deliveries from the manufacturers.

IMPRESSIVE TRAFFIC GROWTH, SUPPORTING MORE AIRCRAFT IN SERVICE

Source: ICAO, Ascend, Airbus GMF 2017


Fixed Investment

GDP

EXPORTSIMPORTS

Working Age Population

Industrial Production Index

TOTAL POPULATION

Unemployment

EMPLOYMENTUrban Population

Nominal Change in Inventory

Labor Force

Disposable personal income

Domestic Investment

Government Consumption

Crude Oil Price

CONSUMPTIONPRIVATE

THE LONG TERM_

• Whilst GDP remains an important driver for air transport, it is clear that it is not the only factor that drives air traffic growth. In its traffic forecast, Airbus uses as many as 15 different explanatory variables. From the word cloud below you can see many of these different variables, with their size representing the number of times they have been used across the more than 100 traffic flows modelled in the Airbus traffic forecast.

• Other drivers that define where and how air travel will develop are factors such as the evolution of airline business model, liberalisation, and tourism development.

• By examining some real world examples it can be seen how these drivers can shape and influence markets, and will ultimately determine what characteristics such as range and size will be delivered in the future by manufacturers.


THE TRANS-ATLANTIC EXAMPLE_

• The trans-Atlantic market is a good example of how several drivers can stimulate growth even on a market which is considered mature. In fact this market has grown 50% in the last 15 years.

• Whilst many of the routes have their origins at the start of the air transportation era, significant growth was enabled by bi-lateral agreements on both sides of the Atlantic. A second period of growth has been enabled by economic growth in both the US and Europe where real GDP has grown ~30% in the last 20 years, but also as new business models like the Low cost Carriers (LCCs) have entered the market.

• Taking the London New York route as an example, origin and destination traffic has grown by 25% in the last 3 years. In the first half of 2016, low cost carriers transported 7% of the passengers.

RPK (Billion)PASSENGER TRAFFIC BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE US

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

201520102005200019951990

+186%

+47%

NORTH ATLANTIC TRAFFIC HAS GROWN NEARLY 50% IN THE LAST 15 YEARS

Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Airbus

The trans-Atlantic market has grown

50%in the last 15 years


0

50

100

150

200

250

20162015201420132012201120102009

LON-NYC TRAFFIC STIMULATED BY LCC’S AND EXISTING OPERATORS

Source: Sabre, Airbus GMF 2017

• Interestingly the incumbent carriers and alliances have also grown the number of passengers they are carrying.

• These additional passengers, at least in part, have chosen to travel due to the lower prices on offers, which have also resulted in lower yields and a greater focus on operational efficiency and equipment by the airlines in recent years.


LIBERALISATION & TOURISM_

• As well as growth on existing routes, positive political activity between states can also lead to growth, due to the fact that organic growth has been constrained. Two recent examples are Iran and Cuba.

• Already the agreement with Iran has led to more capacity being added from 2015 to 2016, with 10% more international capacity being added, with double digit growth to many destinations.

• The Iranian government would like to grow tourism, another key driver for aviation growth. Reports have stated that they would like to grow the number of tourism arrivals from 4.8 million in 2014, to 20 million by 2025.

• Already today, tourism infrastructure is being built with three new hotels opening in Tehran since 2015. One major hotel chain’s CEO has said given the size of population and economy he sees capacity for a hundred hotels for their chain alone.

0 1 2 3 4Kazakhstan

GreeceAfghanistan

FranceRussia

UKAzerbaijan

IndiaOman

AustriaThailand

ItalyMalaysia

KuwaitIraq

ChinaGermany

QatarTurkey

UAE

STRONG CAPACITY INCREASE TO ALL MAJOR MARKETS FROM/TO IRAN IN 2016

Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2017

International capacity growth in 2016 for Iran

10%


• Cuba is another example where improving geo-politics has allowed for enhanced air links with ten US airlines starting operations in 2016, and more than 300,000 monthly seats offered today, twice that offered in 2008. Market dynamics will continue to evolve as airlines match capacity to demand, infrastructure for visitors to the island develop and as geo-politics in the region evolves further.

• Aviation mega-cities are an important component of the world’s aviation network today and will be a more important part in the future. It is no surprise therefore that Euromonitor data published in 2017, show all but one of the top ten cities in 2015, by visitor numbers is either an Aviation Mega-city today, or in the future.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2017/012016/102016/072016/042016/01

Monthly seats offered between the US and Cuba (thousand)

ALREADY MORE THAN 300K MONTHLY SEATS OFFERED BETWEEN USA AND CUBA

Source: OAG, Airbus


International tourist arrivals0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Hong Kong, China

Bangkok, Thailand

London, UK

Singapore

Paris, France

Macau

Dubai, UAE

Istanbul, Turkey

New York City, US

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

26.7m

18.7m

18.6m

16.9m

15m

14.3m

14.3m

12.4m

12.3m

12.2m

Rise in visitor numbers in percentage0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Osaka, Japan

Kyoto, Japan

Chiang Mai, Thailand

Tokyo, Japan

Agra, India

Delhi, India

Mumbai, India

Milan, Italy

Mecca, Saudi Arabia

Pattaya, Thailand

52%

48%

40%

35%

28%

26%

26%

17%

18%

17%

AT A GLANCE - TOP 10 MOST VISITED CITIES IN 2015

Source: Euromonitor, Jan 2017, Airbus

AT A GLANCE - TOP 10 CITIES WITH LARGEST VISITOR GROWTH IN 2015

Source: Euromonitor, Jan 2017, Airbus


03Network & Traffic forecast

PASSENGER TRAFFIC CONTINUES TO GROW_

• Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) grew 6.3% in 2016, as compared to 2015, according to ICAO figures which were preliminary at the time of writing.

• This represents an impressive 3.7 billion passengers carried by air in 2016.

• Over half of the world’s tourists who travel across international borders each year are transported by air.

• Air passengers benefited from oil prices which remained relatively low, with airlines able to choose between stimulating the market through lower yields and therefore ticket prices, and their margins.

• Air traffic continues to prove its resilience to slow economic growth by outperforming global GDP, demonstrating the world’s appreciation of the benefits aviation brings.

• For the next 20 years, the Airbus GMF forecasts a 4.4% global annual air traffic growth, despite some downward revision of future economic growth by a number of forecasters in several regions of the world. In our forecast the first decade will enjoy a 4.9% increase per year, with 4.1% average annual growth for the last decade, a lower figure but growth in those years based on absolute traffic numbers higher than today.

• We continue to monitor the reliability and validity of the Airbus GMF forecast. As an example, our GMF 2000 forecast continues to track the long term trend and our latest forecast, despite significant market perturbations in the years following its production.

Air transport is a growth market

60%growth over the last ten year

More than double since 9/11

GMF long term validity

GMF 2000long term forecast is still in line with our latest forecast

022 Network & Traffic forecast

AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO BE RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS


AIRBUS GMF PREDICTING LONG TERM DEMAND


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015201020052000199519901985198019751970

World annual traf�c (trillion RPK*)Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis

AsianCrisis

FinancialCrisis

WTC AttackSARS

+60%

+110%

*RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometres

World annual traf�c (trillion RPK)

HistoryGMF 2000 forecastGMF 2017: 4.4% growth p.a.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2035203020252020201520102005200019951990

World annual traf�c (RPKs - trillions )


TRAFFIC FORECAST_

• Asia-Pacific will lead world traffic by 2036, with a three fold increase in the traffic serving this region by the end of the forecast period.

• Traffic between emerging countries is forecast to grow at 6.2% per annum, and will represent a growing share of air traffic, from 29% of world traffic in 2016 up to 40% by 2036.

North America

Latin America

Europe

Middle East

Asia-Paci�cAfrica

CIS

2016

2036

Based on leg RPKs

2.4%

4.1%


• Domestic China will become the largest traffic flow before the end of the forecast period. Domestic Chinese traffic is forecast to almost quadruple, with Domestic USA increasing by 50% from an already high base.

• The three major flows connecting Western Europe are all expected to develop: Western-Europe – USA, Intra-Western Europe and Western-Europe – Middle East forecast to grow 1.8, 1.6 and 2.5 times respectively.

• Amongst the Top 20 traffic flows, 50% will involve Asia-Pacific and 25% will involve the Middle East.

