Future Fuel for Road Freight - LBST · 2019-03-20 · Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019...

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

CARA Think Tank meeting ldquoFuture fuels for heavy duty vehiclesrdquo

IFP Energies Nouvelles ∙ Solaize (Lyon) ∙ 6 March 2019

laquoFuture Fuel for Road Freightraquo Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison

of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks

Patrick R Schmidt ∙ Werner Weindorf ∙ LBST ∙ Munich

Jean-Christophe Lanoix ∙ Henri Bittel ∙ Hinicio ∙ ParisBrussels

2019-03-06 middot FINAL

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik I Introduction to the study and context

II Setting the scene

III Fuels amp infrastructures (well-to-tank)

IV Vehicle amp drivetrains (tank-to-wheel)

V Synthesis (well-to-wheel)

VI Recommendations for deployment

Structure

Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio

2

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

I Introduction

The study partners

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

laquoTruck CO2raquo study ndash A three partnerslsquo joint effort

Sponsor

Sounding Board

Regulatory

Strategy

Fuels amp drives

Techno-economics

Environment

4


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Strategic consultants specialized in sustainable energy and mobility

Long experience with policy makers public entities and industry

Multidisciplinary team approach engineers economists energy and transport policy experts

Long working relationship between our two cabinets with more than 30 joint assignments

LBST and HINICIO joined forces for this study


5

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Understanding todaylsquos picture

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Today the transport of goods in France is in majority

done by road

7

Road 88

Train 99 Boat 21

Breakdown of ton-km for terrestrial goods transport [ton-km 2016]

2018

-09-

25

Source Chiffres cleacutes du transport Edition 2018 Commissariat

geacuteneacuteral au deacuteveloppement durable Mars 2018


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Heavy duty vehicles are the elephant in the room

8

Passenger cars gasoline

13

Passenger cars diesel

43

LDV gasoline 2

LDV diesel 19

HDV diesel 22

2-wheelers 1

CO2 emissions from the transport sector in France [ - 2014]

2018

-09-

25

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of registered vehicles in France

Passenger vehicles LDV HDV

Source 1 CITEPA Inventaire des eacutemissions de polluants atmospheacuteriques et de gaz agrave

effet de serre en France April 2016 Source 2 Reacutepertoire statistique des veacutehicules routiers (RSVERO) Ministegravere de la

transition eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

The long-haul tractors are the biggest GHG

contributors


9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

lt25 km From25 to49 km

From50 to99 km

From100 to149 km

From150 to199 km

From200 to299 km

From300 kmto 399

km

From400 kmto 499

km

From500 to999 km

gt1000km

Th

ou

san

d t

on

-km

Goods transported by average daily distance and truck type [ton-km 2016]

Rigid Truck Tractor

2018

-09-

25

Long-haul (gt100km) tractors because

Tractors transport most goods

The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances (gt 100km)

Source Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Trucks have in average not become more fuel efficient

the range of fuel consumption has increased

10

146 101 74

46

684

581

464

367

92

271

426

567

0

25

50

75

100

2014 2015 2016 2017

Breakdown of tractor fleet by Euro classification

Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6

Source Comiteacute National Routier Enquecircte

longue distance 2017 April 2018


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fu

el

con

sum

pti

on

(l

die

sel

(10

0 k

m))

MAN TGS 18400 FLS LX


MAN TGX 18480 FLS

MAN 18520 FLS XLX

Scania R450 LA Highline



Scania R 580 LA Topline


Volvo FH 460 Globetrotter

Mercedes Axor 1843 LS

Mercedes Actros 1844 LS Megaspace



Mercedes Actros 1848 LS Streamspace

DAF FT XF 510 Super Spacecab

Average

Utilization 80

LBS

T

20

18

-10

-15

Image LBST Data Lastauto Omnibus

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

An increase in GHG emissions is possible if no

action is undertaken


11 Source Hinicio forecast Source for CAGR Trends in the truck amp trailer market market study Roland Berger August 2018

Source for 2017 vehicle registration Enquecircte transports routiers de marchandises (TRM) 2017 Ministegravere de la transition

eacutecologique et solidaire visited on 25092018

What impact on GHG emissions from

until 2030 if nothing is done

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors

Long-haulinter-urban tractors is the focus of this study

12

Classification SDES

Long-haul tractors because

Small fleet compared to other vehicles

The majority of the goods in France are transported on long-haul distances

The most GHG contributor in transport

Study objective

Determine the most robust fuelpowertrain options to achieve deep-dive GHG reduction


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Current EU and French environmental regulation in favour of zero or low carbon tractors

Short-term

ndash No regulatory framework at the EU level nor at the French national level is favouring the adoption of zero-emission long-haul tractors

Mid to long-term

ndash The fuel efficiency standard for HDVs

ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette

Only regulation implemented in the mid to long-

term will drive clean drivetrains


13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh

Euro standards for heavy-duty vehicles

CO (gkWh) Nox (gkWh)

HC (gkWh) Particles (gkWh)

Smoke (1m)

Current regulation

Euro emissions standards

Big benefit on local pollution

No impact on GHG emissions

Upcoming regulation

CO2 emission monitoring of trucks

New emissions standards for HDVs

-30 CO2 by 2030 (compared to 2019)

5 sales market share for low-carbon or zero emission trucks by 2025

20 by 2030

OEMs will need to sell LC or ZE trucks starting in 2025

14 Still in discussion between the parliament and the commission at the time of writing

Source TransportPolicynet European heavy-duty vehicles emissions visited on 26092018


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Renewable Energy Directive 2

14 of renewable fuel in transport energy consumption by 2030

Specific GHG emissions criterias for each type of fuels

- 70 GHG for renewable fuels of non-biological origin

- 65 GHG for biofuels

The recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2)

will be the biggest driver of change from 2023-25 onward


15

European targets

Methodology still to be determined by the European Commission by

delegated act as of writing of this study

For production installations starting their operations after 2021

Otherwise 60 compared to 94 gCO2MJ with installations starting

their operations after 2015 Otherwise 55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Should take into account GHG emissions

