Gender, Urban Space and Global Circulation

Deputy Minister of Human, Society and Cultural DevelopmentMinistry of National Development Planning/BAPPENAS

The 2nd International Conference on Strategic and Global Studies (ICSGS) Jakarta, 24th October 2018

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Vision for The Future

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Indonesia 2045

INDONESIA

2045Independent, Developed, Fair, and Prosperous Nation

Indonesian citizen who excel,cultured, and are advanced of

science and technology

Inclusive and equal development

Advanced and sustainable economy

Strong democratic country

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Urbanization in Indonesia

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Indonesia’s Population Projection 2015-2045

2015 2045*

255.1 millionTotal Population

318.9 million

2.28Total Fertility Rate

2.1

70.8 years

Life Expectancy

75.5 years

49.2%Dependency Ratio

53.5%

65.76%Labor Participation

53,1% Urban Population 67,1%

Source: *Indonesia Population Projection Revision

2015-2045 (latest estimates)

• In 2045, Indonesia will experience a substantial population growth- an increase of 63.4 million or

24.7 percent. About 67.1 percent of population will live in urban areas.

• Numbers of working age population will continue to increase, but the share of younger groups

(aged 15-29) will decline. It is likely as the result of the extension of average years of schooling.

• The labor force is projected to grow over the next 30 years at an annual rate of 1.84 percent. By 2045, the labor force is projected to reach 206 million.

80%

Projection 2030 2045

Labor Force

(15+ years)

177.9

million

206.4

million

Labor Force

Participation

Rate77% 80%

Workers170.4

million

199.2

million15.000 10.000 5.000 0 5.000 10.000 15.000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Thousand people

2045

Laki-laki Perempuan Bekerja Sedang Sekolah LainnyaOtherMale Female Working Schooling

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Advanced Urbanization in Java

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SUMATERA51,697,225 PEOPLE39.1% URBAN / 60.9%RURAL

KALIMANTAN14,105,730 PEOPLE42.2% URBAN / 57.8% RURAL

3 JAVA138,311,286 PEOPLE58.6% URBAN / 41.1%RURAL

SULAWESI17,663,879 PEOPLE33.6% URBAN / 66.4%RURAL

BALI AND NUSATENGGARA13,327,280 PEOPLE39.2% URBAN / 60.8%RURAL

MALUKU AND PAPUA11,972,106 PEOPLE29.4% URBAN / 70.6% RURAL

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5

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Tier 1 –Metropolitan>1,000,000

Tier 2 – LargeCity500,000 – 1,000,000

Tier 3 –Medium City100,000 – 500,000

Tier 4 –Small City

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149 MIO1,103 PEOPLE/KM2

15,3 MIO 28,2 PEOPLE/KM2

55,2 MIO114,8 PEOPLE/KM2

18,7 MIO99,2 PEOPLE/KM2

6,9 MIO13,8 PEOPLE/KM29,9 MIO

147 PEOPLE/KM2

Uneven Population Distribution and Demographic Transition

Late transition

Below replacement rate TFR,

large share of older population,

window of opportunity has

passed

Early transition

Increasing share of children

and working population, older

people start to increase

Pre-transition

stagnant declining fertility,

later period of window

opportunity

Uncertainty to reach the

window of opportunity

High fertility, high mortality,

low access to education and

health,

Sources: 1. Adioetomo, Forthcoming IRSA Book Series on Regional Development No. 15, 2017; 2. Central Statistical Bureau, Supas 2015

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Spreading Growth through Urban Development

= Main roads

= Rails

= National Activity Centers

= Regional Activity Centers

= Aerotropolis

= Port cities

Legend:

= PLTN

= Airports

= Palapa Ring Lane

= Dam

Mebidangro

Patungrayaagung

Jabodetabekjur

Bandung Basin

Kedungsepur

Gerbangkertosusilo

Sarbagita

Banjarbakula

Mamminasata

Manado-

Minahasa-Bitung

Ambon

Sorong

Jayapura

= KSN

= PKN

Mebidangro = Medan-Binjai-Deli Serdang-Karo

Patungrayaagung = Palembang-Betung-Indralaya-

Kayuagung

Jabodetabekjur = Jakarta-Bogor-Depok-Tangerang-Bekasi-

Cianjur

Kedungsepur = Kendal-Demak-Ungaran-Salatiga-Semarang-

Purwodadi

Gerbangkertosusilo = Gresik-Bangkalan-Mojokerto-

Surabaya-Sidoarjo-Lamongan

Sarbagita = Denpasar-Badung-Gianyar-Tabanan

Banjarbakula = Banjarmasin-Banjarbaru-Banjar-

Barito Kuala-Tanah Laut

Mamminasata = Makassar-Maros-Sungguminasa-

Takalar

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Urban Agglomeration as an Engine of Economic Growth