North America

Latin America

Europe

Middle East

Asia-Paci�cAfrica

CIS

2016

2036

Based on leg RPKs

5.3%

3.4%

5.6%

6.7%

3.9%

ASIAN TRAFFIC SET TO GROW STRONGLY



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20362016

28%41%

32%30%

40%29%

Advanced-Emerging

Emerging-Emerging

Advanced-Advanced

Traf�c share (%)

Billion RPK (legs)

TOP 20 TRAFFIC FLOWS IN 2036

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000South America - USA

Intra Middle EastDomestic Brazil

Asia advanced - PRCAsia advanced - Asia emerging

Western Europe - South AmericaCentral Europe - Western Europe

Western Europe - PRCAsia emerging - PRC

Asia emerging - Middle EastPRC - USA

Domestic IndiaIndian sub-continent - Middle East

Middle East - USADomestic Asia emerging

Western Europe - Middle EastIntra Western Europe

Western Europe - USADomestic USADomestic PRC

x1.6x1.8

x3.7x4.5

x3.4

x2.5

x5.4x3.6

x3.4x3.8

x2.2x2.6

x2.0x2.5x3.0x2.6x3.1x2.3

x1.5x3.6

2016

2036

DOMESTIC CHINESE TRAFFIC FLOW TO BE NUMBER ONE



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20362016

28%41%

32%30%

40%29%

Advanced-Emerging

Emerging-Emerging

Advanced-Advanced

Traf�c share (%)

CAGR

2.5%CAGR

4.8%CAGR

6.2%

Billion RPK (legs)

TOP 20 FASTEST GROWING FLOWS

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000PRC-USA

Middle East - Sub Sahara AfricaDomestic PRC

Domestic Asia emergingPRC - South Africa

Indian sub-continent - PRCAsia advanced - Indian sub-continent

Indian sub-continent - JapanAsia emerging - PRC

Middle East - South AfricaAsia emerging - Indian sub-continent

Middle East - PRCMiddle East - USA

Canada - Middle EastMiddle East - South America

Central America - Middle EastDomestic India

Indian sub-continent - PRCSub Sahara Africa - PRC

North Africa - PRC x6.2

x4.5x4.5

x5.1

x4.1x4.0

x4.0

x3.7x3.7

x3.7x3.7

x3.7

x3.6

x5.9x5.9

x5.1

x5.4

x3.8

x3.6

x3.6

2016

2036

TRAFFIC BETWEEN EMERGING MARKETS TO REPRESENT A HIGHER SHARE OF WORLD TRAFFIC


TOP 20 FASTEST GROWING FLOWS OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS



ORIGIN & DESTINATION PASSENGER FORECAST_

Taking Origin and Destination passengers gives a better feel for the future volume of passengers by flow as the distance component included in RPKs or RPMs is removed.

TOP 20 PASSENGER FLOWS IN 2036

Million Passengers

x3.6

x5.5

x2.5

x2.6

x3.3

x1.4

x3.1

x1.8

x2.2

x2.3

x3.9

x3.1

x1.4

2016

2036

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Intra Middle East

Asia emerging - PRC

Intra Asia advanced

Western Europe - Middle East

Domestic Australia/New Zealand

Indian sub-continent - Middle East

Western Europe - USA

Asia advanced - Asia emerging

Domestic South America

Domestic Turkey

Domestic Asia advanced

Asia advanced - PRC

Domestic Brazil

Domestic Europe

Central Europe - Western Europe

Domestic india

Intra Western Europe

Domestic USA

Domestic Asia emerging

Domestic PRC

x3.7

x1.4

x1.6

x3.2

x2.6

x2.5

x2.2


In terms of Origin and Destination passengers, some interesting results can be highlighted from our forecast.

• Almost 1.6 billion passengers are expected to travel within China in 2036, almost four times the number of passengers that travelled by air in 2016.

• The number of Domestic Indian passengers is expected to grow almost six times in the next 20 years, reaching the level as Domestic USA is today.

TOP 20 PASSENGER FLOWS IN 2036

Million Passengers

x3.6

x5.5

x2.5

x2.6

x3.3

x1.4

x3.1

x1.8

x2.2

x2.3

x3.9

x3.1

x1.4

2016

2036

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Intra Middle East

Asia emerging - PRC

Intra Asia advanced

Western Europe - Middle East

Domestic Australia/New Zealand

Indian sub-continent - Middle East

Western Europe - USA

Asia advanced - Asia emerging

Domestic South America

Domestic Turkey

Domestic Asia advanced

Asia advanced - PRC

Domestic Brazil

Domestic Europe

Central Europe - Western Europe

Domestic india

Intra Western Europe

Domestic USA

Domestic Asia emerging

Domestic PRC

x3.7

x1.4

x1.6

x3.2

x2.6

x2.5

x2.2

TOP 20 PASSENGER FLOWS IN 2036 (ORIGIN & DESTINATION)

Source: annualised Sept. 2016 data from Sabre, Airbus GMF2017


04Demand forpassenger aircraft

031Demand for passenger aircraft

DEMAND FOR PASSENGER AIRCRAFT_

• In 2016, over 140 countries added 5% or more capacity (ASKs) than in 2015. Of these, nearly 80 countries added more than 10%. This combined with traffic growth above the long term trend is driving demand for new aircraft today and into the future.

• More than simply adding capacity, the world’s airlines are also increasingly efficient in the way that they are using aircraft. Average load factors, that is the proportion of the seats filled in the aircraft, are at an all-time high at around 80%. Allowing for seasonality it will be difficult to move this mark significantly higher.

• Taking into account growth in average aircraft size, increased average utilization levels as well as higher average load factors, aircraft are an impressive 50% more productive in terms of traffic (RPKs) today than 20 years ago. A significant improvement coming from both the airlines’ operational efficiency and the state of the art aircraft being delivered today.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

>10%[5% - 10%][0% - 5%]<0%

032 Demand for passenger aircraft

• The Airbus forecast for passenger traffic and deliveries by broad seat category e.g. single-aisle, twin-aisle, VLA were detailed earlier. But this top level view hides some of the trends developing for demand in the various aircraft categories.

• For some time now an overlap has existed between operations of twin-aisle and single-aisle aircraft types. For example twin-aisle aircraft are used more often on routes less than 2,000nm than single-aisle types are on the routes longer than 2,000nm.

• The use of twin-aisle on short-haul operations, that is routes less than 2,000nm, has increased by 26% in six years.

• In Asia-Pacific 22% of all short-haul operations are performed by wide-body types.

• To complicate the picture whilst twin-aisle use has increased on short-haul routes, their overall share on these routes has decreased.

IMPRESSIVE AIR TRANSPORT RESULT IN 2016 WITH MORE THAN 140 COUNTRIES ADDING 5% OR MORE CAPACITY AND LOAD FACTORS AT A RECORD HIGH

Source: ICAO, OAG, Airbus

World passenger load factors (%)LOAD FACTORS

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

20162010200520001995


Others Intra Asia-Paci�cTraf�c captured by wide-bodies on short-haul sectors in ASK (billion)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

20162010

World traf�c by sector length in ASK (trillion)

WB below 2,000nm WB operated above 2,000nm

SA above 2,000nm SA operated below 2,000nm

0

1

2

3

4

6

8

10

9

7

5

2015201020052000

WIDE-BODY AND SINGLE-AISLE OPERATIONS OVERLAP


USE OF WIDE-BODIES ON SHORT-HAUL SECTORS HAS INCREASED BY 26% IN SIX YEARS

Source: OAG and Airbus GMF 2017 *Short haul: below 2,000 nm


• Clearly capacity needs on these shorter sectors is one of the key drivers for the use of twin–aisle types, but there is also evidence that congestion, particularly in Asia is another, with many airports in the region operationally constrained.

• With new low Direct Operating Cost (DOC) twin-aisle types like the A330neo and larger long range single-aisle types like the A321neo, the boundary between the single-aisle and twin-aisle worlds will continue to blur.

• Whilst the performance characteristics of aircraft is important for future aircraft decision making, what is possible in the cabin is increasingly having an influence. The mix of classes, comfort, connectivity, the ability to upgrade, ancillary revenue options, business model characteristics are also key. We asked our cabin experts to give us few pointers to the future.

MANY AIRPORTS IN ASIA-PACIFIC CONGESTED

Source: FlightStats (July. 2015), Airbus GMF 2017

Within Asia Pacific

22%of short-haul routes operated by wide-body aircraft


CABIN - WHAT’S TRENDING?_

Airline Business Models

Airline groups continue to grow their influence in the market as they evolve to cover different cabin-related airline business models. Hybrid airline business models are also developing, particularly towards medium/ long-range operations as part of growth strategies, including a desire to exploit new market opportunities and a way to effectively differentiate themselves. For example full service carriers adding cabin densification (more seats where possible) and Low Cost Carriers increasingly attracted by business markets and longer range operations.

