Global Innovators Fund - Guinness Atkinson Funds...Global Innovators Fund Review of Q4 2016 2...

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For registered investment professional use only Global Innovators Fund Review of Q4 2016

Transcript of Global Innovators Fund - Guinness Atkinson Funds...Global Innovators Fund Review of Q4 2016 2...

  • For registered investment professional use only

    Global Innovators Fund Review of Q4 2016

  • 2

    Matthew Page, CFA

    • Portfolio manager of strategy since 2010, previously analyst on strategy from 2005 • Joined Guinness Atkinson Asset Management in September 2005 • CFA Charterholder • Previous to Guinness Atkinson, worked for Goldman Sachs as an analyst in Fixed

    Income Currencies and Commodities (FICC) • Graduated from University of Oxford, with a Masters degree in Physics in 2004

    Dr Ian Mortimer, CFA

    • Portfolio manager of strategy since 2010 • Joined Guinness Atkinson Asset Management in December 2006 • CFA Charterholder • Graduated from University of Oxford, with a D.Phil. in Physics in 2006 • Graduated from University College London, University of London, with a First Class

    Honors Masters degree in Physics in 2003

    Fund manager biographies

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management

  • 3 Global Innovators strategy

    Global multi-cap growth with a value discipline The Fund seeks:

    • Quality growth companies at attractive valuations • Highly disciplined, systematic approach • Focussed portfolio of best ideas • Seeking high active share • Mid-large cap bias • Buy and hold – low turnover

    Objective: Long-term capital appreciation

    Benchmark MSCI World Number of positions 30 Position size 3-4% Market cap range > $0.5bn Max industry weight 30% Av. holding period 3-5 years Cash range 1-3%

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management (data as of 12.31.2016)

    * Run in its current form since 2003 ** See page 8 for details on the expense waiver

    • AUM in strategy: $237M

    • Investor class: IWIRX Inception 12.15.98** Expense ratio* 1.24% (net); 1.27% (gross) • Institutional class: GINNX Inception 12.31.15 Expense ratio* 0.99% (net); 1.07% (gross)

  • 4

    Investors often aim to identify “quality” companies for investment, in order to seek returns on investment. But the challenge is how to objectively identify quality companies?

    We believe return on capital is the best objective identifier of ‘quality’ businesses We seek companies that exhibit:

    1. Persistently above average return on capital over an entire cycle • Established competitive advantage • High probability of continued above average return on capital (‘good companies stay

    good’)

    2. Improving return on capital profile • Potential to achieve above average return on capital in the future • Significant opportunities to reinvest cash flow in high return projects

    But must also consider whether the company is a good investment…

    What do we mean by a “quality” company?

  • 5

    We believe quality companies that can demonstrate some element of innovation through their business model, or their products, or through technological advances have the best chance of defending their superior return on capital

    We believe buying companies at attractive valuations significantly increases their investment

    return potential over the long term and allows us to better mitigate unforeseen risks

    We believe equal weighting and low turnover add useful incremental returns

    We believe that our disciplined, intelligently designed, repeatable process maximises our chance of success.

    Investment characteristics we seek to identify

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management

  • 6 Investment process: systematic, repeatable, robust

    Improving return on capital profile businesses

    Persistently high return on capital businesses

    Prioritization Business strength, Valuation, Growth

    Portfolio addition At least 50% upside on 3 year view, better

    risk/return than a current holding

    Fundamental analysis Proprietary modelling, Assessment of return potential, Risk analysis,

    Competitive advantage, Market sentiment

    Watchlist Like the business, don’t like the

    valuation

    Reject Weak business, poor allocator of

    capital, industry in decline

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management

  • 7

    Prospect for return from cash-flow growth • Higher than average return on capital or prospect of achieving it • Confidence that earnings can grow – revenue growth, margin

    expansion • Consider full spectrum of growth companies to identify best

    opportunities Prospect for return from re-rating

    • Company out of favour or irrational hype has abated • Multiple (P/E, EV/EBITDA) discount to peers, or market, or

    company history • Avoid story stocks, don’t pay up for expected future growth

    Recognise markets can be irrational over short term • Do not know when market will re-value company • Buy and hold • Use any short term movements to trim/top-up position

    What we are looking for when we buy a new company for the fund

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management P/E = Price/Earnings; EV = Earnings Value; EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Debt and Amortization

