General election analysis 2017 - IFS · Sources: OECD Tax Database; Conservative Party Manifesto;...
Transcript of General election analysis 2017 - IFS · Sources: OECD Tax Database; Conservative Party Manifesto;...
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Institute for Fiscal Studies
General election analysis 2017
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Tax and benefit policies
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Robert Joyce
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Tax proposals: Labours’ by far the biggest
Labour has £53bn of tax rises in scorecard, less £4bn of “headroom”
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Corporation tax rate
increases , £19.4bn
Efficiency review of
corporate tax reliefs, £3.8bn
Anti-avoidance measures,
£8.8bn
Stamp duty, £5.6bn
Income tax and excessive
pay levy, £7.7bn
Other, £7.2bn
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Corporation tax: plans compared
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Sources: Labour Party Manifesto; IFS calculations.
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
Tax
rate
, %
Small profits rate
Main rate
£19.4
billion
£5.4
billion
Main rate
Small profits rate
Current plans
Labour’s plans:
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Main rate of corporation tax Lowest in G7 either way
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Sources: OECD Tax Database; Conservative Party Manifesto; Labour Party Manifesto.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Ireland Finland Sweden
Denmark Spain
Netherlands Austria
Luxembourg Greece
Portugal Belgium
UK (2020, current plan) UK (2017)
UK (2020, Labour plan) Canada
Italy Japan
Germany France
US
Corporation tax rate, %
G7
Rest of EU15
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Extend to derivatives and bonds; remove exemption for intermediaries
• Labour expects £5.6bn per year
Not simply a tax on rich bankers
• Likely losers include those saving in private pensions
Aim 1: ‘eliminate the most destabilising forms of speculative high-frequency trading’
• Unclear whether it will increase or decrease market volatility
Aim 2: ensure ‘public gets a fairer share of financial system profits’
• But it’s a tax on transactions, not profits
Removing the intermediaries exemption is ill-advised
• Shares sold via brokers rather than directly will be taxed twice
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Labour’s extension of 0.5% stamp duty
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All main parties propose more of these measures
• Difficult area, and unavoidable uncertainty over sums on the table
Conservative proposals: vague and no attempt to quantify
Labour: 8.8bn anti-avoidance/evasion measures
• £6.5bn package of measures
• £1.6bn offshore company property levy
• £0.7bn (unspecified) CFC reform
At least half of that unlikely to materialise
• £2.5bn mistake: double-counting impact of corporation tax rise on number of incorporations (and using wrong OBR number anyway)
• Offshore company property levy likely to raise £0 after people respond
• Upper & out of date estimate used as central estimate for ‘Mayfair loophole’
• Remaining policies come with downside risk
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Anti-avoidance/evasion measures
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© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Notes: Ignores transferable allowance for married couples. Excludes Scotland. .
The income tax schedule, 2017-18
0%
10%
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30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Mar
gina
l inc
ome
tax
rate
Annual taxable income (£000s)
Current
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© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Notes: Ignores transferable allowance for married couples. Excludes Scotland. .
The income tax schedule As if changes in place now
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Mar
gina
l inc
ome
tax
rate
Annual taxable income (£000s)
Conservative plan
Current
Cost: £1.8bn per year (2017-18 prices)
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© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Notes: Ignores transferable allowance for married couples. Excludes Scotland.
The income tax schedule As if changes in place now
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Mar
gina
l inc
ome
tax
rate
Annual taxable income (£000s)
Current
Liberal Democrat plan
Revenue: £6bn (2017-18 prices)
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© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Notes: Ignores transferable allowance for married couples. Excludes Scotland.
The income tax schedule As if changes in place now
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Mar
gina
l inc
ome
tax
rate
Annual taxable income (£000s)
Labour plan
Current
Bottom 98% of adults
Top 2% of adults
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© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Source: https://election2017.ifs.org.uk/article/labour-s-proposed-income-tax-rises-for-high-income-individuals
Uncertain revenues from Labour proposal Sensitive to degrees of behavioural response
-2
-1
0
1
2
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8
No response Low responsiveness Medium responsiveness High responsiveness
Ann
ual c
hang
e in
rev
enue
(£bn
)
Increases in marginal rates between £80,000 and £150,000
Increase in marginal rate above £150,000
Total £4 ½ bn
£2 ½ bn
£0 bn
£7 bn
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Working-age benefits
More big cuts to working-age benefits planned/being rolled out:
‒ Cuts to child tax credit (limiting entitlement to two children and removing the ‘family element’): £5bn a year in long run
‒ Most rates frozen until April 2020: £3bn a year in long run
‒ Roll-out of less generous universal credit: £5bn a year in long run
Big picture:
‒ Conservatives to stick to all of them
‒ Labour to stick to most of them
‒ Lib Dems to cancel most of them
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
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Working-age benefits: parties compared
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Proposal Estimated long-run annual cost
(£bn)
Conservatives Labour Lib Dem
Reverse cuts to child tax credit (family element; limit to 2 children)
4.8
Stop benefit freeze 3.3
Reverse cuts to work allowances in universal credit
3.0 £2 billion allocated
Sources: Conservative Party Manifesto; Labour Party Manifesto; Liberal Democrat manifesto.
