Global Conflict & TerrorismInternational Security Influencers in 2012

Cross County Patriots

17 April 2012

4/18/2012 1

Phil Hamilton

Intl Security & Defense

Business Operations, M&A

4/18/2012

Agenda

• Understanding Key Terms & Impact on National Strategy

� Elements of Power

� Center of Gravity

• Regional Terrorism & Conflict – Influencing Issues for the USA

� Specific focus on Middle East & Africa

� Influence of the Muslim Brotherhood Across MENA

� Mexico – A Near Failed State on Our Southern Border

• Q & A

Prepared to discuss experiences:

• MENA

• West Africa

• DOS, DHS & DOD

• Impact on economy and the election

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4/18/2012

The Elements of Power

The ability to influence or shape the behavior of others to get a desired

outcome.

• Economic

• Diplomatic

• Military

• Information

Our national security strategy uses these elements of power to shape the

desired outcomes of our foreign policy.

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Used by both nation states

and non-state actors

4/18/2012

The Elements of Power

• Economic: The use of wealth, spending and taxation, policy on money

supply and interest rates, trade policy, tariffs and agreements, and of

sanctions. A strong measure of a nation’s stability.

• Diplomatic: Influencing the international situations through agreements,

negotiations, and engagement with foreign nations, the UN, and Non-

Governmental/International Organizations.

• Informational: The ability to acquire and assess information, then project

the desired messages to the right people, at the right time. The technological

evolution of information projection.

• Military: The armed forces of a nation, it’s ability to project superior power in

on land, over the seas, and in the air, regionally or globally. The military

technological and skills advantages of particular nation, and their ability to

support or sustain military operations.

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Center of Gravity

In implementing an effective national security strategy, in order to conduct a

proper analysis and development of options, messages, policies and

execute strategic decisions, one must also understand the concept of…

Center of Gravity: The critical capabilities to cause action, the critical

requirements or conditions that support the capability’s function, and the

critical vulnerabilities to attack that would cause the capabilities to cease

functioning.

Today the elements of power are being used effectively by

non-nation state actors – some supported by nation’s and others not.

Today, does the US have a clear national strategy?

Has yesterday’s strategy been effective?

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4/18/2012

International Concerns Put in Terms of Power

• Islamic evolution, the struggle within Islam – a “silent apartheid”

o Arab Spring evolving in 2012

o Radical Islam vs. moderates around the world

o Nation states vs. movements and global organizations

• Terrorism: nation supported, the evolvement of Al Qaeda, & home grown

• Iraq & Afghanistan – the politics of our exit strategy

• Threats to US business continuity, national wealth and economic power

o Europe & China – EU monetary policy & Germany, US & global debt to China

o Petroleum resources, global market and transport

� Chokepoints – Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Suez Canal, & refining

� Africa – corruption, environmental disaster, terrorism

• Power of the internet – informational power at speed of light

There is an Intertwining of Events for US Strategies and Policy 6

4/18/2012

The Access to Petroleum as a US National Interest

…and where are the threats & conflicts?

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Ranking – Proven Oil Reserves1 – Venezuela2 – Saudi Arabia (GCC)3 – Canada4 – Iran5 – Iraq (increasing)6 – Mexico (new US-Mexico pact)7 – Kuwait (GCC)8 – UAE (GCC)9 – Russia10 – Libya11 – Nigeria12 – Kazakhstan13 – Qatar (GCC)14 – China (needs large imports)15 - USA16 – Brazil17 – Azerbaijan18 – Angola19 – Algeria20 – India (needs large imports)21 – South Sudan22 – Norway23 – Ecuador24 – Oman (GCC)25 – Ghana (increasing)

Types of CrudeVery Important

Light, Heavy,Sweet & Sour

Sub-Saharan Africa

Red

Sea

Mediterranean

Ocean

Europe

India

Gulf of Aden

Turkey

Russia

China

Horn

of Africa

Strait of

Hormuz

Indian Ocean

Arabian

Sea

Influencing Threats – MENA+The View Approaching 2011

19 countries including Afghanistan and Pakistan

AQIM

AQI

AQ &

Taliban

AQAP

AQIM

& MB

Al Qaeda

Al Qaeda in Maghreb

Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula

AL Qaeda in Iraq

Hamas, Hezbollah & the

Muslim Brotherhood

Iran’s expansion of power base

Israel - Lebanon

Israel - Palestinian

Israel – Egypt

Lebanon - Syria

Libya after Arab Spring

US withdrawal strategy

Growing Piracy

Shia-Sunni

Taliban

Syria’s Spring

Piracy

S hia on Sunni

Israel

o Very high unemployment , large youth segments

o Need for huge economic investments

o Many with huge oil, gas, and petrochemical industries

o Regions of distinct “haves and have nots” – silent apartheid

o Center of gravity in fight against terrorism

o Center of gravity for world and US economy

o Center of gravity for US foreign policy & military action

o Above issues expanding into West Africa (22% of US oil imports)