Effective measure to push clean vehicles n the road

Eg today it is more economical to operate a H2 (clean) fleet than pay road taxes in Switzerland

The Eurovignette directive aims at

Taking into account CO2 emission for the toll pricing

Reducing by 75 the toll cost for zero-emission vehicles

The Eurovignette will start pulling new powertrains onto

the market as of 2022-23


16

What about highway taxation of heavy duty vehicle circulation

The Eurovignette directive is still under heavy debate in the

Parliament on other topics than CO2 emissions so date of

implementation is still uncertain at the moment of writing

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Fuels amp powertrains investigated in this study


17

BEV Battery-Electric Vehicle

CH4 Methane

CNG Compressed Natural Gas

FCEV Fuel Cell-Electric Vehicle

H2 Hydrogen

ICE Internal Combustion Engine

LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

RE Renewable Electricity

Fuel Pathway Drivetrain

Ref

eren

ce

Diesel from crude oil EU mix fossil fuel comparator

ICE CNG LNG from natural gas

EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite

compressionliquefaction

Hydrogen from natural gas EU natural gas mix pipeline transport onsite steam-methane

reforming FCEV

Electricity French grid mix onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary

Low

C Diesel via power-to-liquid

(France domestic) Nuclear power Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining ICE

Ren

ewab

le

Diesel via power-to-liquid

(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining

ICE


(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) Fischer-Tropsch synthesis refining

Methane via power-to-CH4

(France domestic) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction


(import from MENA) RE mix (wind solar) methanation compressionliquefaction

Hydrogen via power-to-H2 RE mix (wind solar) onsite electrolysis FCEV

Electricity RE mix (wind solar) onsite buffer electricity storage BEV + catenary

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik Fundamental analysis for a strategic assessment of robust long-term truck propulsion options (2030) against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement (2050) For this short-term performance and opportunities (2020) are depicted and discussed on an equal basis

ASIF priority for mobility measure

ndash Avoid (sufficiency)

ndash Shift (modal split)

ndash Improve (efficiency)

ndash Fuel (renewable energy)

Costs are calculated on a full cost basis ie excluding taxes duties subsidies and inflation

Electricity-based (synthetic) fuels

ndash No biomass because of limited potential and competing uses)

ndash 100 renewable power mix from new capacities (wind solar)

ndash New nuclear capacity

ndash Low-temperature electrolysis (PEM alkaline)

ndash CO2 from air as carbon source (conservative assumption)

ndash Technology learning-curves are applied (world market)

Vehicles are assessed assuming a thriving world-market for each technology investigated (improved combustion engines fuel cells catenary pantograph)

Our study approach ndash What we did and what not

18

New capacities to cater

new electricity demands

from transport thus

avoiding competition in

stationary sector and no

lsquocarbon leakagersquo


Focus efficiency + renewables

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

III Fuels amp Infrastructures

well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Development of cost of wind and PV electricity (world)

20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh

New UK feed-in tariff

New France Existing France

Nuclear power plants

(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)

Chart IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 Abu Dhabi 2018 ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik Production profiles of wind and PV are very complementary

Conservative full annual equivalent load hours assumed in this study

Electricity generation PVwind hybrid 2020


21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -

OampM euro(kWpyr) 10 56 - 10 56 -

Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019

Fuel supply chain | Diesel

22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il

Extraction of crude oil Crude oil transport Seaport terminal +

oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl

ear Nuclear power (France domestic) Distri

butio

n

H2 storage Water electrolysis

Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture

(DAC) CO2 liquefaction

amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE

Renewable electricity (France domestic)

Production in MENA

Production in France

PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis

Refinery Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik PEM electrolyser technology is assumed in this study

Efficiency 59 LHV in 2020 =gt 71 LHV by 2030

CAPEX

ndash Learning curve based on global electrolyser market

ndash 5 MWe class in 2015 based on the average of 5 quotations from manufacturers and 1 study [DLR et al 2015] 100 MWe class based on [DLR et al 2015]

Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik Connected with a 500 MWe

electrolysis plant

Capacity

ndash 2020 197 MWPtL


Based on data in

ndash [Becker et al 2012]

ndash [Koumlnig et al 2015]

Cost data adjusted using the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI)

24

Fischer-Tropsch plant

CAPEX (million euro) 2020 2030

Burner 3407 4100

FT reactor 2123 2555

RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579

Distillation 178 203

Wax hydrocracker 1635 1861

Distillate hydrotreater 914 1041

Naphtha hydrotreater 250 285

Catalytic reformerplatformer 1346 1533

C5C6 isomerization 224 255

Total installed cost 10992 12869

Total direct costs 12311 14413

Engineering amp design 1600 1874

Construction 1723 2018

Legal and contractor fees 1108 1297

Project contingency 1847 2162

Total indirect costs 6278 7351

CAPEX total 18589 21764 LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Power-to-liquid (PtL) plant 2030

Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh

CO2 from air 0341 kg

CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +

Image Climeworks 2018

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Fuel supply chain | Methane via PtCH4

26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station

CH4 compression at CNG station

CNG dispenser

NG storage

NG import pipeline 2400 km

NG distribution 500 km MENA region (example)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)

Same system setup for MENA

as for domestic production in France

Power line

H2 storage Electrolyse

Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Fuel supply chain | Hydrogen (CGH2)

27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2

H2 refuelling station

NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2

H2 storage Water electrolysis H2 dispenser

H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash poles) per road direction

Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road (see right container)

Stationary electricity storage at each feed-in point for grid integration (2030)

Catenary infrastructure

28

Source Ministegravere de llsquoEnvironnement Concept drsquoautoroute eacutelectrique ndash Eacutevaluation socioeacuteconomique

