Gavin Humphries Global Consumer Trends
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Transcript of Gavin Humphries Global Consumer Trends
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Datamonitor1
Global Consumer Trends
The 10 mega-trends shaping the future of consumer
packaged goods
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Agenda
Introduction
The 10 mega-trends
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Introduction
Why global?
Why consumers?
Why trends?
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The determinants of consumer behavior
Latent Applied
Thoughts
Actions
Values
Occasions
Attitudes
Behaviors
.
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Rule #1
Trends last atleast 10 years
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Distinguishing between trends and fads
Factor Trends Fads
What is driving
it?Substantive drivers e.g.
DemographicsLifestyles
ValuesTechnology
Transitory factors e.g.Pop cultureCelebrities
FashionMedia
How accessible
is it? Accessible to the mainstream Limited to a target niche
How broad is it? Crosses product category and industryboundaries as well as demographicgroups
Limited to very specific product
categories and rarely crosses
demographic groups
How long it lasts At least 10 years A few seasons at most
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The 10 mega-trends
Age complexity
Gender complexity
Lifestage complexity
Income complexity
Convenience
Health
Sensory
Individualism
Homing
Connectivity
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Age complexity
Kids growing up young
Age-specific psychological states among children are contracting,thanks to media and marketing
Youths aspire to be older:
US Youths: Current age Aspired age
12 17
13 1714 18
15 18
16 18
17 19
Sources: Developmental Differences in Children andthe Challenge of Developmental Compression, Cohen
and Cahill, International Journal of Advertising and
Marketing to Children; Teenage Research Unlimited
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Age complexity
Kidults adults acting younger
Contemporary adult attitudes and behaviors increasingly reflect ayouthful disposition
While the age gap between generations has never been bigger as peoplehave children later in life, the attitudinal gap has never been smaller
IJMAC, Octob er 2003
Seniors enjoying a 2nd youth
Wild elderlyretirees who cant take their age seriously and want tohave fun
Seniors see themselves as 12-15 years younger than they actually areSources: Advertising Age; MORI
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Age complexity
Products for kids growing up young
Solero Shotsswigging action to mimic adults drinking
Junior Horlicks adult brand repositioned for children
Adults acting younger
Macleans 40+
Sun Valley String Cheese with real olives
LAngelica Anti-Age tea
Ageless marketing
Evian Makes you feel young at heart
Weetabix Energy for Everyone
Nescafe Energo - a universal fortified
coffee drink for energizing mind and body
http://www.guaber.com/products/productdetail.asp?id=908 -
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Rule #2
For every trendthere is a
counter-trend
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Age complexity
Counter-trend: age as identity
Some seniors are proud of their age
They want to demonstrate their superior wisdom and abilities
the fact that they have mastered the art of living
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The 10 mega-trends
Age complexity
Gender complexity
Lifestage complexity
Income complexity
Convenience
Health
Sensory
Individualism
Homing
Connectivity
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Gender complexity
The feminization of society and men
Increasing economic wealth of women
Men taking a more active role in parenting
Metrosexuality among men
Men have now claimed the right to think and act for themselves.Trendsetters and celebrities have broken stereotypes giving men
the freedom and confidence to revolutionize the image that they
want to portray of themselves. (Brand manager, Parfums Jean
Paul Gaultier, quoted in Cosmetics International, July 2003)
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Gender complexity
Counter trend: gender as identity
Among men:
Lads mags as a backlash to the feminization of society
Among women:
Independence from men
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Gender complexity
Counter trend: gender as identity
Products targeting gender as identity
Nestle Yorkie bar
LUNA bars
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The 10 mega-trends
Age complexity
Gender complexity
Lifestage complexity
Income complexity
Convenience
Health
Sensory
Individualism
Homing
Connectivity
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Lifestage complexity
(Millions of Europeans 1995 2000 CAGR 95-00 2005 CAGR 00-05
living as)
Singles 70.4 75.6 1.4% 81.0 1.4%
Couples Without Kids 77.5 80.6 0.8% 82.0 0.3%
Nuclear Families 154.1 143.9 -1.4% 132.7 -1.6%Single Parent 27.4 28.4 0.7% 29.4 0.7%
Empty Nesters 54.5 58.9 1.6% 63.7 1.6%
Overall 383.9 387.4 0.2% 388.8 0.1%
Demographic complexity is creating more fragmented family
structures across Europe
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Datamonitor19
The 10 mega-trends
Age complexity
Gender complexity
Lifestage complexity
Income complexity
Convenience
Health
Sensory
Individualism
Homing
Connectivity
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Income complexity
High income groups spending on anti-luxury