    Business value creation

    Return from re-rating

    >50% upside to current

    valuation over 3 years

    +

    =

  • 8 Performance vs. benchmark

    Performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance of the Funds may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. Total returns reflect a fee waiver in effect and in the absence of this waiver, the total returns would be lower. Performance data through the most recent month-end may be obtained by visiting www.gafunds.com. The Adviser has contractually agreed to reimburse expenses (excluding Acquired Fund Fees and Expenses, interest, taxes, dividends on short position and extraordinary expenses) in order to limit the Total Annual Operating Expenses for Institutional Shares and for the Investor Class to 0.99% and 1.24% respectively through June 30, 2018 Performance data shown for Global Innovators, Institutional Class (GINNX), prior to its launch date on 12.31.2015, uses performance data from the Global Innovators, Investor Class (IWIRX).

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Bloomberg

    As at 12.31.2016 (in USD) Q4 2016 1 year 3 years annualized 5 years

    annualized 10 years

    annualized

    Since inception

    annualized

    Global Innovators, Investor Class1 2.17% 9.51% 6.12% 15.80% 8.14% 6.93%

    Global Innovators, Institutional Class2 2.24% 9.81% 6.22% 15.86% 8.17% 6.95%

    MSCI World Index 1.99% 8.18% 4.43% 11.08% 4.46% 5.13%

    1Investor class Ticker: IWIRX Inception 12.15.1998 Expense ratio* 1.24% (net); 1.27% (gross) 2Institutional class Ticker: GINNX Inception 12.31.2015 Expense ratio* 0.99% (net); 1.07% (gross)

  • 9 Fund performance

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Bloomberg (data as of 12.31.2016)

    Performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    10.9

    %

    11.8

    %

    18.8

    %

    21.2

    %

    -45.

    4%

    45.2

    %

    17.0

    %

    -6.5

    %

    19.9

    %

    45.3

    %

    12.6

    %

    -3.0

    %

    9.5%15

    .3%

    10.1

    % 20.7

    %

    9.7%

    -40.

    3%

    30.9

    %

    12.4

    %

    -5.0

    %

    16.6

    % 27.4

    %

    5.6%

    -0.3

    %

    8.2%

    -50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

    0%10%20%30%40%50%

    Guinness Atkinson Global Innovators MSCI World Index

    -50%

    0%

    50%

    100%

    150%

    200%

    250%Total return (USD)

  • 10 Attribution in quarter (all in USD)

    Top 5 performing stocks Bottom 5 performing stocks

    Total return Total returnNVIDIA 56.0% Shire -10.8%

    Boeing 19.1% AAC Technologies Holdings -9.6%

    Cognizant Technology 17.4% New Oriental Education -9.2%

    VeriFone 12.6% Gilead -8.9%

    WisdomTree 9.3% SAP -4.4%

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Bloomberg (data as of 12.31.2016) Fund holdings are subject to change.

    Sheet1

    Top 5 performing stocksBottom 5 performing stocks

    Total returnTotal return

    NVIDIA56.0%Shire-10.8%

    Boeing19.1%AAC Technologies Holdings-9.6%

    Cognizant Technology 17.4%New Oriental Education-9.2%

    VeriFone12.6%Gilead-8.9%

    WisdomTree9.3%SAP-4.4%

  • 11 Changes in the quarter

    Sells Buys Lenovo New Oriental Education State Street Fanuc Li & Fung Nike Taiwan Semiconductor AAC Technologies

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management (as of 12.31.2016)

  • 12 Changes in the quarter - effect on sector allocation

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management (as of 12.31.2016)

    Portfolio sector changes over Q4 2016 (12.31.2016 vs 9.30.2016)

    -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

    Financials

    IT

    Energy

    Utilities

    Telecos

    Materials

    Con. staples

    Real Estate

    Health Care

    Industrials

    Con. discretionary

  • 13 Changes in the quarter - effect on geographic allocation

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management (as of 12.31.2016)

    Portfolio geographic changes over Q4 2016 (12.31.2016 vs 9.30.2016)

    -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

    North America

    Europe

    Asia

  • 14 Portfolio allocation by estimated future long term growth rate

    Portfolio today

    Range last

    10years

    10 – 20% growth

    20% + growth

    30% 20 - 50%

    63% 30 - 60%

    7% 0 - 20%

    0 – 10% growth

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management estimates (as of 12.31.2016) Future allocations presented are the belief of Guinness Atkinson which are used to help allocate the portfolio.