• 10 out of 30 largest airlines have a LCC in their group

• 9 out of 10 largest LCCs target business travellers

Ancillary Revenues (AR)

The main ancillary revenue developments today are taking place in the US and Europe, with Asia-Pacific following. There is a strong focus on single-aisle aircraft operations, given its importance in the northern hemisphere and extending to twin-aisle operations with an increasing relevance of cabin-related ancillary revenues. Baggage-related elements, flexible seating and catering are all a focus with connectivity likely to be the future core enabler.

• $ 59.2 bn ancillary revenues estimated to have been generated in 2015

• x 2.6 growth of global ancillary revenues since 2007

• 30-40% of ancillary revenues are generated through the cabin


Connectivity

On-board connectivity is reaching a critical mass across both long and short-range aircraft, now moving towards a full broadband capability. Airlines today are increasingly exploring digital business models in order to drive a more personalised passenger travel experience and enhance revenue generation.

• 74 airlines offered in-flight connectivity in 2016

• More than 16,000 aircraft forecast to be equipped with in-flight Wi-Fi by 2025

Passenger Landscape

An increasing number of «always-online» digital travellers are demanding connectivity along the entire travel chain. These digital passengers continue to explore and push innovative travel business models which in turn increasingly affects cabin and airline revenue streams.

• 100% smartphone penetration of millennials by 2018, has been predicted

• 15% of passengers carry three mobile devices today


20-year new deliveries Typically Single-aisle

Typically Twin-aisle

incl. Very Large aircraft

Neutral seating categories

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

450+400350300250210175150125100

1,297

3,157

7,404

US$2.4 trillion

US$2.2 trillion

US$ 0.5 trillion

8,353

4,596

2,694 2,789

1,5661,126 1,184

GMF 2017 NEW PASSENGER A/C DEMAND BY NEUTRAL SEATING CATEGORY



Passenger aircraft above 100 seats

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30000

35,000

40,000

2036 New deliveriesBeginning 2017

18,890

21,230

40,120

34,16620-year

new deliveries

12,936

5,954

Growth

Replacement

Stay

DEMAND FOR PASSENGER AIRCRAFT SUMMARY (EXCL. FREIGHTERS)

PASSENGER FLEET IN SERVICE EVOLUTION 2016-2036



05Demandby region

041Demand by region

Asia-PacificMORE LIBERALISATION, MORE PASSENGERS, MORE CONNECTIVITY

ECONOMY_

• Although India is now outpacing China in terms of economic growth, Asia-Pacific economic development remains strongly linked to China and its transition to a service/domestic consumption economy. Meanwhile, new manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam are also emerging in Asia.

• Domestic sources of growth - particularly private consumption - led by China’s economic transition to services will play a larger role in coming years.

• Asia-Pacific will continue to lead world economic growth with forecasts suggesting average real GDP growth of +4.1% per year over the next 20 years.

043Demand by region - Asia-Pacific

FIVE OF THE TOP TEN CONTRIBUTORS TO 2016 TRAFFIC GROWTH CAME FROM ASIA Country of departure; domestic fully counted. Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2017

China

USA

India

UAE

Spain

UK

Qatar

Indonesia

Thailand

Vietnam

0 20 40 60 80 100

+12.7%

+5.2%

+12.6%

+7.7%

+11.6%

+6.3%

+21.4%

+9.7%

+9.2%

+25.6%

2016 YEARLY CAPACITY GROWTH IN VOLUME (BILLION ASK) AND GROWTH RATE

TRENDS_

• The Asia-Pacific is a diverse and dynamic region, with the evolution of aviation both in the past and future not possible to simply characterise as a whole. From South East Asia with its important global hubs and the influence of deregulation through ASEAN, to North East Asia with its mix of more mature markets and growing LCC presence, all heavily influenced by the burgeoning Chinese aviation markets.

• Another fact is the importance of this region as a whole to the growth of aviation at a global level both today and in the future. As well as the region’s airlines leading others in terms of traffic, half of the top ten countries contributing the most traffic growth in 2016, were from Asia-Pacific.

• Helping to drive this growth is the growing presence of the low cost carriers (LCCs) aided by deregulation and a significant intra-regional market.

• As well as significantly growing both seats offered and flights in very few years, it is also clear that the average size of the aircraft offered by these airlines has also grown significantly. In just ten years, average aircraft capacity operated by these airlines has grown from 133 to 165 seats, almost 25%.

• As well as seats, the average distance flown by the LCCs in Asia-Pacific has grown by over 200 km or 21% since 2002, from around 950 to 1,150 km in 2016.

044 Demand by region - Asia-Pacific

ASIA-PACIFIC LOW COST CARRIERS GROWING CAPACITY FASTER THAN FREQUENCY Source: OAG – September of each year, Airbus GMF 2017

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2015201020052000

LCCS NUMBER OF SEATS OFFERED AND FLIGHTS WITHIN ASIA-PACIFICSeats & Flights - Base 100 in 2000

Seats offered

Average aircraft capacity/�ight

133

Flights

154

165

• With these developments the seats offered by LCC’s in the region now represents 25% of the seats on domestic and intra-regional flows. This compares to 42% in Europe and the CIS and 31% for North America, suggesting more opportunity.

• Looking at a country level, the diversity of Asia-Pacific is again evident with Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia at similar levels to Europe in terms of LCC penetration, with China and Japan for example still apparently with room for further development given the right conditions.

• China is a key market both at a regional and global level and has seen rapid growth in air service and passenger numbers. Chinese domestic traffic has quadrupled in the last 10 years for example, with international traffic more than doubling.

• Outbound tourism is one such source of growth with the number of Chinese tourists growing rapidly in recent years. Destinations in Asia like Thailand, Korea and Japan figure strongly in the top 10 unsurprisingly. However, destinations further away such as the US and Europe are also increasingly popular, especially with the easing of border procedures in some cases.


CHINESE TOURIST HORIZONS GROWING Hong Kong and Macau not shown. Source: UNWTO, Airbus GMF 2017

Outbound tourism from China - Top ten countries of destination (millions of tourists/year)

2015

2010

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Malaysia

Vietnam

Myanmar

France

Singapore

USA

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Thailand

• According to some estimates the outbound China market is predicted to double to over 200 million travelers annually by 2020.

• With a new open skies agreement, China is Australia’s fastest growing and highest spending international visitor market. More than 1 million Chinese tourists visited Australia 2015-16 (up 22.3% from the year before), and they spent almost US$7 billion during their stay.

• These tourists and other travellers to and from Australia and China have also benefited from increased connectivity with the number of airport pairs having doubled since 2014.

• It is a similar story between China and the US where the number of airport pairs have doubled since 2013.

“SUPER HUBS” COMING TO CHINA?

By 2030 Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou will be firmly placed in the world’s top 10 cities as measured by GDP; economic strength underpinned by the domestic and international connectivity only aviation can bring. Already major hubs, with Beijing for example handling 8.1 million passengers per month compared to Dubai at ~7.0 million, over 90% comes from origin and destination traffic. In the future, there is potential for these airports to become “super hubs” as they develop a greater share of transit traffic to more efficiently connect China to the rest of the world.


THE IMPACT OF MORE OPEN SKIES IS SIGNIFICANT Source: OAG (September data), Airbus GMF 2017

2014

2016

Regularly served airport-pairs between China and Australia

Number of airport-pairs

2014-2016

between China and Australia


5671,328

SmallTwin-Aisle

IntermediateTwin-Aisle

VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

2,569

9,812

NorthAmerica

4.5%

LatinAmerica

5.2%

MiddleEast

6.0%

CIS

5.5%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional

* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats ** 2016-2036 CAGR

Real Trade

4.3%

Intra-regional& domestic6.0%Inter-regional4.8%

20166,139

203616,977

Totaltraf�c5.5%

Real GDP4.1%

Fleet in service20 year

newdeliveries

14,276

Total RPKtraf�c growth

2016-2026 2026-2036 2016-2036

4.9%4.1% 4.4%

6.2%

4.8%5.5%

Africa

7.6%

MRO VALUE$664bn

NEW PILOTS219,890NEW TECHS228,200

Fleet in service evolution

Stay in service &Remarketed 2,701

6,139

New deliveries

14,276

16,977

Growth10,838

Fleet size*

2036Beginning2017

Replacement3,438

Servicesdemand forecast

Asia-Paci�c

World

Number of new pax aircraftNew deliveries by segment

Asia-Paci�c

6.0%

Europe

3.3%


5671,328

SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

2,569

9,812

NorthAmerica

4.5%

LatinAmerica

5.2%

MiddleEast

6.0%

CIS

5.5%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


Real Trade

4.3%


20166,139

203616,977

Totaltraf�c5.5%

Real GDP4.1%


newdeliveries

14,276


2016-2026 2026-2036 2016-2036

4.9%4.1% 4.4%

6.2%

4.8%5.5%

Africa

7.6%

MRO VALUE$664bn



Stay in service &Remarketed 2,701

6,139

New deliveries

14,276

16,977

Growth10,838

Fleet size*

2036Beginning2017

Replacement3,438


Asia-Paci�c

World

Number of new pax aircraftNew deliveries by segment

Asia-Paci�c

6.0%

Europe

3.3%


EuropeMORE AIR TRAVEL: MORE FOR PERSONAL REASONS

ECONOMY_

• After a decade of challenges and despite some political uncertainties (e.g. Brexit), European consumer and business confidence are recovering.

