GB Potatoes MI April 2013 Final

GB Potatoes:

Market Intelligence 2012-2013Ap

ril 20

13

UPDA

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Market Intelligence 2012-2013

Welcome to GB Potatoes: Market Intelligence 2012-13

The aim of this annual potato publication is to inform business decisions by providing the industry with the latest annual trends, including world potato production, the structure of the GB market incorporating areas, production, prices, supplies and disposals, consumption, retail and foodservice data.

The publication provides fi nal fi gures for the 2011/12 crop year and latest provisional fi gures for the 2012/13 season (as of November 2012). This report also highlights where you can fi nd the latest information throughout the season.

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) Market Intelligence Division

The role of the AHDB Market Intelligence division is to communicate accurate, timely, independent and impartial information on markets and prices.

The aim is to ensure that our levy payers and stakeholders are properly informed of changes in markets which will equip them to make the best business decisions.

The Potato Market Specialist Team

As an integral part of the Market Intelligence division, the Potato market specialist team provides information to help growers and purchasers understand the business environment for potatoes. The information is provided to support sustained demand for potatoes grown by AHDB levy payers.

The potato industry is infl uenced by other on-farm enterprises and, therefore, the team works closely with all AHDB market specialists.

How do we know our outputs are t for industry?Market Intelligence data and deliveries are regularly peer-reviewed via the Potato Council Market Information Committee. The committee is made up of potato growers, packers, processors, industry bodies, government and seed suppliers to ensure the information provided continues to meet current industry needs. The committee also recommends new areas of focus as the potato industry develops. You can see a list of the current members on page 21.

Market Intelligence 2012-2013

Contents

The GB Potato Industry ........................................................................ 1

Consolidation of the GB Industry ..........................................................12

Longer-term Trends ..............................................................................16

The European Market ...........................................................................19

World Production ................................................................................. 20

Potato Council Market Information Committee .....................................21

Potato Council Data Collection ............................................................ 22

Potato Council Market Intelligence Information Services and Levy Payer Data Centre ....................................................................... 23

Data Sources ........................................................................................24

NEPG Representative Organisations .....................................................25

Glossary .............................................................................................. 26

Contacts ...............................................................................................27

The GB Potato Industry

Market Intelligence 2012-2013 | 1

2012 an exceptional year

The provisional GB potato production estimate in December, at 4.64m tonnes, was down 24% from the previous season and the lowest since the major drought year 1976. This reduction comprised a 5% drop in planted area, to 121,800 hectares, and a yield reduction of 20% to 38.1t/ha, due to the extremely challenging growing season.

An eighteen-month period of dry weather across England prior to planting led to concerns about reservoir levels for irrigation and the ability to achieve skin fi nish on pre-packing samples should it develop into a dry season. The Eastern counties in particular had been in a state of drought since the previous crop harvest and, by April 2012, according to the Environment Agency, this had spread, with the majority of the country now offi cially in drought.

While the season began dry across much of England and Wales, in Scotland, however, waterlogged conditions persisted for a third consecutive season.

According to the Met Offi ce, March was the driest in the UK since 1953 and the warmest since 1957. By the end of the month, a quarter of the GB potato crop was in the ground as a result, a level of progress matching that time last year.

From April onwards, a change in the weather to unusually cold, dull and wet conditions across GB meant planting progress and crop development were affected. April was unseasonably colder than March and the coldest since 1989. It was also the wettest on record at 182% normal rainfall.

While all regions were affected by the diffi cult conditions, the magnitude of the impact varied crucially on when crops were planted, soil type and topography. The obvious delay to the start of this new season results in the strengthening of old season (2011/12) stored crop.

Just over 2,300 specialist growers make up the GB potato industry which delivers a sales value of 731m at farm gate and 5.7bn at consumer level. Potatoes require a high level of investment by professional growers, in terms of specialist machinery, agronomy and management. They are also signifi cantly infl uenced by in-season weather conditions with the spring and summer months crucial to crop development and 2012 being no exception.

The provisional GB potato production estimate in December, at 4.64m tonnes, was down 24% from the previous season and the lowest since the major drought year of 1976.

The GB Potato Industry | 2

Planting continued much later than usual. By June, many early planted crops were yet to emerge, some fi elds requiring replanting and some Scottish growers continuing to plant into July.

The Early Crop Development report on page 13 highlights the seasonal impacts of 2012. For the period up to 28 July, average yields were 25.7t/ha compared to 34.9t/ha the previous year. The late start meant planting, crop development and lifting were running approximately three weeks behind the previous season. Ex-farm prices held strong; however, marketable yield was severely impacted.

The pressures of the spring continued into the summer months for the GB main crop with, according to the Met Offi ce, the highest rainfall for a hundred years reported in June, July and August, in addition to it being the dullest since 1987 and with temperatures 0.4OC below average. The challenging climatic conditions also contributed to a later cereal harvest, further interrupting potato operations.

It became apparent during summer that there was signifi cant variation between early and late planted crops. The wet conditions meant that some earlier planted crops lost nutrients and ran out of steam. While later planted, green crops with yield potential were able to be left to bulk where possible. Blight was also a pressure of the season and, by the end of August, reported outbreaks had doubled from last year to over 350.

Although the ex-farm prices for the fi rst half of the 2012 season have been unprecedented, the combination of low-yielding potato crops, increased crop spraying costs and wastage from problems such as greening, soft rots and growth cracks, massively increased the average cost of producing a tonne of potatoes in 2012 potentially squeezing profi t margins.

Store loading,

too, got off to a late start, described as a slow, painful and tedious struggle against the elements. In a typical season, the majority of storage would be complete by the start of November, when day lengths reduce and ambient temperatures tumble. But, due to the continued wet conditions, fi eld activities were delayed and some growers harvest continued into December, with approximately 5% of the GB crop overwintered.

The exceptional situation in Great Britain was mirrored in Northern Europe, with the North-Western European Potato Growers (NEPG) estimating production 17% lower than last season and 10% lower than the fi ve-year average (see page 19).

Store loading,

too, got off to a

The highest rainfall for a hundred years in June, July and August

Temporary grass 21%

Cereals 52%

other arable crops 8%

Horticultural crops 2%

uncropped arable land 2%

Potatoes 2%

oilseeds 13%

Total uK Croppable Area on Agricultural Holdings as at 1 June 2012

The diagram below illustrates the network and interactions of the producers, suppliers, service providers, buyers and consumers that make up the complex GB potato supply chain.

*Pubs, restaurants, leisure, Government, Quick Service Resaurants (QSR), Contract catering/Public sector (schools, hospitals, workplace etc.)

