GEMS Global Reactive Gases Guy P. Brasseur Martin Schultz Max Planck Institute for Meteorology...
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Transcript of GEMS Global Reactive Gases Guy P. Brasseur Martin Schultz Max Planck Institute for Meteorology...
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GEMSGlobal Reactive
GasesGuy P. Brasseur
Martin SchultzMax Planck Institute for Meteorology
Hamburg, Germany
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GRG Objectives
• To set up an operational data assimilation system for chemically reactive gases on a global scale, providing products to end-users on a day-by-day basis.
• Coordinator: G. Brasseur, MPIMET
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AtmosphereModels
OceanModels
Land SurfaceModels
TerrestrialBiosphere
Models
Solid Earth
Models
Car
bon
Cyc
lean
d B
ioge
oche
mis
try
Wat
er C
ycle
The Earth SystemUnifying the Models
The Predictive Earth System
Megaflops Gigaflops Teraflops Petaflops
Natural HazardPrediction
Hydrology
ProcessModels
Climate / WeatherModels
2000 2010
Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring, Assimilation and Prediction Systems
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Specific Goals (1)
• Acquire satellite data for a few chemical species (ozone, NOx, CO, CH2O), assess the quality of these data, and implement these data into the GEMS 4-D var assimilation system.
• Use 3 existing chemistry transport models at ECMWF to provide the chemical source terms required by the assimilation system, and calculate the concentration of chemical compounds that are not assimilated by the ECMWF system.
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Specific Goals (2)
• Develop prototype user services including – predicted global distributions of reactive chemical
compounds in the troposphere and stratosphere – surface UV forecasts, – volcano plume forecasting system
• Evaluate reanalysis simulations and assess the quality of the predictions using routine chemical observations and event-based case studies.
• Provide information for regional air quality predictions
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O3, Fishman: MAM 1979 - 2000
NASA/Fishman: SON 1979 - NASA/Fishman: SON 1979 - 20002000
Space Observations of chemical species
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Air Pollution becomes a global problem
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Chemical Weather seen from Space
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Chemical Weather seen from Space
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Mexico City from Satellites – 1GOME NO2 December average
Data courtesy J. Burrows, U. BremenProcessing by S. Massie, NCAR
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NOx and Lightning
GOME and SCIAMACHY will provide information on NOx produced by lightning
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Aug
ust
Sep
tem
ber
Monthly Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimation for Monthly Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimation for
20022002Hybrid remote sensing fire products: GOES WF_ABBA AVHRR and GOES Hybrid remote sensing fire products: GOES WF_ABBA AVHRR and GOES
(INPE) MODIS (NASA)(INPE) MODIS (NASA)
Freitas et al 2005 Duncan et al.2003 EDGAR 3.2Freitas et al 2005 Duncan et al.2003 EDGAR 3.2
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www.cptec.inpe.br/www.cptec.inpe.br/
meio_ambientemeio_ambiente
Carbon Monoxide (ppb 72 m)Carbon Monoxide (ppb 72 m)Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004
Carbon Monoxide Source Emission Carbon Monoxide Source Emission (kg/m(kg/m22 s) - 3/September/2004s) - 3/September/2004
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GOES+METEOSAT IR GOES+METEOSAT IR 2100Z/4/September/20042100Z/4/September/2004
Carbon Monoxide (ppb 10700 m)Carbon Monoxide (ppb 10700 m)Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004
Upper troposphere transport associated Upper troposphere transport associated to the a mid-latitude cold front approachto the a mid-latitude cold front approach
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Net Ozone Production Rate as a function of NOx levels
summertime surface conditions
HO2+O3
HO2+NO OH+NO2
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Data
MOCAGE
TM
MOZART-3
Products, User services
P, LGEMS Global System
Data
Tracer distributions
syn
thes
is
evaluation assimilation
initial condition
GRG in GEMS
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Workpackages
• WP-GRG-1: Assimilation of gas-phase chemical species in the stratosphere and troposphere– Activity Leader: H. Eskes, KNMI
• WP_GRG_2: Implementation of global chemistry-transport models in the ECMWF system– Activity Leader: G. Brasseur and M. Schultz, MPIMET
• WP_GRG_3: Development of prototype user services– Activity Leader: A. Arola, FMI
• WP_GRG_4: Evaluation of reanalysis and simulations– Activity Leaders: K. Law (SA_UPMC) and J.P. Cammas,
CNRS-LA)
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WP-GRG-1: Assimilation of gas-phase chemical
species in the stratosphere and troposphere
• 1.1. Extension of ECMWF assimilation system to include new tracers (O3, NOx, CO, SO2, HCHO)
• 1.2. Evaluation of chemical formation and loss rates for chemical species.