January 2017

Photo PSLBST Groszlig-Doumllln 2013

Graphic BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur Ermittlung der

Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017


Graphic LBST derived from BMVI Machbarkeitsstudie zur

Ermittlung der Potentiale des Hybrid-Oberleitungs-Lkw Febrsquo2017

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Fuel supply chain | Electricity for catenary (CEV)

29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV

RE mix (windsolar) France (new capacities) Charger at home base

Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik Catenary infrastructure including stationary electricity storage in 2030

Catenary electric vehicle (CEV) recharger at home base

ndash CAPEX ~31000 euroCEV

ndash OampM 3400 euroyr [ABB 2017]

Total cumulated CEV infrastructure investment euro38 billion by 2030


30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)

CAPEX total without electricity storage euro(km motorway) 1669250 4089250

billion euro 035 159

Required power electricity storage GW - 26

CAPEX electricity storage eurokWh 726 336

eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175

CPEX catenary infrastructure total billion euro 035 334

LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Crude oil Piped NG Piped NG SMRcentral

SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic

Diesel CNG LNG CGH2 Electricity PtL diesel PtL diesel PtCH4 as CNG PtCH4 as LNG CGH2 Electricity

Reference Nuclear Renewable

Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)

Taxes on fossil dieselCNGLNG

Reference (gasoline amp diesel from crude oil)

Refueling stationcatenary infrastructure

CH4 liquefaction

Distribution of final fuel via truck

Large-scale gas storage including compressor

CH4 or H2 pipeline grid

Synthesis

CO2 purification amp storage

H2 storage including compressor

H2 or CH4 pipeline or maritime FT diesl transport to EU

H2 production

Electricity including transport amp distribution

2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission

Fuel specific full costs 2020

31


Crude oil price

60 US$bbl [IEA 2018 SDS]

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32


Crude oil prices (US$bbl)

120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Vehicle amp Drivetrains

tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik Tractor-semitrailer

Maximum allowable gross weight 40 t

Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma

Truck | Basic assumptions

34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik Two overhead wires (+ ndash) per road direction

Electricity feed-in station every 2-3 km along the road

Performance

ndash 350 kWe electric motor

ndash 200 kWhe battery

ndash 140-160 km autonomy without catenary

Invest [Moultak et al 2017]

ndash 2020 178000 eurotruck


Home base charger (overnight)

ndash 50 kW

ndash 31000 eurotruck

Truck | Catenary-battery-electric vehicle (CEV)

35

Source Oumlko-Institut Oberleitungs-Lkw im Kontext weiterer Antriebs- und Energieversorgungsoptionen fuumlr

den Straszligenguumlterfernverkehr ndash Erster Teilbericht bdquoStratONldquo 13092018



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik Comparison of existing FCEV with assumptions in this study

Truck | Fell cell electric vehicle (FCEV)

36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)

Nikola Two Nikola Tre Toyota

(alpha)

This study

2020

Region - CH USA EU USA EU

Maximum gross weight t 34 36 36 40

Capacity H2 tank kgH2 31 (net) 60-80 40 77

Pressure H2 tank MPa 35 70 70 70

Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050

Fuel consumption kg H2100km 75-80 667-800 1036-165 733

MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245

Production start - (2019) 20222023 20222023 2020

Depending on the transport capacity utilisation (16-27 t)

Based on [Moultak et al 2017]

LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Truck | Fuel consumption non-CO2 GHG emissions

37

2020 Fuel consumption Non-CO2-GHG

MJkm kWhkm lDE100 km g CH4km g N2Okm

Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16

Reference LBST based on [Moultak et al 2017]

Efficiency package according

to [Moultak et al 2017]

eg aerodynamic

improvements low rolling-

resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Truck | CAPEX assumptions


38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck

Vehicle CAPEX degression Diesel CNG LNG

FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07

Image interpolation LBST Data [Moultak et al 2017 p18]

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik All costs are given without inflation based on volume assumptions

Truck | Cost assumptions

39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089

CNG Otto cycle 154000

LNG Otto cycle 142000

LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000

CEV incl 200 kWh battery 200 eurokWh 178000

2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26

Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019 Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik middot Hinicio CAPEX data [Moultak et al 2017 p18] OampM cost data [CNR 2018]

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


SMR onsiteFrench gridmix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic

Diesel ICE CNG ICE LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV

PtL dieselICE

PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2 FCEV ElectricityCEV


GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank

2030Renewable fuels are CO2 neutral

LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission

Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 2030

41

GHG reduction gt90 in general

gtgt95 in case of electric propulsion

13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission

Well-to-wheel fuel costs 2020


42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

CEV plusmn10 vehicle stock

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE

PtL diesel ICE PtCH4 as CNG ICE PtCH4 as LNG ICE CGH2FCEV

ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)

Road tolls and axle taxes

Fuel and Adblue costs

Vehicle costs (CAPEX maintenance)

Overhead insurances

Long distance travelling expenses

Salary vehicle driver

2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission

Well-to-wheel full costs 2020

44

Fuel costs comprise

primary energy (incl

fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road

toll are the same for

all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45


Total cost of ownership

(TCO) of alternative

options are converging

by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

lsquoCeteris paribuslsquo deployment of alternative fuelspowertrains

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik Vehicle stock development is based on tractor-truck scenario in France

Same deployment rate for all alternative powertrains (ceteris paribus)

Continuous stock roll-over ie no early force-out of legacy vehicles

Development of vehicle stock

47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229

Legacy vehicles operated with

Diesel from crude oil

143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091

of vehicles going out because of

age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505

of vehicles going in

(replacement + growth)

16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570

Share of alternative vehicles in

new vehicles (ceteris paribus

CNG or LNG or FCEV or CEV)

7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98

of alternative fuel-powered new

vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236

Stock of alternative fuel-powered

vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)