    Allocation

    Sheet1

    Portfolio todayRange last 10years

    0 – 10% growth30%20 - 50%

    10 – 20% growth63%30 - 60%

    20% + growth7%0 - 20%

  • 15 Portfolio allocation by estimated future long term growth rate

    Portfolio today

    Range last

    10years

    10 – 20% growth

    20% + growth

    30% 20 - 50%

    63% 30 - 60%

    7% 0 - 20%

    0 – 10% growth

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management estimates (as of 12.31.2016) Future allocations presented are the belief of Guinness Atkinson which are used to help allocate the portfolio.

    Allocation

    Sheet1

    Portfolio todayRange last 10years

    0 – 10% growth30%20 - 50%

    10 – 20% growth63%30 - 60%

    20% + growth7%0 - 20%

  • 16 Portfolio profile

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Bloomberg (data as of 12.31.2016) Fund holdings are subject to change

    PE PE

    16Y 17Y

    Roper Technologies Inc Capital Goods 19.2 US 3.3% 28.0 25.2Eaton Corp PLC Capital Goods 30.8 US 3.3% 16.0 15.3Boeing Co/The Capital Goods 98.1 US 3.6% 21.9 16.8FANUC Corp Capital Goods 35.7 JP 3.1% 23.8 34.1Schneider Electric SE Capital Goods 41.7 FR 3.4% 18.2 16.9Siemens AG Capital Goods 104.8 DE 3.5% 15.6 15.8NIKE Inc Consumer Durables & Apparel 87.5 US 3.4% 23.6 21.7H&R Block Inc Consumer Services 4.9 US 3.4% 13.8 13.9New Oriental Education & Technology Group IncConsumer Services 7.6 CN 2.8% 27.2 23.5Intercontinental Exchange Inc Diversified Financials 33.8 US 3.5% 20.5 18.3WisdomTree Investments Inc Diversified Financials 1.6 US 3.1% 39.5 41.0Schlumberger Ltd Energy 118.8 US 3.3% 72.7 43.8Danaher Corp Health Care Equipment & Servic 56.2 US 3.3% 21.6 19.8Alphabet Inc Internet Software & Services 561.3 US 3.3% 22.9 19.2Comcast Corp Media 171.4 US 3.3% 19.8 18.3Shire PLC Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology 51.4 US 3.0% 13.4 11.2Gilead Sciences Inc Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology 96.7 US 3.3% 6.3 6.6Applied Materials Inc Semiconductors & Semiconductor 35.6 US 3.5% 18.5 13.7Infineon Technologies AG Semiconductors & Semiconductor 19.7 DE 3.3% 21.7 21.1QUALCOMM Inc Semiconductors & Semiconductor 97.1 US 3.3% 15.1 13.8Intel Corp Semiconductors & Semiconductor 175.1 US 3.3% 13.6 13.0NVIDIA Corp Semiconductors & Semiconductor 57.0 US 3.4% 67.7 38.4PayPal Holdings Inc Software & Services 49.6 US 3.4% 26.3 22.7Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp Software & Services 34.6 US 3.4% 16.5 15.3SAP SE Software & Services 108.6 DE 3.6% 22.1 19.7Check Point Software Technologies Ltd Software & Services 15.6 IL 3.4% 18.7 17.2VeriFone Systems Inc Technology Hardware & Equipmen 2.0 US 3.5% 10.7 12.9AAC Technologies Holdings Inc Technology Hardware & Equipmen 11.9 CN 3.5% 20.0 16.1Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Technology Hardware & Equipmen 222.0 KR 3.4% 12.6 9.3Cisco Systems Inc Technology Hardware & Equipmen 151.7 US 3.3% 13.0 12.7

    Average mkt. cap 91.1 Total portfolio 17.9 16.5Median mkt. cap 50.5 Y-o-Y growth 9%

    MSCI World Index 19.1 16.5Fund premium / (discount) -6.2% -0.2%

    Name Country of domicile % NAVMkt. capIndustry

  • 17 Portfolio profile

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Bloomberg (data as of 12.31.2016) Fund holdings are subject to change