0,67%

1,21%

2,18%

2,24%

3,08%

6,55%

16,20%

19,15%

Sarbagita

Mamminasata

Kedungsepur

Mebidangro

Bandung Raya

Gerbangkertosusilo

DKI Jakarta

Jabodetabek

Contribution of Metropolitan Areas to GDP in 2015

More than 90% of the richest

Indonesians reside in

Jabodetabek, controlling more

than 50% of financial wealth

All metropolitan areas have

contributed more than one

third of National GDP in

2015

Almost half of the urban

contribution to the National

GDP comes only from DKI

Jakarta

Source: Boston Consulting Group (2017)

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Urbanization Without Growth

Left-hand side: urbanization rate, percent; Right-hand side: GDP per capita in 2011 PPP

Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2018, World Bank staff calculations

Share of urban

population

GDP per

capita

0

4.000

8.000

12.000

16.000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

4.000

8.000

12.000

16.000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

4.000

8.000

12.000

16.000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

China East Asia & Pacific

(excluding high-

income, China and

Indonesia)

Indonesia

• For every one per cent increase in the share of urban population per capita income was growing by 3 per cent, 2.7 per cent per year on average for China and EAP countries, respectively. While for Indonesia, only 1.4 per cent per year.

• The better leveraged is urbanization, the more it will benefit national economic growth

• But if badly managed, there isa risk of “urbanization without growth”

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Chronic Shortages in Access to Basic Infrastructure

Source: Bappenas dan Yayasan Pelangi

IDR 128T yearly loss because of traffic congestionannual growth of

rapid motorization9%public transport

share5-20%

air pollution costIDR 28T

72% access to improved water supply access

National pipeline water18%

67,5%Improved sanitation access

(including 7,4% safe access,

appr. 2% of sewerage and

appr. 5% of FSM*)

1%served by sewerage

systems

14 cities having substantial sewerage networks

11.4mioHousehold have no

house

11.6mioHouseholds live in homes

with physical buildings

unfit for habitation

10.8mioHouseholds who must

live to share the roof with

other families

20 champion cities/districts for FSM*

*FSM = Fecal Sludge Management

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Marginalized Groups: Women and Children

HEALTH ECONOMY AND SOCIAL

A slum residential area is vulnerable to violence against women and children

How women can be comfortable and safe to be involved in economic activities by using public transportation

The lack of clean water and sanitation facilities causes diarrhea, polio, pneumonia, and skin diseases for children, also reproductive health problems for young women

Unfriendly and unsecure urban transport for women, children and disability.

Reducing the space for women and children to be socially active in the community.

Delinquency of children, is caused by lack of public space to interact each other

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Demographic Dividend Preparation Must Be Immediate

40

42

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54

20

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41

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43

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44

20

45

%

Dependency Ratio

TFR 2,1 TFR Trend

Population Projection 2010-2035

Population Projection 2015-2045 (TFR Trend)

Population Projection 2015-2045 (TFR Trend)

Peak Year 2022Dependency Ratio 45,44%End Year 2041

Peak Year 2021 Dependency Ratio 45,42%End Year 2037

Peak Year 2030 Dependency Ratio 46,9%End Year 2043

• From Supas 2015 population projections, preparations for getting demographic dividend are getting narrower.

• Based on projections by keeping TFR at the replacement rate level, demographic dividend period is expected to end in 2037.

• Dependency ratio for TFR 2.1 is relatively lower before the peak - proportion of productive age is higher.

• Increased labor productivity as one of the keys to extend demographic dividend.