Diesel via PtL Nuclear France

Diesel via PtL Renewable France

Diesel via PtL Renewable MENA

CNG via PtG Renewable France

CNG via PtG Renewable MENA

LNG via PtG Renewable France

LNG via PtG Renewable MENA

CGH2 via PtG for FCEV

Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Ceteris paribus based on the vehicle stock in France (~210000 in 2030 thereof long-haul ~150000)

Share of PtL diesel based on same market development as for the fuels for alternative drivetrains

Renewablenuclear electricity demand (per year)

48

~15 of electricity

generation in France

in 2017 (529 TWh)


Only half of RE power

capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL

Only 14th of RE power

plant capacities needed

compared to PtCH4 PtL

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019

Diesel via PtL NuclearFrance

Diesel via PtLRenewable France

Diesel via PtLRenewable MENA

CNG via PtGRenewable France

CNG via PtGRenewable MENALB

ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future

Past GHG emission reductions mainly due to ndash fewer tractor trucks

ndash decreasing annual mileage and

ndash slight reductions in fuel consumption

GHG emission savings until 2030 ndash further reductions in ICE fuel consumption

ndash introduction of renewable fuels

Results from explorative and non-disruptive lsquoceteris paribusrsquo analyses

ndash All fuelpowertrain combinations analysed in this study could have the potential for GHG emission reductions of between 76-80 2020 until 2030

ndash While 98 of new vehicles in 2030 come with alternative fuelpropulsion about 75 of the vehicle fleet and fuel consumed are alternative fuels and powertrains only

ndash Remaining GHG emissions in 2030 are due to legacy vehicles in the fleet using fossil diesel


49

Absolute GHG emissions lsquoceteris paribusrsquo

GHG emissions reduced by ~80

98 of new trucks equipped with

alternative fuelspowertrains

25 is legacy stock (Diesel)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Assumed share of alternative fuel powertrain combinations with new vehicle registrations

LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)

Specific investment PtX plant








FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12

The cumulated investments comprise the following elements

ndash Renewable power plants

ndash PtX production plants

ndash Alternative fuel infrastructure for transport amp distribution

ndash Vehicles (incl re-investments for vehicle end-of-life replacements)

Learning curves assumed for key components ie the 1st PtX production plant is more expensive than the nth one

Evolutionary change in fleet composition ie no active phase-out of conventional vehicles before its end of usable lifetime

The calculation is done independent from who is investing (investor) or where investments are placed (geography)


50

Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo | Methodology

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles

Refueling stations CEV infrastructure

CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants

Electricity generation

Steam reforming plants

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030


Cumulated investments lsquoceteris paribusrsquo until 2030

51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Conclusions from well-to-wheel analyses

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik Cost of truck powertrains is converging series production provided

Cost of new fossil nuclear and renewable power is converging

Cost of imported synthetic fuels (PtCH4 PtL) are ~20 lower than domestic

Cumulative investments seem manageable for all options

Fuel cell and catenary trucks offer zero GHG and zero pollutant emissions

Fuel cell truck propulsion

ndash Low cumulative investment among renewable options

ndash Shares technology basis and infrastructure with other H2 uses

Catenary system

ndash Exclusive to (relatively few) long-distance trucks (and possibly buses)

ndash Competing with rail freight (and possibly public rail transport)

ndash Ideal for frequent point-to-point relations

Promising fuelpowertrain combinations further investigated in this study

Hydrogen FCEV as universal solution for HDVs

Battery-CEV as option for dedicated fleets


53

Criteria other than costs are of

decisive strategic importance eg

zero pollutant emission energy

demand universal infrastructure


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward

High-level market introduction strategy for FCEV and CEV heavy duty tractors

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Identify short-term barriers hindering market introduction of FCEVs and CEV

Define a market entry strategy for FCEV and CEV trucks

Infrastructure developers

Fleets

Provide policy recommendations for supporting the introduction of FCEV and CEV trucks at the France and EU level

ndash In the short term (push and pull measures)

ndash In the long run (pull measures only)

Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Reaching a critical size of fleet is a key challenge

to ensure profitability


Barriers Description

Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV

10-15 50-60 min vehicles per site 10km of lines

3-4 Meuro Investment per site 10km of lines

17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Costs are a major barrier today for fleet operators



Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV

4 3 pilot projects Worldwide

+36 compared to diesel in 2020 +33


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Nikola and Hyundai are the only companies that have

announced commercial plans for trucks in Europe



OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV

Positioned truck OEMs

Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Who will be the first movers


59

What type of fleet operators should infrastructure developers target first

Key success

factors

Description

Types of fleets For FCEVs captive fleets tohellip

Lower the infrastructure entry barrier (less stations to be

deployed)

Long-term visibility for the infrastructure operator

For CEVs ONLY point-to-point logistics

Size of fleets Very large fleets for

A lower fuel cost

A lower vehicle cost (OEM visibility on demand)

A lower total industrialization costs (society-level)

A higher availability and lower maintenance costs

Visibility The fleets exposed to societal pressures

Types of goods

transported

Transport of high added-value products (gt35000 eurot) will be least

sensitive to costs increase

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Hydrogen infrastructure developers need to pursue

immediate economies of scale to reduce costs


60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness

Focus on large fleets

Procure the electricity from

the grid at the start

Reaching

acceptable

profitability levels

Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW

Production costs of hydrogen in

function of size of plant

Source Hinicio figure and Hinicio copyright

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Only large fleets should be targeted by infrastructure

developers in the introduction phase


61

2020-2025

Very large fleet

operators with private

infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium

fleet operators using

the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030

Small fleet operators

and individuals using

the widely available

public infrastructure

x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15

Addressing very large

captive fleets with

private infrastructure

allowing for economies

of scales

Semi captive fleets

Large and medium semi-

captive fleets relying on

private infrastructure and

leveraging the first public

infrastructure on specific

routes

Going mainstream


using the widely

available infrastructure

and buying commercially

available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts

Source Hinicio copyright

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

The CEV infrastructure business case is very complex


62

Key success factors Description

Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness

Secure a critical mass of 5 to 6 vehicles per km of

catenary line

Securing long-term supply

contracts

Association of many (gt5-10) actors

Long-term supply contract(s) with all the fleet

operators

Reaching acceptable profitability

levels

Stacking up revenue streams grid services other

types of HDVs (buses rigid trucks)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Market push tools are needed in the short term