Diagram of the Potato Supply Chain


Potato Supply Flowchart (Raw Material) 000 tonnes

Figures for June 2011 to May 2012 crop year, in thousands metric tonnes raw equivalentFigures for June 2011 to May 2012 crop year, in thousands metric tonnes raw equivalent

Home-grown supply

6,090Net human consumption from GB crop (supply side estimate)

4,303

GB crop for processing

1,802

Stocks from last year

377

Fresh imports

99

Fresh exports

182

Raw imports 99

Seed exports

112

Product exports 163

Stocks to next year

331

Stock feed & other losses

1,473

Product imports

1,421

Seed supply chain

360

GB consumptiontotal including imports

5,577

Total through processed supply chain

3,322

GB crop to fresh supply

chain

2,501

2,4183,159


Strong partnerships with purchasers result in 3/4 of the GB crop grown on pre-season contract or for a committed buyer

Seed imports

25


Planting Data

Scotland has approximately 22% of GB potato plantings

Wales has just over 1%

West Midlands has 11%

Eastern England and Yorkshire have 55% of plantings

The remainder of England and Wales has 12% of plantings

Main Production Areas

Plantings by Region 2005-2012 (ha)

GB Region 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 *2012

North east 1,261 1,302 1,282 1,372 1,231 1,135 1,122 969North West 5,660 5,416 6,041 5,835 5,752 5,522 5,075 5,053Yorks & Humber 13,736 14,147 14,269 13,652 14,064 13,857 14,540 14,062east Midlands 17,246 17,764 18,261 17,785 17,824 17,373 17,614 16,569West Midlands 16,415 16,621 17,198 16,139 15,461 15,158 16,055 14,803eastern Counties 33,245 33,441 33,418 34,347 34,253 34,392 33,785 33,029South east 3,394 3,229 3,259 3,090 3,257 3,110 3,288 3,169South West 6,117 6,129 6,726 7,131 7,207 6,379 6,663 5,877Scotland 27,109 27,515 28,588 29,213 29,573 28,399 28,883 26,875Wales 1,730 1,683 1,715 1,669 1,610 1,561 1,405 1,417

Total 125,911 127,249 130,758 130,234 130,231 126,887 128,430 121,823

Compared with last year, total planted area for GB is now estimated at 121,823ha which represents a year-on-year reduction in area of 5.1% against 2011.

All values shown are estimated total plantings in hectares. * Provisional estimate February 2013

Ware Potatoes

Seed Potatoes

Grower Panel Crop (see page 24)


Top 30 Varieties by Area in 2012 (Hectares) and Typical Availability

Planted Area by Market Sector and Region in 2012 (ha)

Planted Area by Market Sector

AP

R

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SE

P

OC

T

NO

V

DE

C

JAN

FEB

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

Maris Piper remains the dominant GB variety, accounting for 16% of planted area. It is a multipurpose variety used mainly for chipping but also popular for packing and the bag trade.

Markies, mainly used for chipping, is now the second-ranked variety, up one place from last year, accounting for 6% of planted area.

lady Rosetta, a specialist crisping variety, is now ranked 3rd, up a place since last year.

Maris Peer, a pre-pack variety mainly marketed as a salad or new potato, has risen to 4th place, having shown a 1% increase in planted area since 2011.

estima this year accounts for 5% planted area, a drop of 1% but which takes it down three places compared with last year.

Melody remains the sixth-ranked variety, used mainly in the packing trade but also the bag sector.

Hermes, a variety used mainly for crisping, is up one place, but remains accounting for 3% planted area this year.

Harmony, mainly used in the packing sector, has risen one place to 8th this year, remaining to account for 3% of planted area.

Marfona, used in the packing and bag sector is 9th, dropping two places from last year, still accounting for 3% of planted area.

Maincrop white Maincrop part coloured Maincrop red Second earlies First earlies

Market Sector england Scotland Wales Total 2012 %

Fresh bags 6,145 686 52 6,883 6

Fresh chipping 13,916 378 87 14,381 12

Pre-pack 31,567 12,375 846 44,787 37

Processing 33,961 914 226 35,101 29

Other Ware 3,848 480 51 4,378 4

Seed 4,094 12,043 156 16,293 13

Total 93,531 26,875 1,417 121,823 100%Source: www.potato.org.uk/online-toolbox/data-centre

other ware 3%

Fresh bags 6%

Seed 13% Fresh chipping 12%

Pre-pack37%

Processing29%

Rank Top Varieties 2012 GB Planted % of Availability Area (hectares) total

1 Maris Piper 19,887 16 2 Markies 7,678 6

3 Lady Rosetta 6,294 5

4 Maris Peer 6,209 5

5 Estima 6,008 5

6 Melody 4,232 3

7 Hermes 4,001 3

8 Harmony 3,839 3

9 Marfona 3,419 3

10 King Edward 3,106 3

11 Desiree 2,974 2

12 Saturna 2,802 2

13 Pentland Dell 2,572 2

14 Fontane 2,063 2

15 Cabaret 1,937 2

16 Saxon 1,896 2

17 Charlotte 1,784 1

18 Russet Burbank 1,735 1

19 Rooster 1,700 1

20 Cultra 1,477 1

21 Osprey 1,476 1

22 Innovator 1,382 1

23 Premiere 1,290 1

24 Agria 1,241 1

25 Wilja 1,229 1

26 Shepody 1,093 1

27 Accord 1,006 1

28 Vales Sovereign 944 1

29 Lady Claire 895 1

30 Sylvana 891 1

Sub-total 97,060 80 other varieties 24,763 20 Total 121,823 100


GB Areas, Production and Prices 1960-2012Year Registered Registered Total area Area per Maincrop Total Average Retail Price Avg /ton Gross growers area 000 ha* grower, ha Net Yield production price ware Index 2010 s turnover 000 ha* 000 ha tons/ha 000 tons /ton /grower1960 76,825 280.2 287.2 3.65 22.8 6,558