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Economic Contribution and First Demographic Deviden

• In 2020-2024, the

contribution of

population structure will

be change towards

economic growth around

0,2-0,3 pp

• Through investment which

is being prepared to ageing

population, the total of

demographic deviden is 0,6

pp

• In 2020-2024, there wll be

60 effective workers to

provide 100 people

• Optimalizing

demographic bonus just

in 5 years from now0,55

0,56

0,57

0,58

0,59

0,6

0,61

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

% c

on

trib

uti

on

to

wa

rds

con

om

icg

row

th

Economic Support Ratio and First Demographic Deviden

Demographic Dividend TFRTrend

Demographic Dividend TFR2,1

Support Ratio TFRTrend

Support Ratio TFR2,1

First

Demographic

Bonus

EconomicSupport

Ratio

Jum

lah p

ekerja e

fektif dib

andin

gkan

penduduk

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Demographic Dividend Shifting

No Province PeakYear DependentNumber EndYear

2010-2035 2015-2045

(Trend/TFR 2,1)

2010-2035 2015-2045

(Trend/TFR 2,1)

2015-2045

(Trend/TFR 2,1)

1 JawaTengah 2021 2022/2021 50,98 46,04/46,02 2035/2033

2 JawaBarat 2023 2025/2023 47,73 44,06/44,12 2044/2039

3 Banten 2022 2023/2022 47,14 43,59/43,597 2043/2040

4 Bangka Belitung 2020 2021/2021 47,59 44,45/44,41 2044/2040

5 Bengkulu 2020 2020/2020 47,36 44,61/44,56 2046/2041

6 Jambi 2020 2020/2020 48,41 45,06/45,02 2043/2038

7 Kalimantan Timur 2019 2019/2019 47,20 41,17/41,13 2043/2039

8 Kalimantan Selatan 2015 2015/2015 50,83 47,35/47,35 2036/2033

9 Kalimantan Tengah 2021 2021/2021 46,21 41,85/41,8 2045/2041

10 Gorontalo 2022 2023/2022 47,32 44,07/44,05 2044/2040

11 Kepulauan Riau 2025 2026/2025 43,42 41,31/40,91 --

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Demographic Dividend: Need to Work Hard

Demographic dividend is only

nominal calculation. We need to

follow-up with strategic policies

to optimize the results.

Result:

✓ High productivity increases workers' wages.

✓ Workers' wages increase consumption and

investment.

✓ Consumption and investment will drive

economic growth.

Key:

✓ Increase worker productivity.

✓ Through increasing human capital.

✓ Provide employment opportunities.

Saving and Investment

Adaptive and competitive

workforce

Good health before

entering productive

age

Active Ageing

+

%

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Policies

Demand Supply

• The working-age population in urban or “urbanized” rural areas face the

same situation: Competing for non-

specialized jobs. People with low

education or unskilled will not be

able to compete.

• Therefore, development of new growth centers in regions/areas far

from cities is needed to reduce the

burden of urbanization in urban

areas.

• Creating more jobs and better opportunities in rural areas.

• Skills training to produce adaptive and resilient workforce to technological change.

• Certification of workers.• Development of sound labor market

information system to facilitate interaction of

supply and demand.

• Expansion of social security coverage for workers including for women and men in

formal and informal sectors.

• Wage policy that can increase real wages for both formal and informal workers and also

can reduce wage gap between women and

men.

• Provide special training for youth, including women and disability that can leverage their

capacity.

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Sustainable Urban Planning and Development

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SDGs:Universal;

Integration; No One Left Behind

NUA: Equality – Leave No One Behind: Sustainable and

Inclusive; Environmental Sustainability

Integrating SDGs and NUA in Indonesia

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National Urban Policy

Integrated

Planning,

Budgeting

and

Financing

Outcomes

Prosperity LivabilityInclusiveness

Regulation: NSPK*, integrated planning

Institutional: management, law enforcement

Financing: planning-budgeting-financing integration

Implementation

Framework

*norms, standards, procedures, criteria

Application of Principles

Smart City for efficient implementation of development and

increased accountability of local government

Government

Regulation on

Urban

Management

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Vision for National Urban

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Livable, Inclusive and cultural Universal access includingwomen, children, elderly,and people with disabilityto basic services

Competitive citiesProductivity and prosperity in sustainability principles including women and disability to be involve in economic activities.

Green and resilient citiesVulnerability to disaster is addressed properly;secure and comfortable mass public transport system

National urban system for prosper and just citiesprioritize urban development and more balanced urban system

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THANK YOU

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