• European private consumption to remain the main driver of future economic growth.

• Real GDP growth forecast at +1.7% per year between 2016 and 2036.

051Demand by region - Europe

TRENDS_

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Bulgaria Czech Republic

Denmark

France Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

United Kingdom

0,1

1

10

Propensity to travel2016 trips per capita

2016 real GDP per capita (2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

Switzerland

EUROPEANS ARE AT VARIOUS STAGES OF ECONOMIC AND AIR TRAVEL DEVELOPMENT

Notes: Passengers originating from respective country Bubble size proportional to country population Nonlinear regression weighted by country population Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017

Propensity to travel In 2015, each European flew

1.2trips on average

• Many regions are diverse in terms of their people, economic development and in terms of aviation their propensity to fly. Europe is no exception with some 50 states and more than 200 languages with their propensity to fly distributed along a significant proportion of the curve, with a spread of countries both above and below the trend line. Those countries positioned further to the left and below the trend line have the potential for more airw travel as GDP per capita develops.

• As a whole the average European took 1.2 trips per person, but as can be seen the European picture is more complex than that.

052 Demand by region - Europe

FLOWS INVOLVING EUROPE REPRESENTED 23% OF GLOBAL ASK GROWTH IN 2016

Leap year effect corrected. Thomas Cook UK reporting to OAG in 2016 is removed. Flows with negative growth aggregated into “Other”. Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2017

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

201620152014

Year-on-year traf�c growth in volume (billion ASK)

Intra W Europe

W Europe - USA

C Europe - W Europe

W Europe - Middle East

Middle East - USA

Other

Domestic PRC

Domestic USA

Domestic Asia Emerging

Asia Emerging - PRC

PRC - USA

Domestic India

W : Western

C : Central

23%

• Positively, forecasts suggest that the European population will continue to grow in terms of wealth, supporting the private consumption component of GDP which is becoming more important as an explanatory variable for passenger traffic growth.

• European flows accounted for about 23% of global capacity growth in 2016, as compared to 2015, a relatively stable share of the additional growth over the last three years. The trans-Atlantic market often considered mature (see case study in the Demand for Air Travel section) continues to add capacity to the network, with Intra-western Europe stimulated by new flyers and low cost operations the most significant of European flows in 2016 for growth, with about 60% of the European capacity added on this flow.


ALMOST 90% OF TRAVEL IN EUROPE IS FOR PERSONAL REASONS

Source: Eurostat, Airbus GMF 2017

Travellers (Million)

Trips made by EU-28 residents by purpose, duration and destination, 2014*

Professional, business

Other personal

Visits to relatives and friends

Holidays, leisure and recreation

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

OutbondDomestic4 nights or overFrom 1 to 3 nightsAll trips

~90%

48%

38%

43%26%

62%42%

42%

19%

66%

11%

4%

15%

36%

12%

4%

5%

7%

5%

3%

12%

*UK: 2013 data used

• Some 90% of European travellers state their purpose of travel is for personal reasons, this compared to the US where ~70% state this reason. Working outside of home countries with the subsequent need to visit friends and relatives (VFR) and a growing culture of short breaks stimulated by the availability of low fares to many city or touristic destinations have helped stimulate intra-European air travel in recent years.


• As part of this evolution, the Low Cost Carriers have gradually increased the average distance of the routes they are flying in Europe. Today, routes are on average 35% longer (+290km) compared to 2002.

• As well as the average distance for these operations growing, so too is the average capacity operated, growing from 147 seats in 2006 to 165 seats per flight in 2016. This growth in size is largely driven by demand on existing routes.

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

201520102005

Average distance �own by LCCs within EuropeDistance (Kilometer)

+35%+290km

LOW COST CARRIERS HAVE BEEN OPERATING ON LONGER SECTORS

Source: OAG – September of each year, Airbus GMF 2017


143389

SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

1,039

5,249

Europe

2.9%Asia-

Paci�c

3.3%

NorthAmerica

2.9%

LatinAmerica

3.3%

MiddleEast

4.7%

CIS

3.9%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


Real Trade

2.8%


20164,463

20367,721

Totaltraf�c3.3%

Real GDP1.7%


newdeliveries

6,820


2016-2026 2026-2036 2016-2036

4.9%4.1% 4.4%

3.5%3.0% 3.3%

Africa

3.5%

MRO VALUE$364bn



Stay in service &Remarketed 901

4,463New deliveries

6,820

7,721

Growth3,258

Fleet size*

2036Beginning2017

Replacement3,562


Europe

World

New deliveries by segmentNumber of new pax aircraft


143389

SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

1,039

5,249

Europe

2.9%Asia-

Paci�c

3.3%

NorthAmerica

2.9%

LatinAmerica

3.3%

MiddleEast

4.7%

CIS

3.9%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


Real Trade

2.8%


20164,463

20367,721

Totaltraf�c3.3%

Real GDP1.7%


newdeliveries

6,820


2016-2026 2026-2036 2016-2036

4.9%4.1% 4.4%

3.5%3.0% 3.3%

Africa

3.5%

MRO VALUE$364bn




4,463New deliveries

6,820

7,721

Growth3,258

Fleet size*

2036Beginning2017

Replacement3,562


Europe

World



ECONOMY_

• US economic expansion is becoming more balanced, with consumer spending, residential construction, business fixed investment and government spending all contributing to economic growth and compensating for a strong dollar impact on trade.

• Consumer spending, supported by growth in employment and real incomes, is compensating for a sluggish global economy, strong dollar and excess inventory headwinds.

• Real GDP growth is expected to hold up reasonably well according to forecasts with an average +2.1% per year in the 2016-2036 period, with greater business fixed investment and R&D spending offsetting the slowdown in labour force growth.

North AmericaPROFITING FROM GROWTH

059Demand by region - North America

TRENDS_

• From the first revenue flight, the first passenger, the low cost revolution and the drive for deregulation through bi-laterals, the region has always been at the forefront of positive developments and innovation in the industry. Today, the US airline industry, a significant part of the region, is also at the forefront of profitability with US airlines responsible for 61% of global airline profitability in 2015, and likely to be prominent again when final figures for 2016 are released.

• This positive result was in part delivered by low oil prices but also a continued focus on other cost, as well as maintaining/improving revenue through ancillary revenues.

• The airlines in the region have also embarked on significant fleet renewal with the latest generations of aircraft types, which should help them meet increased demand and the need to improve costs in the coming years.

• The short-haul market continues to dominate the North American market, with the US domestic market the world’s largest today. However, the long-haul market (routes over 2,000 nm) has seen the number of seats offered grow by a third since 2010.

EBIT($ Billion) Net pro�t ($ Billion)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2016e201520142013201220112010

NORTH AMERICAN AIRLINE PROFITABILITY HAS INCREASED SINCE 2011

Source: ICAO, IATA, Airbus GMF 2017

2015 net profit North american

61%of global airline profit

060 Demand by region - North America

• This additional capacity has been possible with the increase in the propensity to travel of the people in this market. A recent survey for example has highlighted the development of the US market, suggesting that the flying population had grown from 21% in 1971 to 49% in 2016. From these, the average number of trips was just over four per year, with 51% travelling for leisure, 31% for business, 18% for other reasons including VFR (visiting friends and relatives).