1961 74,933 239.6 245.6 3.20 23.3 5,728

1962 70,056 253.0 259.4 3.61 23.6 6,109

1963 66,380 264.4 271.0 3.98 22.2 6,024

1964 60,940 270.0 276.7 4.43 23.5 6,514

1965 57,725 262.7 269.2 4.55 26.2 7,065

1966 54,700 237.1 243.0 4.33 25.1 6,104

1967 50,310 248.1 254.3 4.93 26.2 6,674

1968 48,239 246.2 252.4 5.10 25.4 6,402

1969 45,130 217.2 222.6 4.81 26.1 5,820

1970 43,346 238.6 244.6 5.51 28.9 7,076 14.27 19 172.18 28,107

1971 42,756 225.7 231.4 5.28 30.3 7,021 14.82 20 163.45 26,840

1972 40,756 208.5 213.7 5.11 29.1 6,214 19.08 22 196.48 29,957

1973 38,753 196.0 200.9 5.06 32.4 6,517 18.76 24 176.91 29,751

1974 36,872 189.4 194.1 5.14 33.3 6,469 25.40 28 206.49 36,227

1975 35,478 180.2 184.7 5.08 23.2 4,287 103.95 34 680.40 82,217

1976 34,938 194.9 199.8 5.58 22.2 4,429 133.46 40 749.83 95,055

1977 35,286 199.4 204.3 5.65 29.9 6,108 43.19 46 209.55 36,273

1978 33,387 183.9 188.5 5.51 36.7 6,917 43.99 50 197.07 40,829

1979 32,149 171.4 175.7 5.33 34.6 6,075 58.82 57 232.37 43,910

1980 30,225 174.0 178.3 5.76 37.2 6,631 44.43 67 148.75 32,634

1981 28,760 162.4 166.5 5.65 34.8 5,794 83.51 75 249.86 50,336

1982 27,498 161.3 165.3 5.86 39.6 6,539 53.40 81 147.12 34,984

1983 26,499 165.2 169.3 6.23 32.6 5,517 125.75 85 331.21 68,956

1984 25,480 167.4 171.6 6.57 40.6 6,965 49.26 89 123.57 33,777

1985 24,948 162.7 166.8 6.52 39.4 6,567 57.02 95 134.81 35,485

1986 22,565 150.1 153.8 6.65 39.6 6,087 86.52 98 197.83 53,364

1987 21,439 151.1 154.9 7.05 41.0 6,358 71.85 102 157.66 46,756

1988 20,155 155.1 158.9 7.69 41.5 6,590 62.55 107 131.20 42,899

1989 19,266 151.8 155.6 7.88 38.4 5,973 99.09 115 192.00 59,525

1990 18,331 154.1 157.9 8.40 39.3 6,198 78.20 127 138.01 46,662

1991 17,234 154.4 158.2 8.96 38.1 6,032 85.70 134 142.90 50,015

1992 16,512 155.0 158.9 9.39 47.1 7,481 56.69 139 91.00 41,228

1993 16,308 148.2 151.9 9.08 44.8 6,808 79.52 141 126.10 52,644

1994 14,900 141.0 144.5 9.46 43.3 6,263 156.86 145 242.39 101,883

1995 14,022 146.3 150.0 10.44 40.8 6,120 137.12 150 204.67 89,326

1996 13,395 147.1 150.8 10.98 46.0 6,941 66.46 153 97.32 50,425

1997 9,772 137.1 146.4 14.03 46.8 6,853 76.29 158 108.31 75,955

1998 7,530 134.6 142.8 17.88 43.2 6,171 147.16 163 201.99 165,545

1999 7,331 145.5 155.6 19.85 44.0 6,843 67.35 165 91.05 84,988

2000 6,143 133.9 146.2 21.80 41.0 5,993 122.00 170 160.18 156,273

2001 5,606 131.6 146.4 23.47 43.8 6,410 111.06 173 143.29 163,839

2002 4,804 128.4 138.7 26.73 48.2 6,683 69.30 176 87.94 122,336

2003 3,385 115.2 124.8 34.01 46.6 5,812 128.32 181 158.26 272,055

2004 3,184 119.3 130.9 37.45 45.9 6,009 94.57 187 113.26 214,216

2005 3,076 116.8 125.9 37.99 46.1 5,805 107.69 192 125.42 236,907

2006 2,925 119.7 127.2 40.89 43.4 5,528 134.17 198 151.44 286,519

2007 2,843 124.6 130.8 43.79 41.4 5,409 142.71 207 154.45 294,375

2008 2,730 124.1 130.2 45.47 45.7 5,946 124.92 215 130.04 283,537

2009 2,620 124.2 130.2 47.32 47.5 6,192 99.23 214 103.83 246,132

2010 2,484 120.5 126.9 48.80 46.1 5,849 161.67 224 161.67 383,614

2011 2,412 121.7 128.4 50.29 47.4 6,090 120.12 235 114.20 287,518

2012 2,306 ** 115.4 121.8 ** 50.07 ** 37.4** 4,561**

* Total plantings were not estimated prior to 1996. ** 2012 data are provisional estimates as at 23 November 2012

Annual Balance Sheet of Potato Supplies and Disposals 1990-2011 Quantities in thousands metric tonnes. Seasons from 1st June of year shown to 31st May of following year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

SuPPlIeS Home Cropfrom previous season 286 293 409 421 359 295 360 281 327 347 224 192 372 302 360 435 415 354 206 372 368 377from current crop 6,203 6,049 7,500 6,820 6,270 6,124 6,956 6,869 6,180 6,854 5,998 6,417 6,694 5,819 6,009 5,805 5,528 5,409 5,946 6,192 5,849 6,090Imports

Fresh 331 363 368 364 402 475 336 333 372 273 668 418 357 335 373 300 316 420 325 224 250 198Processed* 536 561 599 753 686 641 708 920 1,028 1,121 1,084 1,274 1,418 1,368 1,335 1,244 1,295 1,141 1,309 1,274 1,341 1,421Seed 44 46 24 35 55 35 22 17 21 19 37 37 28 40 21 30 13 14 17 18 25 25

Total 7,400 7,313 8,899 8,393 7,771 7,570 8,383 8,420 7,929 8,613 8,011 8,338 8,870 7,864 8,098 7,814 7,566 7,338 7,804 8,081 7,832 8,111

DISPoSAlSHuman Consumption 5,710 5,561 6,008 6,404 6,032 5,801 6,134 6,140 5,847 6,450 6,391 6,255 6,691 5,615 6,076 5,530 5,557 5,492 5,514 5,399 5,244 5,577exports

Fresh 66 102 87 118 222 108 147 160 160 150 91 122 223 81 101 133 188 131 139 175 278 182Processed* 48 72 75 72 79 70 88 122 111 115 123 149 165 206 216 174 355 147 166 151 186 163Seed 52 33 38 27 42 52 59 67 70 71 69 71 81 77 80 85 82 91 95 89 109 112

Seed for next crop 495 503 473 443 451 480 421 412 425 409 398 393 348 393 372 372 321 324 324 311 285 273Intervention 32 0 869 44 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Closing stocks 293 409 421 359 295 360 281 327 347 224 192 372 302 360 360 415 354 206 372 368 377 331Balancing figure. 703 633 928 926 650 698 1,253 1,192 969 1,194 748 977 1,061 1,131 893 1,105 710 947 1,193 1,588 1,354 1,473Total 7,400 7,313 8,899 8,393 7,771 7,570 8,383 8,420 7,929 8,613 8,011 8,338 8,870 7,864 8,098 7,814 7,566 7,338 7,804 8,081 7,832 8,111

* Raw equivalent, conversion factors: Canned 1:1, Crisped 4:1, Dehydrated 6.2:1, Frozen 1.9:1. Balancing figure includes stockfeed and other non-human consumption, metabolic losses, etc.

Consumption and Processing of Potatoes in GB 1990-2011Quantities in thousands metric tonnes. Seasons from 1st June of year shown to 31st May of following year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

ReTAIl PoTATo & PoTATo PRoDuCTSFresh 2,843 2,693 2,577 2,500 2,388 2,374 2,386 2,149 2,177 2,003 1,886 1,857 1,807 1,738 1,798 1,816 1,779 1,871 1,927 1,925 1,891 1,867 Canned/Other 15 21 22 24 21 24 23 22 19 30 33 33 34 34 32 30 27 25 22 20 18 18 Dehydrated 25 26 37 22 21 31 19 37 44 43 45 54 60 77 94 99 106 43 120 109 101 96 Crisped 389 427 506 508 434 578 645 587 518 476 481 508 538 559 537 547 536 569 584 606 624 621 Frozen or Chilled 395 463 509 564 457 560 672 696 725 806 838 894 899 928 938 903 868 911 944 953 960 967 ToTAl ReTAIl 3,667 3,630 3,650 3,618 3,321 3,567 3,745 3,491 3,482 3,357 3,284 3,346 3,338 3,336 3,400 3,396 3,317 3,419 3,597 3,613 3,594 3,569

NoN-ReTAIl (FooD SeRVICe, INGReDIeNTS & BY-PRoDuCTS)Raw 956 855 1,099 1,554 1,257 1,014 1,221 1,316 845 1,457 1,647 1,292 1,550 739 1,150 732 1,016 802 592 559 245 551 Canned/Dehydrated/Other 300 297 314 263 391 340 331 224 236 367 203 214 302 265 216 216 118 220 133 232 158 229 Crisped 207 150 128 177 200 144 107 137 221 218 194 255 344 233 302 209 211 148 155 107 140 131 Frozen or Chilled 580 629 818 793 862 736 730 972 1,062 1,050 1,062 1,148 1,037 1,042 1,008 978 895 903 1,037 888 1,106 1,096 ToTAl FooD SeRVICe 2,043 1,931 2,358 2,786 2,711 2,234 2,389 2,649 2,364 3,093 3,106 2,909 3,233 2,279 2,676 2,134 2,240 2,073 1,917 1,786 1,650 2,008ToTAl uSAGe 5,710 5,561 6,008 6,404 6,032 5,801 6,134 6,140 5,847 6,450 6,391 6,255 6,571 5,615 6,076 5,530 5,557 5,492 5,514 5,399 5,244 5,577