Downshifting and simplifying
Getting a bargain
Spending on needs and not wants
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Income complexity
Lower income groups spending on luxury on a budget
Budget Living
Sacrificial consumption
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Income complexity
Capitalizing on the increased desire for professionalism
Max FactorThe makeup of makeup artists
Orbit Professional chewing gum
Praveks Herbal Slimming Tea developed by Ayurvedic doctors
Aspirational products for mid-income consumers
Wolfgang Puck Soups
Frozen Dessert souffls from the Bistro Garden restaurant
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Datamonitor23
The 10 mega-trends
Age complexity
Gender complexity
Lifestage complexity
Income complexity
Convenience
Health
Sensory
Individualism
Homing
Connectivity
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Convenience: values and attitudes
Fitting in many competing demands on time
83%
60%
40%35%
27%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Family Work Friends Leisure Religion
Percentage of global
respondents that
consider the following
to very important in
their life
Source: World Values Survey
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Convenience: behaviors
Multitasking
One-stop shopping
Consuming on-the-go
Top-up shopping
Eating light
Grazing
Last-minute planning
Outsourcing
Seeking quick fixes
Pit-stopping
Creating a home from home
Compact living
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-7.3
5.4
-3.2
10.6
-1.7
5.5
-10-8-6-4-202468
1012
Breakfast Morningsnacking Lunch Afternoonsnacking Dinner Eveningsnacking
Change in eating
occasions per head
per year 2002-2007
Fragmenting eating occasions across Europe
Convenience: behaviors
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Convenience: best practice
Easy-to-use
Sotocos Spoonty is a tea spoon to replace the tea bag
Itoham Foods ready meal comes in a disposable metal
pan that acts as the heating pan and the bowl
Space efficient
Coca Colas Fridge Pack Vendor
Kirin Tarunama Ichiban Shibori
On-the-go innovation Self-heating Hotcan ready meals
Aldo's Pizza Bar pizza to heat in a cup
Campbells Soup At Hand portable soup
H2O No Gas water in a slim hip flask with
belt clip
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Datamonitor28
The 10 mega-trends
Age complexity
Gender complexity
Lifestage complexity
Income complexity
Convenience
Health
Sensory
Individualism
Homing
Connectivity
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Health: values and attitudes
Greater value is being placed on healthiness and wellbeing
Health awareness and concern is growing
Ageing populations mean greater health concerns
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Health: behaviors
Exercising
Adopting regimes
Dieting
Seeking nutrition
Information seeking
Self-medicating
De-stressing
Acting holistically
Seeking total solutions
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Health: behaviors
Occasional usersLoyal users
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2002 2007
42.6 78.0
166.7
226.3
CAGR7.8%
Natural and organic food and drink
consumers in Europe (m)
Seeking nutrition
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Health: best practice
Functional drinks and cosmeceuticals:
Pokka Amino Lemon drink helps the
over 50s retain a youthful appearance
Orchard Maid and Addera Probiotic Drink witha probiotic straw
Kanebo Collagen Suplipet drink with collagen
Inneov fermete skin firming tablets
SP Marine Super P anti-hypertension drink
Yakults Lemorea anti-hypertension drink
Benecol cholesterol lowering dairy drink
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Health: best practice
Better for you food for kids:
Congelados Patitas drumstick shaped breaded vegetables
McCain Smiles pre-cooked in a polyunsaturated oil and are
cholesterol free
Natural health innovation
Frito-Lay Natural snacks
Asahis Aqua Blue made with deep sea water
Total health solutions
Wisdoms YerbaMate Royale natural tea for losing weight,
boosting energy and alertness
Campbell's Ignite Frozen Entree no artificial flavors; 16
essential nutrients; 2 servings of veg; high in protein
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Rule #3
There are rich
pickings whenproducts satisfy
two or more
mega-trends
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Health: crossover trends
Health on-the-go
Putting healthy products into on-the-go formats
Norwegian Jake's BackPack Lunch in a canister
Deli Dashers Salad Bowl
Friesland Breaker yogurt in a resealable pouch
Jt Aka Oolong RTD tea enriched with vitaminsin a resealable bottle can
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Datamonitor36
The 10 mega-trends
Age complexity
Gender complexity
Lifestage complexity
Income complexity
Convenience
Health
Sensory
Individualism
Homing
Connectivity
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Datamonitor37
Sensory: behaviors
Seeking experiences
Going to extremes
Seeking sensations
Exploring new cultures
Seeking professionalism
Trading up
Experimenting
Seeking authenticity
Not compromizing
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Sensory: best practice
New taste sensations
Authentic: Steaz Green Tea Soda micro-brewed
Authentic: Farm Route Food Pot Pie from named farms
Novel: Strathmore Still Spring Water in chocolate flavor
Ethnic: Lurpak with Mediterranean herbs
Flavor cues in packaging
Pom Wonderful juice in pomegranate shaped bottle