    PE PE

    16Y 17Y

    Roper Technologies Inc Capital Goods 19.2 US 3.3% 28.0 25.2Eaton Corp PLC Capital Goods 30.8 US 3.3% 16.0 15.3Boeing Co/The Capital Goods 98.1 US 3.6% 21.9 16.8FANUC Corp Capital Goods 35.7 JP 3.1% 23.8 34.1Schneider Electric SE Capital Goods 41.7 FR 3.4% 18.2 16.9Siemens AG Capital Goods 104.8 DE 3.5% 15.6 15.8NIKE Inc Consumer Durables & Apparel 87.5 US 3.4% 23.6 21.7H&R Block Inc Consumer Services 4.9 US 3.4% 13.8 13.9New Oriental Education & Technology Group IncConsumer Services 7.6 CN 2.8% 27.2 23.5Intercontinental Exchange Inc Diversified Financials 33.8 US 3.5% 20.5 18.3WisdomTree Investments Inc Diversified Financials 1.6 US 3.1% 39.5 41.0Schlumberger Ltd Energy 118.8 US 3.3% 72.7 43.8Danaher Corp Health Care Equipment & Servic 56.2 US 3.3% 21.6 19.8Alphabet Inc Internet Software & Services 561.3 US 3.3% 22.9 19.2Comcast Corp Media 171.4 US 3.3% 19.8 18.3Shire PLC Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology 51.4 US 3.0% 13.4 11.2Gilead Sciences Inc Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology 96.7 US 3.3% 6.3 6.6Applied Materials Inc Semiconductors & Semiconductor 35.6 US 3.5% 18.5 13.7Infineon Technologies AG Semiconductors & Semiconductor 19.7 DE 3.3% 21.7 21.1QUALCOMM Inc Semiconductors & Semiconductor 97.1 US 3.3% 15.1 13.8Intel Corp Semiconductors & Semiconductor 175.1 US 3.3% 13.6 13.0NVIDIA Corp Semiconductors & Semiconductor 57.0 US 3.4% 67.7 38.4PayPal Holdings Inc Software & Services 49.6 US 3.4% 26.3 22.7Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp Software & Services 34.6 US 3.4% 16.5 15.3SAP SE Software & Services 108.6 DE 3.6% 22.1 19.7Check Point Software Technologies Ltd Software & Services 15.6 IL 3.4% 18.7 17.2VeriFone Systems Inc Technology Hardware & Equipmen 2.0 US 3.5% 10.7 12.9AAC Technologies Holdings Inc Technology Hardware & Equipmen 11.9 CN 3.5% 20.0 16.1Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Technology Hardware & Equipmen 222.0 KR 3.4% 12.6 9.3Cisco Systems Inc Technology Hardware & Equipmen 151.7 US 3.3% 13.0 12.7

    Average mkt. cap 91.1 Total portfolio 17.9 16.5Median mkt. cap 50.5 Y-o-Y growth 9%

    MSCI World Index 19.1 16.5Fund premium / (discount) -6.2% -0.2%

    Name Country of domicile % NAVMkt. capIndustry

  • 18 Portfolio characteristics

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Bloomberg (data as of 12.31.2016)

    Industry breakdown % NAV Market cap. ($bn) breakdown % NAV Regional breakdown % NAV

    Capital Goods 19.9% 50 49.5% Europe 13.6%Software & Services 16.7% Cash 1.2% MENA 3.3%Diversified Financials 6.6% 100.0% Cash 1.2%Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology 6.2% 100.0%Consumer Services 6.1%Consumer Durables & Apparel 3.3%Media 3.2%Energy 3.2%Health Care Equipment & Services 3.2%Cash 1.2%

    100.0%

  • 19 Portfolio allocation since launch

    Sector allocation

    Geographic allocation

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management (data as of 12.31.2016) EM = Emerging Markets

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%Cash

    Con. discretionary

    Con. staples

    Energy

    Financials

    Health Care

    Industrials

    IT

    Materials

    Telecos

    Utilities

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Cash

    Asia

    Europe

    North America

  • 20 Portfolio today vs MSCI World benchmark

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Bloomberg (data as of 12.31.2016)

    0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%

    Information Technology

    Industrials

    Consumer Discretionary

    Health Care

    Utilities

    Real estate

    Telecommunication Services

    Energy

    Materials

    Consumer Staples

    Financials

    Cash

    Fund allocation vs MSCI World Index

    Fund

    Index

    -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

    Information Technology

    Industrials

    Consumer Discretionary

    Health Care

    Utilities

    Real estate

    Telecommunication Services

    Energy

    Materials

    Consumer Staples

    Financials

    Cash

    Over / under weights

  • 21 What happened in 2016?

