Global changes and challenges concerning water: Where do

we go?

András Szöllösi-NagyUNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education

• Food prices up. Reasons:– floods: Australia– drought: Russia– bad weather: South

America– biofuel policies

• better forecasting models,optimal management of water resources

Floods and droughts: food, human lives, political crises

• Water CyclingDeeply Embedded in Earth System

• Interconnections are Strong

• Change to One Part Reverberates Throughout

• Complex research agenda

The Global Water System

Humans are changing the global water system in a globally-significant way

without…..adequate knowledge of the system and thus its response to change

First message:

6

•Is the cycle changing?•Increased risks?•Growing vulnerability?•More disasters ?•Less water for people?•Crisis is looming?•What crisis?•Global or local?

WATER

Global change drivers:

• Population growth, movement and age structures

• Geo-political changes and realignments• Trade and subsidies• Technological changes• Climate change

U.S. B

ureau of the Census

1950

Source:U.N. Population

Division

World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

2015

Source:U.N. Population

Division

World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

10

11

12

Global change impacts• Global change is more than global climate variability/change• It has natural PLUS human/social dimensions• A constellation of changes, many global in domain

For example, we see large changes in:

NOAA Vitousek (1994)

Mackenzie et al (2002)

Richards (1991), W

RI

(1990)Reid &

Miller(1989)

From: Steffen et al. 2004

The Earth System: Coupling the Physical, Biogeochemicaland Human Components

2

4

3

5

6

1

0

Glo

bal

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

IPCC Projectionsfor 2100

N.H

. Tem

pera

ture

(°

C)

0

0.5

1

-0.5

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Lower Risk forInstabilities

High Riskfor Instabilities

Flood Disaster in Pakistan (August, 2010)

Flood Disaster in Korea (September 21, 2010)

Flood Disaster in Australia (January, 2011)

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Does the cycle accelerate?

Climate change: What do we know?

• Global Mean Temperature have increased

• Greenhouse Gases play a role

• Reducing Emissions alone will not avoid impacts

Korea

Czech

ドイツ

China

Nepal

India

Bangladesh

Bolivia

Haiti/ Jamaica

Uruguay

USA

Mexico

Ecuador

PeruMicronesia

Philippines

Indonesia

Vietnam

Senegal

Ethiopia

Turkey

Austria

Kenya

France Afghanistan

Russia

Sri Lanka

Flood Drought

Major floods and droughts worldwide in 2002Major floods and droughts worldwide in 2002Germany China

USA

KoreaChinaGermany

Kenya

There is pressing need to develop advanced risk management on water hazard in order to secure human life and ensure sustainable socio-economic development and poverty alleviation.

ADAPTATION OPTIONS:

MORE STORAGEMORE HYDROPOWERMORE GROUNDWATER USEMORE INLAND NAVIGATION

WE WILL NEED MORE STORAGE

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STORAGE IS THE NEXUS BETWEENWATER / FOOD / ENERGY

2102550100>100

Stored Runoff< 2% annual flow

1800 20001900• 700% increase in

water held by river systems

• Several years of residence time change in many basins

• Tripling of river runoff travel times globally (from 20 up to 60 days)

• Substantial impact on aquatic biodiversity

• Interception of 30% of continental TSS flux

1950 2000

History of US Dam & Reservoir Construction

From: Vörösmarty et al. 2004, Eos-AGU Trans.

43746

1,287 1,4062,486

3,255

4,729

6,150

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000

Eth

iopi

a

Sou

thA

frica

Thai

land

Laos

Chi

na

Bra

zil

Aus

tralia

Nor

thA

mer

ica

Water storage per person (m3)

Infrastructure gap: Water storage [m3/person]

THE HYDROPOWER CHALLANGE

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Years

Rea

l GDP

gro

wth

(%)

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Varia

bilit

y in

Rai

nfal

l (M

eter

)

Real GDP grow th (%)

Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

Rainfall affects growth..the case of Zimbabwe

Vörösmarty et al. 2000

• 80% of future stress frompopulation

& development, not climate change!

•Correct Priorities?(E.g. 85% US global changeresearch funding to climate and carbon)

Water Stress Changes to 2025 (scenario)

FLOOD LOSSES IN FUNCTION OF GDP

LOOMING WATERCRISES

The time of easy water is over

Second message:

WATER IS A SOURCE OF COOPERATION

Third message:

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“There is no sustainable development without

adequate information about the state of the Earth and its

environment”

Statement at WSSD

Fourth message:

(Source: D. Solomatine)

Flow of information in a Hydroinformatics system

Earth observation, monitoring

Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Data modelling, integration with hydrologic and hydraulic models

Access to modelling results

Data Models Knowledge Decisions

Decision support

Map of flood probability

(Source: D. Solomatine)36

Remotely sensed data

High Technology Earth Systems Tools•Satellite data•Simulation models•Geospatial analysis tools

Huge progress but…

Our capacity to monitor remains limited

Fifth message:

The big challenge we all have

How to put water in the minds of people?

WATER EDUCATION,CAPACITY BUILDING,

EFFECTIVE PARTNERSHIP

SIXTH MESSAGE:

UNESCO-IHE is the largest international post-graduate water education facility in the world. The institute confers fully accredited MSc degrees and promotes PhDs.

The Institute carries out numerous research and capacity development projects throughout the world.

Since 1957 the Institute has provided post-graduate education to more than 14,500 water professionals from over 160 countries, the vast majority from the developing world.

WHO WE ARE & WHAT WE DO

REGIONAL 2010-2011DISTRIBUTION OF PARTICIPANTS

The 8/10 syndrome

UNESCO-IHE Governing Board (2009):“… reform is needed …”

REFORM PROCESSMove towards the UNESCO-IHE

Global Campus of Water Education and Research

What does that mean for Water Education?

WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WATER FOR THE 21ST

CENTURY?

We want to generate …

• The political will to … DO IT

• The capacity to … DO IT RIGHT

• The resources to … DO IT RIGHT NOW

“Anybody who can solve the problems of water will be

worthy of two Nobel Prizes, one for peace and one for

science.”

(President John. F. Kennedy)

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7th and FINAL MESSAGE: