Gallop ahead with India Opportunity Portfolio V2 · Source: Mid to Mega - 20th Wealth Creation...
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Gallop ahead with India Opportunity Portfolio V2 November 2018
Transcript of Gallop ahead with India Opportunity Portfolio V2 · Source: Mid to Mega - 20th Wealth Creation...
Gallop ahead withIndia Opportunity Portfolio V2
November 2018
§ Why India and India’s scope for long term growth
Why Small and Midcap por�olio
Opportunity in Mid and Smallcap segment
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Outperformance in Upcycles§
Themes of IOPV2§
Why Mo�lal Oswal Asset Management§
Wealth Crea�on Journey§
Success Stories§1
Why India
2Source : India Strategy report May 2017
5.2 5.56.0 5.7
4.33.9 4.0
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3.2
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Fiscal deficit
Improving Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
The Government of India has taken significant initiatives to strengthen the economic credentials of the country, to make it one of the strongest economies in the world.
Indian companies are gaining a stronger foothold internationally and expanding their international presence by investing overseas.
The country continues to urbanise at a strong pace driven by a combination of up trending consumption, robust job creation and growing financial penetration.
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Current account balance
Lower CAD (Current Account Deficit) over the Years (% of GDP)
8.1
5.7
3.6 3.32.8 2.5
2.1
1.10.7
Ru
ssia
Ind
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Thai
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Currency appreciation via-a-vis USD in 2017
India is one of best performing EM (Emerging Markets) currency in 2017
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India stands out among Real GDP Growth
Emerging Markets continue to remain attractive on Real GDP growth differentials
India stands out on the Emerging Markets pack on the back of strong fundamentals Source : IMF, World Economic outlook (April 2017)
Major Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies
CY1
3
Real GDP Growth (% y/y)C
Y14
CY1
5
CY1
6
CY1
7
CY1
8E
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0
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2 2.11.7
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CY1
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CY1
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8E
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7.2
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6.87.2
7.7
Middle East, North Africa,
Afghanistan and Pakistan
India
CY1
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CY1
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CY1
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CY1
4
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India Long Term Growth Trend
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO) and Motilal Oswal internal research; Data as on April 2017
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10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
FY 5
7
FY 5
9
FY 6
1
FY 6
3
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5
FY 6
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FY 6
9
FY 7
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FY 7
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FY 7
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FY 8
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FY 8
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FY 8
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FY 8
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FY 9
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FY 9
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FY 0
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FY 0
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3.56 3.874.07
5.56
6.49
7.72
India Annual Real GDP Growth (%) 10 Year Growth
FY 1
5
FY 1
7
Every 10 years, from FY1957 to FY2016,we see an upward shift in India's CAGR
10 Year average GDP growth has gone from 3.56 to 7.72
We are now set to enter the next decade of a lift in growth
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Why India – Markets may deliver double digit Earnings Growth
In the long run, the markets always follow the earning pattern. For Nifty, FY17-20E the EPS growth stands at 17% CAGR, which shows the potential upside for the markets growth for 3 year period.
Source: Motilal Oswal Research India Strategy February 2018
The statements made herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
FY01-08:21% CAGR
FY08-17:
4.5% CAGR
FY17-20E:18.9% CAGR
15%
25%
17%
73 78 92131
169 184
236
281
251
247
315
349
369
405
413 395 418480
601
703
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
6%
5
Markets return as much as growth in earnings
Sensex YoY Sensex EPS
YoY
Mar-95 3261 181 Mar-07 13072 16% 720 33%
Mar-96 3367 3% 250 38% Mar-08 15644 20% 833 16%
Mar-97 3361 0% 266 6% Mar-09 9709 -38% 820 -2%
Mar-98 3893 16% 291 9% Mar-10 17528 81% 834 2%
Mar-99 3740 -4% 278 -4% Mar-11 19445 11% 1024 23%
Mar-00 5001 34% 280 1% Mar-12 17404 -10% 1120 9%
Mar-01 3604 -28% 216 -23% Mar-13 18836 8% 1180 5%
Mar-02 3469 -4% 236 9% Mar-14 22386 19% 1329 13%
Mar-03 3049 -12% 272 15% Mar-15 27957 25% 1354 2%
Mar-04 5591 83% 361 33% Mar 16 25341 -9% 1330 -2%
Mar-05 6493 16% 446 24%
Mar-06 11280 74% 540 21% StdDev 32% 14%
CAGR 10% 10%Source: Motilal Oswal Securities, MOAMC Internal Analysis | Data as on 31st March 2017
22-years CAGR of Sensex at 11% is exactly the same as 22-years Sensex EPS CAGR!