63

Short term policy recommendations

Long-term policy

recommendations

1 Market push instruments

Subsidies

Exemptions from taxes fees road tolls etc

2 Infrastructure de-risking instruments

Take-or-pay contracts

Public co-financing

3

Market pull instruments

Carbon pricing

Emissions restrictions (low-emission zones emissions requirements or targets road

and axle taxes linked to emissions)

Specific mandates for renewable energy content

Zero-emission vehicle quotas

4 Allowing for complementary revenues

Gas grid injections (for FCEV only)

Enabling participation of all consumers to all balancing services amp markets

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Long-haul tractors are the biggest greenhouse gas emission contributors

Their fuel efficiency in average has hardly change over the past 10 years

There may be more tractors on the road by 2030

FCEV and CEV are the most robust fuelpowertrain solutions

Market introduction strategies will naturally focus on large fleets in the start

Regulatory ldquopullrdquo measures (CO2 taxes will start favour zero-emission tractors starting 2023-25 so ldquopushrdquo (subsidies exemptions) measures will be necessary at the start

Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you

LBST and Hinicio are grateful for the financial support provided

by Fondation Tuck in the framework of laquoThe Future of Energyraquo

scientific program in support of a successful energy transition


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team

Patrick Schmidt (Dipl-Ing)

T +49-89-60811036

E PatrickSchmidtLBSTde

Werner Weindorf (Dipl-Ing)

T +49-89-60811034

E WernerWeindorfLBSTde

LBST Ludwig-Boumllkow-Systemtechnik GmbH

Daimlerstr 15 85521 MunichOttobrunn Germany

wwwlbstde

Hinicio SA Paris office

Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66

Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Dipl-Ing)

T +33-1-41430630

E Jean-ChristopheLanoixhiniciocom

Henri Bittel (Dipl-Ing)

T +32-470-721509

E HenriBittelhiniciocom


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik bbl Barrel


CAPEX Capital Expenditures

CEV Catenary-Electric Vehicle

CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide

DAC Direct Air Capture

E e Electricity(-based)


FT Fischer-Tropsch

GHG Greenhouse Gases

h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour

LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity

LHV Lower Heating Value


MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt

NPP Nuclear Power Plant

OampM Operation amp Maintenance

OPEX Operating Expenditures

PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane

PtH2 Power-to-Hydrogen

PtL Power-to-Liquids


RWGS Reverse Water Gas Shift

th thermal

WHR Waste-Heat Recovery

yr year

Acronyms amp abbreviations

68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) | Definition

69

TRL definition according to EU Horizon2020 [EC 2017]

1 Basic principles observed

2 Technology concept formulated

3 Experimental proof of concept

4 Technology validated in lab

5 Technology validated in relevant environment

6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment

7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment

8 System complete and qualified

9 Actual system proven in operational environment

[EC 2017] European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 ndash Work Programme 2018-2020 General Annexes G Technology readiness levels (TRL)

2017 httpseceuropaeuresearchparticipantsdatarefh2020otherwp2018-2020annexesh2020-wp1820-annex-g-trl_enpdf


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik Patrick Schmidt Werner Weindorf Tetyana Raksha Reinhold Wurster (LBST) Henri Bittel Jean-Christophe Lanoix (Hinicio)

Future Fuel for Road Freight ndash Techno-Economic amp Environmental Performance Comparison of GHG-Neutral Fuels amp Drivetrains for Heavy-Duty Trucks

An expertise for Fondation Tuck Munich Brussels Paris February 2019

=gt Study available for download from Fondation Tuck website soon

Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik I Introduction to the study and context


III Fuels amp infrastructures (well-to-tank)

IV Vehicle amp drivetrains (tank-to-wheel)

V Synthesis (well-to-wheel)

VI Recommendations for deployment

Structure


2

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

I Introduction

The study partners

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Sponsor

Sounding Board

Regulatory

Strategy

Fuels amp drives

Techno-economics

Environment

4


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







5

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


done by road

7

Road 88

Train 99 Boat 21


2018

-09-

25




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


8


13


43

LDV gasoline 2

LDV diesel 19

HDV diesel 22

2-wheelers 1


2018

-09-

25

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


contributors


9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


From50 to99 km

From100 to149 km

From150 to199 km

From200 to299 km

From300 kmto 399

km

From400 kmto 499

km

From500 to999 km

gt1000km

Th

ou

san

d t

on

-km


Rigid Truck Tractor

2018

-09-

25






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



10

146 101 74

46

684

581

464

367

92

271

426

567

0

25

50

75

100

2014 2015 2016 2017






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fu

el

con

sum

pti

on

(l

die

sel

(10

0 k

m))



MAN TGX 18480 FLS

MAN 18520 FLS XLX













Average

Utilization 80

LBS

T

20

18

-10

-15


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors


12

Classification SDES





Study objective



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

I Introduction

The study partners

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Sponsor

Sounding Board

Regulatory

Strategy

Fuels amp drives

Techno-economics

Environment

4


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







5

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


done by road

7

Road 88

Train 99 Boat 21


2018

-09-

25




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


8


13


43

LDV gasoline 2

LDV diesel 19

HDV diesel 22

2-wheelers 1


2018

-09-

25

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


contributors


9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


From50 to99 km

From100 to149 km

From150 to199 km

From200 to299 km

From300 kmto 399

km

From400 kmto 499

km

From500 to999 km

gt1000km

Th

ou

san

d t

on

-km


Rigid Truck Tractor

2018

-09-

25






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



10

146 101 74

46

684

581

464

367

92

271

426

567

0

25

50

75

100

2014 2015 2016 2017






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fu

el

con

sum

pti

on

(l

die

sel

(10

0 k

m))