SEATS OFFERED ON LONG-HAUL FLIGHTS GREW FASTER THAN ON SHORT-HAUL FLIGHTS

Source: OAG (September data annualised), Airbus GMF 2017 Short haul: below 2,000 nm

Seats offered distribution in 2016Evolution of the capacity offered from/to USA and Canada

20m seats

80m seats

Short-haul

Long-haul

Seats offered evolution (Base 100 in 2010)Evolution of the capacity offered from �rst passenger, from/to USA and Canada

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2016201520142013201220112010

Long-haulShort-haul

+34%

+7%


• Today, these passengers are flown in operations which are extremely efficient in terms of aircraft occupancy. In the US domestic market for example load factors are over 85%, whilst for international flights 82% of the seats are filled on average. With seasonality meaning that pushing load factors even higher will be a challenge, larger aircraft is one simple solution. This solution is already in evidence; at time of writing, the number of the larger A321neo ordered by airlines in North America, exceeds the number of A320neo ordered.

• This trend is also evident when the Canadian market is examined, where the seats offered has increased, with flights offered relatively flat, indicating the growth has been achieved through growing aircraft size.

Loads Factors (%)US Airlines load factors

InternationalTotal Domestic

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

jan-16jan-15jan-14jan-13jan-12jan-11jan-10jan-09jan-08jan-07jan-06jan-05jan-04jan-03jan-02jan-01jan-00

End 2016 load factors Total:

84.3%Domestic:

85.3%International:

81.8%


Loads Factors (%)US Airlines load factors

InternationalTotal Domestic

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

jan-16jan-15jan-14jan-13jan-12jan-11jan-10jan-09jan-08jan-07jan-06jan-05jan-04jan-03jan-02jan-01jan-00

US AIRLINE ACHIEVING WORLD-CLASS LOAD FACTORS

Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Airbus GMF 2017

Note: Data from all US air carrier domestic and international, scheduled passenger flights

Seats & Flights - Base 100 in 2002Number of seats offered and �ights from-to Canada

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002

Seats offeredFlights

CAPACITY FROM-TO CANADA HAS GROWN FASTER THAN FREQUENCY

Source: OAG – September of each year, Airbus GMF


26186

SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

654

4,754

LatinAmerica

3.9%

MiddleEast

7.8%

Asia-Paci�c

4.5%

CIS

4.6%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


Real Trade

3.6%


20164,422

20366,318

Totaltraf�c3.4%

Real GDP2.1%


newdeliveries

5,620


2016-2026 2026-2036 2016-2036

4.9%4.1% 4.4%

3.5% 3.3% 3.4%

Africa

4.4%

MRO VALUE$321bn




4,422 New deliveries

5,620

6,318

Growth1,896

Fleet size*

2036Beginning2017

Replacement3,724


North America

World

New deliveries by segment

NorthAmerica

2.0%

Europe

2.9%

Number of new pax aircraft


26186

SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

654

4,754

LatinAmerica

3.9%

MiddleEast

7.8%

Asia-Paci�c

4.5%

CIS

4.6%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


Real Trade

3.6%


20164,422

20366,318

Totaltraf�c3.4%

Real GDP2.1%


newdeliveries

5,620


2016-2026 2026-2036 2016-2036

4.9%4.1% 4.4%

3.5% 3.3% 3.4%

Africa

4.4%

MRO VALUE$321bn




4,422 New deliveries

5,620

6,318

Growth1,896

Fleet size*

2036Beginning2017

Replacement3,724


North America

World


NorthAmerica

2.0%

Europe

2.9%



Middle EastINTRA–REGIONAL GROWTH, WHILST CONNECTING THE EAST WITH THE WEST

ECONOMY_

• Low oil prices and fiscal tightening are currently restraining economic growth.

• However, the Middle Eastern economic outlook remains supported by its substantial petroleum resources, proximity to the energy intensive Asian economies, growing tourism potential and strategically important geopolitical location.

• The region’s real GDP is forecast to grow at +3.4% per year over the next 20 years.

067Demand by region - Middle East

TRENDS_

• It is not news that the Middle East and its airlines have been growing. As well as its large world class airports taking advantage of the regions geographical position by offering connections to destinations around the globe, a location which has put the Middle East at the cross roads of trade and transportation between east and west for centuries, the origin and destination traffic to from and within the region has also grown.

• In Dubai for example, 46% of passenger traffic is origin and destination traffic, with a further 17% intra-regional connecting passengers i.e. the start and end of the journey is in the Middle East.

• As a way meeting this demand airlines in the region not only benefit from new state of the art airports but the latest aircraft as well. They have added frequency over time, but more significant is the growth in the number of seats which indicates a significant growth in aircraft size over time. With aircraft like the A380, A350XWB and 777 prominent in airline fleets.

• At the same time the connectivity to and from the region has grown dramatically over the same period with the number of city pairs more than tripling from nearly 200 in 1990 to more than 700 in 2016. Again due to its location most of the growth in routes has been on routes to and from Asia-Pacific and Europe, although the number of routes connecting Africa has doubled.

0

50

100

150

200

250

SeatsFlights

2016201520102005200019951990

Middle East airlines capacity vs frequency growth (base 100 in 1990)

MIDDLE EAST AIRLINES HAVE ADDED CAPACITY TO THE MARKET

Source: OAG (Sept. data of each year), Airbus GMF 2017

068 Demand by region - Middle East

• Despite this investment in new aircraft and rapidly growing operations, the region’s airlines collectively returned a profit in both 2015 and 2016.

• Geopolitics sometimes means that demand in a region can be constrained, when these are eased or removed air traffic in a country and its region can receive a boost. Something that forecasters must consider when putting together aviation demand forecasts.

• A good case study that has emerged recently in the region is Iran.

MORE CONNECTIVITY, PARTICULARLY WITH ASIA-PACIFIC

Source: OAG (September of each year), Airbus GMF 2017

Number of city-pairs with the Middle East 1990:

1992016:

712Number of city-pairs served by Middle East airlines

North AmericaLatin America

CISAsia-Paci�c

EuropeAfrica

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

201520102005200019951990


• Passenger traffic forecasts very often include the impact of economic growth. The positive developments in Iran have been reflected in the economic development projected for the country. In 2015, the GDP forecast for Iran was +3.3% per annum to 2036. Following well reported positive geopolitical developments involving Iran this forecast rose to +4.1% per annum early in 2017 over the same period. This improvement is likely to positively impact long term demand for aviation from and to the country.

• Already ~40 new routes have started, emphasising the effects that liberalisation can have on markets.

Additional airport-pairs from/to Iran in 2016


THE AGREEMENT WITH IRAN HAS ALREADY LED TO MORE AIR SERVICES FROM/TO THE COUNTRY


In 2015, the GDP forecast for Iran was+3.3% per annum to

2036now 4.1%


402

530

SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

512

1,082

NorthAmerica

7.8%

LatinAmerica

8.5%

Asia-Paci�c

6.0%

CIS

5.0%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


Real Trade

3.8%


20161,176

20363,186

Totaltraf�c5.9%

Real GDP3.4%


newdeliveries

2,526


2016-2026 2026-2036 2016-2036

4.9%4.1% 4.4%

7.0%

4.9%

5.9%

Africa

6.3%

MRO VALUE$190bn




1,176

New deliveries

2,526

3,186

Growth2,010

Fleet size*

2036Beginning2017

Replacement516


Middle East

World


MiddleEast

5.4%

Europe

4.7%



Latin America & CaribbeanRECOGNISED BENEFITS OF AVIATION HELPING TO DRIVE GROWTH

ECONOMY_

• After two years of contraction the rebound of commodity prices, Brazil’s abating recession, as well as Argentinian economic progress is leading South America’s slow recovery.

• Despite long-term challenges including inadequate infrastructure, restrictive business environments and income inequality, the long term prospect for Latin America remains positive.

• Real GDP growth is expected to average +3.0% per year over the period 2016-2036.

075Demand by region - Latin America & Caribbean

TRENDS_

• Despite the economic difficulties faced in the region in recent years, total traffic has grown consistently except for 2016, when the decrease in Brazilian domestic traffic caused an overall decline.

• Other domestic markets in the region continued to grow however, with a 50% increase in traffic in the last 10 years.

• Despite its recent decline, Brazil continues to be by far the largest domestic market in Latin America, double the next biggest market in Mexico.

• The international and intra-regional market from/to/within the region has grown, now 40% bigger than it was in 2009.