GB population (million) 55.8 55.8 55.9 56.0 56.2 56.3 56.5 56.6 56.8 57.0 57.2 57.4 57.6 57.8 58.1 58.5 58.8 59.2 59.6 60.0 60.4 60.8 PeR CAPITA CoNSuMPTIoN kg/head/year:Fresh 68.0 63.5 65.7 72.3 64.8 60.1 63.8 61.2 53.2 60.7 61.8 54.8 58.3 42.8 50.7 43.5 47.5 45.1 42.3 41.4 35.3 39.7Processed 34.2 36.1 41.7 41.9 42.5 42.8 44.7 47.2 49.7 52.5 49.9 54.1 55.8 54.2 53.8 51.0 46.9 47.6 50.2 48.6 51.4 51.9Total 102.3 99.6 107.4 114.2 107.3 102.9 108.6 108.4 102.9 113.2 111.7 108.9 114.0 97.1 104.5 94.5 94.4 92.7 92.5 90.0 86.7 91.7ReTAIl AND NoN-ReTAIl 000 tonnesRetail 3,667 3,630 3,650 3,618 3,321 3,567 3,745 3,491 3,482 3,357 3,284 3,346 3,338 3,336 3,400 3,396 3,317 3,419 3,597 3,613 3,594 3,569Non-Retail 2,043 1,931 2,358 2,786 2,711 2,234 2,389 2,649 2,364 3,093 3,106 2,909 3,233 2,279 2,676 2,134 2,240 2,073 1,917 1,786 1,650 2,008Total 5,710 5,561 6,008 6,404 6,032 5,801 6,134 6,140 5,847 6,450 6,391 6,255 6,571 5,615 6,076 5,530 5,557 5,492 5,514 5,399 5,244 5,577

Raw to processed weight conversion ratios are: Canned 1:1, Crisped 4:1, Dehydrated 6.2:1, Frozen 1.9:1.



1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

IMPORTS OF PROCESSED PRODUCTSCanned/Dehydrate/Other 224 231 231 185 307 263 227 226 253 333 188 226 309 297 274 281 338 297 293 308 314 333Crisped 9 9 9 10 9 61 80 40 37 41 44 138 233 156 116 92 84 74 61 51 60 64Frozen or Chilled 328 340 385 461 388 336 596 654 739 747 853 909 876 914 944 871 872 770 956 915 967 1024Total 561 580 625 656 704 660 903 920 1,028 1,121 1,084 1,274 1,418 1,368 1,335 1,244 1,295 1,141 1,309 1,274 1,341 1,421

EXPORTS OF PROCESSED PRODUCTSCanned/Dehydrate/Other 25 39 20 20 33 37 31 32 31 38 47 57 53 89 69 52 102 26 30 33 76 67Crisped 2 3 3 3 3 3 6 14 9 10 15 17 23 25 30 33 39 48 58 59 53 47Frozen or Chilled 32 32 32 30 42 36 52 78 78 72 61 76 89 92 117 89 214 73 78 60 57 50Total 59 74 55 53 79 76 89 124 117 121 123 149 165 206 216 174 355 147 166 151 186 163

Free Market Weekly Average Price Index 2000-2011

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

RAW TONNAGE USED FOR:Canned/Dehydrate/Other 152 163 172 153 172 181 188 97 85 157 148 140 140 168 138 117 15 18 13 86 39 77Crisped 606 594 646 697 646 685 701 719 732 684 666 664 671 661 752 697 702 691 737 720 757 736Frozen or Chilled 706 816 1,011 964 1,011 1,033 1,102 1,139 1,177 1,235 1,163 1,267 1,150 1,146 1,120 1,098 1,105 1,116 1,103 986 1,156 1,089TOTAL RAW TONNAGE 1,464 1,573 1,829 1,814 1,829 1,899 1,991 1,955 1,994 2,076 1,977 2,070 1,961 1,975 2,009 1,912 1,821 1,825 1,852 1,792 1,952 1,902

SOURCE:Home Grown 1298 1391 1645 1632 1628 1661 1823 1788 1808 1939 1643 1861 1782 1808 1823 1762 1663 1615 1690 1680 1827 1803Imported as raw potatoes 166 182 184 182 201 238 168 167 186 136 334 209 179 168 187 150 158 210 162 112 125 99

TOTAL GB PRODN 6,203 6,049 7,500 6,820 6,270 6,124 6,956 6,869 6,180 6,854 5,998 6,417 6,694 5,819 6,009 5,805 5,528 5,409 5,946 6,192 5,849 6,090% used for processing 21% 23% 22% 24% 26% 27% 26% 26% 29% 28% 27% 29% 27% 31% 30% 30% 30% 30% 28% 27% 31% 30%

During the season, the Weekly Average Price (WAPS) shows typical patterns, depending on the level of supply

From July to end-October, prices usually decline as supply increases. If harvesting progresses slowly, prices from summer through to early September can remain steady

Once lifting is complete, prices from storage will gradually increase over the season unless there is oversupply, in which case they remain relatively flat

Post-Christmas, there is a period of weaker demand, followed by a rally in prices from March onwards

As the new crop becomes available from May, old crop prices may drop sharply, but if the new crop is late, they may remain strong into June and continue very strongly into the new season

With the exceptional growing and harvesting season and low production levels, prices for the first half of the year have held strong. Data will be provided for the 2012 season in the next report once the season is complete

Imports and Exports of Processed Potatoes 1990-2011Quantities in thousands metric tonnes. Seasons from 1st June of year shown to 31st May of following year

Tonnage of Potatoes Used for Processing in GB 1990-2011Quantities in thousands metric tonnes. Seasons from 1st June of year shown to 31st May of following year

01-J

ul

01-A

ug

01-S

ep

01-O

ct

01-N

ov

01-D

ec

01-J

an

01-F

eb

01-M

ar

01-A

pr

01-M

ay

01-J

un

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

Pri

ce

/to

nn

e


Trends in Planted Area and Number of Growers 1960-2012

Yield per ha and Total Production 1960-2012

Since 1960, planted area has shown a steady declining trend, falling by 58% in the last 51 years

The number of growers since 1960 has illustrated a much more rapid decline and is now only 3% of the 1960 fi gure

In spite of the 58% drop in planted area since 1960, production has remained at around 6 million tonnes as yields have risen, driven mainly by improved crop protection, fertiliser regimes, varieties and irrigation

The last decade has seen a levelling-off in this trend of increasing yield. Annual fl uctuations in yield and production are mainly due to weather, as in the 2012 crop year (see introduction page 1)

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

300

250

200

150

100

50

Reg

iste

red

pla

nte

d a

rea

(00

0s h

a)

Nu

mb

er o

f re

gis

tere

d g

row

ers

Planted area 000 ha

Number of growers

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

60

50

40

30

20

10

Pro

du

ctio

n (

000

to

nn

es)

Har

vest

ed y

ield

(to

nn

es/h

a)

Production 000 tonnes

Yield per ha

Yield trend

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010


Planted Area per Grower, ha 1970-2011

Volume Traded by Purchaser Type 1997-2011

50

40

30

20

10

0

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Averageareaplantedpergrowerhasrisenfrom5.5to51.4hasince1970,anincreasewhichhasbeenacceleratinginthelast20years