MAN TGX 18480 FLS

MAN 18520 FLS XLX













Average

Utilization 80

LBS

T

20

18

-10

-15


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors


12

Classification SDES





Study objective



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Sponsor

Sounding Board

Regulatory

Strategy

Fuels amp drives

Techno-economics

Environment

4


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







5

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


done by road

7

Road 88

Train 99 Boat 21


2018

-09-

25




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


8


13


43

LDV gasoline 2

LDV diesel 19

HDV diesel 22

2-wheelers 1


2018

-09-

25

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


contributors


9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


From50 to99 km

From100 to149 km

From150 to199 km

From200 to299 km

From300 kmto 399

km

From400 kmto 499

km

From500 to999 km

gt1000km

Th

ou

san

d t

on

-km


Rigid Truck Tractor

2018

-09-

25






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



10

146 101 74

46

684

581

464

367

92

271

426

567

0

25

50

75

100

2014 2015 2016 2017






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fu

el

con

sum

pti

on

(l

die

sel

(10

0 k

m))



MAN TGX 18480 FLS

MAN 18520 FLS XLX













Average

Utilization 80

LBS

T

20

18

-10

-15


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors


12

Classification SDES





Study objective



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







5

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


done by road

7

Road 88

Train 99 Boat 21


2018

-09-

25




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


8


13


43

LDV gasoline 2

LDV diesel 19

HDV diesel 22

2-wheelers 1


2018

-09-

25

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


contributors


9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


From50 to99 km

From100 to149 km

From150 to199 km

From200 to299 km

From300 kmto 399

km

From400 kmto 499

km

From500 to999 km

gt1000km

Th

ou

san

d t

on

-km


Rigid Truck Tractor

2018

-09-

25






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



10

146 101 74

46

684

581

464

367

92

271

426

567

0

25

50

75

100

2014 2015 2016 2017






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fu

el

con

sum

pti

on

(l

die

sel

(10

0 k

m))



MAN TGX 18480 FLS

MAN 18520 FLS XLX













Average

Utilization 80

LBS

T

20

18

-10

-15


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors


12

Classification SDES





Study objective



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


done by road

7

Road 88

Train 99 Boat 21


2018

-09-

25




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


8


13


43

LDV gasoline 2

LDV diesel 19

HDV diesel 22

2-wheelers 1


2018

-09-

25

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


contributors


9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


From50 to99 km

From100 to149 km

From150 to199 km

From200 to299 km

From300 kmto 399

km

From400 kmto 499

km

From500 to999 km

gt1000km

Th

ou

san

d t

on

-km


Rigid Truck Tractor

2018

-09-

25






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



10

146 101 74

46

684

581

464

367

92

271

426

567

0

25

50

75

100

2014 2015 2016 2017






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fu

el

con

sum

pti

on

(l

die

sel

(10

0 k

m))



MAN TGX 18480 FLS

MAN 18520 FLS XLX













Average

Utilization 80

LBS

T

20

18

-10

-15


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors


12

Classification SDES





Study objective



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


done by road

7

Road 88

Train 99 Boat 21


2018

-09-

25




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


8


13


43

LDV gasoline 2

LDV diesel 19

HDV diesel 22

2-wheelers 1


2018

-09-

25

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


contributors


9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


From50 to99 km

From100 to149 km

From150 to199 km

From200 to299 km

From300 kmto 399

km

From400 kmto 499

km

From500 to999 km

gt1000km

Th

ou

san

d t

on

-km


Rigid Truck Tractor

2018

-09-

25






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



10

146 101 74

46

684

581

464

367

92

271

426

567

0

25

50

75

100

2014 2015 2016 2017






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fu

el

con

sum

pti

on

(l

die

sel

(10

0 k

m))



MAN TGX 18480 FLS

MAN 18520 FLS XLX













Average

Utilization 80

LBS

T

20

18

-10

-15


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors


12

Classification SDES





Study objective



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


8


13


43

LDV gasoline 2

LDV diesel 19

HDV diesel 22

2-wheelers 1


2018

-09-

25

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


contributors


9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


From50 to99 km

From100 to149 km

From150 to199 km

From200 to299 km

From300 kmto 399

km

From400 kmto 499

km

From500 to999 km

gt1000km

Th

ou

san

d t

on

-km


Rigid Truck Tractor

2018

-09-

25






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



10

146 101 74

46

684

581

464

367

92

271

426

567

0

25

50

75

100

2014 2015 2016 2017






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fu

el

con

sum

pti

on

(l

die

sel

(10

0 k

m))



MAN TGX 18480 FLS

MAN 18520 FLS XLX













Average

Utilization 80

LBS

T

20

18

-10

-15


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors


12

Classification SDES





Study objective



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


contributors


9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


From50 to99 km

From100 to149 km

From150 to199 km

From200 to299 km

From300 kmto 399

km

From400 kmto 499

km

From500 to999 km

gt1000km

Th

ou

san

d t

on

-km


Rigid Truck Tractor

2018

-09-

25






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



10

146 101 74

46

684

581

464

367

92

271

426

567

0

25

50

75

100

2014 2015 2016 2017






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fu

el

con

sum

pti

on

(l

die

sel

(10

0 k

m))



MAN TGX 18480 FLS

MAN 18520 FLS XLX













Average

Utilization 80

LBS

T

20

18

-10

-15


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors


12

Classification SDES





Study objective



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



10

146 101 74

46

684

581

464

367

92

271

426

567

0

25

50

75

100

2014 2015 2016 2017






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fu

el

con

sum

pti

on

(l

die

sel

(10

0 k

m))