Monthly seats offered from/to/within Latin America (million) International + intra-regionalDomestic

0

5

10

15

20

25

201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996

076 Demand by region - Latin America & Caribbean

Monthly seats offered from/to/within Latin America (million) International + intra-regionalDomestic

0

5

10

15

20

25

201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996

DOMESTIC MARKETS IN LATIN AMERICA REPRESENT 60% OF TOTAL, DESPITE DECREASING IN 2015 AND 2016

Source: OAG (September data), Airbus GMF 2017


Monthly seats offered from/to/within Latin America (million) excluding domestic traf�c

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

20162014201220102008200620042002200019981996

International

Intra-regional

INTRA-REGIONAL TRAFFIC GROWING FAST, BUT STILL ONLY ONE THIRD OF THE TOTAL


• Intra-regional travel has continued to grow. Given the geography of the region and its ground infrastructure constraints today, there appears opportunity for intra-regional to grow its share further.


• Mexican international traffic continues to lead the region with about three million monthly seats, followed by Brazil and Paraguay. The strengthening of the market between Mexico and the US and an increasingly more liberalised environment has allowed traffic to grow 50% since 2009.

• Further liberalisation is expected in the region. Argentina for example has conditionally agreed 135 new routes for five airlines. At least one Long-Haul Low Cost airline is expected to request routes to the country in the future.

• Airlines in the region are also increasingly looking to alliances in order to facilitate further growth across the Latin American market and to international destinations.

Latin America – top ten countries in international seats offered, in 2016 (monthly, million)

0 1 2 3

Cuba

Puerto Rico

Chile

Dominican Rep.

Peru

Colombia

Argentina

Paraguay

Brazil

Mexico

MEXICO IS THE LARGEST COUNTRY IN LATIN AMERICA FOR INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC



14120

SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

448

2,084

NorthAmerica

3.9%Middle

East

8.5%

Asia-Paci�c

5.2%

CIS

6.0%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


Real Trade

3.1%


20161,130

20362,784

Totaltraf�c4.2%

Real GDP3.0%


newdeliveries

2,666


2016-2026 2026-2036 2016-2036

4.9%4.1% 4.4%4.3% 4.0% 4.2%

Africa

5.3%

MRO VALUE$139bn




1,130

New deliveries

2,666

2,784

Growth1,654

Fleet size*

2036Beginning2017

Replacement1,012


Latin America

World


LatinAmerica

4.7%

Europe

3.3%



Commonwealth of Independent StatesMORE CONNECTIONS, YOUNGER AIRCRAFT

ECONOMY_

• A key component of the CIS, the Russian economy, is stabilising after a severe recession triggered by a number of factors including a drop in oil prices. Generating and attracting investment to diversify its economy and sustain robust growth in the CIS will require further structural and institutional reform to improve the business environment.

• The CIS region’s real GDP is expected to grow at +2.0% per year over the next 20 years.

083Demand by region - Commonwealth of Independent States

TRENDS_

• Despite the difficulties experienced in the region in recent years, origin and destination passenger traffic has doubled to, from and within the CIS over the last 10 years. Domestic and Intra-regional traffic has been particularly strong as well as traffic to and from Asia-Pacific.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002

Historical O&D passenger traf�c to/from/within CIS (million passengers)

Latin America

Africa

North America

Asia-Paci�c

Middle East

Europe

Domestic & Intra CIS

084 Demand by region - Commonwealth of Independent States

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002

Historical O&D passenger traf�c to/from/within CIS (million passengers)

Latin America

Africa

North America

Asia-Paci�c

Middle East

Europe

Domestic & Intra CIS

O&D TRAFFIC TO/FROM/WITHIN CIS HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED IN THE LAST TEN YEARS

Source: SABRE, Airbus GMF 2017


• When demand is challenged, airlines who have more global operations i.e. outside the affected area, can help offset some of the impact. Linked to this and also an enabler, and a benefit for airports, is increased connecting traffic. In Russia, international travel has increased, but so has connecting traffic which represents about 15% of Russian international traffic.

• Growth in GDP per capita in Russia is forecast to grow 61% by the end of our forecast period and is expected to help stimulate growth in air traffic in the region.

Real GDP per capita growth, for selected countries, (base 100 in 2015)

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

20352030202520202015

RussiaUnited StatesGermany

+61%

+37%

+33%

RUSSIAN WEALTH FORECAST TO GROW

Source: IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017

CONNECTING TRAFFIC HELPING DURING DIFFICULT TIMES

Connecting passengers counted once. Source: Sabre, Airbus GMF 2017

Russian airlines international traf�c (million passengers)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015201420132012

Origin or destination in RussiaConnecting two foreign countries in Russia

+90% in 3 years

GDP per capita in Russia will grow

60% over the next twenty years, driving growth for outbound trips

Connecting traffic represents around

15%of international traffic of Russian airlines


• Historically, despite the number of aircraft in service in the region, fleet productivity was low and the average aircraft age was high. In 2005, for example, average fleet age was significantly higher than other regions in the world at about 16 years. Today, with the acquistion of the latest generations of aircraft, either directly or through lease, the average age of the CIS fleet has fallen dramatically to ~12 years. This having been said, the average age for the CIS fleet needs to fall further to reach world average levels.

Fleet in service average age (years)EuropeCIS

North AmericaWorld average

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2015201020052000199519901985198019751970

POSITIVE CIS FLEET DEVELOPMENT, MORE TO COME

Source: Ascend, Airbus GMF 2017 Notes: As at end of year, 100 seats and above


2153

SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

120

1,009

CIS

3.7%

Asia-Paci�c

5.5%

NorthAmerica

4.6%

LatinAmerica

6.0%

MiddleEast

5.0%

Europe

3.9%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


Real Trade

2.9%


2016762

20361,605

Totaltraf�c4.2%

Real GDP2.0%


newdeliveries

1,203


2016-2026 2026-2036 2016-2036

4.9%4.1% 4.4%

4.9%

3.6%4.2%

Africa

4.6%

MRO VALUE$79bn




762

New deliveries

1,203

1,605

Growth843

Fleet size*

2036Beginning2017

Replacement360


CIS

World



AfricaLIBERALISATION, NOW MORE THAN JUST A GOOD IDEA

ECONOMY_

• A rebound in commodity prices and stabilisation in China’s industrial sector are expected to revive economic growth.

• Beyond developments in global commodity markets, expanding domestic markets, growing middle-class populations, and regional integration will support long term economic growth.

• African real GDP is expected to grow at +3.6% per year over the next 20 years.

091Demand by region - Africa

TRENDS_

• Africa is the largest region on Earth in terms of land area with some 30 million km , that is 20% of the Earth’s total land area, but is the poorest in terms of its road network density.

• In terms of the distance between its largest population centres, those over 300,000 people, on average it has the third largest distance between them, only behind Latin America and Asia Pacific.

• Given these characteristics intra-regional traffic in particular appears under developed, especially when compared to other regions.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

North AmericaMiddle EastLatin AmericaEuropeCISAsia-Paci�cAfrica

AFRICAN GEOGRAPHY AND EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE MAKES AVIATION ESSENTIAL FOR THE REGIONS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT

Source: IRF, The World Bank, Airbus GMF 2017

092 Demand by region - Africa

• One significant reason for this has been the slower pace of deregulation Africa has experienced compared to other regions both with countries inside and outside the region.

• This is recognised by both governments and the aviation industry in Africa. It is also recognised that a greater level of deregulation would allow air travel in the region to grow further towards its potential, and allow it to release the economic and social benefits aviation can deliver.

REGIONAL TRAFFIC IN AFRICA IS UNDERDEVELOPED

Source: Sabre, Airbus GMF 2017

Millions of "passengers"

Traf�c to/from each region, Jan-Sept. 2016

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

North AmericaMiddle EastLatin AmericaEuropeCISAsia-Paci�cAfrica

Intra-regional traf�c

Inter-regional traf�c

Domestic traf�c


Number of bilateral agreements registered, 1970-2014Bilateral agreements with countries inside the region

Bilateral agreements with countries outside the region

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

EuropeAfrica


Number of bilateral agreements registered, 1970-2014Bilateral agreements with countries inside the region

Bilateral agreements with countries outside the region

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

EuropeAfrica

AFRICA LIBERALISATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO TAKE HOLD

Source: World Air Services Agreements database, Airbus GMF 2017

• Positively, 15 African States recently declared their commitment to fully open their skies in accordance with the Yamoussoukro Decision, a move which could act as a catalyst to even greater liberalisation in the region.

