Future of TV
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Transcript of Future of TV
The Future of Television
Mark Suster
PaidContent – November 2011
@msuster
So Interactive, Digital TV is Right Around the Corner?
Nobody Believes it Because We’ve Cried Wolf for 20 Years
This Has Led Our Industry to Become Frogs Boiling in Water
Metaphor: put a frog into boiling water and it jumps out, put it in cold water & slowly turn up temperature and it boils to death
“We Overestimate the Impact of Tech on 3-year Horizon & Underestimate on 10-
year” - Bill Gates
I Would Argue That the Massive Change in Television Will Accelerate in 2012
1. Massive decrease in costs of capturing & processing video
2. Significant penetration in broadband, increases in Wi-Fi
3. Huge advances in compression
4. Massively distributed advertising market
5. Decreasing traditional paychecks to creative talent
6. Consumer behavior has made Internet video a reality
Bundled TV Will be the Album of the Future
And The Same Forces that Killed the Album Will Kill “The Bundle”
1. Disruptive technology that breaks the distribution strangle hold of content
2. Massive costs reductions in capture, process & distribute
3. Consumer choice
YouTube is the New Comcast … And Notice the Change in Branding
And My Bet is that The Future Distributors Are Not Who Most TV
Execs Think
So Why Now?
Americans watch 5.3 hours of TV / Day
TVReading
< 1 Hour
5.3 Hours
Media Patterns
Online
3 Hours
It’s Not Just Dogs on Skateboards Anymore
A Disruptive Breed of Digital Content Producer Has Emerged
UGC Network TVYouTube TV
Pro
du
cti
on
C
osts
/
Min
ute
$100-400
$6,000-8,000
$50-100k
These 4 Companies Alone Doing > 3 Billion Video Views / Month
YouTube TV
Costs
/
Min
ute
With YouTube Content Distribution is Much More Predictable and Content
Producers Have a Direct Relationship with Viewers
ViewerViewer
Subscribers
Email Lists
Facebook Connect
YouTubeYouTubeProducerProducer
Youth Demo Already 1/3rd of Time Online Watching Video
Streaming Video
Other Surfing
And Revenue Becoming Substantive
How Mainstream? 86% of All Internet Watch Online Video
Aug 11
42 billion views
185 million viewers
228 videos / person
17 hours
91% of Households Still Pay for TV (91%)
This Market Disruption Will Be Enormous –
And It’s Accelerating Now
Don’t Be a Frog. Get Ahead of the Curve.
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Thank you