MAN TGX 18480 FLS

MAN 18520 FLS XLX













Average

Utilization 80

LBS

T

20

18

-10

-15


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors


12

Classification SDES





Study objective



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors


12

Classification SDES





Study objective



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study focus

Heavy duty

vehicles

City buses

Coaches

Rigid trucks

36t lt x lt 60t

61t lt x lt 109t

110t lt x lt 190t

191t lt x lt 210t

211t lt x lt 260t

gt261t

Tractors


12

Classification SDES





Study objective



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Short-term


Mid to long-term


ndash the RED 2

ndash Eurovignette




13

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

05

1

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Sm

oke

(1

m)

gk

Wh




Smoke (1m)

Current regulation




Upcoming regulation





20 by 2030





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik









15

European targets






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik










16





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



17


CH4 Methane



H2 Hydrogen





Ref

eren

ce






reforming FCEV


Low



Ren

ewab

le



ICE









LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

















18



from transport thus






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


well-to-tank

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


20

LCOE 2017

90 ctkWh

LCOE 2017

63 ctkWh




(1 US$ ~ 1 euro)



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





21

2020 2030

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid

plant

PV Wind

(onshore)

Hybrid plant

CAPEX eurokWp 750 1570 - 486 1437 -


Equiv full

load period

heqyr 1340 3360 4465 1340 3360 4465

PVwind

share

- - 5050 - - 5050

PVwind

overlap

- - 5 - - 5

Total ctkWh 48 42

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



22

Refinery

DIESEL

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Diesel

Die

sel

fro

m c

rud

e o

il


oil pipeline 500 km

OIL

Crude Oil

Diesel

Diesel

PtL

Die

sel

French

nucl


butio

n


Fischer-Tropsch

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

PtL

Die

sel

Fr

ench

RE


Production in MENA


PtL

Die

sel

M

EN

A

Power line

Water electrolysis


CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

H2 storage

Maritime transport

3400 km

Diesel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



CAPEX



Water electrolysis

23 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve c

ap

aci

ty (

MW

e) World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

PEX

(euro

kW

e)

100 MWe

5 MWe

LBST

20

18

-11

-15

This study


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow


electrolysis plant

Capacity



Based on data in




24



Burner 3407 4100


RWGS 406 458

PSA 508 579















T

2018

-11-

19


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


Electrolysis

(PEM)

Fischer-Tropsch

(FT) synthesis

Hydrocracking

Isomerisation

Distillation

H2

14972 kWh

Syncrude

H2

Reverse Water

Gas Shift (RWGS)

Water 0246 kg

CO

CO2

Electricity

20785 kWh

Electricity

00283 kWh

CO2 capture amp

liquefaction

Electricity

01555 kWh


CO2 storage

Diesel

Kerosene

Gasoline

Water

H2

Heat 03259 kWh

(225degC)

H2

sto

rag

e

25

1 kWh

Water Gases

Koumlnig et al 2015

Electricity

00453 kWh

CO2 0341 kg

Heat

Boiler for RWGS

(T = 900degC)

LBS

T 2

018

-11-

22

H2

Heat 05968 kWh

(ge95degC)

Heat 01637 kWh

(60degC)

Heat

01072 kWh

PtL = 41

CO2 0086 kg


- +

+ +


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


26

LNG station

LNG dispenser

LNG

L NG L NG L NG

CH4 liquefaction

at LNG station

LNG

LNG storage

CNG station


CNG dispenser

NG storage



Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4 (

imp

ort

fro

m M

EN

A)



Power line


Methanation

Electricity from RE

(France domestic)

Meth

ane v

ia P

tCH

4

(Fra

nce

do

mest

ic)

CGH2

CO2

Direct Air Capture


amp storage

LBST 2019-03-06

France domestic


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


27

Hyd

rog

en f

rom

NG

H2 storage

H2


NG distribution

pipeline 500 km

EU natural gas (NG)

mix

NG transport

pipeline 4000 km

CGH2

LBS

T

2018

-10-

30

Steam methane

reformer (SMR)

H2 dispenser

Hyd

rog

en v

ia P

tH2


H2

Power line

RE mix (windsolar)

France

CGH2


LBS

T

2018

-10-

30


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





28


January 2017







LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


29

Electricity storage

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m g

rid

mix

Fra

nce

fo

r C

EV

French grid mix

Transmission

Distri

butio

n

Distribution

CEV

LBS

T

2018

-11-

06

+ - - -

+ + +

-

Catenary

Ele

ctri

city

fro

m R

E f

or

CEV


Truck home base


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow







30

Unit 2020 (211 km) 2030 (3900 km)





eurokWe 1451 672

billion euro - 175


LBS

T

2018

-12-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


31


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurol

die

sel e

q)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


32



120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


tank-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Payload 27 t

Lifetime 9 yr

Mileage 114100 kma


34


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



Performance








ndash 50 kW



35





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



36

Unit ESORO

(Hyundai)


(alpha)

This study

2020





Range km 375-400 750-1200 500-1200 241-386 1050


MJLHVkm 99 80-96 124-199 88

kWhLHVkm 275 222-267 345-552 245




LBS

T

2018

-12-

18


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


37



Diesel 120 333 334 0024 0073

CNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG Otto cycle 140 389 390 0778 0070

LNG HPDI 130 361 362 0025 0079

FCEV 88 245 246 0000 0000

CEV 53 147 148 0000 0000



Diesel 90 250 251 0018 0055

CNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG Otto cycle 110 306 307 0612 0055