• For the passenger, another positive development that will be an enabler for aviation’s future growth in Africa, is the launch in 2016, of plans for a new pan-African biometric passport by the African Union (AU). At the beginning of 2018, countries in the region are expected to start issuing the passports to their citizens, building upon the visa simplification efforts of some countries in recent years.


1186

SmallTwin-Aisle


VeryLarge

Single-Aisle

141

817

Africa

5.5%

Asia-Paci�c

7.6%

NorthAmerica

4.4%

LatinAmerica

5.3%

MiddleEast

6.3%

Europe

3.5%

Domesticand

Intra-Regional


Real Trade

4.7%


2016598

20361,529

Totaltraf�c5.2%

Real GDP3.6%


newdeliveries

1,055


2016-2026 2026-2036 2016-2036

4.9%4.1% 4.4%

5.7%4.8%

5.2%

CIS

4.6%

MRO VALUE$83bn




598

New deliveries

1,055

1,529

Growth931

Fleet size*

2036Beginning2017

Replacement124


Africa

World



06Freighter forecast

THE SHORT TERM_

• With relatively slow trade growth world freight traffic has grown more slowly than passenger traffic. Since 2006, freight has grown at 1.9% CAGR with passenger traffic growing at 4.8% CAGR over the same period. Towards the end of 2016, and at the beginning of 2017, freight traffic growth has picked up even achieving 7.1% year on year growth in January. It remains to be seen if the balance between passenger and freight traffic growth can be re-established in the long term, although forecasts suggest a slightly slower growth for freight.

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

JDNOSAJJMAMFJDNOSAJJMAMFJDNOSAJJMAMFJ

World FTKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%)WORLD FREIGHT TRAFFIC

2014 2015 2016

SOME POSITIVE SIGNS IN THE FREIGHT MARKET AT THE END OF 2016


January 2017 freight traffic up

7.1%

100 Freighter forecast

TRENDS AND FORECAST_

• Trade forecasts were revised down again in 2017. However, international trade is still forecast to double in the next twenty years.

• The share of air in international trade is set to go up to more than 30% (in nominal $US).

• Air trade is expected to grow at similar pace as global trade: domestic and international FTKs forecast to grow at 3.8% over the next twenty years, a slightly lower growth rate than last year’s GMF.

• Emerging markets will drive growth of international freight traffic. The “emerging to advanced” flow is expected to represent ~30% of world international FTK in 2036.

• Passenger traffic has grown faster than freight traffic in the last few years, and this is expected to continue in the future: 4.4% CAGR for passenger traffic in the next twenty years, 4.6% for belly capacity, dedicated freighter FTKs forecast to grow at 2.6% per year over the next twenty years.

• The dedicated freight aircraft fleet in service is expected to increase by 50% in the next twenty years, mainly driven by Asia-Pacific.

• Demand for ~1,950 freighter aircraft, of which ~730 new build freighter aircraft will be needed by 2036, 55% mid-size, 45% large.

• ~350 new build freighters in North America (mostly for replacement) and ~200 freighters in Asia-Pacific (mostly for growth).

WORLD TRADE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS

Source: IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017

World international trade forecasts (trillion 2010 $US)

0

10

20

30

40

50

20362034202920242019201420092004

Jan-2016 forecast 2016-2036 CAGRJan-2017 forecast 2016-2036 CAGR

3.4%3.8%

History Forecast


Domestic and international air freight traf�c (billion FTK)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

20362016

Dedicated

2016-2036 CAGR+2.6%

2016-2036 CAGR+4.6%

Belly

61%

52%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20362016

World international air freight (billion FTK)

+4.4%

+2.9%

+4.1%

+5.2%

+4.1%Other 2016-2036 CAGR

Advanced-Emerging 2016-2036 CAGR

Advanced-Advanced 2016-2036 CAGR

Emerging-Advanced 2016-2036 CAGR

Emerging-Emerging 2016-2036 CAGR

31 advanced economies54 emerging economies

BELLY TRAFFIC TO REACH ~61% OF WORLD FTK ASSUMING CONSTANT BELLY LOAD FACTOR AT WORLD LEVEL


INTERNATIONAL AIR FREIGHT TO MORE THAN DOUBLE IN THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20362016

World international air freight (billion FTK)

+4.4%

+2.9%

+4.1%

+5.2%

+4.1%Other 2016-2036 CAGR

Advanced-Emerging 2016-2036 CAGR

Advanced-Advanced 2016-2036 CAGR

Emerging-Advanced 2016-2036 CAGR

Emerging-Emerging 2016-2036 CAGR

31 advanced economies54 emerging economies

2017-2036 demand for freighter aircraft

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Largepayload > 80t

Mid-size30t < payload < 80t

Small10t < payload < 30t

New Build

Conversion

343

389

DEMAND FOR MORE THAN 700 NEW FREIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS



North America

Latin America

Europe

Middle East

Asia-Paci�cAfrica

CIS

2016

2036

794968

81 98

234 276

42 63

73 136

69 97

317

772


FREIGHTER AIRCRAFT FLEET EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 50% IN THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS


North America

Latin America

Europe

Middle East

Asia-Paci�cAfrica

CIS

2016

2036

794968

81 98

234 276

42 63

73 136

69 97

317

772


07Services forecast

107Services forecast

MORE AIRCRAFT MEANS MORE SERVICES_

• The Airbus Global Market Forecast is used in a number of ways including as the basis for other forecasts. One such piece of analysis is our Global Services Forecast (GSF) which details a forward view of aspects of the after market. This includes the Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul market (MRO), the need for new pilots and technicians and the market for aircraft upgrades.

• An important input from the GMF into our services forecast is how the fleet will evolve over time, including the size and fleet mix in terms of age and generation. If we want to analyse the upgrades market we also need to know the trends in second hand aircraft by region.

• The commercial passenger aircraft fleet is growing, and our forecast suggested it will continue to grow in terms of the numbers of aircraft over 100 seats in the coming years. In fact the GMF suggests the fleet will more than double from today’s level of around 19,000 aircraft to 40,000 in 20 years time.

• This fleet growth will also drive the size of the MRO business, which we also expect to double, US$60 billion to more than US$120 billion a year by 2036, or a cumulative US$1.85 trillion over the same period.

• Unsurprisingly, as the fleet grows in Asia-Pacific so too will its share of the overall MRO business with 36% of the value or more than US$660 billion over the next 20 years.

PASSENGER* FLEET IN SERVICE WILL MORE THAN DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS

*Passenger aircraft ≥ 100 seats Source: Airbus GMF 2017

Nr a/c in service

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2036Beginning 2017

18,890

21,230

40,120

12,936

5,954

Growth

Replacement

Stay

108 Services forecast

ASIA-PACIFIC WILL SEE THE LARGEST GROWTH IN MRO DEMAND* OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS

*MRO demand for passenger aircraft ≥ 100 seats Values for 2016 & 2036 Source: Airbus GMF 2017

MRO YEARLY DEMAND* WILL MORE THAN DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS

*MRO demand for passenger aircraft ≥ 100 seats Source: Airbus GMF 2017

YEARLY MARKET VALUE EVOLUTIONUS$ Bn

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20362016

More than x2

Evolution of yearly regional share

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20362016

North America

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

CIS

Asia-Paci�c

Africa


North America

Latin America

Europe

Middle East

Asia-Paci�c

Africa

CIS18%

US$ 321 Bn

8%

US$ 139 Bn

20%

US$ 364 Bn

36%

US$ 664 Bn

4%

US$ 83 Bn

10%

US$ 190 Bn

4%

US$ 79 Bn

WorldUS$

1.85 Tn

MRO TOTAL DEMAND FOR PASSENGER AIRCRAFT ABOVE 100 SEATS OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS

*MRO demand for passenger aircraft ≥ 100 seats Source: Airbus GMF 2017

US$180 Bn

3%

38%

3%22%

5%

15%

14%

UPGRADE MARKET FOR PASSENGER AIRCRAFT ≥ 100 SEATS: US$ 180 BN OVER 20 YEARS

Source: Airbus GMF 2017North America

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

CIS

Asia-Paci�c

Africa

CABIN & SYSTEMS UPGRADE MARKET (2017-2036) - % BY REGION


• A new element to this years Global Services Forecast not published last year, is our view of the upgrade market for systems and cabin for passenger aircraft over 100 seats.

• Over the next 20 years, our forecast shows this market to be valued at UD$180 billion.