Thestructureofpurchaseshasnotchangedsince2001

80%ofthetonnagetradedisby20%ofthelargestpurchasingbusinesses

95%ofthetonnagetradedisby60%ofthelargestpurchasingbusinesses.Theremaining5%ispurchasedby40%ofthesmallestpurchasingbusinesses

Percentage of Tonnage Traded by percentage of large to small purchasers 2001-2011

Other

Peelers

Processors

Packers

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

% t

on

nag

e tr

aded

95%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2001

2006

2011

% of purchasers (largesttosmallest)

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

Vo

lum

e tr

aded

(0

00 t

on

nes

)

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Crop year

Consolidation of the GB Industry


Number of Potato Growers by Size Band in Hectares (>3ha)

3-9ha

10-29ha

30-99ha

100-299ha

300+ha

Total

5,629

4,218

2,925

2,412

1997 2001 2006 2011

Percentage of Area Grown by Size Band in Hectares (>3ha)

50

40

30

20

10

00

10

20

30

40

503-9ha

10-29ha

30-99ha

100-299ha

300+ha

1997 2001 2006 2011

Although annual GB production is relatively stable, it is produced from fewer hectares and far fewer growers. The charts below clearly show how this has changed in the 14 years from 1997 to the last complete season in 2011.

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Num

ber

of g

row

ers

Are

a %

How grower numbers have changed

Since 1997, the following changes have taken place:

The total number of registered potato producers (>3ha) has declined by 57% from 5,629 to 2,412

In 1997, 76% of the grower base planted under 30 hectares this has fallen by 21% and accounted for 55% in 2011

In 1997, only 3% of the grower base planted 100 hectares or more of potatoes. In 2011, this had risen to 13%, with nearly 2% of the growers planting over 300 hectares

How the area has changed within the size bands

Since 1997, the following changes have taken place:

In 1997, the area grown by producers from 3-9 hectares was 10%, this has reduced to 3% in 2011

Around 35% of the area was from producers under 30 hectares. In 2011, this was 15%

In 2011, over 50% of the potato area was produced by growers over 100 hectares, a rise of 28% in 14 years

In Summary:The average area per grower has increased from 14 hectares in 1997 to just over 50 hectares in 2011. Today, 13% of the total grower base plant 100 hectares of potatoes or more and this now equates to 50% of the total planted area.

Consolidation of the GB Industry | 13

HeCTAReS CleAReDDates 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012Up to 28 Apr 19 15 3229 Apr - 05 May 20 12 43 1206 May - 12 May 32 34 85 913 May - 19 May 65 90 96 4920 May - 26 May 92 134 149 14127 May - 02 Jun 181 172 157 20503 Jun - 09 Jun 256 288 242 13210 Jun - 16 Jun 343 234 328 27117 Jun - 23 Jun 513 249 565 29224 Jun - 30 Jun 767 621 825 42301 Jul - 07 Jul 916 1,148 1,061 44208 Jul - 14 Jul 1,302 1,746 1,332 60715 Jul - 21 Jul 1,314 1,835 1,642 82822 Jul - 28 Jul 1,231 1,895 1,783 1,367Total to 28 Jul 7,052 8,457 8,324 4,810

YIelD (tonnes/ha)Dates 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012Up to 28 Apr 7.7 9.6 11.129 Apr - 05 May 12.6 7.6 12.2 13.406 May - 12 May 15.4 10.1 14.2 1413 May - 19 May 16.9 13 16.5 15.720 May - 26 May 19.4 14.2 17.5 16.727 May - 02 Jun 20.2 14.5 18.9 17.103 Jun - 09 Jun 21.2 15.2 19.3 17.710 Jun - 16 Jun 21.6 16.8 22.3 18.217 Jun - 23 Jun 27.1 19.8 28.1 19.324 Jun - 30 Jun 26.9 22.9 31.7 19.901 Jul - 07 Jul 32.1 26.7 35.2 23.508 Jul - 14 Jul 35.6 29.4 37.2 25.515 Jul - 21 Jul 39.4 34.4 40.7 29.422 Jul - 28 Jul 38.8 36 41.3 32.7Total to 28 Jul 32.6 29.2 34.9 25.7

ToNNeS MoVeDDates 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012Up to 28 Apr 147 148 35529 Apr - 05 May 249 90 529 16006 May - 12 May 500 342 1,211 13013 May - 19 May 1,096 1,168 1,580 77520 May - 26 May 1,794 1,907 2,603 2,35327 May - 02 Jun 3,661 2,493 2,972 3,50303 Jun - 09 Jun 5,439 4,366 4,673 2,33110 Jun - 16 Jun 7,415 3,945 7,313 4,93017 Jun - 23 Jun 13,885 4,930 15,890 5,63724 Jun - 30 Jun 20,640 14,185 26,140 8,42501 Jul - 07 Jul 29,415 30,615 37,405 10,36508 Jul - 14 Jul 46,290 51,405 49,505 15,47015 Jul - 21 Jul 51,720 63,075 66,840 24,30522 Jul - 28 Jul 47,770 68,230 73,590 44,735Total to 28 Jul 230,021 246,751 290,399 123,474

GRoSS ReTuRN, /haDates 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012Up to 28 Apr 9,107 15,237 15,45929 Apr - 05 May 9,387 13,598 11,064 9,74506 May - 12 May 7,623 12,737 8,684 8,45913 May - 19 May 7,375 11,310 7,592 6,86620 May - 26 May 6,807 11,792 6,172 8,46027 May - 02 Jun 5,603 12,022 5,685 8,46203 Jun - 09 Jun 5,755 10,994 5,261 9,03310 Jun - 16 Jun 5,454 7,847 5,734 8,82017 Jun - 23 Jun 5,358 6,125 6,117 8,90824 Jun - 30 Jun 4,510 5,425 5,799 7,90401 Jul - 07 Jul 4,523 5,181 5,441 7,45908 Jul - 14 Jul 4,754 5,350 5,292 7,26915 Jul - 21 Jul 4,738 6,575 5,405 7,82322 Jul - 28 Jul 4,576 6,790 5,254 7,688Total to 28 Jul 4,888 6,547 5,581 7,937

VAlue 000sDates 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012Up to 28 Apr 173 235 49629 Apr - 05 May 186 161 479 11706 May - 12 May 248 433 739 7913 May - 19 May 478 1,013 726 33920 May - 26 May 629 1,585 919 1,19527 May - 02 Jun 1,013 2,063 893 1,73203 Jun - 09 Jun 1,475 3,164 1,274 1,19110 Jun - 16 Jun 1,873 1,838 1,880 2,38717 Jun - 23 Jun 2,747 1,528 3,456 2,60424 Jun - 30 Jun 3,459 3,366 4,785 3,34701 Jul - 07 Jul 4,145 5,946 5,773 3,29408 Jul - 14 Jul 6,188 9,343 7,051 4,40915 Jul - 21 Jul 6,227 12,065 8,876 6,47422 Jul - 28 Jul 5,635 12,867 9,369 10,509Total to 28 Jul 34,474 55,373 46,456 38,174

AVeRAGe PRICe (/ton)Dates 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012Up to 28 Apr 1,175.85 1,586.49 1,398.3129 Apr - 05 May 747.59 1,788.89 905.02 729.6906 May - 12 May 495.34 1,266.67 610.1 603.8513 May - 19 May 436.09 866.93 459.43 437.7420 May - 26 May 350.46 831.55 353.11 507.9227 May - 02 Jun 276.74 827.68 300.4 494.5503 Jun - 09 Jun 271.13 724.73 272.67 510.9910 Jun - 16 Jun 252.63 465.8 257.02 484.2517 Jun - 23 Jun 197.81 309.92 217.51 461.8924 Jun - 30 Jun 167.59 237.32 183.07 397.2601 Jul - 07 Jul 140.93 194.22 154.35 317.8108 Jul - 14 Jul 133.67 181.76 142.44 285.0215 Jul - 21 Jul 120.4 191.28 132.8 266.3522 Jul - 28 Jul 117.95 188.58 127.32 234.92Total to 28 Jul 149.88 224.41 159.97 309.16

early Crop Development in Great Britain 2009-2012

All values are indicative estimates based on limited sample sizes, please treat with caution.