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Bloomberg (performance from 12.31.2015 to 12.31.2016) Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

    MSCI World Health Care Index

    MSCI World Consumer Staples Index

    MSCI World Consumer Discretionary Index

    MSCI World Real Estate Index

    MSCI World Telecom Service Sector Index

    MSCI World Utilities Sector Index

    MSCI World Information Technology Index

    MSCI World Financials Index

    MSCI World Industrials Index

    MSCI World Materials Sector Index

    MSCI World Energy Sector Index

    % Return

  • 22 What happened in 2016?

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Bloomberg (performance from 12.31.2015 to 12.31.2016) Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    MSCI WorldIndex

    MSCI US Index MSCI EmergingMarkets Index

    MSCI AC AsiaEx. Japan Index

    MSCI JapanIndex

    MSCI EuropeIndex

    % R

    etur

    n

  • 23 What happened in 2016?

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Bloomberg (data as of 12.31.2016) Past performance is no guarantee of future results

    70

    75

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

    Inde

    xUS Dollar index (DXY)

  • 24 What happened in 2016?

    Source: Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Bloomberg (data as of 12.31.2016) Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    -10.0%

    -8.0%

    -6.0%

    -4.0%

    -2.0%

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16

    MSCI World Value - MSCI World Growth

    Growth outperforming value

    Value outperforming growth

  • 25

    *The Advisor has contractually agreed to reimburse expenses (excluding Acquired Fund Fees and Expenses, interest, taxes, dividends on short position and extraordinary expenses) in order to limit the Total Annual Operating Expenses for Institutional Shares and for Investor Class to 0.99% and 1.24% respectively through June 30, 2018. To the extent that the Advisor absorbs expenses to satisfy this cap, it may recoup a portion or all of such amounts absorbed at any time within three fiscal years after the fiscal year in which such amounts were absorbed, subject to the expense cap in place at the time recoupment is sought, which cannot exceed the expense cap at the time of waiver. The expense limitation agreement may be terminated by the Board of the Fund at any time without penalty upon 60 days’ notice.

    This information is authorized for use when preceded or accompanied by a prospectus for the Guinness Atkinson Funds. The prospectus contains more complete information including investment objectives, risks, fees and expenses related to an ongoing investment in the Fund. Please read it carefully before investing.

    Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market

    Mutual fund investing involves risk and loss of principal is possible. Investments in foreign securities involve greater volatility, political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. The Fund also invests in smaller companies, which will involve additional risks such as limited liquidity and greater volatility. The Fund is non-diversified meaning its assets may be concentrated in fewer individual holdings than diversified funds. Therefore, the Fund is more exposed to individual stock volatility than diversified funds.

    Opinions expressed are subject to change and should not be considered investment advice.

    Forward earnings are a company's forecasted, or estimated, earnings made by analysts or by the company itself.

    Cash flow is the total amount of money being transferred into and out of a business.

    Fund holdings and sector allocations are subject to change and are not recommendations to buy or sell any security.

    Disclosure

  • 26 Disclosure

    EV/EBITDA, also known as Enterprise or EBITDA Multiple, is a ratio used to determine the value of a company. The enterprise multiple looks at a firm as a potential acquirer would, because it takes debt into account.

    Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) is A valuation ratio of a company's current share price compared to its per-share earnings.

    Return on Capital is a return from an investment that is not considered income.

    Market capitalization (cap) is calculated by multiplying a company's shares outstanding by the current market price of one share. The investment community uses this figure to determine a company's size, as opposed to sales or total asset figures.

    MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets.

    The MSCI World Growth Index captures large and mid cap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics across Developed Markets.

    The MSCI World Value Index captures large and mid cap securities exhibiting overall value style characteristics across Developed Markets.

    One cannot invest directly in an index. Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC

    Global Innovators FundFund manager biographiesGlobal Innovators strategyWhat do we mean by a “quality” company?Investment characteristics we seek to identifyInvestment process: systematic, repeatable, robust What we are looking for when we buy a new company for the fundPerformance vs. benchmarkFund performanceAttribution in quarter (all in USD)Changes in the quarter Changes in the quarter - effect on sector allocationChanges in the quarter - effect on geographic allocationPortfolio allocation by estimated future long term growth ratePortfolio allocation by estimated future long term growth ratePortfolio profilePortfolio profilePortfolio characteristicsPortfolio allocation since launchPortfolio today vs MSCI World benchmarkWhat happened in 2016?What happened in 2016?What happened in 2016?What happened in 2016?DisclosureDisclosure