CAGR - is an investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period; Std Dev - a quantity expressing by how much the members of a group differ from the mean value for the group.The information provided herein is for illustrative purpose only and should not be construed as an investment advice.; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments; Mar-95 is taken as base year
Sensex YoY Sensex EPS YoYYear Year
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Mar-07 13072 16% 720 33%
Mar 17 29621 17% 1347 1%
Food For Thought
Over long periods of time equities do deliver in line with corporate earnings; but it’s a known fact that the volatility in share prices is way higher than volatility of earnings themselves.
This volatility in share prices results in emotional response of greed in rising markets and fear in falling markets. Mostly these responses are way more exaggerated on upside as well as downside.
When evaluated in hindsight after the data plays out; one usually rues that responses were disproportionate to changes in corporate earnings.
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Why Small and Midcap Portfolio
Source: Focused Investing – 21st Wealth Creation Study by Raamdeo Agrawal
Wealth creation happens when Small caps and Mid cap become Large cap
While Large Caps give stability to the portfolio, only 71% of large cap companies remained in large cap category & delivered stable growth of 8%.
Selective Opportunities lie in the Mid and Small Cap Space to deliver high growth rates. Hence Fund Manager needs to be choosy in stock selection. ~2.3% of small cap companies become mid cap companies & delivered 39% returns while 13% of mid cap companies become large cap companies & delivered 31% returns
Exhibit 16 2011-16: Market Cap Crossovers: No. of companies and average returns
From (in 2011)
Mini Mid Mega New Demerger TOTALTO (in 2016)
MegaAvg Return
MidAvg Return
MiniAvg Return
Delisted,Demerger, etc
TotalAvg Return
026
31%
71
8%
3 0 100
67
39%
88
9%
25
-16%
19 1 200
2,479
1%
84
-20%
2
-32%
711 2 3,278
397 2 2 2 -3 400
200
0%
100
1%735 0 3,978
2,943
2%
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Scope in Small and Midcaps
Entrepreneurialzeal
Possibility of re-rating of
P/E
Under researched
segment
Fewer businesslines & focussed
businessesLarger universe of opportunities
High growth potential
Presence in emerging
sectors
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Success rate in Small and Midcap Portfolio
Source: Mid to Mega - 20th Wealth Creation Study by Raamdeo Agrawal
Mid and Small cap… balancing the odds…
Mini, Mid, Mega crossovers - 2000-05, 2005-10, 2010-15 Note: Figures In brackets indicate number of companies
2000-05: Median return CAGR
Market return: 5%
Mini
Mid
Mini
To
158%
(1)
55%
(17)
21%
(59)
57%
(58)
21%
(90)
-4%
(28)
19%
(1,039)
-3%
(93)
-40%
(13)
From
Mid Mega
Total stocks 1,098 200 100
2005-10: Median return CAGR
Market return: 22%
Mini
Mid
Mini
To
76%
(2)
46%
(9)
27%
(66)
61%
(25)
24%
(89)
9%
(32)
11%
(1,465)
4%
(102)
-32%
(3)
From
Mid Mega
Total stocks 1,492 200 100
2010-15: Median return CAGR
Market return: 10%
Mini
Mid
Mini
To
68%
(3)
33%
(24)
11%
(71)
38%
(64)
9%
(88)
-13%
(26)
0%
(1,841)
-19%
(88)
-32%
(3)
From
Mid Mega
Total stocks 1,908 200 100
Mega Mega Mega
Over a 5 year period maximum return is generated from companies crossing from (i) Mini to Mid /Mega and (ii) Mid to Mega
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Where lies the opportunity
Highest returnsVery low probability
Strong returnsLow – medium probability
Market returnsHigh probability
Strong returns Low probability
Market returnsHigh probability
UnderperformanceMedium probability
UnderperformanceVery high probability
UnderperformanceMedium probability
Massive capital lossLow probability
Mini Mid Mega
Min
iM
idM
ega
To
From
Return & Probability Matrix
What it takes to achieve Mid – to – Mega ?
§ Iden�fying quality businesses with quality management
§ Dis�nct value proposi�on that gives company an edge over its compe��on
§ Avoid value traps
Exper�se in bo�om up stock picking is the key to iden�fy mul�baggers 11
Targets a unique and relatively untapped opportunity
No. of Companies
110
2,221
Sweet spot requires research and investment exper�se
Mega / Large Cap>Rs.240 Bn
Mid Cap & Small Cap <Rs. 100 Bn
§ Extensively researched§ Moderate Growth§ High Ins�tu�onal Holding
§ Under-Researched, Under-owned§ High Growth§ Demonstrated management history
§ Most Difficult Category as many fail at pre-emergence stage
§ Business models not established § Massive Growth for survivors
The sweet spot of the Indian markets is replete with investment ideas in the midcap & small cap spaceMidcaps & smallcap offer excellent balance between strong growth and a demonstrable history of management success
Larger Mid CapRs. 100Bn-240Bn
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Source : Capitaline & Internal Analysis, Data as on Sep 30, 2017
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Outperformance of Midcaps & Smallcaps in Upcycles
Historical Performance Comparison
IndexPhase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Apr 2003 Dec 2007 CAGR (%) Sep 2008 Dec 2010 CAGR (%) Sep 2013 Sep 2017 CAGR (%)
Ni�y 50 934 6,139 50 3,921 6,135 43 5,735 9,789 14
Ni�y Midcap100 956 9,199 62 3,176 9,361 61 6,998 18,108 27
BSE Smallcap 893 11,135 72 2,959 9,331 67 5,749 16,114 29
Source: Bloomberg; Data as on September 30,2017Note: Above numbers are price adjusted for infla�on. The informa�on herein is used for comparison purpose and is illustra�ve and is not sufficient and shouldn’t be used for the development or implementa�on of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to/by any party. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
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Ni�y 50 Ni�y Freefloat Midcap 100 BSE Small Cap
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Center Themes for IOPV2
Affordable housing
Focus of government
on Housing for all
by 2020
Unorganized
to Organized
Implementa�on of GST and e-way bill
Value Migra�on
Market share gains by NBFCs and private
sector banks from PSU banks
Rural Economy
Focus of government on doubling of farm income
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Why Motilal Oswal PMS?
Basic Traits of our Investing Style
Motilal Oswal Group possess legacy in equities for over 3 decade.
Motilal Oswal AMC is chaired by Mr. Raamdeo Agrawal, one of the most honored and trusted name in the investing world.
One of the pioneers of PMS business with over 15 years of PMS track record.
Trusted by over 40,490 HNI investors and with over Rs. 14,439 Crs of AUM as on st
31 Oct 2018.
Presence across the length and breadth of India.
We invest in companies with operating leverage than financial leverage.
We do not believe in “timing the market”, rather we believe in “spending time in market”.
We do not over diversify.
The businesses we invest, must have growth potential with economic moat.
We practise long term Buy and Hold investing style.
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Our investment philosophy – ‘Buy Right : Sit Tight’
At Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company (MOAMC), our investment philosophy is centered on 'Buy Right: Sit Tight‘ principle.
Buy Right Sit Tight
‘Q’uality denotes quality of the business and management
‘G’rowth denotes growth in earnings and sustained RoE
‘L’ongevity denotes longevity of the competitive advantage or economic moat of the business
‘P’rice denotes our approach of buying a good business for a fair price rather than buying a fair business for a good price
Buy and Hold: We are strictly buy and hold investors and believe that picking the right business needs skill and holding onto these businesses to enable our investors to benefit from the entire growth cycle needs even more skill.
Focus: Our portfolios are high conviction portfolios with 25 to 30 stocks being our ideal number. We believe in adequate diversification but over-diversification results in diluting returns for our investors and adding market risk
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Why ‘Buy Right : Sit Tight’ is significant?
Real wealth is created by riding out bulk of the growth curve of quality companies and not by trading in and out in response to buy, sell and hold recommendations.
This philosophy enables investor and manager alike to keep focus on the businesses they are holding rather than get distracted by movements in share prices.