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22% of USoil imports

25% of world’s oil flows

from GCC, Iraq & IranNorth

SouthSudan

4/18/2012

Middle East• Iranian nuclear development

• Nuclear Israel

• GCC + Iran & Iraq hold 56% & 40%

of world’s proven oil & gas reserveso Largest customers Europe & Chinao Iraq increasing, possible become #1

• Threat to Strait of Hormuz

• Syrian civil conflicts

• Middle East Peace Processo Palestinianso Israelo Syria (Alawite)o Lebanono Jordano Egypt &

Muslim Brotherhood (Sunni)o US, UN, EU, Russia Quartet

• AQAP

• AQI

• Arab Spring & Derivatives

• Unified GCC

• Other nuclear developments (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt)

If U.S. Foreign Policy were played on the Starship Enterprise

Mr. Spock would have trouble playing this chess game

o Hamas & Fatah(both Sunni)

o Hezbollah (Shia)o Arab Leagueo Iran influenceo Sunni vs. Shia

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AQAP

AQI

4/18/2012

Muslim Brotherhood – Much More Than Just Egypt

"God is our objective; the Quran is our constitution, the Prophet

is our leader; Jihad is our way; and death for the sake of God

is the highest of our aspirations.”

• One of the largest and most influential Islamic groups

o Evolved from militant group to providing support for democratic principles

o Egypt, Sudan, and Hamas examples of militant actions – now condemned as moderate

o Global information center in London

• Sunni controlled, follows and promotes Sharia Law, Egypt-based, found in

and financially supported by all major Islamic countries

• Model for political activism and community charitable work

• Wants to supplant Iran as major influence in Middle East

o Asserting strong influence over Hamas

o Withdrew Egypt’s support of Syrian government

o Playing an active political role in Arab Spring across MENA

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4/18/2012

Iran as a Regional Power

• Iranian nuclear development – process & leverage is North Korean model o Ayatollah’s fatwa – “building a nuclear bomb is not Islamic”

• Crisis in Iran – sanctions, inflation, discontent, Iranian Revolutionary Guard

• Ayatollah & the President – Ayatollah is the Commander in Chief

• Threat to Strait of Hormuz – We’ve been there before - ‘86-87o Exocet missileso Iranian patrol boatso Reflagging tankers &

providing escorts

• Swarming boats & missiles

• Physical size of sea lanes

• Sanctions against Irano 2006 - Enrichment &

nuclear materials proveno 2007 - Arms embargo and

froze assetso 2008 - Frozen assets &

monitoring of bankingo 2010 – Ban ballistic missiles &

more frozen assets/fundso 2011/12 - Oil embargoes & freezing assets of Iranian Central Banko China cuts oil from Iran by 50%

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Sanctions Targeting 80% of Iran’s EconomyBut After 10 Years of U.S.-led War – Who is Winner?

Region = 56% Oil & 40% GasReserves + Petrochemicals

25% of World’s Oil Flow

ShippingPassage21 Miles

Wide

4/18/2012

African Interests

• Vast resources – Oil, gas,

& minerals

• Extensive poverty

• Extensive corruption

• Weak governments

• Lack strategy, planning,

standards

• Islamic fundamentalismo AQIMo Boko Haramo Terrorist Training

• North Africa Arab Spring

• Growing piracyo Ransoms in easto Attacks in west

•USG sees a “Chafrica”o China’s - “Let’s make a deal”o China’s naval forceso Growing roles for DOS &

AFRICOM

Now Think about Iran & China in South America

Threats

&

Resources

North

South

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AQIM

Piracy#3 in World

Piracy#1 in World

AQAP

Shabbab

Boko Haram

AQI

4/18/2012

Mexico Possibly a Failed State Already

• They are a large source of

oil and gas for US

• They have nuclear energy

• Extensive corruption at all levels of government

• Govt lost control of vast areas of the country

• Latin America’s 2d largest economy

• Largest recorded meth

bust in the world – 15To Transnational Criminal

Organization, but…

o Mexico becoming

a true “cartel” for

drug trade

• Violence spilling over

the bordero Shootings

o Theft

o Human trafficking

o Continuity of

business

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4/18/2012

Thank You

Q & A

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