• 1.3. Addition of these chemical sources to the ECMWF assimilation system
• 1.4. Assessment and delivery of satellite data for ozone and other tracers
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WP-GRG-1
• 1.5-1.7.. Collection of satellite data for ozone, NO2, SO2, HCHO, and CO , reformatting the use in the IFS, and monitoring the data against IFS.
• 1.8-1.10. Assimilation of ozone, NO2, SO2, HCHO, and CO satellite data.
• 1.11 Implementing a nudging capability for assimilated tracer fields into the CTMs
• 1.11-1.14. Critical assessment of assimilated fields
• 1.15. Review of inverse modeling techniques for non-CO2 gases
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WP_GRG_2: Implementation of global chemistry-
transport models in the ECMWF system
• 2.1-2.3. Implementation of 3 chemical transport models (MOZART3, TM5 and MOCAGE) on the ECMWF computer
• 2.4-2.6 Test simulations with these models• 2.7. Definition of variables and quality criteria
for model intercomparisions• 2.8. Model intercomparison• 2.9-2.10. Provision of the emission data for the
GEMS CTMs
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WP-GRG-2
• 2.11 Preparation of data sets for first reanalysis simulations
• 2.12. Implementation of short-term variability in emission fluxes
• 2.13. Implementation of a global wildfire emission model on the ECMWF computer
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The 3 Chemical Transport Models
• MOCAGE: Multi-scale CTM developed by Meteo-France (Peuch et al., 1999) using the RACM scheme to describe the chemistry of the troposphere. Advection is treated by a semi-Lagrangian algorithm.
• TM5: CTM introduced in the Netherlands by KNMI with a tropospheric module adopted from the CBM4 scheme. Uses the Prather scheme for advection. Includes two-way nested zooming capability over Europe. (Krol et al., 2004)
• MOZART-3: CTM developed by NCAR and MPI-M. Uses its own chemical scheme and treats advection using the Lin and Rood algorithm (Brasseur et al. 1998; Horowitz et al., 2003; Kinnison et al., 2005).
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WP_GRG_3: Development of prototype user services
• 3.1-3.3. Global distributions of background levels of pollutants.
• 3.4. Consolidation of the results of the 3 CTMs.• 3.5. Selection of the appropriate methods for the
effect of clouds and surface albedo on UV radiation.
• 3.6. Implementation and comparisions of suitable parameterizations for clouds and surface albedo
• 3.7. First version of look-up tables for surface UV irradiance
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WP-GRG-3
• 3.8. First versions of interpolation methods for the look-up tables.
• 3.9. Development of validation software and tools
• 3.10. Initial implementation of UV calculations within the ECMWF system.
• 3.11. Preliminary validation of UV products against the ground-based UV data
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WP_GRG_4: Evaluation of reanalysis and simulations
• 4.1. Inventory of community-accessible data sets
• 4.2. Definition of parameters for model evaluation
• 4.3. Preliminary evaluation of reanalysis runs• 4.4. Definition and preparation of case studies.
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Major Groups involved
• WP_GRG_1: Assimilation of gas-phase chemical species– KNMI, ECMWF, MPI-M, BISA, IUP_UB,
SA_UPMC, NKUA, Meteo-Fr
• WP_GRG_2: Implementation of global chemistry transport models in the ECMWF system– MPI-M, KNMI, Meteo-Fr, ECMWF, SA-UPMC
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Major Groups involved
• WP_GRG_3: Development of prototype user services– FMI, DMI, ECMWF, MPIM, Meteo-Fr
• WP_GRG_4: Evaluation of reanalysis simulations– CNRS-LA, SA-UPMC, DWD, NKUA, MPIM,
BISA, Meteo-Fr
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Total Column Ozone (DU) September 25, 2002
1.25 lon x 1.0 lat
1.9 lon x 1.9 lat
EPTOMS MZ3/ECMWF
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Ozone Lindenberg, May 2003
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Comparison of HALOE and MZ3/WACCM H2O (ppmv)
Monsoon
100 hPa
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Comparison of HALOE and MOZART3/WACCM H2O – Park et al. 2003
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Retrieval Artifact
TP ht based on ECMWF lapse rate
TP ht based on PV criteria
Lightning NOx Penetration into the LS??
Meridional Cross Section of NOx in the South Asian Monsoon Region (60-120E), Sept
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Ozone Change 2000-2100 A2
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The End