An approach of buying high quality stocks and holding them for a long term wealth creation motive, results in drastic reduction of costs for the end investor.
While BUY RIGHT is largely the role of the portfolio manager, SIT TIGHT calls for involvement from the portfolio manager as well as investor. This brings in greater accountability from the manager and at the same time calls for better involvement and understanding from investor resulting in better education for the latter.
Long term multiplication of wealth is obtained only by holding on to the winners and deserting the losers.
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Strategy objective, Risk-Return matrix& construct
Investment Horizon- Long Term (3 Years +)
For Whom- Investors who like to invest with a Long-term
wealth creation view
Strategy constructNo. of Stocks
- Around 25 stocks for a portfolio
Scrip Allocation
- Not more than 10% in a single stock when at the time of initiation
Sector Allocation Limit
- 35% in a sector
Strategy Aim
- It aims to deliver superior returns by participating in India Investment and consumption Growth Story
Strategy Focus
- Focus is on identifying well run companies that are existing/potential leaders in the field of operations
IndianOpportunity
PortfolioStrategy
V2
Low Low toMedium
Medium Mediumto High
High
Low
Low
to
Med
ium
Med
ium
Med
ium
to H
igh
Hig
h
Ris
k
Return
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Model Holding
Top 10 HoldingsSector Allocations
stPlease Note: These stocks are a part of the existing India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy V2 as on 31 October 2018. These stocks may or may not be bought for new clients. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments. The strategy may or may not have any future holdings in these stocks. The companies mentioned above are only for the purpose of explaining the concept and should not be construed as recommendations from MOAMC.
Scrip Names % Holdings
12.27
7.96
7.76
7.01
6.77
6.52
6.14
5.49
4.85
4.80
Heg Ltd.
Gruh Finance Ltd.
Cholamandalam Investment And Finance Company Ltd.
Godrej Agrovet Ltd.
Ipca Lab Ltd.
Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd.
Bajaj Electricals Ltd.
Sobha Ltd.
Sundaram Fasteners Ltd.
Bata India Ltd.
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Banking & Finance
Electricals & Electronics
Agriculture
Pharmaceuticals
Restaurants
Real Estate
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Retail
Cement
Construction
Shipping
Packaging
Infotech
Cash
23.15
21.09
10.99
8.22
6.52
5.49
4.85
4.80
4.42
3.782.54
2.141.52
0.49
MOAMC – Wealth Creation Journey
10 years track record
Invests primarily in mul� cap stocks with poten�alhigh growth
Concentra�on on emerging themes which are part
of the next trillion dollar GDP growth opportunity
Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity (NTDOP)
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India Opportunity Por�olio (IOP)
7 year track record
Small and Mid Cap Por�olio
Invests in stocks with poten�al to grow more than the nominal GDP for next 5-7 years
Focus is on iden�fying well run companies that are poten�al leaders
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The performance shown above is of a model client, performance of an individual client may be different , depending on the time of investment in the strategyData as on October 31, 2018
Incep�on Date – 5th December. 2007
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NTDOP Strategy Ni�y 500
Incep�on Date – 15th February 2010
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Ni�y Smallcap 100
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5.47x
1.72x
2.74x
1.75x
Success Stories
Mul�baggers across strategies…
st* As on 31 October 2018The stocks shown above are part of portfolios of model client. The Stocks mentioned above are used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. The stocks may or may not be part of our portfolio/strategy/ schemes. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
Stocks Purchase DatePurchase
Price (INR)Current Market
Price (INR)*Performance
(%)
Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Por�olio
Page Industries December 2007 29,454 6354%
Bajaj Finance August 2010 2,383 3710%
Eicher Motors August 2010 21,865 1763%
Mahanagar Gas August 2016 511 837 64%
Aegis Logis�cs August 2016 123 217 77%
Gabriel India August 2016 106 133 25%
CAGR (Growth %)
46%
55%
43%
25%
29%
10%
HPCL June-2014 224 129% 21%
Bosch December 2007
456
63
1174
98
4864 19,747 306% 14%
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India Opportunity Por�olio
Chairman
Raamdeo Agrawal is the Co-Founder and Joint Managing Director of
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL).
