Future Scenarios and Technology for Urban Transport · 2019-11-27 · The fourth transport...
Transcript of Future Scenarios and Technology for Urban Transport · 2019-11-27 · The fourth transport...
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Future Scenarios and Technology
for Urban Transport
Otto Anker Nielsen
Professor
Head of Transport DTU
– Role of transport modelling in future
transportation systems
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
The first transport revolution
•Use of animals for transport
–Gradually developed over thousands of years
–Speed, load
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
The second transport revolution
•Use of wind for sea transport
–Gradually developed over thousands of years
– Improved ship building technology and navigation
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
The third transport revolution
•Machines as power source
–Fast technology development, US rail network development 1880-1890
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Transport achievements, in general
•Faster (usually)
•More comfortable (in general)
•Much larger volumes
•More reliable (usually)
•Cheaper (per unit)
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
6 08.11.2016
However, challenge with regard to energy use and climate,…
•Energy use in Denmark
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
…and capacity problems in the transport network
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Recent Demand changes in Denmark
• Urbanization
– Challenges both in urban and
rural areas
– Changed commuting patterns
• MaaS
– Enable non-car owners to use cars
• Car ownership
– Changes due to changed
taxation
– Energy efficient micro cars
• Changed goods transport and
delivery concepts
– Internet sale almost 25% of
retail Population forecast in NTM/Statistics of Denmark, 2010-2030 http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/penge/danskernes-internethandel-
naermer-sig-100-milliarder-kroner
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Public transport market share (%), commuting (National Transport Survey)
Distance from work to station
Distance from home to station
<400 m 400-800 m 800-2000 m
<400 m 31% 25% 26%
400-800 m 25% 24% 22%
800-2000 m 27% 16% 11%
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Market share public transport (%) Copenhagen region, commuting
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 %
With transfer Direct train
Distance to stations (sum of both ends)
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Forecasted growth in congestion in Copenhagen
•Growth in delay time of 98% until 2025
•This could be reduced to a growth of 68% by unrealistically massive infrastructure investments
•Status quo in delay time could only be obtained by introducing road pricing
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Capacity for different modes of transport (Passengers per hour per lane)
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Challenged urban transport infrastructure
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Urban space for non-transport purposes!
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Shared Economy
•Taxi variants
•Co-driving
•Carpooling
•Rented cars
/shifting drivers
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Different concepts by same provider
16 8 November 2016
•10% of the Danish population is member of GoMore
–(515,056 members as of 24 Nov, 2016)
Get a ride Rent a car
Where do you want to go?
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Shared Economy
•With or without driver?
•Issue with regard to asymmetry in transport patterns
–Last mile issue
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Mobility as a Service as a concept
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Fle
xib
ility
Cost
Bus
Taxi Own car
MaaS 2.0
MaaS 3.0
MaaS 1.0
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
The fourth transport revolution
•Digital age transportation with self driving Autonomous vehicles
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Enabling technologies
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Sensing
Modelling and prediction
New technologies
DTU Management engineering
DTU Skylab DTU Energy
DTU Mechanical Engineering
DTU Electrical Engineering
DTU Photonic
DTU Space
DTU Compute
DTU Environment
DTU Civil Engineering
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Phases of introducing autonomous cars
Level of automation;
1. Safety features
2. Assisted driving
3. Platooned trucks
4. Platooned cars
5. Self driving vehicles
6. Autonomous vehicles
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Location of operation
1. Special lanes
2. Motorways
3. Highways
4. Rural roads
5. Urban arterials
6. Everywhere
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Assisted autonomous cars - Benefits
•Safer
•More comfortable
•Better use of time
•Platooned trucks (and cars)
•More capacities at motorways
•Improved traffic control?
–Depended on level of connectivity
–Traffic signal control, etc.
–Public versus private market
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
When we reach complete autonomous cars!
•New use of cars
•New user groups
•Parking
•Mobility as a service
•Non-person transport with passenger cars
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
New use of cars
•Moving office
•Moving hotel room
•Assumingly this will lead to (much) more transport
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
New user groups
•Mobility as a Service
•Children
•Handicapped
•Elderly
•Drunk (going home from party)
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Parking •Idle empty driving
–Does not ”hurt” the car owner
•Driving for parking space
–Empty return run
•Results
–City centers (Urban spaces) can be relieved for parked cars
–But roads may suffer of more congestion due to empty cars driving around
–And more car driving in general
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Mobility as a service
•Autonomous cars solves the imbalance of the flow of passengers and freight over time and space
•Empty return runs
•Repositioning cars to predicted demand
–Swarms of empty vehicles driving around
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Will autonomous MaaS cars replace private cars in the long run?
•MaaS becomes
–Cheaper
–Easier to use and more reliable
–But still some transaction costs
•Private cars may become
–Cheaper (relatively to income)
–More flexible when autonomous
–Still convenience of owning
–And we become richer!
28 08.11.2016
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Shared economy is not new,…
29 08.11.2016
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Change of cost and flexibility of autonomous cars
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Fle
xib
ility
Cost
Bus ???
Taxi ??? Private cars
MaaS Bicycling
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Non-person transport with autonomous passenger cars
•Packages, letters, etc.
•Challenge the postal and delivery business
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Results
•More people can travel by car
•It is convenient to use time more efficiently in the car and hence travel longer
•A lot of empty car driving
–Parking, Mobility as a service, non-person transport with cars, freight
•Cheaper and more freight transport
•=> Increase in demand exceed increase in capacity
–Hyper congestion
•Unless road user charging
•Or other economic policies
32 08.11.2016
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Role of public transport
•Efficient land use capacity use for railways combined with flexible access/egress modes
–Bicycle
–Autonomous busses
–MaaS
33 8 November 2016
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
• http://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/tr/Documents/public-sector/EN_Digital-Age-TRANSPORTATION_16.07.2014.pdf
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There´s no silver bullet solution to the problem of gridlock – next generation urban transport systems will connect transportation modes, services, and technologies together in innovative new ways that pragmatically address a seemingly intractable problem
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Otto Anker Nielsen Transport DTU, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Smart mobility visions • The result of these innovations—and of the ecosystem of
creative players that have been drawn to transportation, from information technology companies to ridesharing pioneers to app makers—is that the mobility field will look very different going forward. It will be:
• Massively networked, with ubiquitous connectivity throughout the system
• Dynamically priced, so as to balance supply and demand
• User centred, taking into account users’ needs, priorities, data flows, and dynamic responses to conditions
• Integrated, so that users can move easily from point A to point B, regardless of mode, service provider, or time of day
• Reliant on new models of private-public collaboration, which take advantage of the increasingly diverse ecosystem of public, private, and non-profit entities that are working to meet the mobility challenges of the 21st century
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