GHG-AFOLU and EC4MACS

JRC-AL: EC4MACS kickoff, IIASA 6.3.2007 - 1

GHG-AFOLU and EC4MACS

Adrian Leip

Joint Research Centre

Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Climate Change Unit


Approach in CAPRI-DynaSpat

CAPRI – economic model with regional environmental indicators

→ Ammonia volatilization,

→ IPCC approach for GHG emissions, …

CAPRI – economic model with sub-regional environmental indicators

→ Full GHG balance in livestock/crop production systems

→ Nutrient balances, …

1. Downscaling to 1 km pixels

2. Linkage to process-based models


Agricultural land use map

area of interest: EU2730 Crops: Common wheat, Durum Wheat, Barley, Rye , Oats, Maize, Rice, Other cereals, Potatoes, Sugar beet, Other root crops,

Sunflower, Rape and turnip rape, Soya, Fibre and oleaginous crops, Tobacco, Other non permanent industrial crops, Dry pulses, Tomatoes, Other fresh vegetables, Floriculture, Fodder other on arable land, Fallow land, Fruit tree and berry plantations, Citrus fruits, Olive groves, Vineyards, Nurseries, Other crops, Permanent grass and grazing

temporal reference: year ~2000, linked to CAPRI scenariosresolution: 1km by 1km

STEP1: Delineate Homogenous Spatial Mapping Units -HSMU’s- i.e. areas with similar environmental conditions (Soil Mapping Unit, Corine, FSS-NUTS, slope) → ~140000 HSMU’s in EU15)

STEP2: Construct models (binomial logit) to estimate “crop shares” at observation points (LUCAS, ESTAT) in different land cover classes (Corine2000) and regions (explanatory variables soil, climate, topography)

STEP3: Estimating the shares of the individual crops in the HSMU’s consistently with ESTAT statistics at NUTS 2 level (highest posterior density)


Agricultural Land Use Map – Results I

Barley Grassland


Agricultural Land Use Map – Results II

Softwheat Maize


Applications

Biodiversity index

→ Biodiversity indicator (CAPRI-DynaSpat)

→ Energy use in Agriculture (CAPRI-DynaSpat)

→ Link to Land-Use Change model (CLUE) (NitroEurope)

→ Carbon sequestration modeling (CarboEurope)

→ Nitrogen and Carbon interactions (NitroEurope)

→ Cross Compliance Impact Assessment (CCAT)

→ Pest Risk Assessment (PRATIQUE)

→ Rural Development indicator (RWER)

→ Extension to forestry

→ Extension to livestock production

→ …


emission of NO, N 2O, N2, NH3 and CH4predicted gas fluxes predicted gas fluxes

NO

N2O

N2

NO 2-

Nitrat -denitrifier

N2O -denitrifier

Nitrit -denitrifier

nitrifier

NO 3-

NH3clay-

minerals

N2O

NO NH3

denitrification nitrification

NO 3-

DOC

exchange ofNO, N 2O, NO 3

-

NH4+DOC

soilmoisture

profile

O2-profile

O2-diffusion

meanannual

temperat.

dailyevapotrans-

piration

evaporation transpira-tion

watermovementin the soil

Soil climate

soilT-profile

CO 2

NH4+

DOC

non-degradable organic matter

very labile labile resistant

degradable organic matter

degradable microbial mattervery labile resistant

degradable humineslabile resistant

mineralisation

crop growth

waterdemand

rootrespiration

water uptake

water stress

N-uptake

dailygrowth

grain

wood

root

N-demand

LAIdepending

albedo

ecologicaldriver

soil vegetationclimate ecologicaldriver

human impact

Effect of temperature and moisture on mineralisation

predicted soilenvironmental forces substrate (C, N ) temperature moisture pH

anaerobicballoon

DNDC-Model

methanogenesis

CH4-oxidationCO2methanotrophic bacteria

- diffusion- gasbubbles- plant tranpsort

methanogenic bacteria

CH4

DOC CO 2

Changsheng Li, 1992, 2000, …


CAPRI-DNDC Data Flow

EUROSTAT national/regional statistics

Disaggregation of land use into HSMU

Production statistics estimation (HSMU level)

MARS potential yield estimates

A priori estimates (environmental parameters, LUCAS observation

points)

FAO/IFA national fertiliser use by crop, MAFF soil nutrient status

Nitrogen losses - partitioning

DNDC maximum yield

HSMU aggregation

DNDC-EUROPE: simulation of

environmental indicators

Input parameter estimation for a closed nitrogen balance (soil surface, HSMU

level)

DNDC input files

CAPRI

DNDC

Complete and consistent set of agricultural production statistics at the

NUTS 2 level


DNDC Emission Scenarios – Common Wheat

N2O/N2 RatioLeached NN-N2O

No nitrogenapplication

Mineral fertilizer+manure nitrogen

applicationmax > 10 kg N/ha/year max > 50 kg N/ha/year max >3


DNDC Emission Scenarios – Barley

N2O/N2 RatioLeached NN-N2O

No nitrogenapplication

Mineral fertilizer+manure nitrogen

applicationmax > 10 kg N/ha/year max > 50 kg N/ha/year max >3


Pathway of nitrogen lossesweighted average of all crops simulated [kg N/ha/year]

Leaching NH3 NO N2 N2O

Austria 18.4 31.9 0.5 8.8 4.1

Belgium 64.5 77.8 1.0 6.0 6.6

Denmark 82.3 50.9 0.6 4.2 3.0

Finland 33.9 9.9 0.8 81.2 12.0

France 30.0 39.3 0.5 3.0 3.2

Germany 39.5 39.1 0.8 9.9 5.8

Greece 13.9 19.8 0.4 2.6 2.2

Ireland 195.9 26.6 0.5 0.5 1.1

Italy 57.6 51.8 0.8 10.5 5.6

Netherlands 133.2 80.8 1.7 14.0 12.1

Portugal 36.3 32.4 0.4 4.5 2.1

Spain 29.1 39.7 0.5 2.6 2.9

Sweden 77.8 11.9 0.7 35.4 6.1

UK 48.7 33.0 0.4 1.6 1.7

EU15 43.5 38.8 0.6 7.9 4.1


Possible interactions

→ Improve environmental indicators in CAPRI

→ Link to GAINS• Stratification of emission factors, fractions or functions?• Stratification of abatement technology efficiency• Evidencing interactions / side effects of activities or measures• Can acceptance be improved if based on validated model?

→ Improved input data for modeling (e. g. soil carbon)

→ Zooming into area of focus (e.g. mountain areas, NVZ,

NATURA2000)

→ Potential to include local policies?

→ Link to nitrate leaching

→ More attention to crop growth module impact assessment

→ Comparison of land use map with SEI land cover map

GHG-AFOLU and EC4MACS

Documents

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