Fresh potatoes 28%1,094,708

Crisps 19%748,634

Savoury snacks 17%679,766

Ambient Rice and Savoury Noodles 10%382,459

Frozen Chips 8%336,585

Dry pasta 5%214,739

Frozen potato products 5%199,399

Chilled potatoes 4%143,919

Fresh pasta 3%112,770

Chilled rice 0.6%21,870

Instant mashed potato 0.4% 14,293

Canned potatoes 0.3% 11,178

VAlue 2009

Fresh potatoes 24%1,068,572

Crisps 20%899,477



Frozen Chips 9%397,934

Dry pasta 5%236,922



Fresh pasta 3%125,153

Chilled rice 0.6%27,114

Instant mashed potato 0.3% 13,590


VAlue 2012

Fresh potatoes 61%1,707,998Frozen Chips 12%

322,370Ambient Rice and Savoury Noodles 5%148,623

Dry pasta 5%145,212


Crisps 4%126,433



Fresh pasta 1% 30,283


Chilled rice 0.2% 5,194

Instant Mashed Potato 0.2% 4,867

VoluMe 2009

Fresh potatoes 58%1,639,995Frozen Chips 12%

334,993


Dry pasta 6%153,997


Crisps 5%134,682



Fresh pasta 1% 31,743


Chilled rice 0.2% 5,828

Instant Mashed Potato 0.1% 4,221

VoluMe 2012

% PoTATo CoNSuMPTIoN 200912 m/e August 2009

Boiled 34.2%

HM Roast9.7%

Baked 11.6%

Frozen chips 16.7%

Crisps 12.2%

other frozen 4.8%

HM chips 5.4%

Frozen roast 2%

other fresh 3.5%

% PoTATo CoNSuMPTIoN 201212 m/e August 2012

Boiled 32.7%

HM Roast9.6%

Baked 12.3%

Frozen chips 17.4%

Crisps 13.1%

other frozen 5.5%

HM chips 4.5%

Frozen roast 1.9%

other fresh 3.0%

Size and Share of the Carbohydrates Market 2009/2012 (Retail Data)

Breakdown of Total In-home Potato Meal occasions


Total Per Capita Consumption in GB 1988-2011

Retail and other Consumption in GB 1988-2011

Consumption by Product Groups 1988-2011

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n, r

aw e

qu

iv. (

kg/h

ead/

year

)

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Crop year June to May

% f

resh

70%

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n, r

aw e

qu

iv. (

000

ton

nes)

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


% f

resh

90%

85%

80%

75%

70%

65%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (%

raw

equ

ival

ent)

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


Total

3-yr average

Fresh

Processed

Fresh %

Total Consumption

Non-Retail

Retail

3-yr moving avg.

GB supply %

Retail, Fresh

Non-Retail, Raw

Frozen, Chilled

Crisped

Canned, dehydrate

longer-term Trends


Change in production correlates very well with change in price, accounting for 87% of variation seen. The data shown is from 1970 onwards, with data from 1996 (after price stabilisation and quotas ended) in dark blue

In general, a 1% change in production leads to a 5% change in price, though there are limits to very low prices (production more than 15% higher than last year). However, low production can drive very high prices, with price doubling if supply is 30% below the previous year

Forecasting Price Change from Production

Average price has clearly in uenced planting decisions since quotas ended in 1996. The data shows that 75% of the variation in planted area from season to season depends on price in the previous season. 2011 is an example: Average price was 120/t. The model (red line) predicts a 3.5% fall in plantings at this level

The actual drop in plantings for 2012 was around 5%. Taken with the effect of production on price, this drives the cyclic nature of the production-price relationship. Low prices lead to reduced plantings, hence lower production and higher prices, which in turn leads to a subsequent increase in plantings

Price In uence on Planted Area

We have the capacity to undertake modelling work which includes price forecasting from production and how weather patterns affect yield.

All analysis presented is based on a number of simplifying assumptions that are likely to mean that trends may not refl ect reality in a particular year. Hence all analysis presented should be viewed only in this context.

300%

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

-100%

Ch

ang

e in

pri

ce f

rom

last

sea

son

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

Ch

ang

e in

pla

nte

d a

rea

the

nex

t se

aso

n

1971-2011

1996-2011

Trend 1971-2011

Trend 1996-2011

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Change in production from last season

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210

Average price in year shown (/t)

Plot Area

1998

y = 0.1688Ln(x) - 0.8322

2010

20032006

2007

2001

2008

2005

2011

20041997

2009

1996

1999

2002

2000

R2=87%

R2=0.7494

longer-term Trends | 17

1000

1500

2000

1,750

1,500

1,250

1,000

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Annual Sunshine Hours 1960-2011

50

48

46

44

42

40

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Mai

ncr

op

net

yie

ld, t

on

s/h

a

Sea

son

al r

ain

fall,

mm

Yield and Seasonal Rainfall 1992-2011

0

2

4

6

8

10

GB average yields since 1992 have uctuated at around 44.8t/ha

Moderate summer rainfall improves yield, up to a point, but extreme summer rainfall contributes to

a reduction in yield, as illustrated in 2012, a year when summer rainfall exceeded levels seen in a hundred years and yields fell to their lowest level since 1976

Annual hours of sunshine in 2012 fell signi cantly to below 1450 hours, a level which had not been seen since 2002. The hours of sunshine in spring and summer dropped sharply compared with 2011 and was the dullest summer since 1987

In the three years previous, annual hours of sunshine in England and Wales had remained at similar levels at around 1560 hours

The overall general trend since 1960 has been one of increasing annual sunshine

Su

nsh

ine

(ho

urs

)

longer-term Trends | 18

20

30

40

50 50

45

40

35

30

25

20

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

5

10

15

20

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Mean Temperature 1960-2012Te

mpe

ratu

re O

C

Yiel

d (t

onne

s/ha

)

In 2012, mean annual temperature dropped by c.1OC, mainly due to the colder autumn months

The general trend of temperature since 1960 is increasing:

Pros: longer growing season and higher yield potential

Cons: warmer winter favours pest and disease development

Average yields doubled from 1960 to 1990, but since the rate of increase has been more gradual

Annual variations in yield are signi cantly in uenced by the weather during the growing season

Jun-Aug

Annual mean

March-May

Weather data for England and Wales taken from the Met Offi ce website.

GB Yields 1960-2011, tonnes/ha

Th

e G

B P

ota

to In

du

stry

The european Market


France remains the largest EU exporter of fresh potato products and the Netherlands continues to consolidate its position as the largest exporter of processed potato products. GB is an important export market for both.

In production and capacity terms, Belgium is the fastest growing European potato producing country having invested significantly in building its capability in recent years. This has resulted in more aggressive marketing of its processed potato products not only to GB and the rest of Europe but increasingly to worldwide markets.