LNG HPDI 100 278 279 0020 0061

FCEV 76 211 212 0000 0000

CEV 45 125 125 0000 0000

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19

LBS

T

2018

-11-

19


-26

-56

-14

-16




eg aerodynamic


resistant tires

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



38

y = 372785333x3 - 2260341780000x2 + 4568443373866750x -

3077804522093060000Rsup2 = 10000000

y = 721520000x2 - 2930092720000x + 2976236629700080

Rsup2 = 09990950

y = 631330x2 - 2560403910x + 2597351596350

Rsup2 = 09994

y = 43291200x2 - 175744234000x + 178376654625000

Rsup2 = 099925

y = 360760000x2 - 1464757752000x + 1486929881219980

Rsup2 = 0989905

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

eurot

ruck


FCEV CEV

LBST

20

18-

11-

07


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow



39

CAPEX

(euro)

OampM

(eurokm)

Overhead

insurance

eurokm)

Driver Salary

amp expenses

(eurokm)

Road toll amp

axle taxes

(eurokm)

2020

Diesel 116000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 167000

FCEV 186000


2030

Diesel 129000

0105 0195 0365+0086 0089



LNG HPDI 162000

FCEV 145000


LBS

T

2018

-11-

26


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

IV Synthesis

well-to-wheel

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE



GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(g C

O2

eq

km

)

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank


LBST

20

18

-11

-19

Zero emission


41



13 mgkm

radioactive waste


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



42

Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

000

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

100


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic



Fue

l co

sts

(eurok

m)




CH4 liquefaction




Synthesis




H2 production


2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission



43


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

59

15 16

34

6360

35

52

35

55

38 36

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2020

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


44

Fuel costs comprise


fuel conversion

efficiency) and

depreciation of the

conversion plant

Salary overhead

insurance and road


all pathways


Crude oil price


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

36 7 8

26

3531

17

26

16

29

1916

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

000

020

040

060

080

100

120

140

160

180

200


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Tru

ckin

g co

sts

(eurok

m)




Overhead insurances



2030

LBST

20

18

-12

-20

Zero emission


45





by 2030 (full-scale

deployment of each

option provided)


120 (15 year max)

72 [IEA 2018 SDS]

40 (15 year min)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





47


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


(long-haul total)

144650 144493 144554 144805 145222 145784 146474 147276 148176 149163 150229



143462 141189 137579 131916 123686 112868 99921 85490 70141 54262 38091


age (9 years avrg)

16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505 16505



16505 16348 16566 16756 16921 17067 17194 17306 17405 17492 17570




7 13 22 35 51 67 79 88 93 96 98


vehicles

1189 2116 3672 5914 8646 11381 13637 15232 16250 16866 17236


vehicles

1189 3304 6976 12890 21536 32916 46553 61785 78035 94902 112137

LBS

T

2018

-12-

20

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Ele

ctri

city

de

man

d (

TWh

yr)









Electricity for CEV

LBST

20

18

-12

-20




48

~15 of electricity


in 2017 (529 TWh)



capacities needed

versus PtCH4 PtL




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

qy

r)

Until 2019






ST 2

01

8-1

2-2

0

Past Future











49






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


LBST

201

8-1

2-20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Spe

cifi

c in

vest

me

nt

PtX

pla

nt

(eurok

Wfi

nal

fu

el)









FCEV

LBST

201

8-1

2-12










50


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


SMRonsite

Frenchgrid mix

Francedomestic

Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

MENA Francedomestic

Francedomestic


PtL dieselICE


ElectricityCEV


Cu

mu

lati

ve in

vest

me

nt

(bill

ion

euro)

Vehicles


CH4 liquefaction

Local H2 grid

PtX plants



LBST

20

18

-12

-20

2030



51

~35 of GDP

France in 2017

(2292 billion euro)


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow









Catenary system








53






LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

VI The way forward


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Fleets




Key questions


55

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





Infrastruc-

ture

business

case

No visibility on

demand

High resulting

fuel cost if low

utilisation

factor

High

investment

56

FCEV CEV



17 Meuro

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




Vehicle

technology

Lack of

maturity

(technology

risk)

High TCO

High Purchase

price 57

FCEV CEV




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik





OEM and

value chain

lack of

readiness

No commercial

availability

No visibility on

demand for

OEMs

High investment

needed

Maintenance of

vehicles High

costs and lack of

reliability for low

volumes 58

FCEV CEV


Commercial plans

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



59


Key success

factors

Description



deployed)




A lower fuel cost





Types of goods

transported



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




60

Key success

factors

Description

Securing long-

term supply

contracts

Long-term supply

contract(s)

Ensuring fuel

costs

competitiveness




Reaching

acceptable


Stack up revenue

streams

0 5 10 15 20 25

eurok

g

MW




LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik




61

2020-2025

Very large fleet


infrastructure

2025-2030

Large and medium


the first public or

their private

infrastructure

gt2030





x 50-1000 x 15-50

x 1-15


captive fleets with



of scales

Semi captive fleets






routes

Going mainstream


using the widely



available tractors

Siz

e of

flee

ts


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



62


Ensuring fuel costs

competitiveness


catenary line


contracts



operators


levels



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik



63


Long-term policy

recommendations


Subsidies




Public co-financing

3


Carbon pricing








LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik







Take-away messages


64

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

65

Thank you





LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

Study team


T +49-89-60811036



T +49-89-60811034




wwwlbstde


Street Paris France

wwwhiniciocom

66


T +33-1-41430630



T +32-470-721509



LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik

ANNEX

LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





CH4 Methane


CO Carbon Monoxide




FT Fischer-Tropsch


h hour

H2 Hydrogen


kWh Kilowatt hour




MJ Mega joule

MW Megawatt









th thermal


yr year


68


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow

systemtechnik


69














LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


LBSTde

ludwig boumllkow





Reference

70


Future Fuel for Road Freight - LBST · 2019-03-20 · Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019...

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Transcript of Future Fuel for Road Freight - LBST · 2019-03-20 · Lyon ∙ 6 March 2019...