• For aircraft manufacturers, there are times when technology or market demands move faster than the economic lives of our products. We constantly look for opportunities to incrementally improve our line built aircraft, but also systematically look to embody these improvements where possible on our existing in service aircraft. This provides benefits to operators by keeping the product at the latest comfort and technology levels, which can enable cost reductions and/or enhance customer experience. For the manufacturer it keeps our aircraft flying with the latest standards and provides a useful aftermarket revenue stream.

North America

Latin America

Europe

Middle East

Asia-Paci�c

Africa

CIS18%

US$ 321 Bn

8%

US$ 139 Bn

20%

US$ 364 Bn

36%

US$ 664 Bn

4%

US$ 83 Bn

10%

US$ 190 Bn

4%

US$ 79 Bn

WorldUS$

1.85 Tn


North America

Latin America

Europe

Middle East

Asia-Paci�cAfrica

CIS72,860

77,900

49,130

53,800

96,970

96,600

21,580

29,900

52,890

58,200

20,270

23,200

219,890

208,200

548K

5%

38%

4%18%

10%

11%

14%

534K

4%

41%

4%18%

9%

10%

14%

NEW PILOTS AND TECHNICIANS DEMAND FORECAST

For passenger aircraft ≥ 100 seats over the next 20 years Source: Airbus GMF 2017

NEW TECHNICIANS - % BY REGION (2017-2036) NEW PILOTS - % BY REGION (2017-2036)

North America

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

CIS

Asia-Paci�c

Africa


North America

Latin America

Europe

Middle East

Asia-Paci�cAfrica

CIS72,860

77,900

49,130

53,800

96,970

96,600

21,580

29,900

52,890

58,200

20,270

23,200

219,890

208,200

• As the world fleet grows so too does the need for more pilots and technicians to meet the needs of airlines and passengers. Airbus forecast that over the next 20 years more than a million such professionals will be needed to be trained to the highest levels.

• We are progressively expanding our training network to support fleet growth worldwide and to support our customers by extending our training capabilities locally. In the last 3 years, we have moved from 5 to 15 training locations. We will continue to extend our network and move closer to our customers by proposing local, pragmatic and tailored training solutions. These solutions cover the entire pilot and technician carrier paths, from cadets to their operational environment.

• In the future, a digital transition will cause a re-evaluation of traditional MRO practices. Today, new generation aircraft can communicate in real time through datalink systems up to 400,000 separate parameters, enabling predictive maintenance to begin to play a key role in aircraft operation and support.


Mexico City

Miami

Campinas

Tunis

Toulouse

Hamburg

New Delhi

Bengalore

Bangkok

Ho Chi minh

Hong kong

Beijing

Jakarta

Singapore

Buenos Aires

IN THREE YEARS, AIRBUS TRAINING CENTRES HAVE GROWN FROM 5 TO A NETWORK OF 15 WORLDWIDE_


Mexico City

Miami

Campinas

Tunis

Toulouse

Hamburg

New Delhi

Bengalore

Bangkok

Ho Chi minh

Hong kong

Beijing

Jakarta

Singapore

Buenos Aires

AIRBUS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE GLOBAL NEED FOR PILOTS AND TECHNICIANS


08Methodology & summary data

118 Methodology & summary data

OUR METHODOLOGY AT A GLANCE_

Historical market analysis

Analyse future aircraft market

Analyse future services market

Forecast passenger & cargo traffic

Forecast carrier operations

Forecast fleet requirements

• What are the key drivers and trends?• How are the fleets operated?

• Demand for new aircraft

• Key products differentiators

• Demand for services (training, MRO)

• Key market segments

• Where will passengers and cargo fly?• How will demand be distributed?

• How will the networks evolve ?• How many new routes?• How much growth on existing routes?• What is the best module size for each sector?

• When will the current fleet be replaced?• How will other life cycle elements evolve?• What are the key fleet requirements?

FORECASTING - ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS

Our main data sources: OAG, Ascend, ACAS, Sabre, Seabury, IHS Economics, Oxford Economics, DoT, Eurocontrol, IATA, ICAO


AFRICA ASIA- PACIFIC CIS EUROPE LATIN

AMERICAMIDDLE

EASTNORTH

AMERICA TOTAL

SINGLE-AISLE 817 9,812 1,009 5,249 2,084 1,082 4,754 24,807

SMALL TWIN-AISLE

141 2,569 120 1,039 448 512 654 5,483

INTERMEDIATE TWIN-AISLE

86 1,328 53 389 120 530 186 2,692

VERY LARGE AIRCRAFT

11 567 21 143 14 402 26 1,184

TOTAL 1,055 14,276 1,203 6,820 2,666 2,526 5,620 34,166


AMERICAMIDDLE

EASTNORTH

AMERICA TOTAL

SMALL - - - - - - - -

MID-SIZE 7 83 13 24 11 22 230 390

LARGE 3 125 8 44 - 40 123 343

TOTAL 10 208 21 68 11 62 353 733

NEW DELIVERIES 2017-2036_

NEW PASSENGER AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION

NEW FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION



AMERICAMIDDLE

EASTNORTH

AMERICA TOTAL

SINGLE-AISLE 817 9,812 1,009 5,249 2,084 1,082 4,754 24,807

TWIN-AISLE 235 4,024 189 1,468 579 1,078 1,113 8,686

VERY LARGE AIRCRAFT

13 648 26 171 14 428 106 1,406

TOTAL 1,065 14,484 1,224 6,888 2,677 2,588 5,973 34,899

Source: Airbus 100+ seats (passenger aircraft) and 10t+ (freighters), Airbus GMF 2017


AMERICAMIDDLE

EASTNORTH

AMERICA TOTAL

CONVERSIONS 46 463 55 137 59 30 434 1,224

CONVERTED FREIGHT AIRCRAFT BY REGION

NEW PASSENGER AND FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION


Disclaimer

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Words such as anticipates, believes, estimates, expects, intends, plans, projects, may, forecast and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements include statements made about strategy, ramp-up and delivery schedules, introduction of new products and services and market expectations, as well as statements regarding future performance and outlook. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances and there are many factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.

These factors include but are not limited to:

• Changes in general economic, political or market conditions, including the cyclical nature of some of Airbus’ businesses;

• Significant disruptions in air travel (including as a result of terrorist attacks);

• Currency exchange rate fluctuations, in particular between the Euro and the U.S. dollar;

• The successful execution of internal performance plans, including cost reduction and productivity efforts;

• Product performance risks, as well as programme development and management risks;

• Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations, including financing issues;

• Competition and consolidation in the aerospace and defence industry;

• Significant collective bargaining labour disputes;

• The outcome of political and legal processes, including the availability of government financing for certain programmes and the size of defence and space procurement budgets;

• Research and development costs in connection with new products;

• Legal, financial and governmental risks related to international transactions;

• Legal and investigatory proceedings and other economic, political and technological risks and uncertainties.

Any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation/publication speaks as of the date of this presentation/publication release. Airbus undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements in light of new information, future events or otherwise.

SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT_


AIRBUS S.A.S. 31707 Blagnac Cedex, France © AIRBUS S.A.S. 2017 - All rights reserved, Airbus, its logo and the product names are registered trademarks.

Concept design by Airbus Multi Media Support 20170247. Photos by Airbus, Tetra Images, 06photo, R. Wilson, alice-photo, P. Masclet, l i g h t p o e t, V. Lombardo, P. Kosmider, carnival, pixelliebe, N. Starichenko, A. V. Marcus, saiko3p, A. Voskresensky, Abdoabdalla, P. Chenu, P. Alcantara. Computer renderings by Fixion.

Reference D14029465, Issue 4. April, 2017. Printed in France by Art & Caractère.

Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be usedfor any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer.They are based on the mentioned assumptionsand are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.

This brochure is printed on Stucco Old mill - Premium white and Offset standard.This paper is produced in factories that are accredited EMAS and certified ISO 9001-14001, PEFC and FSC CoC. It is produced using pulp that has been whitened without either chlorine or acid. The paper is entirely recyclable and is produced from trees grown in sustainable forest resources.

The printing inks use organic pigments or minerals. There is no use of basic dyes or dangerous metals from the cadmium, lead, mercury or hexavalent chromium group.

The printer, Art & Caractère (France 81500),is engaged in a waste management and recycling programme for all resulting by-products.

Get the GMF app

#AGMF

Find us on Facebook

[email protected]

ISBN: 978-2-9554382-2-6

Global Market Forecast 2017-2036 - · PDF filenew aircraft demand passenger and freighters...

Documents

Transcript of Global Market Forecast 2017-2036 - · PDF filenew aircraft demand passenger and freighters...