As Chairman of Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company, he has
been instrumental in evolving the investment management
philosophy and framework.
He has also authored the Art of Wealth Creation, that compiles
insights from 23 years of his Annual 'Wealth Creation Studies'.
He is on the National Committee on Capital Markets of the
Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), and is the recipient of
"Rashtriya Samman Patra" awarded by the Government of India.
Raamdeo Agrawal is an Associate of Institute of Chartered
Accountants of India.
Mr. Raamdeo Agrawal
Chairman
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Fund Management Team
Manish Sonthalia
As one of the founding members of the MOAMC's business, Manish today heads the Managed Accounts business and is the Portfolio Manager for the firm's PMS Strategies and AIFs
He has been with the Group for over 14 years.
He has a cumulative 26 years of experience across equity fund management and research covering Indian equity markets.
He holds a Bachelors Degree in Commerce (Hons) , Chartered Accountancy, Cost & Works Accountancy, Company Secretaries. He has also completed his Masters of Business Administration in Finance from IISWBM
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Atul Mehra
Mr Atul Mehra has over 10 years of experience as an investment professional
He has been with Motilal Oswal for more than 5 years and prior to that he was with Edelweiss Capital for 5 years
He did his graduation in BAF (Bachelor of commerce in accounting and finance) from HR College, Mumbai and post-graduation in commerce through MCOM (Masters in Commerce, Accountancy) from Mumbai University
He is a CFA Charterholder from CFA Institute, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA.
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Strategy Construct
Mode of payment By Fund Transfer/Cheque and/or Stock Transfer
Investment Horizon Long Term (3 Years +)
Benchmark Nifty Smallcap 100
Account Activation Next business day of Clearance of funds
Portfolio Valuation
Operations- Investments managed on individual basis- Third party Custodian for funds and securities
Reporting- Monthly Performance Statement- Transaction, Holding & Corporate Action Reports- Annual CA certified statement of the Account
Servicing- Dedicated Relationship Manager- Web access for portfolio tracking
Closing NSE marketprice of the previous day
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Disclaimer
Disclaimer: This presentation has been prepared and issued on the basis of internal data, publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this document is for general purposes only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact and terms and conditions. The information / data herein alone is not sufficient and shouldn’t be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. All opinions, figures, charts/graphs, estimates and data included in this presentation are as on date and are subject to change without notice. While utmost care has been exercised while preparing this document, Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Limited does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Readers shall be fully responsible /liable for any decision taken on the basis of this presentation. No part of this document may be duplicated in whole or in part in any form and/or redistributed without prior written consent of the Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Limited. Readers should before investing in the Scheme make their own investigation and seek appropriate professional advice. • Investments in Securities are subject to market and other risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of any of the strategies of the Portfolio Management Services will be achieved. • Clients under Portfolio Management Services are not being offered any guaranteed/assured returns. • Past performance of the Portfolio Manager does not indicate the future performance of any of the strategies. • The name of the Strategies do not in any manner indicate their prospects or return. • The investments may not be suited to all categories of investors. • The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. • Neither Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC), nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice. • Opinions, if any, expressed are our opinions as of the date of appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. • The Portfolio Manager is not responsible for any loss or shortfall resulting from the operation of the strategy. • Recipient shall understand that the aforementioned statements cannot disclose all the risks and characteristics. The recipient is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return, etc. and take professional advice before investing. As with any investment in securities, the Value of the portfolio under management may go up or down depending on the various factors and forces affecting the capital market. Disclosure Document shall be obtained and read carefully before executing the PMS agreement. • Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward - looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. • For tax consequences, each investor is advised to consult his / her own professional tax advisor. • This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished solely for information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without ’MOAMCs prior written consent. • Distribution Restrictions – This material should not be circulated in countries where restrictions exist on soliciting business from potential clients residing in such countries. Recipients of this material should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Recipients shall be solely liable for any liability incurred by them in this regard and will indemnify MOAMC for any liability it may incur in this respect.
Custodian: IL&FS Securities Services Ltd | Auditor: Aneel Lasod & Associates | Depository: Central Depositary Services Ltd
Portfolio Manager: Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC) | SEBI Registration No. : INP 000000670
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For any PMS queries please call us on +91 22 39982602 or write to [email protected] or visit www.motilaloswalmf.com