The GB market is increasingly influenced by EU potato producer activities and supply chain structure. Currency fluctuations and a wide variation in annual market prices, due to external factors - such as weather conditions and pest and disease pressures - leave the GB market sensitive to imported European product, dependent on price, quality and variety.

NePG production estimate

The challenges of the 2012 GB growing and harvest season (see Introduction page 1) have been mirrored in Northern Europe with production in the Netherlands

and Belgium notably less than their domestic requirement this season.

The North-Western European Potato Growers (NEPG) production estimate for the 5 main potato producing countries (Belgium, Germany, France, The Netherlands and GB) of 22.309 million tonnes (excluding seed and starch), is 16.7% lower than last year, 10% below the five-year average and almost as low as the 2006 season.

The impacts of increased trade liberalisation on the EU and the GB potato market have been significant.

eu 5 Consumption and Processing Potatoes (incl. earlies, excl. seed and starch)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Change vs. last seasonPRoDuCTIoN (000 ToNNeS)

Belgium 2,725 2,529 3,126 2,874 3,269 3,602 4,340 3,366 -22.4%

Germany 8,105 6,918 8,024 7,535 7,636 7,125 7,881 7,072 -10.3%

France 4,450 4,372 4,598 4,600 4,755 4,681 5,481 4,688 -14.5%

The Netherlands 3,300 3,105 3,609 3,631 3,653 3,605 3,877 3,220 -16.9%

Great Britain 5,305 5,157 4,805 5,359 5,501 5,199 5,195 3,963 -23.7%

Total 23,885 22,082 24,162 23,999 24,813 24,211 26,774 22,309 Annual Variation - -7.6% 9.4% -0.7% 3.4% -2.4% 10.6% -16.7%

AReA (HeCTAReS)

Belgium 62,501 64,685 65,402 61,405 70,915 78,641 79,483 73,650 -7.3%

Germany 169,216 167,107 171,096 165,251 168,557 165,687 172,821 157,500 -8.9%

France 104,700 104,100 104,500 104,300 105,900 109,364 113,480 113,240 -0.2%

The Netherlands 66,000 69,000 72,464 69,300 70,520 72,971 72,607 67,086 -7.6%

Great Britain 110,987 112,358 113,323 113,295 112,716 110,611 109,603 104,013 -5.1%

Total 513,404 517,250 526,785 513,551 528,608 537,274 547,994 515,489 Annual Variation - 0.7% 1.8% -2.5% 2.9% 1.6% 2.0% -5.9%

YIelD (T/HA)

Belgium 43.6 39.1 47.8 46.8 46.1 45.8 54.6 44.7 -16.3%

Germany 47.9 41.4 46.9 45.6 45.3 43.0 45.6 44.9 -1.5%

France 42.5 42.0 44.0 44.1 44.9 42.8 48.3 41.4 -14.3%

The Netherlands 50.0 45.0 49.8 52.4 51.8 49.4 53.4 48.0 -10.1%

Great Britain 47.8 45.9 42.4 47.3 48.8 47.0 47.4 38.1 -19.6%

Total 46.5 42.7 45.9 46.7 46.9 45.1 48.9 43.4 Annual Variation - -8.2% 7.4% 1.9% 0.4% -4.0% 8.4% -11.4%

Source: NEPG, November 2012

World Production


Commodity Production 1 Sugar cane 1,711,087,173 2 Maize 840,308,214 3 Rice, paddy 696,324,394 4 Wheat 653,654,525 5 Cow milk, whole, fresh 600,838,992 6 Potatoes 324,420,782 7 Soybeans 264,991,580 8 Vegetables fresh 257,065,378 9 Cassava 230,265,639 10 Sugar beet 228,453,678 11 Tomatoes 151,699,405 12 Barley 123,544,729 13 Indigenous Pig meat 109,100,198 14 Sweet potatoes 107,639,494 15 Bananas 102,028,171 16 Watermelons 99,161,274 17 Buffalo milk, whole, fresh 92,473,371 18 Indigenous Chicken meat 85,860,953 19 Onions, dry 78,534,876 20 Apples 69,511,975

Commodity Production

World Production by Commodity 2010(million tons)

Country Production 1 China 74,799,084 2 India 36,577,300 3 Russian Federation 21,140,500 4 Ukraine 18,705,000 5 United States of America 18,337,500 6 Germany 10,201,900 7 Poland 8,765,960 8 Bangladesh 7,930,000 9 Belarus 7,831,110 10 France 7,216,210 11 Netherlands 6,843,530 12 Great Britain 5,849,000* 13 Turkey 4,548,090 14 Canada 4,421,770 15 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 4,054,490 16 Peru 3,814,370 17 Malawi 3,673,540 18 Egypt 3,643,220 19 Brazil 3,547,510 20 Belgium 3,455,800

Country Production

World Top PotatoProducers 2010(million tons)

Potato ConsumptionWorld Top 20(kg/capita/year) 2009 raw equivalent

Country 20091 Belarus 182.82 Ukraine 133.43 Poland 116.94 Kazakhstan 114.75 Russian Federation 1146 Ireland 110.87 Malawi 108.38 Estonia 107.49 Kyrgyzstan 107.210 Latvia 104.411 Rwanda 103.112 Lebanon 101.213 Lithuania 98.114 Romania 95.815 Netherlands 93.516 Great Britain 90.0*17 Azerbaijan 79.318 Peru 79.219 Bosnia and Herzegovina 77.620 Belgium 76.2

* Potato Council Data (see page 8)

* Potato Council Data (see page 8)

Th

e G

B P

ota

to In

du

stry

Potato Council Market Information Committee

Appendix 1 | 21

Market Intelligence data and deliveries are regularly peer reviewed via the Potato Council Market Information Committee. The committee is made up of potato growers, packers, processors, industry bodies, government and seed suppliers to ensure the information provided continues to meet current industry needs. The committee also recommends new areas of focus as the potato industry develops.

Potato Council Market Information Committee 2012/13:

Grower MembersRichard Ash KentColin Bradley LancashireJohn Davison StaffordshireRalph Day LincolnshireRobert loxton NorfolkArnold Peacock CambridgeshireAndrew Shaw CheshireRichard Solari Shropshire

Purchaser MembersRobert Baird Greenvale AP LtdRichard Clark Branston LimitedMartin Cockerill R S Cockerill (York) LtdGraham Finn McCain Foods (GB) LtdStephen uttridge Higgins Agriculture Ltd

Industry Stakeholderslee Abbey National Farmers Union (NFU)Richard Harris oBe Director General of the Potato Processors AssociationKathleen Kelliher DefraJohn Speirs Scottish GovernmentNick Tapp (Committee Chairman and Potato Council Board Member) Bidwells

Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) MembersKen Boyns AHDB Market Intelligence DirectorRob Clayton Potato Council DirectorHannah Goodwin AHDB Market Intelligence Analyst

Potato Council Data Collection

Appendix 2 | 22

How Market Intelligence surveys and publications fit into the potato calendar:

*AHDB/Potato Council Market Intelligence outputs

Field selection and soil testing

*Grower panel survey

*Annual trends (previous season)

Seed delivery and chitting

Store loading

Tuber bulking (field quality & size testing)

*Planting survey

*Provisional supply estimate

*Area by variety

*Levy return data

*Grower panel survey

*Defra contract

*Maincrop lifting survey

*Early crop reporting

*Supply ex-store

*1st planting estimate

*Stocks and utilisation

Supply from the field

Appendix 3 | 23

AHDB Potato Market Intelligence provides a range of information services to assist producers and merchants with immediate pricing decisions, market planning and understanding the longer-term trends in the potato industry.

www.potato.org.ukThe Potato Council website is the fi rst port of call for annual and seasonal analysis on price and crop reporting, statistics on area, yield, production, supplies and disposals, plus retail and foodservice data.

