New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

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Transcript of New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

  • 1.New Mega TrendsMacro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Personal Lives Phil Howarth, Partner

2. AgendaIntroduction and Definition of Mega TrendsPresentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future 1. Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors 2. Smart is the New Green 3. Social Trends: Generation Y 4. Beyond The BRICS 5. Connectivity and Convergence 6. Innovating to Zero ! 7. Health, Wellness and WellbeingKey Strategic Conclusions 3. Definition of a Mega TrendImpact of Mega Trends on KeyWhat is a Mega Trend? Organisational FunctionsMarketingandStrategy Mega Trends are global, sustained Innovation R&DBudget and macro economic forces of Scouting Spending development that impact business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives thereby defining ourfuture world and its increasing paceof change Technology CompetitivePlanningBenchmarking Product Planning andDevelopment 4. What were the Top Mega Trends in 2000? China as an Emerging Super Power Internet Retail and E-Commerce From Industrial to Information Society Outsourcing as a Business Model 5. Mega Trend 1:Urbanisation - Cityas a Customer 6. MegaMega CitiesRegions MegaCorridorMega Slums 7. Cities, and Not Countries,Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future Cities like Seoul, Budapest and Bogotaaccount for 50% of the countrys GDP; Gauteng will account for roughly 40% ofSouth Africas GDP by 2020 What are the Micro Implications? New Products and Solutions High Economic Power Hub and Spoke Business Model Transit oriented development New Mobility Solutions City as a Customer 8. From Cities Designed around Cars, Cars Are Designed around MegaCities - BMW i3 and i8 Megacity Vehicles Autonomous Parking BMW i3 Electric City Car Assistance Voice RecognitionTraffic Jam AssistanceRange Assist BMW i8 Plug In Hybrid Sports CarPro-active Collision Warning Panoramic RoofPure Electric, Zero EmissionRapid Charging Plug In Hybrid, 1.5L 3 Cylinder Gasoline, 66 g/km Carbon Fibre Reinforced Plastic Aluminium Chassis Smartphone App based remote vehicle Opening up iDrive API to third Investment in app companies thatmanagement (in-house app development) party app developers provide mobility related appsMultimodal Transport & EV related app includes dynamic intermodal transport planning 9. Urbanisation in Africa Luanda & Dar Es Salaam 2020, Luanda is expected to grow from Cairo 4.7 million in 2010 to over 8 million by 2025 forming a mega-city of high population density and commercial activity 16.3 Million People OuagadougouAbidjan Lagos and Eko Atlantic City Region Lagoss Eko Atlantic City will merge with Accra the city of Lagos to form a future businessLagos+Eko gateway to Africa aAtlantic City mega-region of over 16 millionLuanda Abidjan Accra Lagos & North South Corridors Transport routes across the region will be expanded and integrated to create corridors for trade and inter- -continental co-operation by linking mega-citiesCape Town 10. African Cities will increase by 25% by 2025; at an average growth rate of 3.4%,1.2 billion people, 60% of Africas population, will be urbanised by 2050 Growth of African Cities Algiers% increase, 2010- 2025 forecast 3.6 million AlexandriaDar es Salaam Casablanca 5.6 millionNairobi4.1 millionKinshasaLuanda Addis Ababa Addis Ababa AbidjanDakar 4.7 million Dakar4.3 million Lagos AbidjanIbadan6.3millionIbadanNairobi Accra Accra3.2 million6.2 millionDouala3.5 million Douala 3.1 million AlexandriaAlgiers Luanda Dar es Salaam 8 million6.2 millionCasablancaCairoDurbanJohannesburgCape TownCape Town 3.8 millionDurban0 2040 60 80 1003.2 millionMigrationMega City population, 2025Urban Population, 2025 Data Source: Africa Progress Report, 2010 11. Siemens Focuses on City as the CustomerPost-October 2011Pre- October 2011Siemens SectorsIntegrated Competencies into One DivisionCity as the CustomerEnergy Building TechnologiesHealthcare Smart Grid Infrastructure Rail Systems&CitiesIndustry OSRAM Mobility & LogisticsLow & Medium Voltage 12. Mega Trend 2:Smart is the NewGreen 13. Convergence of Technology Will Lead toConvergence of CompetitionIT PlayersSAP HP STElectronicsPoint of Convergence OracleMicrosoftGoogleCiscoAlcatel-VerizonLucent IBM SenergyEnergy/InfrastructureTelecom Players O2Players Deutsche Eaton TelekomSchneider SiemensElectric General ElectricEmersonABBHoneywell Johnson Controls Rockwell Automation Note: This is an illustration and does not show all market playersAutomation/Building Control Players 14. Mega Trend 3:Social Trends 15. Surge in Asian WorkPoolGeoGen YSocialization Middle Generational BulgePolitical Shift She- conomyAgeingReversePopulation Brain Drain 16. Global Population in 2020: Out of 2.56 Billion PopulationBetween 15-34 Years - Around 61% from Asia Alone World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020 20102 20201.8Around 37% of 15-347.55 Billion Population Will Live in 6.83 Billion 1.6India and China Alone in1.20.47 20200.531.40.160.09Population in Billion1.22.10.192.250.07 10.470.570.330.80.63 0.22 2.562.240.6 0.120.37 0.23 0.440.210.510.4 0.07 0.130.260.440.221.810.2 0.36 1.69 0.11 0.330.220.14 0.070.13 0Africa Rest of Asia Latin America, North AmericaEuropeIndiaChinaCaribbean and Oceania 65 Years and Above35-64 15-340-14 Population in Billions Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations 17. Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interestand LifestylePersonalization and Techno Savvy andCivic and Demanding and IndividualizationConnected 24 X 7 Environmentally Impatient Fast Friendlyand the FuriousGaming Gizmos Personalized Search and News Instant Text Messaging Eco- Transport Smart PhonesSocial Networking Profiles Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Insteadof Plastic) Instant ChatFacebook-on-the MovePersonalized Products Paperless BankingSpeed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)Microblogs 18. Mega Trend 4:Economic Trends 19. The Next Game Changers in 2025Russia $6,189 Billion Turkey $1,167Poland Billion $2,441 $38,526 Billion BillionChina$2,827$653BillionBillion $6,235 Thailand Billion$772 Egypt$323Brazil Billion Billion VietnamMexico India $483$5,437Billion BRIC Nations $4,816BillionBillion PhilippinesNext Game Changers$811 Billion Indonesia$1,098BillionArgentinaNote : The figure denotes GDP at market South Africaprices. Forecasts to 2025 have beenextrapolated based on Nominal GDPgrowth rate projections . 20. The African Game Changers Economic Diversification Country Comparison for Economic Diversity and Export Strength (Africa), 20104000 Angola Oil Producers(PrimaryNote: Bubble Size Denotes3500 sector GDP Per Capita (Current contributes to US$)3000 largest shareExport Strength: Per Capita Exports (US$)of GDP and Congo, Rep.exports)Tunisia2500 AlgeriaNamibia2000DiversifiedSouth Africa1500Morocco1000 EgyptNigeriaHighlydependant on Zambia Cote dIvoire 500primary sector SudanGuineaGhana Kenya Senegal Sierra LeoneMozambique In Transition Ethiopia Rwanda Madagascar 0TanzaniaCongo, Dem. Rep. Uganda20.030.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.090.0-500Economic Diversity: Manufacturing and Services Value Added (% of GDP) 21. Mega Trend 5:Connectivity & Convergence 22. 80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020 10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020 5 connected devices for every user by 2020 5 billion internet users by 2020 500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020 23. SPACE JAM: New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to BeLaunched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications By 2020, there will be GNSS Enabled Applications: approximately 927 Satellites Navigation (Civil, Military)(Communication 405; EarthObservation 151; Navigation Broadband Internet and 85; Reconnaissance 212Wireless Network and R&D 75) GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery systemAutomated guidance of machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site Galileo - intended to management provide more precisemeasurements than GPS or GLONASSChina developing BeidouCommercial market will be driven by broadcast; Mobile Automobile NavigationSatellite Services (MSS); voiceand Intelligent Trafficand data applications,Control System bundling IPTVApplications 24. Africa will experience a 530% increase in international bandwidth through undersea fibre cables by 2020Five new satellite companies usingKa band medium earth orbit Egypt (North Africa)satellites Landings points for SEA-ME-WE 4 and EIG SEACOM traffic is routed on SEA-ME-WE via Egypt 26,100 Gbps Investments in IT hosting services and BPO willSatellite Bandwidth 12,800 Gbpsleverage redundant bandwidth routes from100Gbpsmultiple cables2020 Egypt will become a key international hub for 16,200 Gbps international data carriers 6,400 Gbps201010Gbps Kenya (East Africa) Investments in VoIP will benefit from cheaper9,600 Gbps bandwidth Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal (West Africa) IPTV will be a key investment opportunity for ISPs and TV6,400 Gbps East Africa will be home to 40% of Africas broadcasters in west Africa contact centres A high population in Nigeria will present investment Cheaper bandwidth and growing skill base to opportunity in community based social media boost ICT BPO services Demand for better mobile voice and broadband quality will Abundant bandwidth will present investment present investment opportunities for solution vendors opportunities for providers of rich media South Africa `services such as IPTV in East Africa ISPs will leverage elaborate support infrastructure and reliable electricity supply to invest in hosted services19,700 Gbps South Africa will be home to 60% of Africas ICT data centre and cloud computing platforms Undersea Fibre Bandwidth ISPs and TV broadcasters will invest US$10 billion in IPTV5,460 Gbps delivery systems2020 International data carriers will leverage South Africas position to invest in IP transit networks for Southern Afri