Global crude oil peak started 2005
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Transcript of Global crude oil peak started 2005
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HUBBERT CURVE
Classical definition of peak oil: maximum oil production in time series
Time
Prod
uctio
n
P = 2Pm/(l+COSH(-b(t-tm)))
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PEAKING AS PROCESS
Reality: peak oil is a complex process,
not an event limited to the year of global maximum production
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PEAKING IN DIFFERENT AREAS In fields: (North Sea offshore) Shale oil (Bakken) Country level (UK) Region (Middle East, South East
Asia) World Peak
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NORTH SEA OFFSHORE
Field: Forties
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NORTH SEA OFFSHORE
Field: Buzzard
https://www.og.decc.gov.uk/pprs/full_production.htm
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SHALE OIL (TIGHT OIL)
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SHALE OIL (TIGHT OIL)
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PEAK OIL AT COUNTRY LEVEL
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PEAK OIL IN REGION
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MIDDLE EAST
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SAUDI ARABIA
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INCREMENTAL CRUDE OIL PEAK - WORLD
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WEO 2012 FROM IEA
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LAHERRERE (2004/2013)
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BITRE 117 AND EIA ACTUAL
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BITRE 117 - METHODOLOGY 1
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BITRE 117 - METHODOLOGY 2
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PEAKS WITH GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS
Iran Egypt Syria Sudan Libya Yemen Indonesia
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IRAN
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BITRE 117 VS LAHERRERE
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OPEC PRODUCTION & DEPLETION
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IRAQ - OIL PRODUCTION & FORECASTS
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EGYPT – GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS
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EGYPT – PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION
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EGYPT – POPULATION SCENARIOS
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SYRIA
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SUDAN
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LIBYA – PRODUCTION PROFILES
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LIBYA – OIL PRODUCTION & FORECAST
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YEMEN – C&C
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YEMEN – SUPPLY & CONSUMPTION
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INDONESIA – PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION
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INDONESIA – PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION
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PEAK EXPORTS
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GLOBAL REMAINING RESERVES
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AUSTRALIAN OIL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION
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AUSTRALIAN CRUDE OIL IMPORTS
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AUSTRALIAN SUPPLIES
• Direct Imports• Refined from imported crude• Refined from indigenous crude
We have 3 types of petrol:
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AUSTRALIAN IMPORTS
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AUSTRALIAN LPG IMPORTS
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AUSTRALIAN DEPENDENCY ON MIDDLE EAST
37%
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US DEMAND PEAK
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OIL AND RECESSIONS
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US REMAINS CRUDE OIL IMPORTER
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US SHALE OIL WILL PEAK
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SHALE OIL DECLINE 6% PER MONTH
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EAGLE FORD PRODUCTION PROFILE
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US NATURAL GAS – ENERGY REVOLUTION?
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OIL AND DEBT
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OIL AND CO2
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FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUEL
DRIVEN TRAFFIC
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GOLDEN AGE OF GAS?
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HANSEN’S ASSESSMENT OF CO2 EMISSIONS
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CO2, CH4 & TEMPWhile we’re at it,
let’s revisit evolution and
gravity
Alan Moir
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GAS AS TRANSPORT FUEL
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SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION Peak oil projections are
difficult Financial and economic
problems have already started in 2005, long before the global peak – whenever that is
Peak oil and global warming put us between a rock and a hard place
Oil and gas must be set aside for agriculture and transport of food There are complex feed-back loops between oil production, oil
prices, oil demand, the economy and debt Disintegration of Middle East complicates everything Governments neither prepare for peak oil nor global warming
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WHO WILL DO PEAK OIL RESEARCH? We need a new, young
generation of leaders who are oil, energy & climate literate
Are you interested in conducting research on the limitations of oil resources and C02?
Career path starting as advisor in energy industry, government or international organisations