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Working-age benefits: parties compared
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Proposal Estimated long-run annual cost
(£bn)
Conservatives Labour Lib Dem
Reverse/cancel cuts to child tax credit (family element; limit to 2 children)
4.8
Stop benefit freeze 3.3
Reverse cuts to universal credit 3.0 £2 billion allocated
Sources: Conservative Party Manifesto; Labour Party Manifesto; Liberal Democrat manifesto.
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Working-age benefits: parties compared
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Proposal Estimated long-run annual cost
(£bn)
Conservatives Labour Lib Dem
Reverse/cancel cuts to child tax credit (family element; limit to 2 children)
4.8
Stop benefit freeze 3.3
Reverse cuts to universal credit 3.0 £2 billion allocated
Implement court ruling on PIP 0.8
Reverse cut to ESA WRAG element 0.7
Abolish the so-called 'bedroom tax' 0.4
Increase carer's allowance or extend eligibility 0.2 - 0.4
Reintroduce housing benefit for 18-21s Negligible
Scrap bereavement support payment reforms Negligible
Sources: Conservative Party Manifesto; Labour Party Manifesto; Liberal Democrat manifesto.
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Long run distributional impact of personal tax and benefit measures already planned
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Poorest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Richest All
% c
hang
e in
net
inco
me
Income Decile Group
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© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
Long run distributional impact of personal tax and benefit measures
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Poorest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Richest All
% C
hang
e in
net
inco
me
Income Decile Group
Current plans
Current plans + Labour manifesto
Current plans + Conservative manifesto
Current plans + Lib Dem manifesto
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Conclusions
Conservatives largely sticking with plans already laid down
• But these are themselves substantial: big benefit cuts in the pipeline, hitting low-income working-age households
Labour propose big changes, which are likely to reduce inequality
• But the tax rises would not merely hit the top 5%: would also affect more “ordinary households”
• All taxes – not just personal taxes – affect people
Only small % of Labour’s extra revenue is earmarked for benefits
• Lib Dems would go further in cancelling planned benefit cuts
• Labour focusing more on increases in other public spending
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
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Annex on distributional analysis
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
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Long run distributional impact of personal tax and benefit measures already planned – cash terms
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Poorest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Richest All
Chan
ge in
ann
ual n
et in
com
e (£
)
Income Decile Group
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Long run distributional impact of personal tax and benefit measures – cash terms
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Poorest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Richest All
Chan
ge in
ann
ual n
et in
com
e (£
)
Income Decile Group
Current plans
Current plans + Labour manifesto
Current plans + Conservative manifesto
Current plans + Lib Dem manifesto
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Policies modelled in distributional analysis
Current plans • Freeze of most working age benefits in April 2018 and April 2019
• Local housing allowance rate freeze in April 2018 and April 2019
• Applying LHA rates to housing benefit claimants renting from local councils or housing associations
• Transitioning from disability living allowance to personal independence payment
• Abolition of the work-related activity group premium in ESA
• Council tax precept increase in April 2018
• Abolition of Class 2 National Insurance contributions
• Transition from the legacy system to universal credit (UC)
• Limiting the child element in tax credits and UC to two children
• Removal of the family element in tax credits and UC and family premium in housing benefit
• Support for mortgage interest switched from a benefit to a loan
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
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Policies modelled in distributional analysis
Labour
• Implementing the court decision on personal independence payment
• Increasing the WRAG premium in ESA to £30 per week
• Abolishing the so-called ‘bedroom tax’
• Increasing carer’s allowance up to the level of JSA
• Abolishing the married couples’ transferable personal allowance
• Reversing two-thirds of the cuts to work allowances in UC
• Increasing income tax rates for those earning over £80,000
• Introducing the ‘excessive pay levy’
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
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Policies modelled in distributional analysis
Conservatives
• Replacing universal free school lunches for infants with universal free school breakfasts for all primary-age children
• Increasing the personal allowance to £12,500 and the higher rate threshold to £50,000 by 2020
• Means testing winter fuel payment (assume only given to those on pension credit)
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies
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Policies modelled in distributional analysis
Liberal Democrats • Ending the freeze on most working age benefits
• Increasing all income tax rates by 1pp
•Abolishing the married couples’ transferable personal allowance
• Increasing the earnings threshold for carer’s allowance to £150 per week
• Abolishing the so-called ‘bedroom tax’
• Uprating LHA rates with average rent in the area rather than CPI
• Reversing the limiting of the child element in tax credits and UC to two children
• Increasing the WRAG premium in ESA to £30 per week
• Reversing the cuts to work allowances in UC
• Reintroducing the family element in child tax credits and housing benefit
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Tax and benefit policies