GEOG3839.15, The North American Drought Atlas
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Transcript of GEOG3839.15, The North American Drought Atlas
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READING FOR THURSDAYDavid Meko and Connie Woodhouse (2010), Application of streamflow reconstruction to water resources management. M.K. Hughes et al. (eds.), Dendroclimatology, Developments in Paleoenvironmental Research.
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QUESTIONWhat was Denver Water’s key concern regarding its water supply?
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QUESTIONWhat specific test did Denver Water use to assess whether or not tree rings were skillful estimators of river flow?
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h!p://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/tree-ring-laboratory/
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Ed Cook Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
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Observed discharge, Colorado River
Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)
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Low reservoir
Photograph: Glen MacDonald
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[The early 21st century drought] highlights both the extreme vulnerability of the semi-arid western United States to precipitation deficits and the need to be!er understand long-term drought variability and its causes in North America.
“”Cook et al., 2004
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To this end, we have used centuries-long, annually resolved tree-ring records to reconstruct annual changes in both drought and wetness over large portions of North America.
“”
Cook et al., 2004
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T H E N O R T H A M E R I C A N D R O U G H T A T L A S
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Tree-ring chronologies (red dots) Cook et al., JQS, 2010
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Palmer Drought Severity IndexThe PDSI incorporates historical records of precipitation and temperature into a water-balance model to estimate
the amount of water available in the soil relative to average conditions and is typically produced once a month.
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+4 extreme wet
-4 extreme drought
(compared to ‘average’ for that place)
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One hundred years of drought history around Minneapolis-St. Paul
Source: North American Drought Atlas
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Drought grid (blue dots) Cook et al., JQS, 2010
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Network reconstruction
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Drought grid (blue dots) Cook et al., JQS, 2010
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Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
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Average PDSI, AD 1580 to 1600
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HOW DO WE KNOW
THIS WORKS?
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empirical comparisons
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Dalhart, TX, 1938
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Source: David Stahle
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Tree ring
Source: David Stahle
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June 1833All-time record flooding on the Arkansas, Canadian, and Verdigris Rivers in Oklahoma. 950 displaced Creek and Seminole drown on floodplain farmsteads.
Source: David Stahle
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Source: David Stahle
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Tree-ring records through time Cook et al., Science, 2004
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Quality of PDSI estimates from tree rings Cook et al., JQS, 2010
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WHY RECONSTRUCT THE
PDSI?
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Source: David Stahle
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St. George et al., The Holocene, 2010
Seasonal precipitation ‘bias’ of NADA
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APPLICATIONS
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Cook et al., 2007, Earth Science Reviews
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How has the extent of severe drought changed through time?
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Observed (blue) and tree-ring (red) PDSI in ‘The West’
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A 1,000 years of drought in the West Cook et al., Science, 2004
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How do other aspects of the climate system influence the
frequency or severity of drought?
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EL NIÑ0SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
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Source: St. George et al., 2010
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Can the Drought Atlas help us place historical events within a context of long-term environmental change?
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Square Tower HouseMesa Verde, Colorado
Source: David Stahle
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Square Tower HouseMesa Verde, Colorado
Great Pueblo DroughtA.E. Douglass (1929)
Source: David Stahle
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North American Drought Atlas h!p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/paleo/pd08plot.pl
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Much of the world’s population lives in monsoon Asia and depends on monsoon rainfall for water and agricultural fertility.
“” Wahl and Morrill, 2010
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E R Wahl, C Morrill Science 2010;328:437-438
Average spatial pa!erns of precipitation and wind during summer
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MONSOON ASIA DROUGHT ATLAS
h!p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/cook2010/cook2010.html
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Photograph: Kevin Anchukaitis
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Tree-ring records across Monsoon Asia
E R Cook et al. Science 2010;328:486-489
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E R Cook et al. Science 2010;328:486-489
Tree rings show extent of ‘Great Drought’, 1876-1878
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E R Cook et al. Science 2010;328:486-489
Was the ‘Great Drought’ caused by ENSO or the North Pacific Ocean?
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The MADA is a crucial step forward for paleoclimate studies in a region that is of great social and climatological interest, but where the development of tree-ring archives faces immense challenges and instrumental data coverage is limited.
“”
Wahl and Morrill, 2010
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READINGEugene Wahl and Carrie Morrill (2010), Toward understanding and predicting monsoon pa!erns. Science 328, 437-438.
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GRADUATE STUDENT READINGBüntgen et al. (2011), 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility. Science 331, 578-582.