Gil 2012 Africa Mega Trends Africa Infrastructure by David Winter

1

We Accelerate Growth

African Infrastructure Development

David Winter

Business Unit Leader Infrastructure - Africa

Why should African infrastructure development interest you and your business?

Africa – Key Infrastructure Statistics

$810 billion Total spending

needed over the next five years to upgrade,

rehabilitate and expand Africa’s infrastructure

$363 billion Is the current spending on

infrastructure development in Sub-

Saharan Africa

% of investment in Sub-Saharan

Africa on transport

infrastructure

56%

70% In land-locked

countries, transport accounts for 70%

Is the number of

countries in Africa which have regular

power outages

30

South Africa is currently

investing $145 billion in

infrastructure

$145

billion

50 years It will take 50 years for most

countries in Africa to reach

universal access to modern

infrastructure

50% Infrastructure

development has been responsible

for more than half of Africa’s

improved economic

performance

35% % of

investment in Sub-Saharan

Africa on energy and

power infrastructure

of the value of exported

goods

*based on active projects in 2011

Source: World Bank and Frost and

Sullivan analysis

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f9/BlankMap-Africa.svg

4

Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook

Infrastructure Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

< 0.5

0.5 – 1.0

1.0 – 5.0

5.0 – 10.0

0.0 – 15.0

15.0

Transport

$161 billion

Energy

$127 billion

Telecoms

$17 billion Water

$15 billion Social

$43 billion

Legend:

Investment ($ billion)

Total investment amounts to

$363 billion

Number of high value

projects, many valued

>$1 billion

Most projects

valued < $100

million


Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis

5


$363 billion is being invested in infrastructure development in Sub-

Saharan Africa

Nigeria and Mozambique

account for 10.8% and

9.4% of infrastructure

investment

South Africa is the leader in infrastructure development on the continent, investing $145 billion

$288 billion will be invested in the

transport and energy and power sectors

(Includes housing, hospital

and school construction)



6


What impacts infrastructure development on the continent?

Drivers

Restraints

Millennium

Development

Goal targets

Expansion of

the mining

industry

Increasing

private sector

participation

Corruption and

mal-

administration

Reliance on

private sector /

donor funding

Poor power

supply capacity, restricting the

growth of economies

Challenges

Project funds have to be secured from the private

sector / donors as African countries do not have

sufficient funds to support infrastructure development

Skills shortage on the continent results in

engineers and other skilled labour being imported for

projects, increasing costs

Political Instability in the long term increases

the risk of future projects. This challenge is

particularly pertinent in a country like Nigeria.


7


$28 billion will be invested in transport corridor development in Sub-

Saharan Africa

Road

Rail

Ports

$9.2 billion

$14.8 billion

$3.5 billion

Roads in good condition

Western 72%

Central 49%

Eastern 82%

Southern 100%

Container dwell times (International standard: 7 days)

Western 11-30

days

Eastern 5-28 days

Southern 4-8 days

Freight transport by rail

Western 11%

Central 2%

Eastern 2%

Southern 85%

Creation of 9 Trans-African Highways

Rail networks to receive bulk of investment

Ports development to decrease bottlenecks

10 transport corridors are being developed

across the region

Current state of transport infrastructure:


Source: World Bank and Frost and Sullivan analysis

8


Rail infrastructure is the fastest growing segment of transport

infrastructure

Ethiopia

$3.70B

Kenya

$405.5M

Tanzania

$5.37B

Mozambique

$3.66B

Botswana

$1.40B

Zambia

$93.8 M

Nigeria

$6.40B

Ghana

$6.40B

Namibia

$2.68B

Morocco

$14.67B Active rail projects amount

to $48 billion Planned

Ongoing

2

1

5

1

1

7 7

3

3 1

3

4 1

1

2

2

3 Multi-Country Mega Projects

Botswana-Mozambique-

Zimbabwe $7.0B

Isaka-Keza-Kigali

(Tanzania-Rwanda) $1.9B

Namibia-Botswana $1.3B *based on active projects in 2011


African

governments are

trying hard to

reduce the burden

on road

infrastructure

This will reduce

transport costs and

help open up land-

locked economies

$4.8 billion to be

invested in public

transport

infrastructure: Lagos, Abuja, Maputo, Addis

9


$94 billion will be invested in the energy sector in Sub-Saharan

Africa

2009 52.6 GW 2020 111.6 GW

Mining industry drives growth in installed capacity

2.0 GW

5.0 GW

3.3 GW

18.0 GW

0.4 GW

2.0 GW 3.6 GW

0.5 GW

1.7 GW

4.2 GW

2.0 GW

6.3 GW

2.2 GW

5.2 GW

0.4 GW

1.1 GW

0.1 GW

0.7 GW

40.0 GW

65.4 GW 2009

2020

$57.7 billion (12 GW) to be

developed in renewable

energies by 2020 across Africa

10,000 km of transmission

lines will be used to exploit

larger scale, cheaper energy

sources

Will continue to be the major

energy source to 2020

Governments to encourage

involvement of private

sector



Sub-Saharan Africa generation capacity is 68 GW - equal to Spain in Europe – South Africa produces 40 GW alone…

10


$15 billion will be invested in water and wastewater infrastructure in

Sub-Saharan Africa

Legend

Number of

projects

WT/

WWT

20/0

1/0

10/1

13/0

9/3

66/13

4/2

10/0 6/2

7/2 15/7

12/6

Number of projects

% o

f G

ree

nfie

ld p

roje

cts

<20%

20%-40%

40%-60%

60%-70%

>70%

Water projects greatly outnumber wastewater projects in Africa

Rehabilitation, upgrading and

improvement projects characterise

development

Large number of projects,

valued at less than $100 million

Piped water

Urban 39%

Rural 5%

Flushing toilet

Urban 25%

Rural 2%

Access to modern infrastructure:

Millennium Development Goals

are key driver

Majority of funding is donor

sourced

11


Snapshot of Mega-Infrastructure Projects across the

Continent

$2.5 billion

1600 MW

hydropower station

$10 billion

200,000 low

cost houses

$7 billion

1,100 km railway linking

Botswana to Mozambique

via Zimbabwe

$1.2 billion

1,500 km railway line linking

Namibia to Botswana

$14.5 billion

World’s 3rd

largest

supercritical

coal fired plant

$6.3 billion

2,000 MW Wind and

2,000 MW Solar Power Plan

$7 billion

Rehabilitation of

60,000km of urban

and rural roads

$6 billion

Development of a

new deep sea port



Gil 2012 Africa Mega Trends Africa Infrastructure by David Winter

Documents

Transcript of Gil 2012 Africa Mega Trends Africa Infrastructure by David Winter