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Sensory: best practice
Extreme and intense
Percol Rocket Fuel tea with an explosive caffeine kick
Sprite on Fire with an unique burning ginger sensation
Magma Cinnamon Schnapps Liqueur with a hot peppery taste
Virgin Sours sour soda
Herman Goelitzs Harry Potter yuck flavor sweets
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Sensory: best practice
Interactive sensations
KP Skips with fizz sensation that turns tongue yellow
Nestles Jambos lick jam to reveal picture
Sakito Juice Drink Thumb it, punch it, drink it
Experiential products
LOccitane holiday scents perfume
Crest Whitening Expressions
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Rule #4
Fads when
underpinned by
a mega-trend
are a good way
to maintaininterest
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Sensory: crossover trends
Sensory + Convenience = Fast casual dining
Fresher, better than quick service restaurants
but quicker, less formal service than full service
Driving growth in the foodservice industry
Sensory + Health = Mediterranean diet
Has been promoted as a healthier alternative to traditional diets since the 1960s
Considered to be tasty as well as healthy, driving it to a value of117bn inEurope
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The 10 mega-trends
Age complexity
Gender complexity
Lifestage complexity
Income complexity
Convenience
Health
Sensory
Individualism
Homing
Connectivity
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Individualism: behaviors
Getting rich quick
Being exclusive
Living alone
Being individual
Multi-lifestyling
Having it your way
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Individualism: best practice
Customization innovation
Jones Soda create your own labels
Coca-Colas Style-a-Coke shrink wrap system
Lavazza pod tea bags
FreshDirect offers a customized online
shopping experience
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Datamonitor 46
The 10 mega-trends
Age complexity
Gender complexity
Lifestage complexity
Income complexity
Convenience
Health
Sensory
Individualism
Homing
Connectivity
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Homing: values and attitudes
The value placed on home and family
Increasing importance of the home
In the western world there is a growing desire for family life
although family values have remained strong in Asia and Latin
America
Links between home, family and tradition
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Homing: behaviors
Cocooning
Pampering
Everyday treating
Bringing third places home
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Homing: best practice
Products that offer at-home third place
experiences
Kraft Parmesan restaurant-style shaker
Pizza Express restaurant pizzas in supermarkets
Nichirei Beef Stew based on recipes from Tokyos
famous Nihonbashi Taimeiken restaurant
Heineken Beer Tender
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Homing: best practice
Indulgent products for everyday treating
Coca-Colas Barqs Floats is a treat not a thirst quencher
Pepsi Vanilla nostalgic sweet indulgence
Cadburys Almond Biscotti dream with premium ingredients
Innovation in safety
Cloud Juicewater bottled from pure rain
Black Forest Pearl Mineralwasser mild, low sodium
bottled water ideal for babies and older people
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Homing: trend clash
The debits and credits consumer
Behavior characterized by moving between periods of unhealthybehavior (debits) to healthy behavior (credits)
Represents a clash between health and indulgence
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Rule #5
If manufacturers
cannot straddletwo trends,
consumers will
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Datamonitor 53
The 10 mega-trends
Age complexity
Gender complexity
Lifestage complexity
Income complexity
Convenience
Health
Sensory
Individualism
Homing
Connectivity
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Datamonitor 54
Connectivity: values and attitudes
Beyond family and friends
Communities Community feeling
Nations
Ethnocentrism
The world
Environmental concerns
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Connectivity: behaviors
Being connected
Replacing family with friends
Being cool
Word-of-mouth
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Connectivity: best practice
Shareable product innovation
Masterfoods Celebrations
Doritos Friendchips
Eat Smart Vegetable Party Tray
Products that facilitate connections
Britvic J2Ofit in with alcohol drinkers
Molson Twin Label beer socializing aid on label
P&G Pringles with Trivia Pursuit printed on crisps
Cool packaging
Asymmetric bottle that evokes the fluidity of water
Shasta Shotrz in funky shorts design and size
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Connectivity: crossover trends
Connectivity + Homing = Entertaining at home
Entertaining at home occasions in Europe and the US will grow at 1% p.a.
Related spending will grow at 3-5% p.a.
Product innovations
Fosters CoolKeg targets the barbecue occasion
Stella Artois Dining Pack
Spa Reine Rolling bottled water
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Conclusions
Use the rules
1. Track long-term mega-trends
2. Spot early opportunities amongst counter-trends
3. Find crossovers that combine two or more trends
4. Use fads when they allow you to reinterpret mega-trends
5. Look for unmet needs where consumer behavior is contradictory
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