The website also contains the latest version of the GB Weekly Price and monthly Euro-Potato newsletters.

Potato WeeklyPotato Weekly summarises weekly price information gathered from the Potato Councils own surveys. The Weekly Average Price Survey (WAPS) provides two overall indexes, the WAPS Index and the WAPS Free-Buy Index. These prices are summarised from returns made each week by contributing merchants covering 40-50% of movements. It is a top-line economic indicator of the potato industry and is also used by the Eurex Potato Futures market as a settlement price for London Potatoes. A weekly compilation based on the Potato Councils Pricing Panel and from telephone surveys of merchants also provides more detailed high, low and average prices by varieties and market sectors.

euro-PotatoEuro-Potato is a monthly review of crops and markets from the major potato growing countries in northern Europe and beyond.

Retail ReportThe Retail Report and Foodservice Report were created by the Market Intelligence Consumer Insight team. They are produced from data that we have been able to access at reduced cost due to collaborative purchasing by AHDB. The monthly Retail Report covers data, including top-line market sales information, for fresh, frozen and pre-prepared potatoes. The report also looks at how potatoes are performing by retailer, with all of the top fi ve supermarkets covered. It also contains pricing information and a section that provides snippets of the latest potato news in the media. The majority of the data used in the report is sourced from Kantar Worldpanel.

Foodservice ReportThe quarterly Foodservice Report utilises information from NPD Crest. The foodservice market is defi ned as food and drink purchased and consumed outside of the home. The report looks at how potatoes are performing in terms of what is being eaten and where.

Consumer ReportThe quarterly Consumer Report also utilises data from Kantar but looks at the in-home consumption of potatoes. So, whereas the Retail Report details what people are purchasing, the Consumer Report tells us what, how and when they are consuming potatoes. The main focus of the report is the potato category but this is also put into a competitive context with information on the total carbohydrates category, which covers rice and pasta.

Potato Council MarketIntelligence Information Services

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Data Sources

Appendix 4 | 24

levy Collection DataThe Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board Order 2008 requires AHDB to raise levies relating to each sector. (Details can be found at the following web address: www.ahdb.org.uk/about/LevyRates.aspx)

The information provided in the planting return for levy collection is not only used to calculate area levies but it is also a very important source of market intelligence. Using the return data avoids the need for separate forms and helps save levy funds.

The market sector information of the planting return form gives us useful knowledge about the GB potato market; it helps us develop our communication strategy and enables us to provide information and feedback to growers in a more targeted and cost-effi cient manner.

The Potato Council Pricing PanelThe Panel is open to growers who wish to contribute price information; to ensure wide and accurate coverage of the pricing situation from week to week.

A total of 200 regular contacts a combination of growers and purchasers are called on a weekly basis. These contacts represent the key supply areas for the different markets of the potato supply chain and varieties grown across different regions of GB.

If you are interested in becoming a Pricing Panel member, please call the AHDB Market Intelligence department on 0247 669 2051.

Weekly Average Price Survey (WAPS)This survey is open to all merchants or processors who purchase potatoes direct from growers. They complete a form each week summarising total tonnage and value of purchases, categorised by bags/bulk and contract/free-buy. This data is subject to random auditing.

These are processed by the Market Intelligence team to calculate the WAPS average price and free-buy average price. This ensures that the WAPS index is as fair, robust and representative as possible. This helps to give realism and stability to the London futures market and accuracy to economic assessments of the potato industry. For further information on joining the WAPS survey, please call the AHDB Market Intelligence department on 0247 669 2051.

Potato Council Grower Panel SurveyThis survey is based on a randomly selected sample of fi elds. Growers within the sample are invited to participate. They complete three forms which cover information on agronomy, seed use, yields, storage and marketing of production from the designated fi eld.

Additionally, through the Grower Panel website, there is access to current and detailed Grower Panel and Pricing Panel summaries and growers can view and edit their own fi eld information on the website. An invitation is sent with the AHDB planting return forms each year. The survey also monitors planting and lifting of the GB crop.

levy Payer Data Centre

Levy payers who are registered on the Potato Council website (www.potato.org.uk) can access real-time potato market information in Great Britain on areas, varieties, yields, production and prices. The data centre features information gathered from a stratifi ed sample of 350 growers, 500 weekly market information contacts and national planting return data.

Go to: www.potato.org.uk/onlinetoolbox/data-centre

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NePG Representative organisations

Appendix 5 | 25

Great BritainPotato Council France

UNPT

BelgiumFiwapPCAABS

GermanyAMI

REKA

The NetherlandsVTA

Phaff Export Marketing

uNPT Union Nationale des Producteurs de Pommes de Terre. National Potato Grower Union.

Fiwap Walloon region market information centre for potatoes and stock surveys.Represents regional potato growers on behalf of Government.

Interprovinciaal Proefcentrumvoor de Aardappelteelt (PCA) Flanders region potato research organisation. Also gathers economic data and price information. Farmers Union.

ABS Farmers Union for smaller farmers.

AMI Agrarmarkt Informations Gesellschaft; market research organisation, privatised in 2009.

ReKA Grower organisation for Rheinland area, one of the leading growing regions in Germany, mainly processing.

VTA Market and price information centre for arable products, with 600 leading grower members and represents 40% of the whole ware crop.

Phaff export Marketing Export marketing company. Represents Potato Council on the continent and has responsibility for translations in NEPG.

Potato Council Potato industry representative organisation.

France

Belgium

Germany

The Netherlands

Great Britain

More information is available at www.nepg.info

Glossary


earlies Refers to all potatoes harvested on or before 31 July. At this time of year, maincrop supplies will still be available from the previous seasons crop.

Maincrop Potatoes are denoted as being Maincrop if harvested after the end of July.

Prices All prices are ex-farm and exclude the price of bags.

Trend In this context, the word trend is used to highlight the line or curve of best fit.

Years All years are June/May unless otherwise stated.

Yields All potato yields quoted in this publication relate to harvested tonnage and are expressed in terms of planted area.

Plantings All references to plantings imply the measurement of planted area and refer to registered producers only.

Processed All references to processed products have been converted to their raw equivalent tonnages.

Conversion Rates The following ratios have been used to convert processed potato product weight to raw equivalent tonnage: Canned 1:1.0; Crisped 1:4.0; Dehydrated 1:6.2; Frozen/Chilled 1:1.9.

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Contacts


To give us your feedback on the report or for further information about our Market Intelligence services, please contact:

Sara Maslowski (Senior Analyst) T: 0247 647 8786 E: [email protected]

Hannah Goodwin (Analyst) T: 0247 647 8840 E: [email protected]

Steven evans (Senior Analyst Retail & Consumer Insight) T: 0247 647 8843 E: [email protected]

www.ahdb.org.uk

www.potato.org.uk

Potato CouncilAgriculture and Horticulture Development BoardStoneleigh ParkWarwickshire CV8 2TL

Tel: 02476 669 2051

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Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board 2013. All rights reserved.

Potato Council is a division of the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB)

While the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, operating through its Potato Council division, seeks to ensure that the information contained within this document is accurate at the time of publishing, no warranty is given in respect thereof and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused (including that caused by negligence) or suffered directly or indirectly in relation to information and opinions contained in or omitted from this document.

GB Potatoes MI April 2013 Final

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